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Rob Dekker

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4700 on: October 04, 2018, 08:53:33 AM »
Quote
As to Rob's questions, it seems irrefutable that the named agent is indeed a hero of the revolution.  The answer to the second question is then left.  Is it the same person identified as the "tourist" who is accused by the Brits of attempted assassination?  I'm inclined to believe so, but I personally haven't studied the question in depth.  If Rob wants to present the evidence, I'd be moderately interested in reading it.

There are many things I could say in reply to Rob's questions, but it's not going to get us anywhere. So, instead I'm saying 'yes' to everything to see where it leads us. Yes, Russia shot down MH17 because of a mistake or some devious plot to blame Ukraine or some such. Yes, Russia poisoned Skripal to set an example to Russian spies everywhere. Yes, Russia lets Assad use chemical weapons to more easily win the war. All of this has been consciously ordered by Putin.

Now what?

Maybe at some point you should reply to my (2) questions, rather than assuming it's not going to get us anywhere.

But regarding you statement to say 'yes' to all, if you would also include Russia's illegal occupation of Georgia, it's illegal annexation of Crimea, it's illegal invasion of Ukraine, and the war crimes committed there (targeting civilians and then blaming Ukraine for it) that has significant implications.

For starters, you would have to totally reverse your opinion about Bellingcat, since they were spot-on, and their critics (including you) were wrong. Are you willing to do that ? And are you willing to apologize for your extremely negative comments about Bellingcat ?

Secondly, you would have to admit that Russia has been feeding us lies, and more lies, and fake theories, and fake stories, and hypocritically blaming others for the things they did wrong. And they did so using a their state media (like RT) but also a wide network of pro-Russian web sites, some of which summarized on the propornot.com list.

And you would then have to admit that on this very forum, there are many people who are spreading such Russian lies and propaganda untamed and 24/7.

And also, under your 'yes' scenario, Putin is a war criminal who should be tried in The Hague, just like Milošević, but under much more serious charges, and should be arrested the moment he leaves Russia. Instead, Putin is just schmoozing with his little friends at a wedding party of the FPÖ in your very own Austria.

So, yeah. It's kind of important that we get to the TRUTH about these issues rather than beating around the bush in the lower 3 or 4 layers of the triangle presented above.

Bellingcat presented the evidence that clearly shows that Russia's 53rd brigade provided the BUK missile launcher that downed MH17. Can anyone refute the evidence they presented or not ?
I presented evidence that Colonel Chepiga was awarded the Hero of the Russian Federation. Can anyone refute THAT evidence or not ?

Remember, with evidence-based reasoning, you HAVE TO accept the evidence if you can't refute it. That's the only way to get to know the TRUTH.

Or we can just continue spreading propaganda on this thread as many posters here will undoubtedly continue to do.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2018, 09:09:12 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Neven

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4701 on: October 04, 2018, 10:24:06 AM »
As stated in the snipped comments above, I have put Lurk on moderation. I just want to say that I regret having to do so, because Lurk has IMO a better overview of the world and the problems it's in than most if not all people engaging in these discussions. Unfortunately, he can't keep his passion in check, which clouds his discernment of what is worth discussing/fighting for and what isn't. 
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wili

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4702 on: October 04, 2018, 03:15:25 PM »
Thanks, Neven.

Whatever his particular views (and I do also agree at least with some of them), in my fairly active 15 years of following and posting on various blogs, I have never seen anyone more bullying, threatening and intimidating than Lurk has been on this forum.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Hefaistos

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4703 on: October 04, 2018, 04:49:04 PM »

2) Colonel Chepiga is the same guy as Ruslan Boshirov, who on RT self-admitted that he was the one traveling to Salisbury, and the one that the UK caught on CCTV near Skripal's house.


Regarding your second claim, the only evidence provided is by Bellingcat, it's a photo from an old passport application that they got from their sources in Russia. We can see that the person on the photo resembles Boshirov, and facial recognition software indicate that it might be him with a high likelihood. Leaving the photo resemblance between B and C aside, I have a major reservation:

There is no provinience to that photo of Chepiga, we don't know if it's real, where it actually comes from, if it indeed shows Chepiga. We are just asked to trust Bellingcats sources. This is not open-source journalism, and it's very far from a scientific method. We can't verify the sources.

I'd have much less of a problem to accept the claim made by Bellingcat, if I felt I could trust their method. But I can't, Bellingcat has been accused of manipulating photos, or at least accept manipulated photos as evidence, in connection with eg. MH17. Furthermore, we know that Bellingcat is driven not by an interest to search for the truth, but rather by an interest to create 'truth'. It's an agenda-driven organisation, financed by the Atlantic council/Nato. One of its aims is to feed the media with these stories and get media to accepts the claims made, (and they are quite successful at that).

I hope more evidence will be provided, and that it will be verifiable.

Rob Dekker

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4704 on: October 05, 2018, 04:30:42 AM »
Hefaistos,
You mentioned somewhere that you have a PhD. So I am going about your response in a scientific way. One little step at a time :


2) Colonel Chepiga is the same guy as Ruslan Boshirov, who on RT self-admitted that he was the one traveling to Salisbury, and the one that the UK caught on CCTV near Skripal's house.


Regarding your second claim,

OK. Full stop right there.
You did not address the first claim.
I conveniently summarized the evidence for the first claim right here :
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1974.msg175340.html#msg175340

Do you agree or dispute that Chepiga received the Hero of the Russian Federation award ?

Quote
the only evidence provided is by Bellingcat, it's a photo from an old passport application that they got from their sources in Russia. 

I presume you are referring to this picture of Chepiga (on the left, taken around 2003).
Middle one is from a Boshirov passport from 2009 and on the right is Boshirov picture from the UK.



You forgot the picture posted June 2017 by a guy named Evgeny Stakhovsky right here :
https://ok.ru/profile/475421179769/album/856276858233/856276895865
which shows Chepiga's picture on the wall of Heroes of the Russian Federation.

So your statement is that the only evidence is a picture from Bellingcat is false.

Incidentally, despite the poor resolution, the resemblance between Chepiga and Boshirov is quite stunning, don't you think  ?



Quote
I have a major reservation:
There is no provinience to that photo of Chepiga, we don't know if it's real, where it actually comes from, if it indeed shows Chepiga. We are just asked to trust Bellingcats sources. This is not open-source journalism, and it's very far from a scientific method. We can't verify the sources.

Databases are quite easy to get a hold of if you know where to look :

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/salisbury-attack-russia-sergei-skripal-security-fsb-leaks-black-market-petrov-bashirov-a8554521.html

Quote
Immigration and passport data have always been fairly easy to access illicitly from vendors at certain city markets or via online agencies. One detective agency, still accessible online at the time of writing, offers data from the official Rospasport (passport) and Peremescheniye (cross-border travel) databases. Detailed phone records are available to those even more curious. Prices range from 5,000 to 40,000 roubles (£58 to £462), with discounts of up to 40 per cent for “especially loyal customers”.

So, if Bellingcat's findings from the passport records of Chepiga are made-up, there sure would have been SOMEBODY who would have pulled the REAL Chepiga passport records. That will show Bellingcat wrong.

But instead, nothing but denial out of Russia, including the denial from Peskov that Chepiga even received the Hero of the Russian Federation award.

Incidentally, the fact that the Kremlin now denies Chepiga his Hero of the Russian Federation award is a strong indication that he is the same person as Boshirov...
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Rob Dekker

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4705 on: October 05, 2018, 06:43:25 AM »
Lurk
You're an important voice here. We seem to think alike, and I need all the help I can get.

All the help you can get for what, Terry ?
To cover up for the lies you have been telling on this forum ?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1974.msg174494.html#msg174494

Lurk is a professional, so he knows when to throw somebody like you under the bus as he just did. But I'm sure he will resume his regular vomit of Russian propaganda shortly.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2018, 07:44:31 AM by Rob Dekker »
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4706 on: October 05, 2018, 07:40:59 AM »
Lurk
You're an important voice here. We seem to think alike, and I need all the help I can get.

