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What  is your prediction for the JAXA daily minimum extent for 2018?

> 5.0 M km^2
2 (1.7%)
4.75 - 5. 25 M km^2
2 (1.7%)
4.50 - 5.0 M km^2
5 (4.1%)
4.25 - 4.75 M km^2
6 (5%)
4.0 - 4.5 M km^2
22 (18.2%)
3.75 - 4.25 M km^2
33 (27.3%)
3.5 - 4.0 M km^2
9 (7.4%)
3.25 - 3.75 M km^2
10 (8.3%)
3.0 - 3.5 M km^2
5 (4.1%)
2.75 - 3.25 M km^2
7 (5.8%)
New Record
20 (16.5%)

Total Members Voted: 117

Voting closed: June 16, 2018, 01:52:49 AM

Author Topic: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll  (Read 9112 times)

Alexander555

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #50 on: June 10, 2018, 08:39:18 PM »
Do you have a reason why the cooler conditions will prevail over the canadian side ?

Ned W

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #51 on: June 11, 2018, 01:09:30 PM »
Latest prediction:  4.01 (95% prediction interval 3.02 to 5.00).  We are plunging into the mysterious "June dip" in the standard error timeseries, so the 95% interval temporarily becomes somewhat narrower.  Here are the percentages for each bin:

New record5%
Under 2.50%
2.5 to 32%
2.75 to 3.256%
3 to 3.513%
3.25 to 3.7524%
3.5 to 434%
3.75 to 4.2539%
4 to 4.535%
4.25 to 4.7525%
4.5 to 514%
4.75 to 5.256%
5 to 5.52%
Over 5.251%


Ned W

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #52 on: June 11, 2018, 01:30:09 PM »
People who keep posting that it will be a "normal (2010-2017)" year are blowing my mind. I really don't get it how it will get warmer  for years on end in the ocean and the atmosphere but the ice is supposed to just chill...

I can't speak for anyone else, but I personally am somewhat influenced by Chris Reynolds's "Slow Transition" hypothesis ... see this thread from 2014:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,933.0.html

and this blog post:

http://dosbat.blogspot.com/2014/07/the-slow-transition.html

It's been almost four years since Chris wrote that post and I think it's even more convincing today. 

Daniel B.

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #53 on: June 11, 2018, 02:15:08 PM »
Do you have a reason why the cooler conditions will prevail over the canadian side ?

If you draw a line from NW to SE Canada, roughly the Alaskan to Maine border, everything north and east of that line has been cooler this spring with extended snow cover.  In all likelihood, the coastal waters and ice pack are cooler also.  Unless summer brings about a bigger change than normal, these cooler conditions are likely to prevail.

slow wing

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #54 on: June 11, 2018, 02:26:54 PM »
Voted 3.50-4.00 bin & so a second-lowest finish, behind only 2012.

The ice albedo now is in the middle compared to the years 2011-2017, as I just posted, with a gif, in the melt season thread.

What brings it down for me is that the Atlantic side is weak. The ice has retreated from in front of Svalbard and there seems to be a lot of heat there, perhaps related to the 'Atlanticization' of that region that people here discuss (maybe not using that exact word lol). It will likely be a 'kill zone' for any ice drifting in that direction.

The Bering-Chukchi region has also melted out fast. The Beaufort is better than in 2016 or 2017 for this date but there are still a lot of gaps in the ice there. The albedo on the Russian side has just recently reduced and there is already a big gap in the Laptev ice.

So we should be left with the usual ice sanctuary on the Canadian side, with ice pushed up against the CAA, and little or no ice remaining elsewhere.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2018, 02:36:33 PM by slow wing »

Ken Feldman

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #55 on: June 11, 2018, 06:13:32 PM »
slow wing, thanks for posting the albedo comparisons.

I changed my vote from the 3.75 - 4.25 bin to the 4.25 - 4.75.  I was freaked by the early Bering melt out, but it doesn't appear to be making much of a dent in the Pacific side yet.  The abledo comparison that slow wing posted indicates that melt ponding isn't as extreme as it was in 2012.  And the cyclone last week brought in some clouds and fresh snow just as the insolation is reaching it's peak, giving the ice some protection from top melt.

