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ggelsrinc

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #400 on: June 27, 2013, 03:36:44 PM »
Just exactly why can't these claims be supported by the past warming we all agree has happened?
Firstly, you're talking about events that happened long before the human race even existed - and therefore there simply is no past evidence for the impacts on our species - as the human race has not experienced these conditions before. Not only did we not exist before, but we also weren't practising and depending upon agriculture before in the context of large climatic shifts (to the very limited extent our species has experienced them at all). Therefore for some elements of discussion there is no possibility of direct evidence from the past.

Secondly, large amounts of scientific evidence have been introduced at various points in this (extensive) thread to support certain assertions - you've just generally chosen to ignore it and retreat into claims that the Eemian is your proof against them. By cherry picking the last time the Arctic was ice free (which ignores the larger context of the rest of the earth system) or Eemian stabilisation conditions for 400ppm (which we're flying past right now, and anyway stabilisation conditions ignores the question of transient conditions on the way to stabilisation, as well as the lack of human history under either the transition or stabilisation regime for even 400ppm) - you're effectively choosing to reject the evidence presented.

Your world does sound appealing - a little gentle warming, an increase in agricultural production with the power of the market to arbitrarily scale it up to meet demand, no major consequences or structural threats to humanity, etc. I know that isn't precisely what you're trying to say (you've acknowledged that climate change is a potentially serious problem after all), but it is how it comes across when you put so much effort into contesting the more serious problems we face. It skews how you are perceived as you are therefore discussing proportionately less whatever more mild problems you expect to happen (I assume you do expect at least some).

Nonetheless I'm optimistic other people who read the thread will find it informative, and potentially even weigh in with opinions in either direction (preferably supported by a coherent argument that sits better than flat out denying the possibilities - and I have to admit you have at least presented some arguments, even if I haven't often accepted them as convincing).

I've made it clear I'm also talking about events that happened during the satellite era. Mankind was around during the HTM and responded by inventing agriculture and the first cities. Homo Sapiens are believed to have reached anatomical modernity about 200,000 years ago, long before the Eemian.

I've also made it clear that finding a scientific opinion that agrees with yours isn't evidence. A claim is not scientific evidence. A claim contrary to scientific evidence isn't even science. 

Discussing the last time the Earth was arctic sea ice free is not cherry picking, particularly when the discussion is about what will happen when the Earth becomes arctic sea ice free . Ignoring it is cherry picking and you ignore it because it doesn't support what you claim will happen.

The "power of the market to arbitrarily scale it up to meet demand" has nothing to do with agriculture. The reality is people aren't going to produce food more than the market will bear. It's a waste of their time and resources. Your comment makes me wonder if you even know what I mean by market. Government policies of price supports for food include policies to limit production so there isn't a large surplus forcing down the price.

There has been a lot of "kettle black calling" on this thread. That chart I posted showing an increase in catastrophes was discovered on a global warming video and used by me to refute AGW deniers on many occasions. Their typical position is global warming isn't happening and they don't want to pay for unnecessary changes. I use that chart as proof they are already and have been paying a price for global warming. The evidence shows insurance companies assessing the risk since '73 and charging for it.

Quote
Just exactly why can't these claims be supported by the past warming we all agree has happened?

Don't try to hide back in the thermal maximums! Can you explain why the evidence of the recent past doesn't support what you say will happen in the future. If 70% of the Biologist, 15 years ago, make a 30 year claim about mass extinction, why can't they explain the evidence showing a net of 2 extinctions in the last yearly report. They made their predictions about 15 and a half years ago in Jan and Feb of 1998 when they were surveyed. I imagine it took them many years before that to form their opinion. Can you explain a satellite record showing greening and food production increasing during a period with increases in weather related catastrophes? The future is a great place for people making predictions to try to hide in, but if they are suggesting cause and effect relationships that have existed in the past, then they are obligated to explain why those cause and effect relationships didn't manifest themselves in the past.

 

 

ritter

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #401 on: June 27, 2013, 07:43:05 PM »
Quote
Sea level along Maryland's shorelines could rise two feet by 2050, according to new report
http://phys.org/news/2013-06-sea-maryland-shorelines-feet.html
Quote
The independent, scientific report recommends that is it is prudent to plan for sea level to be 2.1 feet higher in 2050 along Maryland's shorelines than it was in 2000 in order to accommodate the high end of the range of the panel's projections. Maryland has 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands that will be impacted. The experts' best estimate for the amount of sea level rise in 2050 is 1.4 feet. It is unlikely to be less than 0.9 feet or greater than 2.1 feet. Their best estimate for sea level rise by 2100 is 3.7 feet. They concluded that it is unlikely to be less than 2.1 feet or more than 5.7 feet based on current scientific understanding.

Yeah, it's getting bad fast. I work with civil engineers and witness first hand how difficult it can be to implement what seem to be pretty straightforward and simple projects. The thought of implementing adaptation measures sufficient to protect development along 3,100 miles of shoreline within 35 years is absolutely mind boggling. And Maryland represents just one small state--a tiny bit of the US shoreline.

Laurent

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #402 on: June 27, 2013, 07:58:27 PM »
Expect some new studies along the way saying something like "oouuppss sorry, it would be a little bit more this year" !!!

wili

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #403 on: June 27, 2013, 10:55:34 PM »
I just sent that article to relatives who have a house 10 feet above sea level on Chesapeake Bay. During Isabel 10 years ago, the water came half way up the slope toward their house on both sides. They acknowledge that the next storm could be worse.

