2017 ENSO

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +7.1:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following weekly Nino index values and the first two plots issued by NOAA today for the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively, and the last two images issued today by the BoM for the Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices, respectively, we are fluctuating within the band of weak La Nina conditions:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 11OCT2017     19.5-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.1
 18OCT2017     19.5-1.4     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
 25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2
 01NOV2017     20.4-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.1
 08NOV2017     20.2-1.2     23.8-1.2     25.6-1.1     28.3-0.3
 15NOV2017     20.6-1.0     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.4
 22NOV2017     20.6-1.2     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.5-0.1

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached weekly Nino index plots thru the week ending Nov 26 2017, were issued today by the BoM for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, and all indicate that ENSO conditions are fluctuating within the weak La Nina range:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.8:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +9.1:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +9.8:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +10.5:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +11.8:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +11.6:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +11.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following weekly Nino indices data by NOAA thru the week centered on Nov 29 2017, and the first two weekly plots issued today by the BoM for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, indices, respectively; and the last two plots of NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and SSTA Evolution, respectively: ENSO conditions remain in a weak La Nina state, with hints of possible future warming.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 30AUG2017     20.3-0.2     24.5-0.4     26.5-0.2     28.8 0.2
 06SEP2017     20.4-0.1     24.3-0.6     26.2-0.6     28.7 0.1
 13SEP2017     19.7-0.7     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.7 0.0
 20SEP2017     19.3-1.1     23.9-1.0     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.0
 27SEP2017     19.5-1.0     24.4-0.5     26.5-0.2     28.4-0.2
 04OCT2017     19.3-1.4     24.7-0.2     26.7 0.0     28.7 0.1
 11OCT2017     19.5-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.1
 18OCT2017     19.5-1.4     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
 25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2
 01NOV2017     20.4-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.1
 08NOV2017     20.2-1.2     23.8-1.2     25.6-1.1     28.3-0.3
 15NOV2017     20.6-1.0     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.4
 22NOV2017     20.6-1.2     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.5-0.1
 29NOV2017     20.8-1.3     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.7     28.5 0.0

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached weekly Nino plots were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending Dec 3 2017, and show the Nino 1, 2,3 & 4 indices respectively.  This information indicates fluctuating weak La Nina conditions:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +11.1:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +10.9:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +10.6:

Also per the following quote issued today, the BoM has now declared La Nina conditions:

"The Bureau’s ENSO Outlook has been raised to LA NIÑA, indicating that the tropical Pacific has reached La Niña levels. Climate models suggest this La Niña will be weak and short-lived, persisting until early southern autumn 2018."

[AbruptSLR]

Yesterday's SOI that I did not post was +11.0 and per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +11.5:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +11.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +11.6:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data, the first two NOAA Eq Pac plots issued today for the Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively, and the last two weekly BoM plots thru the week ending Dec 10 for the Nino 3.4, and the IOD, indices, respectively; the ENSO condition continues to fluctuate in a weak La Nina mode.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 18OCT2017     19.5-1.4     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
 25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2
 01NOV2017     20.4-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.1
 08NOV2017     20.2-1.2     23.8-1.2     25.6-1.1     28.3-0.3
 15NOV2017     20.6-1.0     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.4
 22NOV2017     20.6-1.2     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.5-0.1
 29NOV2017     20.8-1.3     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.7     28.5 0.0
 06DEC2017     20.8-1.6     24.1-1.0     25.7-0.8     28.2-0.3

[AbruptSLR]

The BoM issued today the four attached weekly Nino plots thru the week ending Dec 10 2017, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This data indicates that weak La Nina ENSO conditions continue:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +11.4:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +10.6:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +9.8:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +9.0:

[AbruptSLR]

The linked reference studies the IPO behavior focused on CMIP5 simulations and confirms the importance of correctly modeling the" Tropical-extratropical interactions via both an 'atmospheric bridge' and 'oceanic tunnel' mechanisms:

Benjamin J Henley et al (2017), "Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model
simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation", Environ. Res. Lett. 12 044011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5cc8

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5cc8/pdf

Extract: "Tropical-extratropical interactions via an atmospheric ‘bridge’ (Newman et al 2016) and oceanic ‘tunnel’ (Farneti et al 2014) are likely component mechanisms that contribute to the decadal-scale variability evident in the IPO and PDO indices."