All the help you can get for what, Terry ?
To cover up for the lies you have been telling on this forum ?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1974.msg174494.html#msg174494

Please.  I've crossed swords lots of times with Terry, have appreciated his stories.  He's not a liar.  He'd admit freely, I think, that he's mistaken from time to time. No point hammering on any isolated statement.

Even if some think others are dupes or disingenuous here, I doubt anyone here is either.  Even our recently departed controversial one.  Of the people in the world we need to oppose, members of this community really aren't among them.

Rob Dekker

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4707 on: October 05, 2018, 07:53:12 AM »
Lurk
You're an important voice here. We seem to think alike, and I need all the help I can get.

All the help you can get for what, Terry ?
To cover up for the lies you have been telling on this forum ?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1974.msg174494.html#msg174494

Please.  I've crossed swords lots of times with Terry, have appreciated his stories.  He's not a liar.  He'd admit freely, I think, that he's mistaken from time to time. No point hammering on any isolated statement.

Huh ?
It would be nice if Terry would admit that his statement that "Eliot couldn't differentiate between modern Russian tanks and rebuilt museum pieces.", was a lie, because so far he hasn't done so.

In fact, he doubled down with the following statement :

"How about Brave Ukrainians marching under the Swastika screaming "Jump if you're not Russian" and "Death to the Russians" - as they searched out their fellow Ukrainian citizens while brandishing their knives?"

Which was also a lie.
Terry never provided any evidence for either of these statements and never apologized.
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oren

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4708 on: October 05, 2018, 08:38:38 AM »
Please.  I've crossed swords lots of times with Terry, have appreciated his stories.  He's not a liar.  He'd admit freely, I think, that he's mistaken from time to time. No point hammering on any isolated statement.

Even if some think others are dupes or disingenuous here, I doubt anyone here is either.  Even our recently departed controversial one.  Of the people in the world we need to oppose, members of this community really aren't among them.
+1. The level of animosity here is way too much. I normally resonate better with Rob's versions over the "pro-Russian" ones, but repeatedly naming Terry a liar is uncalled for.

Regarding these photos, these guys don't look the same to me, but I've always had trouble in face recognition.

Note to self: don't get dragged into this thread, 5000+ replies over nothing.

Rob Dekker

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4709 on: October 05, 2018, 09:23:20 AM »
Oren, there are two parts to your response :

1) Terry's statements and if they were lies or not.
I listed the statements, and noted that Terry did not provide any evidence for them, despite multiple requests to do so. Eliot Higgins never "couldn't differentiate between modern Russian tanks and rebuilt museum pieces.". That statement was just made up by Terry. And neither were ""brave Ukrainians marching under the Swastika screaming "Jump if you're not Russian" and "Death to the Russians" - as they searched out their fellow Ukrainian citizens while brandishing their knives"
That was made up out of thin air too.
There comes a point where you call that lies.

2) Are Boshirov and Chepiga one and the same person or not.
Of course, no matter how many pictures we have, we can never prove that they are the same person. That's the weakness of the scientific method : you can never prove a true statement to be true. You an only prove a false statement to be false if you have enough evidence. In this case only Russia can disprove that statement by putting both of them in the same room in front of a camera.
I'm not going to hold my breath for that to happen..
« Last Edit: October 05, 2018, 09:47:57 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Hefaistos

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4710 on: October 05, 2018, 03:19:34 PM »
Hefaistos,
You mentioned somewhere that you have a PhD. So I am going about your response in a scientific way.

OMG.

Quote from: Rob Dekker

Do you agree or dispute that Chepiga received the Hero of the Russian Federation award ?

If you try to nail the spokesperson (Peskov) for not remembering or not having been given full information at some point of time during a press conference, I think you're just ridiculous, Rob. If there was an official statement on this issue, I'd understand you, but I doubt there is. I'm not gonna waste any time discussing the issue unless you give a link to some official statement, which can then be refuted.

Quote from: Rob Dekker

Incidentally, despite the poor resolution, the resemblance between Chepiga and Boshirov is quite stunning, don't you think  ?

Thanks Rob for demonstrating your 'scientific method' so well! I'm asked to guess who resembles who. This is material for café conversations and Rob gets a FAIL.

Quote
So, if Bellingcat's findings from the passport records of Chepiga are made-up, there sure would have been SOMEBODY who would have pulled the REAL Chepiga passport records. That will show Bellingcat wrong.

Interesting thought, but speculative.

According to internet info, the database was created only in 2007, or maybe even as late as 2014. It remains to be proven if old records from 2003 have been digitilized at all. I doubt it, as there is no apparent reason why big resources should be spent on such a vast effort, scanning literally 100's of millions of papers. Somewhere in the archives there is a paper copy of that application.

Quote
Incidentally, the fact that the Kremlin now denies Chepiga his Hero of the Russian Federation award is a strong indication that he is the same person as Boshirov...

Another demonstration of Rob's 'scientific method', and another FAIL to Rob, as he provides nothing but unfounded speculation.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2018, 03:27:09 PM by Hefaistos »

Rob Dekker

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4711 on: October 06, 2018, 04:48:44 AM »
Hefaistos,
You mentioned somewhere that you have a PhD. So I am going about your response in a scientific way.

OMG.

Quote from: Rob Dekker

Do you agree or dispute that Chepiga received the Hero of the Russian Federation award ?

If you try to nail the spokesperson (Peskov) for not remembering or not having been given full information at some point of time during a press conference, I think you're just ridiculous, Rob. If there was an official statement on this issue, I'd understand you, but I doubt there is. I'm not gonna waste any time discussing the issue unless you give a link to some official statement, which can then be refuted.

I'm not trying to 'nail' anyone, Hefaistos.

I'm just trying get to something we can both agree on.

And I'm doing that by breaking down the problem in smaller and smaller pieces, until we find some common understanding of what is fact and what is not. That's how the scientific method works.

I understand from your response that if  "Chepiga received the Hero of the Russian Federation award" or not is still too 'wide' as a statement, so that you can't agree or dis-agree yet.

So, let me go one level down, to the evidence we collected, and see if we can get some common understanding there.

Here is one piece of evidence :



from this source :
https://ok.ru/profile/475421179769/album/856276858233/856276895865

Let's see if we can agree on something here by asking some questions (which is the first thing we do in the scientific method) :

Do you agree or dispute that this is a picture of a picture of a guy called Chepiga ?
and
Do you agree or dispute that this picture is taken off the wall of Heroes of the Russian Federation at  the Far-Eastern Military Academy (DVOKU ) ?
Do you agree or dispute that this picture is genuine, and not falsified or altered in any way.

If you agree with all this, then we can move one level up in the discussion and the evidence.
If you dispute some of these statements, we can discuss the reason for your disagreement, and find evidence that supports or debunks the statement.

But in order to make any form of progress towards common understanding, you need to answer these questions.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2018, 05:12:39 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Rob Dekker

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4712 on: October 06, 2018, 05:34:23 AM »
This is not just between Hefaistos and me.

I'd like to invite everyone to engage in a genuine discussion of the evidence we have (on any subject related to this thread) and the conclusions we can draw from that.

And in doing so come to a common understanding of the facts and reality.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2018, 06:48:36 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Hefaistos

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4713 on: October 06, 2018, 06:57:16 AM »

And I'm doing that by breaking down the problem in smaller and smaller pieces, until we find some common understanding of what is fact and what is not. That's how the scientific method works.

You totally don't know anything about scientific method if you say it's about breaking problems down in smaller and smaller pieces. Another Fail for Rob.

