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Author Topic: Conspirology?  (Read 3205 times)

lanevn

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Conspirology?
« on: April 05, 2013, 01:20:15 PM »
Ok, UN announce 17 years pause in AGW. Greenland-today did re-calibration and now show 0% melt with +10C in some regions. All sea-ice models show strong recovery from the begining of year to last year conditions, but we can observe that huge fragmentation event. Really, isn't this look strange?

ivica

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Re: Conspirology?
« Reply #1 on: April 05, 2013, 01:31:07 PM »
Ummh..., September is not far away, we'll know more by then.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Conspirology?
« Reply #2 on: April 05, 2013, 01:34:24 PM »
My own recent take on the "conspiracy" theory of AGW history versus the "cock-up" theory:

http://econnexus.org/the-economist-being-economical-with-the-truth-about-climate-change/
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Pettit

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Re: Conspirology?
« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2013, 02:48:25 PM »
Ok, UN announce 17 years pause in AGW. Greenland-today did re-calibration and now show 0% melt with +10C in some regions. All sea-ice models show strong recovery from the begining of year to last year conditions, but we can observe that huge fragmentation event. Really, isn't this look strange?

First, the UN "announced" no such thing; an article in the decidedly contrarian paper The Australian published an article by the decidedly contrarian (and frequently wrong) writer Graham Lloyd that misinterpreted something alleged to have been said by the UN's Dr. Rajendra Pauchari. (Great article and commentary here.) And even had Pauchari actually made such a statement--which he didn't--it would have been hugely inaccurate.

Second, that Greenland Today adjustment had to do with their melt extent algorithm overestimating melt extent in February and March. But it's important to note that that melt overestimation was due to abnormally warm surface and snow temperatures there. That, along with the fact that some 2012 meltwater was still unfrozen as late as mid-December, is good indication that we're likely in for yet another big melt in Greenland this year.

Third, I haven't seen any sea ice models that "show strong recovery". It's entirely possible that neither extent, area, nor volume will reach last summer's astounding lows, but a mild bounce upward after such an anomalously low year is hardly indicative of a recovery of any sort.

Finally, as ivica noted, let's wait until September...