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ArcticMelt

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Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« on: January 03, 2017, 04:44:36 PM »
In this topic, I decided to compile charts of annual temperatures in the Arctic. This is important due to the fact that 2016 was the warmest year, at least for the last thousand years.

http://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2016/ArtMID/5022/ArticleID/271/Surface-Air-Temperature



Fig. 1.1. Arctic (land stations north of 60° N) and global mean annual land surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies (in °C) for the period 1900-2016 relative to the 1981-2010 mean value. Note that there were few stations in the Arctic, particularly in northern Canada, before 1940. The data are from the CRUTEM4 dataset, which is available at www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/.

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2017, 04:57:49 PM »
The annual temperature in Barrow (the northernmost Alaska)

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/815628328925151232




Neven

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2017, 05:33:17 PM »
Welcome to the ASIF, ArcticMelt (your profile is released now, so you can post freely). Nice opener. Some of these graphs may come in handy when I update the ASIG.
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ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2017, 05:49:54 PM »
Thank you dear Neven.

Annual temperature north of 70 degrees north latitude from the NCEP Reanalysis Dataset

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl


jdallen

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2017, 06:02:10 PM »
Thank you dear Neven.

Annual temperature north of 70 degrees north latitude from the NCEP Reanalysis Dataset

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl
That's pretty stark.  Very little trend in the graph until about 1990, at which point, it takes off.  Hockey sticks, anyone?
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ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2017, 06:05:38 PM »
Animation annual temperature north of 70 degrees north latitude from the NCEP Reanalysis Dataset

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/816323907451879424

Quote
Brian Brettschneider ‏@Climatologist49
The 2016 global Skin Temp from Reanalysis was easily the highest on record since 1948. Red means hottest for a spot.

https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/816080384010006528


ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2017, 06:12:51 PM »
Preliminary monthly temperature rankings (925mb, reanalysis) in the #Arctic (>70°N) over the satellite era through 2016

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/816310833852493824



https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/816098866495832064

Quote
2-meter temps from R1 Reanalysis for Alaska basically show the entire region with their warmest (red) year on record (since 1948). @AlaskaWx



https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/815739087797645312

Quote
Map showing Alaska stations that recorded their warmest year on record in 2016. The warmth was widespread. #akwx @AlaskaWx


ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2017, 06:20:49 PM »
Other cities in Alaska

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/816058022183063552

Quote
Different place, same song: 2016 marks the first time #Nome has an annual average temperature above freezing. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49



https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/816046905088061440

Quote
2016 easily warmest of the past 91 years at Bethel, Alaska; three of the five warmest years are: 2014, 2015 & 2016. #akwx @Climatologist49



https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/815744862762848256

Quote
2016 at #Kotzebue the warmest year of record, just blo freezing. No sig bend in the 70-year trend line. #akwx #arctic @Climatologist49




ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2017, 06:55:17 PM »
http://www.iopan.gda.pl/projects/AWAKE2/images/KI16.pdf

Svalbard series –Annual 1899-2013

http://polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/21349/html

Quote
LONG-TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND VARIABILITY ON SPITSBERGEN: THE EXTENDED SVALBARD AIRPORT TEMPERATURE SERIES, 1898–2012

One of the few long instrumental records available for the Arctic is the Svalbard Airport composite series that hitherto began in 1911, with observations made on Spitsbergen, the largest island in the Svalbard Archipelago. This record has now been extended to 1898 with the inclusion of observations made by hunting and scientific expeditions. Temperature has been observed almost continuously in Svalbard since 1898, although at different sites. It has therefore been possible to create one composite series for Svalbard Airport covering the period 1898–2012, and this valuable new record is presented here.

Approximate temperature in the last three years in Svalbard Airport:

2014   -2.1С
2015   -2.0С
2016   +0.1С


As a result, the average temperature on Svalbard in 2016 was also a record high for at least the last century, as well as in Alaska.

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #9 on: January 03, 2017, 07:34:28 PM »
In the Russian Arctic in 2016 could not exceed the 2012 figures (the western part) and 2007 (for the eastern part). Only on the Franz Josef Land in 2016 was warmer than 2012 (on 0,2С).

