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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #350 on: August 31, 2017, 03:15:45 PM »
I post operational runs for curiosity only, but ensembles this far out are preferred.  And even so it's too far out for the ensembles to be anything but directional.  This is shaping up to be an ominous scenario.

"Major development: The best ECMWF EPS members via initialization score are west of ensemble mean track, taking #Irma into the Gulf of Mexico "

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/903240235525529600

Lord M Vader

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #351 on: August 31, 2017, 04:59:34 PM »
Irma has rapidly strengthened and is now a Category 2 hurricane. Continued strengthening is anticipated during the next couple of days and Irma should become a major hurricane later today....

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #352 on: August 31, 2017, 05:08:55 PM »
If you breathe it in, we don't think it will kill you.

Texas chemical plant: Smoke from the fire is “noxious.” Toxicity is “a relative thing”
https://twitter.com/cnn/status/903262929331597313
Video clip from press briefing.

Harvey aftermath: More chemical fires possible as city loses clean water
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/us/harvey-houston-texas-flood/index.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #353 on: August 31, 2017, 05:19:32 PM »
Nice catch, Oren. Finally, a beautiful drone flight of the overspilling Addicks Reservoir past the "armored" emergency spillway showing surrounding neighborhoods, somewhat after the high water.
<snip>

I'm surprised the drone didn't catch anyone patrolling the berms.  I would expect they'd have people out there monitoring the situation constantly. :o
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oren

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #354 on: August 31, 2017, 06:02:53 PM »
Nice catch, Oren. Finally, a beautiful drone flight of the overspilling Addicks Reservoir past the "armored" emergency spillway showing surrounding neighborhoods, somewhat after the high water.
<snip>

I'm surprised the drone didn't catch anyone patrolling the berms.  I would expect they'd have people out there monitoring the situation constantly. :o
I think I could spot a person standing on the levee next to the overtopping.

Juan C. García

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #355 on: August 31, 2017, 06:31:28 PM »
Maybe we should focus a little in what it is happening in Asía. We know that regions like Bangladesh are going to have a huge impact with AGW...  :(

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=57403#.Wag4BtGQzIU

Quote
41 million people have been affected by flooding...

_______________________________

Edit: Excused me, seems that the flooding is caused by torrential monsoon rains, not hurricane involved (so the comment is off topic, it belongs to "Floods", in which is being treated).
« Last Edit: September 01, 2017, 03:38:35 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #356 on: August 31, 2017, 06:38:07 PM »
I think Irma will be a physically large system as well as high Cat? Should she stay south then Cat5 would seem assured? There is some cooler waters in her path but if she reaches major status before she reaches that area she will not notice it that much?

One positive is that she will mess up the ocean for the three waves following behind and so limit their chances of forming into anything nasty.

There is still a chance of Jose forming in the GOM next week. If Irma makes it into the GOM then they will interact making Forecasting their paths as nightmare!
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ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #357 on: August 31, 2017, 07:50:15 PM »
Life in space still requires assistance from the ground.  Houston, you have a problem.

How NASA kept the International Space Station flying while Harvey hit Mission Control
https://www.theverge.com/2017/8/31/16228906/nasa-mission-control-center-tropical-storm-harvey-international-space-station




When a furniture showroom becomes a storm shelter
Quote
Sleeping soundly in the mattress room next to the evacuees are about 60 National Guard troops. They rest in between shifts of rescuing Houstonians from dangerous floodwaters.

"(The troops) are sleeping on the best Tempur-Pedic mattresses that are on the market," store employee Dave Marchione says. "And I'll tell you what -- those are some happy soldiers."
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/30/us/gallery-furniture-store-houston-shelter/index.html
« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 08:03:13 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #358 on: August 31, 2017, 07:56:26 PM »
Maybe we should focus a little in what it is happening in Asía. We know that regions like Bangladesh are going to have a huge impact with AGW...  :(

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=57403#.Wag4BtGQzIU

Quote
41 million people have been affected by flooding...

See also the Floods thread for information on monsoon and other flooding not necessarily caused by hurricanes/typhoons.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #359 on: August 31, 2017, 08:39:20 PM »
 Tweeted a few minutes ago:

Jeff, What is the status of Integrity of Barker & Addicks dams.

