Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?  (Read 32497 times)

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 795
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 151
What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« on: January 11, 2017, 03:18:51 PM »
So what do folk expect to see this melt season? Once upon a time we were always told " it's too early to think about that!" but , after last summer followed by what we have seen this Autumn/winter, does that stand as true any more?

Can we , even before the sun's up, forecast a bad year for the ice?

I think we now can?

Even now we appear to be lurching toward another event that could make things worse for the upcoming melt season while areas of the Basin are still struggling with 're-Freeze'?.  How long before the Sun rises over Barrow again?

There can be no doubt that this re-freeze is worse than last years and where did last years re-freeze ( or lack of?) leave us? To me the corner has been turned and the Basin is now in its final decline with feedback now meaning that no real re-freeze ( compared to the old Arctic back in the 60's/70's?) can occur over a Basin actively controlling the Weather introduced over the Ocean entrances via WACCy forcings?

We may well have missed the subtle changes over Barentsz/Kara for the last 15 years but I feel they are ground zero for the introduction of the feedback that will ensure no pack will now face a summer knowing it will not have all melted out by late August. Even last year would have been in dangerous territory had one of the high solar months remained H.P. dominated? This winter will leave us an even thinner,warmer, weaker pack to face melt season so I'm confident in saying that, barring a VIE5 event or large impact event, we will see ice drop lower than last year? But that is no longer important to me! what is important is how much open water for how long.

This upcoming Full moon's tides may well prove disruptive to the pack prior to the arrival of a very nasty low over the Atlantic side of the basin. If the moon has shattered the pack then the low will tear it up even more with increased export from Fram, slabbing,beaching and compression giving open water and so late formed 'skim ice' to await the return of the Sun.

The hardest part of all of this is the weather over the basin over melt season?

We know it was the earliest possible return of the 07' type 'perfect melt storm' but surely that 'pattern ' no longer exists amid all the changes we have been seeing?

That said High pressure has saved the UK from its yearly winter flooding ( so far!) as low solar promotes High Pressure dominance. What if this high pressure dominance just eases north with the polar Jet as spring/Summer arrives around the northern hemisphere?


 
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

LRC1962

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 431
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2017, 04:39:55 PM »
Some other questions that I would include are these. Based on the development of the wondering slow jet stream the last few years have seen the following. Relatively warm stormy winters and cool cloudy calm summers.
This has seen extent maximums that are low but not really out of line with what would be expected given the weather conditions and that also includes the effects on volumes. For the summer it has resulted in generally lower then expected melt off given the maximum starting point and condition of the ice including MYI.
[An aside at this point. I cannot see that MYI of today can be anywhere close the the MYI of 1980 and therefore dragging out the melt formulas to apply today's MYI can not be the same as the formula of 1980 MYI. It would be the like saying the same volume of contaminated slushy will melt at exactly the same rate as pure solid block of pure water ice of the same volume.]
The questions I think about are: Since 2012 are we seeing an establishment of a new weather regime? Will it continue for the long term thus giving us the long tail melt? Or are we just in one of those level off parts of the steps before we hit a new big melt off. If that is the case then is the Arctic is in such a bad state the we could possibly see the loss of what is still around in one season?
If we do happen to see a 2007 type summer, I could see us losing all we have there in one go. Why? I do think that the thick ice that is currently there is nothing more then contaminated salty ice that under 2007 or 2012 type summer will vanish in a flash because there is no solid structure to that ice.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2255
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 248
  • Likes Given: 174
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2017, 04:49:52 PM »
I think there is still time for the pack to solidify, harden and thicken. If we get a January/February like last year, then I expect record low minimum, with a very high chance of a BOE. If we get a Jan/Feb like  2013 then the Arctic may yet recover.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 795
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 151
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2017, 04:51:16 PM »
I think an 07' type of event would not only take the ice but do so by August ?

