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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #300 on: May 19, 2017, 06:18:46 AM »
As a quick newbie question, what is the interpretation of the 30 day moving SOI? The more negative the value the more likely an El Nino ? And I know I just caused teeth gnashing and hair pulling by anyone who understands that graph well. Just looking for a starting point to begin my own research. I was just hoping to get a hook/enticing preview to jump start my attention.

Sustained values (for a few months or more, for the Southern Oscillation Index, SOI): above +8 indicate La Nina conditions, between +8 & -8 indicate ENSO neutral conditions; and below -8 indicate El Nino conditions.  However, the ENSO index is the most volatile of ENSO indicators, so other indicators like the MEI are more reliable, while the Nino 3.4 index is the most commonly referenced indicator.

Thus, per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -6.0; which generally indicates neutral conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #301 on: May 20, 2017, 03:26:17 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -5.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #302 on: May 21, 2017, 03:26:51 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -4.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #303 on: May 22, 2017, 03:27:59 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #304 on: May 22, 2017, 05:50:45 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on May 17 2017; the first two NOAA Eq Pac. images for the Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively, and the last two BoM images for the week ending May 21 2017, for the Nino 3.4 & IOD, indices, respectively: ENSO conditions are just below the El Nino border, and remain neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 05APR2017     26.7 0.9     28.2 0.8     27.9 0.3     28.3 0.0
 12APR2017     26.1 0.5     28.2 0.7     28.0 0.2     28.5 0.0
 19APR2017     26.4 1.1     28.1 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.8 0.3
 26APR2017     26.0 1.0     28.0 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 03MAY2017     25.6 0.8     27.8 0.5     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 10MAY2017     25.4 1.0     27.8 0.6     28.3 0.5     29.1 0.4
 17MAY2017     25.2 1.1     27.6 0.5     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.3
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #305 on: May 22, 2017, 05:53:12 PM »
The four attached images were issued by the BoM today for the weekly Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, thru the week ending May 21, 2017.  These data indicate ENSO neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #306 on: May 23, 2017, 03:28:58 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -3.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #307 on: May 24, 2017, 03:28:36 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -3.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #308 on: May 24, 2017, 07:31:04 PM »
From Michael Lowry via Twitter: https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/867383507399704578

Absolutely weird!!  >:(



oren

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #309 on: May 24, 2017, 10:00:30 PM »
Insane. Putting out one's eyes doesn't typically solve problems.

solartim27

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #310 on: May 25, 2017, 02:10:01 AM »
From Michael Lowry via Twitter
From another link in that feed
Quote
Michelle: Wow, that was an impressive Coastal El Niño! Since you had a front row seat can you put it in more context?

Ken: I wish we had been able to predict it with months in advance. It seems to have come out of nowhere. Although the far-eastern Pacific was somewhat warm throughout 2016, the warming in January 2017 was intense and abrupt.
.......
Ken: From the limited data we have from 1925 (we only have some ship-based measurements along a few commercial tracks), we see there was a distinct progression of the warming sea surface from the east towards the west, accompanied by development of westerly wind anomalies that are part of the coupled ocean-atmosphere physics of ENSO. This led to the 1925-26 broad-scale Pacific warming, what you and many around the world simply call “El Niño”. ;)

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-forecasters-offices-getting-coffee
FNORD

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #311 on: May 25, 2017, 03:55:02 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #312 on: May 26, 2017, 03:21:19 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -2.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #313 on: May 27, 2017, 06:04:21 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -2.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #314 on: May 28, 2017, 03:26:27 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -3.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #315 on: May 29, 2017, 03:29:46 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #316 on: May 29, 2017, 04:59:25 PM »
Per the following weekly Nino data issued by NOAA through the week centered on May 24, 2017; the first two images issued by NOAA today for the Eq Pac of the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two images issued by the BoM through the week ending May 28 2017 of the Nino 3.4 and IOD, weekly indices, respectively; ENSO conditions are fluctuating about a plateau near possible weak El Nino conditions

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 19APR2017     26.4 1.1     28.1 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.8 0.3
 26APR2017     26.0 1.0     28.0 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 03MAY2017     25.6 0.8     27.8 0.5     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 10MAY2017     25.4 1.0     27.8 0.6     28.3 0.5     29.1 0.4
 17MAY2017     25.2 1.1     27.6 0.5     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.3
 24MAY2017     24.2 0.4     27.5 0.6     28.4 0.6     29.1 0.3
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #317 on: May 29, 2017, 05:03:05 PM »
The four attached plots of weekly Nino data through the week ending May 28 2107, were all issued today by the BoM for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  The data supports the idea that ENSO conditions are fluctuating about a plateau near possible weak El Nino conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #318 on: May 29, 2017, 06:21:48 PM »
Climate Prediction Center - National Centers for Environmental Prediction - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov looks bearish on El Niño for the rest of this year (different from forecast in March). (Or to be positive, it looks bullish on neutral ENSO conditions.)

Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #319 on: May 30, 2017, 03:28:55 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -0.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #320 on: May 31, 2017, 12:45:03 AM »
The MEI was updated on May 6th 2017, and indicates that in the March-April 2017 timeframe the MEI jumped up relatively abruptly for this time of year, from ENSO-neutral to a moderate El Nino ranking (if sustained).

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/#discussion

Extract: "Compared to last month, the updated (March-April) MEI has increased by 0.85 standard deviations from -.08 up to 0.77, jumping up from ENSO-neutral to moderate El Niño rankings. In fact, this increase is the largest on record for this time of year (and since 1950), bringing the recent ENSO-neutral spell to at least a temporary end."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #321 on: May 31, 2017, 03:29:18 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #322 on: June 01, 2017, 03:26:58 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Forest Dweller

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #323 on: June 01, 2017, 12:08:00 PM »
Than you for these updates Abrupt!

