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rboyd

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #50 on: April 30, 2017, 07:24:41 PM »
Exports are rescuing coal power, which is increasingly not needed to cover domestic demand

Are these exports helping to fund the baseload capacity required to balance the renewables in the short-term; can the coal plant be run at a relatively stable loading with exports offsetting doemstic demand cuts when renewables ramp up?

https://energytransition.org/2017/01/renewable-energy-production-stagnates-in-germany-in-2016/



Much bigger focus required outside the electricity sector, on transport (oil) and heating (gas):






rboyd

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #51 on: April 30, 2017, 07:38:41 PM »
Renewable energy made up just over 41% of Germany’s power supply last month, the most ever at around 19.5 TWh

https://energytransition.org/2017/04/march-was-a-record-month-for-renewable-power-in-germany/


Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #52 on: April 30, 2017, 11:50:25 PM »
Quote
Got this chart from official website of German government. Can't discover that kind of decline your chart shows. (BP 2016=Oil concern provided?!  :o) To be more precisely-we are not burning "more dirty coal than ever", but much more dirty coal than neccessary. In my opinion it is the religious believe that free, unregulated markets will heal all on their own....

Which of the charts I posted are you referencing? 

Please translate the column heading on your chart.  I don't see anything about the amount of coal being burned, only info about emissions.  But I don't read German.

Germany is burning a lot more coal than necessary.  Lots to supply the export market.

BP reports both tonnes and "oil equivalents" for fossil fuels.  Using oil equivalents allows comparision from one fuel to another.

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #53 on: May 01, 2017, 12:06:18 AM »
Quote
Here my pdf-calculations regarding driving an EV. It's in german, could translate -but maybe it is obviously also in german.

If you use German retail electricity prices when calculating EV charging costs they are going to come out high.  But the underlying cost of German retail electricity for larger volume consumers is roughly the cost of electricity in France.



It's all about taxes.  Germany piles the taxes onto their cost of electricity.



I'm not sure that makes any sense at all if the goal is to lower CO2 emissions.  Roll the subsidies back onto general tax dollars and quit adding VAT (sales) tax to retail electricity.  Germany has a disincentive program for getting off fossil fuels in place.

Same with heat pumps.  Either drop the high taxes on retail electricity or create special rates for EV charging and home heating.  In California the average price for retail electricity is 18.6 cents but if you're charging an EV you pay only 9 cents.  Easy enough to have lower qualifying rates for houses that have EVs and/or heat pumps.

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #54 on: May 01, 2017, 12:09:11 AM »
Quote
Are these exports helping to fund the baseload capacity required to balance the renewables in the short-term; can the coal plant be run at a relatively stable loading with exports offsetting doemstic demand cuts when renewables ramp up?

No.  From what I've heard exports are not rising when the wind is blowing harder or the Sun shining. 

Don't have any data.  Data rules.

My take is that fossil and nuclear plants in Germany are selling whenever they can in order to postpone bankruptcy.

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #55 on: May 01, 2017, 12:14:31 AM »
Quote
Much bigger focus required outside the electricity sector, on transport (oil) and heating (gas):

Remember, a very large portion of primary energy used for transportation (and electricity generation) will not need to be replaced.  Over 50% of all fossil fuel energy is lost as waste heat.

Take a look at how much primary energy was wasted in the US in 2014.  Almost 60%.




Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #56 on: May 01, 2017, 01:07:38 AM »
Here's the 2016 version...





There will be some wasted energy when we use renewables.  EVs may be the most wasteful.  About 10% of the incoming energy will be lost as heat while charging batteries and an additional 10% lost due to friction loss between motor and road.  (Moving to inhub wheels might lower that some.)

nicibiene

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #57 on: May 01, 2017, 11:36:54 AM »
I'm not sure that makes any sense at all if the goal is to lower CO2 emissions.  Roll the subsidies back onto general tax dollars and quit adding VAT (sales) tax to retail electricity.  Germany has a disincentive program for getting off fossil fuels in place.

In my heat pump compairision was VAT even excluded. The financial ministry even earns much more VAT on the higher taxes of renewables!  :o (what the hell is the sense in there?!)

Quote
Much bigger focus required outside the electricity sector, on transport (oil) and heating (gas):

Indeed that is the problem! The price system in place is a disincentive system for private costumers that are not common with the urgent problem of climate change. The private sector currently has to carry ALL the costs of renewables. All high energy industry (and the rules for that got lower and lower) has not to pay anything.

If you want to get a movement into transport and heat you either need a well informed public that is willing to install the new techniques, drive an EV or you need a price system that could make a guiding job.

At the moment, if you turn your energy consumption to renewables, or even install own PV, you are the biggest looser ever. Blamed a) having too much money to "waste" b) causing high energy prices. Beside that the system serves the well established german envy factor.  :D

The transistion of all -energy, transport, heat- is a transistion to electricity. Why not dividing the costs through the wider basis of fossil fuels? The costs could be also lower if there were no import duties on chinese solar panels, protecting the European factories (and prices)....

