Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Floods  (Read 71447 times)

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3063
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 375
  • Likes Given: 189
Re: Floods
« Reply #400 on: August 12, 2019, 10:07:48 PM »
A good friend of mine spent a year in Kerala, ending in mid 2018, before last year's flooding when they were still reeling from the then-current drought.  And now flooding again.  Floods like this, her Indian friends tell her, never used to happen in Kerala. 

Will the monsoon no longer feel like a relief from the drought, but be just one type of misery after a different type of misery?
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1576
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 349
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: Floods
« Reply #401 on: August 13, 2019, 02:21:32 AM »
In the state of Kerala alone, at least 76 people were killed in rain-related incidents. "Several houses are still covered under 10-12 feet (3-3.6 meters) of deep mud
https://www.dw.com/en/monsoon-floods-wreak-havoc-on-india-death-toll-up/a-49987562
Louisiana seeing more floods, bigger floods:
Indeed, the average amount of rain Louisiana gets each year has increased 20 percent to 30 percent in the past 100 years, according to a 2014 climate assessment.
https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/weather_traffic/article_418dfcc8-b2ff-11e9-ad50-9b94c47fa8d2.html

« Last Edit: August 13, 2019, 02:31:28 AM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1576
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 349
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: Floods
« Reply #402 on: August 15, 2019, 09:31:43 PM »
India floods kill more than 270, displace one million
http://news.trust.org/item/20190814105002-yyrlt/
At least 95 people were killed and more than 50 are missing in Kerala, where heavy rainfall triggered dozens of landslides last week and trapped more than 100 people.
About 190,000 people are still living in relief camps in the state, said Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, but he added some people are returning home as flood waters recede.
In neighbouring Karnataka, home to the technology hub Bengaluru, 54 people died and 15 are missing after rivers burst their banks when authorities released water from dams.
Nearly 700,000 people have been evacuated in the state.

Multiple year descriptions of this years American flooding:
https://www.kosu.org/post/wet-wild-and-high-lakes-and-rivers-wreak-havoc-across-midwest-south
Here is from my neck of the woods, for example
For several years, it was record low water levels in the Great Lakes that were worrying people. Lake Michigan and Lake Huron reached their lowest levels ever in January 2013. Now the opposite is true. As heavy winter snows melted and joined water pouring into the lakes from rivers swollen with spring rainfall, Lakes Superior, Erie and Ontario reached unprecedented high levels this year. In early August, they were 1 to 6 inches above the monthly August record for those waterways, while Lakes Michigan and Huron were just 2 inches shy of their record water level for the month.
Joel Brammeier, president and CEO of the Alliance for the Great Lakes, says it's a natural phenomenon for the lakes to rise and fall, but this extended rise is unusual. Some attribute it, in part, to a change in climate patterns. Brammeier adds that intense storms also lead to more pollution running off into the lakes.
"In Western Lake Erie, for example, you're seeing massive blooms of algae that are sometimes toxic to people and pets that are being caused by this concentration of agricultural fertilizer washing off into Lake Erie," says Brammeier. Runoff from city streets causes pollution problems, too.

« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 09:40:16 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1451
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: Floods
« Reply #403 on: August 23, 2019, 01:28:18 PM »
'100-year' floods will happen every 1 to 30 years, according to new flood maps

Quote
In a new paper published in the journal Nature Communications, researchers combined storm surge, sea level rise, and the predicted increased occurrence and strength in tropical storms and hurricanes to create a map of flood hazard possibility along the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico. Coastlines at northern latitudes, like those in New England, will face higher flood levels primarily because of sea level rise. Those in more southern latitudes, especially along the Gulf of Mexico, will face higher flood levels because of both sea level rise and increasing storms into the late 21st century.

More information: Reza Marsooli et al, Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns, Nature Communications (2019). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3971
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Floods
« Reply #404 on: August 23, 2019, 02:59:17 PM »
'100-year' floods will happen every 1 to 30 years, according to new flood maps

Quote
In a new paper published in the journal Nature Communications, researchers combined storm surge, sea level rise, and the predicted increased occurrence and strength in tropical storms and hurricanes to create a map of flood hazard possibility along the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico. Coastlines at northern latitudes, like those in New England, will face higher flood levels primarily because of sea level rise. Those in more southern latitudes, especially along the Gulf of Mexico, will face higher flood levels because of both sea level rise and increasing storms into the late 21st century.

