Hurricane season 2017

[ritter]

The local media reports that 42% of the island is without power. Some branches are already falling from my trees.

Stay safe!

[Sigmetnow]

Des images de #Barbuda, première île frappée par #OuraganIRMA ce matin via ABS Television
https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/905553681268998144
Another photo at the link.

[Brigantine]

Does the churn from Irma cool or warm the ocean behind it?

Clearly visible cooling here. Harvey is also visible - faintly.

(As of now. Gif will update over time.)

[Sigmetnow]

Florida governor Rick Scott: I am working with fuel suppliers to assure all gas stations have fuel tomorrow.  If you are sheltering in place, take only what you need.  The same with food and water.

Be ready to evacuate when asked.  Do not wait!

Dr. Marshall Shepherd:
Bizarre to pull up my @wunderground App and see what I see for Miami winds Sunday...just do not see that often on an App
https://twitter.com/DrShepherd2013/status/905553246445608964

[Sigmetnow]

NWS Charleston, South Carolina:
It is critical that you PREPARE for potential significant to extreme impacts from #Irma NOW, while there is still time. #scwx #gawx
https://twitter.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/905562652725968896

[Sigmetnow]

#Barbuda (1600 habitants) "pratiquement inhabitable" d'après le Premier Ministre. #OuraganIRMA
[#Barbuda(1600 inhabitants) "almost uninhabitable" according to the Prime Minister. #OuraganIRMA ]
https://twitter.com/keraunosobs/status/905562101216944129

[Sigmetnow]

#Irma has now been a Cat. 5 hurricane for over 1.5 days - the most time spent at Cat. 5 for an Atlantic hurricane since Ivan (2004).
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905564062725029888
Radar GIF at the link.

[Sigmetnow]

Irma, Jose and Katia mark the first time since 2010 that three active hurricanes have been in the Atlantic.  https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/09/06/americas/three-hurricanes-atlantic-basin/index.html

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/905564451377643523

[Sigmetnow]

San Juan is having a really close brush with Irma's secondary eyewall right now. This is the peak of the storm for Puerto Rico.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905565397235232772
Radar GIF at the link.

[wili]

Barbuda:

--One, maybe two, deaths so far (surprisingly low!)
--95% of structures suffered some damage
-- 60% of residents are now homeless
-- Prime Minister says country will need outside assistance to rebuild, ''devastation is unlike anything I have ever seen, Barbuda is pretty much uninhabitable''
-- PM - "I felt like crying... one of the worst feelings I have ever felt in my entire life"
-- Also said that if Jose threatens the island, it will need to be fully evacuated; he expects it might be needed regardless

https://www.facebook.com/abstvradio/videos/1505370289562190/

[Sigmetnow]

If you have gas grill, esp with side burner, fill up extra propane tank to cook after power goes out. Invite those less fortunate. #Irma
https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/905571115476676608

[Sigmetnow]

This Twitter thread narrates a nail-biting flight into and out of San Juan just ahead of Hurricane Irma

A tense series of events as a Delta flight from New York attempts to land in San Juan, Puerto Rico and leave before Hurricane Irma hitsPhoto via @AirlineFlyer
https://mobile.twitter.com/i/moments/905487561182908416

[Sigmetnow]

Unbelievable.  #Irma has snapped all the cell towers on #Barbuda. That's reinforced steel - photo: ABS
https://twitter.com/jonny_hallam/status/905560117105614848

[Sigmetnow]

This is the WebCam that gave those amazing shots of airliners landing practically on the beach next to St. Maarten's airport.

#LIVE footage of #HurricaneIrma destroying MahoBeachCam.com in #StMaarten We will #rebuild!
https://twitter.com/PTZtv/status/905403131361730560
Video at the link.

[Sigmetnow]

NWS:  Find out now if you live in a hurricane evacuation zone. 
http://flash.org/2017EvacuationZones.pdf

[Sigmetnow]

Experimental Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds
AST =  Atlantic Standard Time;  currently the same as Eastern (Daylight) Time;  UTC-4

[Bruce Steele]

This is the same web-cam video Sigmetnow linked above for the Maho Beach Cam but it runs for 21 minutes. Same Web cam but starts earlier.



Now imagine 33 hours of this !  Everywhere Irma goes must sound like this. Hypnotic. I listened to this earlier and that wind was in my ears for a couple hours. No I-pad necessary.
 