Wikipedia on the principles of the scientific method: "It involves careful observation, which includes rigorous skepticism about what is observed, given that cognitive assumptions about how the world works, influence how one interprets a percept. It involves formulating hypotheses, via induction, based on such observations; experimental and measurement-based testing of deductions drawn from the hypotheses; and refinement (or elimination) of the hypotheses based on the experimental findings. These are principles of the scientific method"

Quote
Do you agree or dispute that this is a picture of a picture of a guy called Chepiga ?
and
Do you agree or dispute that this picture is taken off the wall of Heroes of the Russian Federation at  the Far-Eastern Military Academy (DVOKU ) ?
Do you agree or dispute that this picture is genuine, and not falsified or altered in any way.
If you agree with all this, then we can move one level up in the discussion and the evidence.
If you dispute some of these statements, we can discuss the reason for your disagreement, and find evidence that supports or debunks the statement.

Cognitive assumptions about how the world works, influence how one interprets a percept: Who came up with the passport application from this Chepiga  guy? We don't know, we cannot verify that it's a real photo of Chepiga, we are just asked to believe what Bellingcat claims.

rigorous skepticism about what is observed
Even if that photo on the wall is genuine, it's probably too blurry to use in facial recognition. The photo in the passport application is ok for processing, but we don't know the provinence.
I enjoy rigorous skepticism about what is observed as I classify Bellingcat as a propaganda organisation, due to its history of presenting false photo and video evidence, and due to it's financing from the Atlantic council, which is a propaganda organisation: "Funding comes from dozens of foreign governments and also individual vested interests. They include arms makers Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Boeing, plus wealthy private backers such as Ukraine’s Viktor Pinchuk and Saudi billionaire Bahaa Hariri. State institutions who plough in funds vary from the National Endowment for Democracy to the British Foreign Office and the US Army itself."

Yes, you can formulate a hypothesis built on 1-2 photos that Borishov is the GRU curnel Chepiga. However, in this case, it's not possible to get any further with the little amount of evidence presented so far, and where the only photo that has a good quality is of unknown provinence. We'll have to wait for further evidence if we want to falsify the hypothesis.


Rob Dekker

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4714 on: October 06, 2018, 07:30:57 AM »

And I'm doing that by breaking down the problem in smaller and smaller pieces, until we find some common understanding of what is fact and what is not. That's how the scientific method works.

You totally don't know anything about scientific method if you say it's about breaking problems down in smaller and smaller pieces. Another Fail for Rob.

I understand the scientific method just fine, thank you. First, you need to break down a complex problem into small enough pieces before you can master any of it.

Why don't you argue the evidence of even the very first small piece, instead of the attacking the person ?

Quote
Quote
Do you agree or dispute that this is a picture of a picture of a guy called Chepiga ?
and
Do you agree or dispute that this picture is taken off the wall of Heroes of the Russian Federation at  the Far-Eastern Military Academy (DVOKU ) ?
Do you agree or dispute that this picture is genuine, and not falsified or altered in any way.
If you agree with all this, then we can move one level up in the discussion and the evidence.
If you dispute some of these statements, we can discuss the reason for your disagreement, and find evidence that supports or debunks the statement.

Cognitive assumptions about how the world works, influence how one interprets a percept: Who came up with the passport application from this Chepiga  guy? We don't know, we cannot verify that it's a real photo of Chepiga, we are just asked to believe what Bellingcat claims.

That's your answer ? Really ?

I did not even mention the passport application picture from Chepiga.
My questions were about this picture :



from this source :
https://ok.ru/profile/475421179769/album/856276858233/856276895865

About which there are these questions :

Do you agree or dispute that this is a picture of a picture of a guy called Chepiga ?
and
Do you agree or dispute that this picture is taken off the wall of Heroes of the Russian Federation at  the Far-Eastern Military Academy (DVOKU ) ?
Do you agree or dispute that this picture is genuine, and not falsified or altered in any way.

I'm reaching out to you to get to some form of common understanding.
Can you please start to address the evidence instead of the person, by answering at least one of these questions ?
« Last Edit: October 06, 2018, 07:40:14 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Rob Dekker

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4715 on: October 06, 2018, 08:22:18 AM »
Four Russian GRU operatives were busted by Dutch Military Intelligence while they were trying to hack into the WiFi networks of the OPCW in The Hague, last April this year (right around the time that the OPCW was analyzing the samples from the Skripal poinsoning).

Dutch intelligence released the personal information and much more in a press conference yesterday :

https://www.defensie.nl/binaries/defensie/documenten/publicaties/2018/10/04/gru-close-access-cyberoperatie-tegen-opcw/ppt+persconferentie+NEDERLANDS+DEF.pdf

Apparently, these knuckleheads were even carrying a taxi receipt with them from the GRU headquarters to the Moscow international airport.

You gotta love these Russian unintelligence officers.

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Rob Dekker

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4716 on: October 06, 2018, 08:36:08 AM »
Bellingcat ran the personal information of these 4 Russians through the Russian databases, and found that one of them registered a vehicle in 2011.

That is fine, but what is surprising is the address he used :  Ulitsa Narodnogo Opolcheniya 50, an address in Moscow where the Military Academy of the Ministry of Defence is situated. This Academy is popularly known as the GRU Conservatory.

Can you be so stupid ?

But it gets better :
Bellingcat scanned the car registration databases for any other registrations under that address, and  found a whopping 305 matches. Each one of them with all the personal information revealed, in what may be the largest mass breach of personal data of the any intelligence service in modern history.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2018/10/04/305-car-registrations-may-point-massive-gru-security-breach

It has not been a good week for the GRU.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2018, 09:26:10 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Hefaistos

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4717 on: October 06, 2018, 02:12:52 PM »

Apparently, these knuckleheads were even carrying a taxi receipt with them from the GRU headquarters to the Moscow international airport.

You gotta love these Russian unintelligence officers.

Those GRU guys probably fear their accountant (Baba-Yaga) more than they fear the Dutch :)

Everyone who lived in Russia, and ran a business there, will understand: Impossible to come home without all the receipts.

Hefaistos

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4718 on: October 06, 2018, 02:22:31 PM »

Bellingcat scanned the car registration databases for any other registrations under that address, and  found a whopping 305 matches. Each one of them with all the personal information revealed, in what may be the largest mass breach of personal data of the any intelligence service in modern history.
It has not been a good week for the GRU.

GRU must believe in the 'open society'.
Yeah, now they will have to give some of those junior operatives new identities. New passports will be issued. Probably they will all be in the same series numbers :)

Hefaistos

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4719 on: October 06, 2018, 02:43:06 PM »
Do you agree or dispute that this is a picture of a picture of a guy called Chepiga ?
and
Do you agree or dispute that this picture is taken off the wall of Heroes of the Russian Federation at  the Far-Eastern Military Academy (DVOKU ) ?
Do you agree or dispute that this picture is genuine, and not falsified or altered in any way.
I'm reaching out to you to get to some form of common understanding.
Can you please start to address the evidence instead of the person, by answering at least one of these questions ?

All this is too speculative for me. A very blurry photo on a wall of someone called Chepiga, I find it insignificant. Yes, there is such a guy, and his photo hangs on that wall. So what? The photo is very low quality, you can't use it for much anything. Bellingcat should send one of their guys and get a better photo of that Chepiga before this gets any interesting.

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4720 on: October 07, 2018, 08:11:03 AM »
Do you agree or dispute that this is a picture of a picture of a guy called Chepiga ?
and
Do you agree or dispute that this picture is taken off the wall of Heroes of the Russian Federation at  the Far-Eastern Military Academy (DVOKU ) ?
Do you agree or dispute that this picture is genuine, and not falsified or altered in any way.
I'm reaching out to you to get to some form of common understanding.
Can you please start to address the evidence instead of the person, by answering at least one of these questions ?

All this is too speculative for me. A very blurry photo on a wall of someone called Chepiga, I find it insignificant. Yes, there is such a guy, and his photo hangs on that wall. So what? The photo is very low quality, you can't use it for much anything. Bellingcat should send one of their guys and get a better photo of that Chepiga before this gets any interesting.

Yeah ! I take that as a YES to the first question : "this is a picture of a picture of a guy called Chepiga".

