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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #200 on: March 30, 2017, 03:54:33 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +5.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #201 on: March 30, 2017, 04:38:58 PM »
Climate Prediction Center - National Centers for Environmental Prediction - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov remains bullish on El Niño appearing this year.  Of course "bullish about the future" is different from El Niño has arrived.

Monthly:

Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #202 on: March 31, 2017, 03:25:59 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +6.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Susan Anderson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #203 on: March 31, 2017, 07:35:39 AM »
I've posted this terrific Earth Observatory piece elsewhere; it seems interesting enough to repeat. I saw mention of a "mini" ENSO around the Chile area as well.

There's a half minute video if you scroll down. Underwater El Nino video of heat travel.  Gorgeous stuff.
"Under the Surface of El Niño" March 21, 2017
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=89846&src=eoa-iotd

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #204 on: April 01, 2017, 05:31:52 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +5.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #205 on: April 02, 2017, 03:29:46 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +5.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #206 on: April 03, 2017, 03:29:36 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +5.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

TerryM

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #207 on: April 03, 2017, 05:51:48 AM »
ASLR
Do we need a new definition for El Nino in response to the huge damage now being done in the East Pacific near the equator this year? Even in California El Nino and La Nina weather patterns seem skewed.
Could global warming simply be overwhelming these previously useful prognosticating tools?
Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #208 on: April 03, 2017, 04:49:20 PM »
Per the following NOAA data and the attached plots, the ENSO is still neutral (although the Eastern Eq Pacific is atypically warm):



                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 01FEB2017     26.8 1.5     26.4 0.4     26.4-0.3     27.9-0.3
 08FEB2017     27.2 1.5     26.9 0.7     26.8 0.1     27.9-0.2
 15FEB2017     27.7 1.6     27.1 0.7     26.9 0.2     28.1 0.0
 22FEB2017     28.5 2.3     27.3 0.7     27.1 0.3     28.0-0.1
 01MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.1 0.4     26.9 0.0     28.1-0.1
 08MAR2017     28.5 2.1     27.4 0.4     26.8-0.2     27.8-0.3
 15MAR2017     29.1 2.6     27.9 0.8     27.5 0.3     28.2 0.0
 22MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.8 0.6     27.5 0.2     28.2-0.1
 29MAR2017     27.8 1.8     28.1 0.8     27.7 0.3     28.3 0.0
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #209 on: April 03, 2017, 04:51:55 PM »
The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM for the weekly Nino indices thru the week ending April 2, 2017, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  They indicate neutral ENSO conditions (with an atypically warm Nino 2 index).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #210 on: April 03, 2017, 05:19:28 PM »
I would like to STRONGLY urge you all to look at this GFS forecast as Lewi Cowan has put up:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/848651299327549440

From Tropical Tidbits (courtesy Lewi Cowan) you can look at the whole scenario:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&pkg=Tocean_eqx

Here is the forecast for June and September, and remark this, from my perspective, the scenario is calling for a RETROGRADE El Niño with a big cold pool in the Western Pacific and a warm dito in the East Pacific(!!!):




AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #211 on: April 03, 2017, 05:23:51 PM »
Quote
ASLR
Do we need a new definition for El Nino in response to the huge damage now being done in the East Pacific near the equator this year? Even in California El Nino and La Nina weather patterns seem skewed.
Could global warming simply be overwhelming these previously useful prognosticating tools?
Terry

Terry,

I do not know why the Nino 1 & Nino 2 regions are so warm; but my apprehension is that as global warming continues and the oceans continue to warm, that the Eastern Equatorial Pacific will/is warming faster than the average ocean increase.  I believe that this has been the case during past interglacial warm periods.

Edit: For example see:


Karlos G. D. Kochhann, Ann Holbourn, Wolfgang Kuhnt, James E. T. Channell, Mitch Lyle, Julia K. Shackford, Roy (17 September 2016), “Eccentricity pacing of eastern equatorial Pacific carbonate dissolution cycles during the Miocene Climatic Optimum”, Paleoceanography, Vol: 32, pp 1176-1192 DOI:10.1002/2016PA002988

