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Alexander555

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Re: Floods
« Reply #350 on: June 29, 2019, 09:00:02 PM »
Looks like a repeat of last year. 

Pragma

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Re: Floods
« Reply #351 on: June 29, 2019, 09:49:53 PM »
Looks like a repeat of last year.

Hard to say, considering there are no units and no scale.

What is it you are showing?

morganism

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Re: Floods
« Reply #352 on: June 29, 2019, 11:10:14 PM »
Siberian flooding ongoing

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Alexander555

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Re: Floods
« Reply #353 on: June 29, 2019, 11:11:20 PM »
It's mm of rain for the next 10 days. In most places that's already above the average for the month of June or July . And they already had some showers in the last few days. So it looks like it's plenty.

Alexander555

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Re: Floods
« Reply #354 on: June 30, 2019, 10:28:35 PM »

sidd

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Re: Floods
« Reply #355 on: July 02, 2019, 09:53:47 AM »

vox_mundi

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Re: Floods
« Reply #356 on: July 02, 2019, 06:49:45 PM »

Deadly Floods In Russia Leave Thousands Homeless

https://www.rferl.org/a/death-toll-raised-to-14-in-siberian-floods-13-missing/30032563.html

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North Carolina Leaders Call for Flood-Ready Infrastructure
https://www.publicnewsservice.org/2019-07-02/environment/north-carolina-leaders-call-for-flood-ready-infrastructure/a66965-1

RALEIGH, N.C. — After North Carolina experienced the wrath of two 500-year storms over the course of two years, there are calls for smarter federal investments on flood mitigation.

Hurricane Florence flooded more than 1,200 roads in the state in 2018, all while repair work from 2016’s Hurricane Matthew was still under way in some spots. While coastal cities bear most of the brunt of storms, Wilmington Mayor Bill Saffo said more inland communities are facing damage.

"A lot of those people are throwing up their hands and saying, 'Enough is enough, I'm moving to higher ground,' and saying, 'I'm not going to experience another flood. I've had enough,’” Saffo said.

... More than three dozen city leaders from North Carolina recently sent a letter to the U.S. House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, urging members to create a federal-aid highway pre-disaster mitigation program. ... "Just to make sure that when we build something, we're doing it right the first time,” he said. “Infrastructure is typically designed to last 40, 50, 60-plus years, so we need to account for risk throughout that design lifetime."

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No End in Sight for Record Midwest Flood Crisis
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/no-end-in-sight-for-record-midwest-flood-crisis/

The 2019 Mississippi River flood fight is going to slog deep into the summer — and maybe much longer.

While communities north of St. Louis are beginning the expensive path to recovery after record-breaking winter and spring precipitation and runoff, people below the Missouri River are shoveling mud from their houses and praying for a dry spell.

The Lower Mississippi Valley remains in a flood crisis as high water continues to swamp streets, homes, businesses, sewage and water treatment plants, and farm fields, including across some of the poorest counties in the United States.

... "Our flooding has been over 100 days. We have an increasingly severe homelessness situation. ... Hopes have been completely destroyed," ... "With 38.5 inches of rain, our poor folks get hit the hardest."

... The floods have also taken roughly 3 million acres of corn production out of the economy this year. That translates into a 4% reduction in income to farmers, or $4.5 billion in corn receipts, he said.
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Aluminium

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Re: Floods
« Reply #357 on: July 03, 2019, 07:35:03 AM »

Alexander555

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Re: Floods
« Reply #358 on: July 03, 2019, 08:28:24 PM »
1000 mm since friday, and more to come. https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20190704_03/

KiwiGriff

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Re: Floods
« Reply #359 on: July 05, 2019, 10:56:30 PM »
On the topic of flood events in the USA's planting season.
Tamino at open mind has an interesting post on the shift in probity for extreme rainfall events in the Ohio Valley.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/07/05/bet-the-farm-on-climate/
Quote
Now to the real point. The chances of 2 inches or more precipitation higher than average used to be only about 5%. Now that chance is about 10%. The odds themselves have changed, and the odds of too much rain have changed a lot.

Archimid

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Re: Floods
« Reply #360 on: July 06, 2019, 04:15:03 AM »
Tamino gets it.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Floods
« Reply #361 on: July 06, 2019, 05:25:49 PM »
On the topic of flood events in the USA's planting season.
Tamino at open mind has an interesting post on the shift in probity for extreme rainfall events in the Ohio Valley.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/07/05/bet-the-farm-on-climate/
Quote
Now to the real point. The chances of 2 inches or more precipitation higher than average used to be only about 5%. Now that chance is about 10%. The odds themselves have changed, and the odds of too much rain have changed a lot.

True, and the odds of 2 inches or more less than average have decreased from 5% to 1%.  The odds of too little rain have decrease even more. 

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Floods
« Reply #362 on: July 06, 2019, 08:34:09 PM »
Please Kat, add a source.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Floods
« Reply #363 on: July 06, 2019, 09:32:41 PM »
Please Kat, add a source.

Why, when the source has been provided in the previous post?

kassy

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Re: Floods
« Reply #364 on: July 06, 2019, 10:01:40 PM »
Quote
The chances of 2 inches or more precipitation higher than average used to be only about 5%. Now that chance is about 10%

the odds of 2 inches or more less than average have decreased from 5% to 1%.  The odds of too little rain have decrease even more.

It is a distribution pattern so one follows from the other. What matters to the farmer is when what weather hits. You can have both in a season or maybe none, if you are lucky.