Now can you answer the next question ? :

Do you agree or dispute that this picture is taken off the wall of Heroes of the Russian Federation at  the Far-Eastern Military Academy (DVOKU )

For your information, here is another picture of that wall :



And here are their names (with Chepiga being the last one on the list) :
http://www.dvocu.ru/index/alleja_geroev/0-36
« Last Edit: October 07, 2018, 08:31:27 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4721 on: October 07, 2018, 09:05:23 AM »
Oh. Look at that. Craig Murray, who seems absolutely desperate to prove the Skripal suspects aren't GRU, has come up with this new theory about Chepiga's picture :

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2018/10/bellingcats-very-obviously-fake-chepiga-photo/

Craig seems to dispute my third question :
"Do you agree or dispute that this picture is genuine, and not falsified or altered in any way."

Craig states :

Quote
Bellingcat’s attempts to gild the Chepiga lily are now becoming ludicrous. The photo they published today is a very obvious fake.

Well, let's take a look at that.
For starters, the picture in question, this one :



from this source :
https://ok.ru/profile/475421179769/album/856276858233/856276895865

was posted June 26 2017, a whopping 9 months before the Skripal poisoning even happened.
So if it were a fake, it would have to be a very elaborate one, with a profound vision of the future.

Not just that, but we have several other pictures of that photo wall with Chepiga on there, like this one :



and this one



and this one



all of them taken before the Skripal poisoning took place.

So Craig is mistaken, unless he presents evidence that ALL of these pictures are 'obvious fake'.
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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4722 on: October 08, 2018, 04:47:54 AM »
A new picture of Chepiga appeared on social media today.
This is from his 2009 driver license :



Now, that is interesting, because we already have a picture of Boshirov (the main suspect in the Skripal case) from a 2010 internal passport application. In fact, that is the earliest evidence of the Boshirov identity existence. It's the middle picture in the composite below, with Chepiga (2001) on the left and Boshirov (2018) on the right :



Compare the middle Boshirov (2010) picture with the Chepiga driver license (2009) picture and it will be clear that now it has now become VERY hard to deny that both are the same person.

Bellingcat nailed it.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2018, 05:17:03 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4723 on: October 08, 2018, 08:25:07 AM »
Interesting. Does Higgins explain where the picture came from?
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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4724 on: October 08, 2018, 08:58:44 AM »
Interesting. Does Higgins explain where the picture came from?

Which specific picture are you talking about ?
I posted a lot of them.
And why does it matter where the picture came from ?
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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4725 on: October 08, 2018, 09:07:07 AM »
Which specific picture are you talking about ?
I posted a lot of them.

That last one.

Quote
And why does it matter where the picture came from ?

It doesn't, but for the sake of open source journalism, I'm just curious.
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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4726 on: October 08, 2018, 09:14:03 AM »
Which specific picture are you talking about ?
I posted a lot of them.

That last one.

Quote
And why does it matter where the picture came from ?

It doesn't, but for the sake of open source journalism, I'm just curious.

<snipped that link because I don't think it's relevant and I don't want anyone to get in trouble>

They mention that "a source" send them the picture.
That kind of makes sense : nobody in Russia would like to be named when taking a picture of a GRU operative responsible for poisoning the Skripals, while Putin said he is a civilian.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2018, 10:46:24 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4727 on: October 08, 2018, 10:39:41 AM »
Neven, why are you so curious about the source of this image, but fail to respond to my debunk of Craig Murray's theory about the Chepiga image ?

Nor did you comment on the similarity between the 2010 Boshirov picture and the 2009 Chepiga picture...
« Last Edit: October 08, 2018, 11:00:17 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4728 on: October 08, 2018, 03:51:48 PM »
Neven, why are you so curious about the source of this image, but fail to respond to my debunk of Craig Murray's theory about the Chepiga image ?

I'm not necessarily interested in debunking your debunks per se, but rather intrigued by 'anonymous source journalism'.

For what it's worth, I think Murray jumped to conclusions wrt picture on the wall. Nobody is perfect.

Quote
Nor did you comment on the similarity between the 2010 Boshirov picture and the 2009 Chepiga picture...

I've already said 'yes' to anything you may propose. Whether Russia/Putin did what is said they did (MH17, Skripal, etc) is irrelevant for my position that there is an excessive focus on what Russia is doing, and that the focus is excessive for a reason: To distract and create an enemy image.

The events are interesting in themselves, because who doesn't love a good mystery/conspiracy theory? I simply don't trust everything at face value, especially if it involves spy games. I've dug into enough controversial stories to know that one will never find out the entire truth.

The second reason I question certain aspects of it, is that if somehow it would turn out that the proposed narrative of Russia as the Axis of Evil du jour, is actually wrong (ie Russia/Putin didn't shoot down MH17 or poison Skripal or colluded with Trump), it would be easier to convince you of my theory that the Russia hype - as bad and corrupt as it is - is being used to further agendas (all having the increase of concentrated wealth as their ultimate goal).

Which is also why I say 'yes' to all your arguments (even if it may still turn out that this or that is more nuanced, and we aren't being told the entire context, especially not by 'anonymous source' journalists). Yes, Russia did this and Russia did that. Now what?
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Martin Gisser

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4729 on: October 09, 2018, 02:09:30 AM »
my position that there is an excessive focus on what Russia is doing, and that the focus is excessive for a reason: To distract and create an enemy image.
Poisoning people in other countries with Polonium and with Novichok is indeed a bit distractive and naturally tends to create an enemy image.

The tsunami of stupid excuses coming from Russia makes them look even more guilty: stupidly guilty.

Quote
I've dug into enough controversial stories to know that one will never find out the entire truth.
You have a lot of Russian propaganda and western polit paranoia to substract from the "controversy". Then the picture can get quite consistent.



Quote
if somehow it would turn out that the proposed narrative of Russia as the Axis of Evil du jour, is actually wrong (ie Russia/Putin didn't shoot down MH17 or poison Skripal or colluded with Trump), it would be easier to convince you of my theory
Me, sure it would. Alas the evidence...

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4730 on: October 09, 2018, 05:03:32 AM »
Neven, why are you so curious about the source of this image, but fail to respond to my debunk of Craig Murray's theory about the Chepiga image ?

I'm not necessarily interested in debunking your debunks per se, but rather intrigued by 'anonymous source journalism'.

I still believe you have it in you to see the light about open source journalism, and evidence-based reasoning, so let me try one more time :

For starters, the right to protect the identity of a source is recognized as a fundamental pillar of a free press, and recognized by law in most countries.

Also, don't you see that it is not important who took the picture of that passport ?

The way that "open source" journalism works is that the evidence is viewable by everyone and anyone can comment on it.

If this is not Chepiga's passport from 2009, then anyone who has evidence that it is falsified can present their counter evidence in public, where it can be discussed and checked.

For example, here :
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1974.msg173899.html#msg173899
I showed that the claims by the Russian Military of Defense of "image manipulation" of some of the MH17 evidence have no merit, by presenting counter evidence that showed a simple explanation for the observations.

If you still think the Russian Military of Defense still has a point, you can challenge my claims, and present your evidence, and I would invite anyone to do so.

That is the power of "open source" journalism, and evidence-based reasoning, and with enough evidence, and enough debunking of false theories, that's how you get to the truth.

Don't you see that ?

Quote
For what it's worth, I think Murray jumped to conclusions wrt picture on the wall. Nobody is perfect.

Oh. So Murray gets off the hook for pushing a conspiracy theory as well as falsely claiming that Bellingcat altered an image ?

In the same article Murray also claimed that "Bellingcat, however, have a track record of image manipulation.", which is a blatant lie. Bellingcat never manipulated any image, nor relied on any image that was later found to be manipulated.

The FACT is that Craig Murray has just once again been exposed as a pro-Russian conspiracy theorist who writes false reports and resorts to lies to smear open source journalists like Bellingcat, while Eliot Higgins was invited to present his latest findings (of the second Skripal suspect) in front of UK Parliament tomorrow morning.

