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Susan Anderson

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1450 on: December 10, 2017, 04:47:02 PM »
I join the chorus of congratulations. I would also add that if you are dependent on a generator, there are more efficient ways to boil water than power-greedy microwaves, and small convection ovens use vastly less power. (I learned this to my distress during Sandy, though that was a paltry five days.) But the caution about generator use is something we can all take to heart.

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1451 on: December 13, 2017, 12:13:56 AM »
I have a gas stove for cooking, with 2 100 pounds tanks. That usually lasts about a year. Luckily I had no need to boil water. in case I did, at the beginning of the emergency I prepared a fire pit with cinder blocks. With all the branches and trees laying around I could probably boil water for a year. I still have thousands of pounds of wood. I wish I had a good use for it.

On generators. I have a small 2000W generator. That’s enough to run the refrigerator, a fan and lights for 7 hours on a gallon of gasoline. The good thing about such a small generator isn’t that when there was no gasoline available I could depend on my fuel supplies for several days. Also, about 2 gallons a day is relatively affordable in the long term. The bad thing is that it couldn’t run the water pump, which saves a lot of water, but it is a lot of extra work.

I learned a lot from the experience. Generators are a necessity but relying on them is not smart. They simply have too many moving parts requiring constant maintenance. They are also totally useless if there is no fuel available.

I think a very diverse setup might work well. A relatively large battery (a few KWh) with a decent sized solar array should power the refrigerator and larger loads during  daytime, leaving enough juice in the batteries for a few hours for night time. A generator should be used to charge the batteries on cloudy days. Solar should be used to warm water. For cooking fire wood or gas do nicely. Ideally, smaller batteries should be used in all powered tools and electronics providing additional storage capacity.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1452 on: December 16, 2017, 02:55:36 AM »
Puerto Rico, Day 86:
—Millions of people still w/o power
—Hundreds of thousands still w/o clean water
—Still a humanitarian emergency
Now, the @USACEHQ says it will be ~175 more days until power is fully restored. Unfathomable. ...
    https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/941675770916868096

“Puerto Rico’s electrical grid is unlikely to be fully restored until the end of May 2018”
“75% ...by the end of January.
That should rise to 95% by the end of February, and 100% by the end of May...more than eight months after Hurricane Maria hit.”
    https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/941352629774536704

Puerto Rico Grid Fix Won't Meet Governor's Plan, Corps Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-12-13/puerto-rico-grid-repair-won-t-meet-governor-s-pledge-corps-says

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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1453 on: December 16, 2017, 03:28:48 AM »
The most interesting reason I've heard for the delay is that there are no materials. There are no poles, no cables and many other of the many components of an electric grid. Crews are scavenging for materials among the wreckage.

I can think of many reasons  for the shortages.

1. Harvey, Irma, floods and fires are straining US supplies.
2. Low supply to begin with. Irma took a good chunk and the bankrupt monopoly was stream lining supply chains.
3. Horrible beurocracy that is slowing down the supply chain.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1454 on: December 16, 2017, 03:57:21 PM »
The most interesting reason I've heard for the delay is that there are no materials. There are no poles, no cables and many other of the many components of an electric grid. Crews are scavenging for materials among the wreckage.

I can think of many reasons  for the shortages.

1. Harvey, Irma, floods and fires are straining US supplies.
2. Low supply to begin with. Irma took a good chunk and the bankrupt monopoly was stream lining supply chains.
3. Horrible beurocracy that is slowing down the supply chain.

Functioning supply chains are the result of the magnificent infrastructure that has been created over the past century to support the system of global capitalism that we all take for granted. Sure, there are transitory degradations in the functioning of this supply chain such as financial crises, social unrest, even bureaucrats who are asleep at the wheel, but it is the destruction of this infrastructure that can have a lasting and often seemingly permanent impact on the supply chain. Puerto Rico has had just such an event.

Paradoxically, it takes functioning roads, electric grids and water systems to effect repairs on broken roads, electric grids and water systems.

Given the ever increasing disasters heading our way as a result of climate change, it is going to get...

...a...whole...lot...worse!
« Last Edit: December 17, 2017, 05:10:20 PM by Shared Humanity »

oren

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1455 on: December 16, 2017, 04:04:21 PM »
Very well said SH.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1456 on: December 16, 2017, 04:16:50 PM »
Very well said SH.

