Happy New Year 2024 (and sorry for the forum being offline some hours) /DM
Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes....“The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more hurricane activity this year. Also, warmer sea surface temperatures tend to fuel hurricanes as they move across the ocean. However, the climate models are showing considerable uncertainty, which is reflected in the comparable probabilities for an above-normal and near-normal season....
The 2017 hurricane season started Thursday without anyone in charge at the two federal agencies most involved in dealing with hurricanes, National Public Radio notes.Five months after Donald J. Trump was sworn in as president, no one has taken the reins at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which is in charge of preparing for and then dealing with the aftermath of a hurricane. The last FEMA boss was a Florida man, W. Craig Fugate, who departed in January after seven years on the job. Fugate previously served as the head of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. Trump finally nominated someone at the end of April, but he has yet to be confirmed.Trump meanwhile has made no move to appoint a new boss at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the agency in charge of the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service, which provide hurricane forecasts and hurricane warnings in advance of a storm.Incidentally, NOAA Is predicting an above-average hurricane season this year. Trump's proposed budget has targeted both agencies for cuts.
Two shots at the first tropical storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season:
Arlene was pre-season April 20/21 but is it conventional to (unofficially?) extend the season back so that Arlene is the first tropical storm of the 2017 season?
Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.These numbers include Tropical Storm Arlene, a rare pre-season storm that formed over the eastern Atlantic in April.
The far side of Lake Champlain looks to get that ~250mm within a 24 hour period.(repost)http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1951.msg117609.html#msg117609
Yes, really.“Because it’s 2017, we might have Tropical Storm Don and Tropical Storm Hilary at the same time.”https://grist.org/briefly/because-its-2017-we-might-have-tropical-storm-don-and-tropical-storm-hilary-at-the-same-time/
The north Pacific Ocean pulled off an impressive feat with eight tropical cyclones spinning at one time Saturday, July 22, something that hasn't been accomplished in more than four decades.
NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate that Tropical Storm Emily made landfall with peak sustained winds of 45 mph at 10:45 AM EDT (1445 UTC) Monday on Anna Maria Island, just west of Bradenton, Florida. Emily spun into life on Monday morning at 8 am EDT just off the Gulf Coast of Florida. Emily’s formation came just 48 hours after receiving no mention at all as a possible threat in the National Hurricane Center’s 8 am Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook. Emily erupted along the Gulf of Mexico portion of a cold front that had pushed over Florida during the weekend, and took full advantage of very warm water temperatures near 30°C (86°F). Development was not expected due to high wind shear of 20 – 30 knots, plus very dry air at mid-levels of the atmosphere, where the relative humidity was near 45%. Emily formed so quickly and unexpectedly that the Hurricane Hunters never flew into the storm. It is very unusual for a named storm to make landfall in the U.S. without the Hurricane Hunters ever sampling the storm.
First post here, hello all!
Michael Lowry: Strong words today from @NOAA as we enter the heart of #hurricane season. Regardless, it only takes one ☝️ http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/early-season-storms-one-indicator-of-active-atlantic-hurricane-season-aheadhttps://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/895303525181394944"Above-normal season likely with 14 to 19 named storms.""The season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010."
Tropical Storm Harvey is the 8th named storm of hurricane season, more than 5 weeks ahead of schedule. 8th storm typically doesn't form until Sep 24th.Expected to be ~hurricane strength near Central America on Monday.https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/898289578771046400Radar loop at the link.
Quote from: Sigmetnow on August 18, 2017, 12:47:15 AMTropical Storm Harvey is the 8th named storm of hurricane season, more than 5 weeks ahead of schedule. 8th storm typically doesn't form until Sep 24th.Expected to be ~hurricane strength near Central America on Monday.https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/898289578771046400Radar loop at the link.Not sure where the twitter got their information, but the average date, averaged over the past 30 years, for the 8th tropical development has been Sept. 4. Half the length claimed on the twitter post. Perhaps there was some sort of quirk associated with those years that did not produce eight tropical storms. Thus far, 2017 has had more tropical development than the average; 8 compared to 5.4, with only four years experiencing their eighth at an earlier date. But you are only looking at one particular measure of tropical activity. The intensity of the storms has been near average. 2017 has spawned two hurricanes, but no major hurricanes. The 30-year average to date has been 1.4 hurricanes, with one major hurricane every two years. It is still early in season, and things could change dramatically in the next month. There does appear to be favorability for the development of another storm in the next week.
Quote from: Daniel B. on August 18, 2017, 05:06:15 PMQuote from: Sigmetnow on August 18, 2017, 12:47:15 AMTropical Storm Harvey is the 8th named storm of hurricane season, more than 5 weeks ahead of schedule. 8th storm typically doesn't form until Sep 24th.Expected to be ~hurricane strength near Central America on Monday.https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/898289578771046400Radar loop at the link.Not sure where the twitter got their information, but the average date, averaged over the past 30 years, for the 8th tropical development has been Sept. 4. Half the length claimed on the twitter post. Perhaps there was some sort of quirk associated with those years that did not produce eight tropical storms. Thus far, 2017 has had more tropical development than the average; 8 compared to 5.4, with only four years experiencing their eighth at an earlier date. But you are only looking at one particular measure of tropical activity. The intensity of the storms has been near average. 2017 has spawned two hurricanes, but no major hurricanes. The 30-year average to date has been 1.4 hurricanes, with one major hurricane every two years. It is still early in season, and things could change dramatically in the next month. There does appear to be favorability for the development of another storm in the next week.Holthaus refers to the eighth "named storm," which requires tropical storm strength with winds of 39 mph/63kph. Not all tropical systems that form reach that criteria.
If the emerging projections verify for Harvey, we could see a catastrophe for SE Texas and along the Louisiana coast, from the precipitation alone. What remains to be seen is if the reinvigorated cyclone behaves similar to others over the past few years, feeding off a loaded atmosphere and excessively warm waters to intensify and bring storm surge and winds as additional factors.