Jeff Lindner, Meteorologist with the Harris County Flood Control District:
"There are no issues with the dams, they are being checked constantly by COE staff"
https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/903322276195700736
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A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #360 on: August 31, 2017, 09:44:25 PM »
Quote
anyone patrolling the berms. expect people out there monitoring the situation constantly. spot a person standing on the levee next to the overtopping.
The Addicks berm is like 11.7 miles long, Barker 13 miles; the Corps does monitor 24/7 during events like this that are filling the reservoirs but this likely amounts to a vehicular patrol.

On major Corps dams, like the 13 above the Willamette Valley in Oregon or or BuRec dams like Glen Canyon Dam in Arizona, security is extremely tight, partly post-911 stuff but mostly homegrown 'threats' from steelhead fishermen, tribal members, environmentalists, and assorted crazies.

You can not get anywhere near the dams on foot or by boat and they would not allow drone overflights. Upon taking a tour inside the larger dams, you can get yourself in a heap of trouble just by making wisecracks (ahem).

The berm had cavities under the conduits but those got repairs after the last two years of flooding. They are keeping an eye on the many seeps and no doubt are prepare to inject grout at very short notice, these berms are flaky but not remotely as bad as the Mosul dam.

Back to Houston and all the media kumbaya, the damage will take on ethnic, racial and income disparity flavors: the red dots (25 white people) are disjoint from the orange dots (25 hispanics) which are disjoint from blue dots (25 blacks) which are disjoint from the green dots (25 asians). Not a melting pot by any means.

Now overlay that with Zillow housing price, the insured, and flood damage maps and take the product to see where the recovery burden will fall.

Houston is what's called a majority minority city. Harvey won't change anything: white developers will still run the city, business as usual will continue. (I lived there for three years.)
« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 10:22:22 PM by A-Team »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #361 on: August 31, 2017, 11:08:37 PM »
White House now estimates 100,000 homes destroyed by Harvey.
https://twitter.com/peteralexander/status/903333769318461440

This will likely increase.
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wehappyfew

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #362 on: September 01, 2017, 12:04:14 AM »
Fallout from Harvey - closed refineries:

In driving around the DFW area running errands today, only two gas stations had any fuel, and lines were very long, with angry drivers. Prices up about $0.50.

Every auto parts store, walmart, etc is out of gas cans.

Traffic seemed heavier than usual, maybe more people desperately using up their remaining fuel to drive around looking for an open gas station.

I avoided looking in the rear-view mirror - my smug face must have been unbearable, as I scooted along on battery power in my 500e.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #363 on: September 01, 2017, 12:47:24 AM »
Wow. Irma is now a major hurricane, just 36 hours after forming. Keep watching this one closely.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/903385512391651328
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #364 on: September 01, 2017, 01:52:05 AM »
Some models show #Irma growing nearly as strong as any Atlantic hurricane ever has, on record. Potential tracks are ominous. Bad feeling.

Major Hurricane Irma now ... I'd be surprised if storm didn't become Cat 5 during next 5-7 days. Many EPS ensembles are very intense.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/903357153582481410
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #365 on: September 01, 2017, 02:08:00 AM »
Those 180+ knot outputs were apparently data conversion errors.  Nonetheless, with fewer out to sea solutions Irma is looking more likely to have a substantial impact wherever it ends up.


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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #366 on: September 01, 2017, 02:42:34 AM »
A new analysis from the University of Wisconsin’s Space Science and Engineering Center has determined that Harvey is a 1-in-1,000-year flood event that has overwhelmed an enormous section of  Southeast Texas equivalent in size to New Jersey.

There is nothing in the historical record that rivals this, according to Shane Hubbard, the Wisconsin researcher who made and mapped this calculation. “In looking at many of these events [in the United States], I’ve never seen anything of this magnitude or size,” he said. “This is something that hasn’t happened in our modern era of observations.”