More information: Reza Marsooli et al, Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns, Nature Communications (2019). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z

This study looked at coastlines but we will see the same impact in interior regions due to increasingly intense rainfall events. If you live near a river flood plain...

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1451
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: Floods
« Reply #405 on: August 23, 2019, 03:25:49 PM »
Not only that... the flow of rivers depend on the sea level..the consequences indeed cascade inwards...

bligh8

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 310
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 57
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Floods
« Reply #406 on: August 27, 2019, 06:07:17 PM »
                                  Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events

"G.R.Brakenridge, "Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events", Dartmouth Flood Observatory, University of Colorado, http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/Archives/index.html.
The information presented in this Archive is derived from news, governmental, instrumental, and remote sensing sources. The archive is "active" because current events are added immediately.
Each entry in the table and related "area affected" map outline represents a discrete flood event. However, repeat flooding in some regions is a complex phenomenon and may require a compromise between aggregating and dividing such events. The listing is comprehensive and global in scope. Deaths and displaced estimates for tropical storms are totals from all causes, but tropical storms without significant river flooding are not included.
The Archive includes: 1) an online .html table of recent events, only; 2) Excel .xlsx and .xml files for all events, 1985-present, updated as the recent events html is updated; and 3) Zip-compressed GIS MapInfo format and Shp format files, each providing flood catalog numbers, centroids, area affected outlines, and other attribute information and updated as the recent events html is updated."  ..  More within the web page/article

https://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/Archives/

bligh

 

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1576
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 349
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: Floods
« Reply #407 on: August 29, 2019, 10:16:43 PM »
State studying impact of climate change on Indiana storm water systems
https://www.heraldbulletin.com/news/local_news/state-studying-impact-of-climate-change-on-indiana-storm-water/article_6e9767a2-c9c7-11e9-bc73-0b57c2421f15.html
Quote
“We are seeing an increasing number of days per year that are having these extreme rainfall events," Indiana State Climatologist Beth Hall said. "These maximize the capacity of the storm water systems, the drainage systems in the area.”

Indiana’s annual rainfall has increased by about 5 inches during the past century; southern Indiana has seen the largest jump, about 7 inches.

Climate Change Is Shifting Europe's Flood Patterns, and These Regions Are Feeling the Consequences
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28082019/climate-change-river-flood-risk-europe-extreme-weather-magnitude-regions-study
Quote
Global warming is driving big changes in floods across Europe by fueling the atmosphere with more moisture and changing the path and speed of rain storms, new research shows.

In some areas, that means more rainfall and surging rivers that could overwhelm levees if communities don't plan for increasing flooding. Other regions have seen a decline in rain and snow, which sets up a different challenge: as flood risk there decreases, it could discourage investments in defensive measures, leaving communities vulnerable to less frequent but still damaging extreme storms.

Climate change implicated by a flood of data
Multinational study reveals different flooding trends across Europe.
https://cosmosmagazine.com/climate/climate-change-implicated-by-a-flood-of-data
Quote
The multinational research team, which looked at river flow data from thousands of locations over half a century, says its findings provide the clearest evidence yet, at the European scale, of the link between climate change and flooding.

The changes range from an 11% increase in flood levels in northern England and southern Scotland to a 23% reduction in parts of Russia.

The study, which is published in the journal Nature, was led by the Vienna University of Technology, Austria, and involved research institutions in 24 countries.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2019, 10:27:23 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15724
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 469
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Floods
« Reply #408 on: September 13, 2019, 03:47:09 AM »
Storm brings heaviest rainfall on record to parts of eastern Spain
Quote
Muddy water rushed through streets, washing away cars, and almost reached the tops of the front doors of houses along the riverbank. Water also overflowed the Pantano de Almansa dam.

The Clariano rose nine metres (30ft) in two hours around the Valencia town of Aielo de Malferit and destroyed a 16th-century bridge, according to the local mayor Juan Rafael Espí.