They have no plans of selling.

I did not point out that the next storm will come:

--On top of a sea probably an inch or two higher (or more)
--In an atmosphere with more water vapor to super-power the storm
--From over an ocean that will be a good bit warmer, also super-powering the storm
--Within an atmosphere that is warmer, also super-powering the storm
--Directed by climate patterns that are likely to do strange and dangerous things, as we saw with Sandy...

Not sure how or whether to continue the conversation with them. I think they are planning to retire to there in a couple years.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Shared Humanity

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #404 on: June 28, 2013, 05:31:36 AM »
Quote
Sea level along Maryland's shorelines could rise two feet by 2050, according to new report
http://phys.org/news/2013-06-sea-maryland-shorelines-feet.html
Quote
The independent, scientific report recommends that is it is prudent to plan for sea level to be 2.1 feet higher in 2050 along Maryland's shorelines than it was in 2000 in order to accommodate the high end of the range of the panel's projections. Maryland has 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands that will be impacted. The experts' best estimate for the amount of sea level rise in 2050 is 1.4 feet. It is unlikely to be less than 0.9 feet or greater than 2.1 feet. Their best estimate for sea level rise by 2100 is 3.7 feet. They concluded that it is unlikely to be less than 2.1 feet or more than 5.7 feet based on current scientific understanding.

Yeah, it's getting bad fast. I work with civil engineers and witness first hand how difficult it can be to implement what seem to be pretty straightforward and simple projects. The thought of implementing adaptation measures sufficient to protect development along 3,100 miles of shoreline within 35 years is absolutely mind boggling. And Maryland represents just one small state--a tiny bit of the US shoreline.

While Maryland is a small state, it actually has a very long and vulnerable shoreline. In fact, it rivals the state of Texas which has a shoreline of just under 3,700 miles. I also think those estimates are low. Due to the Gulf Stream, the mid Atlantic is expected to have a sea level rise that is higher than average.

JimD

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #405 on: July 24, 2013, 10:01:35 PM »
Population Apocalypse!!

The Four Horsemen are diligently sharpening their swords.

The UN just published their latest population projections based upon the 2010 census numbers.  Guess what?  It turns out that in just the last 10 years that reductions in fertility rates have not just bottomed in many planes but are rising. 

Quote
Until just a couple weeks ago, the great global food challenge was how to feed 9 billion people in 2050. But no longer — the number of mid-century mouths just jumped. Now it’s projected to be 9.6 billion, closing in on double-digit billions. And forget about expectations that world population will stabilize this century: By 2100, according to the latest projections, the number of people on the planet will hit 10.9 billion — and will still be growing by 10 million a year.

This new estimate is 700 million higher than the last one.  So all the talk about how hard it is going to be to feed the 9 billion now has to adjust to a number 8% higher.  This is truly non-trivial and points to the futility of all the types of BAU efforts.  We are the Red Queen personified.  Nothing is fixable until population is under control and shrinking fast.  Our four buddies above are going to help us out on that since we seem incapable of intelligent action.

As usual the UN demographers are thinking with blinders on.  A review of some of their numbers is entertaining to say the least.  Ridiculous assumptions.  There is no chance that their numbers will turn out right as the wheels will come off long before 2100.  There is no consideration of AGW, energy supply issues, fresh water supply issues, etc. 

I have stated repeatedly that I thought significant collapse was due to occur circa 2050 due to the inability of the Industrial Agricultural system being able to generate enough food to feed the almost 9 billion of the Earth's inhabitants any longer.  I must admit that, in light of the rising population numbers, that 2050 is looking increasingly unlikely.   Perhaps 2045?

http://e360.yale.edu/feature/our_overcrowded_planet_a_failure_of_family_planning/2666/

http://esa.un.org/wpp/index.htm
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Laurent

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #406 on: August 24, 2013, 07:15:40 PM »
In 8 Months, Humanity Exhausts Earth's Budget for the Year
http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/earth_overshoot_day/

pikaia

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #407 on: August 24, 2013, 07:47:47 PM »
In 8 Months, Humanity Exhausts Earth's Budget for the Year
http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/earth_overshoot_day/

I really don't understand what that means. There are many resources, all being used and replenished at various rates (and some are not being replenished at all), so how can you put a single meaningful figure on it? Do you make some sort of arbitrarily weighted average? It all seems like pseudo-science to me.

Laurent

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #408 on: August 24, 2013, 08:29:51 PM »
It is not me Pikaia !
Pseudo science !?
Let's see what they have to say...it seems pretty ok...I won't dig much more
I don't need this kind of study to know that I have to change my life style!
http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/footprint_data_and_results/

domen_

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #409 on: September 03, 2013, 01:00:48 AM »
This is an interesting paper about possible civilization collapse:
Quote
Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?

Abstract

Environmental problems have contributed to numerous collapses of civilizations in the past. Now, for the first time, a global collapse appears likely. Overpopulation, overconsumption by the rich and poor choices of technologies are major drivers; dramatic cultural change provides the main hope of averting calamity.
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1754/20122845.full

It's written in a language that layman can understand, I recommend it. It's a good overview of problems that we are currently facing.

wili

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #410 on: September 03, 2013, 01:19:41 AM »
"There are many resources, all being used and replenished at various rates (and some are not being replenished at all), so how can you put a single meaningful figure on it?"

This has been a major field of study since the '90s or so. IIRC, Wackernagel has been a leader in this field.