The low market price of energy, and so the costs causing gap to guaranteed price for renewables is caused by overproduction of coal powered energy... but the mechanism of the price system is well hidden, and the media does NOTHING to explain it. It is told: higher amount of renewables is causing higher EEG-Umlage, grids have to be built out due to renewables = higher costs for your electricity - no alternative.

All that mess is no coincidence, but the work of thousands of fossil lobbyists and industry close politicians, that are not willing to change a failing system obviously giving no answers for the future.

By the way: my posted chart refered to the last chart before tCO2/TW it was about the development of gCO2/kWh.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2017, 12:02:30 PM by nicibiene »
“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” –“Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.” Albert Einstein

nicibiene

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #58 on: May 01, 2017, 04:11:46 PM »
Additionally I highly recommend the website of Fraunhofer institute-here you can find everything about Germanys power production, prices, export... -a kind of magic that site, even in full english available. :)

There I found about the increase of the export first after I did some resarch powered by my curiotisy. - but I actually find that there are no more that nice interactive cake diagrams for export/import since 2015 - I could swear there were the 2016/2017 too recently! I also can not find any monthly datas about export since Feb. 2017-  :-X maybe another try to hide some unconvinient datas-preparing the upcoming election?

https://www.energy-charts.de/power.htm

Another aspect is a total stagnation of installation of new PV since 2013/2014 due to drastic cuts in the guaranteed prices.



graphic shows the guaranteed payment decreased more than the system prices and so it got all pretty unattractive for bigger players or investors.

As I´m planning my own PV I had to realize that the guaranteed price is very, very close to my costs-no bonus profit for capital investment risk to get anymore-as it was in the beginning of EEG (about 20% profit I think). The entire thing is only "profitable" for people that could consume the electricity directly when it is produced. Otherwise it is a nearly null game or a thing of idealism-with the investion risk you have to carry. The investion pays off after 10 years.

Beside there are nearly no banks that offer KFW-credits for PV for privates. As bank houses earn generally nothing due to the low level of interests they are not willing to do the unprofitable business with low-interest KfWloans.

Another thing is the absolutely complicated -and expensive- tax administration of every single little PV power plant. You even have to pay VAT on the energy you use directly - calculated on the basis of the price you would have to pay if you buy it expensive at a supplier. Of course you have the choice to do the small buisness without VAT, but then it makes the thing even more expensive, because you loose the chance to get the VAT from your installation invoice...

All in one all is done to make the thing absulutely unattractive for people, to let the people feel angry about the renewable idea as a whole - and the communication about climate change is nearly not taking place in the public, newspapers or TV.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2017, 05:30:28 PM by nicibiene »
“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” –“Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.” Albert Einstein

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #59 on: July 25, 2017, 05:26:49 AM »
The future of Germany’s Energiewende

"A key decision for voters in the coming election will be who guides the country’s Energiewende. Germany’s much-feted transition to a low carbon economy is going to face challenging circumstances in the next legislative period (2017 – 2021).

First, 2020 will be a year of reckoning for the incoming coalition. Germany is likely to meet its renewable targets but fall short on goals to cut energy consumption and increase energy productivity under its EU obligation. Most damaging for the Energiewende’s international credibility, the government will miss its national 2020 climate target by a wide margin. Instead of cutting emissions by 40%, the latest estimates see the country hitting only 32%."



"With near-term targets likely to be missed, the challenge ahead is to meet the country’s mid-term targets. These include cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 55% from 1990 levels and increasing the share of renewables in the power supply to at least 50% by 2030."



https://energytransition.org/2017/07/the-future-of-germanys-energiewende/






Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #60 on: July 25, 2017, 07:45:31 AM »
Thought I'd take a look at how Germany is doing with CO2 emissions relative to 1990.



Very unlikely Germany will meet their 2020 goal. They weren't really on track prior to the Fukushima disaster and their decision to close reactors earlier than planned stalled them out for a couple of years.  (Eyeballed lower red arrow line.)

Resetting the hypothetical line higher doesn't help.

However, what is not shown is the impact of Germany (perhaps) putting a lot of EVs/PHEVs on their roads between 2020 and 2030.

I don't know what will happen in Germany politically.  Will coal fight a tough retreat or will the rapid falling price of wind (especially offshore) and solar take over and drop emissions faster than the 1990 to 2010 rate?  Will the German green movement be reinvigorated?

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #61 on: August 24, 2017, 07:14:30 PM »
Wind power hit record low price in German auctions. Few are happy.

The structure of the auctions gave precedence to "citizen" projects, quite a few of which seem to be fronts for big companies. These projects don't have to have an environmental impact assessment in place, and have 54 months (rather than 30) to complete the project. Overall impact will be to delay the implementation of the next bunch of wind projects, slowing down the growth of wind capacity within Germany.

"There has been the great criticism of the auction’s definition of “citizen projects.” The government has already stated that this category will be done away with for future auctions; there was simply not enough time to get rid of it in the second round based on the results from the first round (report in German), in which a company called Enertrag organized citizen groups in order to become eligible for preferential treatment.

