Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Ice-free Arctic  (Read 37060 times)

Pmt111500

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1476
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #400 on: April 17, 2018, 02:55:27 PM »

I would also think we would see deep fog banks insulating the surface from the bitter cold Arctic night above?


Yep, commonly seen here in autumn, essentially the same conditions that in lower latitudes produce 'wintry mix' (rain/snow). It takes a long time to ground to cool enough to this to stay on ground.

I'm not volunteering to any ships going to future winter Arctic, if you get clear weather it'll probably be one continuous freezing rain and splashes off the waves and if not you could be cleaning slush off the deck pretty much constantly. But of course I'm not entirely sure this will happen.
« Last Edit: April 17, 2018, 06:23:08 PM by Pmt111500 »
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Forest Dweller

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 126
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #401 on: April 17, 2018, 06:57:56 PM »
This has to be the most amusing topic i have read through so far  ;D
Lots of novice lurkers but also more qualified climate guys and it is interesting that way i think combined.
Let's not forget that many important scientific discoveries were made by total amateurs, some of which became great scientists.
As an urban wildlife researcher I find a lot of similarities.
"Novices, amateurs, citizens" or whatever one wants to call people often provide me with very good information and ideas while "experts" haven't a clue.

A smart researcher looks into every option/scenario however unlikely and works his/her butt off either proving or disproving.
You would be amazed at the stuff i find which is totally not what the status quo wants to hear.
You would be amazed at the amount of denial, corruption and information warfare which i won't bother you with.

I will mention McPherson too because the critique is mostly personal, not based on his essay which simply refers to other studies mostly.
I don't like him especially but he did a pretty good job of that and saying "think for yourself based on evidence".
He was not the first or the last, so irrelevant IMHO.

To topic;
Ice Free Arctic!
(We are all toast haha!!!)

Seriously guys....nobody knows.
Can we recocgnise the simple fact that we are in a unique situation?
Never happened before, comparisons to the big 5 extinctions of history etc...invalid.
A unique situation signifies the need for research.
It implores all of us to stop and learn.

When will the Arctic be free of ice?
Anytime....




Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3059
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 82
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #402 on: April 17, 2018, 08:33:07 PM »
Less white.  ;)

Not if you ask bbr2314. ;D

And I'm starting to agree with him. As everyone agreed here, the atmosphere north of 60 will be below freezing in winter regardless of the amount of ice in the ocean. With all that extra water over an ice less Arctic and the extra global water vapor due to global warming it will probably snow at unimaginable levels in some places.

However I'm not at all convinced that snow will last the summer or restore the sea ice in time for another full melt.

We are loading the atmosphere with energy and much of that energy is in the form of increased water vapor. Storms of all varieties will become much more intense. Anyone who has experienced a massive lake effect snow in Buffalo NY knows what this can look like. We are already seeing far more snowfall as a result of the open waters. I expect that we will begin to frequently see snowfall totals from a single storm that we have never seen before.

Just had over 2 feet of rain in Hawaii. Wait till we see the first 10 foot snowfall in say Scotland or Worchester, Massachusetts. People will die.

Not to mention sheep.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13099609.10_000_lambs_and_ewes_estimated_dead_in_storms/
« Last Edit: April 17, 2018, 09:49:37 PM by Shared Humanity »

Daniel B.

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 659
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #403 on: April 17, 2018, 11:20:08 PM »
Well said Forest,

Forecasts outside the realm of known outcomes are always quite speculative .  Whether current trends continue, increase, or decrease become increasing uncertain, the further away from established conditions.  We all have our guesses, based on which inputs we consider most important.  It is interesting and informative to hear other prognoses.  The Arctic could be ice free anytime, we just have little clue when that time will occur.

Coffee Drinker

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 66
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #404 on: April 18, 2018, 03:26:05 AM »
I still think we underestimate the influence of volcanoes on our climate. They are completely unpredictable but can have massive impact on our climate.

A few VEI7 or an VEI8 and we can throw all our climate models into the garbage.

Overall, I think the impact of volcanoes on past climate is not very well researched and many unknowns remain.

« Last Edit: April 18, 2018, 03:32:07 AM by Coffee Drinker »

crandles

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2051
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #405 on: April 18, 2018, 12:57:45 PM »
I still think we underestimate the influence of volcanoes on our climate. They are completely unpredictable but can have massive impact on our climate.

A few VEI7 or an VEI8 and we can throw all our climate models into the garbage.

Overall, I think the impact of volcanoes on past climate is not very well researched and many unknowns remain.

Why? We can measure level of sulphates scattering sunlight effect pretty well. Yes they have large effect for 2 or 3 years but then the effects diminish pretty rapidly in line with the models. Effects have been forecasted and turned out to be pretty accurate.

So why do you think we are underestimating the influence?

(I am asking because your post looks like a denier attempt to cast doubt on our climate knowledge. So wondering if you will engage in discussion or if it is a drive by post.)

Coffee Drinker

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 66
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #406 on: April 18, 2018, 01:46:16 PM »
I still think we underestimate the influence of volcanoes on our climate. They are completely unpredictable but can have massive impact on our climate.

A few VEI7 or an VEI8 and we can throw all our climate models into the garbage.

Overall, I think the impact of volcanoes on past climate is not very well researched and many unknowns remain.

Why? We can measure level of sulphates scattering sunlight effect pretty well. Yes they have large effect for 2 or 3 years but then the effects diminish pretty rapidly in line with the models. Effects have been forecasted and turned out to be pretty accurate.

So why do you think we are underestimating the influence?

(I am asking because your post looks like a denier attempt to cast doubt on our climate knowledge. So wondering if you will engage in discussion or if it is a drive by post.)

There are still lots of unknowns. Lots of "mays" and "perhaps". And the effects of volcanic activity "may" well exceed the often cited 2-3 years.

Just came across this study about Antarctic volcanic activity that may have anded glaciation in the southern hemisphere.
https://theconversation.com/two-centuries-of-continuous-volcanic-eruption-may-have-triggered-the-end-of-the-ice-age-83420

And now worries, my intention is not to cast doubt on climate knowledge. I just think its an interesting field of research that requires more attention. Every piece of the puzzle is important. And at the moment we are very far from a complete understanding.

Pmt111500

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1476
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #407 on: April 18, 2018, 02:22:45 PM »
Direct effect for larger eruption is likely the 2-3 years cited and by then it might have influence in some other metric that is better measured otherwise. No reason to exaggerate the influence. Anyway the ice core data gives pretty good constraints to the influence of smaller eruptions, there's though the season effect so f.e. an autumn small eruption might have larger influence than a spring time one, or the other way. I've used vei5 as a limit for limited global influence and the smaller ones would at most have effect hemispherically.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3109
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 268
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #408 on: April 18, 2018, 02:38:42 PM »
Recently, a large number of volcanoes have been discovered under the Western Antractica. The theory is ( I think) that as the Antarctic ice sheet melts, pressure on the volcanoes will reduce, and volcanic activity will increase. But this is many years away even in Armageddon scenarios.

However, this is, apparently, a real possibility in Iceland. But, the effect on climate would be brief.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Ken Feldman

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 132
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #409 on: April 18, 2018, 07:08:08 PM »
I still think we underestimate the influence of volcanoes on our climate. They are completely unpredictable but can have massive impact on our climate.

A few VEI7 or an VEI8 and we can throw all our climate models into the garbage.

Overall, I think the impact of volcanoes on past climate is not very well researched and many unknowns remain.

I'll agree with you that super large volcanic eruptions (VEI8) would have a very large impact on the climate and that we need to study them more.  Even large volcanic eruptions (VEI7) can have a long term (by human standards) effect on the climate.  It's now thought that increased volcanic activity in the 1300s and 1400s started the "little ice age".