And many thanks for Sigmetnows impressive series of hurricane links.

[pikaia]

Hot water ahead for Irma:



  https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=90912 

[nicibiene]

Quite a lot of endangered nuclear power plants seem to wait for Irma. 

http://enenews.com/worst-hurricane-ever-headed-straight-for-multiple-us-nuclear-plants-winds-up-to-225-mph-storm-to-cause-apocalyptic-damage-officials-making-fukushima-comparisons-videos

[Forest Dweller]

It seems FPL is planning 2 more reactors at Turkey Point as well because it's nice "clean energy".
Hmm, we shall see i s'pose...maybe someone can put a webcam up there quick and we can see even better.
Dutch newspaper reporting 8 dead in St. Maarten now and looting in progress.
90% buildings damaged/destroyed, at least 60% homeless.
Dutch navy/marines arriving today with priority to reopen the airport for relief efforts.
I don't see much news from the Virgin Islands yet.
It looks very grim especially for Turks & Caicos/Bahamas next.

[Archimid]

Long night, but is over. we got lucky again and only experienced winds  of about 40 mph. We are all ok. we lost cell signal at about 9 at night, but it is back already. There is no power, and dont expect any for maybe weeks, perhaps longer. There is water.

 The sun hasn't come out yet, but with a flashlight I can see fallen branches everywhere. Some neighbors were blocked in by a fallen tree, but we cleared it fast.  There is a fallen tree over the next street over but is tangled up with powerlines. we decided to wait for the power company to give the all clear before clearing it.

Now to get some coffee and wait for the sun to come out to start cleaning up.  The mango tree looks ok.  . 

I worry terribly for the people of florida, cuba and the islands on Irma's path. Anyone on the path of this monster must take extreme precautions.

[Clare]

Relieved to hear you &  yours are safe, Archimid, that's the main thing for now.
Best wishes, Clare in NZ

[Sigmetnow]

Thanks for the update, Archimid.  So glad to hear you escaped the worst. Stay safe!

[Sigmetnow]

The core of #Irma is expected to move near or over the Turks and Caicos and the SE Bahamas later today and tonight
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/905735605920944128

NWS Charleston, South Carolina:
5 AM Thu #Irma Update: Everyone in southeast SC/GA shud be preparing for major hurricane impacts early next week. #scwx #gawx #chswx #savwx
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/905737260515065856

NHC Atlantic Ops:
Hurricane watches will likely be issued for parts of FL today. TS winds expected to arrive in south FL and the Keys on Saturday #Irma
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/905736214367567878

Images from the NWS 5am update:

[Sigmetnow]

Hey Miami/south Florida - if you need a few fleeting moments of peace, go look at the sunrise for a second; it's incredible.
https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/905744887513051136
(No image)

[Sigmetnow]

Turks & Caicos, SE #Bahamas next in line for a direct hit/strike from #Irma. Life-threatening storm surge, devastating eyewall winds.
https://mobile.twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/905745246532849664

[Forest Dweller]

Yeah everyone, be careful out there and don't underestimate the threat.
In the meantime here's a good laugh;

Check out this beautiful luxury resort in St. Maarten on sale at Sotheby's for a mere 17 million US dollars.
You can rent it for 20,000 bucks a night.
Owner: Donald Trump
http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/detail/180-l-3989-qz6f4w/chateau-des-palmiers-terres-basses-mi-97150

Next up; Mar a Lago
Oh sweet irony.....

[Sigmetnow]

Only 25% of Florida gas stations have fuel currently, per Gas Buddy.
Stations: 7131
Stations with fuel: 1784

http://tracker.gasbuddy.com

Here's the availability in the Miami area. 

[Sigmetnow]

This was almost 8 hours ago:

#Irma has now had winds of 185 mph for 33 hrs - no other TC around the globe has been this strong for so long in satellite era (since 1966).
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905631742391762944

Previous record was 24 hr set by Supertyphoon Haiyan in 2013.

Here's a brief recap of some of #Irma's most notable meteorological records - valid as of 11pm EDT:
https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Records.pdf

[Sigmetnow]

The lighter side of hurricane preparations in Miami.

Even with Irma knocking at our door, we here in Miami are NOT FREAKING OUT AT ALL!
http://amp.miamiherald.com/living/liv-columns-blogs/dave-barry/article171702477.html

[Sigmetnow]

No matter where #Irma makes landfall, very heavy rain is likely. Flash flooding on streams and rivers will enhance coastal flooding.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905803956236013568

[Sigmetnow]

New watches for the islands for Hurricane Jose.   

