US Wind Continues to Grow

[Bob Wallace]

The U.S. wind industry installed more than 8 gigawatts in 2015 and again in 2016. Follow that with the strongest first quarter this decade and the industry can lay claim to some consistency,

Hunt said, "We've seen a steady and significant cost decline system making wind energy more economic than ever." The cost decline is due to technology innovation such as increased blade length, increased hub height, improved siting techniques and advanced software that's helping to boost overall performance in the turbine.

She notes, "There's been very compelling studies released by NREL that reveal the increased geographic area that can be developed when you increase hub heights from 80 meters, which is still more or less the industry standards today, up to 100 meters. It really has an exponential effect on the area that can be developed."

Here are some more stats from the report:

The U.S. wind industry installed 2,000 megawatts during the first quarter of 2017, a 385 percent increase from the first quarter of 2016 and the second strongest first quarter on record.

The addition of North Carolina’s first utility-scale wind project brings U.S. installed wind power capacity to 84,143 megawatts across 41 states.

Project developers reported a combined 20,977 megawatts of wind capacity under construction or in advanced development, with 4,466 megawatts in combined new announcements. There are now 9,025 megawatts under construction and 11,952 megawatts in advanced development.

1,781 megawatts of power purchase agreements were signed during the first quarter, the strongest first quarter for PPA announcements since the beginning of 2013.

There are now 41 states with utility-scale wind projects.

GE Renewable Energy, Siemens, and Vestas captured a combined 88 percent of the U.S. wind turbine market during the first quarter.

24 percent of the 2,000 megawatts installed in the first quarter are contracted to non-utility purchasers including the U.S. Army and Google Energy.

www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Wind-Industry-Deployed-2GW-in-Big-First-Quarter

Wind now produces 5.5% of America's electricity.

[Sigmetnow]

America's First Offshore Wind Energy Makes Landfall in Rhode Island

Offshore wind works for Block Island, where the economics of fossil fuels no longer makes sense. Can it also be a key part of the energy mix for the coastal U.S.?
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28042017/block-island-wind-farm-deepwater-wind-renewable-energy-climate-change

[Bob Wallace]

Can offshore wind also be a key part of the energy mix for the coastal U.S.?

Dang tootin', Skippy.



Look at all that beautiful blue, red and purple off the US beaches.  Stronger wind resources than in the US Midwest, which is some of the best wind territory in the world.

Even Texas has good offshore wind to feed the ERCOT grid.

BTW, the land map is for 100 meter hub heights.  With the 140 meter heights we're now moving to there's  a heck of a lot more wind available in the US, including the Southeast where it was thought wind wouldn't play much of a role.

[jai mitchell]

This is a great lecture from one of the country's largest supplier of wind-generated electricity, talks about the economics, projections and where we are headed with wind and other renewables.  He has some very interesting ideas about offshore vs. onshore wind and I thought it very interesting that newer sited wind farms in the u.s. are approaching 50% capacity annually!

[Bob Wallace]

This is a great lecture from one of the country's largest supplier of wind-generated electricity, talks about the economics, projections and where we are headed with wind and other renewables.  He has some very interesting ideas about offshore vs. onshore wind and I thought it very interesting that newer sited wind farms in the u.s. are approaching 50% capacity annually!

Recently the NREL released a study which looks at capacity factors we should expect using 140 meter hub heights and 'best technology' turbines.  We've got 2 million km3 where we should get 60% and more CFs.  Over 3 million km3 with CFs over 50%.

This is a measurement of usable land.  Urban/residential areas are omitted as are parks and other places where turbines are not installed.

[jai mitchell]

map here:

https://maps.nrel.gov/wind-prospector/#/?aL=kM6jR-%255Bv%255D%3Dt%26qCw3hR%255Bv%255D%3Dt%26qCw3hR%255Bd%255D%3D1&bL=groad&cE=0&lR=0&mC=39.01064750994083%2C-99.140625&zL=5

[rboyd]

US Wind Continues To Grow, But At A Falling Rate Of Growth

Data from the American Wind Energy Association (in MW)            
Year  Total    Growth   Percentage   
2001   4147     n/a             n/a   
2002   4557     410             9.89%   
2003   6222     1665           36.54%   
2004   6619     397             6.38%   
2005   8993     2374           35.87%   
2006   11450   2457           27.32%   
2007   16702   5252           45.87%   
2008   25065   8363           50.07%   
2009   35068   10003         39.91%   
2010   40283   5215           14.87%   
2011   46930   6647           16.50%   
2012   60012   13082         27.88%   
2013   61110   1098           1.83%   
2014   65877   4767           7.80%   
2015   73992   8115           12.32%   
2016   82183   8191           11.07%   

2017-2020 forecast addition of 35GW (35,000MW), approx. 10% yearly growth rate.

Results in 117183 MW by end 2020. As a comparison, installed Natural Gas capacity is 457500 MW, and that is forecast to increase to 494100 through 2018 (additional 36.6GW of capacity in two years). Coal and natural gas electricity generation output will be about the same during that period, as a drop in nuclear offsets the growth in renewables.            
         
At approx. 10% yearly growth, the time for each doubling is approx. 7 years. As the already installed capacity increases, the amount of new installs required each year to keep up the growth rate increases. The faster the growth rate, the bigger jumps needed in yearly installs to keep up that rate of growth.

http://www.awea.org/wind-energy-facts-at-a-glance

http://www.awea.org/MediaCenter/pressrelease.aspx?ItemNumber=10025

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29732

[Bob Wallace]

map here:

Thanks, hadn't seen that site before.  Unfortunately it hasn't been updated to include hub heights greater than 80 meters.

When the US built its first wind farm we were looking at wind resources at only 50 meters off the ground.  I think it was Mark Jacobson who kicked higher hub heights into gear by publishing some wind data at 80 meters.  Since then we've  seen hub heights increase in order to get rotors up into stronger, cleaner, more consistent wind.  I'll stick a progression of wind maps with increasing hub heights in so that people can see how US wind resources grow.  (Some of the maps don't contain offshore data.)











 

[Bob Wallace]

US Wind Continues To Grow, But At A Falling Rate Of Growth

One should expect falling rates of growth as any change occurs.

Moving from 1 wind turbine installed in the first year to 2 wind turbines installed in the second year is a 100% rate of growth.  Moving from 100 turbines installed in one year to 110 turbines installed the next year is only a 10% rate of growth but 10x as many turbines came online as when the number went from one to two.

New tech adoption tends to start slow, accelerate (increasing annual rate of growth), stabilize at a somewhat consistent rate (no real increase in rate) until saturation is approached.  Close to complete replacement/adoption rates tend to drop.



All that said, I expect the rate of growth for wind to stay moderately high for some more years.  Falling costs and more public support should drive acceleration. 

I highly suspect projected high growth rates for natural gas plants will continue.  From what I've read many markets have reached NG plant saturation.  Some areas which are still strong in coal may need more NG capacity for renewable fill-in.  The US had a few years of rapid NG installation growth but now the rate as settled down.

[Sigmetnow]

Maryland bravely approving a site (on the distant horizon) off the vital tourist enclave of Ocean City! 
They may find, as others have, that tourism increases, rather than decreases, because people come specifically to look at the turbines.

“U.S. Wind officials have said that on a clear day, their turbines would appear to a person on the beach as about the size of a thumbnail at arms length.”

PSC ruling means Maryland could be home to nation's second and third offshore wind farms
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/environment/bs-md-offshore-wind-licenses-20170511-story.html