And if there are a few VEI 8 eruptions, we won't be worrying about climate modeling, the few survivors on the globe will be too busy scrounging for food!  Fortunately, VEI 8 eruptions are very rare, happening about 30 million years apart.

Pinatubo was a VEI 5.  Krakatau was a VEI 6.  The Yellowstone eruptions were VEI 7, happening a few 100,000 years apart with the most recent about 650,000 years ago.

We have good measurements of the gases emitted by volcanoes and know that they are a small fraction of what humans emit.  Volcanoes emit between 180 million tons and 440 million tons of carbon dioxide per year, depending on the amount of volcanic activity.  Human emissions are on the order of 45 billion tons per year. 

In fact, we've increased the CO2 content of the atmosphere by almost 100 ppm since we started measuring it about 60 years ago, and the rate of increase is increasing to more than 20 ppm per decade.  We can see the effects of this right now and they are projected to get much worse before the end of this century.

So I think worrying about AGW and what we can do to reduce our emissions is a bit higher priority than worrying about the next VEI 7 eruption which is probably hundreds of thousands of years in the future.

rboyd

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 662
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #410 on: April 18, 2018, 08:00:51 PM »
If we use CO2 equivalents, we are increasing the GHG load by about 35ppm per decade, with atmospheric methane continuing to increase due to shale gas. The true increase in radiative forcing is well above that, given the 20 year equivalent for methane, versus the 100 year number used by NOAA (as methane concentrations are increasing should we be using an even higher number for methane?).

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html

Given that temperatures have not fallen back as much as could previously be assumed post-Nino, we could be in for quite a temperature shock in the next decade. Less ice in the Arctic (and in the Antarctic?) will help drive the positive feedbacks.

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3109
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 268
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #411 on: April 19, 2018, 01:43:49 PM »
I blame Oren - I posted back on Friday April 13 and it was my bad luck he liked the graphs on ice-free days. In that post I just looked at the number of days with area less than 5% of average maxima for each sea. Oren suggested that I also use different percentages as well.

So the first posting looks at the peripheral seas. The graphs show the number of ice-free days from 1979 to 2017 where area is less than 5%, 15% and 50% of average maxima (sort of) in previous years.

I included 50% as this is more or less where we are in September extent compared with 1979.
Comments on individual seas below are ordered from the sea with the lowest ice-free days to the highest.

Greenland Sea
At 5% or less, apart from 2002 the answer is zero days.
At 15% or less, the result is patchy with no clear trend.
At 50% or less, a trend is visible, the number of days increasing from about 100 to about 150.
However, annual variations of export of ice down the Fram Strait presumably have quite an effect on sea ice area.

Barents Sea
The loss of sea ice area in the Barents sea is far greater.
At 5% or less, number of days increased from about 50 to well over 100,
At 15% or less, number of days increased from about 100 to approaching 200,
At 50% or less, number of days increased from about 150-200 to 300-350.

Baffin bay,Bering Sea, Okhotsk, St Lawrence
Variation is not high, though overall there are modest increases in days with less ice.
The Bering Sea data does show an upward spike in the last two or three years. (Perhaps 2018 is a continuation of that trend?)

Overall, there is an increase in ice-free days of about 50 days for each of the thre measures (5%, 15% and 50%). The peripheral seas (most vulnerable to sea ice melt) thus appear to show a consistent but gradual decline in area, suggesting a gradual move to an ice-free Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3109
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 268
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #412 on: April 19, 2018, 05:11:40 PM »
I continue to blame Oren - I posted back on Friday April 13 and it was my bad luck he liked the graphs on ice-free days. In that post I just looked at the number of days with area less than 5% of average maxima for each sea. Oren suggested that I also use different percentages as well.

This second posting looks at the CAB seas (including Laptev and Kara). The graphs show the number of ice-free days from 1979 to 2017 where area is less than 5%, 15% and 50% of average maxima (sort of) in previous years.