By 2013, the database BEST was used, after 2013 website http://pogodaiklimat.ru/



ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2017, 07:35:45 PM »
Continued.

seaicesailor

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #11 on: January 03, 2017, 07:42:52 PM »
In view of these graphs, I declare 2016 was a black swan because September arctic ice extent was NOT the lowest on record.
Nice plots ArcticMelt

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #12 on: January 03, 2017, 08:02:27 PM »
In view of these graphs, I declare 2016 was a black swan because September arctic ice extent was NOT the lowest on record.
Nice plots ArcticMelt

I am glad that you liked the theme.

A record low in September, it was not because of the cold summer (the record for the warmest summer stays for 2007)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C1QeCozVIAArvwO.jpg


kiwichick16

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #13 on: January 03, 2017, 09:43:47 PM »
it would appear we were lucky that August 2016 was only 22nd warmest

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #14 on: January 03, 2017, 09:45:35 PM »
In the Russian Arctic in 2016 could not exceed the 2012 figures (the western part) and 2007 (for the eastern part). Only on the Franz Josef Land in 2016 was warmer than 2012 (on 0,2С).

In addition, the record placed on the Cape Chelyuskin (-10.1С against -10.3С in 2011).

More data   
Cape Golomyany (Severnaya Zemlya) -9.6С (in 2012 -9.3С)
Cape Whalen (Chukotka) -4.0С (in 2014 -3,7С)

Neven

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #15 on: January 03, 2017, 09:53:25 PM »
As a result, the average temperature on Svalbard in 2016 was also a record high for at least the last century, as well as in Alaska.

Here's another Svalbard temperature graph from the climate4you website, which is run by climate risk denier Ole Humlum. Unfortunately, the graph only runs up to March 2015:



Maybe I should ask Humlum to update the graph. After all, back in 2011 he co-authored a paper that stated:

We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5±2 °C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009-­2020) and a decrease in the winter temperature of 6 °C.

I've quickly adapted the graph and show how that should look (Grey line compared to black line for annual average temp, light blue line compared to dark blue line for winter temp):

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ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #16 on: January 03, 2017, 10:05:23 PM »
As a result, the average temperature on Svalbard in 2016 was also a record high for at least the last century, as well as in Alaska.

Here's another Svalbard temperature graph from the climate4you website, which is run by climate risk denier Ole Humlum. Unfortunately, the graph only runs up to March 2015:

Thank you for the link. Although the record warm year in Svalbard little doubt:

http://icepeople.net/2016/11/26/positive-outlook-svalbards-average-temperature-for-year-may-be-above-freezing-for-first-time-ever/

Quote
The warmest year until now was 2006, when the average temperature was minus 1.8 degrees, but he predicts this year’s average will be about zero degrees.

“This is a little bit shocking,” Isaksen said in a prepared statement. “If you had asked me five or 10 years ago, I could not have imagined such numbers in 2016.”

DavidR

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #17 on: January 03, 2017, 10:54:44 PM »
Sea Surface temperatures have jumped remarkably in 2016. The graph shows the Arctic(67N+), High Arctic(80N+) and Global sea surface temperatures, from the NOAA-ESRL time series, converted to standard deviations based on the 1948-2016 average for each  series. To avoid the impact of the past two years the trend line shown only covers the period to 2014.  Each of the series has jumped nearly one std dev this year to around three above average.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2017, 07:23:42 AM by DavidR »
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

AbruptSLR

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #18 on: January 04, 2017, 02:37:33 AM »
The attached plot makes it clear that: a) when comparing Arctic amplification to GMSTA one needs to be careful to reference a procedure that accounts for polar bias such as Cowtan & Way; and b) how significant Arctic amplification has been to the recent increase in reported GMSTA:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #19 on: January 04, 2017, 06:22:58 PM »
Satellite measurements of lower troposphere temperature (database UAH).
http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt

North of 60 degrees temperature in 2016 exceeded the previous record (2010 year) on 0.4 C.

Red line - land and ocean, blue line - only ocean.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2017, 06:40:07 PM by ArcticMelt »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #20 on: January 04, 2017, 07:00:50 PM »
I learn something new every other day:  год = year (in Russian)
unless my internet translator is leading me astray.