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016PA002988/full

Abstract: “The Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO; ~16.9 to 14.7 Ma) provides an outstanding opportunity to investigate climate-carbon cycle dynamics during a geologically recent interval of global warmth. We present benthic stable oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) isotope records (5–12 kyr time resolution) spanning the late early to middle Miocene interval (18 to 13 Ma) at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1335 (eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean). The U1335 stable isotope series track the onset and development of the MCO as well as the transitional climatic phase culminating with global cooling and expansion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet at ~13.8 Ma. We integrate these new data with published stable isotope, geomagnetic polarity, and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) scanner-derived carbonate records from IODP Sites U1335, U1336, U1337, and U1338 on a consistent, astronomically tuned timescale. Benthic isotope and XRF scanner-derived CaCO3 records depict prominent 100 kyr variability with 400 kyr cyclicity additionally imprinted on δ13C and CaCO3 records, pointing to a tight coupling between the marine carbon cycle and climate variations. Our intersite comparison further indicates that the lysocline behaved in highly dynamic manner throughout the MCO, with >75% carbonate loss occurring at paleodepths ranging from ~3.4 to ~4 km in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Carbonate dissolution maxima coincide with warm phases (δ18O minima) and δ13C decreases, implying that climate-carbon cycle feedbacks fundamentally differed from the late Pleistocene glacial-interglacial pattern, where dissolution maxima correspond to δ13C maxima and δ18O minima. Carbonate dissolution cycles during the MCO were, thus, more similar to Paleogene hyperthermal patterns.”

See also the following associated linked article:

http://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/article/10.1002/2016PA002988/editor-highlight/

Extract: “... swift transitions to “hothouse” conditions—that had profound consequences for life. These spikes could serve as analogues for the future of our warming planet.

The cause of these spikes may in part be due to changes in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, an important greenhouse gas. But the complex feedbacks between the Earth’s climate and the carbon cycle have been hotly debated, and there is little scientific consensus on this issue.

To help unravel the relationship between the carbon cycle and climate during an extended warm period, Kochhann et al. present a data set of stable isotope and carbonate records. These records indicators of changing temperature and the growth or contraction of ice sheets, are from an Integrated Ocean Drilling Program drill site in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.”

& also:

https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.863700

Also see the attached image that indicates that if ECS is indeed higher than AR5 expects (see the middle panel in the image) then the Eastern Eq Pac should warm faster than most of the rest of the world with continued Anthropogenic radiative forcing.

Edit: Also see LVM's post above.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Bruce Steele

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #212 on: April 03, 2017, 08:31:27 PM »
AbruptSLR, The lysocline in the Pacific is shoaling at a rate of about + 2 meters per year. As we load CO2 into the atmosphere that portion absorbed by the oceans transfers to depth by both physical means ( down welling of very cold highly saline waters in both Antarctia the North Atlantic and the Sea of Okhotsk ) and via the biological carbon pump. This transfer of carbon to depth causes acidification of deep waters and leads to a shoaling of the lysocline. This is however a fairly slow process that is of course concurrent with atmospheric heating but I think in the short term not likely causative of a retrograde El Niño .  We have been having a large conversation about the Ding paper of late and maybe the shift of the Atmospheric circulation pattern that may have some implications for a retrograde El Niño?
 Maybe the shift in the GPH over Greenland and the low pressure systems being pulled eastward and riding up the Atlantic might have an effect in the Pacific as well ? We expect an El Niño to form as hot water is pulled from a dome of hot water in the Western Pacific via MJO processes , westerly wind bursts, and a relaxation of easterly winds in the tropics. If the MJO instead strengthens over the Eastern Pacific it would seem to me we should also expect much different rain patterns to develop than those we expect with a strong MJO in the Central Pacific.
 Maybe I am speculating too much . I wasn't correct on what I expected to happen with the 2015-2016 El Niño and the subsequent La Niña . But if a very  strong MJO centers over the far Eastern Pacific I would also expect rain patterns to be much different from what we usually expect an El Niño to deliver.
I know a I am getting way in from of any working knowledge here but if this new El Niño is somehow associated with what we are seeing in the Atlantic this is going to be a very strange year.



TerryM

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #213 on: April 04, 2017, 01:58:22 AM »

I know a I am getting way in from of any working knowledge here but if this new El Niño is somehow associated with what we are seeing in the Atlantic this is going to be a very strange year.


You then believe that we will see a classic El Nino before the year is out?


Watching Neven's new Total Perceptible Water graph I've been struck by how dependent California seems to be on a high pressure system that either allows atmospheric rivers to deluge the state, or maintains an equally deadly drought. In recent years this appears to be having more effect than El Nino / La Nina, unless the high is somehow interconnected with ENSO cycles.


I lost a tenant in Riverside due to flooding in her garage, a new phenomena striking a 60 year old structure. Nothing compared to your struggles WRT unpredictable weather patterns, but still a unique event in a 60 year time frame.


Do we need some new long range forecasting tool, or must farmers simply plant and hope for the best.


