Hurricane season 2017

[be cause]

Looks like TS Jose has it's eyes on the east coast .. as a major hurricane . Three in a row .. a $trillion in damage .. weather obviously . After 142 months nature is leaving donald an impressive calling card ..

[Gray-Wolf]

Oh my! Cat 5 when the hurricane hunters got to her!!!

GFS have her entering Florida at the keys and then rolling north through all of the state maintaining major status as she goes?

Then we have the chance of Jose forming later today and that appears aimed at east coast USA!!!

Maybe donald needs a trip to his weekend home this weekend???

[Sigmetnow]

Unfortunately the 00Z Euro (ECMWF) is in good agreement with the GFS; very dangerous Hurricane Irma moving up the Florida Peninsula Sunday.
https://mobile.twitter.com/spann/status/905011082120613888
Animation at the link.

[Sigmetnow]

Now is the time to prepare for #HurricaneIrma and to get #HurricaneStrong with these “How-To” videos and checklists.
http://flash.org/protect.php

[oren]

This Irma is a real monster. Every time the NHC forecast mild strengthening it jumps up a category.

[Gray-Wolf]

This Irma is a real monster. Every time the NHC forecast mild strengthening it jumps up a category.

Well she has run out of categories now!!!

Are we to see the Pacific behaviour of 'Super Typhoon' now transfer into our Basin ( Atlantic)?

Already Irma is entering another EWRC ( 5th or 6th since she hit cat one??) and being Cat 5 the only way she can strengthen further is to grow in size. Irma is now entering the area you expect to see storm rapidly intensify over so just how big will she end up? We've seen some SciFi  modelled pressures but now I have to wonder if we will see all storm records broken by her???

You cannot evacuate Florida and , as a giant retirement home, there are special needs to be catered for across the state. Trump picked the wrong year to plunder FEMA funding I feel?

[RikW]

Let's just hope that the same will happen as the Arctic did, dodging a bullet...

Seeing this I'm relieved that I'm living in the Netherlands where we don't have hurricane's...

[Sigmetnow]

Irma is now one of the strongest hurricanes in history.

#Irma is the 17th hurricane in the Atlantic on record to have max winds >= 175 mph. Atlantic max wind record is Allen (1980) at 190 mph.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905042432286277632

#Irma has now generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy during her lifetime than did Hurricane Katrina (2005).
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/904914235183906816

Image below;  GIF at the links.

[Sigmetnow]

Radar simulation from NOAA's flagship hurricane model (HWRF) for Category 5 Hurricane #Irma for next 5-days.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905078934194278405

GIF at the lnk.

[crandles]

Irma is now one of the strongest hurricanes in history.

#Irma is the 17th hurricane in the Atlantic on record to have max winds >= 175 mph. Atlantic max wind record is Allen (1980) at 190 mph.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905042432286277632

Now 180 mph making 7th strongest Edit 7th to reach that strength 5th= strongest
Allen___ 1980   190   305
"Labor Day" 1935 185 295
Gilbert__ 1988   185   295
Wilma__  2005   185   295
Mitch___ 1998   180   285
Rita____ 2005   180   285
Irma___ 2017   180   285
Janet___ 1955   175   280

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#By_highest_sustained_winds

(Table there only lists 16 storms including Irma to reach 175mph so is there a missing storm in list or was Irma 16th to reach >= 175? )

[Sigmetnow]

Irma is now one of the strongest hurricanes in history.

#Irma is the 17th hurricane in the Atlantic on record to have max winds >= 175 mph. Atlantic max wind record is Allen (1980) at 190 mph.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905042432286277632

Now 180 mph making 7th strongest
Allen___ 1980   190   305
"Labor Day" 1935 185 295
Gilbert__ 1988   185   295
Wilma__  2005   185   295
Mitch___ 1998   180   285
Rita____ 2005   180   285
Irma___ 2017   180   285
Janet___ 1955   175   280

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#By_highest_sustained_winds

(Table there only lists 16 storms including Irma to reach 175mph so is there a missing storm in list or was Irma 16th to reach >= 175? )

"Only four hurricanes in history were stronger."

[Sigmetnow]

NHC Update, 11am:
Hurricane Irma is now a high-end Category 5, a potentially catastrophic superstorm. Should remain Cat 4/5 til Cuba/Florida
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905084559083130884

Islands directly in the path of Irma:

Barbuda
St. Barts
Sint Maarten
Anguilla
Anegada
Virgin Gorda
Tortola
St. John

Expect Cat 5 damage.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905085974279049217

[Sigmetnow]

Regardless of exact track, #Irma will serve up monstrous waves along East Coast next weekend. This particular model projects 50-60ft waves!
https://mobile.twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/904368456648314880

Royal Caribbean changed their Allure of the Seas trip from E Caribbean to W Caribbean due to #Irma
https://twitter.com/toweringCU/status/904386473222447104

"Anthem of the Seas watch has been issued."
https://mobile.twitter.com/IrishEagle/status/904384861036785665

Update:

Allure of the Seas has arrived in Cozumel, Mexico.