“Citizen projects” have 54 months to be built instead of 30 months – though that shorter timeframe is already quite generous. In addition, citizen wind projects do not have to already have an environmental impact assessment, which under German law is essentially also a construction permit, to take part in the auctions."

"As in the first round, it is not certain that all of these winning projects will actually pass the environmental impact assessment, which they nonetheless need in order to start building. The result could be a very low volume of new builds starting in 2019 because “citizen projects” from 2017 have until 2021/2022 to be completed. This downturn may not yet be felt fully in 2018 because of the current backlog of projects under construction."

https://energytransition.org/2017/08/wind-power-hit-record-low-price-in-german-auctions-few-are-happy/




rboyd

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #62 on: April 29, 2019, 02:47:51 AM »
Betrayed: Germany’s government quashes EU carbon neutrality

Quote
Recently a leaked EU-planning document reported by EURACTIV (and confirmed by CLEW) revealed that at a two-day Brussels summit, a group of nations led by Germany and including Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic “have refused to specifically link EU climate action with the 1.5°C objective. They also oppose any time-bound commitment to the EU’s climate neutrality objective, deleting any reference to 2050 for reaching that goal.”

Quote
But all these signs seem lost upon much of Germany’s government, which instead is more intent than ever to slow down the energy transition. Repeated failures such as the Diesel-Gate Scandal, the nation missing its 2020 pledged emissions targets, the continued expansion of lignite mining (despite the recommendations of so-called Coal Commission) have incensed the public. Yet Germany’s Grand Coalition between the SPD and CDU keeps choosing fossil fuel dependency while denying physics, ignoring public sentiment and ensuring the heatwave isn’t going to break anytime soon. As this story goes to press, the Grand Coalition is now paving the way for fracked LNG imports from the US and an overall gas-powered economy.

Quote
Despite announcing a renewed focus on the environment in response to the growing Fridays for the Future demonstrations, sadly “Germany’s response to unprecedented protests by young people all over the world is essentially to put the brakes on European climate action,” said Sebastian Mang, EU climate policy adviser at Greenpeace. As the governing parties continue to circumvent the science and ignore the public, no wonder the Greens have become the nation’s third most popular party, gaining nearly as many new members last year as the CDU lost.

https://energytransition.org/2019/04/betrayed-germanys-government-quashes-eu-carbon-neutrality/

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #63 on: April 29, 2019, 02:52:41 AM »
Sacrifice towns: dispatches from Germany’s Energiewende frontlines

Quote
Each day, the mammoth bucketwheel excavators on the horizon creep closer. Ahead of them comes a swarm of smaller chopping, digging, pumping and bulldozing machines, ripping through the landscape, removing trees, unearthing graves, flattening houses, destroying ancient churches, eviscerating communities—all to get at the coal buried deep beneath. For the thousands of people whose families have lived in these towns for generations, the pathway through Germany’s “Coal Exit” runs literally straight through their kitchens.

Since the end of World War II, dozens of centuries-old villages have fallen victim to expanding open-pit cast mining in Germany’s coal heartland. Without a change in energy planning, over the next decade even more will be first abandoned, then razed to the ground, and finally obliterated by the advancing excavators. Given how much of Germany was lost due to wars and fascism, how ironic that corporations like RWE Energy can now rain further destruction upon the countryside and wipe out villages that survived last century’s insanity.

https://energytransition.org/2019/04/dispatches-from-germanys-energiewende/

NeilT

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #64 on: April 29, 2019, 12:53:28 PM »
The Greens DEMANDED and end to Nuclear power in Germany.

Now they have it.

Strange that they are so unhappy....

Once, half a decade ago, I took the government guidance figures on Wind farm average energy production and calculated the baseload power of the UK by the average output of the wind turbines (at the time), against the square km of the UK.  It turned out to be one turbine every quarter of a km for the entire land surface of the UK.  Of course this assumes that the wind is blowing; which we know doesn't happen for at least a week at certain points in the UK.

Aspiration may be the mistress.  But Reality is the Master.  Greens, in Germany today, are reaping the bitter harvest of understanding that the Master, or reality, trumps the Mistress of aspirations every day of the week.

The plan of the Cameron government was thirds.  One third Nuclear, one third CCGT and one third renewable to top up the other two thirds when it was available.  It was a good strategy, one which is allowing the UK to phase Coal out entirely from the generating landscape.  A strategy which is going to be crippled by Green politics.

Sometimes I do wonder if the Greens actually understand that CO2 driven AGW is the true challenge for the next 10 generations?  Rather than the NIMBY attitude on Nuclear and burning ever increasing amounts of coal to feed their HUGE power requirements for their businesses?
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #65 on: April 29, 2019, 01:48:02 PM »
Neil, i think you are making some wrong assumptions here.

First of all, you need to recalculate. It's now a half a decade later. A lot has been done to make windmills way more efficient in recent years.

Quote
Alstom's ECO 100 wind uses a 122-meter rotor, which is a nearly 40 percent increase from the 100-meter rotor used on the same turbine less than five years ago.
Link >> https://www.power-eng.com/articles/print/volume-118/issue-3/features/advancements-in-wind-turbine-technology-improving-efficiency-and-reducing-cost.html

Second, the conservative CDU (Merkel did that single-handed to be precise) was responsible for phase-out of nuclear, not the greens.