I have been posting here for several years. The only time I feel truly comfortable expressing my opinion is when I am explaining issues related to the economy, a direct result of a 35 year business career in manufacturing supported by an economics degree and MBA from the University of Chicago.

As a V.P. of Operations I was completely dependent on a functioning supply chain. Sure, I could have a poorly functioning purchasing department or west coast longshoreman strike gum up the works but it was the destructive plant fire from a key supplier that could really screw things up.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1457 on: December 16, 2017, 04:26:40 PM »
I am at my most frustrated here when I am having a discussion with someone who dismisses the horrific impact that widespread destruction of built environments caused by climate change will have on the system of global capitalism. This physical structure has taken centuries to construct, represents the only real accumulation of wealth that supports commerce and cannot be easily replaced.

Food for thought...

It took the British more than a century to build the infrastructure needed to integrate India into the emerging system of capitalism!

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1458 on: December 16, 2017, 07:55:38 PM »
I am at my most frustrated here when I am having a discussion with someone who dismisses the horrific impact that widespread destruction of built environments caused by climate change will have on the system of global capitalism. This physical structure has taken centuries to construct, represents the only real accumulation of wealth that supports commerce and cannot be easily replaced.

Food for thought...

It took the British more than a century to build the infrastructure needed to integrate India into the emerging system of capitalism!

Tesla missed its 2016 delivery targets (with all the adverse effects that brings) due to a couple thousand of its cars sitting on ships outside the Chinese harbor in December because the smog made visibility too poor to allow ships to enter the harbor.  Just one more example of climate change disrupting capitalism.

More immediately than even sea level rise mitigation, tropical ports will need to be made hurricane-proof to survive.
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TerryM

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1459 on: December 16, 2017, 08:45:40 PM »

More immediately than even sea level rise mitigation, tropical ports will need to be made hurricane-proof to survive.


Is a "hurricane-proof" port even a possibility?


With ever advancing sea levels, could that level of protection ever be financially justified?


Could redundant ports rather than resilient port structures provide the flexibility needed ahead?
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1460 on: December 17, 2017, 03:10:11 AM »
Tropical Storm Urduja will continue to unleash life-threatening flooding rain and mudslides as it crosses the Philippines into Monday

Urduja unloads over 1000 mm of rain on Philippines; Life-threatening flood risk continues into Monday
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/philippines-to-face-days-of-life-threatening-flooding-from-tropical-storm-urduja/70003544
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Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1461 on: December 17, 2017, 03:26:43 PM »

More immediately than even sea level rise mitigation, tropical ports will need to be made hurricane-proof to survive.


Is a "hurricane-proof" port even a possibility?


With ever advancing sea levels, could that level of protection ever be financially justified?


Could redundant ports rather than resilient port structures provide the flexibility needed ahead?
Terry

At this time, the answer is no.  This probably will not change in the future.  Multiple ports makes the most sense, as the best backup plan, provided they are sufficiently far from each other.

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1462 on: December 17, 2017, 03:38:33 PM »
Delayed and Without Resources: Puerto Rico’s Police Did Little to Investigate Missing Persons After Hurricane María

http://www.latinorebels.com/2017/12/17/delayed-and-without-resources-puerto-ricos-police-did-little-to-investigate-missing-persons-after-hurricane-maria/

45 still missing and the Secretary of public safety still claims there is no reason to investigate. The legislation presented to investigate the number of deaths and disappeared was defeated.

I thank the federal government and Trump for killing PR with new taxes. We deserve it.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1463 on: December 17, 2017, 04:04:48 PM »

More immediately than even sea level rise mitigation, tropical ports will need to be made hurricane-proof to survive.


Is a "hurricane-proof" port even a possibility?


With ever advancing sea levels, could that level of protection ever be financially justified?


Could redundant ports rather than resilient port structures provide the flexibility needed ahead?
Terry

At this time, the answer is no.  This probably will not change in the future.  Multiple ports makes the most sense, as the best backup plan, provided they are sufficiently far from each other.