Neven, maybe it's time to re-think which side you want to be on. The truth finders or the lies pushers...
« Last Edit: October 09, 2018, 08:14:48 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4731 on: October 09, 2018, 05:28:39 AM »
As a sneak peek, Bellingcat exposed the second suspect in the Skripal case :

Quote
We have now identified “Alexander Petrov” to be in fact Dr. Alexander Yevgenyevich Mishkin, a trained military doctor in the employ of the GRU.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/10/08/second-skripal-poisoning-suspect-identified-as-dr-alexander-mishkin/



More details to follow tomorrow, after Eliot Higgins will present his findings to the UK Parliament.

Also note that the Telegraph independently came to the same conclusion :
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/10/08/identity-second-salisbury-spy-revealed-embarrassment-russias/
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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4732 on: October 09, 2018, 11:47:27 PM »
Poisoning people in other countries with Polonium and with Novichok is indeed a bit distractive and naturally tends to create an enemy image.

The tsunami of stupid excuses coming from Russia makes them look even more guilty: stupidly guilty.

Sure, but there's a lot of guilty to go around, so I don't see why this should get the excessive amount of attention it gets, unless it is of profit to someone.

Do I have to automatically like and trust this someone because I don't like Russia? Or can I dislike and distrust both?

Quote
You have a lot of Russian propaganda and western polit paranoia to substract from the "controversy". Then the picture can get quite consistent.

To make the picture really consistent, is to assume a Hollywoodian universe of good guys vs bad guys, where Russia is the bad guys and the good guys are for instance the Ukraine, the CIA, NSA, and so on. It only works if one assumes that rather than a corporatist imperialist war machine, the US is a force for good in the world, turning everything it touches into freedom and democracy.

I'm sorry, I have trouble assuming that, even for the sake of 'consistency'. I rather assume that there are different mountains of concentrated wealth that try to get bigger by employing groups of people (their 'owners', first of all) to create conflict and then profit from them by getting the masses involved through propaganda. In other words, the way of the world since the invention of agriculture.

Quote
Quote
if somehow it would turn out that the proposed narrative of Russia as the Axis of Evil du jour, is actually wrong (ie Russia/Putin didn't shoot down MH17 or poison Skripal or colluded with Trump), it would be easier to convince you of my theory
Me, sure it would. Alas the evidence...

But would it? All it would take, would be for some Atlantic Council-sponsored outfit to declare it fake, and you would gladly be back to 'black-and-white consistent' again. That's what I think, but maybe I'm wrong.
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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4733 on: October 10, 2018, 12:23:09 AM »
Rob, our discussions take place at different levels that keep running through each other:

1) The details of Russia-related mysteries/crimes
2) What they mean in big picture context
3) The merits of 'open source journalism'

I still believe you have it in you to see the light about open source journalism, and evidence-based reasoning, so let me try one more time :

Okay, so this is discussion 3.

I already believe in the merits of investigative journalism, and evidence-based reasoning. I believe it's a force for good when it questions and challenges power, all power. I don't believe in it when it's being used as a cover that mainstream media can no longer provide.

Bellingcat, on the face of it, looks like a wonderful bowl of punch. A great recipe, a lovely mix, but then Eliot Higgins decides to shit in it, by openly flirting with a pro-war, pro-fracking, pro-propaganda organisation like the Atlantic Council. This totally screws up the bowl of punch.

I also don't believe for one second that he comes up with everything through brilliant investigations, but rather gets fed info from who knows where (and not telling us).

Quote
For starters, the right to protect the identity of a source is recognized as a fundamental pillar of a free press, and recognized by law in most countries.

Also, don't you see that it is not important who took the picture of that passport ?

This is still discussion 3, with a bit of discussion 2 mixed in.

No, it doesn't matter. But what would you think if a lot of the material Higgins gets, would actually come from intelligence agencies from the Ukraine or US? Would you think that perhaps there would be things they don't tell you because they want you to believe a certain narrative? A narrative where Russia's Keystone GRU Cops pose such a threat that the West must employ more and more sanctions and buy more and more (nuclear) weapons to fight this commie-terrorist-rogue-state axis of evil?

Quote
The way that "open source" journalism works is that the evidence is viewable by everyone and anyone can comment on it.

Still discussion 3.

Sure, but it's not 'open source journalism'. That's a nice sounding misnomer, like Ministry of Peace. It is 'anonymous source journalism', and its goal is not to uncover the whole truth and nothing but the truth, but just those pieces of the truth that compose a certain narrative.

Do you think for one second that if Higgins would have one thing that looks bad for the CIA/NSA/MI6, he would share it with you? Would he go: Here, another great win for open source journalism?

Of course, he wouldn't. He's clearly on a team, and that means he's biased and dependent. He wants to create a pre-determined narrative. He could try to be unbiased and present all the evidence he has, proposing an analysis and weighing all aspects of the story, but then he wouldn't be presenting anything anywhere. He'd probably be confined to some embassy, or have to live in Russia, or be on some BS list like Propornot.

Quote
If this is not Chepiga's passport from 2009, then anyone who has evidence that it is falsified can present their counter evidence in public, where it can be discussed and checked.

For example, here :
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1974.msg173899.html#msg173899
I showed that the claims by the Russian Military of Defense of "image manipulation" of some of the MH17 evidence have no merit, by presenting counter evidence that showed a simple explanation for the observations.

If you still think the Russian Military of Defense still has a point, you can challenge my claims, and present your evidence, and I would invite anyone to do so.

This is discussion 1, but in order to save time, I have already said 'yes' to whatever it is you propose, so we can cut to discussion 2: Now what? You have proven Russia did everything that was said it did from day 1, even though all the evidence was shared piecemeal. Now what?

Quote
That is the power of "open source" journalism, and evidence-based reasoning, and with enough evidence, and enough debunking of false theories, that's how you get to the truth.

Don't you see that ?

I try to look further ahead, or as the Dutch say: Verder kijken dan m'n neus lang is.

All of these evidence-based 'truths' need to be placed into a context. A context that is inevitably historical, because nothing new is happening here. It's a pattern that has been repeated for centuries, with the only difference perhaps being that the stakes keep getting higher.

Quote
Neven, maybe it's time to re-think which side you want to be on. The truth finders or the lies pushers...

I want to be on the side of wisdom. Given our imperfections and invisible confirmation biases, choosing sides will almost inevitably mean that we're not going to break the vicious cycle of misery for wealth and power. But if we don't break it, everything is meaningless and a waste of time.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 12:37:34 AM by Neven »
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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4734 on: October 10, 2018, 01:44:39 AM »
To make the picture really consistent, is to assume a Hollywoodian universe of good guys vs bad guys, where Russia is the bad guys and the good guys are for instance the Ukraine, the CIA, NSA, and so on.
Good vs Bad, either-or, tertium non datur thinking is what endangers consistency most. "You're either with us, or with the terrorists" (GW Bush)
-- ... but there are also stupid guys, lucky guys, panicking guys, crazy guys, etc



Quote
All it would take, would be for some Atlantic Council-sponsored outfit to declare it fake,
What is important at the very first is the content, not the source of the information. It could as well be an anonymous comment falsifying Bellingcat. Heck, why not from Lavrov?
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 02:59:17 AM by Martin Gisser »

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4735 on: October 10, 2018, 02:02:34 AM »
LOL lurking for a long time

you silly people fighting amongst yourselves: hot air signifying nothing
no productive results other than showing who has the biggest dicks
really silly.  you people here make my entertainment dayly

Terry M who really made me leave this site who because he is MENSA believes any prognostications he makes are true, without any logic or evidence.  Terry  is a real blowhard. 

Neven you are the worst, i hate to say it
Your paranoid viewpoint points to the fact that you
have never had to survive real hardships or deal with very devious and psychopathic people.   You do not trust anyone do you.. in such a case you should become a hermit who can only trust yourself or what you yourself experience...

Neven it is time to close the "the rest" channel, and get back to the real problems of climate change....
and so it goes

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4736 on: October 10, 2018, 04:53:53 AM »
Rob, our discussions take place at different levels that keep running through each other:

1) The details of Russia-related mysteries/crimes
2) What they mean in big picture context
3) The merits of 'open source journalism'

I still believe you have it in you to see the light about open source journalism, and evidence-based reasoning, so let me try one more time :

Okay, so this is discussion 3.