The Energy the basin could absorb over such a summer would see the basin trying to shed well over a moderate Nino's worth of energy before being able to refreeze..... how would that mess up the local atmosphere including the strat above?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Sterks

  • Guest
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2017, 04:52:06 PM »
[...]
If we do happen to see a 2007 type summer, I could see us losing all we have there in one go. Why? I do think that the thick ice that is currently there is nothing more then contaminated salty ice that under 2007 or 2012 type summer will vanish in a flash because there is no solid structure to that ice.
Without knowing the whole story of 2007, only partial bits, a scenario like you describe seems entirely reasonable as leading to the first summer virtually without ice. This is my expectation if such weather comes

RoxTheGeologist

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 448
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 118
  • Likes Given: 90
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2017, 06:33:00 PM »

I'm expecting Atlantic Water (AW) to penetrate further into the Arctic basin as the surface fresh water lens that maintains ice becomes mixed and erodes along its perimeter. Where AW once would sink beneath the Arctic surface waters it will remain on the surface as the halocline weakens due to increased temperature, wave action and briny surface water.

Where this happens refreeze becomes much more difficult, as when AW cools at the surface the colder water sinks, AW is most dense as it gets colder because of its salinity, and causes convective upwelling of deeper warm water.

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2017, 06:56:47 PM »
Some other questions that I would include are these. Based on the development of the wondering slow jet stream the last few years have seen the following. Relatively warm stormy winters and cool cloudy calm summers.
This has seen extent maximums that are low but not really out of line with what would be expected given the weather conditions and that also includes the effects on volumes. For the summer it has resulted in generally lower then expected melt off given the maximum starting point and condition of the ice including MYI.
[An aside at this point. I cannot see that MYI of today can be anywhere close the the MYI of 1980 and therefore dragging out the melt formulas to apply today's MYI can not be the same as the formula of 1980 MYI. It would be the like saying the same volume of contaminated slushy will melt at exactly the same rate as pure solid block of pure water ice of the same volume.]
The questions I think about are: Since 2012 are we seeing an establishment of a new weather regime? Will it continue for the long term thus giving us the long tail melt? Or are we just in one of those level off parts of the steps before we hit a new big melt off. If that is the case then is the Arctic is in such a bad state the we could possibly see the loss of what is still around in one season?
If we do happen to see a 2007 type summer, I could see us losing all we have there in one go. Why? I do think that the thick ice that is currently there is nothing more then contaminated salty ice that under 2007 or 2012 type summer will vanish in a flash because there is no solid structure to that ice.

a very nice resumes, sincere congrats  ;)

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2017, 06:58:11 PM »
I think there is still time for the pack to solidify, harden and thicken. If we get a January/February like last year, then I expect record low minimum, with a very high chance of a BOE. If we get a Jan/Feb like  2013 then the Arctic may yet recover.

if i understand the word "recover" correctly, the answer is clearly "NO" there is no way that the ice will recover during this freezing season because "NO" there is not enough time, there is one month before we reach the plateau phase, hower flat that plateau will be and the lower latitudes will start to feel the sun in about 4 to 5 weeks from now as well.

marcel_g

  • New ice
  • Posts: 73
    • View Profile
    • Art by Marcel Guldemond
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 104
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2017, 07:16:26 PM »
My guess is that freezing season leaves the ice thin, and the extent is a record low. I'm guessing the maximum is a record for lowest max, and then the spring melting season keeps extent and area in record territory.

Until June, where the melt rates level off much like they did last year because there will be a lot more cloudy weather in the arctic in the summer, maybe due to the amount of open water, but there will again be a lot of early melting causing open water intrusions in the chukchi, beaufort, barents, kara, so there will be again a lot of warm water early on.

Even with the cloudy weather, the ice will be so weak it'll melt back a lot and just become slush, so that even if extent isn't an eye popping record, the area and volume metrics will be.

Not sure it'll get below the 1 Million sq km threshold, but it'll still be crap ice that's left, and refreeze will be really slow and weak.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3011
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 181
  • Likes Given: 170
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2017, 07:30:08 PM »
I expect to see the 2017 minimum extent under 3 million KM2 and area under 2 million.  I expect we will have open water at the north pole (no pack ice within 100KM).  Volume may end up under 2000 KM3.
This space for Rent.

Paddy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 565
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2017, 08:02:46 PM »
Not making any predictions yet. Between the unprecedented starting point, the uncertainties about whether La Nina will continue, and above all the generally large inter-year variations, anything could happen.