The main thing is that resources are limited. It is of course difficult to get exact figures. But the main economy counts them at less than nothing--the faster they are exploited the better it is seen as being for the economy. That is what is really "unscientific" and what should be roundly ridiculed.

It is as if someone told you that it is good for you to chop parts of your body off and proceeded to do so.

When you protest that those parts are very valuable to you, and if you keep losing them at this rate you will be dead in X number of days, someone said:

"Well, some parts of your body are being replenished at various rates (and some are not being replenished at all), so how can you put a single meaningful figure on it? Your claim sounds like pseudo-science to me."
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

fishmahboi

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #411 on: September 03, 2013, 10:18:15 AM »
"There are many resources, all being used and replenished at various rates (and some are not being replenished at all), so how can you put a single meaningful figure on it?"

This has been a major field of study since the '90s or so. IIRC, Wackernagel has been a leader in this field.

The main thing is that resources are limited. It is of course difficult to get exact figures. But the main economy counts them at less than nothing--the faster they are exploited the better it is seen as being for the economy. That is what is really "unscientific" and what should be roundly ridiculed.

It is as if someone told you that it is good for you to chop parts of your body off and proceeded to do so.

When you protest that those parts are very valuable to you, and if you keep losing them at this rate you will be dead in X number of days, someone said:

"Well, some parts of your body are being replenished at various rates (and some are not being replenished at all), so how can you put a single meaningful figure on it? Your claim sounds like pseudo-science to me."

Well said Wili, at some point the earth will be unable to provide any resources for humans to utilize.


I thought I would like to ask, with regards When and How Bad, with the strong positive dipole being discussed in the Arctic Ice thread, I was wondering if this year's refreeze season could plant the seeds needed for societal collapse, i.e poor refreeze due to constant storms leads to the disappearance of the ice in late June/ Early July and bring about the rapid change to hothouse like conditions that were present the last time Carbon Dioxide was at 400PPM?

anonymous

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #412 on: September 03, 2013, 10:29:50 AM »
Quote
Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?

http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1754/20122845.full
Thanks for pointing to this paper. Two sentences from the conclusion I believe worth to replicate here again:

Humanity has the assets to get the job done, but the odds of avoiding collapse seem small because the risks are clearly not obvious to most people and the classic signs of impending collapse, especially diminishing returns to complexity, are everywhere. One central psychological barrier to taking dramatic action is the distribution of costs and benefits through time: the costs up front, the benefits accruing largely to unknown people in the future.

It happens I'm currently reading "Chances are ..." written by Ellen and Michael Kaplan, a great book which also explores game theory to some extent (and weather for that matter). From that point of view everyone's options are determined by the prisoner's dilemma and there is no optimal outcome. Actually everyone behaves quite rational facing e.g. cheap fossils and expensive alternatives while anticipating the decision process of his/her fellow human beings. Everyone means you and me plus representatives of members of the UN.

Combining the paper and the book I think no one will act against the rules of this game we are currently in. The question bothering me right now is how can we change the game and its rules, so that future generations are part of the equation.

Or as Gaucho Marx put it: What have future generations ever done for us?

wili

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #413 on: September 03, 2013, 04:02:43 PM »
Sounds like a good book, but keep in mind that game theories generally assume a radically atomized, self-maximizing "homo-economicus." Given the influence of neo-classical economics on the culture, this has become a rather self fulfilling philosophy of human nature. But in history, people have often acted not in their narrow self interest, but rather in the interest of the community and, yes, of future generations.

"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

JimD

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #414 on: September 03, 2013, 06:37:33 PM »
 domen

Great find on that paper.  It is interesting to see how much of what we have talked about in various topics found tis way into this paper.  We are not doing to bad in terms of covering the relevant subjects related to collapse here on the Forum.  The paper does an excellent job of covering all the major issues. 

I only found a few things in the paper that I believe are in error but I could have predicted which ones they were going to be before I started reading.  They must come to politically correct answers and do not dare say the conclusion that the data leads too.

We are much further past the carrying capacity than they state because they use such a sloppy metric of sustainability.  They do seem to recognize that population is the key problem, but then they seem to think it is fixable by just lowering fertility.  They recognize that basic human nature is what drives us to make all of these mistakes we are  making and then present a bunch of mush to try and imply that we can consciously overcome it. And last but not least is the first two sentences of their conclusion

Quote
Do we think global society can avoid a collapse in this century? The answer is yes, because modern society has shown some capacity to deal with long-term threats, at least if they are obvious or continuously brought to attention (think of the risks of nuclear conflict).

Which clearly is not supported by their text.  The only rational conclusion to derive from their text is that if we do not panic soon we are screwed.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

wili

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #415 on: September 03, 2013, 10:32:56 PM »
Yes, obvious and constantly brought to their attention is exactly the opposite of, say, the current mass extinction event or ocean acidification. And the number of denialists out there shows that GW and resource depletion issues are far from obvious to many, and they also do not get a tiny fraction of the MSM attention they need to be getting.

So that's a big "if."

And even the nuclear issue they bring up is not yet conclusive. We have not hammered together agreements internationally that has lead to the total destruction of all nuclear warheads, even though pretty much everyone agreed that using them even as a deterrent was (famously) "MAD." And of course, we may still all blow each other to kingdom come if some system malfunctions or is lunatic makes his way to the button...
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

anonymous

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #416 on: September 03, 2013, 11:33:00 PM »
But in history, people have often acted not in their narrow self interest, but rather in the interest of the community and, yes, of future generations.
Would you mind to bring up an example? Even in the case of Ozone and the Montreal Protocol I would say short term utility was the major factor, despite the obvious harm to future generations.

wili

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #417 on: September 04, 2013, 04:18:02 AM »
Well, the modeled "Tragedy of the Commons" claims that the more people have access to an area that all have equal access to, the more rapidly it will be degraded, since each person has a narrow interest in exploiting it to their maximum benefit at the fastest rate possible. But it turns out this idea of maximizing a resource shared by all is mostly what economists (and the politicians, corporations, and governments they advise) rather than how most people think or how they acted it history.