I already believe in the merits of investigative journalism, and evidence-based reasoning. I believe it's a force for good when it questions and challenges power, all power. I don't believe in it when it's being used as a cover that mainstream media can no longer provide.

Bellingcat, on the face of it, looks like a wonderful bowl of punch. A great recipe, a lovely mix, but then Eliot Higgins decides to shit in it, by openly flirting with a pro-war, pro-fracking, pro-propaganda organisation like the Atlantic Council. This totally screws up the bowl of punch.

If I understand you correctly, your fight is not really with open source journalism, or with Bellingcat, but with Eliot Higgins being at the Atlantic Counsel.
Did it occur to you that Eliot Higgins is at the Atlantic Counsel to teach them how to do open source investigations ? With DFRlab as a result.

He is trying to make the Atlantic Counsel better, Neven.
Don't you see that ?

Also, could you produce ANY example articles from the Atlantic Counsel that show that they are "a pro-war, pro-fracking, pro-propaganda organisation".

Quote
I also don't believe for one second that he comes up with everything through brilliant investigations, but rather gets fed info from who knows where (and not telling us).

That's a conspiracy theory unsupported by evidence.

Bellingcat has been very good in showing where they obtained their source material from.
It's mostly from material that that people posted on social media.
And even when it's not (like the passport info they posted about the Skripal case) they state where they obtained it from.

Quote
Quote
For starters, the right to protect the identity of a source is recognized as a fundamental pillar of a free press, and recognized by law in most countries.

Also, don't you see that it is not important who took the picture of that passport ?

This is still discussion 3, with a bit of discussion 2 mixed in.

No, it doesn't matter. But what would you think if a lot of the material Higgins gets, would actually come from intelligence agencies from the Ukraine or US?

That conspiracy theory again.

Since you claim that this happens "a lot", can you give a couple of examples of some source material Bellingcat used without them stating where they obtained it from ?

Quote
Would you think that perhaps there would be things they don't tell you because they want you to believe a certain narrative? A narrative where Russia's Keystone GRU Cops pose such a threat that the West must employ more and more sanctions and buy more and more (nuclear) weapons to fight this commie-terrorist-rogue-state axis of evil?

You are going into hyperbole here, Neven. No evidence, pure speculation.
Please use evidence-based reasoning, starting with evidence, then reason, then speak.

Quote
Quote
The way that "open source" journalism works is that the evidence is viewable by everyone and anyone can comment on it.

Still discussion 3.

Sure, but it's not 'open source journalism'. That's a nice sounding misnomer, like Ministry of Peace. It is 'anonymous source journalism', and its goal is not to uncover the whole truth and nothing but the truth, but just those pieces of the truth that compose a certain narrative.

Oh. So now you also know what the 'goal' is of 'open source journalism' ?
And you know this because....???
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 08:22:11 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4737 on: October 10, 2018, 05:46:46 AM »
Christiaan Triebert sets the record straight :

It’s worth remembering that Bellingcat is a volunteer-driven organization. While we’re growing financially, many investigations are still led by people who don’t get paid and have normal day jobs. This includes the Skripal case.

https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1049781494556835840
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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4738 on: October 10, 2018, 07:30:56 AM »
Neven wrote:  "break the vicious cycle of misery for wealth and power."

I replied in another thread, since it thought it was more apposite.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1102.msg176355.html#msg176355

sidd

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4739 on: October 11, 2018, 07:18:53 AM »
Now that Bellingcat found out the real identity of the second Skripal suspect as GRU medical doctor Lt.Colonel Alexander Mishkin, I can't wait for RT's Margarita Simonyan to interview Petrov, Boshirov, Mishkin and Chepiga all at once.

That will prove Bellingcat wrong.... ;)

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4740 on: October 11, 2018, 08:02:18 AM »
Bellingcat was not the only one who uncovered the identity of the second Skripal suspect.
A group of open source investigators in Russia, called CITeam, came to the same conclusion, but via a completely different pathway of evidence.

They started with Chepiga, and then they traced car registrations, and found out that on May 30 2018, Chepiga sold the car to a certain Aleksandr Evgenyevich Mishkin. When they found a picture of Mishkin from his driver license, the link was obvious.

Read their investigation here :
https://citeam.org/whats-in-a-number-how-love-for-expensive-cars-and-number-plates-revealed-the-second-skripal-suspects-indentity/

This is another very dumb move by one GRU un-intelligence officer to sell a car to the other GRU un-intelligence officer UNDER THEIR REAL NAMES, after they both traveled together to Salisbury under fake names. So now a connection between Chepiga and Mishkin can no longer be denied.

Great detective work by CITeam.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 08:30:22 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Rob Dekker

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4741 on: October 12, 2018, 07:45:06 AM »
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If this is not Chepiga's passport from 2009, then anyone who has evidence that it is falsified can present their counter evidence in public, where it can be discussed and checked.

For example, here :
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1974.msg173899.html#msg173899
I showed that the claims by the Russian Military of Defense of "image manipulation" of some of the MH17 evidence have no merit, by presenting counter evidence that showed a simple explanation for the observations.

If you still think the Russian Military of Defense still has a point, you can challenge my claims, and present your evidence, and I would invite anyone to do so.

This is discussion 1, but in order to save time, I have already said 'yes' to whatever it is you propose, so we can cut to discussion 2: Now what? You have proven Russia did everything that was said it did from day 1, even though all the evidence was shared piecemeal. Now what?

Neven, you are jumping from "I doubt everything from every side" to "Sure, have it your way, and assume you have it all right".

Neither one of these two extreme positions takes into account that in order to find the truth, we need to gather evidence, present it, and accept it. And you ignore that in between you were very much attacking the very people who are doing exactly such fact-checking. Like Bellingcat.

Your change of mind is very much like what we see with climate science deniers : First they deny everything, then they attack the fact-checkers (the scientists) and then they roll over saying that even if we accept all the evidence, it does not matter.

I really hate that kind of reasoning, Neven, and I am very disappointed, especially since you rely on evidence and facts and science when it comes to climate change.

Neven, you have done an amazing job in creating a platform where science-oriented people can talk about Arctic Sea Ice decline and climate change. ASIB and ASIF are such a relief from the climate science denier sites that I used to have to argue with (remember I came here in 2011 after arguing on WUWT about the 2011 sea ice minimum?). I thought that here I would find a home of like-minded science-oriented evidence-based reasoning people arguing using the facts and the science instead of opinion.

But then I found that on the issue of Russia it seems that I have to make an exception ?

Especially with all the misery Russia under Putin has caused, in Moldova, in Georgia, in Ukraine, with MH17, and with their targeting hospitals and mosques and chemical weapons use in Syria and more (as the Skripal case), I am utterly disappointed you (and not only you) argue about the fact checkers (like Bellingcat), rather than with the facts, as you would do for climate change issues.

I'm especially appalled by the denial and the endless stream of hypocritical lies out of Russia regarding ALL these acts of aggression and violations of international law, and so it is disheartening to me that you (and not only you) ignore or even attack the fact-checkers that point out these lies.

You make it seem like no justice can be done any more. Russia can do whatever it wants, including even shooting down a civilian airliner. You still use your own political ideology that everything is caused by greed, as well as your opinion that nothing can be known for sure, as an excuse to avoid a discussion about the evidence we have available, and to attack the ones who point it out.

I'm not like that. I like to check the facts and used evidence to show the difference between the truth and the lies. Just like what Bellingcat does.

I really hope at some point you will see that facts are stubborn things. No matter if they are about our climate or about Russian atrocities. And I hope you will see that by fact-checking and using evidence-based reasoning, that propaganda is exposed, and lies are debunked, so that the truth, and with that JUSTICE, can prevail.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2018, 11:09:31 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Neven

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4742 on: October 12, 2018, 12:30:40 PM »
Neven, you are jumping from "I doubt everything from every side" to "Sure, have it your way, and assume you have it all right".