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +7.7:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +6.9:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +6.2:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on Dec 13 2017; on the first two NOAA images of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two BoM images for the Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices respectively, thru the week ending Dec 17 2017; the ENSO remains in a weak La Nina condition:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 11OCT2017     19.5-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.1
 18OCT2017     19.5-1.4     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
 25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2
 01NOV2017     20.4-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.1
 08NOV2017     20.2-1.2     23.8-1.2     25.6-1.1     28.3-0.3
 15NOV2017     20.6-1.0     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.4
 22NOV2017     20.6-1.2     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.5-0.1
 29NOV2017     20.8-1.3     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.7     28.5 0.0
 06DEC2017     20.8-1.6     24.1-1.0     25.7-0.8     28.2-0.3
 13DEC2017     21.3-1.3     24.0-1.1     25.8-0.8     28.1-0.3

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached weekly Nino plots thru the week ending Dec 17 2017; were all issued today by the BoM and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  These plots indicate that the ENSO remains in a weak La Nina condition:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +4.9:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.8:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.1:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +3.9:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.2:

[Pmt111500]

As there's clearly interest in the behavior of ENSO wrt SOI, the following blog report could be of interest :
contextearth.com/2017/12/23/nino34-vs-soi/

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issuedyesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI rapidly moved down to +2.0:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +1.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.6:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on Dec 20 2017, the first two NOAA Eq Pac plots issued today showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolutions, respectively; and the last two images issued by the BoM showing weekly data thru the week ending Dec 24 2017 showing the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively; the ENSO remains in a weak La Nina condition:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2
 01NOV2017     20.4-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.1
 08NOV2017     20.2-1.2     23.8-1.2     25.6-1.1     28.3-0.3
 15NOV2017     20.6-1.0     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.4
 22NOV2017     20.6-1.2     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.5-0.1
 29NOV2017     20.8-1.3     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.7     28.5 0.0
 06DEC2017     20.8-1.6     24.1-1.0     25.7-0.8     28.2-0.3
 13DEC2017     21.3-1.3     24.0-1.1     25.8-0.8     28.1-0.3
 20DEC2017     21.6-1.4     23.8-1.4     25.6-1.0     28.1-0.3

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached weekly Nino plots with data thru the week ending Dec 24 2017 were issued by the BoM for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; and collectively indicate that the ENSO remains in a weak La Nina condition:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -0.1:

20171127,20171226,-0.1

[oren]

The 30-day SOI hasn't been negative for almost half a year. It seems to be signalling that our weak La Nina may be losing steam and could be on its way out.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -0.1:

20171128,20171227,-0.1

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -1.2:

20171129,20171228,-1.2

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -1.3:

20171130,20171229,-1.3

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -1.9:

20171201,20171230,-1.9

[AbruptSLR]

Due to the New Years holiday, only limited ENSO data is available today; however, the following NOAA data/plot indicate that the current ENSO condition remains in a weak (& likely weakening) La Nina condition:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 15NOV2017     20.6-1.0     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.4
 22NOV2017     20.6-1.2     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.5-0.1
 29NOV2017     20.8-1.3     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.7     28.5 0.0
 06DEC2017     20.8-1.6     24.1-1.0     25.7-0.8     28.2-0.3
 13DEC2017     21.3-1.3     24.0-1.1     25.8-0.8     28.1-0.3
 20DEC2017     21.6-1.4     23.8-1.4     25.6-1.0     28.1-0.3
 27DEC2017     22.1-1.3     24.4-0.9     26.0-0.6     28.2-0.2

[Tor Bejnar]

I've really appreciated your Monday updates, ASLR.  (And I'll work on 'hearing'/applying your plea on another thread.)

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -1.9:

20171201,20171230,-1.9