Herman Daly (former chief economist for World Bank, iirc, who now says that neo-classical economics is an ideology parading as a discipline, or something like that) sites many studies of this in his various books and essays.

Suffice it for now to point out that the actual historical "Commons"--usually common grazing land in rural (and even urban) British communities--usually were maintained quite well even with many people using them. The history of the enclosure of these commons is long and complex, but usually it was not the act of many, but of one person with a great deal of power and with a nascent capitalist economics ideology (essentially, that greed is good) who deprived everyone else from use of the commons ("enclosed" them), and then often over grazed them. 

Elinor Ostrum, a recent Nobel Prize winner in economics, has done more nuanced and up-to-date studies of what does and doesn't make for a viable commons based on observations of many real-life examples rather than pure theorizing. Search around under Daly and Ostrum and Commons will probably get you all the relevant material, but let me know if you have trouble.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bruce Steele

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #418 on: September 04, 2013, 05:31:55 AM »
Having had personal experience with the commons and regulation of common property( the ocean ) I think there are plenty of examples of self regulation by various fishing communities. Sea urchins have been cast as some sort villain in U.S. environmental mythology. I don't want to share the whole sea otter, kelp, sea urchin pathos with you all but not much about that myth has changed in over forty years. So back when we started the sea urchin dive industry in Calififornia the poor urchins were rivaled enough that we could pick as many as we wanted any where( almost ) any size , any season and everybody seemed to be happy to more or less eradicate them. After a decade or so it was apperent to some of us that going further and further to get a good load meant we needed to impose some regulations upon ourselves. We had meetings with each other regarding biological protections ,like size limits, and economic decisions like controlling entry into the urchin dive fishery. After a couple years of discussions with regulatory authorities we got a combination of both kinds of controls although it took another year or two before wardens were issued calipers to measure urchins and enforce the regulations...again with industry badgering for regulation and enforcement. If all this seems perfectly rational well I guess it is, a bunch of guys fishing the commons self regulate. You would think someone might want to know how California Current Fisheries are well managed without any ( zero  ) overfishing. Not a single species.  Yes there are about five species of rockfish in rebuilding programs because they were overfished( < 25% of virgin biomass) but they are recovering. So bottom line zero extinctions and all fished stocks at above 25% of virgin biomass.    Anyway for what it's worth I put a lot of effort into getting size limits imposed upon my fishery 30 years ago and we are still diving urchins.  I was trying to protect the urchins as much as I thought about maintaining an industry. Our dive industry had to fight against a myth that more or less promoted sea urchin  eradication. The myth lives on, sometimes things aren't how the common wisdom would have you believe. The self interest human gene hardwired into our decision processes is one more myth as far as I am concerned. It is certainly a battle worth the fight. There are plenty of examples of good husbandry of farms and yes communal lands and seas.   Elinor Ostrum is a bit of a saint, thanks Wili.   

Anne

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #419 on: September 04, 2013, 08:56:03 AM »
By coincidence, I've just been reading Tim Harford's essay on Hardin and Ostrom in last weekend's FT magazine. It's a good introduction to the idea of management of the commons. You can find the essay on his website here, thus avoiding the FT log-in. (Scroll down for "Do you believe in sharing?")

wili

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #420 on: September 04, 2013, 12:30:59 PM »
Wow, thanks for the great insights and resources. This is not a core area of my expertise, so it's good to hear from folks that are working more extensively in these issues and have recent literature on it.

Not being from CA, I did not know that they had been so reviled. I'd like to hear more about how that came about some time. Thanks for helping to establish limits.

I think most traditional, small-scale human communities/cultures establish such limits on themselves to help insure long-term prosperity. In Pacific island communities, the term for these limits was/is tapu (or kapu in Hawaiian iirc), the source of our "taboo." Industrial societies tend to see these traditional self-imposed limits as silly, superstitious, backward...But mostly they are very practical, especially if ones eye is for communal, long term prosperity, not "more for me now."

I do think that this selfish gene is part of our make up, just not as overwhelmingly dominant as mainstream economic theory tends to assume. In fact, again, in most traditional communities, including earlier in the West, a major aspect of social mores was the control of the urge of the individual toward self-aggrandizement.

Just look at the seven deadly sins, most of which are name, and so try to control, aspects of the individual's propensity toward enlarging itself at the expense of others--pride, avarice, envy, glutony...

 Those small scale societies that don't imposes such limits either wipe out their local resources and so themselves, or they have to move on to other territories, or dominate neighbor's resources (which would ultimately lead to empire, and to not being small-scale communities).

But back to the main theme of the thread:
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2013/09/03-0?

Why Global Warming Will Be Far Worse, Far Sooner, Than Forecasts Predict

   
Quote
The International Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report on global warming – dubbed AR5 – is due out in 2014, but information is leaking out already, and once again, it is likely to be outdated on the day it’s released.

    Worse, it will substantially understate both the rate and pace of warming, and it’s consequences. Here’s why.

