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miki

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Re: Floods
« Reply #500 on: August 14, 2020, 02:53:10 AM »
"Received devastating messages from Aden #Yemen of floods drowning the city. At least 173 dead including 19 Children."

https://twitter.com/LicypriyaK/status/1293998025518415872

kassy

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Re: Floods
« Reply #501 on: September 05, 2020, 09:02:52 PM »
Sudan declares 3-month state of emergency over deadly floods

Floods have killed 99 people and caused total and partial collapse of more than 100,000 homes, says local media.

...

The rates of floods and rain for this year exceeded the records set during the years 1946 and 1988, with expectations of continued rising indicators, minister Lena el-Sheikh added.

...

Sudan's rainy season begins in June and continues through to October, which means the country experiences floods and torrential rains annually.

The committee warned on Friday the country may face more rains, adding that the water level in the Blue Nile rose to a record 17.58 metres.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/sudan-declares-3-month-state-emergency-deadly-floods-200905093808859.html
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oren

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Re: Floods
« Reply #502 on: September 06, 2020, 12:43:29 AM »
Time to fill up the Ethiopian dam reservoir.

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Re: Floods
« Reply #503 on: September 17, 2020, 05:50:34 PM »
I think you live in north-west Florida Tor. There's flooding in Florida because of 'stalled' tropical storm Sally. Are you okay?
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: Floods
« Reply #504 on: September 21, 2020, 11:58:43 PM »
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/09/swells-from-hurricane-teddy-drive-major-king-tide-coastal-flooding/

Quote
Significant coastal flooding has been affecting much of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coast since September 15, during the high “king tide” period associated with the New Moon of September 17. The king tides have been exacerbated by big swells from Hurricane Teddy, high runoff from the heavy rains from Hurricane Sally the previous week, and powerful northeast winds associated with a strong area of high-pressure positioned over New England.

It seems a hurricane doesn't have to get anywhere near the Carolinas to flood their coast these days.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Floods
« Reply #505 on: September 22, 2020, 07:00:04 AM »
I think you live in north-west Florida Tor. There's flooding in Florida because of 'stalled' tropical storm Sally. Are you okay?
I live right above the 'armpit' of Florida, called the "Big Bend" when tourists are listening.  I had 125 mm (5") of rain in 36 hours plus several 10-20 mm days before and after, due to Sally.  No flooding in my neck of the woods, but our neighborhood dirt/gravel road did get a bit rutted.  (We've certainly see worse.)  My papaya tree fell down, though, top heavy with fruit and sodden soil.  Its leaves seem to be perfectly happy, but most of the fruit broke off - about half the roots are still in the ground.

Thanks for your concern.  Pensacola, which did get some rain, is about 325 km (200 miles) to my west.
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Yuha

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Re: Floods
« Reply #506 on: October 06, 2020, 07:02:48 PM »
Kenya: Red Flag as Swelling Rift Valley Lakes Wreak Havoc
28 September
https://allafrica.com/stories/202009290072.html

Quote
The lake waters are extending at a high speed, worrying residents and scientists, who seem not to have sufficient explanation as rains have not fallen in huge volumes over the past few months.

Lakes Nakuru, Naivasha, Baringo and Bogoria have expanded to levels not seen in 75 years, with the Water Resources Authority, (WRA) revealing that the phenomenon has affected the quality of water.

WRA attributes the rising water levels to tectonic activities and the effects of climate change on rainfall patterns. WRA says water levels in all the five lakes in the Rift Valley have risen to the highest recorded levels in recent years.

[...]

When the Nation visited the park on Sunday, KWS was racing against time to relocate animals among them zebras, rhinos, buffaloes, and gazelles, which are fighting for the limited space in the park.

Acacia trees that used to host baboons have been immersed in the waters, pushing the animals into neighbouring estates. Flamingos and pelicans that used to feed at the shores of the lake have fled.

The raging waters have also invaded KWS rangers' homes, forcing some to relocate to Nakuru town. In Lake Baringo, more than 15 schools bordering the lake may need to be relocated after water levels rose drastically, swallowing adjacent structures.


sidd

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Re: Floods
« Reply #507 on: November 17, 2020, 07:40:21 AM »
Havler-Barrett at the independent: Flood the poor, the rich got lawyers

"Water was discharged from the Peñitas dam following flooding caused by Hurricane Eta"

"President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Monday that he understood the decision would cause harm"

“They are Chontales [Indigenous Tabascans], the poorest, but we had to make a decision,”

"Meanwhile, Mexican social media has been alight with dramatic footage of a rescue of a dog"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/mexico-floods-homeless-hurricane-eta-b1723627.html

sidd

kassy

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Re: Floods
« Reply #508 on: November 17, 2020, 12:08:54 PM »
Water from Murray-Darling Basin plan not being delivered to wetlands, Australian-first report finds

The majority of environmental water redirected from irrigators under the $13 billion Murray-Darling Basin Plan isn't being delivered to its intended wetland targets, with private land blocking the connections between rivers and floodplains, new research shows.