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 212
  • Likes Given: 186
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #11 on: January 11, 2017, 08:27:51 PM »
I was a year early forecasting the demise of the Arctic sea ice . My 'pole hole' is a likely end result of this 'freeze' season. If this summer allows either clear skies OR warmer air to enter the Arctic then we will see little ice remain . Then the question will be .. can we have a refreeze in the new era of open ocean ?
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2017, 08:58:13 PM »
I was a year early forecasting the demise of the Arctic sea ice . My 'pole hole' is a likely end result of this 'freeze' season. If this summer allows either clear skies OR warmer air to enter the Arctic then we will see little ice remain . Then the question will be .. can we have a refreeze in the new era of open ocean ?

certainly yes as to the latest question, all talk about no ice in winter is not realistic, there will be winter with no sunlight and global temps that would leave a dark pole ice-free in winter would probably be close to total extinction of life and even if i'm wrong here it will take many many years, talking centuries or more to get to that point IMO.

ritter

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 541
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #13 on: January 12, 2017, 01:10:13 AM »
I expect to see the 2017 minimum extent under 3 million KM2 and area under 2 million.  I expect we will have open water at the north pole (no pack ice within 100KM).  Volume may end up under 2000 KM3.
:( Let's hope for better than that. (but not holding my breath)

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3011
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 181
  • Likes Given: 170
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #14 on: January 12, 2017, 01:42:30 AM »
I expect to see the 2017 minimum extent under 3 million KM2 and area under 2 million.  I expect we will have open water at the north pole (no pack ice within 100KM).  Volume may end up under 2000 KM3.
:( Let's hope for better than that. (but not holding my breath)
I always hope for better, and hope I am proven wrong. I advise you stick to your plan (not holding your breath).

However, my prediction is based on several assumptions.

1) Fall opportunity for volume increases blocked by imported heat will not be compensated for.
2) Arctic-wide heat anomalies and FDD deficit will continue through the Equinox as they did last year.
3) 2017 melt season conditions will be approximately that seen in 2015/16

If we are *lucky* and see a cold cloudy melt season like 2013, we might bottom out around the same level as last year. A melt season like 2012 I really don't want to countenance, but likely would prove Prof. Wadhams has been correct all along.
This space for Rent.

pauldry600

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 196
    • View Profile
    • weathergossip
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #15 on: January 12, 2017, 03:03:54 AM »
I expect a minimum of 4.4m

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 212
  • Likes Given: 186
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #16 on: January 12, 2017, 03:13:32 AM »
is that 4.4metres squared or cubed ?
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Darvince

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 277
    • View Profile
    • NSIDC Daily
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #17 on: January 12, 2017, 04:02:16 AM »
I think that, just as we saw a state change in 2007 to a much stronger melting season resulting in a much lower minimum, we saw another state change last year and so I am expecting that the "range" of minimums in this new state ranges from slightly above that of 2016 to perhaps 2M km², all depending on the melt season weather.

However I would be shocked if the minimum this year was better defined than it was last year, when the area was near 2012's record minimum while extent was almost 1 million km² higher...
« Last Edit: July 09, 2017, 12:31:07 PM by Darvince »

LRC1962

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 431
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #18 on: January 12, 2017, 04:07:42 AM »
I was a year early forecasting the demise of the Arctic sea ice . My 'pole hole' is a likely end result of this 'freeze' season. If this summer allows either clear skies OR warmer air to enter the Arctic then we will see little ice remain . Then the question will be .. can we have a refreeze in the new era of open ocean ?

certainly yes as to the latest question, all talk about no ice in winter is not realistic, there will be winter with no sunlight and global temps that would leave a dark pole ice-free in winter would probably be close to total extinction of life and even if i'm wrong here it will take many many years, talking centuries or more to get to that point IMO.
A certain amount of refreeze will happen, but with one very important impact. The conveyor of Atlantic storms I suspect will continue and as solid ice has always in the past been the moderator of Arctic storms much like land in the south, these storms will continue deep into Arctic waters. On top of that unlike in the south where the centres of storms are warm and therefore any cold water kills storms, inn the Arctic the opposite is true. Cold centres and warm sides. As long as there is enough warm air coming in from the sides of the storm, that storm will continue and according to climate forecasters, last a very long time.
As a result, you end up with very low extent, not because of warm temps, but mechanical energy not allowing for the development of ice. One thing that is not being considered enough by some is that mechanical energy can 'melt' ice faster then heat given the right conditions.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1649
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #19 on: January 12, 2017, 04:25:38 AM »
As the year plays on, starting even before melt season, storms will play a bigger role in transforming the Arctic. As the melt season begins, each new storm will progressively get worse, causing damage deeper into the pack. These will do more damage this year than insolation, though it will do it's share. Thunder and lightning will become common place. The much longed for winter will barely come soon enough, only to be more disappointing than the last one. Don't even get me started on what will happen elsewhere in the world, and hey, you asked. I'm hungry. I Think I will have a snack now.

