But aren't higher temperatures a sign of higher hear transfer from the ocean and heat transfer from the ocean is a pretty direct measure of ice formation (once and surplus heat built up over summer has been vented)?
I think a key point of my argument is that a significant portion of the extra heat is not being vented outside the Arctic system, changing both temperatures and gradients between the atmosphere and the oceans. At least not in the last three years of record hot winter temperatures.
If you are believing the major mechanisms are GHGs control air temperatures and temperatures control heat loss from ocean which controls ice formation then you are ignoring a different directional causation:
GHG's are certainly important, but the biggest change in heat transfers right now seems to be advection from the peripheral atmosphere into the Arctic. I think the changes in the atmospheric currents increase the exchange of heat between the Arctic and the rest of the Northern hemisphere resulting in a much warmer arctic and a slightly cooler rest of the world. I think that's why global models are slightly overestimating global warming but Arctic models are strongly underestimating sea ice losses.
Heat loss from ocean controls both the air temperature and ice formation.
I can certainly agree that other than the sun (or lack thereof), ocean temperatures and heat transfers from ocean to atmosphere are one of the most important factors in Arctic temperatures.
If the major causation direction was GHGs controlling temperatures then temperature rises would be more throughout the year.
I think the causation line goes like this
1. GHG's cause global warming->
2. Global warming causes changes in the atmospheric currents->
3. Changes in the atmospheric currents cause an increase in advection into the Arctic->
4. Increase advection results in changes of the ice->
5. Changes of the ice cause changes in atmospheric currents->
6. Go Back to 3
I think the temperatures rises are greatest when the ice is thinner than normal.
Agreed.
So I think the major direction of causation is from heat loss from oceans
I think heat loss from the oceans will increase in impact as the ice gets thinner and is gone for longer. There will be more heat entering the ocean in summer. That heat will vent in to the atmosphere raising temperatures and slowing down ice growth. Some of that heat will go out into space, but a significant portion stays in the climate system becoming a positive feedback for temperature.
This is probably dangerous reasoning is the temp high because the ice is thin or is the ice thin because the temps are high? Better reasoning might involve figuring out which comes first.
Both are true, but the cycle started with higher temperatures turning ice thin.