Arctic - territory of dialogue

[martalunde68]

Former NATO commander Admiral James Stavridis suggests Donald Trump to look on the Arctic as an opportunity to start cooperation with Russia on wide range of issues.
Stavridis also proposed holding a summit of the nations with interests in the Arctic to launch new economic, scientific and enviromental projects in the region.
The conference was hold at the Stimson Centres' Army and Navy club on January 13 2017.

[DrTskoul]

Economic... give us a brake... I understand they will pour the n to nice Arctic is ice free but what the heck.. let's not promote exploitation....

[gerontocrat]

Dear Dr Tskoul,
I do not think the Russkies have invested in 40+ icebreakers (with more to come) in a spirit of Scientific Endeavour.
The USA is not just behind the curve; the USA is just not in the game. Is that a good or a bad thing ?

[martalunde68]

Being out of game in the Arctic issues it's at least shortsighted. And ice-breakers capability is a small part of the wider problem. The US as a major power must have all necessary tools to explore the Arctic and to protect own national interests in the region.

[DrTskoul]

Being out of game in the Arctic issues it's at least shortsighted. And ice-breakers capability is a small part of the wider problem. The US as a major power must have all necessary tools to explore the Arctic and to protect own national interests in the region.

But they want more F-35s!! Who has time for ice breakers...

[oren]

Well, think of it: the way the arctic is going, ice-breakers might not be a good long-term investment...

[martalunde68]

On October 13-15, the annual Arctic Circle Assembly was held in Reykjavik, Iceland. The range of problems which were discussed is quite traditional for meetings – regional development, economics, ecology, indigenous population rights, scientific cooperation, etc.

As for me, one of the most noticeable events was Scotland FM Nicola Sturgeon’s speech. In her statement, the politician stressed on the common challenges caused by climate changes and also emphasized the need to establish strong ties between Scotland and the northern countries in wide range of issues. However, the talk about common Arctic problems ended quickly, and the remainder of her speech Sturgeon dedicated to Brexit. Remembering that 62 % of Scottish voters voted to stay in the European Union, Sturgeon said that "the doors of Scotland will remain open to Europe."

Of course, Sturgeon's multilateral approach contrasts strongly with the increasingly isolationist policy of the UK government, but honestly, it seems that the strengthening of friendly ties with its Arctic neighbors (wait a minute! neighbors? - Edinburgh is almost 1200 km from the Arctic) is another attempt to split off from the UK.

[martalunde68]

On October, 18-19 the ministerial meeting of the Barents/Euro-Arctic region Council was held in Arkhangelsk, Russia.

The range of issues which were discussed is quite traditional for such events – economics, environment, transport, social development, etc. Sweden took over the chairmanship of the Council from the Russian Federation. Good luck to Margot Walstrom, believe that we’re able to make the Arctic the real territory of dialogue.

This ministerial meeting became the second major international event which took place in Arkhangelsk last year. On March, 29-30 the city hosted the 4th International Arctic Forum titled ‘The Arctic: Territory of Dialogue’. This conference brought together more than 2000 participants from 30 countries. Finland and Iceland leaders, Sauli Niinisto and Gudni Johannesson took part in the Forum as well as Russian president Vladimir Putin whose speech concluded the event.

Looks like Moscow remains open for cooperation in the Arctic despite the Northern countries’ support for anti-Russian sanctions.

[martalunde68]

At present the Arctic for Russia is one of the perspective drivers of economy as well as a way to reduce the negative impact of sanctions. I wouldn’t say that restrictive measures don’t affect the Russian economy but their main goal hasn’t definitely been reached. Russia’s views on the major international issues remain the same.

Moreover, the steps towards Russia taken by the Western leaders made them quit a race for the oil-rich Arctic seas exploration. In turn this has attracted into the region such countries as China and Saudi Arabia whose views on international agenda are more pragmatic. And in the light of the recent agreements these players are going to stay in the region for a long time. 

So whether the American and the European companies would be able to get hold of their slice of the Arctic oil and gas cake when the sanctions will be lifted that’s the question.

[TerryM]

At present the Arctic for Russia is one of the perspective drivers of economy as well as a way to reduce the negative impact of sanctions. I wouldn’t say that restrictive measures don’t affect the Russian economy but their main goal hasn’t definitely been reached. Russia’s views on the major international issues remain the same.

Moreover, the steps towards Russia taken by the Western leaders made them quit a race for the oil-rich Arctic seas exploration. In turn this has attracted into the region such countries as China and Saudi Arabia whose views on international agenda are more pragmatic. And in the light of the recent agreements these players are going to stay in the region for a long time. 

So whether the American and the European companies would be able to get hold of their slice of the Arctic oil and gas cake when the sanctions will be lifted that’s the question.

Why do you think the sanctions will be lifted? - and when?
Terry

[Shared Humanity]

Dear Dr Tskoul,
I do not think the Russkies have invested in 40+ icebreakers (with more to come) in a spirit of Scientific Endeavour.
The USA is not just behind the curve; the USA is just not in the game. Is that a good or a bad thing ?

Could part of the reason we're not in the game is that the Northwest passage is not reliably open for shipping while the route north of Russia is?

[TerryM]

Dear Dr Tskoul,
I do not think the Russkies have invested in 40+ icebreakers (with more to come) in a spirit of Scientific Endeavour.
The USA is not just behind the curve; the USA is just not in the game. Is that a good or a bad thing ?

Could part of the reason we're not in the game is that the Northwest passage is not reliably open for shipping while the route north of Russia is?

Ownership of the NWP is disputed & Canada has done little to grow the necessary infrastructure, Fueling stations, Emergency services, Ect. to promote the route. Canada isn't even working to get Churchill back on line after floods took out the (American owned) rail system.


Russia wins the Arctic by default.(and sanction)
Terry

[martalunde68]

Why do you think the sanctions will be lifted? - and when?
Terry

The cases of Iran and Cuba show that sanctions can be lifted or eased in time. As for Russia I think that sanctions won’t be lifted tomorrow or even next year but it will definitely happen. It may take decades or more and depends on many factors.

Actually my post isn’t about sanctions against Russia as such. It’s about China’s desire to use the situation in order to consolidate the positions in the region thereby to enjoy the economic benefits. And when western companies will return to the region, the most profitable projects will have already been in the Chinese’s and the Saudi’s pocket (though I have some doubts as for the latter).

[TerryM]

In agreement, particularly about all the good goodies being gone long before we turn our gaze northward.


Russia may flower now that she's free to rewrite her trade agreements thanks to the sanctions being imposed. She needed the push to develop more domestic manufacturing/agriculture, and already is producing bumper wheat crops.


As imports become more scarce and more expensive, domestic production will grow to fill the wants and needs of the people. Exporting raw materials can only take you so far.


Terry

[martalunde68]

I don’t think that Russia is really anxious to rewrite her trade agreements and to leave Western companies out of the game at all costs. It’s their own or rather their governments’ choice.

The Arctic has always been Russia's backyard and the region’s exploration is one of the Kremlin’s top priorities. However currently it’s quite complicated thing to do without foreign financing and technologies. At the same time the format of cooperation with China and Saudi Arabia allows Russia to get only investments but not state-of-the-art and more ecological-friendly technologies. This may be a problem in the future.