6roucho

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 296
  • Finance geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #20 on: January 12, 2017, 05:58:51 AM »
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

[It seems apropos of everything right now.]

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1219
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #21 on: January 12, 2017, 07:51:09 AM »
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

[It seems apropos of everything right now.]

Thanks Grey Wolf for starting this thread.

A very good description of the human race courtesy of William Butler Yeats. My estimate is not based on any hard scientific data, just an amateur observing the arctic since 2007. Two seminal years, 2007 and 2012, followed by what some describe as a recovery of sorts in 2013 and 2014. Enter 2016, which could have resulted in a new record low amount of ice coverage, if it had followed the pattern of 2007, or 2012. Despite the lack of a new record, the state of the remaining ice was arguably worse than in 2012. A quick refreeze was followed by a protracted slow down, resulting in an extended period (still going!) of record low sea ice.

This is what I believe will happen in 2017, a high likelihood of record low sea ice extent, area and volume. The prevailing weather conditions in 2007 will likely not reoccur as warmer arctic temps tend to create a cloudier arctic. The arctic cyclones, which I think will continue, along with warmer temps has increasingly turned the ice pack into crushed ice which would be useful in making margaritas and further melting. If we have at least average Fram and Nares Strait export, we could be looking at a significantly lower record than what occurred in 2012. Even under the worse melting conditions imaginable during the summer of 2017, the state of the ice will be no better and probably worse than after the summer of 2016.

I noticed that Neven locked the 2017 melting season thread. Although I'm certain he had good intentions, I think it was a mistake. Just wanted to go on record with that.

 
« Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 07:58:00 AM by budmantis »

Darvince

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 277
    • View Profile
    • NSIDC Daily
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #22 on: January 12, 2017, 10:02:10 AM »
As the year plays on, starting even before melt season, storms will play a bigger role in transforming the Arctic. As the melt season begins, each new storm will progressively get worse, causing damage deeper into the pack. These will do more damage this year than insolation, though it will do it's share. Thunder and lightning will become common place. The much longed for winter will barely come soon enough, only to be more disappointing than the last one. Don't even get me started on what will happen elsewhere in the world, and hey, you asked. I'm hungry. I Think I will have a snack now.
Try this scenario over the next years, but definitely not this year. We have endured a step change into a warmer and stormier Arctic, but another one isn't coming for a few years at least, which would either be a somehow weaker and messier remaining summer pack :o or an ice-free minimum.

Pavel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 191
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #23 on: January 12, 2017, 12:10:26 PM »
I expect low ice extent/volume during the melting season and stormy August because of huge ice-free areas and warm SST. Storms will spread the remaining MYI, some of it won't survive the melting season. The remaining ice pack will be spreaded,so the extent number could be above 2,5mln sq km. And then very adverse conditions for the freezing season with warmer SSTs and even more storms than this season
« Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 12:35:58 PM by Pavel »

DavidR

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 731
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 30
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #24 on: January 12, 2017, 01:18:48 PM »
The attached image extrapolates the minimum NSIDC SIE out to zero based on a polynomial  line of best fit. As you can see it predicts that by about 2033, zero will be the new 'normal minimum'. 

However we normally  think of 'ice-free' as less than 1 M km^2.  That occurs in 2029.

However the first instance of an ice free Arctic in September will occur during an anomaly like 2007 or 2012 when the extent was more than 1.1 M km^2 below the trend line .  This suggests that the first 'ice-free' Arctic could occur between 2024  and 2029.  1.1  below the trend in 2017 would  take the minimum down to  2.5 M km^2.   I expect 2017 to approach this figure because both 1984 and 1999,  the years after the last  big El Ninos,  both saw significant new record lows.

