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Author Topic: 2017 ENSO  (Read 103761 times)

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #650 on: January 02, 2018, 04:44:52 AM »
I've really appreciated your Monday updates, ASLR.  (And I'll work on 'hearing'/applying your plea on another thread.)

Glad to be of service.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #651 on: January 03, 2018, 02:44:58 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving SOI average has drifted up to -1.6:

20171203,20180101,-1.6
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #652 on: January 04, 2018, 03:09:04 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving SOI average has drifted down to -1.8:

20171204,20180102,-1.8
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #653 on: January 05, 2018, 03:57:02 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving SOI average has drifted down to -1.9:

20171205,20180103,-1.9
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #654 on: January 05, 2018, 10:17:58 PM »
Time for a “2018 ENSO” thread?  ;)

La Niña firmly in control of eastern tropical Pacific. Updated past 2+ years of Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and IRI/CPC forecast for 2018. #LaNina
https://mobile.twitter.com/EricHolthaus/lists/breaking-weather
Image below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #655 on: January 05, 2018, 11:04:29 PM »
Well, La Niña should start to weaken considerably in a coupke of weeks or so. The warm pool in the West Pacific is according to Australian BOM a possible precursor to an end of the current event.

From ENSO wrap-up by January 3 at BOM:

"However, a build-up of warmer water beneath the surface of the western Pacific may be a precursor to the end of this event in the coming months."

The rest of 2018 should most likely be a neutral year or maybe with a weak El Niño depending on how quick La Niña weakens and vanish. If 2018 ends up being neutral I'm quite sure we'll see a moderate-strong El Niño emerging in 2019. And yes, that should mean that either 2019 or 2020 will have a ggod chance to end up being the warmest year on record.