The research, published today, found less than a quarter of the nearly 200,000 hectares of floodplains targeted with environmental water controlled by the Federal Government between 2014 and 2019 has actually delivered an effective flood, leaving crucial ecosystems heading towards collapse.

Jamie Pittock, an expert in water management from the Australian National University, said the study was the first to look at what the Basin Plan sought to achieve for the environment and measure its progress, in totality.

"And sadly, that progress is lacking," Professor Pittock said.

Overall, only 2 per cent of all the wetlands throughout the Murray-Darling Basin that could be inundated with environmental water controlled by the Federal Government were actually watered each year, he said.

"This is a $13 billion reform program, and we think that the Australian public would expect a better rate of return than 2 per cent per year," he told the ABC.

...

But the new research shows those intentional environmental floods are being stopped, mostly by towns and private farms.

Since agreements haven't been reached with about 3,300 farmers to allow the flooding to pass through private property, the environmental water isn't able to reach the wetlands.

...

Professor Pittock and his co-authors examined commonwealth environmental flows in the five years to 2019.

Without agreements with private landholders, the CEWO could sometimes only create very small floods that wouldn't risk running across private property.

As a result, Professor Pittock said each watering event ended up inundating only the low-lying parts of the floodplain. But since some types of ecosystems — like black box eucalyptus forests — live higher on floodplains, some ecosystems were almost never benefiting from the environmental water.

"It's really only the easy-to-water billabongs and low-lying redgum forests that are getting watered, whereas other kinds of wetland ecosystems are being disadvantaged, like black box floodplain forests," Professor Pittock said.

"The risk is that the disadvantaged ecosystems will be significantly lost unless these programmes are improved," he said.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-17/murray-darling-missing-water-in-floodplains/12887342

A bit of variation on the usual floods.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Floods
« Reply #509 on: November 28, 2020, 04:47:59 PM »
Sardinia - with perhaps more to come - quite a 2nd stunning video in the article

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55115241
Deadly flooding hits Sardinia after heavy rains

https://twitter.com/i/status/1332662009054289920
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sidd

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Re: Floods
« Reply #510 on: December 01, 2020, 01:28:04 AM »
Colman at politico: mispriced mortgages

"Taxpayers are backing more than a trillion dollars in home mortgages, but the agencies buying them are neglecting to consider climate risks."

“It just has not reached that level of concern. And it never does, right?”

"political, scientific, technical and social complexities that have left the taxpayer-backed mortgage market suspended in time, unwilling or unable to prepare for the inevitability of property- and wealth-destroying climate change."

"Officials at the FHFA, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, maintain that taxpayers are protected by flood insurance requirements."

"Turning off the mortgage spigot in communities affected by climate change would disproportionately affect people of color, whose neighborhoods are more likely to be plagued by violent weather."

"a peculiar kind of stasis — a crisis that everyone sees coming but no one feels empowered to prevent, even as banks and investors grow far savvier about assessing climate risk."

"The mortgage giants appear to be taking fledgling steps ... issued a request for proposals to analyze climate exposure to homes that are outside the 100-year floodplain, and therefore do not require flood insurance coverage"

"some current and former federal housing officials who were interviewed by POLITICO said that they interpret the charters that formed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as preventing officials from deciding, on their own accord, to stop buying mortgages in areas at high climate risk ... Others who occupied the same positions said the exact opposite."

"any actions taken by the two mortgage giants would be highly disruptive in themselves: A refusal to buy mortgages on homes in certain areas would potentially choke off lending in those areas, driving down housing prices ... But failing to take preventative action in anticipation of climate changes risks a far greater downturn."

"Weighing those climate-fueled dynamics would take Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into the political minefield of place-based pricing. The companies’ charters discourage such distinctions in order to create a national mortgage market. Maintaining a largely homogeneous market helps to combat redlining policies that have deprived predominantly Black neighborhoods of access to credit, while also ensuring that rural communities have the same access to credit as urban areas that have far more lenders. "

"In the early 1990s, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tried to raise the price of mortgages on properties in California neighborhoods with a high risk of earthquake damage, only to backtrack in the face of furious opposition"

" Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac already maintain some forms of risk-based pricing. The lenders charge banks higher rates — known as “guarantee fees” — when a borrower’s credit history signals a greater default risk."

"Making those decisions would put the mortgage giants in a position to write off whole communities ... many Black communities are situated in low-lying areas as a result of racist historical policies. "

“That we are rapidly growing places that are just right there in the bull's-eye of climate change just doesn’t make any sense.”

"The mortgage giants have already made an implicit decision to distort the market by not pricing climate risk ... They extend more financing to climate-vulnerable borrowers than the properties are worth. Thus they put taxpayer dollars and American lives in the crosshairs of extreme weather and storms. "

"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have no designated financial buffer for offsetting climate-related losses"

"This sets up the possibility that banks would deliberately sell off mortgages in areas with climate risks to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — which can’t refuse them, given the mandate to provide market liquidity — while keeping the sturdier loans on their own books."