No, I'm not jumping. As I've said we are having multiple discussions that are interconnected and intertwined:

1) The details of Russia-related mysteries/crimes
2) What they mean in big picture context
3) The merits of 'open source journalism'

I still doubt a lot from every side when it comes to 1), because we don't know everything, there is very little transparency, and different narratives are being pushed to further different agendas (none of them the people's).

Which is why I try to fast forward to 2). I've already said that I have certain 'hopes' for 1) to convince others of what I think of 2). If some aspects of or the entire official narrative surrounding 1) turn out to be wrong (like with Gulf of Tonkin, or Iraq WMDs, etc), it is easier to convince others that the masses are being played by small factions who try to further their goals (which is always tied to concentrated wealth), as has been done since the invention of agriculture.

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Neither one of these two extreme positions takes into account that in order to find the truth, we need to gather evidence, present it, and accept it. And you ignore that in between you were very much attacking the very people who are doing exactly such fact-checking. Like Bellingcat.

Proposing a hpyothesis, 'let's say you're right about everything (1), what does that mean in the big picture context (2)?' , is not taking an extreme position. It's just proposing a hypothesis, where you can discuss different possibilities. Unless you know The Truth, of course.

You're projecting stuff onto me and putting words in my mouth. But the words are there for everyone to see. Of course, I could very well be wrong about everything I say, but at least let me be wrong about the things I do say, and not the things you think I'm saying.

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Your change of mind is very much like what we see with climate science deniers : First they deny everything, then they attack the fact-checkers (the scientists) and then they roll over saying that even if we accept all the evidence, it does not matter.

I really hate that kind of reasoning, Neven, and I am very disappointed, especially since you rely on evidence and facts and science when it comes to climate change.

Sigh, here we go again. Do you have any idea how easy it is to make these analogies?

"Rob is on a crusade and so he believes everything uncritically that the good volunteers of Bellingcat decide to share. And the white, middle-aged male that he is, he's adamant about telling everyone he's right and they need to shut up, employing debate tactics that border on trolling. Just like a fanatical climate risk denier who thinks Americans For Prosperity is a wonderful, unbiased resource. Either way, down with the commie bastards."

Remember, you're the one denying that Russia is the bogeyman du jour to further US geopolitical interests (and when I say US, I mean US corporations), which explains the excessive focus it receives, and uniform messaging by the mainstream media. This part of the context must not be discussed because it can't be proven scientifically (or whatever goalpost needs to be shifted to).

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Neven, you have done an amazing job in creating a platform where science-oriented people can talk about Arctic Sea Ice decline and climate change. ASIB and ASIF are such a relief from the climate science denier sites that I used to have to argue with (remember I came here in 2011 after arguing on WUWT about the 2011 sea ice minimum?). I thought that here I would find a home of like-minded science-oriented evidence-based reasoning people arguing using the facts and the science instead of opinion.

This. Isn't. Science.

Yes, maybe geolocating an image is. But even then, this evidence (1) needs to be put in a larger context (2), and biases and agendas (3) always turn this context into a narrative. And that's when it ceases to be science and becomes art, and you need more than just a scientific mind that's great at binary thinking (and probably has a leaning towards technocratic authoritarianism).

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Especially with all the misery Russia under Putin has caused, in Moldova, in Georgia, in Ukraine, with MH17, and with their targeting hospitals and mosques and chemical weapons use in Syria and more (as the Skripal case), I am utterly disappointed you (and not only you) argue about the fact checkers (like Bellingcat), rather than with the facts, as you would do for climate change issues.

Climate change is a lot more clear-cut than this. I can't make my response any simpler, especially since I'm not allowed to employ whataboutism.

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I'm especially appalled by the denial and the endless stream of hypocritical lies out of Russia regarding ALL these acts of aggression and violations of international law, and so it is disheartening to me that you (and not only you) ignore or even attack the fact-checkers that point out these lies.

And this is discussion (3).

Bellingcat is a great initiative. It's when people like Higgins, Toler and Kaszeta flirt with war-mongering, anti-democracy institutions like the Atlantic Council that things get screwed up. It tarnishes the whole thing.

Maybe if they try to become like an Edward Snowden or Chelsea Manning, this perception could change. But I don't think that will ever happen, as that would be the end of the bandwagon. Bellingcat is being used as a propaganda outlet for mainstream media to hide behind, and I feel sorry for all the volunteers who dedicate their time and effort to what on paper seems like a welcome initiative.

But as luck has it, I have just been asked by a client to translate a documentary about Bellingcat, so maybe I'll change my mind. ;)

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You make it seem like no justice can be done any more. Russia can do whatever it wants, including even shooting down a civilian airliner. You still use your own political ideology that everything is caused by greed, as well as your opinion that nothing can be known for sure, as an excuse to avoid a discussion about the evidence we have available, and to attack the ones who point it out.

I'm not like that. I like to check the facts and used evidence to show the difference between the truth and the lies. Just like what Bellingcat does.

I really hope at some point you will see that facts are stubborn things. No matter if they are about our climate or about Russian atrocities. And I hope you will see that by fact-checking and using evidence-based reasoning, that propaganda is exposed, and lies are debunked, so that the truth, and with that JUSTICE, can prevail.

Facts don't mean all that much without context. There is no justice without context. What you want, is bloodthirsty revenge. That's dangerous, and a total waste of our time and planet.

It is possible to denounce the deeds of the Russian government, without letting this denouncement be abused by actors that do similar deeds to further their agenda.

We are not fighting Russia, we are fighting factions on all sides that try to get the masses involved in their goals. It's not a fight between one faction+one part of the masses versus another faction+another part of the masses. The fight is between these factions and the masses.

And we are part of the masses, regardless of borders and differences in race, culture, faith, etc, right?
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Neven

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4743 on: October 12, 2018, 12:48:36 PM »
But to get back to 1), because these events remain very intriguing mysteries.

If we assume the Chepiga/Mishkin is correct, and it certainly seems like it, the big question is: Were they in Salisbury to poison Skripal, or was Skripal poisoned because they were there? In other words, was Russia-loving double agent Skripal making plans of returning to the bosom of Mother Russia, and were some elements displeased about this? I'm still not ruling out that Skripal played a role in the Steele dossier, mainly because this question still hasn't been asked by any journalist (probably because they aren't allowed to).

Or, if Chepiga and Mishkin did poison the Skripals (so many weaknesses in the official narrative, but never mind), did they do it on behalf of the Russian government, or is there some mob aspect to the story? As corrupt as Russia is, to the highest levels of government, it wouldn't seem too difficult to pull strings to cover for Chepiga and Mishkin.

This is all discussion 1). Of course, it has potential implications for discussion 2), but we don't know.
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TerryM

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4744 on: October 12, 2018, 06:10:53 PM »
Neven
Stay sane while translating the documentary ;)


Open Source Journalism is strong when geo-location, identification of pictured military hardware, and even agreed translations of speeches in foreign tongues is the output. In my experience it requires participation from both (all) sides with no one deciding who's argument wins the day. It becomes a consensus where all but the hard liners come to an agreement.


Eliot was a hard liner & was therefor often ridiculed. In a minority of cases a definitive answer was arrived at, but Eliot still wouldn't agree that he had been wrong.


He eventually left the site and founded Bellingcat, which used some of the Open Source elements, but omitted the most important feature which was that each participant's observation was evaluated by the whole of the group. Not by a moderator or the site owner.


Do people actually believe that Eliot came up with this system while living with his mother and playing war games on the internet? He, like many others, learned the rules at the feet of a group that had been doing Open Source for some time. He just wasn't willing to follow those rules.


With luck your documentary will identify the site I've avoided naming.
Watching as it was destroyed by people with enough pull to uproot even the archives was eye opening, edifying, and horrifying.
Terry


Rob Dekker

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4745 on: October 13, 2018, 07:11:28 AM »
So, let us summarize.