    Outdated on day of release: The IPCC process virtually assures that all the research used in the report will be several years old. Since it only uses peer reviewed work and a consensus process, it has a long lead-time and a least common denominator data set. The latest research and any research that challenges established theory is left on the cutting room floor.

    For example, in the AR 4 – released in 2007 -- the IPCC forecast sea level rise to be, at most, 59 centimeters. Conventional wisdom up to that time suggested that continental ice sheets took thousands of years to melt. But well before that report was issued, research had revealed that dynamic forces were causing these ice sheets to melt much faster. As a result, even as the AR4 was being released, some researchers were forecasting sea level increases of as much as 3 meters – nearly 5 times the worst-case AR4 estimate.

    These excessively conservative forecasts are baked into the IPCC process. In fact, some suggest that's the point of the IPCC – to take control of the scientific debate out of the hands of scientists and turn it over to governments.

    Ignoring known feedbacks: But that’s only part of the reason the IPCC reports have been out-of-date-on-date-of–issue: for the most part, they still ignore the effects of positive feedbacks on warming.

    For example, the AR 5 will not consider the potential warming from methane released from melting permafrost and volatizing clathrates. Yet we know this could add more than 2F to projected warming by 2100.

I hope people keep these points in mind when they point to IPCC reports as if they are the last word on the state of climate science.
« Last Edit: September 04, 2013, 01:03:43 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

SteveMDFP

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #421 on: September 05, 2013, 01:06:40 AM »
Well, the modeled "Tragedy of the Commons" claims that the more people have access to an area that all have equal access to, the more rapidly it will be degraded, since each person has a narrow interest in exploiting it to their maximum benefit at the fastest rate possible. But it turns out this idea of maximizing a resource shared by all is mostly what economists (and the politicians, corporations, and governments they advise) rather than how most people think or how they acted it history.

Thanks for raising this topic.  In terms of mass-scale human behavior, I do see the entire global warming crisis as one grand "tragedy of the commons."  Each individual person, town, and nation uses the atmosphere as a collective toilet for carbon waste.  It's really in no individual entity's economic interest to put limits on using this carbon toilet (our air).

It has seemed to me that the only way to regulate this carbon waste stream is to put an international treaty in place.  However, there are suggestions in your post that people could be motivated to reform their behavior by means other than government/treaty dictates.  This intrigued me, so I looked into Ostrums work and found the following summary of what circumstances permit effective local, non-government regulation of behavior:

"Design Principles for CPR Institutions[edit source]

Ostrom identified eight "design principles" of stable local common pool resource management:[19]
 -- Clearly defined boundaries (effective exclusion of external un-entitled parties);
 -- Rules regarding the appropriation and provision of common resources that are adapted to local conditions;
 -- Collective-choice arrangements that allow most resource appropriators to participate in the decision-making process;
 -- Effective monitoring by monitors who are part of or accountable to the appropriators;
 -- A scale of graduated sanctions for resource appropriators who violate community rules;
 -- Mechanisms of conflict resolution that are cheap and of easy access;
 -- Self-determination of the community recognized by higher-level authorities; and
 -- In the case of larger common-pool resources, organization in the form of multiple layers of nested enterprises, with small local CPRs at the base level.

These principles have since been slightly modified and expanded to include a number of additional variables believed to affect the success of self-organized governance systems, including effective communication, internal trust and reciprocity, and the nature of the resource system as a whole."

Looking at the nature of the CO2 waste problem, and the organization of the people and entities involved, I can't really see much room for optimism in the CO2 crisis.  Most of the "principles" don't apply to this resource and the entities over-utilizing it.

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #422 on: September 05, 2013, 06:58:39 AM »
I was trying to protect the urchins as much as I thought about maintaining an industry. Our dive industry had to fight against a myth that more or less promoted sea urchin  eradication. The myth lives on, sometimes things aren't how the common wisdom would have you believe.

I think western education (and perhaps many others) systems leave a lot to be desired. Carrying capacity and limits to growth (in a basic sense) are concepts that a child who can add and subtract ought to be able to understand. If you can understand the basic needs of a living organism and that there are limits to the production of new members of a species, the rest logically follows.

Instead - whether through the ideology of religion (the idea of man as master of the planet and free to dispose of all resources as he sees fit) or that of greed (modern consumerist capitalism) people are taught to consume without concern.

Accordingly to change the future, one must consider the ideas being brainwashed into the next generations - and replace them with more viable ones.

domen_

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #423 on: October 08, 2013, 01:40:19 AM »
In this presentation Ehrlich (I linked to his paper somewhere up) stated that he thinks we have about 10% chance of avoiding global civilization collapse. Puting it another way: he puts 90% chance we're gonna have collapse in couple of decades.



Now that's sobering, at least for me. I wasn't aware that numbers he had in mind in his paper were so bad. It's hard to imagine things are so bad, because I see some positive development as well. By that I mean renewables, which have reached cost efficiency and can entirely replace fossil fuels in a matter of decades.

Let's assume humans will manage to keep temperature under 2°C above preindustrial. I think this is still possible and given the renewables breakthrough, it is likely to happen (66% chance, to put it in IPCC terms). Do you think that under these assumptions we'll still face global civilization collapse?

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #424 on: October 08, 2013, 03:55:01 AM »
Now that's sobering, at least for me. I wasn't aware that numbers he had in mind in his paper were so bad. It's hard to imagine things are so bad, because I see some positive development as well. By that I mean renewables, which have reached cost efficiency and can entirely replace fossil fuels in a matter of decades.

I think if you pick a single factor at a time - it is hard to see collapse in a shorter timescale, as one can always posit solutions on the premise that the rest of human operations proceed as normal and compensate.