I agree the greens in Germany don't have a convincing climate action plan though. And this is actually a tragedy.

NeilT

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #66 on: April 29, 2019, 03:31:18 PM »
Neil, i think you are making some wrong assumptions here.

First of all, you need to recalculate. It's now a half a decade later. A lot has been done to make windmills way more efficient in recent years.

Quote
Alstom's ECO 100 wind uses a 122-meter rotor, which is a nearly 40 percent increase from the 100-meter rotor used on the same turbine less than five years ago.
Link >> https://www.power-eng.com/articles/print/volume-118/issue-3/features/advancements-in-wind-turbine-technology-improving-efficiency-and-reducing-cost.html

Second, the conservative CDU (Merkel did that single-handed to be precise) was responsible for phase-out of nuclear, not the greens.

I agree the greens in Germany don't have a convincing climate action plan though. And this is actually a tragedy.

Even with a 100% upgrade in turbines and a 100% upgrade in efficiency (to 60%), there are still several major problems.

Space: Simply there is not enough space on land even at this level of efficiency
Cost:  Offshore wind is crippling the longer the field has to be maintained compared to more conventional power.
Surface roughening:  The power returned is a diminishing value where the more you roughen the surface with extensive wind farms, the less power you get from the wind overall.  It is a finite resource which we will reach the limits of eventually
Becalming:  Simply put there are days, leading into a week or more, where there is no wind.  Making wind an additional power source, not baseload.

As for Merkel?  Tell me she was not influenced by the Greens?  I remember the shock horror after Fukushima and the blind determination of the Greens to do away with Nuclear "at any cost".

Today, in Germany, Coal is the "any cost" factor.  I hate it because fanaticism is fanaticism no matter whether it is applied to a good thing or a bad thing.  For instance, in the UK, we emit 100m tonnes of CO2 more than the CO2 cost of producing new glass.  Simply by how we recycle it.  Fanaticism says we must recycle.  The "at any cost" is 100m tonnes of CO2.


Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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b_lumenkraft

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #67 on: April 29, 2019, 04:22:10 PM »
Space: Simply there is not enough space on land even at this level of efficiency
... Surface roughening...
... Becalming...

I want to see this calculations you made on these claims, please.

As for Merkel, i don't know how you can make the claim the policies are influenced by the greens. She self said she made the decision based on the Fukushima incident.

BTW Germany is also phasing out of coal if you didn't get that memo, so i don't know what you mean with fanaticism in this context but you are very close to discrediting yourself.

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #68 on: April 29, 2019, 05:37:56 PM »
Even with a 100% upgrade in turbines and a 100% upgrade in efficiency (to 60%), there are still several major problems.

Space: Simply there is not enough space on land even at this level of efficiency
According to one source I found offhand, a wind turbine requires about 0.75 acres / MW.
Actual wind farms take up much more than that, at 4MW / km2, including all the agricultural land in between. Even with these assumptions, And even assuming you need 180 GW capacity, to generate the whole peak electricity usage of the UK of ~53 GB, at efficiency of only 30%, gets you to 45,000 km2, less than 20% of the UK's land area.
Now count the agricultural land included in this, reduce due to increased efficiency, reduce due to huge offshore turbines, reduce due to solar and hydro, reduce due to batteries flattening peak load, and you get a much smaller number. And you even gain the area covered by coal and CCNG plants, including the area required for transportation of the fossil fuels. IMHO, certainly doable from land area point of view.

Neven

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #69 on: April 29, 2019, 05:42:23 PM »
Quote
I hate it because fanaticism is fanaticism no matter whether it is applied to a good thing or a bad thing.

You mean like demanding 'options' so you can transport your toys to your second home abroad, without having to feel guilty towards your grandchildren? One has to be pretty fanatical to believe in such a reality.

Energy supply isn't the problem, as much as growing energy demand is. And that's because too many people aren't serious about AGW. 'Soft denial' I saw someone affiliated with Extinction Rebellion call it on a BBC panel discussion I watched the other day.
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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #70 on: April 29, 2019, 09:23:03 PM »
Space: Simply there is not enough space on land even at this level of efficiency

 :o The wind farms that are being built across Indiana are surrounded by some of the most productive farmland on the planet.

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #71 on: April 29, 2019, 10:15:41 PM »
Some wind energy papers:

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/106/27/10933.full.pdf

"The analysis in this article suggests that a network of land-based 2.5-MW turbines operating at as little as 20% of rated capacity, confined to nonforested, ice-free regions would be more than sufficient to account for total current and anticipated future global demand for electricity. The potential for the contiguous U.S. could amount to ~16 times current consumption."


