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FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #100 on: May 30, 2020, 01:35:59 AM »
The CAG (Central American Gyre) may spawn the fourth tropical system in the Atlantic next week, the first official week of Atlantic hurricane season.

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #101 on: June 01, 2020, 05:14:30 PM »
The national hurricane center has given it an 80% chance of development.  Its movement is rather uncertain, as it could head northward toward the States, westward towards Mexico, or southward, back to the Pacific.  Should it become a tropical storm, it would be called Cristobal.

grixm

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #102 on: June 01, 2020, 05:28:51 PM »
Should it become a tropical storm, it would be called Cristobal.

Doesn't it keep its previous name from the EPAC?

pearscot

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #103 on: June 01, 2020, 06:15:37 PM »
Should it become a tropical storm, it would be called Cristobal.

Doesn't it keep its previous name from the EPAC?

No, once it makes landfall and loses its warm core tropical storm structure it is just considered a remnant. Plus it's going into the Atlantic side which has entirely different names, so in this instance it is given a new one. 
pls!

grixm

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #104 on: June 01, 2020, 07:50:28 PM »
Should it become a tropical storm, it would be called Cristobal.

Doesn't it keep its previous name from the EPAC?

No, once it makes landfall and loses its warm core tropical storm structure it is just considered a remnant. Plus it's going into the Atlantic side which has entirely different names, so in this instance it is given a new one.

I see, I was confused because storms that redevelop from remnants keep their earlier names, and storms that cross between the pacific to the atlantic also keep their names. IMO it seems inconsistent that both of these properties combined would suddenly mean it does not keep its name.

pearscot

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #105 on: June 01, 2020, 09:11:36 PM »
Should it become a tropical storm, it would be called Cristobal.

Doesn't it keep its previous name from the EPAC?

No, once it makes landfall and loses its warm core tropical storm structure it is just considered a remnant. Plus it's going into the Atlantic side which has entirely different names, so in this instance it is given a new one.

I see, I was confused because storms that redevelop from remnants keep their earlier names, and storms that cross between the pacific to the atlantic also keep their names. IMO it seems inconsistent that both of these properties combined would suddenly mean it does not keep its name.

I agree with you that it would just make more sense to keep the same name. I suppose it would be confusing for some since the Atlantic side already had Arthur and Bertha.

Either way, soon to be tropical storm *C* is a massive area of low pressure. Not sure what to expect with this one, but this season is sure proving to have the energy in the system to facilitate some powerful storms.
pls!

Phoenix

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #106 on: June 02, 2020, 04:26:24 PM »
Another cyclone headed for India. This time from the Arabian Sea  tracking for landfall in Mumbai tomorrow. Winds will be close to a low end Cat 1.

https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2020/06/02/cyclone-nisarga-set-to-intensify-coastal-areas-on-alert.html

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #107 on: June 02, 2020, 11:32:26 PM »
TS Cristobal has duly formed in the Gulf of Mexico
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #108 on: June 02, 2020, 11:51:30 PM »
That cone is within sharpie distance of Alabama!

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #109 on: June 03, 2020, 12:36:15 AM »
It could hit Alabama.  However, there is such a large uncertainty at the moment, that some forecast have the storm turning south into Mexico or dying out in the Bay of Campeche.

Phoenix

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #110 on: June 03, 2020, 12:39:25 AM »
TS Cristobal has duly formed in the Gulf of Mexico

It's hardly going anywhere for 3 days. Just going to sit there and dump rain on the same region in Mexico. ~ 20" forecast.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #111 on: June 04, 2020, 07:11:17 PM »
Quote
National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) 6/4/20, 10:55 AM
Here are the 10 am CDT June 4 Key Messages for Tropical Depression #Cristobal. There is a risk of storm surge, tropical storm force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of the northern Gulf coast beginning this weekend. Visit hurricanes.gov for more info. 
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1268557099102949377
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Phoenix

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #112 on: June 04, 2020, 08:36:16 PM »
In a squeaker, Cristobal sets a record for earliest third named storm of the season. Local rain forecasts up to 30" now. i wouldn't trust a 5 day forecast on this thing at all given the major land interaction. Water in the gulf is 27-28C, about 2C shy of where it will be at peak season.

edit:not too often that hurricane season and melting season overlap, but the euro model shows cristobal interacting with another system after us landfall and maintaining impressive wind speed as it works it way all the way up to Hudson Bay with peak winds approaching 60 kts.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2020, 01:38:21 AM by Phoenix »