It's when you start to consider the synergistic effects of multiple problems and the positive feedback dynamics at work once collapse processes start to exceed buffering capacity that I think expectations of the rate and imminence of collapse really start to draw in.

It also ought to be considered much of this is highly speculative. My assessment of the potential for relatively rapid collapse (over perhaps several years) starting with a few years is heavily predicated upon the assumption that agriculture will be rapidly impacted following the transition of the Arctic to ice free summer conditions. There are two key assumptions present there:
1. That the Arctic will indeed transit to ice free summer conditions soon
2. That this will have significant negative agricultural impact

Either or both might turn out not to be the case - after the relatively good outcome with the ice this year, I'm certainly inclined to lean more towards "wait and see" - though a single year is too little to really state anything from.

Let's assume humans will manage to keep temperature under 2°C above preindustrial. I think this is still possible and given the renewables breakthrough, it is likely to happen (66% chance, to put it in IPCC terms). Do you think that under these assumptions we'll still face global civilization collapse?

I do not think it is possible for temperature to be kept under 2C - the latest IPCC science suggests to do so is now virtually impossible.

As far as I am aware the IPCC is still failing to take into account multiple serious carbon feedbacks inherent in the earth system, some of which are highly likely to be activated before 2C and some of which may be less likely (we have no certainty) but have the potential to add very significant amounts of additional carbon dioxide (there are several nature reservoirs with the potential to add more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere than ALL historic human emissions).

For this reason, even though I think collapse will occur faster and sooner than most people - I do not think we should expect long term stabilisation around 2C. Exactly how high it will go is however subject to the operation of the earth system feedbacks mentioned previously, about which too little is known to make confident (or any?) forecasts.

Inasmuch as collapse itself implies a massive reduction in effective carrying capacity I regard final stabilisation temperature as being of less relevance, except insofar as it may inform anyone trying to implement long term strategies as to which parts of the planet might be least unfavourable.

It ought to be noted that we are already seeing significant effects from climate change over most of the planet and we haven't even reached 1C yet - nor lost the perennial Arctic ice cover - nor any number of other major thresholds the earth system may potentially pass in the foreseeable future (years to decades).

ritter

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #425 on: October 08, 2013, 05:58:05 PM »
It's when you start to consider the synergistic effects of multiple problems and the positive feedback dynamics at work once collapse processes start to exceed buffering capacity that I think expectations of the rate and imminence of collapse really start to draw in.
Exactly this. This list of converging catastrophes is long and any one of them alone would be a significant threat to our current way of life. We are killing this planet. Our oceans are in serious trouble. We've radically altered the Arctic such that we have (or will soon) a new ocean on the planet absorbing solar energy where there used to be a nice white ice cap. We've embraced the concept of mono culture/chemical input agriculture to the point that we now have 7+ billion people to share with but little resilience. We've managed to critically threaten the continued survival of Earth's pollinators. We have over drafted our aquifers. We have entire cities/shorelines that will need to be relocated due to sea level rise. Our antibiotics are beginning to fail after years of misuse by the uninformed, right at the time infectious disease is shifting historical ranges in response to climate change. Mass extinctions will be (have been) triggered by the rise in temperature that is too fast for evolution to allow species to genetically adapt (the rate of change is unprecedented). And we must face these challenges in an energy constrained world. It's not a good combination for optimism.

No one can accurately predict when and how bad. But my gut says sooner than we'd all like and a lot worse than we care to imagine. The human cancer has metastasized.

fishmahboi

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #426 on: October 08, 2013, 11:59:01 PM »
Some context into how soon we could experience the global collapse:

The whole situation of When and How Bad is quite frightening at this stage with so many feed-backs expected to kick in at times that are difficult to specify and taking some of the posts here and the above video into context, it makes the whole subject something that is hard to stomach...

Shared Humanity

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #427 on: October 09, 2013, 06:18:43 PM »
It's hard to imagine things are so bad, because I see some positive development as well. By that I mean renewables, which have reached cost efficiency and can entirely replace fossil fuels in a matter of decades.

Every current trend and chart showing future trends demonstrate that renewable generated electricity is growing faster than other conventional forms. However, the overall growth in energy demand is far greater than the growth of renewables. Because of this, we will see dramatic growth in fossil fuel generated electricity indefinitely. Renewables simply cannot get us out of this mess.

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #428 on: October 09, 2013, 07:59:13 PM »
Quote
However, the overall growth in energy demand is far greater than the growth of renewables. Because of this, we will see dramatic growth in fossil fuel generated electricity indefinitely.
That's a good point, I haven't considered this before.

ritter

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #429 on: October 09, 2013, 08:51:03 PM »
Quote
However, the overall growth in energy demand is far greater than the growth of renewables. Because of this, we will see dramatic growth in fossil fuel generated electricity indefinitely.
That's a good point, I haven't considered this before.

It's a very important consideration. If you're new to the energy world, examine the concept of "energy returned on energy invested" on EROEI. Oil was/is essentially a gift of millions of years of condensed solar energy. It's hard to make up for that.

JimD

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #430 on: October 09, 2013, 09:43:12 PM »
Quote
However, the overall growth in energy demand is far greater than the growth of renewables. Because of this, we will see dramatic growth in fossil fuel generated electricity indefinitely.
That's a good point, I haven't considered this before.