PIOMASS and DMI thickness and volume are in pretty good agreement.  It's looking more like 2015 or 2017 then one of the extreme years.

EgalSust

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #56 on: June 11, 2018, 06:26:32 PM »
4-4.5 here, expecting more of the same compared to latest years. Could have voted lower if melt-ponding was spectacular, but that seems not to be the case...

Hyperion

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #57 on: June 12, 2018, 03:14:08 AM »
Voted 3.50-4.00 bin & so a second-lowest finish, behind only 2012.

The ice albedo now is in the middle compared to the years 2011-2017, as I just posted, with a gif, in the melt season thread.

What brings it down for me is that the Atlantic side is weak. The ice has retreated from in front of Svalbard and there seems to be a lot of heat there, perhaps related to the 'Atlanticization' of that region that people here discuss (maybe not using that exact word lol). It will likely be a 'kill zone' for any ice drifting in that direction.

The Bering-Chukchi region has also melted out fast. The Beaufort is better than in 2016 or 2017 for this date but there are still a lot of gaps in the ice there. The albedo on the Russian side has just recently reduced and there is already a big gap in the Laptev ice.

So we should be left with the usual ice sanctuary on the Canadian side, with ice pushed up against the CAA, and little or no ice remaining elsewhere.
Are you kidding? Have you taken a look at the in coming weather systems. The CAA is about to get steamed out, the garlic press reverse, all the pileup against the outer islands lift off and get shoved out fram and nares.  And melt pounding in the CAA and Beaufort is in the process of doing what we've just seen happen on the Russian front.
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Brigantine

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #58 on: June 12, 2018, 03:38:31 AM »
Are you kidding? Have you taken a look at the in coming weather systems.
There are *always* incoming weather systems that people are talking about... Which sometimes eventuate and sometimes don't.

What baseline from previous years should we be comparing to in terms of incoming weather systems? In 2013, 2014, 2017, do we assume that the forecast at this stage in the season read "Weather for the next 10 days: nothing happens"?

Daniel B.

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #59 on: June 12, 2018, 03:53:40 AM »
Voted 3.50-4.00 bin & so a second-lowest finish, behind only 2012.

The ice albedo now is in the middle compared to the years 2011-2017, as I just posted, with a gif, in the melt season thread.

What brings it down for me is that the Atlantic side is weak. The ice has retreated from in front of Svalbard and there seems to be a lot of heat there, perhaps related to the 'Atlanticization' of that region that people here discuss (maybe not using that exact word lol). It will likely be a 'kill zone' for any ice drifting in that direction.

The Bering-Chukchi region has also melted out fast. The Beaufort is better than in 2016 or 2017 for this date but there are still a lot of gaps in the ice there. The albedo on the Russian side has just recently reduced and there is already a big gap in the Laptev ice.

So we should be left with the usual ice sanctuary on the Canadian side, with ice pushed up against the CAA, and little or no ice remaining elsewhere.
Are you kidding? Have you taken a look at the in coming weather systems. The CAA is about to get steamed out, the garlic press reverse, all the pileup against the outer islands lift off and get shoved out fram and nares.  And melt pounding in the CAA and Beaufort is in the process of doing what we've just seen happen on the Russian front.

I feel that is too low also, so I went with a higher bin.

slow wing

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #60 on: June 14, 2018, 05:40:48 AM »
As I read Hyperion's post, s/he thinks I've gone too high with my prediction, not too low.

Krakatoa

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #61 on: June 14, 2018, 11:25:21 AM »
I don't get why so many go for the 'new record' option.

Ned W

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #62 on: June 14, 2018, 01:52:34 PM »
The "new record" threshold is now outside the predict-o-matic's 95% prediction interval.  I'm seeing a 1% chance of a new record.  The best estimate has crept up to 4.15 million km3. 

This year there is a very bimodal distribution of votes.  There is one reasonably gaussian-shaped peak around the actual likely outcome (though the 4.25 to 4.75 bin is underrepresented) and then a second peak at "new record".   

Probabilities for each bin:

New record1%
Under 2.50%
2.5 to 30%
2.75 to 3.252%
3 to 3.57%
3.25 to 3.7516%
3.5 to 429%
3.75 to 4.2540%
4 to 4.541%
4.25 to 4.7532%
4.5 to 519%
4.75 to 5.258%
5 to 5.53%
Over 5.251%

I am waffling on whether to leave my vote where it is (3.75-4.25) or shift it upwards. 

Dharma Rupa

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #63 on: June 14, 2018, 02:03:58 PM »
I don't get why so many go for the 'new record' option.

Because while the odds are low in any given year they are also one of the highest odds over time.  The Arctic is generally losing ice.

Also, some of us feel that whenever the melt-out comes it will come with little warning.  Thus by voting "new record" one can feel that eventually they will be right.

Daniel B.

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #64 on: June 14, 2018, 02:34:12 PM »
I don't get why so many go for the 'new record' option.

I think it a more prevailing pessimistic attitude experienced by many posters.  It is evident in other threads, like near-term human extinction, that the worst is likely to happen, and soon.  This appears to be more of a subjective view that eventually the ice must set a new record.  That is a rather simplistic view.  The other votes tend to be centered around the most likely results based on sea ice data. 

Neven

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #65 on: June 14, 2018, 02:42:48 PM »
I think some also hope there's a new record so that the world springs into action to really tackle the dangers of climate change. I share that hope, but I enough about the Arctic to know when a new record is possible, and when not. Right now, I think it's still open, but it will take some exceptional conditions (records always do).
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #66 on: June 14, 2018, 02:49:42 PM »
I think some also hope there's a new record so that the world springs into action to really tackle the dangers of climate change. I share that hope, but I [know] enough about the Arctic to know when a new record is possible, and when not. Right now, I think it's still open, but it will take some exceptional conditions (records always do).

Right now there seems to be enough of a disconnect between the Weather and the Extent data that I don't see how one can make a real prediction (in June).

miki

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #67 on: June 14, 2018, 05:02:25 PM »
I think some also hope there's a new record so that the world springs into action to really tackle the dangers of climate change. I share that hope, but I enough about the Arctic to know when a new record is possible, and when not. Right now, I think it's still open, but it will take some exceptional conditions (records always do).

Since 2012 I've grown rather optimistic for the ice - it may be that, in spite of the downward trend, still weather, negative feedbacks and other conditions make it last a little longer - and I've grown rather pessimistic about the reaction of people and politics. A new record would be just a new record for a lot of people. Back to their wishful thinking sleep two minutes after.

Neven

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #68 on: June 14, 2018, 07:19:19 PM »
Two whole minutes?  ;D
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Feeltheburn

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #69 on: June 15, 2018, 07:22:54 AM »
If the DMI modeled ice thickness has any validity, either as an estimate of actual ice thickness or as a predictor of the propensity for the ice to melt, I would guess this year will end up higher than last year and probably higher than the last few years. My vote is 4,5 to 5,0 km2.
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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #70 on: June 15, 2018, 08:47:00 AM »
Two whole minutes?  ;D

New ice or climate records seem to be gone in a flash in the news cycle these days, in the branch of the media that even reports them. So I share the general scepticism I'm sensing about how much impact yet another would have.

gerontocrat

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #71 on: June 15, 2018, 05:05:38 PM »
I quote: -Voting closes: June 16, 2018, 01:52:49 AM.
What time zone ? - Moscow (World Cup Time), Hawaii (Volcano Time), GMT, BST, etc.

When considering my vote I start with the outcome of 4.24 million km2 if remaining melt was the last 10 year average.
Then I looked at all the regional seas (NSIDC area data) for clues. (posted on 2018 Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area Data an hour ago) No good.

Then I thought +ve and -ve feedbacks.
+veGlobal Ocean heat content strongly up,
SST anomalies more +ve than not in the Arctic.
May to date warmer than 2017 ?
GFS predicting +ve temp anomalies for the next 10 days.

-ve
PIOMAS - the Elephant in the room? From Neven's June 2018 update. - http://neven1.typepad.com/
Quote
2018 is 5th lowest right now, and the difference with last year has grown to a massive 1915 km3, which is 299 km3 more than last month.
i.e. a lot of additional volume to melt to produce a low result.

I tried Mystic Meg and the Farmers' Almanac - they gave me no idea.

