The Russiagate conspiracy theory

[SteveMDFP]

Then, 40 minutes later he tweets this:

". . .Stop the arms race?"

A sensible, statesmanlike, and conciliatory message.

A patently false message.  Trump has been the biggest cheerleader for greatly expanded military spending, including modernizing and increasing the US nuclear arsenal.

His words and actions don't agree. 

Don't pay attention to what any "leader" says, pay attention to what they do.

[TerryM]

Don't pay attention to what any "leader" says, pay attention to what they do.

Fortunately they haven't been doing much more than saying nasty things to date.


They say that 3 people were attacked by "Military Grade Weapons", yet the hospital disagrees and all three are "miraculously" recovering.


They say Assad "gassed his own people" yet again, but none of the past accusations have stood the test of time, and Syria & Russia want the OPCW to investigate.


If use of chemical weapons is reason enough to bomb the perpetrators, what is the fitting punishment for those that make false claims of chemical weapon attacks?
Terry


Sanctions - I forgot about the sanctions that have been leveled on Russia. They must be counted as something that was done.
With the Skripals walking away from their non nerve agent "attack", and Syria inviting in OPCW inspectors - which they certainly wouldn't do if they were guilty, shouldn't the sanctions be lifted and some form of compensation be offered?

[SteveMDFP]

Don't pay attention to what any "leader" says, pay attention to what they do.

Fortunately they haven't been doing much more than saying nasty things to date.
 

The "statesman-like" tweet was about reversing the arms race.  My point was that Trump is doing the opposite:

Trump’s Defense Budget
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2018/02/28/447248/trumps-defense-budget/

"It will also bring the FY 2019 defense budget, in real terms, to a level not seen since FY 2010, when the United States still had more than 200,000 troops deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan and was spending $163 billion on the wars. These massive increases are for the most part unnecessary and counterproductive. Moreover, the Trump administration’s policy of significantly increasing defense spending while enacting massive tax cuts and reductions to other federal programs that contribute to national security will actually undermine this country’s security in the end. . ."

[TerryM]

Moreover, the Trump administration’s policy of significantly increasing defense spending while enacting massive tax cuts and reductions to other federal programs that contribute to national security will actually undermine this country’s security in the end. . ."

I'll start worrying about America's security when they're staging a landing in New Jersey or storming the ramparts in New Mexico.
Did you watch Thomas's video that showed that US Military spending was ~= to the rest of the world's Military spending?
Terry

[Neven]

Military spending is perhaps the single biggest problem the American people have, as it proves how tightly the military-industrial complex has a grip on the US. It's also one of the driving forces behind Russiagate.

I'd very much like to know how much Trump is in bed with those guys or not. Given this tweet and the fact that Mueller still hasn't been whistled back by his masters, would suggest they're still negotiating. I have a hard time believing Trump is a peace dove, but if he says tensions between Russia and the West should be reduced, and the arms race reversed, he's 100% right.

[SteveMDFP]

  I have a hard time believing Trump is a peace dove, but if he says tensions between Russia and the West should be reduced, and the arms race reversed, he's 100% right.

Some of Trump's words are right (occasionally), most of them are wrong.  On this, he contradicts himself badly:

Trump says missiles ‘will be coming’ to Syria, taunts Russia for vowing to block them
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-says-missiles-will-be-coming-to-syria-taunts-russia-for-vowing-to-block-them/2018/04/11/7dc52fa0-3d7a-11e8-8d53-eba0ed2371cc_story.html?utm_term=.6d6c4edba13c

Words vs. Deeds.  Most of Trump's words are bad, his actions are worse.

[Buddy]

It's also one of the driving forces behind Russiagate.

No.  The driving force behind RussiaGate is a candidate and his helpers trying to use any means possible to win ..... including Russian's and their little "bot" (bought friends.  If he never would have committed crimes ..... there would be NO RussiaGate.

I'd very much like to know how much Trump is in bed with those guys or not. Given this tweet and the fact that Mueller still hasn't been whistled back by his masters, would suggest they're still negotiating.

Sure ..... no doubt. 

I have a hard time believing Trump is a peace dove, but if he says tensions between Russia and the West should be reduced, and the arms race reversed, he's 100% right.

And we all know that Traitor Donnie CAN be trusted to be truthful and honest.   

[Neven]

I can agree with you guys on Trump (and I do for the most part) AND agree with Trump's words that the US and Russia need to work together to reduce tensions and armament. I sincerely hope those missiles will be shot, but then again, I don't hold stocks in the weapons industry (or anywhere else for that matter) and I guess I'm too much of a lefty to attack Trump from the right.

Is it me or are things a bit boring on the Russiagate front? Any news from the Skripals, or how Cambridge Analytica is actually a Russian FSB/GRU propaganda project?

[TerryM]

I can agree with you guys on Trump (and I do for the most part) AND agree with Trump's words that the US and Russia need to work together to reduce tensions and armament. I sincerely hope those missiles will be shot, but then again, I don't hold stocks in the weapons industry (or anywhere else for that matter) and I guess I'm too much of a lefty to attack Trump from the right.