Anthem of the Seas was in Maine; is now in Saint John, Canada.

[Sigmetnow]

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Ops:
#Irma is the strongest #hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea & Gulf of Mexico in NHC records hurricanes.gov
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/905080927948349440

Hurricane #Irma has maximized its potential intensity with ~29.5°C ocean water. Will continue over warmer water over 30°C as approaches FL
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/905087522392428544

[AbruptSLR]

Here is a Nullschool forecast issued today of surface winds on Sept 9th showing the locations of both Hurricanes Irma and Jose, lined up to deliver a one-two punch to the US:

[Sigmetnow]

Hurricane Irma is so strong it's starting to show up on seismometers in the Caribbean -- equipment designed to measure earthquakes.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905092034863693825

Seismometer recordings from the past 48 hours on Guadeloupe show Cat. 5 #Hurricane #Irma driving closer toward the Lesser Antilles
https://twitter.com/seismo_steve/status/905049088642703362


This part of the Caribbean has never experienced a hurricane as strong as Irma.
It will be the new storm of record for those in its path.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905092679620583425

Plotting all Atlantic hurricanes from 1851-2016 with sustained winds >= 180 mph... Irma is well outside of the record.
https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/905081031593689089

[Sigmetnow]

If there were a Category 6, Irma would be almost there.

Hurricane #Irma is still intensifying.  Now up to 155-knots (180 mph)
Extrapolating Saffir-Simpson scale, 158-knots would be Category 6.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/905082211443015680

[Sigmetnow]

(U.S.)  National Center for Atmospheric Research:

Our new hurricane rating index, which measures ability to cause damage (not just wind speed), rated Irma a 5.3, higher than Harvey's 5.2.
https://twitter.com/atmosnews/status/905093939966988288

For reference, Katrina (rated retrospectively) was a 4.9
https://twitter.com/atmosnews/status/905094580743413761

[gerontocrat]

Puerto Rico is a US Territory and the least able to deal with Irma.

[jai mitchell]

Central Pressure Irma measured at 927mb

[Sigmetnow]

Mandatory evacuation of the Florida Keys due to Hurricane #Irma will begin at sunrise Wednesday morning.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905107613720948736

The hurricane force winds in #Irma are wider than Florida. You won’t need a direct hit to get Wilma-type winds & storm surge on both coasts.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905100441658195971

tfw there might not be anywhere to evacuate to.
Current forecast has Irma traveling north, up the length of Florida
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905100441658195971

[Sigmetnow]

Look at the crashing waves currently in Melville Hall, Dominica. The center of Irma is still more than 200 miles away
https://twitter.com/jamaicaweather/status/905109252850806789

Other photos at the link.

[Sigmetnow]

Hurricane Harvey:  Arkema/pollution update.

Arkema Ignites Remaining Trailers at Texas Chemical Site, Evacuation Zone Lifted
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hurricane-harvey/arkema-blow-remaining-trailers-texas-chemical-site-so-work-can-n798486

Crosby residents return home after trouble at Arkema plant
http://www.khou.com/amp/news/local/crosby-residents-return-home-after-trouble-at-arkema-plant/470774613

[jai mitchell]

Central Pressure 926 sustained maximum wind speeds 185 mph

from the weather channel twitter:
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/905127057776144384

[Paddy]

Here is a Nullschool forecast issued today of surface winds on Sept 9th showing the locations of both Hurricanes Irma and Jose, lined up to deliver a one-two punch to the US:

Not just to the US, but also to many Caribbean countries significantly less well equipped to respond to it :-S

[Sigmetnow]

Pretty good clustering of tracks in 12z GFS ensembles. All signs continue to point toward major Florida effects.
https://twitter.com/spacecitywx/status/905117592683257856

[Sigmetnow]

"The danger of a Category 5 hurricane doesn’t only come from the strong winds. Irma is expected to raise sea levels by as much as seven to 11 feet in the Leeward Islands because of the storm surge and waves. Similar flooding could be seen in the British and US Virgin Islands, while Puerto Rico could see sea levels rise by one to four feet. Irma could also pour four to eight inches of rain, or as much as 12 inches in certain areas. “These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,” the National Hurricane Center said."