Influence of  turbine drag:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2007JAS2509.1

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2007JAS2509.1

" Suppose that use of wind power were to grow 100-fold to 2 TW ... the resulting peak changes in seasonal mean temperature might be ~ 0.5 K ... These climatic changesare detectable above background climatic variability in model runs of a few decades in duration, but they might remain too small to detect in the presence of other anthropogenic change and natural climate variability."

sidd

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #72 on: April 29, 2019, 11:17:42 PM »
But, but, but the stupid, fanatic Greens that cause all the troubles!  ::)
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rboyd

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #73 on: April 29, 2019, 11:43:10 PM »
I am all for much more fanatical greens, we need them!

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #74 on: September 21, 2019, 01:51:13 AM »
Is Germany too stingy to fund the fight against climate change?
https://www.dw.com/en/is-germany-too-stingy-to-fund-the-fight-against-climate-change/a-50452781
Quote
As finance minister, Scholz has set out the 2020 federal budget without earmarking any new debts. Can this be maintained?

Scholz said additional revenue from cost increases tied to CO2 emissions would create "more room to maneuver than one might think."

But he has been crunching the numbers with his coalition partners in mind. The CSU/CDU are unwilling to sacrifice the "black zero" of a balanced budget under any circumstances — not even to protect the climate.

That is why the debate within the CDU has become such a heated one: The party leadership maintains that if extra environmental costs are necessary, they must be absorbed by making cutbacks elsewhere.

Read more: German 'meat tax' on the table to protect the climate

For the SPD, slashing public spending to earmark funds for the environment is not an option.
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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #75 on: September 21, 2019, 08:12:56 AM »
Just contemplate for a minute. Money is cheap at the moment. It was never cheaper, you can borrow as a nation-state without paying any interest at all. If you are Germany, they even give you money to take their money in some cases.

And Germanies holy goal is not borrowing money ATM.

No, Donald Trump is not the only complete moron in office...
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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #76 on: September 21, 2019, 09:27:38 AM »
Germany don't borrows money, but Germany prints large amounts of money. The biggest part of all the money the ECB printed was to buy german debt. A bankrupted place full with illegals, that's what germany is.

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #77 on: September 21, 2019, 11:44:41 AM »
Germany don't borrows money, but Germany prints large amounts of money. The biggest part of all the money the ECB printed was to buy german debt. A bankrupted place full with illegals, that's what germany is.

LOL, that's so far away from the reality i don't even know where to start.

Alexander, how do you know things about Germany? Do you speak German? Is there a German blog or news source you are following? Is there anything that connects you to Germany other than the American Nazi blogs you are reading?
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Alexander555

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #78 on: September 21, 2019, 12:19:59 PM »
The average Italian or Spaniard has more savings than the average German. You are to poor to pay for the costs of your illegals. That's why the ECB has to print everything. And from the savings you have in Germany a big part is parked with a small part of the population. Destroyed by globalists and left wingers. You had to compete with China, and now you have become like China. The China from 20 years ago.

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #79 on: September 21, 2019, 12:41:52 PM »
Well, i don't know why savings rate is a measurement for you, but when it is, the US is surely a real shithole country in your view. Why do you hate America so much?

https://data.oecd.org/natincome/saving-rate.htm

BTW, according to Eurostat the savings rate in the EU is ~ 12%, Germany ~11%, Spain minus ~5%, Italy ~8%.

You know nothing Jon Snow.
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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #80 on: September 21, 2019, 01:04:00 PM »
Without printing money, there would be no savings in Europe. And for germany they printed the most.

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #81 on: September 21, 2019, 01:22:54 PM »
You obviously don't know that Germany isn't printing any money anymore (which is sad!). It's the ECB doing that. We have the Euro as a currency now.

Alexander, you need to stop reading Breitbart&Co. They are brainwashing you.
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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #82 on: September 21, 2019, 01:44:46 PM »
Germany has (or at least used to have) in its blood and bone the memory of the hyperinflation of the 1920s, that lead to the rise of Hitler & then.......

After WWII the national effort in W. Germany to rebuild the economy and make enough money to repay Marshall Aid was quite extraordinary.

Until the Euro, German economic and financial policy had just one over-riding objective - maintaining the value of the D-Mark - avoiding inflation. They still resist any move that weakens the Euro, and most Germans wish they still had the D-Mark (Deutschmark), and do not like QE (Quantitative Easing).

That is why they will not spend more than they earn. Germany's  Government runs a budget surplus, they have a trade surplus. So there is an emotional resistance to the Government borrowing required to accelerate green energy.

And remember, Chancellor Merkel is from East Germany, which had a very rough time before, during and after unification. After that, indulgence in possibly reckless financial behaviour is just not on.

Mind you, I hope that Germany does embrace the financial and economic logic of getting on with moving to zero-carbon at a faster rate.
____________________________________________

ps: It would be nice if Alexander555 could keep his obviously racist agenda to himself.
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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #83 on: September 21, 2019, 01:58:19 PM »
Money printing is eroding the savings long term which is more a problem for the austere north.

Dutch and German policies are similar but we are now going to lend more money. Basically you can grow depth as GDP grows and both nations have not done that for a while so we have a margin (according to some economy professor).

Also if we invest in a sensible way in what is necessary to reach climate goals some of that money will flow back.