Is it me or are things a bit boring on the Russiagate front? Any news from the Skripals, or how Cambridge Analytica is actually a Russian FSB/GRU propaganda project?

I'm assuming from other posts that you meant to say Will Not Be Shot, as in Not Fired In Anger?
Terry

[TerryM]

A former British Ambassador to Syria gives his two cents worth.



'Tis but 6 minutes and 100% audio, so you can scan some other articles while listening.
The host attempts to talk over him but he's quite insistent about making his point.

Two former ambassadors have now debunked the last two attempted false flags. Could it be that those presently working in the field are restricted and must spout the government's line?
Terry

[sidd]

Re: Skirpal case

I think the evidence supports the theory that the poison was not synthesized by a state level actor. If it had, it would have killed almost instantly instead of taking effect hours later. Some chemist in a garage as in the earlier telephone poisoning case, of which i have posted before. I do not think all stocks of the agent in that case were ever found, so it is possible that the Skirpal poison was part of that batch, possibly degraded to the point it was no longer immediately lethal. Test results on the earlier case exist, but I do not know if Porton Down has them, or whether putative degradation made conclusive identification impossible.

sidd

[Rob Dekker]

First evidence of a chemical attack in Douma comes in from Bellingcat, who analyzed and geo-located publicly available evidence (mostly videos taken by locals) :

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2018/04/11/open-source-survey-alleged-chemical-attacks-douma-7th-april-2018/

Summary :

- A large compressed gas cylinder of a type used in previous aerial chlorine attacks was filmed on top of the building [( geolocated at 33.573878, 36.404793)] where a large number of fatalities were documented.

- The number of dead bodies that can be established through open source data is 34+.

- Aircraft spotters reported two Mi-8 Hip helicopters heading southwest from Dumayr Airbase, in the direction of Douma, 30 minutes before the chemical attack in Douma, and two Hip helicopters were observed above Douma shortly before the attack.

- The Syrian Government has previously been identified as using Mi-8 Hip helicopters to drop chlorine cylinders on opposition held areas.

Footage and images posted on social media after the 1930 attack appear to depict a significant number of casualties, with many dead bodies located in a single building. Many of these bodies displayed symptoms consistent with the claims made in the Syrian Civil Defence statement and the VDC report.

Also their analysis confirms that the Russians DID look in the right building, and the reason they did not find any bodies was that these had been removed before the Russians arrived (video of the removal of the bodies is presented).

Bellingcat compiled a very carefully worded conclusion :

Based on the available evidence, it is highly likely the 34+ victims killed in the 19:30 attack on the apartment building near al-Shuhada Square were killed as a result of a gas cylinder filled with what is most likely chlorine gas being dropped from a Hip helicopter originating from Dumayr Airbase.

[TerryM]

Yulia Speaks! - or at least the police issue a statement on her behalf.

http://news.met.police.uk/news/statement-issued-on-behalf-of-yulia-skripal-302508

She's so grateful to the hospital, so grateful to the police, too ill to hold a press conference and doesn't want to talk to the Russian Embassy or her cousin.

Wonder why she didn't want to stay with her father, why she couldn't make use of a phone, and why she doesn't want to see or hear from her cousin?
Stranger and strangerer.
Terry

[TerryM]

A Tale of Two Cities


In Salisbury, the Brits still keep the victims and evidence hidden away from prying eyes.
In Douma, Syria and Russia invite OPCW to investigate.


In Salisbury they will bulldoze the house, restaurant and pub where evidence may still be found.
In Douma Trump threatens to send "smart missiles" to destroy any evidence that might be found.


In Salisbury, it didn't make sense that Putin would poison his ex-prisoner.
In Douma, it doesn't make sense that Assad would poison those about to surrender.


In Salisbury the "attack" was incredibly poorly executed.
In Douma the "attack" was almost a shot for shot repeat of the last attack(s) that the white hats filmed.


In Salisbury the initial number of victims was over 40 - now with zero deaths.
In Douma the number of victims have gone from 500, to 36 - and that's with no investigation!


Those in the know - former ambassadors - say both are fictions designed to start a war.
Terry

[Neven]

First evidence of a chemical attack in Douma comes in from Bellingcat, who analyzed and geo-located publicly available evidence (mostly videos taken by locals) :

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2018/04/11/open-source-survey-alleged-chemical-attacks-douma-7th-april-2018/

Summary :

- A large compressed gas cylinder of a type used in previous aerial chlorine attacks was filmed on top of the building [( geolocated at 33.573878, 36.404793)] where a large number of fatalities were documented.

- The number of dead bodies that can be established through open source data is 34+.

- Aircraft spotters reported two Mi-8 Hip helicopters heading southwest from Dumayr Airbase, in the direction of Douma, 30 minutes before the chemical attack in Douma, and two Hip helicopters were observed above Douma shortly before the attack.

- The Syrian Government has previously been identified as using Mi-8 Hip helicopters to drop chlorine cylinders on opposition held areas.

Footage and images posted on social media after the 1930 attack appear to depict a significant number of casualties, with many dead bodies located in a single building. Many of these bodies displayed symptoms consistent with the claims made in the Syrian Civil Defence statement and the VDC report.

Also their analysis confirms that the Russians DID look in the right building, and the reason they did not find any bodies was that these had been removed before the Russians arrived (video of the removal of the bodies is presented).

Bellingcat compiled a very carefully worded conclusion :

Based on the available evidence, it is highly likely the 34+ victims killed in the 19:30 attack on the apartment building near al-Shuhada Square were killed as a result of a gas cylinder filled with what is most likely chlorine gas being dropped from a Hip helicopter originating from Dumayr Airbase.

No more investigation needed. Send in the missiles.

[SteveMDFP]

Re: Skirpal case

I think the evidence supports the theory that the poison was not synthesized by a state level actor. If it had, it would have killed almost instantly instead of taking effect hours later. 

Completely false.  Basic toxicology--it's all about absorbed dose.  Another contributor above stated that Novichok agents are solid at room temperature.  For such an agent to have immediate effect, it has to be injected or inhaled.  In this case, it would have to be snorted, aerosolized, or maybe heated to give off vapor -- none of these are in the picture.

We're likely dealing with transdermal absorption.  Anything that can cross the blood-brain barrier will slowly penetrate skin.  Scenario:  1 mg gram of Novichok is dissolved in 2 cc of mineral oil.  Add some DMSO if you want faster absorption.  The assassin paints the front door handle with said 2 cc of oily substance, under cover of darkness.

Next day, Skripal leaves the house, and grabs the door handle while checking that the door is locked.  It was probably envisioned that he'd not grab the door handle until he returned, resulting in death in bed.  Regardless, 100mg ends up on the palm of his dominant hand. 

Lethal dose of Novichok seems to be roughly 1mg.  With 100mg on his palm, how long until 1mg is absorbed?   The only folks who would know would be the ones in Russia who would have done animal studies.  They may have painted palms of primates.  Maybe they just used pigs' backs.
My wild guess would be anywhere from 1 - 8 hours.  Again, this could be adjusted by adding DMSO.

His daughter gets a lethal dose from holding his hand, or his touching her face, or his handing her something.

Yes, a good chemist could probably *technically* make the stuff in his garage.  At risk of killing himself with a careless mistake.  Also at risk of lifetime imprisonment if found out.  At substantial cost, and with a need of a separate team for pre-assassination surveillance.  And he'd want to be out of the country by the time death occurred.  In a host nation without extradition.

Implausible.  Putin had strong motive, material at hand, absence of compunctions, stated hatred of such traitors, and a prior track record of assassinations "with dramatic flair":

The devilish art of assassination: Why Russia eliminates its enemies with dramatic flair
http://nationalpost.com/news/the-devilish-art-of-assassination-why-russia-eliminates-its-enemies-with-dramatic-flair

[Michael Hauber]

I have a question: Who creates Public Opinion?

Given your reply I assume you believe that is the Public. If you do, I strongly disagree, in advance. Karl Rove surely disagrees too. As do many others who know.

I guess you think the correct answer is the media.  But what controls the media?  The media is a cacophony of different voices telling different stories.  A media outlet that publishes what a big enough section of the public wants to hear will be profitable.  A media outlet that publishes what no section of the public wants to hear will go bankrupt.  Or if it is a government owned outlet make it harder for the government to get votes.

The media influences public opinion.  Public opinion influences the media.  It is a dog chasing its own tail, and where it goes no one knows.  The truth is caught somewhere in the middle, and even manages to disrupt the dog's path from time to time.  Public opinion is created by no one and everyone.

[sedziobs]

All but maybe 3 accurate polls of a multitude of wrong ones had HRC winning the Presidency in 2016

Quinnipiac was not one of those 3

So what can we conclude from this?

Asking Americans what they think or believe is a total waste of everyone's time.

Polls had Hillary winning by 4%, she actually won by 2% (of the total vote). That's just a standard polling error.  Polling errors are not unique to Americans.

I don't know a whole lot about geopolitical events, but I find it difficult to seriously consider much of what you post given the repeated vitriol directed at Americans.  You posted a pair of hour long anti-American lectures by a man whose website promotes UFO sightings and a conspiracy that Lyndon Johnson orchestrated the JFK assassination, among other strange ideas.  Your sources include overtly anti-globalization websites and propaganda centers.

http://www.collectivepsych.com/
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Globalresearch
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Nsnbc.me

I'm not even saying your points are wrong, but many of your sources are garbage in my view.  It amazes me that this kind of thing has a place in a scientific forum such as this.

[sidd]

Re: making the thing in a garage

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1974.msg149030.html#msg149030

In the link included therein:

"Leonid Rink, a former employee of the chemical weapons facility, admits in case files seen by the Guardian and first reported by Reuters to enlisting a scientist to develop a batch of the nerve agent in his garage and sell it to an organised crime group. He was caught before the murder of Kivelidi, but the nerve agent was later used in the killing."

In the link in that post:

"results of a mass spectrometry and an infrared spectroscopy of the poisonous substance, which was scraped off a telephone receiver used by the businessman Ivan Kivelidi and his secretary. Both died in agony."

so for a three hour time to symptomatics and zero mortality, looks like an incompetent chemist in a garage. Or they tried to use a 23 year old batch of toxin.

As others have pointed out, the russians know exactly what fatal doses are and best means of action. Any state level actor would do better, the Skirpals would not have survived.

So even a guy in a garage and a bunch of lo-rent mobsters can pull off a better hit. Or just run over the guy with a truck, for cryin out loud.

sidd

[SteveMDFP]

Re: making the thing in a garage

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1974.msg149030.html#msg149030

In the link included therein:

"Leonid Rink, a former employee of the chemical weapons facility, admits in case files seen by the Guardian and first reported by Reuters to enlisting a scientist to develop a batch of the nerve agent in his garage and sell it to an organised crime group. He was caught before the murder of Kivelidi, but the nerve agent was later used in the killing."

In the link in that post:

"results of a mass spectrometry and an infrared spectroscopy of the poisonous substance, which was scraped off a telephone receiver used by the businessman Ivan Kivelidi and his secretary. Both died in agony."

so for a three hour time to symptomatics and zero mortality, looks like an incompetent chemist in a garage. Or they tried to use a 23 year old batch of toxin.

As others have pointed out, the russians know exactly what fatal doses are and best means of action. Any state level actor would do better, the Skirpals would not have survived.

So even a guy in a garage and a bunch of lo-rent mobsters can pull off a better hit. Or just run over the guy with a truck, for cryin out loud.

sidd

Well, Leonid Rink and Vladimir Uglev seem to have somewhat differing opinions.  Possibly Rink didn't want to point the finger at the KGB/FSB in the banker's murder, and so made up the Russian mafia/garage part of the story:

'Novichok was used in 1995 murder': Scientist who developed nerve agent explosively claims it killed Russian businessman and his secretary
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/novichok-used-1995-murder-scientist-12244642

"Vladimir Uglev confirmed a Novichok strain he developed was used to poison Russian banker Ivan Kivelidi, 46, and his secretary Zara Ismailova, 35, more than two decades ago. . .
Vladimir Uglev, now retired, said the substance he helped to develop was used to kill banker Ivan Kivelidi, 46, and his secretary Zara Ismailova, 35, more than two decades ago.
He has also backed Britain by saying it is possible to identify the source of the nerve agent - and it WAS made in Russia.
Moscow officials have claimed there was no production of a suspected poison of this name used to attack spy Sergei Skripal , 66, and his daughter Yulia, 33.
But Uglev claims he helped produce four agents mainly under the code name Foliant, from 1972 until 1988 in the Soviet era.
He confirmed that a Novichok strain was used to poison Kivelidi and Ismailova.

“One of these substances was used to poison the banker, Ivan Kivelidi and his secretary in 1995,” said Uglev.

“A cotton ball, soaked in this agent, was rubbed over the microphone in the handset of Kivelidi’s telephone.

“That specific dose was developed by my group, where we produced all of the chemical agents, and each dose which we developed was given its own complete physical-chemical passport.

“ It was therefore not difficult to determine who had prepared that dose and when it was developed.

“Naturally, the investigators also suspected me. I was questioned several times about this incident.”

[sidd]

I see no contradiction between the Rink and Uglev reports. It is agreed the Russians developed it. They know the signatures, they know the chemists involved, they know the process, fingerprint, doses and lethality.  And they nailed Rink.

That's why i find it hard to believe they botched the Skirpal poisoning.

And in regard to the cops holding the daughter incommunicado: that indicates they can't let her speak freely. Why ?

sidd

[TerryM]

Can I suggest that we keep the supposed deeds of the Soviet Union separated from those of the Russian Federation?
Terry

[SteveMDFP]

I see no contradiction between the Rink and Uglev reports. It is agreed the Russians developed it. They know the signatures, they know the chemists involved, they know the process, fingerprint, doses and lethality.  And they nailed Rink.

That's why i find it hard to believe they botched the Skirpal poisoning.

And in regard to the cops holding the daughter incommunicado: that indicates they can't let her speak freely. Why ?

sidd

No, somebody is mis-quoting Reuters, and it wasn't the Guardian.  The actual Reuters reporting says:
"In a statement to investigators after his arrest, viewed by Reuters, Rink said he was in possession of poisons created as part of the chemical weapons program which he stored in his garage. On more than one occasion, he said, he sold the substances to supplement his income and pay down a debt."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-russia-stockpiles/secret-trial-shows-risks-of-nerve-agent-theft-in-post-soviet-chaos-experts-idUSKCN1GQ2RH

This makes much more sense than the misquoting source.  If your *job* is to work with Novichok in a state lab, why on earth would you try to make it in your garage, rather than sneak some out?

I don't think there's any reason to believe the assassination attempt could credibly have been done by a non-state actor.

[sidd]

The guardian link 6 april 2018 reports on case files seen by them:

"Leonid Rink, a former employee of the chemical weapons facility, admits in case files seen by the Guardian and first reported by Reuters to enlisting a scientist to develop a batch of the nerve agent in his garage and sell it to an organised crime group."

The reuters report mar 14 2018  is from a statement made from Rink after arrest:

"In a statement to investigators after his arrest, viewed by Reuters, Rink said he was in possession of poisons created as part of the chemical weapons program which he stored in his garage. On more than one occasion, he said, he sold the substances to supplement his income and pay down a debt. "

The guardian article extends reuters reporting and refers to "case files."  Mebbe the guardian has more than reuters. Andrew Roth is the reporter for the guardian article and no byline for the reuters article. Will have to watch for detail.

sidd

[Rob Dekker]

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2018/04/11/open-source-survey-alleged-chemical-attacks-douma-7th-april-2018/
..
Bellingcat compiled a very carefully worded conclusion :

Based on the available evidence, it is highly likely the 34+ victims killed in the 19:30 attack on the apartment building near al-Shuhada Square were killed as a result of a gas cylinder filled with what is most likely chlorine gas being dropped from a Hip helicopter originating from Dumayr Airbase.

No more investigation needed. Send in the missiles.

The Bellingcat analysis presents all the evidence we, as the public, have at this point.

I would hope that on this forum, where we should be scientifically oriented, we can discuss the evidence presented, and use it to test any other theory one might hold.

Also, I am appalled by Trump's response. Even the Pentagon was surprised :

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/11/politics/us-military-strike-options-syria-trump/index.html

Trump caught most of his aides and the Pentagon off-guard on Wednesday by declaring on Twitter that "nice and new and 'smart'" missiles would soon be fired toward Syria -- an announcement that came before an agreement had been reached between key US allies, multiple American and Western officials said.

Top military officials were at the White House on Wednesday afternoon to discuss options for Syria, according to senior aides, and a decision on how to respond to the weekend's chemical attack had not yet been made when Trump took to Twitter, people familiar with the discussions said.

[sedziobs]

Wow.  I'll just repeat "it amazes me that this kind of thing has a place in a scientific forum such as this."  I've never seen so much obstinate sophistry on this site.

[Rob Dekker]

Thomas, you now posted 9 comments in a row, without a single reference.
When are you going to address the open source evidence in the Bellingcat analysis ? :

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2018/04/11/open-source-survey-alleged-chemical-attacks-douma-7th-april-2018/

[Neven]

Rob, how trustworthy are the sources used in the article (White Helmets, Syrian Network for Human Rights)? Who posted those YouTube videos? Who are the aircraft spotters?

And more generally: Why does an open source journalist like Eliot Higgins get a fellowship at the Atlantic Council and get offered jobs at weapon manufacturers? Open source suggests things like non-profit and unbiased. Bellingcat obviously isn't.

And finally, even though you don't like to speculate about motives, do you think it makes sense for Assad to gas his own people when he's already on the verge of winning?

I see no US missiles have been fired yet. Good. I was actually a bit worried about that last night and thought: Is it time yet for all people of good will in the world to go out in the streets and march for peace? Or is it already too late for that? Would it even help?

[Rob Dekker]

Rob, how trustworthy are the sources used in the article (White Helmets, Syrian Network for Human Rights)? Who posted those YouTube videos? Who are the aircraft spotters?

Neven, why does it matter who posted the videos ?
The video's are there, for anyone to geo-locate, and time.
Do you contest that they are taken from 33.573878, 36.404793 ?
Or do you contest the time these videos were taken ?
If you don't then these videos are evidence of what happened at that time and that location.
Regardless of who recorded the videos.
Does that make sense ?

And more generally: Why does an open source journalist like Eliot Higgins get a fellowship at the Atlantic Council and get offered jobs at weapon manufacturers? Open source suggests things like non-profit and unbiased. Bellingcat obviously isn't.

This looks like an ad hominem to me.
What does Eliot Higgins or the Atlantic council have to do with the evidence presented in the article ?

And finally, even though you don't like to speculate about motives, do you think it makes sense for Assad to gas his own people when he's already on the verge of winning?

He did it before. Many times. Here is one from last year :
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/04/05/khan-sheikhoun-chemical-attack-evidence-far/

Or this one, the fourth chemical attack in Eastern Ghouta this year, on February 25, when Assad was on the verge of winning al-Shefonia :
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2018/03/15/syrian-forces-bombard-eastern-ghouta-chemical-weapons-fourth-consecutive-time-since-beginning-2018/

The only reason this did not get any international attention was that only one child died in that attack.

Not to mention the 1,600 civilians that died this year in Eastern Ghouta due to indiscriminate non-chemical bombing by Assad.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/10/world/middleeast/syria-gas-attack-east-ghouta.html

[Neven]

Neven, why does it matter who posted the videos ?

It matters if for instance it's a false flag operation (not saying it is).

The video's are there, for anyone to geo-locate, and time.
Do you contest that they are taken from 33.573878, 36.404793 ?
Or do you contest the time these videos were taken ?
If you don't then these videos are evidence of what happened at that time and that location.
Regardless of who recorded the videos.
Does that make sense ?

Yes, it makes perfect sense. I'm not contesting where or when it happened.

This looks like an ad hominem to me.
What does Eliot Higgins or the Atlantic council have to do with the evidence presented in the article ?

Evidence can be framed a certain way, depending on the biases of the person or entity presenting the evidence. For the same reason other evidence or analysis can be left out. It's highly likely that Higgins and thus probably all of Bellingcat has a pro-NATO and pro weapon industry bias.

Just like you refer to the propornot list (also presented by a clearly biased source) when assessing a source's reliability, I do the same for this particular source. The fact that Higgins was hoping to get a job at a weapons manufacturer, a few years ago, and that he is a fellow at the Atlantic Council, makes me careful not to trust Bellingcat unconditionally.

He did it before. Many times. Here is one from last year :
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/04/05/khan-sheikhoun-chemical-attack-evidence-far/

Or this one, the fourth chemical attack in Eastern Ghouta this year, on February 25, when Assad was on the verge of winning al-Shefonia :
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2018/03/15/syrian-forces-bombard-eastern-ghouta-chemical-weapons-fourth-consecutive-time-since-beginning-2018/

Has this been 100% confirmed by other, more independent parties? I believe the other instances are just as contested as this recent one, if only for the fact that the rebels are extremists who don't mind committing war crimes themselves. That's what's making this whole thing so messy, evil people all around, and too many outsiders adding their shit to the mix.

It doesn't make sense that Assad would be doing this, if his goal is to win the war.

[Neven]

You know that times are strange when the American 'left' pushes for war and you can only get rational analysis in effing Fox:

[zizek]

I would hope that on this forum, where we should be scientifically oriented, we can discuss the evidence presented, and use it to test any other theory one might hold.

My god Rob, you are insuferable.

Bellingcat is the epitome of shit science. He doesn't speak Arabic (maybe he does now, i haven't been following him much lately), yet he speaks as an authority on the Arabic world. He's been wrong on many occasions, and never admits to it.  His posts in the past have been obviously biased and poorly thought out.
Give this man a noble prize, he's figured out how to report accurately in the fog of war..... without even being there! Truly only a scientist can appreciate what this man is capable of


Bellingcat is a wet dream for the tools of imperialism.  The CIA used to have to go through long and convoluted operations in order to control the narrative.

The CIA’s use of the American news media has been much more extensive than Agency officials have acknowledged publicly or in closed sessions with members of Congress. The general outlines of what happened are indisputable; the specifics are harder to come by. CIA sources hint that a particular journalist was trafficking all over Eastern Europe for the Agency; the journalist says no, he just had lunch with the station chief. CIA sources say flatly that a well‑known ABC correspondent worked for the Agency through 1973; they refuse to identify him. A high‑level CIA official with a prodigious memory says that the New York Times provided cover for about ten CIA operatives between 1950 and 1966; he does not know who they were, or who in the newspaper’s management made the arrangements.

http://www.carlbernstein.com/magazine_cia_and_media.php


Not anymore! You can find some random dude living in his moms apartment, feed him whatever bullshit you want, and people will take it as gospel. He doesn't even have to work for you, or even been a true believer. No lengthy background checks, no big payrolls, no pensions. nothing. He just has to be dumb enough that he won't provide any actual nuance.
Between Bellingcat and the White Helmets, I can only imagine the absolute joy found in Langley: "We don't even have to try anymore, these idiots will believe anything"


Bellingcat is the equivalent of the dude saying climate change isn't real because it's really cold right now.

[zizek]

You keep on talking about science and facts.... And we keep on giving you facts.... A series of data points of western states expanding their empire through violent imperialist action:
Iraq
Libya
Afghanistan
Yemen
Somalia
And everything else in the 20th century

Each data point had very similar lead ups to to intervention: controlling the narrative by aggressively reporting on "crimes" committed by the anti-western state.  Bomb the shit out of them. And oops, looks like we were wrong about those crimes. better luck next time.
Iraq can not be a better example of why we should be critical of what is going on in Syria.

Believing Syria is going to have different outcomes, is simply bad science

[SteveMDFP]

I don't think there's any reason to believe the assassination attempt could credibly have been done by a non-state actor.

I think you're assuming there was one.

There are also people who swear the Newtown massacre was a hoax.
That no plane hit the Pentagon
That the moon landing never happened
All of the same cloth.

[sedziobs]

You know that times are strange when the American 'left' pushes for war and you can only get rational analysis in effing Fox:

What???  The left as a whole isn't pushing for war.  Trump certainly is, as are quite a few on the right.  The left wants information and restraint.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/10/politics/congress-reactions-syria-aumf/index.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-warns-missiles-apos-coming-125350779.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/11/world/middleeast/syria-chemical-attack.html

I know America has a despicable history of interventionist policy, and a current administration that is flippantly reactionary.  But I would think the members of this particular forum would be more interested in analyzing the evidence of this particular case, rather than swimming in a slew of propaganda.

[sedziobs]

I take it that you do not accept any of my explanations with more info, nor do you appreciate me correcting your factual errors, wrong assumptions and false characterizations - which you've now added too.

I do not accept hardly any of your explanations, as most are based on inferences.  I have to work, and don't have the time or will to respond to a page long list of grievances.  You are shamelessly posting propaganda.  I have no respect for that, and argumentum ad infinitum is unlikely to change anything.

[TerryM]

I don't think there's any reason to believe the assassination attempt could credibly have been done by a non-state actor.

I think you're assuming there was one.

There are also people who swear the Newtown massacre was a hoax.
That no plane hit the Pentagon
That the moon landing never happened
All of the same cloth.

Steve


Those are silly analogies, as I'm sure you are aware.


There are also people who believe the world is flat. What on earth does this have to do with three sick people who were treated and recovered from poisoning, but who were never, ever treated for nerve agent poisoning?


I've had a fair share of acquaintances that died, or recovered, from one sort of poisoning or another. As far as I know, none were the victims, or intended victims, of an assassination attempt.


It doesn't require a conspiracy theory to demand proof that an assassination did take place. Insisting that an assassination attempt did transpire with absolutely no evidence is the stuff that Newtone, the Pentagon, and the moon hoaxes are made of.


Terry

[SteveMDFP]

Steve


Those are silly analogies, as I'm sure you are aware.


There are also people who believe the world is flat. What on earth does this have to do with three sick people who were treated and recovered from poisoning, but who were never, ever treated for nerve agent poisoning?

I think you're seriously over-reading one letter from an ER doc.  He made clear that the point of the letter was to refute the hysteria about rumors of dozens of victims of nerve agent exposure.  He did so with the letter.  He acknowledged that three had been poisoned, without specifically stating that the poisoning was (or was not) nerve agent exposure.  In this context his passing statement that no victims of nerve agent poisoning were treated was ambiguous, and should be interpreted cautiously.  I believe he meant that no other people were treated for this problem.

Or maybe he actually doubted the three actually had nerve agent poisoning, he didn't say.  Unless he himself treated the three, he'd be less competent to judge than those who did. 
The only alternative to the three being such victims, that I can see, would be a large conspiracy among likely dozens of people and several different agencies.  I know of nobody directly involved who has stated the poisoning wasn't a nerve agent.  Modern conspiracies are always far leakier than this.

Regardless, it seems clear the writer was in a hurry to dispel panic.  I doubt her carefully proof-read and edited his letter.  That's my interpretation.

Insisting that an assassination attempt did transpire with absolutely no evidence is the stuff that Newtone, the Pentagon, and the moon hoaxes are made of.

Terry

The clinicians who treated the three are unlikely to speak to the media--there are confidentiality ethics.  Available evidence isn't "none," it consists of authoritative statements about findings of Novichok samples and authoritative statements that three people were treated for nerve agent exposure.

So yes, claiming there was no assassination attempt really is comparable to claiming Newtown was a hoax or the moon landing never happened.

[sedziobs]

There are also people who swear the Newtown massacre was a hoax.
That no plane hit the Pentagon
That the moon landing never happened
All of the same cloth.

Those are silly analogies, as I'm sure you are aware.

Just yesterday Thomas posted two lectures from this website: http://www.collectivepsych.com/. Steve's analogies would fit right in.

That doesn't necessarily mean he's wrong in this case, but there is a pattern.

[Buddy]

Is RussiaGate pushing the wives of future inmates to file now?

First Trump Jr., now Rudy Giuliani.  What good are they going to be in prison anyway?

https://pagesix.com/2018/04/04/rudy-and-judith-giuliani-to-divorce/

[SteveMDFP]

International chemical watchdog backs Britain’s findings on agent used to poison ex-Russian spy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/international-chemical-watchdog-backs-britains-findings-on-agent-used-to-poison-ex-russian-spy/2018/04/12/4a6687ca-3e2f-11e8-8d53-eba0ed2371cc_story.html?utm_term=.aa78d9132cc0

The international watchdog agency that monitors the use of chemical weapons said Thursday that its independent investigators have confirmed Britain’s assertions that the toxic chemical used to poison former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter was a military-grade nerve agent known as Novichok.

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) sent a team of investigators to Britain, where they took blood samples from Yulia and Sergei Skripal and Salisbury police officer and first responder Nicholas Bailey. During its stay from March 21 to 23, the OPCW team also took samples of the nerve agent found at the scene.

In a report published Thursday, the OPCW said it confirmed “the findings of the United Kingdom relating to the identity of the toxic chemical that was used in Salisbury and severely injured three people.”

In a separate, classified report, the OPCW investigators described the formula and signature of the nerve agent used in precise detail. They did not include the formula in the public report, in part because they do not want anyone else to try to replicate the agent.

he OPCW also did not say who had manufactured the nerve agent or where or when it was created. But the report noted that it was of “high purity” with “the almost complete absence of impurities.”

British officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the case, said the high purity of the chemical points toward its creation in a sophisticated, government-run laboratory — and not some terrorist’s kitchen.
. . .
Yulia and her father, a former Russian double agent, were found on March 4 slumped over on a park bench in Salisbury, a quiet city in the southwest of England.

In a statement issued via police, she rejected assistance from the Russian Embassy “at the moment.” Yulia Skripal is a Russian citizen who was in England to visit her father.

A few hours before the release of the OPCW report, the director of Britain’s surveillance agency, Jeremy Fleming, accused Russia of being “reckless” in mounting a nerve-agent attack on British soil.

Fleming blamed “the Kremlin” for the assassination attempt. The surveillance agency — the Government Communications Headquarters, or GCHQ — plays a role similar to that of the National Security Agency in the United States."
___________________________________________________

In other news, the moon landing also happened.

Steve

[Neven]

You'd expect weekly press conferences  to be held, attended by reporters asking questions to inform the public of how the investigation is proceeding. Questions like Thomas is asking. Maybe I'm not following this closely enough, but I'm not seeing any of that. There is almost zero transparency, and no follow-up to match the initial hype.

But either way, it's a miracle the Skripals have survived. Sergey probably closed the door using his elbow, with which he nudged Yulia at Zizzi's.

[TerryM]

On a much happier note.

Mad Dog Mathis tells congress "An attack on Syria is not yet in the offing"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/defense-secretary-james-mattis-says-attack-on-syria-is-not-yet-in-the-offing/

Someone else had the temerity to point out that the dark of the moon isn't until April 13,14.and 15.
Terry

[sidd]

http://news.met.police.uk/news/statement-issued-on-behalf-of-yulia-skripal-301372

is a statement attributed to Yulia Skripal.

"...no one speaks for me ..." is an odd construct given that the Met police are speaking for her.

sidd

[gerontocrat]

Practicalities, such a nuisance.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/12/trump-bellicose-tweets-run-far-ahead-us-military-readiness-hit-syria

Trump's tweets run far ahead of US military's readiness to hit Syria
Pentagon not tactically prepared to back up president’s bellicose language with US firepower

Regardless of Trump’s bellicose language, the US currently does not have a US aircraft carrier strike force deployed in the Middle East. The carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, the lead vessel in carrier strike group nine, had been in the region launching strikes against both Islamic State and the Taliban but left recently after its four-month deployment, arriving in the Philippines on Wednesday.

Its replacement in the region, the USS Harry S Truman carrier group, left Norfolk, Virginia, on Wednesday and would not be able to reach the Mediterranean until early May, with its movements already being tracked by the Russian military, according to a statement to reporters from Lt Gen Viktor Poznikhir, first deputy chief of the Russian general staff’s main operations directorate.

That would leave a US guided-missile destroyer, the USS Donald Cook, which is in the Mediterranean, available for any missile strikes on Syria. The Cook is the same class of ship that was used by the US navy when Trump ordered his last – and limited – strikes against the Assad regime in April 2017 following a chemical weapons attack in Idlib.

A second US Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer, the USS Porter, is also understood to be in the Mediterranean and like the Donald Cook carries an arsenal of around two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Another possibility is that missiles could be launched from US submarines, the locations of which are a tightly guarded secret.

[sidd]

The Skripal OPCW report specifically states that the agent was very pure. So my conjecture that the nonlethality of the agent was due to degradation or impurity is incorrect. So that brings me back to the point that since the Skripal's are alive, a)they were incredibly lucky and/or b)the attempt was incompetent.
 
sidd

[TerryM]

The Skripal OPCW report specifically states that the agent was very pure. So my conjecture that the nonlethality of the agent was due to degradation or impurity is incorrect. So that brings me back to the point that since if the Skripal's are alive, a)they were incredibly lucky and/or b)the attempt was incompetent.
 
sidd

Couldn't help myself.
Terry


Oh, just to keep the "Assad always uses chemical weapons" story properly buried:

http://www.newsweek.com/now-mattis-admits-there-was-no-evidence-assad-using-poison-gas-his-people-801542

Newsweek way back in February printed that Mad Dog Mathis admitted that they had No Evidence of Assad ever using chemical weapons on his people.

Was this another one that bellingcat was grotesquely wrong about?
How many have now died based on lies this ladies underwear warrior has told.

[Neven]

Is RussiaGate pushing the wives of future inmates to file now?

First Trump Jr., now Rudy Giuliani.  What good are they going to be in prison anyway?

https://pagesix.com/2018/04/04/rudy-and-judith-giuliani-to-divorce/

Don't forget the Mooch! 

[johnm33]

Just a little aside, a bunch of doctors called for an open public enquiry into what they saw as the murder of Dr. David Kelly and they kept it up, to no avail, for a few years. I suspect that sympathy for their cause was widespread among medical and chemical weapons professionals and that maybe they are currently refusing to co-operate with the security services.

[Neven]

I suspect that sympathy for their cause was widespread among medical and chemical weapons professionals

And among rock stars as well:

The song was written about biological warfare expert David Kelly who, as a matter of some contention, committed suicide in 2003. However, there is speculation that he was murdered, as demonstrated in the song. Thom Yorke himself confirmed the song's meaning in several interviews.

Harrowdown Hill in Longworth, Oxfordshire is notable for being the place where the body of Dr. David Kelly was found in 2003. His evidence had raised questions about Saddam Hussein's possession of weapons of mass destruction — the official justification for the UK government's decision to invade Iraq. In an interview with The Globe and Mail, Yorke said, "The government and the Ministry of Defence... were directly responsible for outing him and that put him in a position of unbearable pressure that he couldn't deal with, and they knew they were doing it and what it would do to him... I've been feeling really uncomfortable about that song lately, because it was a personal tragedy, and Dr. Kelly has a family who are still grieving. But I also felt that not to write it would perhaps have been worse."