It is not so simple. Pick any port on the planet and what you will find is a vast infrastructure surrounding it worth trillions of dollars that transports the goods and materials that flow in and out of the port, often for thousands of miles. The physical infrastructure that spans the globe is a massive network and ports are the most embedded nodes of this network. Lose one port and you disrupt the flow of all of the goods and materials that flow in and out. Build a port that is far from the existing port and it will be isolated from this dense infrastructure network that has, in some cases, taken centuries to construct. Even more fundamentally, the ports are where they are because nature decided where to put them.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2017, 05:18:46 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1464 on: December 17, 2017, 04:34:22 PM »
Lets look at Houston and the other Gulf coast ports. On average, 3.5 million barrels or 70% of U.S. oil imports flow through these ports daily and they are the most vulnerable ports in the U.S.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_MOVE_IMPCP_A2_R30_EPC0_IP0_MBBLPD_M.htm

50% of the U.S. refining infrastructure is located in this region and the transport infrastructure (pipelines) fanning out from the coast serves the entire country except the west coast and most of Canada.

https://www.eia.gov/special/gulf_of_mexico/

One group of vulnerable ports and a single very fundamental commodity.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1465 on: December 17, 2017, 05:05:00 PM »
So lets assume we will no longer be consuming any products made from oil in a couple of decades and thus need not worry about these ports. Not so fast. 43% of U.S. agriculture exports depend on these ports with New Orleans accounting for the bulk of this (36%). So why is New Orleans so dominant? The bulk of these products are transported by barge down the Mississippi, natures very own network. Good luck moving the Mississippi River to the new port you will be constructing.

https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/PortProfiles2017.pdf
« Last Edit: December 17, 2017, 05:19:44 PM by Shared Humanity »

TerryM

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1466 on: December 17, 2017, 08:27:41 PM »
Is China's New Silk Road Initiative being designed to solve these problems for the vast majority of the world?


As I understand it the NSR will link Africa, and India, to China, Russia and Europe ,with no need for seaports that are subject to problems linked to sea level rise.
Once the new routes are viable, they immediately provide redundancy. If the NSR should prove to be more economical & the present ports eventually fall into disrepair, the rail links may still be more diffused and less dependent on major transportation hubs dangerously close to sea level.


North, Central, and South America could design a competitive, land based transportation system, but geography won't be on our side. Piping crude from Alaska to the Gulf is being done, but moving goods from Rio to Toronto by rail might never prove to be practical.
Terry

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1467 on: December 21, 2017, 02:33:19 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1468 on: December 21, 2017, 07:06:52 PM »

More immediately than even sea level rise mitigation, tropical ports will need to be made hurricane-proof to survive.


Is a "hurricane-proof" port even a possibility?


With ever advancing sea levels, could that level of protection ever be financially justified?


Could redundant ports rather than resilient port structures provide the flexibility needed ahead?
Terry

At this time, the answer is no.  This probably will not change in the future.  Multiple ports makes the most sense, as the best backup plan, provided they are sufficiently far from each other.

It is not so simple. Pick any port on the planet and what you will find is a vast infrastructure surrounding it worth trillions of dollars that transports the goods and materials that flow in and out of the port, often for thousands of miles. The physical infrastructure that spans the globe is a massive network and ports are the most embedded nodes of this network. Lose one port and you disrupt the flow of all of the goods and materials that flow in and out. Build a port that is far from the existing port and it will be isolated from this dense infrastructure network that has, in some cases, taken centuries to construct. Even more fundamentally, the ports are where they are because nature decided where to put them.

We are talking about a short-term disruption.  The port of Houston was closed for 7 days after hurricane Harvey.  Other ports have been less, with the exception of New Orleans in 2005.  NOLA was able to handle much of the traffic that was diverted from Houston during its closure.  This is what I was referring too earlier.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1469 on: December 21, 2017, 08:30:59 PM »
Thousands of power poles leaving Port Canaveral for hurricane-ravaged Puerto Rico
http://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/local/2017/12/20/tens-thousands-power-poles-leaving-port-canaveral-hurricane-ravaged-puerto-rico/967095001/

Quote
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says that they estimate that the power will not be fully restored in Puerto Rico until the end of May.
https://twitter.com/francesrobles/status/943555055831146497

"Most" people will have power back by the end of February, but hard to reach remote areas will take about another three months.

So let's get our calendars out and do the math: that means rural, mountain areas of Puerto Rico are expected to go without power for eight months.