https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/5/16254858/hurricane-irma-category-5-forecasts

[Sigmetnow]

Miami Mayor:  We may be asking residents in zones A & B to begin evacuating as early as tomorrow. Find out in which zone you live: miamidade.gov
https://twitter.com/mayorgimenez/status/905136879405862913

Some folks having trouble with site here is pic of zone map
https://twitter.com/johnalemanmb/status/905141787349659649

[Sigmetnow]

If it were even possible, eye continues to become better defined, & eyewall cloud tops are cooling.
#Irma testing theoretical max intensity
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/905145697657290754

Eye continues to warm now +20°C ... if convection flares or clouds cool (more pink) then Hurricane #Irma should reach 200 mph.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/905144773643816960

[Sigmetnow]

NHC:
Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time: the primary graphic, which identifies the time window that users at individual locations can safely assume will be free from tropical-storm-force winds. Specifically, this is the time before which there is no more than a 1-in-10 (10 percent) chance of seeing the onset of sustained tropical-storm-force winds – the period during which preparations should ideally be completed for those with a low tolerance for risk.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145912.shtml?mltoa34#contents

[Sigmetnow]

FEMA Region 2:
Virginia USAR Water Rescue, HAZMAT & collapsed structures arrive at Muñiz Air Nat’l Guard Base, P.R., to assist during Hurricane #Irma.
https://mobile.twitter.com/femaregion2/status/905147164497674241

[Sigmetnow]

Wow. Hurricane #Irma is now expected to *exceed* the theoretical maximum intensity for a storm in its environment. Redefining the rules.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905154639242387461

18z SHIPS file for #IRMA has Irma at its potential intensity and exceeding it in 6 hours, good time to review how this quantity calculated
https://twitter.com/kieranbhatia/status/905152863046955009

[AbruptSLR]

It does seem like Hansen et al (2016)'s theory that super hurricanes roller boulders from the seafloor on to an island in the Bahamas is supported by Irma's record breaking behavior:

James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Paul Hearty, Reto Ruedy, Maxwell Kelley, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Gary Russell, George Tselioudis, Junji Cao, Eric Rignot, Isabella Velicogna, Blair Tormey, Bailey Donovan, Evgeniya Kandiano, Karina von Schuckmann, Pushker Kharecha, Allegra N. Legrande, Michael Bauer, and Kwok-Wai Lo (2016), "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous", Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761-3812, doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.html

[Sigmetnow]

A few notes from various weather outlets:


Mike Bettes, The Weather Channel, re Irma winds:  “You’re basically talking a 60-mile wide, F4 tornado.”


Friends around Miami, I need some help. I have an older cat that I'm trying to find a home for while I work Irma. Any ideas, pls let me know
https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/905094672309243906

Thanks to everyone who helped me out when I really needed it. Kitty has a safe place to stay.
https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/905151295467741188


Antigua Met Service:
There're staff members of the #MetOffice who were unable to get plywood to secure their homes; we are seeking assistance from anyone who has
https://twitter.com/anumetservice/status/905145828670660612

[AbruptSLR]

Scribbler adds color to many of the points already made in this thread about Irma:

Title: "Second Strongest Atlantic Hurricane on Record — Dangerous 185 MPH Irma Defies Intensity Projections"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/05/second-strongest-atlantic-hurricane-on-record-dangerous-185-mph-irma-defies-intensity-projections/

Extract: "Irma appears to be very efficiently tapping warmer than normal sea surfaces and a moister than normal atmosphere in order to spike its peak intensity. Two conditions set in play by human-caused climate change that are now helping to make storms like Irma both more intense and more dangerous. And it’s a condition that we need to take into account as we follow the track of Irma toward U.S. shores."

[Sigmetnow]

Back-to-back retired Atlantic #hurricane names have happened in 6 different years since 1954, including 3 straight from 2003-2005. #Irma
https://mobile.twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/905197902380847104

[Sigmetnow]

Ridiculous high resolution #VIIRS IR image of #Irma from this afternoon at 1704 UTC
https://mobile.twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/905190778351132672

[Sigmetnow]

From the Florida governor’s press conference:
Florida has stopped collecting road tolls, to ease evacuation efforts.  Next step would be to allow driving on outbound highway shoulders, which keeps inbound lanes open for pre-positioning supplies and relief efforts.  Last step is contra-flow (making all lanes the same, outbound direction).

Repeated directive:  Get ready Now.  Listen for local evacuation orders.

Images from the NHC 5 pm ET update.