It's so sad to see this... Makes me sick... New WATCHES for areas JUST HIT by #Irma. #Jose is coming...
https://twitter.com/AlexCorderoWX/status/905806567718756353

[Sigmetnow]

Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch for the South Florida Peninsula, including Naples, Key West, Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, Palm Beach #Irma

[Sigmetnow]

12Z early model  intensity and track forecast, 06Z GFS trk fcst, and satellite image of #IRMA shows SE Florida receiving cat 4 storm sunday
https://twitter.com/KieranBhatia/status/905808130382204930

[Sigmetnow]

"Follow local evacuation orders, do not wait."

Heavy traffic is expected w/ evacuations; if you're planning on evacuating, leave now & monitor @fl511_state for traffic updates #FLPrepares
https://mobile.twitter.com/FLSERT/status/905807894117060608

Miami-Dade Residents! Here are the evacuation centers available. Remember to call 311 or (305) 468-5402 to find out which centers are open.
https://mobile.twitter.com/jeanmonestime/status/905807324056608770

[AbruptSLR]

The linked Wunderground article describes the catastrophic storm surge risk from Miami to South Carolina.  Also, I have seen nullschool forecasts of over 45-ft high significant wave heights hitting Miami if the current forecasts hold:

Title: "Hurricane Irma an Extreme Storm Surge Threat to the U.S. and Bahamas"

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-extreme-storm-surge-threat-us-and-bahamas

Extract: "A potentially catastrophic storm surge for Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina
If Irma makes a trek up the East Coast from Miami to southern South Carolina as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, as the models currently suggest, the portions of the coast that the eyewall touches will potentially see a massive and catastrophic storm surge, breaking all-time storm surge records and causing many billions of dollars in damage. Even areas up to a hundred miles to the north of where the center makes landfall could potentially see record storm surges. The area of most concern is the northern coast of Florida, the coast of Georgia, and the southern coast of South Carolina, due to the concave shape of the coast, which will act to funnel and concentrate the storm surge to ridiculous heights. If we look at wunderground’s storm surge maps for the U.S. East Coast, we see that in a worst-case Category 3 hurricane hitting at high tide, the storm tide (the combined effect of the storm surge and the tide) ranges from 17 – 20’ above ground along the northern coast of Florida, and 18 – 23 feet above ground along the Georgia coast. If Irma is a Cat 4, these numbers increase to 22 – 28 feet for the coast of Georgia. This is a Katrina-level storm surge, the kind that causes incredible destruction and mass casualties among those foolish enough to refuse to evacuate."

See also nullschool significant wave height forecasts:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/10/1200Z/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=significant_wave_height/orthographic=-79.23,28.70,2338

[Martin Gisser]

So it will hit during high tide?

[SteveMDFP]

Absolutely mind-boggling.
If one wanted to devastate Houston with a hurricane, you couldn't *design* a more effective storm than Harvey.

It's looking the same for Irma for devastating Miami and the entire Florida economy.  Charleston, SC seems likely to be devastated as well.

Florida thrives on its reputation for idyllic weather and big, beautiful, long beaches.  Much of the Atlantic coast of Florida *already* has had problems with progressive beach erosion.  Sand gets imported and dredged from far away already.  Entire beach communities may suddenly have no beach at all.

Its almost as if Mother Nature has decided to declare war against the SE US.  And Trump, too, with two major properties of his set to be devastated.

With lots of advance warning for Florida, I'm cautiously optimistic that loss of life will be relatively low.

[AbruptSLR]

So it will hit during high tide?

Martin,

Your question is a function of how fast the hurricane moves, what location you are concerned about and what combination of impacts (including their phase relationships) that you are concerned about; and probability functions for combining such events.

If you are concerned about waves hitting Miami (and where the waves will break); the two attached GFS forecasts show a 6hr window with high waves near Miami for the tides to fluctuate with-in.

Best,
ASLR

[Martin Gisser]

Yeah everyone, be careful out there and don't underestimate the threat.
In the meantime here's a good laugh;

Check out this beautiful luxury resort in St. Maarten on sale at Sotheby's for a mere 17 million US dollars.
You can rent it for 20,000 bucks a night.
Owner: Donald Trump
http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/detail/180-l-3989-qz6f4w/chateau-des-palmiers-terres-basses-mi-97150

Next up; Mar a Lago
Oh sweet irony.....