We need more people working on changing the electric grid (Germany needs north south connections and the Netherlands needs better connections to historical low use regions so we can put big solar parks there) so that is lots of jobs in that area. Maybe some people losing jobs in ICE manufacturing can be retrained for that.

Borrowing money at the current rates is not bad if we invest it in the right measures.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #84 on: September 21, 2019, 02:30:57 PM »
Germany has (or at least used to have) in its blood and bone the memory of the hyperinflation of the 1920s, that lead to the rise of Hitler & then.......

Well, that's what we tell the world as an excuse. Actually, this story doesn't make sense though. Germanies hyperinflation took place from 1921 to 1923. Hitler became Kanzler in 1933, ten years later.

The reason he got Kanzler is that the racist people elected him. It's that simple.
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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #85 on: September 21, 2019, 02:32:34 PM »
You obviously don't know that Germany isn't printing any money anymore (which is sad!)

I mean, it's sad that Alexander doesn't know that. it's not sad that we have the Euro IMHO.
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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #86 on: September 21, 2019, 04:00:25 PM »
The ECB's headquarter is in Frankfurt. And they printed already 4000 billion. And they just announced more money printing. Over here we have billion euro bills falling from the sky, year after year. We saved 10 billion 4 years ago. And now we have to save 12 billion again. And these bills come from family reuniting, money you get for your children, social housing.....So we have a constant deficit. Every year the government needs a couple more billions, billions for who nobody is paying at that moment. That's something they have to figure out the years after. And the bills keep comming in year after year. They just fall from the sky. We have a better social security as Germany or the UK. But we will have to bring it down. Because to many of these illegals in Germany, move to Belgium. Because here they get more. And saving 12 billion, in Germany that would be something like 100 billion.

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #87 on: September 21, 2019, 06:29:09 PM »
The Nazi government of the 1930's turned around the German economy spectacularly using money printing that was spent on real economic goods (and armaments). When there is slack in the economy, and new money is spent on productive assets, it does not create inflation. Excellent piece on this:

https://medium.com/@vathsan32/nazi-germanys-economic-recovery-the-brilliance-of-hjalmar-schacht-64e53f3a721f

In the post-WW2 period the "ordoliberals" (actually a precursor of the neoliberals, as ordoliberals see the state's duty to create and maintain "free" markets) took over. Once the post-war economic miracle had waned after the 1970's, policy was directed toward wage-rise suppression - which increases profits, suppresses consumption and creates a large trade surplus.

https://www.cairn-int.info/article-E_LECO_060_0048--a-german-approach-to-liberalism.htm

This was the real reason for the Euro-crisis - Germany would not increase consumption to aid Greece, Spain etc. Instead the ECB bailed out Deutsche Bank etc. by buying all their bad loans (tranferring losses from private financiers to the public) and imposed a restructuring austerity that facilitated lots of profit making opportunities (e.g. buying state assets on the cheap) for the financiers. The Euro actually greatly benefitted German exporters, as it was at a lower exchange rate level than a pure Deutschmark would have been, due to it representing a balance of nations with less strong economies and trade surpluses.

All of the money printing has gone toward bailing out the financiers through the purchase of bad assets (just like the Fed did with the US banks) and supporting the price of the sovereign debt which those banks hold massive amounts of. If some of that printed money had been given to the average person, and the financiers made to take their losses while protecting depositors, Europe would be in a much better place.

This is why a "Green New Deal" funded by money printing would not be inflationary, as it would create real assets and fund the closure of fossil fuel assets (without which a financial crash would be created).


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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #88 on: September 21, 2019, 07:21:39 PM »
The data on Belgium says that Germany, except as a trading partner, has nothing to do with the Public Finances of Belgium.

As for the EU, they played a major part in helping to get Belgium's public debt down from the stratosphere from the mid-1990's to the mid-2000's..

And illegals - no visible impact on the Public Finances of Belgium at all.


The posts from Alexander555 on this subject have no basis in fact whatsoever.
______________________________________________________________
- Govt Debt as a % of GDP rose from about 75% in 1980 to 133% in 1995, as a consequence of and an inadequate Government response to the 1979 oil shock, i.e.shelling out money without commensurate gains in GDP growth. Having Governments with a life span of only just over a year did not help. Belgium along with Italy were regarded as the bad boys of Europe at the time.

- This debt went down to about 85% of GDP by 2008, largely as a response to EU / ECB policies required as conditionalities of joining the Euro.

- But in 2009 we had the financial crash, mainly caused by reckless lending by the private sector, led by the USA and to some extent the UK.  Governments spent oodles to avoid civil society disturbances, so Belgium Govt debt rose to about 105% of GDP by 2014.

Since then, increase in debt has been mostly below increase in GDP, lowering the debt to 102% in 2018, 101% estimated for 2019.

- The medium term forecasts make extremely dull reading.

Nothing to do with illegals,
Nothing to do with Germany, except if Germany's economy hits the rocks, all Europe's economies will feel the pain.
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rboyd

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #89 on: September 21, 2019, 07:32:01 PM »
Germany announces host of new measures to bring down CO2

Quote
Niklas Höhne, founding partner of NewClimate Institute and a professor at Wageningen University, said the package “lack[ed] courage”.