If you wander over to the renewables thread you will find more on this point.  I posted once that we will know that we have turned the corner on renewables when new renewable capacity is used to shut down existing fossil powered plants.  To date renewables are just used to add to capacity.  This is, of course, better than adding an extra coal plant.  China for instance is big into renewables, but while it is adding new renewable capacity it is also adding significant amounts of fossil capacity.  We are likely at least 10 maybe 20 years from the turning point sad to say.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

domen_

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #431 on: October 10, 2013, 12:43:52 AM »
I have been following renewables thread but I guess I haven't recognized the significance of that statement right away. Renewables really must first develop capacity to even catch up with rising global demand, only then can they start to replace fossil fuels. And that does seem to be about 10 years away (maybe more).

Nuclear also needs a lot of time to build up (up to 10 years for a single reactor), so even renewables combined with nuclear wouldn't start reducing emissions fast enough to reach 2°C target.

Well I guess I was a bit too optimistic about 2°C, the optimistic scenario seems to be somewhere around 2.5 - 3°C above preindustrial.

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #432 on: October 10, 2013, 02:01:08 AM »
Every current trend and chart showing future trends demonstrate that renewable generated electricity is growing faster than other conventional forms. However, the overall growth in energy demand is far greater than the growth of renewables. Because of this, we will see dramatic growth in fossil fuel generated electricity indefinitely. Renewables simply cannot get us out of this mess.

Energy efficiency also has a similar problem as a solution - the more efficiently we use energy for something, the more we tend to use it - detracting from real terms energy savings.

wili

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #433 on: October 10, 2013, 05:26:42 AM »
We have to reduce energy demand, strive vigorously for rapid economic de-growth, and of course move rapidly and ideally humanely toward a much smaller total population.

Are any of those statements really still controversial around here?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #434 on: October 10, 2013, 10:56:51 AM »
Wili

Statements about the irrationality of the pursuit of compound growth and the role of population growth in the context of the Earth's finite carrying capacity still seem to be controversial in most circles.

I've just read this recent Paul Ehrlich paper from earlier this year. He takes on the economic and population growth issues directly and adds a number of other more controversial elements in the search for a solution.

It's well worth a read.

http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1754/20122845.full

wili

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #435 on: October 10, 2013, 01:17:06 PM »
Thanks for the link, Silkman. I've just been watching Paul's talk on likelihood of collapse (high) with interest.

I have to admit that it took me a while to come to the conclusion that the main task going forward for humanity is to limit our potentialities, particularly as it relates to consumption. I think most on both the left and the right these days see any view like that as anathema. But I just don't see how one gets around it when you look at the facts on the ground, so to speak. 
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Shared Humanity

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #436 on: October 11, 2013, 11:28:10 PM »
We have to reduce energy demand, strive vigorously for rapid economic de-growth, and of course move rapidly and ideally humanely toward a much smaller total population.

Are any of those statements really still controversial around here?

Not with me. We either do this or let Mother Earth do it.

Shared Humanity

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #437 on: October 15, 2013, 03:00:52 PM »
The collapse of our civilization and the environment that supports it is already happening and accelerating rapidly. I don't want to sound like some touchy feely environmental do-gooder but all of us read stories every day that portend this collapse. For most, it causes a momentary disquieting sensation and then we move on to the very necessary tasks of living our daily lives. Each of these unique and disparate stories are examples of the "canary in the coal mine". There are so many damn canaries that the flocks are beginning to block out the sun.

Here is one more............

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/15/science/earth/something-is-killing-off-the-moose.html?_r=0

wili

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #438 on: October 15, 2013, 05:41:08 PM »
Good points. I saw that moose story. I live in MN which used to be prime moose territory. But the numbers here are dropping fast. It grieves me that my daughter may never see moose in the wild in her own state. They are both magnificent and a bit goofy to behold.

As to your other point, I think one thing we are missing is a total cultural saturation of the media at all levels with messages expressing urgently, creatively, memorably, and, most of all, incessantly the enormous immediacy of the crisis we are now in the belly of. I can count on zero hands the number of top popular songs that are about the crisis (though I have to admit that I don't listen to tons of commercial radio, so I would be happy to be corrected here).

During the Vietnam war, there were many anti-war songs that got to or near the top of the charts, iirc. Yet this is a far greater threat to our and our children's existence than that ever was.

I just read a very insightful essay by Barbara Kingsolver called "Jabberwocky" that discusses the reticence of artists to do anything that seems 'political' and the even stronger pressure on artists by the industries that control the art that the public gets NOT to write or compose anything that does not conform to some rather conservative notion of main stream opinion.

So it's left to blogs, protesters and other random efforts to keep the message at least on the radar, apparently.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

domen_

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #439 on: October 15, 2013, 06:42:12 PM »
There were some songs about environment in the past (Michael Jackson - Planet Earth comes to mind), but lately there don't seem to be any. Artists seem to be occupied mostly with how to shock one another, environment is nowhere on the agenda.

David Suzuki said that environmental movement was at the peak in the late 80ies. I'd have to agree with that. Even Reagan and Thatcher acknowledged global warming is a serious problem that needs to be solved. But since the 90ies things went down, environmental movement has been in decline. This is very unfortunate because at present we need it more than ever.

Laurent

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #440 on: October 15, 2013, 08:36:47 PM »
We have a new specy coming in France right now, it is called Plathelmint or flatworm.
New zelanders know them (it comes from there) but we don't and it is a pending ecological catastrophy because there is no animal that does eat this flatworm (it is toxic) but it does eat our worms. If no predator is found to counterbalance quickly the flatworm our lands will be washed of nutrients very easily without our lovely worms.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flatworm

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #441 on: October 16, 2013, 06:56:30 PM »
Laurent

That sounds pretty bad.  We have a similar problem in US agriculture with the invasive Aisan stink bug.  We are thinking of introducing the stink bugs natural pests from Asia.  A scary solution in itself.