Harvey is a 1,000-year flood event unprecedented in scale
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/31/harvey-is-a-1000-year-flood-event-unprecedented-in-scale/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #367 on: September 01, 2017, 03:00:43 AM »
Pollutants....  :(

Wow look at this! You can actually see the flood waters flowing out of Houston and into The Gulf of Mexico from space! #harvey
https://mobile.twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/903347889203761153


Much later edit:

As A-Team notes below, image is from NASA Worldview.  It is available here:
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=90873&src=iotdssi
« Last Edit: September 05, 2017, 12:43:13 AM by Sigmetnow »
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #368 on: September 01, 2017, 06:56:53 AM »
Again it's just one operational run and one solution of many to come over the next 10 days from multiple models, but the 0z GFS would strike a crippling blow on the US.  It takes a cat 4 with circa 140 mph winds and a giant surge up the Chesapeake Bay.  The Navy base in Norfolk would be wrecked (although the fleet would be sent to sea), and there would be significant damage and disruption in DC, Baltimore, Philly and NY, and points inland with a likely large wind field and battering waves and surge along the coast.  Thankfully this solution is unlikely to verify.

Rippleillusion

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #369 on: September 01, 2017, 07:43:03 AM »
Again it's just one operational run and one solution of many to come over the next 10 days from multiple models, but the 0z GFS would strike a crippling blow on the US.  It takes a cat 4 with circa 140 mph winds and a giant surge up the Chesapeake Bay.  The Navy base in Norfolk would be wrecked (although the fleet would be sent to sea), and there would be significant damage and disruption in DC, Baltimore, Philly and NY, and points inland with a likely large wind field and battering waves and surge along the coast.  Thankfully this solution is unlikely to verify.

If Harvey doesn't become the straw that breaks the camels back, I would put my money on that one. Holy cow. As you say, its unlikely. But wherever this thing ends up theres going to be trouble.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #370 on: September 01, 2017, 12:54:46 PM »
The political fall-out from Harvey will commence / has commenced. Texan Republican Congressmen are /will be in a bind.

"The congressional members in Texas are hypocrites," New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), a Trump ally, said this week. "I said back in 2012, they’d be proven to be hypocrites. It was just a matter of time." (re the Sandy relief bill)

GOTO -
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-energy-202/2017/08/30/the-energy-202-we-asked-texas-republicans-about-harvey-and-climate-change-only-one-answered/59a5a73d30fb043976501511/?utm_term=.dd4584948eed

IRMA may or may not hit the USA. Meanwhile the chances of it hitting parts of the Caribbean as a cat4 or cat5 are high. If Haiti is hit then one of the "places becoming less liveable" may become "a place unliveable".
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #371 on: September 01, 2017, 01:33:10 PM »
"Buffalo Bayou to remain at record level; Barker, Addicks reservoirs have peaked"

Quote
Harris County Flood Control District says it'll be like that for some time as water from the Addicks reservoir flushes into Buffalo Bayou. Officials estimate the situation could remain like this for up to 2 weeks as they drain Addicks.

The water levels at the Addicks and Barker reservoirs have crested, meaning officials do not expect conditions there to worsen.
http://www.khou.com/weather/hurricanes/hurricane-harvey/controlled-release-of-barker-addicks-reservoirs-to-impact-thousands/468348109
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jai mitchell

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #372 on: September 01, 2017, 05:10:41 PM »
Again it's just one operational run and one solution of many to come over the next 10 days from multiple models, but the 0z GFS would strike a crippling blow on the US.  It takes a cat 4 with circa 140 mph winds and a giant surge up the Chesapeake Bay.  The Navy base in Norfolk would be wrecked (although the fleet would be sent to sea), and there would be significant damage and disruption in DC, Baltimore, Philly and NY, and points inland with a likely large wind field and battering waves and surge along the coast.  Thankfully this solution is unlikely to verify.

If Harvey doesn't become the straw that breaks the camels back, I would put my money on that one. Holy cow. As you say, its unlikely. But wherever this thing ends up theres going to be trouble.

much too early to say, I am hoping that a large low pressure moving currently through the north east U.S. will shift the dominant high pressure over the Atlantic further east and draw Irma up north prior to hitting Cuba.  That would be the best case scenario and is the reason for the current deviation between GFS and EURO models (EURO holding Irma further south).
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #373 on: September 01, 2017, 05:58:18 PM »
Latest Euro ensemble tracks.

"Good bet at a casino is an intense Hurricane Irma at Cat 4 or 5.  But it's still red or black on U.S. impacts.  Hope it's a "fish storm"

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/903611653664669697



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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #374 on: September 01, 2017, 06:12:57 PM »
"The best case scenario is for Irma to hit Cuba" ? Charming.
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #375 on: September 01, 2017, 06:41:02 PM »
"The best case scenario is for Irma to hit Cuba" ? Charming.