[jai mitchell]

null school is showing a worst-case miami scenario with cat 4 wind speeds for a few hours

and

9.6 meter wave height (not including storm surge estimated to be 7-12 feet)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/10/1200Z/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=significant_wave_height/orthographic=-84.91,27.58,3000/loc=-79.943,26.220

Edit: not sure now, this looks to be much bigger than current wave heights so maybe it does include storm surge of up to 3 meters.

[Sigmetnow]

Tropical Depression 13 has formed in the SW Gulf of Mexico. People in the state of Veracruz should monitor closely  hurricanes.gov
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/905171545437474816

[Sigmetnow]

Another reason not to stay in a high rise in a hurricane: if you go up 25 floors you buy yourself winds another category stronger.
https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/905198922494291968

[wili]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/052342.shtml

Pressure down to 916...which should correspond to sustained winds at around 225 mph! But official wind speed is still 185. Thoughts?

[Sigmetnow]

Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH)

Our Caribbean Wave Watch Model generates high resolution wave forecasts for the region. You can check projected wave heights during the passage of Hurricane Irma and Tropical Storm Jose through the model at: http://ww3.cimh.edu.bb/0000z-ww3-outputs/

[jai mitchell]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/052342.shtml

Pressure down to 916...which should correspond to sustained winds at around 225 mph! But official wind speed is still 185. Thoughts?

Hurricane is passing through a very favorable region of pressure gradient in the upper atmosphere, this somewhat inflates the difference in the central pressure drop.  At least that is what some guy on the internet said. . . but I expect it to continue to intensify.  Models had central pressure going below 900 mb.

[wili]

Thanks, jai. Jeff Masters had claimed that some of the models showing the pressure going down that low should be ignored (the pressure part at least) because of faults in the models. But I'm pretty sure the actual numbers recently have been coming in lower than any of the model predictions, so who knows.

Ventrice: "...50% chance for Major Hurricane Force Winds from #Irma Sunday-Monday in #Miami"

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905241504716918784?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefault%26f%3Dwund%26t_i%3Dwww%252Fcat6%252Fextremely-dangerous-cat-5-irma-storms-leeward-islands%26t_u%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.wunderground.com%252Fcat6%252Fextremely-dangerous-cat-5-irma-storms-leeward-islands%26t_e%3DExtremely%2520Dangerous%2520Cat%25205%2520Irma%2520Storms%2520into%2520Leeward%2520Islands%2520by%2520Bob%2520Henson%2520%257C%2520Category%25206%26t_d%3DExtremely%2520Dangerous%2520Cat%25205%2520Irma%2520Storms%2520into%2520Leeward%2520Islands%2520by%2520Bob%2520Henson%2520%257C%2520Category%25206%2520%257C%2520Weather%2520Underground%26t_t%3DExtremely%2520Dangerous%2520Cat%25205%2520Irma%2520Storms%2520into%2520Leeward%2520Islands%2520by%2520Bob%2520Henson%2520%257C%2520Category%25206%26s_o%3Ddefault%23version%3D6f5768194208e9ee5ea7d3e7ec8ac168

[Csnavywx]

Winds are all about the pressure gradient, not necessarily the central pressure.

The wind/pressure relationship tables are just a rule of thumb.

[TerryM]

Winds are all about the pressure gradient, not necessarily the central pressure.

The wind/pressure relationship tables are just a rule of thumb.

Is this going to be as bad as the forecasts?
Should Floridians flee?


Terry

[wili]

The tiny island of Barbuda is now in the eye, apparently. If anyone survives and has means to transmit, perhaps by dawn we'll have pictures of just what kind of damage this thing can do.

Last recorded wind speeds were getting up to the 130 mph range.

[Pmt111500]

Irma's almost a cat6 by my wind speed scale too. http://erimaassa.blogspot.fi/2013/11/haiyan-scale.html?m=1
Afaik, so far none of these have landed at this speed, so we don't know the remaining structures. I guess Haiyan/yolanda landed as a high-end Cat5.

Latest from here: the eye has crossed Barbuda. If there are still working transmitters there might be some photos later today...

[Herfried]

The first landfall of the northern Eyewall at the southern tip of eastern Samar was at peak intensity of Haiyan / Yolanda. Even the sturdy palm trees were all broken and leveled. While it was hard to assess weather the horrific and total damage was done b wind or by crashing waves of the surge, it was absolutely resembling F3/4/5 tornado damage.
Guiuan was entirely wiped from the landscape... just picture google Guiuan Haiyan. Looks a lot like Moore, OK, 2013.

Also Irma did hit an Island - Barbados - at her (yet) üeak intensity. Which is still 10 mph shy of Haiyan.