"Banks such as Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Bank of America acknowledged in response to questions from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) that they are using new tools and services to gauge climate risk"

" if the bank ever becomes convinced of the inevitability of climate change in certain places, it could simply flip any loans in those places to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which would be obligated to buy them. That means taxpayers would be guaranteeing the risk rather than private lenders."

“We don’t do that today … but that is certainly something I have contemplated.”

“Until those loans that are in zip codes that have flood risk trade at a discount to other loans, [Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac] won’t care ... But since there’s a guarantee to credit risk, [investors] don’t care.”

"The fear is that, if the properties are destroyed, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would indeed pay off the mortgages immediately. But that would deprive investors of the benefits of interest over the longer term."

"these assets have been priced irresponsibly"

"As Hurricane Harvey barreled down on Texas in 2017, securities that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sell to private investors in what’s known as a “credit risk transfer” went haywire, spiking 150 basis points — or 1.5 percent — amid fears that the storm would obliterate entire communities. When the credit risk transfer market settled after Harvey, the Association of Mortgage Investors, a trade group representing mortgage securities buyers, asked Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to remove mortgages vulnerable to climate change from those offerings."

" unlike with most of the mortgage-backed securities that the mortgage giants sell, private buyers take the loss on credit risk transfers if mortgages default. The idea is to relieve taxpayers of the risk of having to cover for potential losses, putting it on private investors instead. But that solution can only work for so long, especially given the pressure investors have put on the mortgage giants to remove loans on properties at risk of climate change from those offerings"

"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac took the loans out of the credit risk transfer pool, he said, letting climate-vulnerable mortgages pile up on their own books."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/30/climate-change-mortgage-housing-environment-433721

sidd



Sebastian Jones

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Re: Floods
« Reply #511 on: December 03, 2020, 08:24:25 PM »
Haines is a small town in the South East of Alaska and is accustomed to receiving storms coming in off the N. Pacific. The area's infrastructure is designed with massive precipitation events in mind.
But, close to a foot of rain in a day has overwhelmed the place's capability.
Roads have collapsed, homes flooded or swept out to sea by a landslide.
People are still missing.
https://www.alaskapublic.org/2020/12/02/as-record-rains-drown-southeast-damage-appears-worst-in-haines/

sidd

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Re: Floods
« Reply #512 on: December 04, 2020, 02:04:33 AM »
Floods impact affordable housing: Buchanan et all at Environmental Research Letters

doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb266

open access, read all about it.

Bloomberg article at

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-01/how-climate-change-is-targeting-affordable-housing

sidd

Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #513 on: December 09, 2020, 03:37:11 AM »
Mitigation fail.
Venice floods as weather catches city off-guard
Quote
Much of Venice was left under-water on Tuesday, as unexpectedly severe weather caused flooding in the city.

A new system of 78 flood gates, known as Mose, guard the entrance to the Venetian lagoon and were designed to protect the city from tides of up to 3 metres (10 ft), however, they require 48-hours notice to be activated.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-55239719
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El Cid

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Re: Floods
« Reply #514 on: December 09, 2020, 08:37:15 AM »
We were warned about this Mediterranean cyclon days ahead, so I don't know why the Venetians did nothing. Not that this was unexpected, or anything...

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Re: Floods
« Reply #515 on: December 11, 2020, 02:43:17 AM »
We were warned about this Mediterranean cyclon days ahead, so I don't know why the Venetians did nothing. Not that this was unexpected, or anything...
I read the forecast was just below where it would be needed so they didn't activate the system. A promise to review guidelines was given.

kassy

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Re: Floods
« Reply #516 on: December 11, 2020, 01:35:44 PM »
They predicted 125 CM of rise but they got 138 CM. So the weather prediction was not accurate enough. I wonder how much margin they use though. 
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Re: Floods
« Reply #517 on: December 11, 2020, 07:16:59 PM »
They predicted 125 CM of rise but they got 138 CM. So the weather prediction was not accurate enough. I wonder how much margin they use though. 
I dont know but given it take 24 hours to deploy I bet it is a major disruption to waterway traffic. Given all but foot traffic is waterway traffic I imagine people complain almost as much when it is deployed and not needed as when it is not deployed and needed.

sidd

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Re: Floods
« Reply #518 on: February 24, 2021, 01:49:55 AM »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Floods
« Reply #519 on: February 24, 2021, 04:02:01 PM »
In a blog post putting 500,000 American Covid-19 deaths into a population-influenced perspective, E-V.com posted a pair of charts that include the 1931 Chinese floods.

These 1931 floods rank 9th worst of 'compared events' when considering 'per year' deaths of the various events. (The American Covid-19 experience ranks 17.  The Armenian genocide, the 14th century bubonic plague in Europe and the Spanish conquest of the Incas rank 1, 2 and 3.)
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kassy

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Re: Floods
« Reply #520 on: February 24, 2021, 06:16:07 PM »
Why floods and not covid? 1931 is not very recent.
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longwalks1

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Re: Floods
« Reply #521 on: February 26, 2021, 03:29:15 AM »
Let us not forget the USAF bombing of the dikes in North Korea, possibly over 1.5 million civilians drowned.   It was mentioned in MacKinlay Kantor's (Andersonville Pulitzer prize) ghosted autobiography of Gen. LeMay. 

sidd

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Re: Floods
« Reply #522 on: February 26, 2021, 06:29:25 AM »
Yes, the north korean massacre is unknown in US media.But better discussed elsewhere.

sidd

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Floods
« Reply #523 on: February 26, 2021, 08:57:11 PM »
Not only are these war-caused floods not know in the US, Wikipedia appears to be nearly silent on the matter.  For example, the words "dike," "flood" and "drown" don't appear in the Korean War article.  There is reference to the bombing of dams in May 1953, but it refers to potential starvation consequences (which were mitigated by international aid), not drowning.  With estimates of 1.5 to 3 million civilian (1.5 m military) casualties during that war, if a million people drowned, somebody should update the Wikipedia article with references.

In Wikipedia's Bombing of North Korea article, "flood" is referenced associated with bombing of dams, with thousands of acres of rice fields flooded and 43 km of a river valley "scooped clean".  Although people undoubtedly drowned, Wikipedia is mum on drowning deaths.

In Wikipedia's List of natural disasters by highest estimated death toll excluding epidemics and famines, the 1931 Chinese floods lead the list.  An 1887 flood in China comes second.
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Re: Floods
« Reply #524 on: February 27, 2021, 03:43:27 AM »
An act of war is not a natural disaster.
If bombing of the dam does not appear in wiki article add it. Even just mentioning it may encourage someone else to fill in the details.

Niall Dollard

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Re: Floods
« Reply #525 on: March 11, 2021, 07:58:25 PM »
From the UK Met Office:

Record-breaking rain more likely due to climate change

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/record-breaking-rainfall-more-likely-due-to-climate-change

Lead author of the paper Dr Nikos Christidis, Senior Climate Scientist in the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: “Our study shows that in a medium emissions scenario these sorts of rainfall extremes could become much more frequent, reinforcing the need to plan for the consequences of a warming global climate. We are also now starting to see how more frequent extreme rainfall events are already impacting the UK, showing that human induced climate change is already having an impact on the weather we experience in the UK.”

vox_mundi

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Re: Floods
« Reply #526 on: March 16, 2021, 10:08:00 PM »
Officials: Dam in Oregon Could Fail During Large Earthquake
https://phys.org/news/2021-03-oregon-large-earthquake.html

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has determined that a large earthquake—which is expected to occur again in the Pacific Northwest sooner or later—could cause the spillway gates of a dam in Oregon to buckle, resulting "in a potentially catastrophic flood.

The Corps announced late Monday it will try to minimize the danger by reducing the maximum height of the lake by five feet starting in April. Hundreds of thousands of people, including those in the state capital, live downstream from the Detroit Dam, whose construction in the 1950s created the narrow, nine-mile long Detroit Lake.

The move comes as Oregon and the wider Pacific Northwest are coming to grips with "the big one" that experts say is coming. Earthquakes in the Cascadia subduction zone, which extends from the ocean off Northern California to Canada's Vancouver Island, have an average magnitude of around 9, making them among the world's biggest.

A quake in that zone has a 37% probability of happening off Oregon's coast in the next 50 years, according to Chris Goldfinger, an Oregon State University professor and earthquake geologist.

... In 2020, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers completed a seismic hazard analysis for Detroit Dam, and found the risk to be higher than Corps officials previously thought.

"Structural analysis has shown a possibility of the spillway gates buckling under the force of a full reservoir during a large earthquake," the Corps said in its statement. "Risk is high enough to warrant immediate actions."

A breach would send a surge of water shooting down the Santiam Canyon, which was devastated by a wildfire last summer, and onto where it opens up on the eastern edge of the Willamette Valley.

"Because Detroit Dam is located upstream of many communities including the state capital of Salem, Oregon, there is potential for devastating flooding to affect large portions of the narrow North Santiam River canyon and urban areas," the Corps said in its draft environmental assessment.

Report: https://usace.contentdm.oclc.org/utils/getfile/collection/p16021coll7/id/17539
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Rodius

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Re: Floods
« Reply #527 on: March 22, 2021, 11:45:39 PM »
Newe South Wales, Australia

There is currently a huge weather event happening in NSW that is causing large scale flooding in Sydney.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-23/nsw-floods-24-hours-are-critical-flood-crisis-continues/100021970

And an interesting article about the flooding that I just had to share.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/22/horrific-swarms-of-spiders-flee-into-homes-and-up-legs-to-escape-nsw-floods

The same regions of Sydney that were hit by fires last year are getting the flooding.
The Govt is saying it is just a series of bad luck.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #528 on: March 23, 2021, 02:26:55 AM »
More:

Australia to rescue thousands as Sydney faces worst floods in 60 years
Quote
PITT TOWN, Australia (Reuters) - Australia was set on Monday to evacuate thousands more people from suburbs in Sydney’s west, battered by the worst flooding in 60 years, with torrential rains expected to continue for another day or two.

Reuters images showed submerged intersections, marooned livestock and cars up to their windshields in water, out of which poked the tops of street signs, as three days of rain swelled rivers in the most populous state of New South Wales (NSW).
...
Sunday was Sydney’s wettest day of the year, with almost 111 mm (4.4 inches) of rain, while nearly 900 mm (35 inches) was dumped in some north coast regions in the last six days, or more than three times the March average, government data showed.
...
Authorities said about 18,000 people have been evacuated from low-lying areas. ... 
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-weather-idUSKBN2BE011
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #529 on: March 29, 2021, 09:46:31 PM »
Tennessee, U.S.
Nashville flooding: Four killed as homes and roads flood during severe weather in Tennessee
Quote
The Nashville airport recorded at least 7 inches [178mm] of rain since Saturday -- making the two-day rainfall total the second-largest on record, trailing only 13.5 inches of rain that fell from May 1 to 2, 2010. More than 5 inches of rain fell between 10 p.m. local time Saturday and 5 a.m. Sunday, the NWS said.
...
There were also reports of possible tornado damage in the wake of the storm system. ...
https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/28/weather/severe-weather-south-floods-sunday/index.html
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sidd

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Re: Floods
« Reply #530 on: May 10, 2021, 07:33:57 AM »
Tick, tick, tick: Gill at anderson review, ucla

" concerns about unflagged flood risks squirreled away in mortgage-backed securities, bond markets and other real estate-backed investments. Common themes: The exact size of exposure is elusive but big; markets don’t currently price for it; these assets pose a threat to the stability of the global financial system. "

"selling the exposed loans to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae faster than their other mortgages. The transactions move the risk of default to Fannie and Freddie, which are ultimately backed by taxpayers."

"homebuyers start losing interest when regular tides flood cars five, six, seven times a year. That could occur decades before what’s known as chronic inundation, defined as tidal flooding covering at least 10% of the community 26 times a year or more."

"FEMA designations incorrectly peg millions of properties as having little risk of flooding, according to most experts. By the agency’s own accounts, some 40% of flood insurance claims between 2017 and 2020 were on properties its maps deemed low risk."

"Coverage limits imposed by NFIP — $250,000 for the structure and $100,000 for personal property — mean many coastal homes that have coverage are grossly underinsured."

"Marcus Painter looked at costs of issuing bonds for counties whose expected annual loss from sea level rise is at least 1% of its GDP. He finds these counties pay more in underwriting fees and initial yields to issue long-term bonds"

https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/is-the-1-trillion-coastal-housing-market-a-future-financial-crisis/

sidd

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Re: Floods
« Reply #531 on: May 10, 2021, 10:00:29 PM »
The Mackenzie River in the Northwest Territories  is wreaking some havoc right now:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/fort-simpson-flooding-evacuation-1.6020407

700 people in Fort Simpson, N.W.T., displaced by flood, mayor says

Quote
An estimated 700 people have been displaced from their homes in Fort Simpson, N.W.T., the mayor said Monday morning, after the community of about 1,200 was flooded during seasonal ice breakup over the weekend.

"There's basically people all over the place," Mayor Sean Whelly told CBC Radio's The Trailbreaker.

"They're down the highway, some of them with motorhomes, camps — setting up a bush camp, and things like that."

"I've never, ever seen the water in my life this high or the ice. It's really undescribable,"


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Re: Floods
« Reply #532 on: May 11, 2021, 05:36:34 AM »
Tick, tick, tick: Gill at anderson review, ucla

" concerns about unflagged flood risks squirreled away in mortgage-backed securities, bond markets and other real estate-backed investments. Common themes: The exact size of exposure is elusive but big; markets don’t currently price for it; these assets pose a threat to the stability of the global financial system. "

"selling the exposed loans to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae faster than their other mortgages. The transactions move the risk of default to Fannie and Freddie, which are ultimately backed by taxpayers."

"homebuyers start losing interest when regular tides flood cars five, six, seven times a year. That could occur decades before what’s known as chronic inundation, defined as tidal flooding covering at least 10% of the community 26 times a year or more."

"FEMA designations incorrectly peg millions of properties as having little risk of flooding, according to most experts. By the agency’s own accounts, some 40% of flood insurance claims between 2017 and 2020 were on properties its maps deemed low risk."

"Coverage limits imposed by NFIP — $250,000 for the structure and $100,000 for personal property — mean many coastal homes that have coverage are grossly underinsured."

"Marcus Painter looked at costs of issuing bonds for counties whose expected annual loss from sea level rise is at least 1% of its GDP. He finds these counties pay more in underwriting fees and initial yields to issue long-term bonds"

https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/is-the-1-trillion-coastal-housing-market-a-future-financial-crisis/

sidd

Floods are devastating to homeowners. Once is enough for many homeowners. Twice in less than a decade is enough for most. Buyers aka suckers may not realize how devastating floods are. At multiple floods a year even suckers realize their is a problem.

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Re: Floods
« Reply #533 on: May 15, 2021, 10:40:51 AM »
The Mackenzie River in the Northwest Territories  is wreaking some havoc right now:

More from Fort Simpson:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/fort-simpson-flood-may-14-1.6027111



Quote
Water levels in Fort Simpson, N.W.T., are rising to new extremes.

Local resident Brandon Buggins told CBC on Friday that the water levels are the highest they have been this season, rising above 16 meters.

Last Friday, the Liard River broke, triggering a local state of emergency, and eventually, mandatory evacuation for those who live on the island, which rests on low ground. Mandatory evacuation was triggered at 14 meters.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #534 on: July 13, 2021, 01:45:42 AM »
Croydon, Pennsylvania (near Philadelphia) seeing a 1 in 100 to 200 year flood event right now.
Not associated with any tropical or major storm system.
Quote
IEMBot PHI
At 6:35 PM EDT, 1 N Croydon [Bucks Co, PA] PUBLIC reports HEAVY RAIN of 10.28 INCH [260 mm]. PERSONAL WEATHER STATION KPACROYD5, AN AMBIENT WEATHER SENSOR. …
7/12/21, 6:37 PM. https://twitter.com/iembot_phi/status/1414715516233474050
 
Photo of flooded street: https://twitter.com/larksleepy/status/1414713319047405568

Water rescues beginning in Bensalem PA…. This is at the Lafayette Gardens condominium….
7/12/21, 7:40 PM. ➡️ https://twitter.com/stormchaserray/status/1414731351757139973
30 sec video at the link. Airboat and rescue boats on the street.
Quote
Just an absolutely surreal situation going on down here right now the smell of gas is overwhelming and officials are doing water rescues as we speak in the Lafayette gardens condominium
7/12/21, 7:17 PM. https://twitter.com/stormchaserray/status/1414725637546328064

⬇️ Graphic below from:
7/12/21, 6:13 PM. https://twitter.com/itscigazze/status/1414709634192052226
« Last Edit: July 13, 2021, 01:53:15 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #535 on: July 13, 2021, 09:33:04 PM »
More on the storm near Philadelphia yesterday.
The weather service deployed new storm warning language Monday. It may have saved lives in Bucks County.
Quote
Dean Iovino, a meteorologist with the NWS in Mount Holly, New Jersey, said the agency expanded a flash flood watch to cover the Bensalem area around 11 a.m. and issued a flash flood warning at 2:12 p.m., but things grew more dire as the heavy rain continued to pummel the region.

“This was one of the rare occasions where we upgraded to a flash flood emergency and that took place at 5:14 p.m.,” Iovino said.

The warning language of old was kicked up a notch by the weather service this month, taking standard warnings such as “flash flood” and turning up the volume. “Destructive” tags and similar language are now being added on the potentially most damaging storms. They’re coded to automatically activate a wireless emergency alert (WEA), causing a cellphone to vibrate or generate an ear-piercing noise. It’s the same system utilized for Amber Alerts or other critical situations.

Forecasters will also add a “considerable” damage label in alerts that won’t rattle your phone or set off alarms, NWS staff told the Philadelphia Inquirer recently. They’ll be a step above normal warning categories, and have descriptions of expected wind speed or the size of hail in an approaching storm.
The WEA alerts are geographically targeted and will hit your phone based on where you are during severe weather, not where you live.

“What I’ve seen from comments and everything on Twitter and other social media, the new alerts really get your attention. You hear ‘flash flood warning’ or ‘severe thunderstorm warning all the time. The kind of emphasis they used on Monday and calling this a ‘flash flood emergency’ gets people talking. You don’t see that all the time. It’s language that the public can understand.”

The wireless emergency alerts system is a big part of America’s emergency preparedness. Since its launch in 2012, the WEA system has been used thousands of times to warn the public about dangerous weather, missing children, and other emergency situations through alerts on wireless/mobile devices. …
https://www.mcall.com/news/weather/mc-nws-historic-flooding-new-storm-warning-language-20210713-3wy4yjfr5zhorht6xvt4mw3lye-story.html
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Re: Floods
« Reply #536 on: July 15, 2021, 01:15:13 PM »
And in the West of Germany....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/14/firefighter-drowns-and-army-deployed-amid-severe-flooding-in-germany
At least 21 dead in ‘catastrophic’ flooding in western Germany

Many more missing as buildings give way amid heavy rain and flooding


Quote
At least 21 people have died and dozens are missing or awaiting rescue from rooftops after heavy rain and floods caused buildings to collapse in the western German states of Rhineland-Palatinate and North-Rhine Westphalia.

In the Rhineland-Palatinate district of Schuld, set in the Eifel mountain range, police said on Thursday morning they were searching for about 70 missing people following the collapse of six houses. At least eight people are confirmed to have died, officials said.

“There are dead people, there are missing people, and many who are still in danger”, said Rhineland-Palatinate’s state premier Malu Dreyer. “We have never seen a catastrophe like this,” the Social Democrat politician added. “It is truly devastating.”

