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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #600 on: November 27, 2017, 03:18:19 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +7.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #601 on: November 27, 2017, 06:24:35 PM »
Per the following weekly Nino index values and the first two plots issued by NOAA today for the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively, and the last two images issued today by the BoM for the Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices, respectively, we are fluctuating within the band of weak La Nina conditions:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 11OCT2017     19.5-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.1
 18OCT2017     19.5-1.4     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
 25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2
 01NOV2017     20.4-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.1
 08NOV2017     20.2-1.2     23.8-1.2     25.6-1.1     28.3-0.3
 15NOV2017     20.6-1.0     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.4
 22NOV2017     20.6-1.2     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.5-0.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #602 on: November 27, 2017, 06:28:14 PM »
The four attached weekly Nino index plots thru the week ending Nov 26 2017, were issued today by the BoM for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, and all indicate that ENSO conditions are fluctuating within the weak La Nina range:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #603 on: November 28, 2017, 02:26:50 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #604 on: November 29, 2017, 02:35:05 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +9.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #605 on: November 30, 2017, 02:30:48 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +9.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #606 on: December 01, 2017, 02:45:30 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +10.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #607 on: December 02, 2017, 02:29:29 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +11.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #608 on: December 03, 2017, 02:30:45 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +11.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #609 on: December 04, 2017, 02:27:37 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +11.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #610 on: December 04, 2017, 06:58:47 PM »
Per the following weekly Nino indices data by NOAA thru the week centered on Nov 29 2017, and the first two weekly plots issued today by the BoM for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, indices, respectively; and the last two plots of NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and SSTA Evolution, respectively: ENSO conditions remain in a weak La Nina state, with hints of possible future warming.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 30AUG2017     20.3-0.2     24.5-0.4     26.5-0.2     28.8 0.2
 06SEP2017     20.4-0.1     24.3-0.6     26.2-0.6     28.7 0.1
 13SEP2017     19.7-0.7     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.7 0.0
 20SEP2017     19.3-1.1     23.9-1.0     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.0
 27SEP2017     19.5-1.0     24.4-0.5     26.5-0.2     28.4-0.2
 04OCT2017     19.3-1.4     24.7-0.2     26.7 0.0     28.7 0.1
 11OCT2017     19.5-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.1
 18OCT2017     19.5-1.4     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
 25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2
 01NOV2017     20.4-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.1
 08NOV2017     20.2-1.2     23.8-1.2     25.6-1.1     28.3-0.3
 15NOV2017     20.6-1.0     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.4
 22NOV2017     20.6-1.2     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.5-0.1
 29NOV2017     20.8-1.3     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.7     28.5 0.0
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #611 on: December 04, 2017, 07:01:18 PM »
The four attached weekly Nino plots were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending Dec 3 2017, and show the Nino 1, 2,3 & 4 indices respectively.  This information indicates fluctuating weak La Nina conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #612 on: December 05, 2017, 03:07:13 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +11.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #613 on: December 06, 2017, 02:40:25 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +10.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #614 on: December 07, 2017, 02:39:35 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +10.6:

Also per the following quote issued today, the BoM has now declared La Nina conditions:

"The Bureau’s ENSO Outlook has been raised to LA NIÑA, indicating that the tropical Pacific has reached La Niña levels. Climate models suggest this La Niña will be weak and short-lived, persisting until early southern autumn 2018."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #615 on: December 09, 2017, 02:16:59 AM »
Yesterday's SOI that I did not post was +11.0 and per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +11.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #616 on: December 10, 2017, 02:27:24 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +11.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #617 on: December 11, 2017, 02:28:39 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +11.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #618 on: December 11, 2017, 05:17:59 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data, the first two NOAA Eq Pac plots issued today for the Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively, and the last two weekly BoM plots thru the week ending Dec 10 for the Nino 3.4, and the IOD, indices, respectively; the ENSO condition continues to fluctuate in a weak La Nina mode.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 18OCT2017     19.5-1.4     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
 25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2
 01NOV2017     20.4-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.1
 08NOV2017     20.2-1.2     23.8-1.2     25.6-1.1     28.3-0.3
 15NOV2017     20.6-1.0     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.4
 22NOV2017     20.6-1.2     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.5-0.1
 29NOV2017     20.8-1.3     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.7     28.5 0.0
 06DEC2017     20.8-1.6     24.1-1.0     25.7-0.8     28.2-0.3
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #619 on: December 11, 2017, 05:20:12 PM »
The BoM issued today the four attached weekly Nino plots thru the week ending Dec 10 2017, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This data indicates that weak La Nina ENSO conditions continue:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #620 on: December 12, 2017, 02:32:17 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +11.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #621 on: December 13, 2017, 02:31:19 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +10.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #622 on: December 14, 2017, 03:39:29 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +9.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #623 on: December 15, 2017, 02:49:19 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +9.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #624 on: December 15, 2017, 07:36:25 PM »
The linked reference studies the IPO behavior focused on CMIP5 simulations and confirms the importance of correctly modeling the" Tropical-extratropical interactions via both an 'atmospheric bridge' and 'oceanic tunnel' mechanisms:

Benjamin J Henley et al (2017), "Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model
simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation", Environ. Res. Lett. 12 044011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5cc8