Oh yeah! And this might bankrupt Trump, if he isn't already.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/06/hurricane-irma-just-slammed-into-trumps-caribbean-estate-and-is-headed-toward-his-florida-properties/

Among the structures badly damaged were a group of government buildings on the island. "We know that the four most solid buildings on the island have been destroyed, which means that more rustic structures have probably been completely or partially destroyed," French Interior Minister Gerard Collomb told AFP.

[AbruptSLR]

Next up; Mar a Lago
Oh sweet irony.....

Oh yeah! And this might bankrupt Trump, if he isn't already.

Mar-a-Lago will have a front row seat for all the Irma action.

[Martin Gisser]

It might not only bankrupt Trump. It might pop the Miami housing bubble. This hurricane season has already impacted politics (Trump's recent artful deal with Pelosi and Schumer). Whatabout a financial catastrophe?

[Archimid]

I'm stealing that FU Earth image.

[Sigmetnow]

WATCH: Gov. Scott: "This storm is wider than our entire state"
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905823782450987008
Video clip at link.

How important is gas in South #Florida ahead of #HurricaneIrma?
Tankers are getting escorts by law enforcement. @WPTV
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905822774761009152
Video clip at the link.

Hurricane Irma is expected to cut power to more than 2.5 million homes, including nearly half of Miami.
Current power outage forecasts for the Continental U.S. from researchers:
https://t.co/uxnbUb7gKb
https://twitter.com/bryanwx/status/905810874346196992

Hurricane #Irma expected to bring 5-10ft storm surge and 1-2ft of rain to South Florida—a catastrophe.
Peak impacts Saturday-Sunday-Monday.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905813745670246405

[Sigmetnow]

Hurricane watch issued for South Florida, as Hurricane Irma threatens region

“It’s an extreme hurricane risk,” said Bryan Norcross, senior hurricane specialist at The Weather Channel, who became famous as a Miami weather forecaster in Hurricane Andrew. “Everybody should really be ready as if Hurricane Andrew was going to hit them.”

“The odds are definitely looking worse for the east coast of Florida, given the latest set of model runs,” said Jeff Masters, meteorology director for the website Weather Underground, who used to fly on NOAA Hurricane Hunters. “It’s unusual to have the top four models all give the same track in advance, and they’re all doing that now. And they’re all saying it’s going to hit you guys squarely on Sunday.”

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/fl-reg-hurricane-irma-thursday-20170907-story,amp.html

[Sigmetnow]

Maps via Brian Tang's @UAlbanyDAES show #GFS has had a consistent poleward bias with #Irma. The #ECMWF in contrast has been spot on.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905822228142579712

[Twitter] Thread and context on #Irma's growing threat to South Florida from NBC Miami's chief meteorologist
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905832528615014401
Thread here:
https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/905782508423434240

[Sigmetnow]

3 hurricanes threatening land simultaneously in the W Atlantic Basin. Never seen anything like this in the modern record #Irma #Jose #Katia
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/905825921243938817
Radar GIF at the link.

[Sigmetnow]

11am update.

Incredibly, with #Jose on the way, another hurricane watch was just issued for the island of Barbuda -- its 2nd major hurricane in 3 days.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905809145974149121

[Sigmetnow]

Houston reservoirs update:

Barker pool at 96.26 ft and falling. #houwx #hounews
https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/905847240866004995

Addicks pool at 103.11ft and falling. #houwx #hounews
https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/905847008535117824

Release rates:
Barker: 3970cfs.  Addicks: 6,730cfs. COE hopes to continue to reduce releases over the next 24 hrs
https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/905848027008692224

[AbruptSLR]

Scribbler indicates that the extreme ridge-trough patterns in the Jet Stream induced by Arctic Amplification from climate change is increasing the probability that Irma will impact Florida and the Southeast US coast:

Title: "A Visibly Extreme Jet Stream in Advance of Irma"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/07/a-visibly-extreme-jet-stream-in-advance-of-irma/

Extract: "And as we sit here hoping and praying that Irma will re-curve away from the U.S. east coast, we should consider how polar warming may be helping to make such a terrible strike more likely — increasing risks to so many people and to so much that we all hold dear."