Edit:  ArcticMelt had posted "(2010 год)" but apparently edited it to "(2010 year)" while my curiosity took me astray.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #21 on: January 05, 2017, 03:21:06 PM »
Satellite measurements of lower troposphere temperature (database RSS channel TLT).
http://data.remss.com/msu/monthly_time_series/

Between 60 and 85 degrees temperature in 2016 exceeded the previous record (2010 year) on 0.4-0.6 C.

Red line - only ocean, blue line - land and ocean.

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #22 on: January 07, 2017, 10:45:31 AM »
http://norwaytoday.info/news/svalbard-records-temperature-7-4-degrees-normal-december/

Quote
2016 became the warmest on Svalbard in the nearly 100 years that weather records had been kept in Longyearbyen.

According to weather statistician, Bernt Lie, three of the calendar year’s twelve months set new records for monthly mean temperature in Longyearbyen.

‘December was the 73rd consecutive month that has been warmer than normal. Since December 2010, every month has been warmer than usual. That means that monthly temperatures remained well above normal’, wrote Lie on his website, Wind and Weather.

The year’s lowest temperature in 2016 was minus 18.5 degrees, and was measured on the 8th of December. As high a temperature on the coldest day hadn’t occurred since measurements at the airport had been kept from 1975, according to Bernt Lie.

2016 also set a record for rainfall. Annual precipitation was 310.0 mm, which is 63.2% more than normal (normal period 1961-1990), thus beating the rainfall record of 267.9 mm, set in 2012, by a solid margin.

http://svalbardposten.no/nyheter/engelsk/2016-warmest-and-wettest/19.7988

Quote
2016: Warmest and wettest
This year's temperatures at Svalbard Airport are unprecedented. 'Terrifying,' a climate scientist says.
The year has been filled with troubling weather records for both temperature and precipitation, and even now a new record is at hand. The final days of December will need to have an average temperature of minus 40 degrees Celsius for 2016 to avoid being the hottest year since measurements began in 1975.
The average annual temperature at Svalbard Airport is minus 6.7 degrees, and the warmest year recorded was in 2006, when the average temperature was minus 1.7 degrees.
This year, the average temperature is minus 0.34 degrees as of Dec. 18. Wh
ich means the final days will need to plunge into a severe deep freeze to avoid the record.
"It is a very special record that is occurring this year when we're talking about more than one degree above the previous record," said Ketil Isaksen, a climate researcher at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute who focuses on northern areas and Svalbard in particular.

Clear trend
High-temperature records were set in May, July, October and November of this year. The average temperature of minus 0.7 degrees in November was 9.6 degrees above normal. It was also the 72nd straight month of above-normal temperatures. The last time the temperature was below normal was in November of 2010.
"Svalbard is one of those places on Earth heating up fastest up now and is certainly a clear signal that things are changing," Isaksen said. "There is no doubt that the Arctic is undergoing strong warming."
There has been sharp rise in temperatures during the past 20 to 30 years.
"The long-term trend is very clear," Isaksen said. "There is now an average temperature about four degrees higher than before 1980."
He said he believes the trend will continue.

Deadly consequences
A total of 292.5 millimeters of precipitation has fallen at Svalbard Airport so far this year, which is 100 millimeters above normal. It also beats the previous high record of 267.9 millimeters in 2012.
"There is often a clear link between mild weather and rainy years," Isaksen said. "Warmer air, often from the south, will be able to hold more moisture."
Much of the precipitation this year has come in the form of rain.
"It is easier to measure rain than snow, so in that more precipitation has been rain that also means more is detected," he said.
Isaksen said the usual weather has definite consequences.
"The temperature of the sea and air is high, which allows the creation of diminishing ice and further warming," he said.
This year it took an extra long time before the ground froze again in the fall.
"Usually it happens in September, but this year the ground over the permafrost was thawed until November.," Isaksen said. "When the rain came it created new situations with landslides and various forms of debris flows that you usually don't have at this time of year. This is something we have not seen before."
Mild weather episodes during winter also create challenges for wildlife. Reindeer, which rely on digging through the snow to graze, may encounter ice on the ground, which makes their food situation critical.
"In 2012 there was a high mortality rate among reindeer caused by ice and hence the lack of food," Isaksen said.