I don't think he/she is suggesting that.  Rather, the upper airflow pulls Irma north before the trajectory takes it directly into Cuba.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #376 on: September 01, 2017, 07:19:16 PM »
Quote
Wow look at this! You can actually see the flood waters flowing out of Houston and into The Gulf of Mexico from space!
Sigh, another tv journalist tweeting away without providing a timestamp, credit or source for the satellite material. That means everyone else must spend hours chasing down Landsats or Sentinel-1ABs trying to find the cloud-free scene at high resolution.

It turns out to be a Modis Terra 250m available at WorldView (momentarily down).  Also seen on GOES16 https://tinyurl.com/ycfxgl69. Not good enough, we need the Sentinels here.

There'll be a big bathtub ring of mud defining the high water mark. Since houses in Houston are almost always higher than their lawns, if the street flooded but the lawn is still green, that house did not flood. Ditto for cars on that driveway. So this is a very unusual situation wherein oblique aerial photos are not needed for a damage assessment.

The flooded cars are probably totaled from the perspective of the insurance company, meaning the title gets automatically changed to 'salvage' and later to 'rebuilt' if someone can get them running again. These will be wholesaled at Denver auctions and redistributed all over the US with 'clean' titles and wiped carfax histories to unwary buyers.

It is far too early for the White House to talk about the extent of damage -- 100k homes is just a wild guess. The real issue may be road beds, bridges, sewer and water lines. Costs to fix those are astronomic. However these these strong, self-reliant, white evangelical trump-voting (every single Gulf Coast county!) coastal Americans will reject anything that smacks of a gov't handout (?) as they have always done (?).

In the early days of Harvey, it was reported literally hundreds of times that GOES-16 was "not operational", even as the scientist or reporter was posting imagery from an obviously fully functioning satellite.

The geostationary GOES-16 was actually launched in November 2016 and became operational shortly thereafter (for those not needing the solar instruments, quantitative calibration or final East positioning). Its imagery packets are beamed down compressed but not encrypted and anyone underneath can download and unpack them at their home. That's operational from my perspective.

The advanced baseline imager is the primary weather instrument on GOES-16. It has sixteen spectral bands: two visible, four near-infrared and ten infrared. It's at higher bit depth and 4x better   ground resolution than previous satellites in the series. Being 35,786 km up, it cannot take high resolution ground photos like Landsat or Sentinel.

The GOES-16 Geostationary Lightning Mapper images intra-cloud lightning 24/7 of severe storms even when high cirrus clouds obscure underlying convection from the ABI. Flash rate correlates with increased storm intensity. The  telescopic CCD camera is tuned to 777.4 nm with a spatial resolution of 8 km, capturing 500 frames per second.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2017, 09:59:29 PM by A-Team »

jai mitchell

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #377 on: September 01, 2017, 07:26:06 PM »
Very long Range GFS shows Irma as a major hurricane landfall in New England.

Caveat: extremely low reliability at such a long range forecast, could be very different in a few days.

https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/903406333835198464
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #378 on: September 01, 2017, 07:38:47 PM »
30 minutes ago:

City of Houston:
US Army Corps of Engineers says water releases into Buffalo Bayou on west side necessary to avoid larger catastrophe in next rain.
https://twitter.com/sylvesterturner/status/903663927720108032

REPEATING: Asking residents w/ water in homes to leave if S of I-10, W of Gessner, N of Briarforest, E of reservoirs.

If not enough heeding of voluntary evacuation request, mandatory order will be considered.

But only residences with water on first floor. Water may stay there for two weeks.

Because U.S. Army Corps of Engineers must release reservoir water for 15 days.

No need to leave west Houston zone if no water in your home now.

Second story housing and above will not be safe. Apartments therefore are covered by evacuation request.

City will provide transportation to shelter at NRG complex in S. Houston
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #379 on: September 01, 2017, 07:51:39 PM »
As if the real Irma forecasts weren't bad enough, someone posted a totally fake one. Image at the Twitter link.