The graphs do show the gradual advance of warming into the Kara, Chukchi, East-Siberian, and Laptev seas. Of note is that at no time is the extent in the Central Arctic or Canadian Archipelago at less than 50%. A similar set of graphs show the same result for Hudson Bay.

From 1979 to 2017 loss of sea ice area on any measure has been gradual. What is going to change that and when ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2741
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 261
  • Likes Given: 484
Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #413 on: April 20, 2018, 10:34:42 AM »
I blame Oren.
Great posts! Thank you so much gerontocrat. I blame myself as well, as I should have done the analysis myself instead of suggesting work for others... but your charts are much better looking than mine and the results more comprehensive.
In general I think the 50% charts are best at showing the trends for most seas.

Some commentary:
Quote
Greenland Sea
At 50% or less, a trend is visible, the number of days increasing from about 100 to about 150.
However, annual variations of export of ice down the Fram Strait presumably have quite an effect on sea ice area.
I didn't expect a trend for GS, but it seems the pre-melting of thin ice before it even reaches the Fram, and massive post-export melting in recent years while still in northerly waters, have caused this trend to materialize.

Quote
Barents Sea
The loss of sea ice area in the Barents sea is far greater.
At 5% or less, number of days increased from about 50 to well over 100,
At 15% or less, number of days increased from about 100 to approaching 200,
At 50% or less, number of days increased from about 150-200 to 300-350.
The Barents is one of the worst ground-zero locations for arctic change. The melting season has doubled in length, and about half of the Barents is now ice-free year-round (meaning of 365 days on the 50% chart). There was a major step change in 2006.

Quote
Baffin bay,Bering Sea, Okhotsk, St Lawrence
The Bering Sea data does show an upward spike in the last two or three years. (Perhaps 2018 is a continuation of that trend?)
Interesting. The Bering data might stand out more if the analysis was from Sep 1st to Sep 1st, as the 2017/2018 season had a very late refreeze and a very early melt.

Quote
The graphs do show the gradual advance of warming into the Kara, Chukchi, East-Siberian, and Laptev seas. Of note is that at no time is the extent in the Central Arctic or Canadian Archipelago at less than 50%. A similar set of graphs show the same result for Hudson Bay.
Chukchi - at least 50% of it has been seasonally ice-free historically, but now it's almost the whole sea (shown in the 5% chart). The 50% melting season has doubled in length from 75 to 150 days.
Kara - amazingly similar to the Chukchi in all measures.
ESS - its 5% and 15% charts separate the top years from all the rest. To be a record contender you must clear most of the ESS.
Beaufort - might show a clearer trend at 80% or 90%, if true will show that melt onset (+no more refreeze of opened cracks) is earlier, and perhaps refreeze completion is later.
CAA/CAB - should show a trend at 80% or 90%. I believe some parts of these regions have become seasonally ice-free, while other parts are still ice-covered year-round.
Interestingly, HB has a step change around 1995 in all the graphs, and has been stable since.

Quote
From 1979 to 2017 loss of sea ice area on any measure has been gradual. What is going to change that and when ?
I think the gradual assessment is true. But bear in mind, it's enough that the 5% chart consistently reaches 30 days in order to reach a seasonally ice-free state for each region. All external peripherals (plus Kara and Chukchi on most years) are already there. Laptev, Beaufort and ESS all made appearances on this chart, and when they line up we get an 2012.
The only regions that are still protected are the CAB and the CAA, and if they were split into sub-regions I think some of them would turn out to be seasonally ice-free as well. How long will these holdouts last? We'll be certain to tune in and find out.

jai mitchell

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1913
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #414 on: May 13, 2018, 06:31:36 PM »
in the absence of northern hemisphere aerosol (air pollution) emissions we would see an ice free arctic within 2 years.

Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

mitch

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 38
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #415 on: May 21, 2018, 07:14:40 PM »
McKenzie River is moving along in its spring breakup--flowing water to the east edge of the delta, and some of the river water tunneling to the shelf fast ice.  We'll see how fast the river water spread out into the Beaufort Sea.