“The new imperative is to aim for zero greenhouse gas emissions. But the package only collects individual measures to meet the short term target, without a clear vision how to phase out fossil fuels completely,” said Höhne.

Returning from climate protests in Berlin, which organisers said were attended by up to 250,000 people, Alexander Reitzenstein, an analyst with the think tank E3G, said the measures were a “disappointment… and piece-meal”.

“The proposed measures mark a clear progress,” Reitzenstein said. “It is however quite unlikely that they will be enough to reach the domestic and European climate targets, notwithstanding the need for more ambitious targets to contribute to limiting global warming to 1.5C.”

The scheme to spare drivers from the effects of increased carbon prices was “quite controversial because many argue it incentives to use the car and increases traffic …. and basically offsets the effect of carbon pricing.”

He added that the entry-level emissions rights in 2021 were set at an “extremely low price”. “It goes up quite early but it’s really low.”

Ottmar Edenhofer, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), agreed. “The grand coalition has not delivered on this central issue,” Edenhofer said in a statement.

Quote
“The price path [for the emissions trading scheme] is too low and does not extend far enough into the future to have a steering effect. By contrast, a sensible entry price is €50 per tonne of CO2 and rises to €130 by the end of the next decade, i.e. 2030. The carbon price should be the core instrument of climate policy, but now it only has an alibi function.”

Germany’s Fridays 4 Future group, which represents the student climate strike movement, dismissed the programme as “not my climate package”.

“It’s a bad joke when the federal government praises the pressure from #FridaysForFuture at the beginning of every statement and then wants to sell us decisions that further trample our future,” the campaign group tweeted.

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/09/20/germany-announces-host-new-measures-bring-co2/

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #90 on: September 21, 2019, 07:36:40 PM »
Sound and fury: Merkel’s Climate Cabinet and its shortcomings

Germany is no longer a climate policy leader, dragging its feet in the face of increasing resistance from status-quo forces.

Quote
Despite increasing public pressure, both coalition parties within Merkel’s so-called Climate Cabinet favor taxes or market based trading schemes to tackle the climate crisis instead of new regulations to increase renewable energy or hard measures to phase out fossil fuels. L. Michael Buchsbaum takes a look

Quote
While the proposals now being considered include many incentives, he lamented the lack of legal requirements and actual regulations being proposed—something Merkel and her party have taken a strong stance against. Echoing the famous warning by another former German scientist, Albert Einstein that “we cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them,” Toepfer said that the state must make clear “that we can not solve the problems that the market economy has brought us through climate change with the market economy alone.”

Behind the ever growing sound and fury in Berlin is the fact that Germany is way behind on its climate efforts. Following the hottest summer in recorded history, ever more greenhouse gases continue to billow into the atmosphere from the nation’s filthy brown coal-fired power plants and tailpipes of its ever growing fleet of SUVs.

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In elections throughout the year, the public has clearly showed its disapproval as the governing parties were punished and support for the more climate-focused Greens surged. Indeed, opinion polls now show that climate change has surpassed immigration as the German public’s primary concern. Nevertheless, the government has abandoned a self-imposed target to lower CO2 emissions by 40% from 1990 levels by next year as Germany risks missing its legally binding EU goals. Governing coalition partner SPD, which has been particularly hammered in recent elections, is additionally threatening to quit the coalition altogether and bring down the government with it if a climate package they approve isn’t passed.

Quote
Most assume that whatever plans are adopted will derail Merkel’s prized Black-zero balanced-budget if the government ended up footing the bill, which news outlets like the Sueddeutsche Zeitung report could stretch to as much as 50-75 billion euros.

Quote
Details around how exactly the new plans will boost the build out of renewable energy—which has cratered recently, are hard to find. Reviewing the debate from the sidelines, Green Party head Robert Habeck warned that none of these proposals are sufficient, “neither in speed nor in liability,” he said. “The most urgent action would be the coal exit. There has been a national consensus on this, now it’s time to implement it.” Instead, he says, the SPD may actually be fighting to open new mines and stall the phase-out of lignite. And neither party seems to be directly pushing for the expansion of renewable energy. Though plans to promote electric vehicles and replace old oil-heaters in buildings are all well and good, these measures are “not enough to prevent the environmental harms” that go on every day—and against which the public is largely rebelling. Despite the noise, as we come down to the finish line, fears are mounting that the Climate Cabinet’s proposals will actually signify nothing.

https://energytransition.org/2019/09/sound-and-fury-merkels-climate-cabinet-and-its-shortcomings/