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #324 on: June 02, 2017, 10:53:42 AM »
Than you for these updates Abrupt!

Glad to be of service.

Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #325 on: June 03, 2017, 03:28:07 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -0.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #326 on: June 04, 2017, 03:41:37 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -0.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #327 on: June 05, 2017, 03:28:01 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +0.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #328 on: June 05, 2017, 04:30:57 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on May 31 2017; the first two NOAA images issued today for the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom. & SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two images issued today by the BoM for weekly data thru the week ending June 4 2017 showing the Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices, respectively; the ENSO conditions continue to plateau near weak El Nino conditions:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 26APR2017     26.0 1.0     28.0 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 03MAY2017     25.6 0.8     27.8 0.5     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 10MAY2017     25.4 1.0     27.8 0.6     28.3 0.5     29.1 0.4
 17MAY2017     25.2 1.1     27.6 0.5     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.3
 24MAY2017     24.2 0.4     27.5 0.6     28.4 0.6     29.1 0.3
 31MAY2017     23.7 0.2     27.2 0.5     28.3 0.6     29.2 0.4
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #329 on: June 05, 2017, 04:33:36 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM with week Nino data thru the week ending June 4, 2017, show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  These plots indicate that ENSO conditions continue to plateau near (below) weak El Nino conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #330 on: June 06, 2017, 03:24:07 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -0.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #331 on: June 07, 2017, 03:28:24 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #332 on: June 08, 2017, 03:29:39 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

crandles

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #333 on: June 08, 2017, 03:56:54 PM »
Quote
8 June 2017
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere fall
2017.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #334 on: June 09, 2017, 03:27:40 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +1.4:

20170509,20170607,1.4
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #335 on: June 10, 2017, 03:25:22 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +1.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #336 on: June 11, 2017, 03:28:31 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #337 on: June 12, 2017, 03:48:38 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +1.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #338 on: June 12, 2017, 09:36:31 PM »
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino data (thru the week centered on June 7 2017); the first two images issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac of the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two images issued today by the BoM of the weekly Nino 3.4 and the IOD, thru the week ending June 11 2017: the ENSO conditions are clearly neutral.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 26APR2017     26.0 1.0     28.0 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 03MAY2017     25.6 0.8     27.8 0.5     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 10MAY2017     25.4 1.0     27.8 0.6     28.3 0.5     29.1 0.4
 17MAY2017     25.2 1.1     27.6 0.5     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.3
 24MAY2017     24.2 0.4     27.5 0.6     28.4 0.6     29.1 0.3
 31MAY2017     23.7 0.2     27.2 0.5     28.3 0.6     29.2 0.4
 07JUN2017     23.1-0.1     26.9 0.3     28.1 0.4     29.3 0.5
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #339 on: June 12, 2017, 09:39:01 PM »
The four images were issued today by the BoM & show weekly Nino data thru the week ending June 11 2017; for the Nino 1,2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This data indicate that the ENSO conditions are currently neutral:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #340 on: June 13, 2017, 03:28:11 AM »
Per the following plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.2:
« Last Edit: June 14, 2017, 10:26:24 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #341 on: June 14, 2017, 10:25:34 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -0.4:

20170514,20170612,-0.4
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #342 on: June 15, 2017, 03:29:55 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -1.1:

20170515,20170613,-1.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #343 on: June 16, 2017, 03:24:17 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -1.8:

20170516,20170614,-1.8
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #344 on: June 17, 2017, 03:27:44 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -2.5:

20170517,20170615,-2.5

Edit: To those who are not sure, I am not posting plots because the BoM has not updated their plots of the 30-day moving average SOI in several days.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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jai mitchell

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #345 on: June 17, 2017, 06:02:35 AM »
Thank you for these updates ASLR.  This is very critical data.
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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #347 on: June 18, 2017, 03:37:38 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -3.1:


20170518,20170616,-3.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #348 on: June 19, 2017, 03:31:05 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -3.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #349 on: June 19, 2017, 04:40:41 PM »
Progress is being made on long-term nonlinear predictability of ENSO events:

Astudillo, H.F., Abarca-del-Río, R. & Borotto, F.A. (2017), "Long-term potential nonlinear predictability of El Niño–La Niña events", Clim Dyn, 49: 131. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3330-1

https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3330-1?utm_content=buffer41715&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "We show that the monthly recorded history (1866–2014) of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a descriptor of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, can be correctly described as a dynamic system supporting a potential nonlinear predictability well beyond the spring barrier. Long-term predictability is strongly connected to a detailed knowledge about the topology of the attractor obtained by embedding the SOI index in a wavelet base state space. By utilizing the state orbits on the attractor, we show that the information contained in the SOI is sufficient to provide nonlinear attractor information, allowing the detection of predictability for longer than a year: 2, 3, and 4 years in advance throughout the record with an acceptable error. This is possible due to the fact that the lower-frequency variability of the SOI presents long-term positive autocorrelation. Thus, by using complementary methods, we confirm that the reconstructed attractor of the low-frequency part (lower than 1/year) of SOI time series cannot be attributed to stochastic influences. Furthermore, we establish its multifractality. As an example of the capabilities of the methodology, we investigate a few specific El Niño (1972–1973, 1982–1983, 1997–1998) and La Niña (1973–1973, 1988–1989 and 2010–2011) events. Our results indicate that each of these present several equivalent temporal structures over other eras of these 149 years (1866–2014). Accordingly, none of these cases, including extreme events, presents temporal singularity. We conclude that the methodology’s simplicity of implementation and ease of use makes it suitable for studying nonlinear predictability in any area where observations are similar to those describing the ENSO phenomenon."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson