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Author Topic: Warm Oceans Driving Weather Not Jetstream Related Cyclones - Non-Holocene Flow  (Read 1178 times)

timallard

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Thesis: That cold air is prevented from traveling in west-to-east Rossby style jetstream flow during winter by the warm oceans disrupting such and warming the air which turns north.

Observing wind and temperatures on earth.nullschool.net has shown below freezing air cannot exist long over the oceans and to reach low latitudes it can only move south over land, the continents and not over the sea.

Then, the warmer oceans have large-scale bound vortices, cyclones & anti-cyclones that work together in the North Pacific to move warm moist air northeast where it cools, dries then circulates south over land.

These prevent the Holocene jetstream from forming, no longer is there a procession of storms tied to a cold, dense jetstream that migrates eastward across North America in Rossby wave flow, that's disrupted.

Watching this winter in the Seattle area where cold northerlies dominated and temperatures stay below 50F/10C for weeks and this cold has persisted to create the expectation that it could continue and be the new normal for global atmospheric circulations.

So the thesis is that cold air cannot create Rossby wave flow due to the ocean heat disallowing transit at Holocene latitudes and cold only reaching low latitudes over land during winter and possibly all year; posting here for others to consider and comment.

Background: From about the last decade the jetstream took to looking like a goat's head at times and couldn't penetrate the west coast sending most flow back north over the blockage that my thinking was from it being warmer thus less dense to manage getting over the mountains with a persistent high-pressure over the midwest and central USA.

Today: The cold air from East Siberia, a northwesterly hits the Bering Sea and turns right back north aided by a persistent cyclone over the eastern Bering Sea that's quasi-stationary, fading & reappearing along with a bound cyclone in the Gulf of Alaska and typically an anti-cyclone off the Oregon-California latitudes.

These have one side over warm ocean the other cold land, significantly they can be defined as bound votexes by the heat-transfer of warm-moist air north and cold south exclusively over land what's being observed.

This implies weather is now being driven by the ocean heat, not polar cold circulating in a jetstream driving cyclonic storms tied to a Rossby wave progression west-to-east.

Tentative Conclusion:  Weather in the northern hemisphere is now being driven from the bottom of the atmosphere up, not a cold polar circulation forcing its way south using a high-density stream of air.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2017, 06:59:28 PM by timallard »
-tom

wili

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This seems the best thread to post this item:


Climate crisis may be increasing jet stream turbulence, study finds

Potential impacts of rise in vertical shear include longer, bumpier and dearer flights

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/aug/08/climate-crisis-may-be-increasing-jet-stream-turbulence-study-finds

Quote
The climate crisis could be making transatlantic flights more bumpy, according to research into the impact of global heating on the jet stream.

Jet streams are powerful currents of air at the altitudes which planes fly. . They result from the air temperature gradient between the poles and the tropics, and reach speeds of up to 250mph (400kmph). They also sometimes meander.

Researchers say previous studies of the speed and location of the fastest part of the north Atlantic jet stream have found only small changes over time, although there are signs it is slowly shifting northward. Experts say the lack of dramatic alterations is because climate change produces competing effects at different altitudes.

The latest study, however, took a different approach. “Just because the speed isn’t changing, doesn’t mean the jet stream isn’t changing in other ways,” said Prof Paul Williams of the University of Reading, the lead author of the research...


We are fundamentally altering a basic regulatory system on the planet, and the article seems to be most concerned that this may make things a bit more bumpy for the jet setters who are sending the rest of us into the inferno!
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."