A spokesperson for the Koblenz police told Reuters that an “unclear number” of people needed to be rescued from roofs.

“There are many places where fire brigades and rescue workers have been deployed. We do not yet have a very precise picture because rescue measures are continuing,” the spokesperson added.

The full extent of the damage in the region was still unclear after many villages were cut off by floodwater and landslides that made roads impassable. Videos posted on social media showed cars floating down streets and houses partly collapsed in some places.

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In the neighbouring western state of North Rhine-Westphalia, at least 13 people have lost their lives in the floods, including two fire fighters who drowned during rescue missions.

In the cities of Cologne and Solingen, three people died in separate incidents after being trapped by the floods in their cellars. In Leverkusen, a hospital with 468 patients had to be evacuated overnight following a power failure, after the river Dhünn breached its banks.

With Germans voting in September to choose a successor to the chancellor, Angela Merkel, the extreme weather could heighten awareness of global heating, a topic with which the Greens, running second to Merkel’s conservatives, have so far failed to dominate the agenda.

On national broadcaster ZDF, news anchor Claus Kleber commented that low-pressure areas themselves were nothing new in the western parts of Germany. “But the fact that they are becoming more common has to do with the Arctic and the air above it getting warmer and weakening the jet stream,” Kleber said. “Therefore it has to do with climate change.
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Re: Floods
« Reply #537 on: July 15, 2021, 01:44:25 PM »
And in the West of Germany....

A live blog (in German) about the exceptional flooding in Germany, Netherlands and Belgium:
https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-hochwasser-101.html
It is weird, there are entire towns under water in parts of Hesse, just 30 km from where I live, while we ourselves hardly had any rain to speak of. There was no rain yesterday and we've had nothing but sunshine today. Some nearby regions experienced 2 months worth of rain over the past 48 hours.

Germany is used to recurrent floods along the major rivers Rhine and Elbe (sometimes catastrophic, but the people and communities along the rivers are prepared for those events). There are also local events related to severe weather every year. But I have never seen widespread flooding due to rain like what is going on right now.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2021, 01:57:58 PM by Renerpho »
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

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Re: Floods
« Reply #538 on: July 15, 2021, 02:22:52 PM »
And in the West of Germany....

A live blog (in German) about the exceptional flooding in Germany, Netherlands and Belgium:
https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-hochwasser-101.html
It is weird, there are entire towns under water in parts of Hesse, just 30 km from where I live, while we ourselves hardly had any rain to speak of. There was no rain yesterday and we've had nothing but sunshine today. Some nearby regions experienced 2 months worth of rain over the past 48 hours.

Germany is used to recurrent floods along the major rivers Rhine and Elbe (sometimes catastrophic, but the people and communities along the rivers are prepared for those events). There are also local events related to severe weather every year. But I have never seen widespread flooding due to rain like what is going on right now.
(my emph.)
Of course flooding is always due to rain (plus snowmelt)   8)
But this was quite an amazing time-space localized extreme rain.

I guess one can see the difference to standard Jahrhunderthochwasser here:
The Rhine at Cologne is predicted to rise "only" to 8m Saturday. 5m above normal. They are "used to" 10m.

-----
So we get some Klimawahlkampf. I cant help but welcome this event. (Except it gets worse and my girlfriend is stuck in Cologne  :-* ) It hit chancellor candidate Laschet at home. Maybe folks now want to stop open pit brown coal mining a bit earlier.
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Re: Floods
« Reply #539 on: July 15, 2021, 02:37:15 PM »
In Luxembourg (we are near the German/Belgian concerned area), we have a mix between flash floods and normal floods.
Flash floods happened yesterday and today we have normal floods. The reason is that flash floods have covered such a wide area that the bigger rivers couldn't handle the quantity of water.
We have been half lucky because the flash floods haven't been so hard, I could say in slow motion. The water went over most bridges of the minor rivers, but in most places not enough to really create damage. We probably had about 12 hours of strong rain instead of 30 minutes of extreme rain.

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Re: Floods
« Reply #540 on: July 15, 2021, 04:02:03 PM »
Many people in Germany are completely shocked about the heavy flooding in Germany (SE part on Monday, W part on Tuesday and W/SW part on Wednesday.
The little river Ahr in the Eifel mountains, usually 30-40 cm deep, broke the flood records in Bad Neuenahr by far. The latest historical high was some years ago (2006) with 3.71 m. On Tuesday night the flood height was measured with 5.80 m, after that the flood meter was washed away. Estimations go about 7 m which is almost twice as much as historically (and we talk about centuries of flood recording in Ahr valley!) ever measured.
Many places witnessed 80-140 mm of precipitation within one day in a very large region (200 * 400 km was touched by this heavy rain event).

I post some links from wetteronline.de which only show very few spots of that disaster.

https://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker/7f25e2c7-84a1-4160-a190-2fc167318efc
https://www.wetteronline.de/fotostrecken/2021-07-14-uw
https://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker
https://www.wetteronline.de/wetternews/2021-07-15-sk
https://www.wetteronline.de/fotostrecken/2021-07-13-ub

Another link with actual information:
https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/newsblog-zu-unwettern-in-deutschland-zahl-der-toten-steigt.2852.de.html?dram:article_id=500313

A conservative politician (Kretschmer, MP of Sachsen) said two days ago "We shouldn't do too much about fighting climate change because this can damage future investments and development".
The candidate from the conservative party said today "We must do something about climate change", but he didn't say anything about what to do. Before this flooding he always mentioned "to keep Germany as an industrial country because jobs in industry are so important"...

I hope that this disaster will push the Green party forward for the General elections in September.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2021, 04:31:36 PM by Stephan »
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Re: Floods
« Reply #541 on: July 15, 2021, 07:17:37 PM »
Luik (Belgium) is being evacuated right now. The river Maas is flooding the city. The last time that happened is 100 years ago. https://www.hln.be/dossier-noodweer/hoogste-alarmpeil-in-luik-maas-treedt-buiten-oevers-burgemeester-vraagt-inwoners-stad-te-verlaten-ongeziene-storingen-elektriciteits-en-gasnetwerk~a00ff10e/

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Re: Floods
« Reply #542 on: July 15, 2021, 07:18:57 PM »
There is a depression in Germany which makes all the rain fronts move slowly over that whole area.

Deaths up to 48 so far.

In a way it is good that these disasters hit the western world. Bye and large the general public does not care about the ice. Weird records or disasters in faraway places are also shrugged of. Having it hit closer to home of the historical and current big polluters might make a difference to the public opinion.
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Re: Floods
« Reply #543 on: July 15, 2021, 09:06:34 PM »


In a way it is good that these disasters hit the western world. Bye and large the general public does not care about the ice. Weird records or disasters in faraway places are also shrugged of. Having it hit closer to home of the historical and current big polluters might make a difference to the public opinion.

I agree with this. Americans need to wake up and getting smacked hard by weather disasters is a good way to do it. The downside is the western third of the U.S. is burning down.

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Re: Floods
« Reply #544 on: July 15, 2021, 09:22:28 PM »
I am still completely shocked.
I saw pictures of a village I used to live in for many years (Heimerzheim) where people had to be evacuated because the whole (lower lying) western part of the village was a gigantic lake. No harvest this year for many farmers. And uphill a reservoir (Steinbachtalsperre) still is in urgent danger of a dam break. Three villages (9.000 inhabitants) were evacuated downstream of this reservoir.

At least the rain has stopped and the water starts to retreat, leaving mud, dirt, parts of trees, cars, furniture and boulders behind...

58 confirmed deaths in Germany and further 70-100 people are still missed.
In addition our neighbours Belgium and Netherlands are also seriously affected (see e.g. posting about Liège upthread).
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Re: Floods
« Reply #545 on: July 15, 2021, 09:33:52 PM »
It is quite of the charts. We are going to beat record river height..oh wait we just did:
Quote
De waterstand van de Maas bereikt vandaag ongekende hoogte. Momenteel stroomt er bij Eijsden 3.168 kubieke meter per seconde door de Maas: de hoogste piekafvoer sinds het begin van de watermetingen. Dat is dus ruim 3,1 miljoen liter water per seconde.

De piekafvoer is ongeveer 50 procent hoger dan het laatste zomerrecord uit 1980. Dat record werd vanochtend al verbroken.

De situatie van vandaag is echter zo extreem dat zelfs het laatste winterrecord is gesneuveld. In 1993 werd een piekafvoer vastgesteld van 3.120 kubieke meter per seconde - de hoogste stand ooit gemeten, tot vandaag.

https://www.nu.nl/wateroverlast-limburg/6145589/maas-bereikt-hoogste-stand-ooit-gemeten.html

Maas river beat the record inflow. 50% over the last summer record and also the much higher winter record.
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Stephan

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Re: Floods
« Reply #546 on: July 15, 2021, 09:38:38 PM »
This is in line with a statement from a meteorologist a few hours ago: "Records were not broken by some per cent but by dozens of per cent. And this will not be the last flooding event in Central Europe. We have to start to get adjusted to that and to start mitigation processes."
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Stephan

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Re: Floods
« Reply #547 on: July 15, 2021, 09:52:34 PM »
At least the people at the Inde river in the SW part of Nordrhein-Westfalen don't have to fear from too severe flooding.
The river broke through a dam and flows into a gigantic open-pit coal mine, ca. 200 m lower in altitude. The mining activities have stopped. Unfortunately one worker is still missed. I hope he can be rescued.

See attached picture.
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Re: Floods
« Reply #548 on: July 15, 2021, 09:56:45 PM »
In Luxembourg, rain has been up to 105 liter per sqr meter yesterday, it would be a record.

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Re: Floods
« Reply #549 on: July 15, 2021, 10:16:11 PM »
Another video from a once beautiful pittoresque little town and tourist attraction Bad Münstereifel at the Erft river in Nordrhein-Westfalen, Eifel mountains.
https://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker/8166e168-ad97-4a60-8a2a-e296c611f0c6
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