It's a federal crime to publish a hoax forecast or warning that makes it look like it was issued by the NWS or NOAA. https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2074

https://twitter.com/wxdam/status/903455116350631936
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #380 on: September 01, 2017, 08:01:33 PM »
Odds that #Irma will eventually pose major threat to US are rising. But still ~60% chance of landfall less than Cat 3 or a curve out to sea.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/903674563648557056

Over the past 4 cycles, the ECMWF EPS has consistently risen probabilities (now 40%) for a Major Hurricane (#Irma) to approach the Eastrn US
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/903655974057148416
GIF at the link.
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aperson

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #381 on: September 01, 2017, 08:43:10 PM »
From Houston's Hydrologist: https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/903687392544083968

"It is estimated that the 47.4 inches of rainfall in 4 days on Clear Creek equates to a 40,000 year event"

Seems the climate dice are loaded enough that we can start pointing to single events as signifiers of climate change.
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #382 on: September 01, 2017, 09:00:09 PM »
The 12z Euro op has a borderline cat 5 100 miles offshore Daytona Beach and heading for the upper FLA peninsula or GA/SC.  Ensembles will be out shortly.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #383 on: September 01, 2017, 09:13:24 PM »
Gerontocrat:
Quote
” "The best case scenario is for Irma to hit Cuba" ? Charming.”

Apparently, the Cubans have developed evacuation plans even for their cattle. Not sure this applies in the Southern US even for the people suffering as we speak.


pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #384 on: September 01, 2017, 09:55:17 PM »
Still too far out for high confidence, but positive trends with a recurve emphasis at 240h, and the center progressing north of the Leeward Islands at 120h

https://mobile.twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/903704882934423554

A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #385 on: September 01, 2017, 10:27:37 PM »
Whoa, wet and muddy Houston aftermath on Sentinel-2AB playground. The overtopped berm on Addicks has a white rectangular service building at its end.

https://tinyurl.com/ybp4uqkr

Quote
Guardian on Friday 1 Sep 17 14.31 EDT: The Texas department of public safety said more than 185,000 homes were damaged and 9,000 destroyed, estimates which are likely to rise once receding waters give authorities access to heavily populated suburbs.

With swollen rivers and reservoirs still risking potentially deadly flooding, the Red Cross said the number of people in shelters across the region had increased to 42,000.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2017, 01:45:03 PM by A-Team »

pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #386 on: September 02, 2017, 12:36:43 AM »
18z GFS ops.  The models are having no shortage of extreme disaster scenarios, and this is the worst one yet.

Rippleillusion

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #387 on: September 02, 2017, 12:43:19 AM »
18z GFS ops.  The models are having no shortage of extreme disaster scenarios, and this is the worst one yet.

Oh my word...

pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #388 on: September 02, 2017, 12:44:20 AM »
That would probably be a $500 billion disaster, maybe a trillion.  The loss of life would be staggering.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #389 on: September 02, 2017, 01:52:10 AM »
I just finished a novel with a category five hurricane hitting New York in 2032, I may have to change that part of the story ... I thought I was being a little pessimistic.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #390 on: September 02, 2017, 02:08:11 AM »
 ::)

After Harvey, the Trump administration reconsiders flood rules it just rolled back
Quote
A couple of weeks ago President Trump scrapped Obama-era rules, intended to reduce the risks posed by flooding, that established new construction standards for roads, housing and other infrastructure projects that receive federal dollars.

Trump derided these restrictions, which were written in response to growing concerns over the impact of climate change, and other federal rules as useless red tape holding back the economy.

“This overregulated permitting process is a massive, self-­inflicted wound on our country — it’s disgraceful — denying our people much-needed investments in their community,” he said in the lobby of Trump Tower in New York during an event to tout his infrastructure policies.

But now, in the wake of the massive flooding and destruction caused by Hurricane Harvey along the Gulf Coast, the Trump administration is considering whether to issue similar requirements to build higher in flood-prone areas as the government prepares to spend billions of dollars in response to the storm.