Train lines and roads were closed, and trees and fences blown over. A mini-tornado was also reported....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/12/south-east-spain-battered-by-heaviest-rainfall-on-record
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1659
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 659
  • Likes Given: 114
Re: Floods
« Reply #409 on: September 15, 2019, 04:44:46 AM »


Spain floods: entire towns submerged after south-east battered by severe storms
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1576
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 349
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: Floods
« Reply #410 on: September 16, 2019, 05:16:01 PM »
The Great Flood of 2019: A Complete
Picture of a Slow-Motion Disaster
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/11/us/midwest-flooding.html?searchResultPosition=1
This is an interactive map of the central USA.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1659
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 659
  • Likes Given: 114
Re: Floods
« Reply #411 on: September 17, 2019, 01:34:16 AM »
Third Round of Flooding in 2019 Likely Along Missouri River
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-09-16/missouri-river-flooding

OMAHA —  The amount of water flowing down the lower Missouri River this year is approaching the record set during the historic 2011 flood, and another round of flooding is expected this week after unusually heavy rains upstream, federal officials said.

Heavy rains dumped more than four times what is normal in parts of Montana, North and South Dakota and Nebraska last week — triggering flood warnings and forcing the forecast for how much water will flow down the Missouri River to jump by 4 million acre-feet (1.22 million meters) to 58.8 million acre-feet (17.92 million meters).

... When the river crests near Omaha, on Friday and Saturday, parts of Interstates 29 and 680 could again be under water. Residents of Dakota Dunes, S.D., have been encouraged to evacuate their homes as a precaution because the river is already threatening that city. The river will peak there on Tuesday.

In March, massive flooding caused more than $3 billion in damage in Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and Missouri. In June, flooding returned and inundated many of the same places because most damaged levees remained broken.

The river will remain high throughout the fall because the Corps of Engineers plans to continue releasing large amounts of water into the river to clear out space in the reservoirs ahead of winter.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Richard Rathbone

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 532
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 38
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: Floods
« Reply #412 on: September 17, 2019, 08:56:34 PM »
Those conversions are wrong. I'm not sure what they are supposed to be, since one unit is a volume and the other isn't, but it looks like someone has ignored the acre in the conversion.

dnem

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 320
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 119
  • Likes Given: 54
Re: Floods
« Reply #413 on: September 17, 2019, 09:25:05 PM »
well, the conversion from feet to meters is correct.  They would have to be "acre-meters" which isn't really a thing.

bligh8

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 310
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 57
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Floods
« Reply #414 on: September 17, 2019, 10:25:25 PM »
Is Houston America's Flood Capital?

According to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, there were 96 days with at least one report of flooding or flash flooding in Harris County from 1996 through 2015. This equates to an average of four to five days of flooding each year over that time period.
Of course, not all of these flood events are as severe as April 2016, Memorial Day 2015, or Allison in 2001. The fact that flooding happens with such regularity most years in an area just slightly larger than the state of Rhode Island is quite impressive.

There have been at least 26 events that flooded homes in the Houston metro area since the mid-1970s, according to Houston-based Weather Research Center (WRC) and National Weather Service records. WRC documented area floods, some related to tropical cyclones, back to 1837, the year after the city was founded.
These events have happened every time of the year, even in late fall and winter.
Apart from the prodigious rainfall from tropical cyclones and their remnants, thunderstorms and thunderstorm clusters tend to slow and stall near the Gulf Coast, especially from late spring through early fall.
There's also Houston's geography and method of flood control.
"We now force rainwater into streets, and then into bayous, which flush out to Galveston Bay and the Gulf (of Mexico)," said Matt Lanza, an operational meteorologist in energy based in Houston.
Lanza says the streets, therefore, are part of the flood control system. "It's a good idea in theory because you'd rather flood roads and cars than houses. But I'm not sure any method of flood protection can prevent what unfolded over us in April 2016."
Then, there's Houston's notorious urban sprawl.

"The population has exploded here in the last 10 years, much of it settling north and west of the city," said Lanza.

"What was once farm or wetlands is now pavement and suburbia. Thus, there is less barren land to suck up the rain now, and that further exacerbates flooding."
Houston also sits only about 43 feet above sea level, so the flat system of bayous drains very slowly.

As severe as recent flood events were, imagine what happens when a tropical storm moves inland, its remnants stall, then move back over the Houston metro area.



