Poll: 2017 PIOMAS Maximum Monthly Figure

[gerontocrat]

Ok, so I have to admit that a guess of 20,173 km3 for April average volume is not entirely beyond evidence or logic,

BUT:-
I still believe that such a result is at the edge of reason because:-

- the evidence from previous years as shown on this thread suggests a reduction in April average volume from the March 31 figure is unlikely,
- as of today the melting season is still very hesitant,
- Arctic temperature anomalies, both overall from cci-reanalyzer and above 80N from DMI, are low and going down for at least a few days,
- in the first week in April there seems to have been a sharp increase in volume.

https://14adebb0-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/jaxa-amsr2-volume.png?attachauth=ANoY7corjsX1M1gyRc91L0-bHKLE2r35gV91vLWHswm8Z-kQy7yqvtIFZRao3LtGeEDkZ7d-OLfXjzz4auzq-8tzBPnCtMCBGo7B9gjrrkiRCshgWmIfDScZkg_hXwolubC0NouUHQLKBaykTqHPC8rYSW9yajFAZxrIaq0bltX41JPqiD8OKjetaNoW709rAEX1GXa3iYvUpskWBgtiO0lc_j7agQ0sA1Psvz44d8KLSPG5xaB2tlsqlu_DA-K84osg11vEZbY_3BkECDLkICRNPbcCX-nuqQ%3D%3D&attredirects=0

As in all such predictions - but what do I know?

[DavidR]

"April 2017 sea ice  volume was 20,600 km3 ,  1800 km3 below the previous record from  April in 2011. "

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

So the winner is: half the voters, and the other half weren't far off.


The April growth was equivalent to previous years with about 1000 km3 gained during April.

Average ice thickness in April 2017 over the PIOMAS  domain is also the lowest on record (Fig 4.) Average ice thickness from PIOMAS is 20cm thinner than the last few years and about 80 cm thinner than in 1980.   

[Let It Go]

"April 2017 sea ice  volume was 20,600 km3 ,  1800 km3 below the previous record from  April in 2011. "

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

So the winner is: half the voters, and the other half weren't far off.


 

Your own words say it will be the month in 2017 in which the maximum is achieved. How can you already call the winner. I'm still expecting a december surprise [sarcasm off]

Even in a friendly poll like this it pays to make the winning value clear. It is the highest monthly average this year, regardless of weather it is , March, April, May or December.  If you  hold out  for a winning figure in December you  may  be on your own I  suspect.

[Paddy]

There goes my perfect guesswork record this year (one BIN too high on this poll).

[DavidR]

So the winner is: half the voters, and the other half weren't far off.

Your own words say it will be the month in 2017 in which the maximum is achieved. How can you already call the winner. I'm still expecting a december surprise

I think we would all appreciate a gift like that  from Santa! 
Particularly Paddy

[Darvince]

Unfortunately I think the only way to achieve that would be nuclear war

Of course, nuclear war this year is the likeliest it has been since the early 80s...