Personally  I think that hoping for the first  'ice-free' arctic to occur after 2023 is highly optimistic.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2255
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 248
  • Likes Given: 174
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #25 on: January 12, 2017, 02:04:49 PM »
DavidR, your analysis would be right only if the arctic was a 2D object, but it is not. It is 3D object. In the third dimension, the data tells a different story.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2937
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 285
  • Likes Given: 160
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #26 on: January 12, 2017, 02:12:54 PM »
The biggest one year drop was about 1.7 M km ^2, per my ruler on the computer screen (on DavidR's graph).  A drop like this under the projected curve could result in a ~2022 less-than-1 M km^2 record.  Given how much (little) sea ice there is (compared to [edit: today's] previous minimum), it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to bring that projection to an even earlier year.  Although I understand that ice volume is the most significant metric in terms of forecasting ice loss (I see Archimid' post now), large storms will churn up ocean heat (with winds that will break up the ice and export it), so the surface heat balance formulae can become less significant.  But I'll agree that an "ice-free" 2017 is unlikely.  (But maybe an ice-free North Pole is in the making.)

I agree that a 2007 "perfect melt season" is unlikely because of cloud cover.  There will be storms.  (There be dragons!)
« Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 05:11:52 PM by Tor Bejnar »
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 795
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 151
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #27 on: January 12, 2017, 05:05:22 PM »
[quote author=Tor Bejnar link=topic=1846.msg98970#msg98970 date=1484226774
I agree that a 2007 "perfect melt season" is unlikely because of cloud cover.  There will be storms.  (There be dragons!)
[/quote]

I'm having a bit of a waver about this summer over the basin as I do not know if whatever brings H.P. predominance to the Atlantic ,over low solar winters, continues over spring/summer but shifts north along with the Polar Jet?

Such a shift would be awful with the outside of the basin ice free and warmed and central basin storms throwing ice out into the warmed fringes.......

But as I say I have no idea what happens over low solar summers but we are entering such a period? Then there is a suggestion of another Nino forming up over late spring /Summer...... how will that influence the autumn/winter if we see that form?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1649
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #28 on: January 12, 2017, 06:01:03 PM »
All these charts that zero out at some point are missing an important element. I would call it a stall line. In this case it would apply only on the lower limit, which I do not claim to know, but I guarantee it is not zero on the vertical axis.  Anyway, once it is reached, the curve no longer applies.

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2255
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 248
  • Likes Given: 174
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #29 on: January 12, 2017, 06:19:42 PM »
Quote
I guarantee it is not zero on the vertical axis.

Do you have any good links that can guarantee the existence of such a stall line? 

If I understand you correctly you are pointing to distinct phenomenom that will stop the current decrease in volume. This phenomenon will create an inflection point. Can you make that clearer?

I ask because I fail to see such stall. Unless solar variation is much more significant than the numbers tell, the world is scheduled to keep warming.  Seeing than during the last "hiatus" the arctic melt accelerated, even if we get another hiatus it will be at higher temperatures than the 20th century average. I fail to see how arctic conditions will get better.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Ninebelowzero

  • New ice
  • Posts: 86
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #30 on: January 12, 2017, 06:25:50 PM »
So what do folk expect to see this melt season?......


Panic?

ritter

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 541
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #31 on: January 12, 2017, 06:50:15 PM »
I expect to see the 2017 minimum extent under 3 million KM2 and area under 2 million.  I expect we will have open water at the north pole (no pack ice within 100KM).  Volume may end up under 2000 KM3.
:( Let's hope for better than that. (but not holding my breath)
I always hope for better, and hope I am proven wrong. I advise you stick to your plan (not holding your breath).

However, my prediction is based on several assumptions.

1) Fall opportunity for volume increases blocked by imported heat will not be compensated for.
2) Arctic-wide heat anomalies and FDD deficit will continue through the Equinox as they did last year.
3) 2017 melt season conditions will be approximately that seen in 2015/16

If we are *lucky* and see a cold cloudy melt season like 2013, we might bottom out around the same level as last year. A melt season like 2012 I really don't want to countenance, but likely would prove Prof. Wadhams has been correct all along.
In some ways, maybe it would be good to witness a crash this summer. Time to get the show on the road, so to speak. And before we're blinded by budget cuts. Maybe, just maybe, something that spectacular would cure the cranialrectal disease that seems to afflict so many.

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1649
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #32 on: January 12, 2017, 06:55:11 PM »
Quote
I guarantee it is not zero on the vertical axis.

Do you have any good links that can guarantee the existence of such a stall line? 