TROPICAL STORM ALLISON (2001)
U.S. Highway 59 in Houston, Texas, remained flooded on June 10, 2001, due to rain from Tropical
 
Such was the case with Tropical Storm Allison in 2001.
An initial soaking as Allison moved ashore on June 5-6 was followed by a second epic deluge after Allison's remnant moved off the Texas coast on June 8-9.
By the time the rains ended, parts of the Houston metro area had picked up more than 35 inches of rainfall over the five-day period, much of which fell during that second round. This is roughly three-quarters of the average annual rainfall in just five days.
Furthermore, Allison's torrential rain – 10 inches or more –  was much more widespread over the Houston metro, not to mention east Texas and the northern Gulf Coast (map), than the Memorial Day event of 2015.
More than 14,000 homes were destroyed or heavily damaged, with an additional 34,000 homes suffering at least minor damage, according to the National Hurricane Center's recap.
Total damage from Allison was estimated at $9 billion, easily the costliest tropical cyclone that never became a hurricane in U.S. history. Allison claimed 23 lives in Texas and became the first non-hurricane to have its name retired by the World Meteorological Organization.
Here are a few bayou crests in Harris County from the Memorial Day event, compared to Allison and other events.
Buffalo Bayou at Shepherd Drive (west of downtown Houston; flood stage is 28 feet):

Brays Bayou at Beltway 8 (southwest Harris County; top of bank is 64.2 feet):
Memorial Day 2015 crest: 65.91 feet
Hurricane Ike 2008 crest: 58.7 feet
This Memorial Day event was near the September 1983 flood of record along middle and upper Brays Bayou, per the Harris County Flood Control District.
Greens Bayou at Shepherd Drive (outside Interstate 610 loop northeast of downtown Houston; flood stage is 30 feet):
Memorial Day 2015 crest: 34.02 feet
Hurricane Ike 2008 crest: 36.24 feet
Allison 2001 crest: 44.01 feet (the record crest)

More within the article

Todays events in Huston


oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4494
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 881
  • Likes Given: 1288
Re: Floods
« Reply #415 on: September 17, 2019, 11:14:49 PM »
bligh8, it seems the link is missing. But even more important, there is no mention of Hurricane Harvey (8/2017).

bligh8

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 310
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 57
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Floods
« Reply #416 on: September 17, 2019, 11:44:07 PM »
 Oren.....Yea, that's me so engrossed in the article I often forget to include the "link".

https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/2019-05-09-houston-americas-flood-capital

Hurricane Harvey
Harvey was the most widespread and extreme rainfall event from any tropical depression, storm or hurricane in U.S. history dating to the late 19th century.
(MORE: Full Harvey Recap | 3 Highest-Volume U.S. Rain Events Happened From 2016-2018)
After landfalling at Category 4 intensity along the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi, Harvey's agonizingly slow crawl produced up to 60 inches of rain in a pair of locations near Beaumont and Port Arthur in late August 2017.
Virtually the entire Houston metro area picked up at least 20 inches of rain, with some totals exceeding 40 inches. The total area covered by the 20-inch Harvey swath in east Texas and Louisiana was estimated to be almost the size of South Carolina.

Thanks

bligh

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1576
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 349
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: Floods
« Reply #417 on: September 18, 2019, 07:13:23 PM »
Third round of flooding in 2019 likely along Missouri River
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/round-flooding-2019-missouri-river-65650535
Quote
The amount of water flowing down the lower Missouri River this year is approaching the record set during the historic 2011 flood, and another round of flooding is expected this week after unusually heavy rains upstream, federal officials said.

Heavy rains dumped more than four times what is normal in parts of Montana, North and South Dakota and Nebraska last week — triggering flood warnings and forcing the forecast for how much water will flow down the Missouri River to jump by 4 million acre feet (1.22 million meters) to 58.8 million acre feet (17.92 million meters).
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15724
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 469
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Floods
« Reply #418 on: September 18, 2019, 07:58:02 PM »
”water will flow down the Missouri River to jump by 4 million acre-feet (1.22 million meters)”


Quote
Those conversions are wrong. I'm not sure what they are supposed to be, since one unit is a volume and the other isn't, but it looks like someone has ignored the acre in the conversion.

Quote
well, the conversion from feet to meters is correct.  They would have to be "acre-meters" which isn't really a thing.