Darvince

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Re: Floods
« Reply #365 on: July 07, 2019, 01:35:24 PM »
Feel free to call me a denier for this, but I see this odd feature. I added the brown box to show it, and the box doesn't cover a single point that was already in the image. Raw image link

It seems that the chances of a month below ~1" of rain have almost vanished. Of course, I would not be surprised if there is soon another month with less than ~1" of rain, but this is far longer than any previous stretch in the record.

kassy

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Re: Floods
« Reply #366 on: July 07, 2019, 08:40:18 PM »
That basically tells you it got wetter.

One interesting thing to look at would be corn growing and if it changes during the nineties. Corn is so good at evaporation that it depressed temperatures in 2 squares of a high resolution US climate model and both were corn growing regions. One was in that state, not sure if it is in the valley.

A factor in this might be the biofuel subsidies but i don´t know when they became a thing.


Klondike Kat

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Re: Floods
« Reply #367 on: July 08, 2019, 03:10:55 PM »
That basically tells you it got wetter.

One interesting thing to look at would be corn growing and if it changes during the nineties. Corn is so good at evaporation that it depressed temperatures in 2 squares of a high resolution US climate model and both were corn growing regions. One was in that state, not sure if it is in the valley.

A factor in this might be the biofuel subsidies but i don´t know when they became a thing.

The corn ethanol market took off around 2000, and started to slow around 2010.

https://ebionline.org/2018/09/18/the-future-of-corn-ethanol/

Archimid

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Re: Floods
« Reply #368 on: July 08, 2019, 03:26:27 PM »
That drought was part of the natural balance, for which crops and farmers have adapted to for hundreds of years, thousands in the case of native crops. If the trend continues the adaptations to drought will be useless, but they will have to invest into new adaptions for the new levels of rain, no guarantees on the results.

We know it will get warmer, precipitation will increase, seasonality will change. Yet we are expecting for farmers to adapt at the same time we are telling them they don't have to worry about adapting.

Madness.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Floods
« Reply #369 on: July 08, 2019, 03:27:13 PM »
But are places like the Great Plains getting drier?
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morganism

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Re: Floods
« Reply #370 on: July 08, 2019, 11:53:29 PM »
It's not over...

This developing low may go to trop storm. Then it gets nasty with the huge, cool low coming in from the PNW. All that moisture, and the cold front running into a TS.. I expect a huge tornado outbreak, and major flooding in the lower Miss.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Invest-92L-Likely-be-Tropical-Storm-Gulf-Mexico-Saturday?cm_ven=cat6-widget

Darvince

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Re: Floods
« Reply #371 on: July 11, 2019, 01:04:34 PM »
But are places like the Great Plains getting drier?
Pretty much anywhere that the ground at least occasionally freezes in winter is getting wetter as winters warm up, as cold air can hold so little moisture. So... Kansas and northwards are at least? Dunno about OK & TX.

Rich

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Re: Floods
« Reply #372 on: July 11, 2019, 01:21:40 PM »
NHC is indicating 15-20" (38-50 cm) rain potential in South / Central Louisiana from Barry.


sidd

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Re: Floods
« Reply #373 on: July 12, 2019, 12:32:48 AM »
Re: But are places like the Great Plains getting drier?

The corn line (west of which you need irrigation for corn, about 100W) is moving east.

sidd

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Floods
« Reply #374 on: July 12, 2019, 07:50:13 PM »
Slow Moving Tropical Storm BARRY takes Aim Louisiana Coast, Goes Full Circle


petm

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Re: Floods
« Reply #375 on: July 13, 2019, 12:30:52 AM »
Yep, New Orleans might get destroyed, again. This time it may not even be a "level 1 hurricane" that does it. Just consistent heavy rains, high rivers, and a decent sized storm.

Will New Orleans be the first American city to be eventually abandoned? Should the government really be spending gazillions to upgrade their levies and buy a few decades (if lucky)?

People need to move a few meters above current sea level, not defend areas already below it. Have they heard of climate change?

Tropical storm "Barry"? Or Bury...
« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 01:01:52 AM by petm »

Alexander555

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Re: Floods
« Reply #376 on: July 13, 2019, 01:04:42 PM »
And there is still plenty of rain comming down from west to east. And 2 typhoons are forcasted to move in from the east. https://watchers.news/2019/07/13/china-floods-2019-july-12-status/

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Floods
« Reply #377 on: July 13, 2019, 07:16:47 PM »
Quote
Barry sent a storm surge up the Mississippi River towards New Orleans on Friday that peaked at 16.93’ above sea level—a full three feet below the tops of the levees, which protect the city to a river flood 20’ high. The Saturday morning forecast from NOAA’s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service has the river rising again due to predicted rainfall, but no higher than 17.1’ through early next week, so it appears New Orleans has dodged a major bullet. Earlier this week, forecasts called for the river to crest near 20’, right at the tops of the levees in New Orleans.

New Orleans still has to contend, though, with serious rainwater flooding that may result from the expected 5+ inches of rain expected to fall on the city over the coming three days.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Floods
« Reply #378 on: Today at 05:09:52 PM »
Tiger, Rhinos Flee to Higher Ground in India's Flood-Hit Assam
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-tiger-rhinos-higher-ground-india.html



... Wild buffalos running in floodwaters, exhausted rhinos resting on patches of land and elephants crossing a road were some of the unusual sights as World Heritage-listed Kaziranga National Park rangers raced to reach animals struggling in the waters.

The UNESCO-recognised Kaziranga is home to two-thirds of the world's remaining one-horned rhinos and several have been spotted basking in the sun on a patches of high ground surrounded by water.

More than 50 wild animals have died so far, including some in traffic accidents, as they tried to cross a busy highway outside the park and reach the nearby Karbi hills, local media reported.

... The floods, which are in their second week, have so far killed at least 27 people in Assam, sweeping away houses and boats. Across South Asia, including Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan, the death toll has risen above 300 with millions of residents affected and hundreds of thousands displaced.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late