This potential policy shift underscores the extent to which the reality of this week’s storm has collided with Trump officials’ push to upend President Barack Obama’s policies and represents a striking acknowledgment by an administration skeptical of climate change that the government must factor changing weather into some of its major infrastructure policies. ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-harvey-the-trump-administration-reconsiders-flood-rules-it-just-rolled-back/2017/09/01/c3a051ea-8e56-11e7-8df5-c2e5cf46c1e2_story.html
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logicmanPatrick

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #391 on: September 02, 2017, 02:54:18 AM »
Short term economic solutions usually lead to 'save a dime, spend a dollar' situations.  Some take time, perhaps decades.  Others take hours, as in the case of the ship Grandcamp.  The skipper, not wanting his precious cargo to be damaged by water ordered the hoses off and the hatches battened down to smother the fire.  8:25 am - fire siren sounded.  9:12 am ship detonated.

The first explosion led indirectly to a second in another ship.  1:10 am next day - High Flyer detonated, destroying the nearby ship Wilson B. Keene.

Everyone who even hints at de-regulation as a means of "saving money" or other such foolishness should be forced to read a detailed account of the 1947 Texas City Disaster and then watch the video showing gruesome images of identification procedures.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #392 on: September 02, 2017, 03:26:48 AM »
 Meanwhile, in New York City... let's hope this is only a theoretical exercise, and not the real thing next weekend.

New York City Reviews Plans on Flooding After Houston Disaster
City staff ‘looking at what a Harvey-type event would mean’
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-09-01/new-york-city-reviews-plans-on-flooding-after-houston-disaster
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #393 on: September 02, 2017, 04:05:22 AM »
Flooding of Bear Creek Village on the western edge of Addicks Reservoir #houwx #hounews
https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/902578860222554113
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #394 on: September 02, 2017, 08:58:02 AM »
This evening's GFS run destroyed Philadelphia. No need to post it, since it won't happen.  Here's the Euro taking a massive cat 4 into South Carolina on 9/11. 


Gray-Wolf

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #395 on: September 02, 2017, 01:37:00 PM »
Cat 6 ( Bob Henson over at WU) are in meltdown after the 06 GFS smashes an apocalyptic Cat 4 into NYC/New Jersey........ but as folk say it'll be mid week before we really have a chance of seeing where she's bound?

We have been seeing the Pacific Basin throw up some massive storms over recent years as well as showing us fast developing storms. It appears the upper atmosphere woes of the Atlantic Basin ( since 05') are now over? I'm sure the switch in Pacific Naturals, back in 2014, began this move back to a Basin able to grow tall storms not plagued by Saharan Dust and Shear?

If what the Pacific basin has been showing us holds true then fast forming ,mighty Hurricanes may well be the flavour of the season?

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A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #396 on: September 02, 2017, 02:04:22 PM »
Quote
Flooding on the western edge of Addicks Reservoir
Meanwhile, mopping up some misinformation up-forum using new information from the Harris County flood control district twitter site https://twitter.com/hcfcd

Addicks Reservoir is currently releasing 7000 cfs and Barker 6300 cfs which will continue for another couple of weeks before cutting back to 4000 (if no further rain). Elsewhere newspapers had given these as 4000 + 4000 as conduit spill design maximums. Evidently not.

The emergency spillways (armored sections of berm ends) are tapered downwards. This means the north end of the north Addicks spillway overflows first; if the reservoir rises further, overflow moves up higher on the taper. The other spillway, being at higher elevation all along its taper, never comes into play. (The Addicks watershed had about 35" of rain, not 60".) They expect a slow end to Addicks north end spilling by Saturday Sept. 2nd.

The effect of draining the reservoirs is to keep Buffalo Bayou too high. Many houses that are flooded now will stay flooded for another two weeks. If they had not aggressively drained the reservoirs, up-reservoir flooding would have been prolonged.
   
As of 8/31 they've estimated an 136,000 flooded structures, roughly about 10 percent of registered HCAD structures. (Harris County Appraisal District lists all homes for property tax purposes). The previous flooding record here was 70,000 homes.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #397 on: September 02, 2017, 04:52:14 PM »
NWS Houston:  In the wake of #Harvey, here is some insight into when flood waters will recede: #houwx #glswx #bcswx #txwx #TexasStrong
https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/903677676791226369
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #398 on: September 02, 2017, 05:16:28 PM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #399 on: September 02, 2017, 06:27:42 PM »
Lengthy radar loop at the link.

>100 hours, >1000 images: #Radar of #Harvey's extreme catastrophic rainfall
https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/903815784086085632
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