BTW here in the US the wonderful worms which help our agriculture so much are actually an invasive species.  North America did not have worms like that until the European settlers inadvertently introduced them in the 1600's.  One instance of the invasive species helping us out.  But I do not know if there were adverse effects to the ecology back then which are unknown today.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #442 on: October 16, 2013, 07:45:19 PM »
BTW here in the US the wonderful worms which help our agriculture so much are actually an invasive species.  North America did not have worms like that until the European settlers inadvertently introduced them in the 1600's.  One instance of the invasive species helping us out.  But I do not know if there were adverse effects to the ecology back then which are unknown today.

I think the worms do more damage than people think...

http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/invasives/terrestrialanimals/earthworms/index.html

http://www.allaboutwildlife.com/invasive-species/invasive-eartworms-in-american-soil/4545

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasive_earthworms_of_North_America

Earthworms are, actually, quite a big deal. They're just invisible enough for people not to think about them much. They're also still a work in progress.

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #443 on: October 16, 2013, 07:59:04 PM »
The first steps in response to gw are what we are doing now. In that we are running from one climate driven catastrophe to the next, from fires to floods, it's coming.

What it's gonna take to put this on the evening news? That will be something so dramatic it effects/kills millions of people. Rush Holt, a NJ politician, running for senate lost as soon as he said the words "carbon tax" he also said in conjunction with gw that "millions will die". I thought his remarks accurate or understated.

A study done in Delaware suggested that the entire country could be "green" in as little as three years, so far as electrical production goes.. went largely unnoticed.

When the WAIS slides into the Ocean, breaks up and melts it will not make the evening news because there will not be any evening news. Crucial infrastructure along the east and west coast will  be destroyed.

Thirty years ago I was made aware that the fish are our sentinels, as they go, we go.
The destruction of the largest stand alone environment on Earth..the Oceans, is tragically, well underway. From chemical sludge to acidity and an entire host of destructive factors suggest that our Oceans are rapidly dieing.

The ability of man to survive invokes questions of morality. Some upper tier folks have suggested a Earths population of one hundred million would be sustainable. Not only that, remarkably, they view themselves as part of that equation. A group naming themselves "Citizens for a prospers America" comes to mind. It's they, with funding from Exxon and a Texas billionaire who funds web sites like the "Climate Depot" hosted by Marc Rubio who is a political lobbyist not even a weather man that perpetuate the remarks like "gw is an unproven science."

It seems to me that everyone here, I'm kinda new, so I could  be wrong, realizes what's at hand, and seems very concerned, as is evidenced by this thread.

Personally, I view serious conversations about the melting Ice in the Arctic that have opened up new areas for oil drilling, that are being pursued, the legislation approving the keystone pipe line, combined with the head long dive into new sources of fossil fuels, that gw cannot and will not be address until it's far to late.

How soon...it's here now....How bad..depending on your age...like your worst nightmare.

Bligh


ritter

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #444 on: October 16, 2013, 11:17:17 PM »
that gw cannot and will not be address until it's far to late.

How soon...it's here now....How bad..depending on your age...like your worst nightmare.

I absolutely agree. Preach on, brother.

Theta

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #445 on: October 25, 2013, 08:00:31 AM »
Recent Methane levels in October in the context of the film Last Hours could be another reason as to why catastrophic Climate Change is now and quite bad.

Arctic News articles regarding the Methane situation: http://arctic-news.blogspot.ie/

Methane levels on October 24th:

Here is a ten day Methane chart which shows what appears to be the whole earth blanketed by Methane.

  :o
« Last Edit: October 25, 2013, 09:53:04 AM by Theta »
Can't think of a signature

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #446 on: October 25, 2013, 04:37:13 PM »
Here is a ten day Methane chart which shows what appears to be the whole earth blanketed by Methane.

Not sure it's really showing anything of great concern? 1950ppb+ is arguably slightly higher than average - but still doesn't seem unreasonable near places where it's emitted as you can't expect a uniform atmospheric concentration (particularly given the short half life). Bear in mind the atmosphere usually contains some methane (and human activity is holding the level higher significantly already).

If there is an abrupt release of methane at levels sufficient to be catastrophic to human civilisation - I'm quite sure you'll be seeing something an awful lot more dramatic - and still get a little warning before the effects really start to bite.

Laurent

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #447 on: January 14, 2014, 05:00:48 PM »
Quote
What many moms don't know is that most mercury in fish comes from coal fired power plants. Because coal contains trace levels of naturally occurring mercury, when it's burned that mercury goes up the smokestack and into the atmosphere. Power plants can install scrubber technology to prevent this, but many still spew massive amounts of the pollutant into the air.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/molly-rauch/climate-change-worsens-me_b_4576641.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green

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deep octopus

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Re: When and how bad?
« Reply #449 on: January 14, 2014, 10:26:36 PM »
If the forecasts for El Niño are as bad as they look... this year and the next could be pretty vicious with respect to what humans are used to.


It will have been five years since the last El Niño. I expect there to be a substantial breakout from the so-called "pause" (more or less just making plainly obvious a new peak in temperatures.)

The "irreversible" retreat of the Pine Island Glacier is also getting high publicity today. The positive feedbacks are lining their ducks in a row.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25729750