Some materials ordered 45-60 days ago to help repair the grid are just arriving now.

They need 50,000 electrical poles and ordered 1 million feet of cable. (about 60% of the 30,000 miles of power line was affected by the storm.)

Lares, Utuado and Adjuntas are going to take the longest.

Twelve thousand electrical poles have been delivered to Puerto Rico. They need 50,000.



December 19:
Puerto Rico, Day 90:
—Millions of people still w/o power
—Hundreds of thousands still w/o clean water
—Still a humanitarian emergency
The Puerto Rico blackout is now more than double the size of the previous largest blackout in U.S. history:
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/943159862288101376
Image below
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1470 on: December 29, 2017, 06:19:01 PM »
"A Florida spokesman for the Federal Emergency Management Agency said it wasn’t clear why the food was never sent to Puerto Rico."

50,000 pounds of food intended for Puerto Rico will now aid evacuees in Central Florida
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/puerto-rico-hurricane-recovery/os-puerto-rican-evacuees-food-donations-20171226-story,amp.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1471 on: December 29, 2017, 06:55:51 PM »
Puerto Rico, Day 100:
—More than a million people still w/o power
—Hundreds of thousands still w/o clean water
—Still a humanitarian emergency

100 days.
More than anything else that's happened this year, Trump's neglect of Puerto Rico is a cruel tragedy.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/946771806689611776


The hurricane in Puerto Rico has become a man-made disaster, with a death toll threatening to eclipse Katrina’s.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/12/hurricane-maria-man-made-disaster.html
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1473 on: December 30, 2017, 05:30:24 PM »
Puerto Rico, and the handling of the hurricane is without a doubt a disaster of epic proportions. Could it also offer us a glimpse of life without the grid?


I live on the 16th floor of a 17 floor building. When the elevator ceases to elevate, water isn't pumped this high, and the refrigerator needs to be tossed, most of my building becomes uninhabitable. How did people in my circumstances survive in Puerto Rico?


My city is surrounded by old order Amish and Mennonite farmers. Will their crops and stores be respected when the power goes out? Do the farmers and merchants hoard their food, or find some method of sharing? How was this problem dealt with in Puerto Rico?


I could go on for a long time, but imagine that my point has been made.


Archimid is my only contact with the island and I'm sure he has better things to do than to answer an old man's queries. However, even a little first hand knowledge could help those who might be involved in another disaster in the not too distant future.


Terry

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1474 on: December 31, 2017, 04:52:52 PM »
The 2017 Pacific Typhoon Season Saves its Worst for Last: 240 Killed in the Philippines
Quote
The relatively inactive 2017 Northwest Pacific typhoon season saved its worst for last, as the final storm of the year, Typhoon Tembin, was also the deadliest. Tembin hit the southern Philippines island of Mindanao as a tropical storm on December 22, dumping torrential rains that triggered devastating flash floods and mudslides. According to Philippines news source rappler.com, Tembin (called Vinta in the Philippines) killed 240 people and left 107 missing. This death toll surpasses the 114 killed by Typhoon Damrey in the Philippines and Vietnam in November as the deadliest tropical cyclone in the world in 2017 (though indirect deaths in the Caribbean from Hurricane Maria have been estimated to exceed 1,000.) Fortunately, Tembin weakened to a tropical depression before brushing Vietnam on Monday, causing no deaths or major damage there.

There may still be one more named storm in the Northwest Pacific this year, though. The Tuesday morning runs of both the GFS and European models predicted that a tropical storm would form in the waters a few hundred miles east of the Philippines this weekend, with the storm making landfall in the southern Philippines on New Year’s Day. ...
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/2017-pacific-typhoon-season-saves-its-worst-last-240-killed-philippines
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1475 on: December 31, 2017, 07:41:38 PM »
Days after the hurricane, as the extent of the damage became known, the Wall Street Journal reported that, if it took too long to rebuild the infrastructure that is the basis for modern living, there would be an influx of up to 600,000 from Puerto Rico who would permanently relocate to the U.S. It is happening as I type.

http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-puerto-rico-meeting-20171130-story.html

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/os-puerto-rico-evacuees-still-flooding-into-orlando-20171205-story.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/no-power-in-puerto-rico-evacuees-come-to-orlando-and-find-scant-housing-1510935425

On a positive note, this migration will result in Florida becoming a reliably Blue state.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1476 on: December 31, 2017, 07:54:31 PM »
So, why will it be a permanent relocation? Why can't we make them go back to Puerto Rico? (a local Trumpista worried query) Simply put, as Puerto Ricans settle into their new homes around the country, they simply will not consider a move back and much of Puerto Rico will never be rebuilt.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1477 on: January 01, 2018, 12:59:27 AM »
...
On a positive note, this migration will result in Florida becoming a reliably Blue state.