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5cc8/pdf

Extract: "Tropical-extratropical interactions via an atmospheric ‘bridge’ (Newman et al 2016) and oceanic ‘tunnel’ (Farneti et al 2014) are likely component mechanisms that contribute to the decadal-scale variability evident in the IPO and PDO indices."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #625 on: December 16, 2017, 02:36:12 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +7.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #626 on: December 17, 2017, 02:27:19 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +6.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #627 on: December 18, 2017, 02:37:24 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +6.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #628 on: December 18, 2017, 07:01:57 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on Dec 13 2017; on the first two NOAA images of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two BoM images for the Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices respectively, thru the week ending Dec 17 2017; the ENSO remains in a weak La Nina condition:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 11OCT2017     19.5-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.1
 18OCT2017     19.5-1.4     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
 25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2
 01NOV2017     20.4-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.1
 08NOV2017     20.2-1.2     23.8-1.2     25.6-1.1     28.3-0.3
 15NOV2017     20.6-1.0     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.4
 22NOV2017     20.6-1.2     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.5-0.1
 29NOV2017     20.8-1.3     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.7     28.5 0.0
 06DEC2017     20.8-1.6     24.1-1.0     25.7-0.8     28.2-0.3
 13DEC2017     21.3-1.3     24.0-1.1     25.8-0.8     28.1-0.3
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #629 on: December 18, 2017, 07:04:28 PM »
The four attached weekly Nino plots thru the week ending Dec 17 2017; were all issued today by the BoM and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  These plots indicate that the ENSO remains in a weak La Nina condition:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #630 on: December 19, 2017, 02:27:55 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +4.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #631 on: December 20, 2017, 03:02:20 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #632 on: December 21, 2017, 03:42:48 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #633 on: December 22, 2017, 03:00:42 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +3.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #634 on: December 23, 2017, 07:52:21 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #635 on: December 24, 2017, 10:07:52 AM »
As there's clearly interest in the behavior of ENSO wrt SOI, the following blog report could be of interest :
contextearth.com/2017/12/23/nino34-vs-soi/
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #636 on: December 24, 2017, 06:17:43 PM »
Per the attached plot issuedyesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI rapidly moved down to +2.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #637 on: December 25, 2017, 02:48:58 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +1.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #638 on: December 27, 2017, 02:26:36 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #639 on: December 27, 2017, 03:32:04 AM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on Dec 20 2017, the first two NOAA Eq Pac plots issued today showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolutions, respectively; and the last two images issued by the BoM showing weekly data thru the week ending Dec 24 2017 showing the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively; the ENSO remains in a weak La Nina condition:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2
 01NOV2017     20.4-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.1
 08NOV2017     20.2-1.2     23.8-1.2     25.6-1.1     28.3-0.3
 15NOV2017     20.6-1.0     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.4
 22NOV2017     20.6-1.2     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.5-0.1
 29NOV2017     20.8-1.3     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.7     28.5 0.0
 06DEC2017     20.8-1.6     24.1-1.0     25.7-0.8     28.2-0.3
 13DEC2017     21.3-1.3     24.0-1.1     25.8-0.8     28.1-0.3
 20DEC2017     21.6-1.4     23.8-1.4     25.6-1.0     28.1-0.3

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #640 on: December 27, 2017, 03:35:06 AM »
The four attached weekly Nino plots with data thru the week ending Dec 24 2017 were issued by the BoM for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; and collectively indicate that the ENSO remains in a weak La Nina condition:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #641 on: December 28, 2017, 02:28:06 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -0.1:

20171127,20171226,-0.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

oren

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #642 on: December 28, 2017, 10:18:27 AM »
The 30-day SOI hasn't been negative for almost half a year. It seems to be signalling that our weak La Nina may be losing steam and could be on its way out.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #643 on: December 29, 2017, 02:28:01 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -0.1:

20171128,20171227,-0.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #644 on: December 30, 2017, 02:27:21 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -1.2:

20171129,20171228,-1.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #645 on: December 31, 2017, 02:24:34 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -1.3:

20171130,20171229,-1.3
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #646 on: January 01, 2018, 02:18:46 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -1.9:

20171201,20171230,-1.9
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #647 on: January 01, 2018, 07:35:56 PM »
Due to the New Years holiday, only limited ENSO data is available today; however, the following NOAA data/plot indicate that the current ENSO condition remains in a weak (& likely weakening) La Nina condition:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 15NOV2017     20.6-1.0     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.4
 22NOV2017     20.6-1.2     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.5-0.1
 29NOV2017     20.8-1.3     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.7     28.5 0.0
 06DEC2017     20.8-1.6     24.1-1.0     25.7-0.8     28.2-0.3
 13DEC2017     21.3-1.3     24.0-1.1     25.8-0.8     28.1-0.3
 20DEC2017     21.6-1.4     23.8-1.4     25.6-1.0     28.1-0.3
 27DEC2017     22.1-1.3     24.4-0.9     26.0-0.6     28.2-0.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #648 on: January 01, 2018, 07:46:17 PM »
I've really appreciated your Monday updates, ASLR.  (And I'll work on 'hearing'/applying your plea on another thread.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #649 on: January 02, 2018, 04:43:12 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -1.9:

20171201,20171230,-1.9
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson