Greenland 2017 melt season

[Sigmetnow]

Greenland, the land of ice and snow, is burning

There’s been nothing even close to this since reliable satellite-based fire detection records began in Greenland in 2000. Very small wildfires can evade satellite detection, and old-timer scientists who have worked in Greenland for decades say that micro-fires there aren’t necessarily uncommon.

This week’s fire, however, is on another level. ...

https://grist.org/article/greenland-the-land-of-ice-and-snow-is-burning/

[gerontocrat]

Greenland, the land of ice and snow, is burning

There’s been nothing even close to this since reliable satellite-based fire detection records began in Greenland in 2000. Very small wildfires can evade satellite detection, and old-timer scientists who have worked in Greenland for decades say that micro-fires there aren’t necessarily uncommon.

This week’s fire, however, is on another level. ...

https://grist.org/article/greenland-the-land-of-ice-and-snow-is-burning/

Also robertscribbler.com - his latest is on this plus Siberia wildfires and loads of links. Could not resist lifting the graph below from his article.

Did anyone see this one coming? I certainly didn't.

[numerobis]

Having seen peat fires in the Lincolnshire Fens burn for 3 years until they burn 14 ft down to the water table (lower than sea level due to drainage) I would be worried. The saving factor in Greenland may be a higher water content in the peat.

How deep is the peat in that part of Greenland anyway? Around Iqaluit I'm seeing it be maybe a foot or two at the deepest, and generally just inches.

It's devastating for the local wildlife. Tundra grows very slowly.

[nukefix]

It's devastating for the local wildlife. Tundra grows very slowly.

I would think it's a normal part of nature there.

[gerontocrat]

How deep is the peat in that part of Greenland anyway? Around Iqaluit I'm seeing it be maybe a foot or two at the deepest, and generally just inches.

This is a quote from a 2010 report by the Danish Geological Survey. (http://www.posiva.fi/files/1244/WR_2010-07web.pdf)

"Soils are generally thin, and especially in the gneiss regions rather poor in plant nutrients. Permafrost occurs throughout the ice free areas of Greenland. It is continuous in the north, discontinuous along parts of the central east and west coast and occurs as isolated patches in the south. Kangerlussuaq is in the southernmost part of the continuous permafrost zone. "

[Sebastian Jones]

The tundra burning in Greenland has not evolved with fire. The boreal forest- which may start to appear in Greenland this century- does have fire as part of its natural cycle. The hunters who were unable to get out on the land due to smoke, will also have to contend with caribou that no longer have forage, for decades, where the fires burned.

[magnamentis]

It's devastating for the local wildlife. Tundra grows very slowly.

I would think it's a normal part of nature there.

growth is fastest after wildfires, where i live almost half of the area has been on fire once during the past 20 years and growth, including speed and hight of brushes has doubled after each fire. further i think that the soil is building a bit faster since the tundra does not build that much of humus while ashes and burned residues do. even though in places it's blown away, it will accumulate in places and build fruitful earth, behaviour would be simiilar to sand and snow, filling throughs and building little thicker spots where different plants can grow once the climate allows.

[gerontocrat]

Greenland Melt is turning into Surface Mass Budget Gain. Loads of precipitation in the North-West. Snow ?
GOTO http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

[Adam Ash]

OK, so snow is insulation, preventing lower winter temperatures reaching top surfaces which have been exposed to melt recently.  Although there may be a mass gain in this fall, it may not translate into hard ice, but rather it may quickly become surface water in the spring, and run off, adding to last years in-depth reservoirs/lenses of free water within the warming ice column. 

The on-going increases to the ice column's internal temperature which I assume must be occurring from both surface insolation and water flows, and from deep water flows (moulins and basement water along the ice rock interface) would seem (to me) to be leading to a scenario where comparatively large masses of the ice sheet could loose mechanical coherence under minor perturbations such as earthquakes.

[Martin Gisser]

It's devastating for the local wildlife. Tundra grows very slowly.

I would think it's a normal part of nature there.

growth is fastest after wildfires, where i live almost half of the area has been on fire once during the past 20 years and growth, including speed and hight of brushes has doubled after each fire. further i think that the soil is building a bit faster since the tundra does not build that much of humus while ashes and burned residues do. even though in places it's blown away, it will accumulate in places and build fruitful earth, behaviour would be simiilar to sand and snow, filling throughs and building little thicker spots where different plants can grow once the climate allows.

Plus, some char coal is produced, which does not rot and improves soil structure. Fires can have a carbon sequestrating and soil building effect. E.g. some of the deep black chernozem soils seem to consist mostly of inorganic carbon from grass fires.

[Coffee Drinker]

Fryer glacier frost period started a few days ago. Also visible on the webcam is all the snow that seems to have survived the summer and new snow on the surrounding hills.

The webcam is at 870m above sea level.

Quite a contrast to last year:

18/8/2017
https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/

25/8/2016
https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/2016/08/25/1200

[Coffee Drinker]

It's devastating for the local wildlife. Tundra grows very slowly.

I would think it's a normal part of nature there.

Someone must have caused the fire. Maybe some locals camping and not being careful enough. Wouldn't call that natural.

[nicibiene]

As cc-reanalizer predicts Greenland seems to get a lot of rain and temperatures above zero: 

[gerontocrat]

Images from
http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

The surface mass balance map (todaysmb) below shows a lot of mass gain in the southern half of Greenland, especially the SW corner. cci-reanalyzer says this was rain on the coast and snow in the interior. cci-reanalyzer also says rain in the south for the next few days. This I presume will show as additional mass in the surface mass balance.

One then starts to wonder about the processes about what happens to rainfall - soaks into the snow that remains,  forms streams and escapes to the oceans or plunges down to bedrock (or all three) ? If Greenland is going to get warmer and wetter (snowier and rainier) presumably this will significantly change the future evolution of the ice sheet ?

[Daniel B.]

Increased snowfall in Greenland is not totally unexpected.  Decreased sea ice may enhance evaporation, resulting in increased snowfall in the interior.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068513/abstract

[Thomas Barlow]

Not sure if this has been discussed, or which thread it should go on. Just delete it if it is repetitive. I'm also not sure how significant "9 billion gallons of water" is?
Thanks
"Lake Catalina Is On The Verge Of Releasing Up To 9 Billion Gallons Of Water"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2017/08/23/lake-catalina-verge-releasing-9-billion-gallons-water/#7fe4cf631598

[gerontocrat]

Not sure if this has been discussed, or which thread it should go on. Just delete it if it is repetitive. I'm also not sure how significant "9 billion gallons of water" is?
Thanks
"Lake Catalina Is On The Verge Of Releasing Up To 9 Billion Gallons Of Water"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2017/08/23/lake-catalina-verge-releasing-9-billion-gallons-water/#7fe4cf631598

Assuming USA gallons
9 billion = 36 billion litres
= 36 milllion cubic metres
= 0.036 cubic kilometers
Compared with Greenland / Arctic freeze and melt 'tis but nothing.
To be in the way of it would not be nothing.

[Thomas Barlow]

Assuming USA gallons
9 billion = 36 billion litres
= 36 milllion cubic metres
= 0.036 cubic kilometers
Compared with Greenland / Arctic freeze and melt 'tis but nothing.
To be in the way of it would not be nothing.

👍

[SCYetti]

I would like the thoughts of others on these two hot spots in Greenland. The northern spot first appeared on June 5 then reappeared August 11, 23, 24th. The southern spot appeared August 7, 13, 16, 24th. Both spots seem to be in midstream not on land.

[Brigantine]

Assuming USA gallons
9 billion = 36 billion litres
= 36 milllion cubic metres
= 0.036 cubic kilometers
Compared with Greenland / Arctic freeze and melt 'tis but nothing.
To be in the way of it would not be nothing.

Except "6.7 - 9 Billion" is not correct. The figure is 2.6 - 3.4 cubic km. (According to this)

The lake is about 10km x 2km and the height varies by up to 150m.

So flowing at one Sverdrup it would last 43 - 57 minutes. Or more likely, flowing like the Niagara Falls (2800m^3/s) it would last 11 - 14 days.

[gerontocrat]

Assuming USA gallons
9 billion = 36 billion litres
= 36 milllion cubic metres
= 0.036 cubic kilometers
Compared with Greenland / Arctic freeze and melt 'tis but nothing.
To be in the way of it would not be nothing.

Except "6.7 - 9 Billion" is not correct. The figure is 2.6 - 3.4 cubic km. (According to this)

The lake is about 10km x 2km and the height varies by up to 150m.

So flowing at one Sverdrup it would last 43 - 57 minutes. Or more likely, flowing like the Niagara Falls (2800m^3/s) it would last 11 - 14 days.

Which just goes to show that the nearer to the original source one gets, the better the data.
Where did that 9 billion gallons come from? Wrong by a factor of 100.
Yet another science writer with little grasp of arithmetic?

[Brigantine]

Where did that 9 billion gallons come from? Wrong by a factor of 100.

The source I linked also referred to the volume as "3.400 billion liter" - so either using that '.' in the European way (1000's separator as opposed to a decimal), or using "billion" as "million million" like in German, but not both. I could understand if that caused confusion...

But "9 billion gallons" is not consistent with *ANY* of the 3 possible interpretations of "3.400 billion liter", so they have no excuse. The cynics win this round.

[gerontocrat]

Where did that 9 billion gallons come from? Wrong by a factor of 100.

The source I linked also referred to the volume as "3.400 billion liter" - so either using that '.' in the European way (1000's separator as opposed to a decimal), or using "billion" as "million million" like in German, but not both. I could understand if that caused confusion...

But "9 billion gallons" is not consistent with *ANY* of the 3 possible interpretations of "3.400 billion liter", so they have no excuse. The cynics win this round.

Definitely the Danes (and Scandinavians generally) using "." instead of ",". I did contracts in Africa for Swedes and Danes and had to educate them in the "proper" use of separators. They sometimes had a sense of humour failure about it.

1 USD Gallon = 3.79 litres, so the "9" was right but the decimal point was wrong. 900 billion gallons is the correct answer. Arithmetic is a forgotten skill.

H.G. Wells said numeracy was a necessary skill for the modern age.

[gerontocrat]

The Danes Greenland year finishes on Aug 31st. So data at 29th August will do.
DATA (http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/)
Increase in surface mass balance Sep 1 2016 to 31st August 2017 nearly 550 gigatonnes; as compared to 
-average of just over 350 gt,
- 2011-12 of just under 50 gt.
- melting was mostly pretty average.
DMI say net mass loss p.a. is circa 200 gt due to peripheral melting and glacial loss.

QUESTIONS:-
- What will the net mass loss be in 2017? Depends on snowfall now to December ? (see next question) Will have to wait for NASA's GRACE system to tell us next year?
- Will the massive snowfall from October '16 to Apr '17 be repeated?
- If so, does this represent part of a general Arctic climate change ? (at least for a few years until AGW moves the climate goalposts again ? )

As usual, more questions than answers.

ps:- melting has ticked up a bit. cci-reanalyzer suggests could continue for a few days, with precipitation in West Greenland - rain on the coast and snow in the interior.

[nukefix]

DMI say net mass loss p.a. is circa 200 gt due to peripheral melting and glacial loss.

That's in a normal year I reckon.

QUESTIONS:-
- What will the net mass loss be in 2017? Depends on snowfall now to December ? (see next question) Will have to wait for NASA's GRACE system to tell us next year?

I wonder if zero net mass-loss or even net gain is possible this year. BTW GRACE is about to die and the data is getting more and more patchy. We must hope that the GRACE Follow-On launches and works without a glitch (godspeed!).

[ghoti]

MCLEAN, Va., Jan. 31, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE)  Iridium Communications Inc. (NASDAQ:IRDM) announced today that it has contracted with SpaceX for an eighth Falcon 9 launch. Along for the ride are the twin-satellites of the NASA/GFZ Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission, which will be deployed into a separate low-Earth orbit, marking the first rideshare deal for Iridium.

Current plan is to launch  March 21, 2018. Hopefully the one in orbit now lasts until then.

[Daniel B.]

DMI say net mass loss p.a. is circa 200 gt due to peripheral melting and glacial loss.

That's in a normal year I reckon.

QUESTIONS:-
- What will the net mass loss be in 2017? Depends on snowfall now to December ? (see next question) Will have to wait for NASA's GRACE system to tell us next year?

I wonder if zero net mass-loss or even net gain is possible this year. BTW GRACE is about to die and the data is getting more and more patchy. We must hope that the GRACE Follow-On launches and works without a glitch (godspeed!).

Considering that the average net loss has been ~200 Gt/yr, and this year has just experienced an increased mass gain of ~200 Gt from heavy snows, I would say that it is definitely possible.

[gerontocrat]

MCLEAN, Va., Jan. 31, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE)  Iridium Communications Inc. (NASDAQ:IRDM) announced today that it has contracted with SpaceX for an eighth Falcon 9 launch. Along for the ride are the twin-satellites of the NASA/GFZ Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission, which will be deployed into a separate low-Earth orbit, marking the first rideshare deal for Iridium.

Current plan is to launch  March 21, 2018. Hopefully the one in orbit now lasts until then.

Let us hope fools such as Lamar Smith and the assembled idiots in the Trump administration don't stick their oar in.

[gerontocrat]

MCLEAN, Va., Jan. 31, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE)  Iridium Communications Inc. (NASDAQ:IRDM) announced today that it has contracted with SpaceX for an eighth Falcon 9 launch. Along for the ride are the twin-satellites of the NASA/GFZ Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission, which will be deployed into a separate low-Earth orbit, marking the first rideshare deal for Iridium.

Current plan is to launch  March 21, 2018. Hopefully the one in orbit now lasts until then.

Let us hope fools such as Lamar Smith and the assembled idiots in the Trump administration don't stick their oar in.

ps:- Trump wants to hack 1 billion USD off NASA's budget.

pps: Late season melt continues:-

[gerontocrat]

Cause and Effect - a demonstration

It is not often one sees such a direct cause and effect as follows-

-The jet stream has a big fat Rossby wave shovelling relatively warm wet air in the direction of Greenland.
-Temperature anomaly over Greenland spikes up,
And the consequence is -
-   Melt shoots up to 11% from average of about 2.5 percent,
-   Precipitation of rain and snow spikes up.

Will 2017-2018 show the same pattern as 2016-2017 of frequent larger than normal precipitation events?
Might this be development of a an AGW driven higher-energy weather pattern that will alo include increased melting and calving?

The jet stream and temperature anomaly look like persisting for a few days - any chance of picking up Jose as it goes north and becomes ex-tropical?

[gerontocrat]

High activity continues:-

-The jet stream's big fat Rossby wave continues to shovel relatively warm wet air in the direction of Greenland. It is shifting eastward, but looks like it will feed warmish air into the high Arctic for a few days yet.
-Temperature anomaly over Greenland still high, especially in East from today
And yesterday (15th September) -
-   Melt shoots up from 11% to 19% from average of about 2.5 percent for this time of year,
-   Precipitation of rain and snow spikes up even more.

The jet stream looks like persisting for a few days - a greater chance of picking up Jose as it goes north and becomes ex-tropical?

[Daniel B.]

High activity continues:-

-The jet stream's big fat Rossby wave continues to shovel relatively warm wet air in the direction of Greenland. It is shifting eastward, but looks like it will feed warmish air into the high Arctic for a few days yet.
-Temperature anomaly over Greenland still high, especially in East from today
And yesterday (15th September) -
-   Melt shoots up from 11% to 19% from average of about 2.5 percent for this time of year,
-   Precipitation of rain and snow spikes up even more.

The jet stream looks like persisting for a few days - a greater chance of picking up Jose as it goes north and becomes ex-tropical?

That poses the question of whether the mass gain snowfall exceeded the mass loss from the melt.

[gerontocrat]

PART 1:-

That poses the question of whether the mass gain snowfall exceeded the mass loss from the melt.

The DMI surface mass balance data does give the net mass gain / loss from precipitation and melt. Although, as this forum shows, individual glaciers are closely studied, I have not found anywhere a source of data on a continuous basis of overall mass loss from calving of glaciers and ice sheets. Instead we have NASA's GRACE that gives us an overall mass gain or loss of the Greenland ice sheet. (https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/land-ice/). The website gives monthly data from 2002 to JAN 2017, i.e. the current net mass loss / gain is not available. Bummer.

PART 2:-

Meanwhile, Greenland has been very quiet for the last few days, BUT it looks like weather is a-coming in - the jet stream still heading North from the mid-Atlantic up 'twixt Greenland and Scandinavia, and a big low expected to dump significant precipitation on the SE quarter of Greenland over the next few days, and perhaps an increase in melting.

This thread "Greenland 2017 melt season" has sort of morphed into a discussion on melting, precipitation and overall mass balance. I, for one, will be looking at precipitation levels to see if there will be a second wetter, snowier Greenland winter and spring.

[gerontocrat]

Melting may have stopped - though a last spike just might be on the way - but a second spike in precipitation started two days ago and looks like continuing for a day or three. This makes September not a quiet month compared with last year and average years.

It is just possible that sometime next week the remnants of Lee and Maria will arrive. If Greenland doesn't get it, then the UK is the most likely destination.

[gerontocrat]

And precipitation continues...

[Daniel B.]

And precipitation continues...

Yes, the trend is already two weeks ahead of last year's high surface mass balance gain.

[Coffee Drinker]

At Freyer glacier (1000m above sea level) in northeast Greenland it is currently raining/wet snow at +1.8C. Will probably turn to snow again at night but anyway.

https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/

[gerontocrat]

Looks like Greenland will be quiet for a few days, but who knows?

[Shared Humanity]

Higher rates of precipitation over Greenland may become the new normal as the earth warms, atmospheric moisture load increases and weather patterns shift. What effect this might have on long term mass balance is beyond my pay grade but it would suggest gains are in the future.

[gerontocrat]

Precipitation very low and seems will be so for some time.
But temp anomaly high now and also for some time.
A quiet period ?

[gerontocrat]

The melt season is over. But where else to put the data on what is happening in general to the ice sheet.

Data from http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/ shows that after an active September (much greater than in 2016) precipitation in October so far has been average (much less than 2016). Over the next few days no major precipitation seems likely. (The NHC reckon the remains of Ophelia will dissipate over Scandinavia.)

The absence of above average mass gain is of equal significance as its presence.

[Daniel B.]

Last year witnessed unusually high accumulation in October and November, resulting in the extremely high mass gain.  This year, we have had an unusually high September, but October has been rather average.  The result is a similar mass gain as last year, for this date.  This season appears to be tracking on the high side of average, but below that year's .

[gerontocrat]

After a quiet week or two, precipitation is high. Not only that, there is a little bit of melt in the far south. Weather-forecast.com and cci-reanalyzer suggest that at least for the remainder of October, precipitation (mainly in the West) will be high and a bit of melt in the far South is possible.

[Shared Humanity]

After a quiet week or two, precipitation is high. Not only that, there is a little bit of melt in the far south. Weather-forecast.com and cci-reanalyzer suggest that at least for the remainder of October, precipitation (mainly in the West) will be high and a bit of melt in the far South is possible.

A warmer, wetter Greenland should be expected with climate change IMHO.

[Daniel B.]

After a quiet week or two, precipitation is high. Not only that, there is a little bit of melt in the far south. Weather-forecast.com and cci-reanalyzer suggest that at least for the remainder of October, precipitation (mainly in the West) will be high and a bit of melt in the far South is possible.

A warmer, wetter Greenland should be expected with climate change IMHO.

But does that mean net ice mass gain or loss?

[gerontocrat]

Precipitation is high for another day. The little bit of melt in the far south continues. Weather-forecast.com and cci-reanalyzer suggest that at least for the remainder of October, precipitation (mainly in the West) will be high and a bit of further melt in the far South is possible.

ICE SHEET MASS Gain or Loss?
Data was from NASA's  GRACE mission. Last data was from January 2017. BUT - Hot from the Press!!

http://spacenews.com/grace-mission-comes-to-an-end/

New improved satellites ("GRACE Follow-on") due to be launched in March 2018. All depends on the success(?) or otherwise of Trump's assaults on science. But it is a joint effort between NASA and the Germans so perhaps Trump's minions will not be able to screw it up.

[Daniel B.]

Precipitation is high for another day. The little bit of melt in the far south continues. Weather-forecast.com and cci-reanalyzer suggest that at least for the remainder of October, precipitation (mainly in the West) will be high and a bit of further melt in the far South is possible.

ICE SHEET MASS Gain or Loss?
Data was from NASA's  GRACE mission. Last data was from January 2017. BUT - Hot from the Press!!

http://spacenews.com/grace-mission-comes-to-an-end/

New improved satellites ("GRACE Follow-on") due to be launched in March 2018. All depends on the success(?) or otherwise of Trump's assaults on science. But it is a joint effort between NASA and the Germans so perhaps Trump's minions will not be able to screw it up.

That is certainly welcome news.  I am anxious to see their data.

[Shared Humanity]

After a quiet week or two, precipitation is high. Not only that, there is a little bit of melt in the far south. Weather-forecast.com and cci-reanalyzer suggest that at least for the remainder of October, precipitation (mainly in the West) will be high and a bit of melt in the far South is possible.

A warmer, wetter Greenland should be expected with climate change IMHO.

But does that mean net ice mass gain or loss?

Haven't a clue.

[gerontocrat]

October precipitation after a slow first half had above average precipitation. Surface mass gain at 31 October is just below 2016 but approaching 100 gt above (nearly double) the average.

[Andre Koelewijn]

A warmer, wetter Greenland should be expected with climate change IMHO.

But does that mean net ice mass gain or loss?

Haven't a clue.

As we are seeing now, 'wetter' takes advantage over 'warmer', leading to an accumulation of mass in the ice sheet (probably as fluid water at the freezing point, inside pores and other open spaces inside the ice, otherwise as ice/snow).
At some point, the melting caused by 'warmer' will overtake, melting the extra accumulated mass away.