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #23 on: January 07, 2017, 11:02:46 AM »
http://icepeople.net/2017/01/02/frighteningly-ordinary-record-high-temperatures-in-2016-nothing-new-for-longyearbyen-or-earth/

Quote
January 2, 2017
At this point it’s not really news to set a record-high temperature for a month or year since it’s an ongoing thing in Longyearbyen and much of the rest of the world. But that doesn’t mean it’s any less alarming for experts analyzing the long-term trends after the town’s warmest and wettest year in recorded history.
The average temperature for the year was minus 0.1 degrees Celsius, or 6.5 degrees Celsius above normal, according to Bernt Lie, a weather statistician who operates the website Vær og Vind (Weather and Wind). In addition, a record 310 millimeters of precipitation fell during the year, 63.2 percent more than normal and soundly topping the previous record of 267.9 millimeters in 2012.
“In July, October and November there was record heat,” he wrote.
Temperatures at Svalbard Airport in December were 7.4 degrees Celsius above normal, the 73rd straight month of above average temperatures, according to Lie.
Despite the longer-term records, there was only one daily high-temperature record of 10.3 degrees set in October. There was also only one low-temperature daily record of minus 18.5 degrees set on dec. 8.
“So few coldest days has not occurred since measures began at the airport in 1975,” Lie wrote.
The situation in Longyearbyen is hardly unique. The average global temperature record also set a new high in 2016, as did virtually every region of the Arctic.
Lie, in his summary of Longyearbyen’s weather statistics for 2016, called the trend here a “frightening development.”
“Over the last 26 years it has become more than 2.2 degrees (exactly 2.28 degrees) warmer in this populated part of the Arctic,” he wrote. “Continued temperature rise at the same pace in Longyearbyen until the year 2050 will provide a 30-year average temperature for the year of minus 1.4 degrees…or a rise of more than five degrees in 60 years.”

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #24 on: January 16, 2017, 09:53:20 PM »
https://twitter.com/Permafrostee/status/820914541328560129

Quote
Brendan O'Neill

Add this to the pile with sea ice @EricHolthaus @ZLabe: 2016 was the warmest year in Svalbard #climatechange


shmengie

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #25 on: January 17, 2017, 09:24:36 PM »
Hovering around 2016 temps.  An ERA40 for 2010-2016 would line up a lot better than the old 58-2002 :o
Professor Trump, who'd thought it was that complicated?

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #26 on: January 20, 2017, 05:19:34 PM »
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/customize.html

Annual GISS temperature in the Arctic.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2017, 05:29:06 PM by ArcticMelt »

Jim Williams

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #27 on: January 20, 2017, 08:34:44 PM »
Hovering around 2016 temps.  An ERA40 for 2010-2016 would line up a lot better than the old 58-2002 :o

We all know the problem with moving the baseline.  Might lineup a lot better....so would smoothing to 2016.

I really would like numbers for the 1840s....oh well...have a fish.

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #28 on: January 27, 2017, 04:29:45 AM »
http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/

Greenland Station Locations and Annual Mean Temperature Change

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #29 on: February 17, 2017, 09:21:20 AM »
In the GISS base added 2016 year. Current сharts annual temperatures for different regions of the Arctic.

Greenland.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 09:36:57 AM by ArcticMelt »

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #30 on: February 17, 2017, 09:22:32 AM »
Canada.

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #31 on: February 17, 2017, 09:23:45 AM »
Alaska.

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #32 on: February 17, 2017, 09:24:45 AM »
Iceland.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 09:34:02 AM by ArcticMelt »

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #33 on: February 17, 2017, 09:25:50 AM »
Svalbard and northern Norway.

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #34 on: February 17, 2017, 09:27:34 AM »
The western part of the Russian Arctic.

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #35 on: February 17, 2017, 09:30:58 AM »
Siberia.

ArcticMelt

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Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« Reply #36 on: February 22, 2017, 04:09:55 PM »
Mean annual surface air temperature (MAAT) anomaly 70-90oN compared to the WMO normal period 1961-1990, as estimated by Hadley CRUT. HadCRUT4 temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) has been used to prepare the diagram. The number of high latitude meteorological stations is low in the early part of the 20th century, but increased from 1923 and especially 1933. Last year shown: 2016. Latest update: 20 January 2017.

http://climate4you.com/