Alexander555

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #91 on: September 21, 2019, 09:43:32 PM »
Gerontocrat, i have no doubts that you are a wise man. But now you are talking about a subject that is not your strongest subject to talk about. Because these illegals/refugees....have a very strong impact on our debt. Because our nominal debt keeps going up fast, even after hard savings. You have to know that we have 40 000 cases of family reunion a year, every year.  And on average they have between 3 and 4 children with them, almost 4. Each child gets 165 € a month, and low income families get 83 € extra for every child a month. And between 50 and 150 € extra for each child per month if the go to school. That's like 18000 € a year for one family , only for the children. That's like 600 million € a year. And that they have to find every year again. Ofcourse , everybody has the same rights. But most Belgians only have 1 or 2 children, and many have no children. And when they had to save 10 billion 4 years ago. They saved money from traditional government services, the police force, the fire fighters, the teachers.....They rised all kinds of taxes. And the result is that we now spend 20 billion a year more than 4 years ago. Because all the money they saved goes straight to these refugees and illegals. And much more than what we saved. It's a cost that comes out of nowhere. And it just keeps going up year after year. And now again they will have to save 12 billion. There are only 4 options, growth to get a bigger tax basis, higher taxes, more debt, or savings. But the growth is not so easy, not even after printing 4000 billion. And we already have the highest tax in the world on most things. And more debt, if you take public and private debt together. Than we are already the masters of the univers. Than the savings are left, but i don't think there are many people left that want to save. And the bills will keep flowing in faster and faster. Because many of these immigrants that are already here for many years. They now start to bring their parents to Belgium. And these people are already 60 + years old. And the number of family reunions gets bigger every year. You could say that the situation is out of control.

be cause

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #92 on: September 21, 2019, 10:54:15 PM »
  .. if Belgians are not making enough babies then they should be grateful to the 'illegals' for doing their work for them .. they will be glad of those 'illegal' children in a generation .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #93 on: September 21, 2019, 10:55:39 PM »
German debt to GDP is still falling
Germany regularly runs a surplus
Germany's population was falling and aging in a similar manner to Japan.
Germany is at full employment according to standard economic measurements
  The immigrants who have come are and will continue to integrate, they will work and help support the aging population.
There is zero evidence that they are causing Germany to take on more debt that it can afford.
As others have said, borrowing to invest in the future and the wellbeing of the people is a good thing.

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #94 on: September 22, 2019, 07:50:50 AM »
The posts from Alexander555 on this subject have no basis in fact whatsoever.

Correct!

For Germany, it is necessary to have migration or else it's breaking down. We are dependent on a steady population number. If this number would go down, the social system would collapse. And without migration, the population would shrink.

Germany is in the heart of Europe. Migration is normal here dating back since humans are a thing. Migration here is the default state.

Only a racist mind would think this is somehow bad.

Being German means you live here and respect the Grundgesetz, not having blond hair and blue eyes.

Racists don't respect the Grundgesetz because they are inherently anti-democratic.
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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #95 on: September 22, 2019, 07:52:56 AM »
German debt to GDP is still falling
Germany regularly runs a surplus
Germany's population was falling and aging in a similar manner to Japan.
Germany is at full employment according to standard economic measurements
  The immigrants who have come are and will continue to integrate, they will work and help support the aging population.
There is zero evidence that they are causing Germany to take on more debt that it can afford.
As others have said, borrowing to invest in the future and the wellbeing of the people is a good thing.

+1
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blumenkraft

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #96 on: September 22, 2019, 07:54:33 AM »
  .. if Belgians are not making enough babies then they should be grateful to the 'illegals' for doing their work for them .. they will be glad of those 'illegal' children in a generation .. b.c.

Glad you put illegal into quotes, B.C.

No person is illegal!
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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #97 on: September 22, 2019, 08:05:12 AM »
Gerontocrat, i have no doubts that you are a wise man. But now you are talking about a subject that is not your strongest subject to talk about.

C'mon. I've never seen a single unique thought of yours. You only parrot the most stupid Nazi propaganda here. And you are the one telling others they are bad informed? You of all people? This is Kafkaesque!
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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #98 on: September 22, 2019, 12:21:08 PM »
  .. if Belgians are not making enough babies then they should be grateful to the 'illegals' for doing their work for them .. they will be glad of those 'illegal' children in a generation .. b.c.

I will give you an example. At my work, the company pays 50 000 € a year for me. From that 50 000 i get something like 20 000 €. But we have a very generous system. We have a tax system in layers. The first layer of 10 000 € is taxfree. And than it goes up by something like 10 000 € from 25 % to 50 % .And for every child you get 1 taxfree layer extra. My college, from Morroco, he has 4 children. So he don't has to pay taxes ont that 50 000. And he gets 18000 a year from childcare. And he managed that one of his children is not 100 % ok ( mentaly). From that he makes another 550 € a month. So he gets something like 74 000 € a year. Completely taxfree. And we have system that for every person that gets 1 € from the government, there has to be a person that pays 1 € to the government. These immigrants and refugees, illegals... They litterly squees the money out of the pockets of the rest. They just don't have money to get more children. Because they get robbed by the government every year more and more.

Alexander555

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #99 on: September 22, 2019, 12:39:51 PM »
Blumenkraft, it looks like Germany is in a recession already. And that after 4000 billion printed money. And last year i spend some time in Germany for a project. And what i noticed, most normal houses. They are divided in mulitple places. Because several people have their postadress at the same house. So you germans can not even afford your own house anymore. That's like in a third world country. They live with the entire family in one room .Robbed by all your illegals.