If I understand you correctly you are pointing to distinct phenomenom that will stop the current decrease in volume. This phenomenon will create an inflection point. Can you make that clearer?

I ask because I fail to see such stall. Unless solar variation is much more significant than the numbers tell, the world is scheduled to keep warming.  Seeing than during the last "hiatus" the arctic melt accelerated, even if we get another hiatus it will be at higher temperatures than the 20th century average. I fail to see how arctic conditions will get better.
Sorry, as I should have been more clear. I did not mean stall as in an end to warming and melting, but as in a system that works on a cycle reaching a failing point. When volume reaches a certain low level, the cycle of re-freeze and melt can't go on in any orderly fashion.

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2255
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 248
  • Likes Given: 174
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #33 on: January 12, 2017, 07:16:57 PM »
Sorry TT, I re-read it and understand you mean. You mean a stall as the point when the system can no longer be described as before. I get you now.

I thought you meant a stall that will give way to the "slow transition". I think the chances of that stall are disappearing with the sea ice.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1649
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #34 on: January 12, 2017, 07:24:10 PM »
I keep thinking of a combustion engine (ironic  I know). You can only idle it down so much before it stalls altogether. There is simply a minimal momentum required to keep a cycle going.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 09:42:34 PM by Tigertown »

schnitm

  • New ice
  • Posts: 5
  • Data Geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #35 on: January 12, 2017, 07:43:41 PM »
All these charts that zero out at some point are missing an important element. I would call it a stall line. In this case it would apply only on the lower limit, which I do not claim to know, but I guarantee it is not zero on the vertical axis.  Anyway, once it is reached, the curve no longer applies.

I have been thinking similar thoughts.  In human disease models there is often an early exponential decay (death rate) followed by a reverse slower decline.  The path to zero survivors usually has an S shape, better described by a Weibull distribution than exponential. 

The underlying reason for this is that there are usually two or more underlying populations in our disease group.  Call them the weak and the strong.  The strong survive, sometimes a long time and eventually cause the curve to kink.  The proportion of weak and strong drives the location of the kink.  Even in something as dire as recurrent pancreas cancer there is a kink.

So, I've been wondering if the distinction between weak and strong may be influenced by land based ice.  Will it protect some sea ice, produce a kink and delay the ultimate date of an ice free summer day in the arctic?

CognitiveBias

  • New ice
  • Posts: 84
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #36 on: January 12, 2017, 08:48:52 PM »
I expect a quick melt out of much of thinner FYI, staying in record territory of extent and volume once the thaw starts,  with 10-15% chance of meeting the "ice free" threshold.  By mid to late July, everyone including mainstream media will be talking about the great melt-down of arctic ice.  We will end with record minimum close to the 2's..  in M km^2 and K km^3. 

I realize people way better at this than me are predicting much less dire results... so I will not be surprised if this prediction looks a bit crazy.  The remaining MYI just looks incredibly vulnerable.  And FYI hardly seems to have a chance.

 

Phil.

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 323
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #37 on: January 12, 2017, 09:19:46 PM »
I expect to see the 2017 minimum extent under 3 million KM2 and area under 2 million.  I expect we will have open water at the north pole (no pack ice within 100KM).  Volume may end up under 2000 KM3.

I agree, we had open water adjacent to the Pole last august, given recent developments I'd expect that to be surpassed this year.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BJatI8oj06U/

OldLeatherneck

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 554
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #38 on: January 13, 2017, 12:07:12 AM »
All these charts that zero out at some point are missing an important element. I would call it a stall line. In this case it would apply only on the lower limit, which I do not claim to know, but I guarantee it is not zero on the vertical axis.  Anyway, once it is reached, the curve no longer applies.

I have been thinking similar thoughts.  In human disease models there is often an early exponential decay (death rate) followed by a reverse slower decline.  The path to zero survivors usually has an S shape, better described by a Weibull distribution than exponential. 

The underlying reason for this is that there are usually two or more underlying populations in our disease group.  Call them the weak and the strong.  The strong survive, sometimes a long time and eventually cause the curve to kink.  The proportion of weak and strong drives the location of the kink.  Even in something as dire as recurrent pancreas cancer there is a kink.

So, I've been wondering if the distinction between weak and strong may be influenced by land based ice.  Will it protect some sea ice, produce a kink and delay the ultimate date of an ice free summer day in the arctic?

schnitm,

Welcome to the Forum.  I appreciate that you used the analogy of how the ratio of weak to strong can and will impact the final shape of the curve.  While I haven't had the time recently to post very often, I do check the various charts Neven has provided us on a daily basis.