But apparently “meter-acres” is a thing....
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1576
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 349
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: Floods
« Reply #419 on: September 18, 2019, 08:24:36 PM »
Floodwaters Diverted from New Orleans Killed Off Marine Life
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/floodwaters-diverted-from-new-orleans-killed-off-marine-life/
Quote
The federal government's effort to avoid a flood disaster in New Orleans had catastrophic consequences of its own, causing massive fish kills and habitat destruction along the Gulf Coast, according to the governors of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1576
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 349
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: Floods
« Reply #420 on: September 20, 2019, 11:53:50 PM »
Climate change will boost risk of extreme flooding in northern Europe
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2216760-climate-change-will-boost-risk-of-extreme-flooding-in-northern-europe/
Quote
Climate change will increase the risk of heavy rainfall and storm surges combining to cause extreme flooding around the UK, Germany and other parts of northern Europe.

Coastal communities already face the prospect of a worst-case average sea level rise of about a metre by the end of the century, as temperatures rise. But Emanuele Bevacqua at the University of Reading, UK, and his colleagues found the risk from rising seas may be aggravated further by compound flooding, where heavy rainfall and storm surges occur at the same time to have greater impact.

SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 784
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 296
  • Likes Given: 343
Re: Floods
« Reply #421 on: September 30, 2019, 01:52:37 PM »
Bihar and Uttar Pradesh: More than 100 dead in fresh India flood chaos

...

The city (Patna) has been deluged with rain since Friday, submerging many residential areas. People are navigating the main roads - which are dotted with abandoned and partially submerged vehicles - by boat.

The PTI news agency quoted an official as saying that the amount of rain the city received was "completely unexpected".

for details see:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-49875027
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

nanning

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 937
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 141
  • Likes Given: 6159
Re: Floods
« Reply #422 on: September 30, 2019, 05:20:12 PM »
^^
The south-west monsoon arrives and it is not heaven but hell.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6627
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1550
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: Floods
« Reply #423 on: September 30, 2019, 07:10:30 PM »
”water will flow down the Missouri River to jump by 4 million acre-feet (1.22 million meters)”
The acre-foot is the most common measure of water volume in the USA

1 Acre-foot  = 1,233.5 cubic meters

4 million acre feet of water = nearly 5,000 million cubic metres = 5 GT.

However, the quotes do not say per day, per hour, per month & so are completely and utterly  useless.
_________________________________________________________
ps: maximum Greenland lost in one day's melt this year was 12.5 GT
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

miki

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 114
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 157
Re: Floods
« Reply #424 on: September 30, 2019, 10:10:14 PM »
ps: maximum Greenland lost in one day's melt this year was 12.5 GT

Holy crap!

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 166
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Floods
« Reply #425 on: September 30, 2019, 10:17:51 PM »
ps: maximum Greenland lost in one day's melt this year was 12.5 GT

Holy crap!
That sounds like a lot but in comparison to spring snowmelt it actually seems like surprisingly little. We have graphs for North America's total SWE but we do not have graphs for flux. As snow volume totals increase across the continent, flux is probably increasing even faster. I believe we lost about 1,000KM^3 net in the span of two weeks last spring (or maybe it was this spring). This is far greater than Greenland, and even this measurement ignores gross flux. Thusly, if Greenland melt has an impact on oceanic currents (and it definitely does) one would think the impact of seasonal meltflux across North America and Eurasia is actually even greater than that of Greenland.

