Old normal weather

[Aluminium]

Sometimes the weather temporarily returns to "old normal". It may seem unusual these days. When it happens in winter, it may be even dangerous. Who cares about winter because of global warming?

Currently I see pretty snowy landscapes and perfect winter forecast for the next 10 days. Not something you can expect this early every year. Once I didn't see winter at all.

[kassy]

I will probably merge this with Weird weather later.

One question is if a return to an old normal winter is more dangerous the new normal. And a follow up question is how we actually determine how to define them.

To the first question. As long as it is still familiar enough to people i don´t see why having an old school winter with cold and snow in the proper months would be dangerous. We still have the winter tires for the car and snow shovel somewhere in the house.

The most noticable ´new winters´ are those which are warmer , or which start later in time or end much earlier. Lets call them clearly warmer winters.

In the last years we have seen more and more rain events with extreme totals so maybe we could get those...and that would probably more dangerous?

[The Walrus]

I will probably merge this with Weird weather later.

One question is if a return to an old normal winter is more dangerous the new normal. And a follow up question is how we actually determine how to define them.

To the first question. As long as it is still familiar enough to people i don´t see why having an old school winter with cold and snow in the proper months would be dangerous. We still have the winter tires for the car and snow shovel somewhere in the house.

The most noticable ´new winters´ are those which are warmer , or which start later in time or end much earlier. Lets call them clearly warmer winters.

In the last years we have seen more and more rain events with extreme totals so maybe we could get those...and that would probably more dangerous?

Any time there is a change, it can become a problem for those used to the old.  During a long dry period, people forget about the olden days and build in flood plains.  When the rains return, they get washed out.  Conversely, drier regions that become bountiful due to increased rainfall can recruit new farmers, who may be unaware of the past dryness.  In the U.S., the quieter hurricane decades of the 70s and 80s resulted in a buildup in the southern coastal areas - granted the warm ocean views contributed greatly.  The resurgence of "old normal" hurricane seasons resulted in much greater damage.  The change can be troublesome, if people are not prepared.

[kassy]

Maybe but that works over multiple decades. While we have has some weird winters compared to earlier most still have freezing, snow or ice at some time so it is not the same case.

The coastal build up is probably also related to a ton of factors outside hurricane activity most of which is off topic but another example is farmers taking down hedges that were build to protect the soil from blowing away in the dust bowel area.

[Aluminium]

One question is if a return to an old normal winter is more dangerous the new normal. And a follow up question is how we actually determine how to define them.

To the first question. As long as it is still familiar enough to people i don´t see why having an old school winter with cold and snow in the proper months would be dangerous. We still have the winter tires for the car and snow shovel somewhere in the house.

The most noticable ´new winters´ are those which are warmer , or which start later in time or end much earlier. Lets call them clearly warmer winters.

In the last years we have seen more and more rain events with extreme totals so maybe we could get those...and that would probably more dangerous?

At least one month should be below zero to call it winter. Though it depends on old normal.

For now, most of us are not unprepared. Still, someone may overestimate positive effects of climate change. I consider warmer winters as a positive effect for obvious reasons. Snow is one potential problem and frost is another. -5°C and -20°C and -30°C are quite different for normal life. Also some of recently developed tech may ignore possibility of old school winter. Will it work?

We do have more dangerous events. Much sooner than we'll possibly get rid of dangerous frost.

[HapHazard]

"old normal" winters here means enough snow at higher elevations to provide enough meltwater during non-winter for, well, everything we use water for downstream, and including getting through drought (slow release of meltwater into soil over time > greener forest/less intense fires).

No snow on the ground here yet. Latest date in our 15ish years here. (rural BC)

[Aluminium]

Now -21°C in Saint Petersburg, coldest December day since 2002. Strangely, temperatures below -20°C were quite common in December (2002, 2001, 1997, 1996, 1995...). Then it ended abruptly and returned after 19 years.

[blu_ice]

Electricity spot rate will exceed 1.2 euros per kWh in Finland on Tuesday morning. Cold weather and almost no wind.

Makes one wonder what the future brings when the remaining fossil fuel plants are replaced by renewables. Fortunately there will be new nuclear also.

[neal]

"Tornado Alley" moving eastward

....In 2016, my students and I published the first paper that clearly showed, statistically, the emergence of another center of tornado activity in the Southeast, centered around Alabama.

Oklahoma still has tornadoes, of course. But the statistical center has moved. Other research since then has found similar shifts.

We found a notable decrease in both the total number of tornadoes and days with tornadoes in the traditional Tornado Alley in the central plains. At the same time, we found an increase in tornado numbers in what’s been dubbed Dixie Alley, extending from Mississippi through Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Indiana.

In the Great Plains, drier air in the western boundary of traditional Tornado Alley probably has something to do with the fact that tornadoes are a declining risk in Oklahoma while wildfire risk is growing.

Research by other scientists suggests that the dry line between the wetter Eastern U.S. and the drier Western U.S., historically around the 100th meridian, has shifted eastward by about 140 miles (225 km) since the late 1800s. The dry line can be a boundary for convection – the rising of warm air and sinking of colder air that can fuel storms...



https://earthsky.org/earth/tornado-alley-dixie-climate-change/

[Shared Humanity]

As long as it stays south of the Mason-Dixon Line, it'll be AGW denying Republican states that take a beating. 

[Tor Bejnar]

So that's why Charles Mason and Jeremiah Dixon were surveying where they were in the 1760s!   They were early Weathermen [take your pick] ...  And we thought it was a political border dispute.

[neal]

Amazing high resolution daylight video of tornado yesterday

https://mobile.twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1520542108033159168

[The Walrus]

As long as it stays south of the Mason-Dixon Line, it'll be AGW denying Republican states that take a beating. 

It has always been the Republican states that take a beating from tornadoes.  At least since the solid south switched allegiances.

[be cause]

 .. and republican presidents can claim more and bigger hurricanes than their democratic counterparts .