Terry


AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #214 on: April 04, 2017, 03:29:56 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Bruce Steele

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #215 on: April 04, 2017, 05:18:12 AM »
Terry, I don't think this potential El Niño is anything I would call "classic" in how it is going to develop,  if it does. I have learned a lot from AbruptSLR and Lord M Vader over the last few years but the way this is developing is something new to me.  Definately not like anything I have lived through. Also nothing like it in the satellite era. I would like to learn more about how a coastal El Niño forms and what processes drive it's formation .
 OT, I am descended from several generations of dry land farmers here in Southern Calif. because when they first moved here there weren't agriculture wells. Even as a kid I remember lots of land planted in Lima beans that is now houses and vineyards. Beans are planted in late spring when you already know how much soil moisture you have. In good years you planted Lima beans, in marginal years you planted black eyed peas, and when it didn't rain you waited another year .  There is so much dependent on wells drilled into aquifers that can't maintain themselves with current levels of pumping. Progress?
 

TerryM

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #216 on: April 04, 2017, 08:37:27 AM »
Bruce

I first learned of El Nino when, after reading Two Years Before the Mast, I wondered why the weather was so different on both of his California visits. Many years later my family owned the home next to Louis Robidoux's place, where Dana often visited.


Huge flooding in Riverside, and later floods that brought desert archaeological sights to light kept El Nino in mind, but it's ASLR and Lord Vader that have been bringing me up to date on the science behind the curtain.


My Riverside home is smack in the middle of what had been one of the greatest orange groves in the world, once owned by a great aunt after her husband, 60 years her senior, met his (un)timely death. She made good money selling oranges, but got very rich selling orange grove lots.


In Nevada El Nino means rain, flash floods and a full Lake Mead. No El Nino and Las Vegas dries up. No El Nino and no power from Boulder dam. No El Nino and Southern Californians return to wherever they came from.


If global warming ends the ENSO cycle, millions will starve, tens of millions will migrate, and hundreds of millions will be negatively affected. And this is but one system in one well developed country.


Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #217 on: April 05, 2017, 03:25:54 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #218 on: April 05, 2017, 08:00:48 PM »
Latest U_Albany forecast hints about a decent possibility for some kind of minor WWB activity during the next 10 days.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #219 on: April 06, 2017, 04:52:21 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +2.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #220 on: April 06, 2017, 05:35:51 PM »
In the just released seasonal forecast pdf for the upcoming hurricane season over the Atlantic basin, Dr. Phil Klotzbach has made a thoroughly discussion about ENSO at page 20-30. Of special interest, he points out that the potential type of El Niño later this year was a feature more common during El Niño events before 1980. At this forum, we have mostly discussed ENSO from the perspective of a WWB pushing warm water eastward.

At page 26 in the pdf there is an abstract of Rasmusson and Carpenter (1982) discussing El Niño development from east to west across the tropical Pacific. Rasmussen and Carpenter were both NOAA scientists.

The link to the pdf is: http://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/04/2017-04.pdf and should be an interesting read for everyone of us here in this thread!

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #221 on: April 07, 2017, 03:28:22 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +2.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #222 on: April 08, 2017, 06:25:41 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +2.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #223 on: April 09, 2017, 04:09:32 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +2.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Bruce Steele

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #224 on: April 09, 2017, 05:44:31 AM »
Lord M Vader, Thanks for the linked Colorado state PDF. It appears a strong MJO in the Western Pacific would disrupt rather than strengthen any potential El Niño this year. Something to watch anyhow.

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #225 on: April 09, 2017, 07:00:34 PM »
Eric Blake posted a long-range GEFS forecast that shows a strong east pacific burst that portends rapid SST intensification and may greatly increase El Nino potential this year.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/851080169716674560
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #226 on: April 09, 2017, 07:38:41 PM »
Jai Mitchell: I sawthat too. However, according to Mike Ventrice, ECMWF argues for a weaker MJO-event. See the interesting discussion at the tweets: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/851073818412109824

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #227 on: April 10, 2017, 03:36:32 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has jumped up to +3.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #228 on: April 10, 2017, 08:57:18 AM »
Guys!!! Minor but fairly strong WWB is here around 144-154oE as a setup of "twin cyclones" as shown by Eartnullschool. See attached pic! Highly interesting development for a future prospect of an El Niño later this year! Courtesy: Earth.nullschool.net


AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #229 on: April 10, 2017, 05:47:04 PM »
The following data and first two images were issued today by NOAA.  The first two images are for the Eq Pac with the first image showing the SSTA Evolution & the second showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom.  The third & fourth images were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending April 9 2017, and show the Nino 3.4 & IOD, indices, respectively.  Also, of this data shows that we remain in an ENSO neutral condition, but it appears that as the Eastern Eq Pac cools, the Western Eq Pac appears to be setting itself up for a possible classical El Nino later this boreal summer.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 15MAR2017     29.1 2.6     27.9 0.8     27.5 0.3     28.2 0.0
 22MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.8 0.6     27.5 0.2     28.2-0.1
 29MAR2017     27.8 1.8     28.1 0.8     27.7 0.3     28.3 0.0
 05APR2017     26.7 0.9     28.2 0.8     27.9 0.3     28.3 0.0
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #230 on: April 10, 2017, 05:49:25 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM showing Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 weekly indices, respectively, thru the week ending April 9 2017.  This data indicates that we remain in ENSO neutral conditions.

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

jai mitchell

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #231 on: April 10, 2017, 06:28:11 PM »
forgive me dark one for my lack of understanding of the infinite powers of the dark side but. . . isn't the forecast for a westerly burst in the East Pacific and a strong MJO event in the West Pacific (120E) not incompatible?

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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #232 on: April 11, 2017, 03:25:11 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #233 on: April 12, 2017, 03:25:42 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +4.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Darvince

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #234 on: April 12, 2017, 07:04:17 AM »
For SOI, where is the boundary where it's considered an El Niño or La Niña?

Bruce Steele

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #235 on: April 12, 2017, 07:47:57 AM »
AbruptSLR
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #231 on: March 15, 2014, 11:23:21 PM »
Quote
The following statement (through March 9 2014) and attached SOI chart (through March 15 2014, and note that on March 15 the 30-day moving average SOI index is -7.5), from the Australian BoM, supports the idea that we are moving towards an El Nino event beginning around mid-April 2014:

"Southern Oscillation Index:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to drop over the past two weeks, having dropped steadily over the past month from a peak of about +14. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 9 March is −6.3.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions."


Darvince, Here is an old post ... from ASLR.  Strangely 2014 didn't produce an El Niño but at the time it surely showed positive signs it would. We are currently in the spring ( and unpredictable ) El Niño season.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #236 on: April 13, 2017, 03:26:11 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +4.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #237 on: April 14, 2017, 03:26:37 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #238 on: April 15, 2017, 03:27:05 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #239 on: April 16, 2017, 03:26:01 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +2.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #240 on: April 17, 2017, 03:27:58 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +0.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #241 on: April 17, 2017, 04:51:11 PM »
Per the following data and first two images (of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively) issued today by NOAA, we remain ENSO neutral; however, there are indications that a classical oceanic Kelvin wave may be forming in the Western Eq Pac as indicated by the third attached image of the TAO Subsurface Temp and Temp Anom profiles issued April 17 2017.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 01MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.1 0.4     26.9 0.0     28.1-0.1
 08MAR2017     28.5 2.1     27.4 0.4     26.8-0.2     27.8-0.3
 15MAR2017     29.1 2.6     27.9 0.8     27.5 0.3     28.2 0.0
 22MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.8 0.6     27.5 0.2     28.2-0.1
 29MAR2017     27.8 1.8     28.1 0.8     27.7 0.3     28.3 0.0
 05APR2017     26.7 0.9     28.2 0.8     27.9 0.3     28.3 0.0
 12APR2017     26.1 0.5     28.2 0.7     28.0 0.2     28.5 0.0
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #242 on: April 17, 2017, 04:55:24 PM »
The two attached images where issued today by the BoM with weekly indices values through the week ending April 16 2017, for the Nino 3.4 and IOD, respectively.  Both indicate ENSO neutral conditions, currently.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #243 on: April 17, 2017, 04:58:42 PM »
The four attached weekly Nino data were all issued today by the BoM through the week ending April 16 2017, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4, indices, respectively.  Jointly show current ENSO neutral conditions with the prospect that the Western Tropical Pacific may be warming up.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #244 on: April 18, 2017, 06:23:59 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -0.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Bruce Steele

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #245 on: April 18, 2017, 06:54:37 AM »
The PDO index just came in for March. Still holding positive at + .74 a slight increase from last month at + .70

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #246 on: April 19, 2017, 03:24:54 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -1.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #247 on: April 20, 2017, 03:16:07 AM »
“To put a finer point on it, March was the warmest non El Niño month modern civilization has witnessed”

https://twitter.com/dekearndt/status/854811371615256581
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #248 on: April 20, 2017, 03:27:28 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -2.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #249 on: April 21, 2017, 12:47:24 AM »
El Niño, La Niña, and global temperature.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.