Logic says go for 4.0 to 4.5.
Gut says one bin lower. So 3.75 to 4.25 for me.
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DavidR

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #72 on: June 16, 2018, 03:36:48 AM »
I quote: -Voting closes: June 16, 2018, 01:52:49 AM.
What time zone ? - Moscow (World Cup Time), Hawaii (Volcano Time), GMT, BST, etc.

Times on the forum are given in your time zone. I  see the closing time as 09:52. Looks like you  just  got your vote in as the voting is now closed.

Thefinal  predictions increased slightly  from those on 6 June as you  would expect with the recent flattening of the rate of decline

June   6th figures   92 votes Average:  3.785 M km^2
June 16th figures 121 votes Average:  3.824 M km^2
« Last Edit: June 16, 2018, 03:42:42 AM by DavidR »
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DavidR

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #73 on: June 16, 2018, 03:53:04 AM »
From Neven's June 2018 update. - http://neven1.typepad.com/
Quote
2018 is 5th lowest right now, and the difference with last year has grown to a massive 1915 km3, which is 299 km3 more than last month.
i.e. a lot of additional volume to melt to produce a low result.
On the other hand 2012 and 2016 both lost 2300 km^3  more than last year after May 31st so some things are possible. However 2012 lost 8.3M km^2 extent  compared to 2016's 6.3M km^2 and 2017's 6.7M Km^2.
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mmghosh

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #74 on: June 16, 2018, 05:25:00 AM »
Warm winter, coolish summer seems to be the theme of the past 5 years.  I'm going with 4-4.5.  Not a record year, except, of course, cyclones.  Which can queer the pitch anytime with the ice being thin.

Shared Humanity

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #75 on: June 17, 2018, 03:05:40 PM »
Warm winter, coolish summer seems to be the theme of the past 5 years.  I'm going with 4-4.5.  Not a record year, except, of course, cyclones.  Which can queer the pitch anytime with the ice being thin.

And "warm winter, coolish summer" is exactly what you would expect if we are beginning the shift towards an equable climate. Arctic winters are warming more rapidly than Arctic summers and I also think this pattern will persist primarily due to the increased moisture and clouds in the Arctic. In the winter, clouds make it more difficult for heat to radiate into space. In the summer, they reduce insolation. While the Arctic will continue to warm in all seasons, these two effects of clouds will serve to reduce the range between winter and summer temperatures.

I've never voted on any poll on this site and have missed the deadline here but I think the community has properly congregated around middle values which are most likely.

Brigantine

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #76 on: September 20, 2018, 11:59:40 AM »
7% too high
23% correct
69% too low

litesong

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #77 on: September 20, 2018, 12:35:39 PM »
69% too low...
Of the 69% who hadn't considered that the solar TSI has been low for the last 12 years (including a 3+ year period, setting a 100 year record low), a good portion of them would have bumped up their predictions..... if they HAD considered such.

Jim Pettit

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #78 on: September 20, 2018, 10:52:06 PM »
69% too low...
Of the 69% who hadn't considered that the solar TSI has been low for the last 12 years (including a 3+ year period, setting a 100 year record low), a good portion of them would have bumped up their predictions..... if they HAD considered such.

It's a bit presumptuous to assume that those who were one bin too low "didn't consider" this or that factor, just as it's presumptuous to proclaim that this year's minimum was held where it was simply by low TSI. Did you know: for the year-to-date, 2018 sea ice extent is the second lowest on record? Did you know II: 2018 extent dropped from 9 million km2 to 6 million km2 in just 30 days--the fastest time ever, beating out even 2012 (32 days)? If reduced TSI is the culprit, and not weather, how can that be?

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #79 on: September 22, 2018, 08:07:51 AM »
Heh, TSI surely considered here, and thrown in the bin...
Much like my vote (which was the only one in these polls much like some others, 121 voters in the June poll) is floating down the stream like a dead fish. :)

On exactly 20180917 it will be exactly 4065739 kmĀ².  ;D

Ahh what would I know, went for 3.75 - 4.25. A bit surprised when seeing it was (or rather became) the top vote right now...
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charles_oil

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Re: JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #80 on: September 22, 2018, 08:18:26 AM »
Just a thought - on the challenging "poll" threads when we reach minimum / maximum - could the top post be updated to show the result / date / amount for quick future reference ?   Tks