Not just Florida....

Puerto Rico’s governor is calling on Puerto Ricans in the U.S. to help vote Republicans out of office.  He “figures they can sway congressional district votes in 14 states, including Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas. He pointed to the influence of Florida’s 2.7 million Cuban-Americans, a powerful and well-organized constituency.”
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/20/puerto-rico-governor-tax-bill-midterms-245870
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1478 on: January 01, 2018, 09:55:52 AM »
So, why will it be a permanent relocation? Why can't we make them go back to Puerto Rico? (a local Trumpista worried query) Simply put, as Puerto Ricans settle into their new homes around the country, they simply will not consider a move back and much of Puerto Rico will never be rebuilt.

They did steal 90 billion usd. So should we not find out where the people that moved from Puerto Rico to the mainland in the last 10 years got that money from ?  The majority of them will end up in jail. A corrupted cesspool, is that your definition of a reliable blue state ? That's exactly what is destroying our climate.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2018, 10:04:17 AM by Alexander555 »

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1479 on: January 01, 2018, 01:44:07 PM »
Puerto Rico, and the handling of the hurricane is without a doubt a disaster of epic proportions. Could it also offer us a glimpse of life without the grid?

I think so. It is also a very good example of the vulnerability of fossil fuel supply lines.
Quote
I live on the 16th floor of a 17 floor building. When the elevator ceases to elevate, water isn't pumped this high, and the refrigerator needs to be tossed, most of my building becomes uninhabitable. How did people in my circumstances survive in Puerto Rico?

Frankly, I don't how they did it, but I'm sure it wasn't pretty.
 
 I imagine the first choice for someone living in a high rise without power is to flee, but that is not an option for everyone.Anyone that stays must be prepared to do a lot of extra work, Just carrying all their water is going to be difficult. On top of that living in the dark, in rooms that are too hot, without a refrigerator, without propper hygiene must be miserable.

Quote
My city is surrounded by old order Amish and Mennonite farmers. Will their crops and stores be respected when the power goes out? Do the farmers and merchants hoard their food, or find some method of sharing? How was this problem dealt with in Puerto Rico?

I guess that is a local problem. Here the big things were generator theft and carjackings. I know that looting was also a thing at the begining of the emergency  Farmers and merchants didn't stop selling their goods, on the contrary, they tried to sell whatever remained from their crops, even if they didnt have power.
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1480 on: January 01, 2018, 03:20:36 PM »
So, why will it be a permanent relocation? Why can't we make them go back to Puerto Rico? (a local Trumpista worried query) Simply put, as Puerto Ricans settle into their new homes around the country, they simply will not consider a move back and much of Puerto Rico will never be rebuilt.

They did steal 90 billion usd. So should we not find out where the people that moved from Puerto Rico to the mainland in the last 10 years got that money from ?  The majority of them will end up in jail. A corrupted cesspool, is that your definition of a reliable blue state ? That's exactly what is destroying our climate.
Some people stole a load of money. Most of those leaving Puerto Rico got nothing - indeed their taxes were stolen or badly used by a corrupt and useless administration. They are leaving because there is no future for them and their kids in the economic wreckage that is Puerto Rico. They are US citizens so they have the right to live any where in the US of A.

The majority will not end up in jail. Such sweeping statements are not helpful and are totally unjustified.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2018, 03:34:14 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1481 on: January 15, 2018, 08:47:34 PM »
I have asked Neven for a 2018 thread so I can plonk things like this in it. ( I do not have the temerity to open threads without a Governor's OK.)

'Tis the third wind to affect this bit of the Indian Ocean this year.

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
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Neven

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1482 on: January 15, 2018, 09:27:40 PM »
Continue here.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin