The Russiagate conspiracy theory

[TerryM]

I've been thinking some more on the Skripal stuff as related to the Boshirov/Petrov stuff.


As bad as Russia is, I wouldn't be surprised if some entity is trying to frame Russia. This should be a non-story, but it's so incredibly hyped up by politicians (to distract from stuff like Brexit) and media (as an overseas reinforcement of Russiagate) and anyone else who profits from bad relations with Russia (like the Atlantic Council and Eliot Higgins).

And there's one thing that still hasn't been cleared up or investigated: Skripal's relationship with Pablo Miller and Steele (Orbis). This could actually be a great argument for those who believe in the power of Russiagate to explain why Russia all of a sudden decided to liquidate Skripal. But at the same time, the other conspiracy theory would be that Skripal may know stuff that embarrasses factions on the other side of the pond, and so he needed to be shut up (either by killing him or scaring the living daylights (pun intended) out of him) and then blame Russia, which is the easiest thing in the world.

Either way, it's all bullshit in the greater scheme of things, just a ploy for propaganda, games between intelligence agencies. But it's an interesting mystery, if only because of the hype. Just imagine the establishment narrative not being true...

Skripal's relationship with Pablo Miller, Chris Steele and through them the infamous Dossier and it's connection to Nellie Ohr (who now refuses to testify before Congress), & her twice demoted husband, DOJ Official Bruce Ohr, are relationships that I see as far more fraught with danger than the wide trail plowed by two Russians attempting to view a snowed in Stonehenge on their holiday.


The British narrative wouldn't serve as the plot for a "B" movie. A fake perfume bottle of perfume, still sealed, that shows up months after the poisoning? Agents that detect novichok in a hotel room, but never inform the owner or restrict access to the room?
The demolition of so many of the other crime scenes because of the danger of military grade nerve agents - while advising the public that if they wash their clothes and use disposable wipes they're in no danger?


Someone went to great expense to keep the public uninformed. It wasn't the Russian Mafia, or any Russian, simply because they don't have that kind of influence in Britain. Knowing why TPTB in Britain are exerting such effort is far above my pay grade.


The answer won't be found in Russia passports or Mafia gang wars. Miller, Steele, Skripal, Ohr, there are connections, and questions need to be answered,
Terry

[sidd]

Each user can moderate his own feed. It's called an ignore list. Or, they can ignore entire threads that do not interest them.

But that clearly is too much work for some of our would be censors.

Neven can moderate or not as he wishes, it's his blog. Attacking his moderation policies because some here cannot be bothered to add to their ignore lists or even to use the scrollwheels or page down buttons is quite lazy.

But i suggest we move this to another thread, perhaps the "Forum Decorum" one.

sidd

[TerryM]

Each user can moderate his own feed. It's called an ignore list. Or, they can ignore entire threads that do not interest them.

But that clearly is too much work for some of our would be censors.

Neven can moderate or not as he wishes, it's his blog. Attacking his moderation policies because some here cannot be bothered to add to their ignore lists or even to use the scrollwheels or page down buttons is quite lazy.

But i suggest we move this to another thread, perhaps the "Forum Decorum" one.

sidd


Ramen
Terry

[sidd]

Here is an anonymous statement from someone claiming to be  physician for Seth Rich:

"we were instructed not to round on the VIP that came in last night ..."

"was physically blocked from checking on him"

https://www.intellihub.com/d-c-surgeon-who-operated-on-seth-rich-the-dnc-staffer-was-alive-and-well-after-surgery-before-a-group-of-leos-showed-up-to-the-icu/

Shouldn't be too hard to find this guy if he exists. Wonder if Hersh has found him already.

sidd

[SteveMDFP]

Here is an anonymous statement from someone claiming to be  physician for Seth Rich:

"we were instructed not to round on the VIP that came in last night ..."

"was physically blocked from checking on him"

https://www.intellihub.com/d-c-surgeon-who-operated-on-seth-rich-the-dnc-staffer-was-alive-and-well-after-surgery-before-a-group-of-leos-showed-up-to-the-icu/

Shouldn't be too hard to find this guy if he exists. Wonder if Hersh has found him already.

sidd

Well, it wasn't just an anonymous report.  It was from 4chan, anonymously.  The reporting organization, intellihub, is cited by, among others, mediabiasfactcheck.com, which states:
"Notes: Intellihub reports ridiculous conspiracies and anti-science claims. (8/10/2016)"

Perusing the site and the author's other postings, it does seem to be relentlessly anti-liberal, pro-Trump and anti-Mueller, peddling endless conspiracy theories.  It's a right-wing fringe site.

With zero corroboration, the report is just noise.

[Neven]

With zero corroboration, the report is just noise.

But it's open source! 

Just kidding, it's highly likely BS to serve some narrative. Maybe I'll have a look later.

Agreed. This has been bothering me for a long time. I honestly don't care about these discussions and can't tell who is right (probably no one when opinions are so polarized) but this is destroying the ASIF slowly but surely.

If it is destroying the ASIF, then 1) the ASIF isn't particularly strong, and 2) so be it, what comes up, must go down (but I think the ASIF will go up some more, or at least stay stationary).

As for the collegiality, I agree 100%, but in the Arctic sea ice, AGW and science threads. What we are discussing here, is about the future, and so visions are going to clash. They need to clash, or we won't move forward. It's not always pretty, it's certainly painful, but change always is.

I'm sorry that my Arctic sea ice persona and my political side are so different, but you have to remember I'm coming at this as an activist, that's what's driving me (also read the about me page on the ASIB). If I had been reasonable, I would never do all this stuff.

This is a tiny part of the ASIF, just a handful of threads in one of just two subcategories of Off-Topic, and they no longer show up on the front page (only on one of the top 10 lists). Don't let it get you down and keep coming back to get your certainties and conditioning tested. Maybe we can meet somewhere in the middle, which would be a good starting point for real meaningful change.

Back on topic: Everything needs to be done to optimize the relationship between the USA and Russia. We must not let the corrupt, power-hungry, money-loving warmongers on both sides dictate the agenda by stoking all this nonsense. Otherwise it's a huge obstacle to disarmament and solving AGW, and we simply cannot afford it.

[magnamentis]

I'm sorry that my Arctic sea ice persona and my political side are so different, but you have to remember I'm coming at this as an activist, that's what's driving me (also read the about me page on the ASIB). If I had been reasonable, I would never do all this stuff.

exactly and i finally went to read that linked part, explains a lot because you often caught me by surprise, now i know why and i know how difficult it is to switch between "personas" mostly because i fail in most cases while i prefer an honest fail over hypocrisy any time

[SteveMDFP]

Agreed. This has been bothering me for a long time. I honestly don't care about these discussions and can't tell who is right (probably no one when opinions are so polarized) but this is destroying the ASIF slowly but surely.

If it is destroying the ASIF, then 1) the ASIF isn't particularly strong, and 2) so be it, what comes up, must go down (but I think the ASIF will go up some more, or at least stay stationary).
. . .
Back on topic: Everything needs to be done to optimize the relationship between the USA and Russia. We must not let the corrupt, power-hungry, money-loving warmongers on both sides dictate the agenda by stoking all this nonsense. Otherwise it's a huge obstacle to disarmament and solving AGW, and we simply cannot afford it.

Please forgive me for continuing off-topic.  But Neven, I think you discount the product of your labors too easily.  I get worked up about bad behavior on these threads because I think ASIF is a jewel, a small but important piece of the work that needs to be done to salvage the planet and our species. Flame wars, even on one corner, corrode the product and make it less useful, less effective.

We have an extraordinary community here, built by your efforts as the gardener of this garden.  I'd not have the perseverance to do what you've done.  What you've done is no mean feat.  It's a worthy project for an activist.

As for the on-topic point you made, I have to disagree.  US-Russia relations are important, but a return to Cold War tensions isn't necessarily an unacceptable outcome.  Trump may be stupid enough to push his Big Button, but I'm quite confident Putin isn't.  I do think Putin has orchestrated a string of absolutely outrageous actions.  This shouldn't and wouldn't lead to a nuclear war or even conventional war, just sanctions. 

Meanwhile, don't forget that Russia's economy is built on extracting fossil fuels.  Sanctions are not the most even-handed way to retard fossil fuel extraction across the globe, but they seem to be one reasonably effective approach.

If climate change is the largest risk the planet faces, poor relations and consequent sanctions serve the net good.

[SteveMDFP]

[edited repost] I think this adequately address everyone's recent comments, so consider it that way please.

I see the ASIF as a deeply important resource on the net.  We have a community that discusses highly sophisticated, deeply technical matters that relate directly to the future of the entire planet and of our species.  Neven, you've done a profound service to humanity by creating and tending to this garden of thought and discourse.  I believe you're now allowing it to be degraded and harmed by permitting posts that corrode the collegiality that's been painstakingly built by many dedicated individuals.  This is a needless tragedy.

Agreed. This has been bothering me for a long time. I honestly don't care about these discussions and can't tell who is right (probably no one when opinions are so polarized) but this is destroying the ASIF slowly but surely.

There's an old saying that goes .... everything after but is bs. There's some truth to that.

No, I think a plain reading of the contribution indicates that the flame wars here are, indeed, destroying the community.

But here is a true fact that must not be missed - there is one person here who believes he is right all the time - and one person here who keeps asserting that Bellingcat is Right all the time, because he has never found a single fault in anything they have produced - and he has never once even raised a suspicion, possibility or a skeptical view on a single Factoid in their arsenal of claims directed against all things Russia. He then proceeds for months and years on end to castigate ridicule and demand proof from anyone and everyone who would dare posit a different Opinion - then repeatedly challenges them to chnage their opinions and agree with him and Bellingcat.

Give it a rest.  Rob (inappropriately) refers to you as a Russian troll, and you respond with paragraphs of character assassination.  There's dramatic asymmetry here, and it's not in your favor.

Rob has contributed many posts of value on the ice science side of the forum.  Can you say the same?

[oren]

Lurk, just to let you know you are much more convincing when you write in a less confrontational and less insulting style.
I should clarify I do not support Rob's posts in this thread, he is highly polarized and polarizing, as are most of the thread regulars (all others avoid coming here I guess). His flame wars with Terry started a long time before your arrival, and were part of what drove me away after some early visits.
My main problem in the politics section is indeed that there is no single truth, only opinions. I find that uninteresting, as my hobby and my main reason coming here is science, where a single truth typically wins over the various opinions. I feel that even where there is truth (in specific news items) it gets distorted by the flame wars, so I'd rather read my local paper for a quick summary of new developments, rather than the thousands of posts here over nothing. This is unlike other ASIF threads, which always provide better and earlier information compared to the same paper.
With that, I apologize for taking this thread off-topic, and will attempt to sign off. 

[Rob Dekker]

I caused quite a stir with my comments, it looks like.

I have three comments to make.

First off I called the twitter poster that Neven brought up (Elena Evdokimova) a "Russian troll". Not Lurk. Read the only four short comments I made, starting here, and you will see that I didn't issue any ad hominem to Lurk :
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1974.msg173480.html#msg173480

Second, regarding my comment "I'm not sure what litesong said here" after Neven censored him was because Neven said he was not censoring the political threads.
So I wondered how horrendous litesong's statements must have been, especially since Lurk seems to be able to get away with quite a bit of abuse. And still does.

Since the main issue on this thread appears to be between Lurk and me, I have a suggestion which should seriously reduce unnecessarily distractions on these threads :

BOTH Lurk and me ignore each other completely.

That means, we do NOT respond to each other's comments AT ALL. Not even a hint.

DEAL, Lurk ?

[edit] Of course, Neven be the moderator. That would solve the issue of Neven having to moderate the entire forum or the political threads. He would only need to moderate if there is any interaction between Lurk and me. Is that reasonable, Neven ?

[Neven]

Second, regarding my comment "I'm not sure what litesong said here" after Neven censored him was because Neven said he was not censoring the political threads.
So I wondered how horrendous litesong's statements must have been, especially since Lurk seems to be able to get away with quite a bit of abuse. And still does.

Yes, but Lurk explains very well where he's coming from and why he is confrontational. Litesong only posts semi-funny one-liners in some kind of (African-American?) vernacular, in other words, insults for the sake of insults. And he causes trouble in other parts of the ASIF as well, almost making me suspect he's actually a climate risk denier playing the 'librul'. That's pretty horrendous.

Since the main issue on this thread appears to be between Lurk and me, I have a suggestion which should seriously reduce unnecessarily distractions on these threads :

BOTH Lurk and me ignore each other completely.

That means, we do NOT respond to each other's comments AT ALL. Not even a hint.

DEAL, Lurk ?

[edit] Of course, Neven be the moderator. That would solve the issue of Neven having to moderate the entire forum or the political threads. He would only need to moderate if there is any interaction between Lurk and me. Is that reasonable, Neven ?

I'd prefer it if you keep on going like this, but know when to lay down arms again for the next clash. That would be much more interesting, because I quite enjoy the clash of ideas/interpretations in itself. It's the endless bickering and going around in circles that are tiresome.

If you want to ignore each other, that's up to you. I'm not going to moderate that or keep scores.

Please forgive me for continuing off-topic.  But Neven, I think you discount the product of your labors too easily.  I get worked up about bad behavior on these threads because I think ASIF is a jewel, a small but important piece of the work that needs to be done to salvage the planet and our species. Flame wars, even on one corner, corrode the product and make it less useful, less effective.

Well, in that case, just follow sidd's advice. I couldn't control the ASIF, even if I wanted to. I just created the conditions for it, but its (relative) success has been its own doing. Apparently there's a niche.

As an organism, it follows its own stages of development. I'm expecting a bell curve, which is what these Internet organisms usually follow (think of The Oil Drum), but don't know where we are on the curve. Enthusiasm has lessened somewhat and pageviews have gone down somewhat, but I think this mostly has to do with the fact that melting seasons since 2012 have been relatively 'boring' (2016 perhaps being the exception).

As for the on-topic point you made, I have to disagree.  US-Russia relations are important, but a return to Cold War tensions isn't necessarily an unacceptable outcome.  Trump may be stupid enough to push his Big Button, but I'm quite confident Putin isn't.  I do think Putin has orchestrated a string of absolutely outrageous actions.  This shouldn't and wouldn't lead to a nuclear war or even conventional war, just sanctions. 

Meanwhile, don't forget that Russia's economy is built on extracting fossil fuels.  Sanctions are not the most even-handed way to retard fossil fuel extraction across the globe, but they seem to be one reasonably effective approach.

If climate change is the largest risk the planet faces, poor relations and consequent sanctions serve the net good.

You may have a point. The tariff stuff for instance puts a bit of a brake on unbridled consumerism, but I'm not sure what the long-term effects will be. And it isn't nearly enough, of course, as an indirect measure to mitigate AGW (for that, we need direct measures). But in itself they're not necessarily bad.

Sanctions are a step further. Okay, let's assume things don't deteriorate to the point where there's an all-out war. It still leads to heavy militarisation, a giant misallocation of resources, and it's an endless source for extremist groups on both sides to tighten their grip on the respective populations, increasing the chances of armed conflict. AGW? The enemy is at the gates!

This isn't about justice. Whatever it is that Putin has done (hard to tell, as he seems to get blamed for everything nowadays), is peanuts. This is all about power and influence, not about democracy or human rights, and thus it can't have a positive outcome for AGW, because the basis of solving AGW is justice, human rights and cooperation.

Never mind the fact that all this stuff distracts so much from the real problems we should worry about. Which is why things like Russiagate, Syria and the Skripal case are being pushed so hard and hyped up. They're squirrels to keep us all distracted and divided, so that the system can continue to grow the mountains of concentrated wealth.

Trump is 100% right when he says that everyone has made mistakes, and that both countries should try to rebuild their relationship (and I don't care whether he says it because of some pee-pee tape). I'm sure he's not saying it to solve any problems like AGW, as he is part of the swamp, but it may provide a basis for his successor to build on.

[SteveMDFP]

you prove that you do not get it and do not care one bit about my position here.
<snipped screenfuls of off-topic commentary>

This is a public forum.
The topic of this thread is Russia.
An occasional off-topic comment is inevitable in such a forum.
Consideration of the entire audience demands off-topic comments to be brief, if posted at all.
We deal with stated facts, opinions, and analysis. 
Long-winded off-topic essays are both rude to the audience and counterproductive to making real contributions to a public forum.

[oren]

It's actually YOU Oren who is out of line here, not me. I am not going to wear it. I am not the problem here, I am the one standing up against the Problem here by calling a spade a spade. I am not going to back down, you are! Once you come to your senses (?). 

As it seems silence may sometimes be construed as agreement in these parts, let me just add: I still think you were out of line in terms of acceptable posting limits, even though I understand your explanation/reasoning for it. Just my personal opinion of course, which I have sometimes chosen to express in regard to various posters (quite a few tbh), and probably will again.

[Rob Dekker]

After all the distractions, it's time to return to the subject of this thread : Russia.
Let me address the issues that fell between the cracks in first-come-first-serve-order.

First one is that Russian Defense Ministry press-conference about MH17 from last week. Here it is again :



Now, there are two parts to this press conference.

The first 12 minutes presents documents regarding the missile that shot down MH17. In particular, there is one "top-secret" document that cannot leave Russia, which shows some numbers that they say shows that the missile was shipped to Ukraine in 1986, suggesting that Ukraine launched the missile.

Now let's think about that for a second.

Four years of evidence collecting by the JIT and the Dutch Safety Board, and yes, instrumental reports from countless video and picture evidence analyzed by open source journalists like Bellingcat, which ALL suggest that the missile system was brought in from the 53rd Brigade in Kursk, and launched from a Russian controlled field south of Snizhne, and the only thing the Russians present in return is a page of a book which is supposedly "top secret" and cannot leave Russia.

Russia understands that to be credible, they would have to not just present their "top-secret" document putting the blame on Ukraine, but they also would have to debunk ALL the evidence that the JIT and the Dutch Safety Board presented. That's where the remainder of the video comes in, and I'd like to show how pathetic the Russian argument is.

At 12:30 they claim that a highly qualified top Russian experts found that the videos that the JIT presented are falsified.

As their first exhibit, they show the JIT video of the BUK (which was geo-located to be in Donetsk).
At 13:38 they show that the linear perspective lines of the BUK don't end up on the horizon, but end up below it. That they claim is proof that the video was falsified.

However, a much easier explanation is that the BUK was not 'level' on the low-loader.
The following picture is also from Donetsk, geo-located a few streets away from the video location. taken a few hours before the video, and it clearly shows that the BUK is titling forward, because the front wheel is sitting in a dip in the low loader :



Source of the image :
https://www.politie.nl/binaries/standaard/content/gallery/politie/onderwerpen/themas/mh17_buk-telar_onbewerkt-768x768.jpg

That explains not just why the the Russian argument is bogus, but it also shows that the Russians would have to explain and debunk more forensic evidence than just a few videos.

Second exhibit is a video that was geo-located to Makiivka.
At 15:25 they seem to think that the top of the truck cabin "disappears" contrary to some white surfaces on the side, when it drives through a shadow, and they say that is an indication that the video is fabricated.

However, there is a very simple explanation for this effect : The top of the truck cabin is not white as they seem to suggest, but a shiny black cover that is supposed to reflect sunlight, which of course turns dark when they drive through a shadow. You can see that clearly in this close up picture of the truck cabin :



Source of the image :
http://www.whathappenedtoflightmh17.com/recently-discovered-video-clearly-shows-volvo-truck-and-lowloader-with-phonenumber-on-yellow-sign/

Not to mention that this video from Makiivka coincided with a satellite picture taken at almost the same time, which you can actually see on Google Earth if you were willing to check the truth !
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2016/06/22/new-google-earth-satellite-update-confirms-presence-of-buk-in-eastern-ukraine/

And then the Russians don't even address the implication of their statement (of the missile shipment to Ukraine) on launch location.

Should I could go on ?

It should be clear by now that the Russian MoD is grasping at straws in trying to find any, ANY sort of argument, no matter how easy to debunk, against the massive amount of evidence that the forensic experts from the MH17 JIT and the Dutch Safety Board have collected, verified and presented. That MH17 was shot down by a BUK missile system from the 53rd brigade from Kursk, and launched from a Russian controlled field just south of Snizhne. Just like Bellingcat already concluded in September 2014.

Neven said :

So, again, my problem with Bellingcat is its obvious bias, and thus the way the evidence is framed. It is not science.

Please tell me where is the "bias" and "the way the evidence is framed" in Bellingcat's and others geo-location and timing of these (and many other) pictures and videos, and satellite images, of this BUK from the 53rd brigade in Kursk driving through Russian controlled Eastern Ukraine ?

[litesong]

....to Damascus Govt of an S-300 air defense system........China Turkey Iran and others moving ahead with S400 air defense systems........

Murderous, torturerous perp putin's russia already made money on the S-200 system....... that helped one of its despotic dictator allies shoot down a russian plane. Yes, that's right. russia made money on a russian machine that shot its own russian plane down. Good they have enough sense NOT to deploy any more S-200 systems. Propaganda holds that the S-400 & the S-500 are very good anti-aircraft systems & U.S. F-22's & F-35's are now in danger. For sure, the anti-aircraft systems readily could target & eliminate russian SU-57's & communist chinese J-20's, if they wanted to do a repeat treat of the Syrian bought russian S-200 fiasco. Suspect russia won't let any russian ally operate the S-400 & S-500 systems.   

[Rob Dekker]

As the founder of a forum which prides itself on scientific thinking and evidence based reasoning you  should ENCOURAGE efforts like Bellingcat and open source journalism, instead of actively smearing Eliot Higgins and allowing these threads to turn into a fact-free Russian propaganda outlet.

I don't know what this forum prides itself on, but I actually do encourage independent, alternative journalism. Which brings me back to my problem with Bellingcat: The driving forces behind them associate themselves with neocon, war-mongering, fracking-pushing think tanks.

In principle, an initiative like Bellingcat is fantastic. In practice, people like Higgins and Toler screw it up by being so openly biased. If this weren't so, I wouldn't even pay attention to it, but to me this looks like a ploy by TPTB to circumvent the distrust people have for mainstream media (rightfully so). If it isn't some form of astroturfing, it's very close to it.

The bolded parts are witness of an extremely biased opinion on your part.
I truly do not understand your problem with Bellingcat and Eliot Higgins in particular.

For example, without Bellingcat's fact-checking work, we would know virtually nothing about MH17, and Russian lies and conspiracy theories (amplified by the propornot.com web sites) about this atrocity would have dominated on internet for years.

There is a peaceful and truth-finding open-source journalism revolution going on, and you are actively fighting against it. Why, Neven ? Why ?



[edit] I reposted this comment here in the "good or bad journalism" thread, since it is about the "open source" journalism revolution, and not specific to Russia. Applies to ANY other subject that Bellingcat discussed (chemical weapons use in Syria, Drug cartels in Mexico, corruption in Ukraine, Scottish Limited Partnerships and money laundering, US weapons use in Yemen etc etc).

Thus it seems more applicable there and I suggest we discuss it there.

[Rob Dekker]

Russia's military unintelligence
Why the Russian intelligence agencies keep failing abroad.

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/russia-military-unintelligence-180918183734200.html

[litesong]

.... American Taxpayer has really deep pockets.....

Yeah, American weapons are 30% more costly than russian gear & communist chinese gear. American weapons work. russian gear & communist chinese gear LOOK like american weapons knock-offs, but havin' their prop-lums, tho.... Even when russia & communist china steal american info, the russians & communist chinese still can't get it aworkin' right.
Lurch can't type fast enough to keep up with russian & chinese communists mistakes. 

[litesong]

But the article was talking about the F-16 abruptly altering it's course, and so the story then makes perfect sense.

In Moscow, Lurch & his fellow propagandists busily work to walk back their given information. But that isn't what was said:
All the action involved the anti-aircraft missile.
"the Syrian anti-air missile was, in fact, targeting an Israeli F-16 jet before it abruptly altered its course and eventually hit the Russian aircraft......an Israeli jet was de facto using the larger Il-20 as a cover....."
Yeah, Lurch said it & all the info boys behind Lurch & talking in his ear, can't change the interpretation fast enough to change the report.
Yeah, the F-16 wasn't using the russian intelligence aircraft for cover, when the syrian missile went off course & eventually hit the russian intelligence craft. Lurch lurches wildly out-of-control..... again.   

[Rob Dekker]

Salisbury suspects: Russian security services chase for 'leaks' after series of intelligence blunders

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/salisbury-attack-russia-sergei-skripal-security-fsb-leaks-black-market-petrov-bashirov-a8554521.html

The three weeks since Britain identified the men suspected of poisoning former double agent Sergei Skripal have been miserable ones for Russia’s intelligence agencies.

First came the RT interview and Alexander Petrov and Roman Boshirov’s much-ridiculed cover story. Few in Russia, let alone the west, believed the fable of two supposedly gay men, drawn to a sleepy English town by a gothic cathedral and its 123m spire.



Things got worse once open-source sleuths like Bellingcat and The Insider got to work. Their investigations revealed that the classified passport details of the two men led directly back to the country’s military intelligence service (GRU). What was more, several dozen GRU agents appeared to been issued passports in numerical sequence. It was enough to check travel records to identify probable intelligence officers. Some publications have already begun to do so, with largely unclear legal consequences.

On Tuesday, however, Russia’s security agency, the FSB, appeared to be making a belated effort to limit the fallout. According to the Rosbalt information agency, agents had begun to conduct urgent searches at the Interior Ministry – the source, they believe, of the passport information that found its way to Bellingcat.

Bellingcat’s founder Eliot Higgins told The Independent that the reaction “spoke to the authenticity of the material” they had published.

“Russian officials try to attack Bellingcat’s work publicly, but privately it appears they’re taking it far more seriously,” he said.

Immigration and passport data have always been fairly easy to access illicitly from vendors at certain city markets or via online agencies. One detective agency, still accessible online at the time of writing, offers data from the official Rospasport (passport) and Peremescheniye (cross-border travel) databases. Detailed phone records are available to those even more curious. Prices range from 5,000 to 40,000 roubles (£58 to £462), with discounts of up to 40 per cent for “especially loyal customers”.

[Hefaistos]

I was so keen to get the job in the prison office.

Are you in a gulag? The russian guards gave u a stalin-styled typewriter to spread putin propaganda poop. Will they knock a few months off your prison term? After typing so much ineffective prop poop, they'll probably ADD to your sentence.
lenin.....stalin.....putin..... ninny...linny...& tinny.

Litesong, how do you see your role on the ASIF?

[Hefaistos]

Litesong, how do you see your role on the ASIF?

As an apologist & "excusist" for putin propagandists & cheerleader for Lurch(Lurk), we understand your multi roles on political threads of ASIF". Quotes by hefaistos:
1) This allegation of Russian 'lying'..... Russians feel that they are not at all guilty, and in a kind of defensive manner they point to various alternative hypotheses (Kelly Ann Conway's, alternate facts & another connection between putin & "don'T rump" ). They just want to be helpful, but Western propaganda machine (putin propaganda term, for sure) calls it 'lying'.
I think that this is more of a feature of what might be called a russian mindset, to present "all kinds of competing theories" (more connections between putin & "don'T rump"), more or (most certainly) less plausible, and then let the 'best' hypothesis win.
///////
In your secondary cheerleading role we have the following quote:
2) "Very good post, summing up the argument.
Thanks Lurk(alias, Lurch)"
////////
Thank you for accurately delineating your roles on ASIF political theads. Do you have the cell (can't call it a sleeper cell) in Moscow, next to Lurch? Your words are very like a....."Western russia propaganda machine" or did putin send you both to siberia?
lenin.....stalin.....putin..... ninny...linny...& tinny.

You didn't even try to answer my question, why?
I'm a scientist (Ph.D at Stockholm university), and I just happen to have a critical mindset. Furthermore, I was living 8 years in Russia, running a business there, I was numerous times on Crimea, etc. I know Russia, I talk fluent Russian.
I'm fascinated by the amount of anti-russian propaganda spread by MSM, and all its apologists, e.g. you, litesong.
What's troubling with your postings on the 'Rest' threads is that you seem to have nothing to contribute to the discussion, you only try to destroy it. You try to be funny, but you aren't. I think you ought to be ousted from here.

[sidd]

Re: " I think you ought to be ousted from here."

Please take this to a more appropriate thread, say "Forum Decorum" or "Posting guidelines" or somesuch.

sidd

[Rob Dekker]

Bellingcat is on a roll these days.

After first pointing out irregularities in the passports of the Salisbury Novichok suspects which links them to the GRU
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/09/14/skripal-poisoning-suspects-passport-data-shows-link-security-services/
they tracked down the border crossings of these supposed tourists :
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/09/20/skripal-suspects-confirmed-gru-operatives-prior-european-operations-disclosed/
which shows these two guys globe trotting through western Europe and traveling from Kazachstan to Israel overland.

Maybe they were looking for more cathedrals ?

Now, Bellingcat has found the true identity of at least one of the Skripal case suspects :

Skripal Suspect Boshirov Identified as GRU Colonel Anatoliy Chepiga.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/09/26/skripal-suspect-boshirov-identified-gru-colonel-anatoliy-chepiga/

Bellingcat has been able to confirm the actual identity of one of the two officers. The suspect using the cover identity of “Ruslan Boshirov” is in fact Colonel Anatoliy Chepiga, a highly decorated GRU officer bestowed with Russia’s highest state award, Hero of the Russian Federation. Following Bellingcat’s own identification, multiple sources familiar with the person and/or the investigation have confirmed the suspect’s identity.

This finding eliminates any remaining doubt that the two suspects in the Novichok poisonings were in fact Russian officers operating on a clandestine government mission.

Russia of course denies everything :

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova dismissed the new claims, saying there was no evidence.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45656004

Sure, that easy to state.

But it would be a lot more convincing if Russia could let Colonel Anatoliy Chepiga appear in public, so that he can state his side of the story. Maybe Colonel Anatoliy Chepiga can then also explain why, even though he was awarded the "Hero of the Russian Federation" award, that there are no pictures of him.

[TerryM]

Craig Murray - you may remember him from his stint as a British Ambassador - takes another swing at our friends over at Bellingcat.

He finds the idea that any intelligence service would use passport sequences so easily identified to be laughable, but only slightly more laughable than Bellingcat's presumption that their own audience is so brain dead that they would actually believe such drivel.

Eliot couldn't differentiate between modern Russian tanks and rebuilt museum pieces. He insisted that the Russians shot down MH-17, even though the serial numbers prove him wrong. Eliot's been a stooge for Western spooks since he lost his job selling ladies undergarments. When he's right it's an accident.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2018/09/the-incredible-case-of-boshirov-and-petrovs-visas/

The British scenario went from unlikely to impossible to ridiculous as more facts were revealed. It will probably cost May her job - and Boris has already resigned.
Terry

[Rob Dekker]

Craig Murray - you may remember him from his stint as a British Ambassador - takes another swing at our friends over at Bellingcat.

He finds the idea that any intelligence service would use passport sequences so easily identified to be laughable,

Craig Murray seems to have forgotten about Hanlon's razor :

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor

Eliot couldn't differentiate between modern Russian tanks and rebuilt museum pieces.

You are lying through your teeth again, Terry.

He insisted that the Russians shot down MH-17, even though the serial numbers prove him wrong.

Another lie.

You know, Terry, you would come across much more credible if you would actually present some evidence for your increasingly absurd statements.

[Rob Dekker]

Interesting fact about Craig Murray :

He has promoted the idea that Russia is not responsible for the 2018 chemical weapons attack in Salisbury, England.[5][2] Indeed, he has suggested that Israel may be responsible, and on Twitter suggested that the parliamentary group Labour Friends of Israel were involved in a cover-up to attribute blame to Russia.[6][7][8]

and

Murray is fond of using "Zionist" as an indiscriminate insult for his enemies, throwing the label at Christopher Hitchens as well as more obviously pro-Israel writers such as Nick Cohen and Melanie Phillips (this in a blog post celebrating Christopher Hitchens' death).[22][23]

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Craig_Murray

Is that your opinion too, Terry ?

[TerryM]

You are lying through your teeth again, Terry.

I realize that you've had a lot of difficulty defending your arguments recently, but resorting to "You're a liar" is a retort usually reserved for grade school playgrounds. Am I to reply with "NO, YOU'RE THE LIAR" in a shrill high pitched voice?

It's a shame that you hadn't actually followed the Ukraine situation or you would remember the tank misidentification incident that I referenced. That may have been the brouhaha that caused Eliot to change his online name.

As far as the serial numbers on the BUK that hit M-17, that's been discussed earlier on this thread or others. You see it as a conspiracy, I see it as a declaration that no one has disputed. All the Ukrainian Military needs to do is to produce their records, but they haven't.

I suppose you're now accusing me of antisemitism. It's difficult to defend against such a charge, especially since I have no knowledge of how many of my friends might or might not be Jewish. It's just not one of the distinctions I've learned to make.
I bitch about the Israeli Government, but reserve most of my vitriol for the American Government. If that makes me an antisemite in your eyes - I'd advise a visit to an oculist.

Hanlon's razor, and the D-K effect may deflect guilt, but Eliot promotes an ideology with evil as it's intent.
Terry

[Rob Dekker]

You are lying through your teeth again, Terry.

Am I to reply with "NO, YOU'RE THE LIAR" in a shrill high pitched voice?

No Terry. All you have to do is provide evidence for your statement that :

Eliot couldn't differentiate between modern Russian tanks and rebuilt museum pieces.

You can't do that, since it never happened.
It's OK. Just admit it. You just lied.

[NevB]

Bellingcat is on a roll these days.

After first pointing out irregularities in the passports of the Salisbury Novichok suspects which links them to the GRU
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/09/14/skripal-poisoning-suspects-passport-data-shows-link-security-services/
they tracked down the border crossings of these supposed tourists :
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/09/20/skripal-suspects-confirmed-gru-operatives-prior-european-operations-disclosed/
which shows these two guys globe trotting through western Europe and traveling from Kazachstan to Israel overland.

Maybe they were looking for more cathedrals ?

This has now made it to the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/sep/27/we-got-really-lucky-novichok-suspects-identities-revealed-bellingcat

The story now is that one of the two Russian Cathedral tourists that just happened to be walking by the Skripal's flat when they were poisoned also has an identical twin that works for the GRU?

Isn't it time to admit that Putin's Russia shot down MH17, poisoned Alexander Litvinenko and the Skripals and runs propaganda operations to deny responsibility for these operations.

[TerryM]

Isn't it time to admit that Putin's Russia shot down MH17, poisoned Alexander Litvinenko and the Skripals and runs propaganda operations to deny responsibility for these operations.

If we were to accept Eliot at his word, wouldn't a reasonable person conclude that the fortunes spent by MI5, MI6, the CIA, the FBI, the NSA. and the rest of the West's vaunted spy services has been a total waste?


To protect the West, we can fire all these "intelligence" agents, generally recruited from the top universities, and replace them with high school graduates who are otherwise unemployable.
Forget the savings in personnel and think of the hardware we'll be able to eliminate. A decent internet game system operated over standard residential broadband is all the computing power we need - and we can eliminate clerical help by providing our new agent's mothers with a small stipend.


No need to pay obese professors millions of dollars when these guy's will crowd source what minimal financing they require.


Think of the $B saved in travel expenses. Our new agents don't even need to leave their mothers basements!
Christopher Steele, Pablo Miller, Skripal, and his successors will be pissed off, but our new teams of BellingCaters will be able to track them in their spare time.
sarc/


Wake me up when Eliot finds Jimmy Hoffa.
Terry

[SteveMDFP]

Isn't it time to admit that Putin's Russia shot down MH17, poisoned Alexander Litvinenko and the Skripals and runs propaganda operations to deny responsibility for these operations.

This would only be plausible if Russia were an autocratic regime, headed by a former KGB agent.

[Rob Dekker]

Isn't it time to admit that Putin's Russia shot down MH17, poisoned Alexander Litvinenko and the Skripals and runs propaganda operations to deny responsibility for these operations.

If we were to accept Eliot at his word,...

I cut you off right there Terry, since you still have a lie to address :

Eliot couldn't differentiate between modern Russian tanks and rebuilt museum pieces.

Provide a link or some evidence for this statement before you wonder into even more unsubstantiated personal accusations against Eliot Higgins.

I've been debating climate science deniers for more than 10 years now, but NEVER have I encountered anyone so in denial that they simply double down after being caught in a lie red handed. They typically back off for at least a little while.

[Rob Dekker]

This has now made it to the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/sep/27/we-got-really-lucky-novichok-suspects-identities-revealed-bellingcat

The story now is that one of the two Russian Cathedral tourists that just happened to be walking by the Skripal's flat when they were poisoned also has an identical twin that works for the GRU?

Sure, if that is what you want to believe.

Look. All Russia has to do is to get both men in a room in front of a camera. That will prove Bellingcat wrong.

I'm not going to hold my breath for that to happen.

Isn't it time to admit that Putin's Russia shot down MH17, poisoned Alexander Litvinenko and the Skripals and runs propaganda operations to deny responsibility for these operations.

It's much worse than that.

[TerryM]

My dear Rob


Someone posting about something you are unaware of doesn't make them a liar - it just makes you unaware.


You presented yourself as someone who followed he Ukrainian situation as it was unfolding, but you've never offered anything that wasn't available from "historic" coverage.
I'm incredulous that anyone who actually was following things on a day by day basis could have missed the entire tank fracas, and Eliot's ridiculous position. Perhaps you took an extended vacation and were separated from the internet for the entire time?


Are you done with the antisemitism accusations?
Don't want to discuss the BUK serial numbers found within the wreckage of MH-17?


How about Brave Ukrainians marching under the Swastika screaming "Jump if you're not Russian" and "Death to the Russians" - as they searched out their fellow Ukrainian citizens while brandishing their knives?
We could discuss the Odessa Massacre, but I'm not convinced you could add anything more to that discussion than you can to a discussion about Eliot's misidentification of Soviet era tanks.


You just weren't paying attention as it was occurring.
Terry

[Rob Dekker]

Terry, you are one of a kind. Denial is not just a river in Egypt, you know.

After three tries, you still did not provide any evidence for your first lie :

Eliot couldn't differentiate between modern Russian tanks and rebuilt museum pieces.

Zip. Nada. Nothing from you.

Let alone the other lies that you just ushered in your latest post (most of which we already discussed before), for which neither then nor now you provided any evidence. Nothing at all. You just keep on making stuff up out of thin air.

Just as an example, where is your evidence that "Brave Ukrainians marching under the Swastika screaming "Jump if you're not Russian" and "Death to the Russians" - as they searched out their fellow Ukrainian citizens while brandishing their knives?"

You know, anything (video, audio, picture or something) that sustains that statement ?

Keep on going, Terry. I'm sure there are some here that really want to believe your lies and will eat it as hot cake.

[TerryM]

Rob
Since you aren't familiar with the incident what new information could you possibly bring to the table?


Bellingcat (understandably) doesn't discuss it, and consequently you are unaware that it ever took place.
Does this indicate that everything you know of the Ukrainian situation you learned at Eliot's knee?
I actually devoted a few years trying to uncover what truth was coming out of the Ukraine. What I found shocked me, and it wasn't because the MSM was telling the truth.
 
There were actually first hand accounts during and post coup. A plurality of these disagreed with the conclusions that Eliot was reaching from the bowels of his mother's basement. What a surprise!
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a one man show operating from a flat over a rug merchant's shop in Coventry is another font of disinformation that the MSM insists on quoting. Perhaps you'll wish to broaden your Russia phobic sources?


Eliot has become a mouthpiece for The Atlantic Council, a product of the MIC whose primary objective is to increase their profits by inflaming hostilities around the world. I see this as unproductive at best. Pax Americana has proven to be lacking in Pax.


Terry

[Rob Dekker]

Rob
Since you aren't familiar with the incident what new information could you possibly bring to the table?

Terry, it seems YOU need to bring some information to the table after all your lies.

For example, YOU need to show some evidence for your statement that :

Eliot couldn't differentiate between modern Russian tanks and rebuilt museum pieces.

and YOU need to show some evidence for your statement that :

"Brave Ukrainians marching under the Swastika screaming "Jump if you're not Russian" and "Death to the Russians" - as they searched out their fellow Ukrainian citizens while brandishing their knives?"

In absence of evidence of any of your increasingly absurd statements, your lies are blatantly obvious. Why do you keep making stuff up out of thin air ?

[Neven]

Craig Murray has a piece on the passport stuff, and shows what non-binary thinking looks like:

My view of the most likely explanation on presently available evidence is this:

Boshirov is not Boshirov, and the Russian Government are lying.
Boshirov is not Chepiga, and Bellingcat are lying.
The whole Skripal novichok story still does not hang together, and the British government are lying.

The whole piece is well worth reading, because it explains yet again what the problem with Bellingcat is.

Eliot has become a mouthpiece for The Atlantic Council, a product of the MIC whose primary objective is to increase their profits by inflaming hostilities around the world. I see this as unproductive at best. Pax Americana has proven to be lacking in Pax.

This is the core of my criticism of Higgins (and I really wish it weren't so, because the idea of open-source journalism, ie independent, critical and truly 'open source', is great). I'll write some more on this in a reply to Rob, but it will basically come down to: What do you think of Higgins' ties to the Atlantic Council? Is the Atlantic Council a bona fide organisation that wishes to promote peace and the interests of the 99%?

In my view it isn't, but I may be wrong.

[Rob Dekker]

Neven,

Regarding Craig Murray, I posted before :

He has promoted the idea that Russia is not responsible for the 2018 chemical weapons attack in Salisbury, England.[5][2] Indeed, he has suggested that Israel may be responsible, and on Twitter suggested that the parliamentary group Labour Friends of Israel were involved in a cover-up to attribute blame to Russia.[6][7][8]

and

Murray is fond of using "Zionist" as an indiscriminate insult for his enemies, throwing the label at Christopher Hitchens as well as more obviously pro-Israel writers such as Nick Cohen and Melanie Phillips (this in a blog post celebrating Christopher Hitchens' death).[22][23]

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Craig_Murray

Is that your opinion too, Neven ?

Regarding the Atlantic Counsel, Neven said :

What do you think of Higgins' ties to the Atlantic Council? Is the Atlantic Council a bona fide organisation that wishes to promote peace and the interests of the 99%?

I don't know much about the Atlantic Council, but I have no reason to doubt that they are committed to finding truth in the fog of war. That's why they started DFRlab and other great open-source initiatives.

Do you have a problem with the Atlantic Council ? And if so, what is it ?

[Neven]

What is YOUR problem with the Atlantic Council ?

They are the propaganda arm of the military-industrial complex, pushing war to sell weapons. But of course, I could be wrong that. Or I'm right, but they are doing good work, because the Russians/Iranians/enemy du jour must be destroyed.

[Rob Dekker]

What is YOUR problem with the Atlantic Council ?

They are the propaganda arm of the military-industrial complex, pushing war to sell weapons. But of course, I could be wrong that. Or I'm right, but they are doing good work, because the Russians/Iranians/enemy du jour must be destroyed.

Mmm. Regarding "They are the propaganda arm of the military-industrial complex, pushing war to sell weapons" do you have any evidence of that ?

And regarding " because the Russians/Iranians/enemy du jour must be destroyed." do you have any evidence of that or is it just your opinion ?

[Rob Dekker]

And Neven, if you can (Terry obviously couldn't) can you please answer if your share Craig Murray's opinion that Israel is responsible for the Skripal poisoning ?

[Rob Dekker]

Neven, DFR lab just issued a report here :

Report on mass atrocites in the Assad regime capture of Eastern Ghouta

http://www.publications.atlanticcouncil.org/breakingghouta/

6 years of siege, broken by 3 months of bombardments, at least 25 incendiary weapon attacks, 11 cluster ammunition and 7 chemical attacks. 16,934 conventional attacks in 49 days.

Half a million dead, 5 million left the country, 6 million internally displaced.

Is that all part of Russia's plan for peace in Syria ? Or is that part of Russia/Syria's military-industrial complex pushing war to sell weapons ?

You tell me.

[Neven]

Is that all part of Russia's plan for peace in Syria ? Or is that part of Russia/Syria's military-industrial complex pushing war to sell weapons ?

You tell me.

I'll tell you. If I concede this point (which is the easiest thing in the world), does that automatically mean that I have to approve of the US supporting and financing 'moderate rebels', in other words, for having an agenda that both sells lots of weapons and strengthens the Empire's geopolitical position in the Middle East (double whammy), while colluding with Saudi Arabia and Israel?

Is this my binary choice? Or can I be against both?

I've witnessed the war in Yugoslavia up close. It's going to take a lot more to force me to pick sides, and thus play into the hands of those that seek power and money, by riling up the masses with propaganda.

To get back on topic again: Bellingcat has clearly picked sides, given their ties to the Atlantic Council.

[litesong]

..... propaganda arm of the military-industrial complex, pushing war to sell weapons.

Well warn warpaths of propaganda by any side will have their greatest blaze & ultimate tragedy, when thermo-nuclear bombs ignite over cities of the world. These deeply-cut, prop paths are reminiscent of some horse packing mountain trails two to three feet deep. Traveled before, these black boulevards were preceded by argued necessity to use bows & millions of arrows, siege engines, machine guns, fire bombs on cities, germ warfare, & the older cousin of nuclear bombs, atomic weapons. But, the deepest cut avenues won't be built by horse flesh energy, but by the energy of the sun, split, dredged & illuminated to the depths of Hell.   

[Neven]

Okay, I'll let that one stand, even though it's nonsensical.

[litesong]

They are the propaganda arm of the military-industrial complex, pushing war to sell weapons.

Stating such in some gatherings of western society have gained lots of points, ever since Pres. Dwight Eisenhower's comments. However, putin's russia, communist china, & other countries ruled by dictators, contain no grounds that would be fertile to your argument. The leaders of these countries love their military-industrial complexes, as signs of nationalistic strength. And so goes the hemmed in, suppressed opinions of those in the countries, of people trying to stay out of prisons.

[sidd]

Re: Atlantic Council

I have posted a reply about the Atlantic Council in another thread.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,617.msg174618.html#msg174618

I thought this thread was about Russia.

sidd