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4494
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 881
  • Likes Given: 1288
Re: Floods
« Reply #426 on: October 03, 2019, 04:42:17 AM »
Thusly, if Greenland melt has an impact on oceanic currents (and it definitely does) one would think the impact of seasonal meltflux across North America and Eurasia is actually even greater than that of Greenland.
One would think so, but as usual one would have to ignore the much bigger size of the North American continent (not to mention Eurasia), the various directions the meltwater can take due to the topography of the continental divides and of the surrounding seas, the sublimation, ground infiltration, and evaporation (and even damming and irrigation) that work to reduce the amount reaching the sea, the much higher temperatures of the meltwater, and probably other factors that diminish the effect of NA SWE, and make it not comparable to the Greenland figure which is a net figure of surface mass lost.
One could, if one desired so, to prove one's claims by analyzing river discharge into the various surrounding seas, and quantifying the effect. I hope one does so at some point.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6627
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1550
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: Floods
« Reply #427 on: October 04, 2019, 07:15:34 PM »
Thusly, if Greenland melt has an impact on oceanic currents (and it definitely does) one would think the impact of seasonal meltflux across North America and Eurasia is actually even greater than that of Greenland.
One would think so, but as usual one would have to ignore the much bigger size of the North American continent (not to mention Eurasia), the various directions the meltwater can take due to the topography of the continental divides and of the surrounding seas, the sublimation, ground infiltration, and evaporation (and even damming and irrigation) that work to reduce the amount reaching the sea, the much higher temperatures of the meltwater, and probably other factors that diminish the effect of NA SWE, and make it not comparable to the Greenland figure which is a net figure of surface mass lost.
One could, if one desired so, to prove one's claims by analyzing river discharge into the various surrounding seas, and quantifying the effect. I hope one does so at some point.
Here we go again.
Went through all this a few months ago.
NORTH AMERICA
The conclusion was that not so much run-off goes directly into the Atlantic ocean at high latitudes. Here are the maps.
RUSSIA There might be more snow melting into the Arctic , but the Northern (Russian) Sea Route is opening up earlier and for longer.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2019, 07:20:44 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6627
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1550
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: Floods
« Reply #428 on: October 04, 2019, 07:50:08 PM »
Meanwhile, in the US of A, the people might be suffering from floods - but the banks from duff mortgages? No, the Law gives them not so much of a loophole, more of a wide open barn door.

And oh yes, when it all goes wrong the taxpayer is on the hook.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/climate-change-could-impact-your-mortgage-even-if-you-live-nowhere-near-a-coast-2019-09-30
Banks increasingly unload flooded-out mortgages at taxpayer expense
Quote
Some banks are cutting their own climate-change exposure by selling riskier disaster-area mortgages to taxpayer-supported entities.

That puts the health of the mortgage market at risk, a potential repeat of the financial conditions at the root of the banking crisis a decade ago, a research paper published Monday argues.

The number and total value of flood insurance policies has been declining since 2006, meaning that households that purchased a property in coastal areas especially may be at increased risk of defaulting on their mortgages, the academic paper said. Commercial banks, including two of the largest U.S. mortgage lenders, JPMorgan Chase JPM, +1.19% and Wells Fargo WFC, +0.79%  , have the ability to price mortgages for flood risk, and by design they can securitize some of these loans, thereby spreading the risk to more parties.

But one of the more active ways banks unload climate-change and flooding risk is by reselling mortgage loans to Fannie Mae FNMA, +0.59% and Freddie Mac FMCC, +0.47% , which desire the liquidity, the paper says. These entities are the mortgage guarantors that are under tax-supported government control, though have been tagged by the Trump administration for a shift to the private sector. By rule, primarily because their mission is to expand homeownership, Fannie and Freddie cannot factor disaster-related risk, for instance living in a flood zone, into their mortgage pricing in the way that the commercial banks originating these loans can.

Absent change, the mispricing is only going to be aggravated, the paper notes, with $60 billion to $100 billion in new mortgages issued for coastal homes each year.

That harkens back to the start of the subprime lending crisis of 2008. On the plus side, the number of climate-change-linked mortgages is believed to be smaller than the pool of risky subprime mortgages that tainted the system 10 years ago. On the other hand, damaged properties could be lost forever to flooding, wind and storm surges, meaning there’s no underlying physical asset behind these compromised mortgages.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15724
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 469
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Floods
« Reply #429 on: October 06, 2019, 02:37:48 PM »
Record Flood Events on Southeast U.S. Coast — including on sunny days
Quote
Take Charleston, South Carolina, for example. On Friday, the National Weather Service office there announced that the Charleston Harbor tide gauge has observed 58 coastal flood events so far in 2019. This surpasses the previous record of 57 set back in 2015. Keep in mind that the number for 2019 may go up even more since it is only October.

More importantly, look at how sea-level rise has increased incidences of flooding just the past few decades:

• 1980s -- 9.3 events per year
• 1990s -- 18.8 events per year
• 2000s -- 21.4 events per year
• 2010s -- 39.1 events per year
...