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #113 on: June 05, 2020, 06:21:49 PM »
Forecast appear to be converging around a landfall in Louisiana (west of New Orleans) late Sunday.  The major variability now is the winds; as the forecasts range from 35 (minimum for a tropical storm) to 60 mph.  What is interesting is the forecast acceleration northward towards Hudson Bay, to which Phoenix alluded.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #114 on: June 05, 2020, 07:42:48 PM »
Forecast appear to be converging around a landfall in Louisiana (west of New Orleans) late Sunday.  The major variability now is the winds; as the forecasts range from 35 (minimum for a tropical storm) to 60 mph.  What is interesting is the forecast acceleration northward towards Hudson Bay, to which Phoenix alluded.
And after dumping much rain (& winds) over SE Hudson Bay (Jun 10), gets another lease of life and dumps a big rain (+snow) on South Greenland (Jun 14).
An interesting test for the new upgraded GFS weather forecast system.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Phoenix

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #115 on: June 07, 2020, 02:17:06 PM »
The gulf coast is catching a bit of a break with Christo's relatively rapid northward progression. The storm is starting to show some convection organized around a center, but it's going to run out of time to become something much more substantial.

https://i.imgur.com/6dZi0YA.jpg



Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #116 on: June 07, 2020, 03:09:50 PM »
Cristobal is approaching the Gulf coast:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/071151.shtml

Quote
SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS PASSING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA

LOCATION...28.2N 89.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

grixm

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #117 on: June 07, 2020, 03:28:51 PM »
Cristobal is approaching the Gulf coast:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/071151.shtml


How can it be forecast to stay tropical for so far inland despite not being that strong in the first place?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #118 on: June 07, 2020, 03:52:22 PM »
Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 6/6/20, 4:06 PM
Folks in Waveland, Mississippi preparing their vehicles ahead of Cristobal
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1269359945889337345
26 sec vid:  where do you put your car when you live in a rural area near the coast and significant storm surge is forecast but not enough to make you leave?
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #119 on: June 07, 2020, 05:18:05 PM »
Quote
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 6/7/20, 8:09 AM
Looking pretty likely that Lake Superior will see its first post-tropical cyclone on record this week. (Data back to 1851)
#Cristobal
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1269602383488864258
Image below: paths of other storms.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #120 on: June 07, 2020, 06:59:01 PM »
Cristobal is approaching the Gulf coast:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/071151.shtml


How can it be forecast to stay tropical for so far inland despite not being that strong in the first place?
My guess is that until it gets that far north it will not meet weather to destroy its warm centre.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/071450.shtml?
A merger with an extratropical cyclone over the Great Lakes area is
expected by day 5.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-hermine-transition-impacts-forecast-post-tropical#:~:text=Hurricanes%20and%20tropical%20storms%20often,to%20a%20non%2Dtropical%20storm.
Tropical vs. Non-Tropical Cyclones
A tropical (or warm core) cyclone (area of low pressure) usually forms over warm waters in the tropics. Air rises rapidly around the edges of the center of the storm. Sinking air in the center of the storm heats up the air, so the storm has warm temperatures from the surface all the way up to high levels of the atmosphere. Hurricanes and tropical storms are (warm core) tropical cyclones.

At the surface, stronger winds are usually proximate to the storm's location and they diminish quickly when you move away from the storm.

A non-tropical (or cold core) storm has the coldest temperatures in the center of the storm. Temperatures cool as you move higher in the atmosphere and there is a trough at the highest levels. Unlike tropical (warm core) storms, winds are not as concentrated near the center of the storm, but can spread out for hundreds of miles from it.

Precipitation in a cold core (non-tropical cyclone) can also spread far away from the center of the storm. Most mid-latitude storms are cold core including nor'easters.

Tropical cyclones are nearly symmetric in shape and are without fronts. Mid-latitude (cold core) cyclones are comma shaped and have fronts associated with them.

Hurricanes and tropical storms often transition to cold core cyclones. When the National Hurricane Center concludes that a tropical storm has transitioned to a (cold core) mid-latitude storm it will designate it as "post-tropical" meaning that it has transitioned to a non-tropical storm.

The transition often occurs when a tropical cyclone moves to higher latitudes and interacts with atmospheric features that are more common there.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #121 on: June 08, 2020, 09:51:04 PM »
Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 6/6/20, 4:06 PM
Folks in Waveland, Mississippi preparing their vehicles ahead of Cristobal
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1269359945889337345
26 sec vid:  where do you put your car when you live in a rural area near the coast and significant storm surge is forecast but not enough to make you leave?

Image below from The Weather Channel:
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Phoenix

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #122 on: June 13, 2020, 02:06:14 PM »
Interesting article on heightened tropical wave activity originating in Africa this year.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-06-12-tropical-waves-atlantic-hurricane-season-june

KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #123 on: June 15, 2020, 09:16:50 PM »
For the tropical cyclone junkies.
Many of us read cat 6 blog during the US hurricane season .
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/eye-on-the-storm/
Quote

Welcome to “Eye on the Storm” …

The unexpected June 2020 announcement of what it correctly called the “end of an era” in the closing of Jeff Masters’ and Bob Henson’s Cat6 site sent shivers through the weather and associated climate change community. With Masters’ immediate continuation of his analyses via Yale Climate Connections – and Henson’s soon joining Masters as a regular YCC contributor – the beat goes on (also see YCC announcement).