When it comes to defining the ratio of "sick" ice to "healthy" ice you need to clearly define which metric you are using.  The ratios of "sick" to healthy for Extent will differ greatly than the ratios for Volume.

In the 5 years I've following the demise of the Arctic ice, I can quite certainly state that when using the  metric of Extent, as an example, there are significant visual differences in the ratios between "sick" and "healthy" ice.  For the sake of this discussion I'm using only thickness as the measurement and I'm calling"sick" ice less than 2 meters thick and "healthy" ice greater than 5 meters thick.  I fully realize that other factors such as the cohesiveness of the individual floes is an important assessment of the true health, in terms of survivability.  5 years ago the northern shores of the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland provided a safe haven for thick multi-year ice.  In the last few years, we have seen a great deal of damage to these formerly invulnerable floes of ice.

Now for my thoughts as to what may happen during 2017's melt season. While everything will depend on when each of the three metrics reaches their maximum, how long the plateaus last, when the serious declines begin and what the weather patterns provide during the following six months.

However, using IJIS Extent as one example, if the maximum is between 13.5 Km2 and 13.8 Km2, the maximum is reached before the end of February, the plateau is short-lived and serious declines start by the Equinox, we are in for an interesting ride this year.  An average melt year will end with the a new record low, although not by much. An ideal melt year will result in shattering the old records and most probably will flirt with meeting the requirements for being declared "ICE FREE", if only for a few days in September.
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

schnitm

  • New ice
  • Posts: 5
  • Data Geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #39 on: January 13, 2017, 04:53:27 AM »
Perhaps the sea ice is all in the weak category.  Viewed globally then, the kink may not happen until it is chewed up.   In which case I expect one of the next 5 summers will give us an essentially sea ice free day.   

DaveHitz

  • New ice
  • Posts: 28
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #40 on: January 13, 2017, 06:43:15 AM »
I noticed that Neven locked the 2017 melting season thread. Although I'm certain he had good intentions, I think it was a mistake. Just wanted to go on record with that.

My sense was that Neven was trying to drive the discussion about the current season into one thread, independent of whether there happened to be a little melt on a particular winter day. That's not a judgement from Neven on what the ice is doing. It's a judgement on how best to manage the discussion about the ice.

I'm with Neven.

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1219
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #41 on: January 13, 2017, 06:56:32 AM »
I noticed that Neven locked the 2017 melting season thread. Although I'm certain he had good intentions, I think it was a mistake. Just wanted to go on record with that.

My sense was that Neven was trying to drive the discussion about the current season into one thread, independent of whether there happened to be a little melt on a particular winter day. That's not a judgement from Neven on what the ice is doing. It's a judgement on how best to manage the discussion about the ice.

I'm with Neven.

Neven is a great administrator and I mean no disrespect to him. That being said, no one is perfect and I'm sure he doesn't mind if members make their opinion known as long as it is done diplomatically and without malice. Neven has earned a lot of respect from the members of this Forum, mine included. That being said, there should always be room for one to voice dissent, if done respectfully.

DaveHitz

  • New ice
  • Posts: 28
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #42 on: January 13, 2017, 07:10:53 AM »
I noticed that Neven locked the 2017 melting season thread. Although I'm certain he had good intentions, I think it was a mistake. Just wanted to go on record with that.

My sense was that Neven was trying to drive the discussion about the current season into one thread, independent of whether there happened to be a little melt on a particular winter day. That's not a judgement from Neven on what the ice is doing. It's a judgement on how best to manage the discussion about the ice.

I'm with Neven.

Neven is a great administrator and I mean no disrespect to him. That being said, no one is perfect and I'm sure he doesn't mind if members make their opinion known as long as it is done diplomatically and without malice. Neven has earned a lot of respect from the members of this Forum, mine included. That being said, there should always be room for one to voice dissent, if done respectfully.


Agreed!

If I interpret your view on the ice correctly (that there is likely to be oddly early melt even during the "freezing season") then I think that you are correct about the ice independent of whether Neven is correct about how to manage the discussion.

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1219
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #43 on: January 13, 2017, 07:26:37 AM »
Thanks Dave. It really is a sad testament to the state of the ice, that we are even talking about melting in January.