Another factor for southeastern Florida is that the Gulf Stream slows down at the end of summer. It initiates in warm, tropical waters off of Florida. But when it slows down along Southeastern Florida, it backs up and creates a bulge of water along the coast.

This year, there have been problems along this same coastline due to strong Northeasterly winds, which are common in March, not September and October. On the surface, this may seem great because a Northeast wind provides a cooling sea breeze in Fort Lauderdale and Miami, plus relief from the summer heat. The problem is that the wind also pushes ocean water onshore, triggering coastal flooding, even though it is not raining. ...
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/10/05/weather/charleston-flooding/index.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15724
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 469
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Floods
« Reply #430 on: October 13, 2019, 04:15:10 PM »
U.S. East coast
Seasonal tides + Tropical Storm Melissa =

Tidal flooding submerges roads in areas along Potomac River, Chesapeake Bay
https://wtop.com/weather-news/2019/10/tidal-flooding-closes-roads-in-areas-along-potomac-river-chesapeake-bay/

Lots of photos in this thread:
Capital Weather Gang on Twitter: "Anyone awake and have a photo of coastal flooding in DC, Old Town, or Annapolis we could use for a story with a credit to you? thanks for considering..."
https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1183235158398386177
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1659
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 659
  • Likes Given: 114
Re: Floods
« Reply #431 on: October 25, 2019, 05:00:10 PM »
Climate Change Affecting the Way Europe Floods
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-climate-affecting-europe-experts.html

New analysis of five decades of European flood and temperature data, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, demonstrates for the first time an increasing overlap between the onset of spring and the highest points of seasonal flooding, which could pose new problems for biodiversity and food security in floodplains.

They found the thermal growing season—defined as periods where the temperature rose consistently above 5°C, encouraging plants and trees to begin to grow—has been consistently starting earlier in the year, bringing it closer to the periods where the highest river floods occur, which have begun to happen later in the year in Central and Eastern Europe.

... "Now that floods are happening more regularly during growing season, their waters are encountering a lot more vegetation like seedlings and larger trees and carrying them downstream. That not only strips away potential food sources for local wildlife, it also causes more of what we call 'hydraulic roughness' which affects how the flood moves. It could make the flood move more slowly so that it affects areas of land which weren't flooded in previous years, with knock-on effects on farming, for example, or in property damage within the floodplain.

Thorsten Balke et al. Increasing Synchrony of Annual River‐Flood Peaks and Growing Season in Europe, Geophysical Research Letters (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 887
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 255
  • Likes Given: 217
Re: Floods
« Reply #432 on: November 08, 2019, 12:12:36 PM »
The river Don floods again . Looks like the 2nd 1 in 500 year flood in 14 years is happening ATM . Flash flooding in Doncaster , Sheffield etc. may be followed by major floods downstream when the run off reaches Hull , where 10's of thousands of houses were flooded last time . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15724
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 469
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Floods
« Reply #433 on: November 13, 2019, 03:01:27 PM »
Venice floods: Climate change behind highest tide in 50 years, says mayor
Quote
St Mark's Basilica was flooded for the sixth time in 1,200 years, according to church records. Mr Brugnaro said the famous landmark had suffered "grave damage". The crypt was completely flooded and there are fears of structural damage to the basilica's columns.

Pierpaolo Campostrini, a member of St Mark's council, said four of those floods had now occurred within the past 20 years.

Images showed popular tourist sites left completely flooded and people wading through the streets as Venice was hit by a storm.
...
One French couple told AFP news agency that they had "effectively swum" after some of the wooden platforms placed around the city in areas prone to flooding overturned.
...
The waters in Venice peaked at 1.87m (6ft), according to the tide monitoring centre. Only once since official records began in 1923 has the tide been higher, reaching 1.94m in 1966.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50401308
Photo below; many others at the link.