Amid the challenges of the continuing global pandemic and in-progress changes to the YCC website, we’re working to implement the needed comments tools critical to ongoing engagement of Masters’ and Henson’s loyal followers. It can’t happen overnight, but we are working diligently toward that end.

Yale Climate Connections welcomes all Cat6 and new followers to this emerging effort. Sign up to receive email updates on progress toward the full blog launch.

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #124 on: June 15, 2020, 10:05:48 PM »
NOAA list the following as the most intense Atlantic hurricane seasons on record (since 1850) in order:  1933, 2005, 1893, 1926, 1995, 2004, 2017, 1950, 1961, 1998.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/comparison_table.html

1933:  first TS formed on May 14 in the Gulf, the second formed from a tropical wave on June 25 and became the first hurricane of the season.
2005:  TS one formed on June 8 and TS two on June 28, both in the Gulf.
1893:  One TS formed in the Gulf on June 12.
1926:  No storms were recorded until the Great Bahamas hurricane (cat. 4) on July 22.
1995:  One hurricane formed from a tropical wave on June 2.
2004:  No storms until July 31
2017:  The first TS formed on April 16, the second and third on June 19 and 20, both from waves.
1950:  No storms until August 12
1961:  First storm formed on July 21, reaching Cat. 2 hurricane.  The second storm did not form until September.
1998:  The first tropical storm formed from a tropical wave on July 27.

In two of the 10 most intense hurricane seasons, a tropical storm formed before June 1, the official start of hurricane season.  Three years saw the first storm form in June.  In four years, the first storm formed in July, and in one year, the first storm formed in August.  In only one of those ten years (2005) did three tropical storms from before July.  The early start to the hurricane season this year, may not be an indicator of the intensity of the season.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #125 on: June 16, 2020, 04:02:05 AM »
When politics decides the weather.

Independent panel finds NOAA leadership violated code of ethics in "Sharpiegate"
Quote
An independent panel commissioned by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found that two top officials violated the agency’s code of ethics during a series of events that led to an NOAA statement contradicting its own meteorologists to support President Trump’s false claims about the path of Hurricane Dorian.

Why it matters: The September episode, which came to be known as "Sharpiegate" after Trump drew on a map of Hurricane Dorian's path to support his assessment that it could hit Alabama, embroiled the NOAA in a scandal about possible political interference within the scientific agency. ...
https://www.axios.com/noaa-sharpiegate-investigation-74d5f6c6-7004-4cb1-bd94-4d22a7942f1e.html
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Phoenix

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #126 on: June 21, 2020, 05:17:47 PM »
While we have relative quiet in the northern hemisphere tropical cyclone season with the sahara dust storm moving through the atlantic basin, let's take a look at how ocean temperatures are evolving.

The Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Dominican are currently running around 29C, plenty of heat for a big storm.

The waters around Cuba are the warmest in the region at ~ 30C. A storm coming in just north of Cuba could be ripe for intensification and hurt the Bahamas or S. Florida.

Most of the Gulf of Mexico is at 27.5-28C which is kinda average for this time of year. Not yet at a temperature likely to promote extreme rapid intensification. Similar or slightly temperatures exist along the Atlantic coast from mid-Florida up to NC. The current setup wouldn't support a storm like Florence coming in to the Carolina's from due east.

The Eastern Pacific is running around 30C raising the possibility of a storm impacting Mexico.

On the Pacific side, the waters east of the Philippines are already at 30C. Further north, east of Japan the ocean temps are only ~ 25C.

For reference, Amphan intensified over 31C waters last month in the Bay of Bengal.

More potential warming to come with the arrival of summer.

Phoenix

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #127 on: June 29, 2020, 02:54:35 PM »
Most of the Gulf of Mexico is at 27.5-28C which is kinda average for this time of year. Not yet at a temperature likely to promote extreme rapid intensification. Similar temperatures exist along the Atlantic coast from mid-Florida up to NC.


My Florida peeps have been complaining about the heat and the local waters are reflecting that. The Eastern third of the Gulf has increased by 1C+ in the last week. There is now a 30C path from the western Dominican Republic to Tampa Bay.

The Gulfstream is also warming considerably on the east coast. Any storm near Florida would have plenty of heat to work with.

Some small disturbances with low probability of development are about. Nothing noteworthy at this point. The drying impact of the Saharan dust should be abating.