These two guys in Salisbury that Putin claimed were civilians, who themselves claimed they wanted to visit the Cathedral, but got stuck in the snow, and therefore walked a mile in opposite direction.



These guys now turn out (as per evidence presented by Bellingcat) to be Colonel Chepiga and Lt.Colonel Mishkin, both senior operatives in the GRU, Russian Military Intelligence, who were recorded on a CCTV camera less than 500 meters from Skripal's house on the day of the poisoning.

So, Putin was lying. They were not civilians.
And they were lying, because they were not Borishov and Petrov, but in fact GRU Chepiga and Mishkin. And they were lying again in the interview, about the corridors they walked through.

Even after all these fact checks of their identities, and the fake stories and the lies by these Russian GRU operatives, and the lies from Putin himself, Neven still has an explanation AWAY from the obvious conclusion that the Russians did it and Putin ordered it :

But to get back to 1), because these events remain very intriguing mysteries.

If we assume the Chepiga/Mishkin is correct, and it certainly seems like it, the big question is: Were they in Salisbury to poison Skripal, or was Skripal poisoned because they were there? In other words, was Russia-loving double agent Skripal making plans of returning to the bosom of Mother Russia, and were some elements displeased about this? I'm still not ruling out that Skripal played a role in the Steele dossier, mainly because this question still hasn't been asked by any journalist (probably because they aren't allowed to).

Are you seriously suggesting that somebody ELSE put Novichok on Skripal's front door knob at the same time that these two GRU operatives were 500 meters away from Skripal's house ?

That's quite a conspiracy theory.

OK. Under that conspiracy theory, many questions arise. Like :

-If not these two GRU officers, who exactly poisoned the Skripals ?
-Exactly what were these two GRU officers doing in Salisbury 500 meters away from Skripal's house at the same time the poisoning happened ?
-And how come there was Novichok in their hotel room ?
-And if these guys did nothing wrong in Salisbury, why did they lie in their interview with RT ?

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Or, if Chepiga and Mishkin did poison the Skripals (so many weaknesses in the official narrative, but never mind), did they do it on behalf of the Russian government, or is there some mob aspect to the story? As corrupt as Russia is, to the highest levels of government, it wouldn't seem too difficult to pull strings to cover for Chepiga and Mishkin.

This is all discussion 1). Of course, it has potential implications for discussion 2), but we don't know.

Another conspiracy theory.
If THAT theory is correct, and Putin had nothing to do with it, then why did Putin lie (that Chepiga and Mishkin were "civilians") ?

Seriously, Neven, why are you doing this ?

Why do you come up with these totally implausible conspiracy theories, which are so easily debunked ?

What's going on ?
« Last Edit: October 13, 2018, 08:52:35 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Neven

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4746 on: October 13, 2018, 10:29:07 AM »
Seriously, Neven, why are you doing this ?

I've told you multiple times why I'm doing this. Now you scroll up and find the bit where I'm explaining it, copy it and paste it in a new comment.

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Why do you come up with these totally implausible conspiracy theories, which are so easily debunked ?

Because Russia and the GRU aren't the only bad actors out there.

Do you even read my comments? Or does your mind blank out as soon as you read something you don't like? Get a grip.
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oren

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4747 on: October 13, 2018, 02:42:23 PM »
Occam's razor says the Russians did the poisoning, that's not very difficult to figure out after all the information and disinformation floating around. I just have a piece of advice Rob, which I'm sure you don't need or want, but sometimes it's better to let go of an issue rather than tarnish your reputation in the associated mud.
Yes I know that's how disinformation campaigns succeed, but still, it's not worth your time. And the longer you keep at it, the worse your image as a scientist becomes, while you probably did not convince anyone of anything. Haterz gonna hate and skeptics gonna skept. This whole thread is basically the same in that regard, and serves as a great distraction from important issues where science does matter.
Note: be aware that your conviction in Bellingcat's objectivity seems to be misplaced. They probably have lots of good information, but they don't seem to lack an agenda. (And no, I never read Bellingcat and only know about it from the thousands of posts in this thread that I do my best to avoid reading).

SteveMDFP

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4748 on: October 13, 2018, 11:13:52 PM »
Occam's razor says the Russians did the poisoning, that's not very difficult to figure out after all the information and disinformation floating around. I just have a piece of advice Rob, which I'm sure you don't need or want, but sometimes it's better to let go of an issue rather than tarnish your reputation in the associated mud.
Yes I know that's how disinformation campaigns succeed, but still, it's not worth your time. And the longer you keep at it, the worse your image as a scientist becomes, while you probably did not convince anyone of anything. Haterz gonna hate and skeptics gonna skept. This whole thread is basically the same in that regard, and serves as a great distraction from important issues where science does matter.
Note: be aware that your conviction in Bellingcat's objectivity seems to be misplaced. They probably have lots of good information, but they don't seem to lack an agenda. (And no, I never read Bellingcat and only know about it from the thousands of posts in this thread that I do my best to avoid reading).

Meh.  Scientists are sometimes regarded as being quirky.  If a particular quirk is focusing hyper-intently on a particular issue, well, there are far worse quirks.  Perseverance has resulted in advances.

Bellingcat is not just a person, it's a community.  Maybe the community has a general anti-Russian bias, maybe they just are driven to blow apart propagandist denials.  Hard to know.  But Bellincat isn't ONLY focused on giving Russia/Putin a bad name.  I was quite impressed by their role in uncovering an atrocity in Cameroon:

Cameroon atrocity: Finding the soldiers who killed this woman
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-africa-45599973/cameroon-atrocity-finding-the-soldiers-who-killed-this-woman

It strikes me that "open-source journalism" might perhaps be better termed "crowd-sourced journalism."  They take a very loosely defined number of geeks and specialists to bring a wide range of information and techniques to questions of concern.  They can do things with this infrastructure that outfits like the New York Times might only dream of.

All resources, all tools, all organizations have flaws and biases.  I'm sure this observation applies to Bellingcat.  But mostly, I'm impressed by what they've been able to accomplish.

Rob Dekker

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Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Reply #4749 on: October 14, 2018, 08:27:32 AM »
Occam's razor says the Russians did the poisoning, that's not very difficult to figure out after all the information and disinformation floating around.

Not just Occam's razor.
ALL the evidence we have suggests these two GRU agents did the poisoning.
There is literally NO evidence for any alternative theory.

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I just have a piece of advice Rob, which I'm sure you don't need or want, but sometimes it's better to let go of an issue rather than tarnish your reputation in the associated mud.
Yes I know that's how disinformation campaigns succeed, but still, it's not worth your time. And the longer you keep at it, the worse your image as a scientist becomes, while you probably did not convince anyone of anything. Haterz gonna hate and skeptics gonna skept. This whole thread is basically the same in that regard, and serves as a great distraction from important issues where science does matter.

Huh ?

So when Neven posts conspiracy theories here that are entirely void of evidence, that's OK.

But if I ask some critical questions about these conspiracy theories, then I need to "let go" of the issue, because I may "tarnish your reputation in the associated mud.". and "the worse your image as a scientist becomes" and its "a great distraction from important issues" ?

What's going on here, Oren ? Why are you trying to intimidate me ?

Neven can't answer the questions I asked about his conspiracy theories ?

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Note: be aware that your conviction in Bellingcat's objectivity seems to be misplaced. They probably have lots of good information, but they don't seem to lack an agenda. (And no, I never read Bellingcat and only know about it from the thousands of posts in this thread that I do my best to avoid reading).

You figured that out just by reading the comments here ?

Seriously, Oren. Read a Bellingcat article. They are evidence-based and factual. That's what makes them so powerful. There is not much room for any 'agenda' of any sort, other than to find the truth in any event they investigate.

Here is one example that the pro-Russian crowd likes to ignore :
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/03/16/us-missile-remains-reportedly-recovered-from-site-of-aleppo-mosque-bombing/
« Last Edit: October 14, 2018, 09:10:27 AM by Rob Dekker »
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