Edit: more here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,428.msg236570.html#msg236570
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15724
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 469
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Floods
« Reply #434 on: November 19, 2019, 08:58:34 PM »
U.S., Louisiana.
Quote
Dr. Anjali Fernandes (@climbing_ripple) 11/19/19, 1:49 PM
This weekend, my @DenisonU students and I will be joining @variolax @RobertCMahon and @traviseswanson and their students to dig in the (awesome!) dirt in Bonnet Carre Spillway! Can't wait! This photograph by @SwirlingSands was what got the ball rolling.
https://twitter.com/climbing_ripple/status/1196863099027902464
- Why are we digging in the dirt, you say? Well, I'm glad you asked! The 2019 Mississippi River Flood was the longest on record. It deposited oodles of sediment in the Bonnet Carre Spillway. Photo credits @crabioscar and Wayne Wagner, who did some reconn for us.
- This sediment contains a sedimentary archive of the 2019 flood, while the spillway was open. With our ~20 undergraduate students, we intend to map, analyse and archive the sedimentary record of this historic flood.
- We are the Bonnet Carre Trenching Party 2019 #BonnetCarre2019
Photos below; more at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5335
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 469
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Floods
« Reply #435 on: November 20, 2019, 12:28:17 PM »
One man's disaster is another's archaeological trove. We had a flash flood in Nevada in the '70's that blew an entire community across the Colorado River and into Arizona. The dune is still there containing the homes, cars, a restaurant and remains of the inhabitants.
Someday someone no doubt will want to dig it all up. Too damn ghoulish.
Terry

FrostKing70

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 116
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Floods
« Reply #436 on: November 21, 2019, 04:31:11 PM »
I wasn't aware until today that there is a 18.6 lunar tidal cycle.   The first article on Weather Underground mentioned it, and then I found the Nature article through Google search.  The article found a link between the 18.6 year lunar tidal cycle and El Nino:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-33526-4

"Abstract
Even though El-Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a tremendous impact on global climate and society, its long-term forecast remains difficult. In this study, we discovered a statistically significant relationship between ENSO timing and the 18.6-year period lunar tidal cycle in the mature-phase (December–February) ENSO time-series during 1867–2015 and extending back to 1706 with proxy data. It was found that El-Niño tended to occur in the 1st, 10th, and 13th years after the maximum diurnal tide in the 18.6-yr cycle, and La-Niña tended to occur in the 3rd, 12th, and 16th years. These tendencies were also confirmed by corresponding sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-level pressure (SLP) distributions; particularly Pacific SST and SLP spatial patterns in the third La-Niña and the tenth El-Niño year well resemble those of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These findings contribute to understanding and forecasting long-term ENSO variability."

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5335
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 469
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Floods
« Reply #437 on: November 21, 2019, 11:35:18 PM »
^^
Do you know where we presently stand in relation to the 18.6 yr. cycle this is based on? I unfortunately couldn't follow your 1st link, and if the 2nd contains the information it is well hidden amid vast haystack of figures and unrelated information.
Or so it appeared to me. ???


Thanks
Terry

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1576
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 349
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: Floods
« Reply #438 on: November 21, 2019, 11:55:29 PM »
I think the peak tides were 2015 IIRC.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5335
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 469
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Floods
« Reply #439 on: Today at 12:51:40 AM »
I think the peak tides were 2015 IIRC.
Thanks, but I'm not sure that peak tides are what's called for. It could well be so, but the 2nd link made it sound far more complicated. ie

The 0 year was set at the maximum (minimum) diurnal (semi-diurnal) tide.

What on earth (or in lunar orbit) does this mean?
Terry


kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 784
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 296
  • Likes Given: 343
Re: Floods
« Reply #440 on: Today at 02:38:22 PM »
It is hard to predict El Nino/La Nina a long way out in time so they studied if mapping on the lunar cycles works.

They work from the max tide for EN (and reverse for LN).

Quote
With the culmination of the 18.6-year cycle of the Moon in 2006 and again in 2024-25, also called the Major Lunar Standstill, we are afforded the unique opportunity to observe the monthly, annual, and 18.6-year wanderings of the Moon.

https://www.umass.edu/sunwheel/pages/moonteaching.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_standstill

It was found that El-Niño tended to occur in the 1st, 10th, and 13th years after the maximum diurnal tide in the 18.6-yr cycle

so 2006 + 13 years is 2019 but the max tide is not on january 1st so there is some overlap with 2020. Another group predict a 2020 EN based on a completely different method (annoyingly i can´t find the link but quite sure it´s somewhere on the ASIF).

So we only have to wait a year for our first datapoint.  8)

 
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.