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 795
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 151
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #44 on: January 13, 2017, 09:56:13 AM »
Perhaps the sea ice is all in the weak category.  Viewed globally then, the kink may not happen until it is chewed up.   In which case I expect one of the next 5 summers will give us an essentially sea ice free day.
I think we must accept that the majority of 'healthy ice' was gone by the volume crash of 2010? The 'Paleocryistic' ice was certainly gone by the September that year?

The difficulty is that we will see ice form over the winter night over the basin for decades to come even with warming? So we enter spring with a white ocean and for some who , like the ice , show no depth this will mean all is well for the ice?


KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Jim Williams

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #45 on: January 13, 2017, 03:01:34 PM »
My guess is that freezing season leaves the ice thin, and the extent is a record low. I'm guessing the maximum is a record for lowest max, and then the spring melting season keeps extent and area in record territory.

Until June, where the melt rates level off much like they did last year because there will be a lot more cloudy weather in the arctic in the summer, maybe due to the amount of open water, but there will again be a lot of early melting causing open water intrusions in the chukchi, beaufort, barents, kara, so there will be again a lot of warm water early on.

Even with the cloudy weather, the ice will be so weak it'll melt back a lot and just become slush, so that even if extent isn't an eye popping record, the area and volume metrics will be.

Not sure it'll get below the 1 Million sq km threshold, but it'll still be crap ice that's left, and refreeze will be really slow and weak.

I'd almost go with you here, but I'm thinking this is the Summer where there isn't enough ice left to keep the temps near 0, and that there will be a fairly late Summer warmup of the whole basin (air temps).  Not exactly sure what it will mean for next Winter, but there is some chance the melt simply continues if there is enough surface mixing.

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4327
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 783
  • Likes Given: 1238
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #46 on: January 13, 2017, 04:01:14 PM »
Very interesting discussion. First, I expect record low volume, the same for area with a high probability, and the same for extent as a realistic possibility. If last year's average melt conditions brought the ice to not so far above the record for area, this year has a much higher chance.
Physically speaking, there are several feedback loops here stemming from the relative abundance of open water in and around the arctic. Winter temps are very high, and storms keep coming in, impeding refreeze and loading the ice with snow. FDDs deficit is enormous, and volume unsurprisingly at record low and will remain that way until the end of the freezing season. The melting season will see a lot of early open water soaking up the sun in the peripheral seas, and a mobile ice pack that insists on moving into these warmed-up waters. However, the same open water feedback may very well create a cloudy and cool arctic, and the thick snow may act as an inhibitor to insolation-driven melt. In the end as usual it's a race of factors against time, but my bet is against the ice.

Let me add another question - what will be the first year where DMI 80N temps exceed 277 at some point? Is there a chance it could be 2017?

Jim Williams

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #47 on: January 13, 2017, 04:36:47 PM »
Let me add another question - what will be the first year where DMI 80N temps exceed 277 at some point? Is there a chance it could be 2017?

5 degrees above 0 Celsius?  I think it will be close near the end of Summer, but I don't think it will quite make it.  Points certainly, but not the regional.  Maybe if you add in a bit further south...

DoomInTheUK

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 221
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #48 on: January 13, 2017, 05:37:54 PM »
I think the only thing that will be a surprise now is any form of rebound.
Anything from record low extent/area/volume to full blue ocean event would be less of a shock.

I'm expecting a cooler but stormier summer. The storms doing far more damage to a weaker pack than normal.

This could be the year that the CAB is shattered and spread around the Arctic as the last of the MYI heads south for it's holidays.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3917
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 393
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« Reply #49 on: January 14, 2017, 03:28:35 AM »
We are witnessing a polar climate regime shift as it happens, moving from a frigid, desert to a humid, relatively warmer climate. I expect that we will see a high humidity melt season, cloudy, relatively cool with abnormally high precipitation. With a highly mobile ice pack, we should expect to continue to see the effects of this, perhaps another season of the "Garlic Press", perhaps high transport through the Fram or Nares. What I do expect is to see the ice in the CAB to go lickety split wherever the prevailing winds want to take it. The end result will be an even more highly fragmented ice pack, continuing a 40 year trend of increasing dispersion at minimum.

(Sorry about the chart....easier to read if you click on it.)