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What will JAXA (ADS or NIPR) 2017 ASI September daily minimum be?

Above 5.0  million km2
1 (0.8%)
Between 4.75 and 5.0 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 4.5 and 4.75 million km2
2 (1.6%)
Between 4.25 and 4.5 million km2
1 (0.8%)
Between 4.0 and 4.25 million km2
4 (3.3%)
Between 3.75 and 4.0 million km2
10 (8.1%)
Between 3.5 and 3.75 million km2
12 (9.8%)
Between 3.25 and 3.5 million km2
6 (4.9%)
Between 3.0 and 3.25 million km2
19 (15.4%)
Between 2.75 and 3.0 million km2
25 (20.3%)
Between 2.5 and 2.75 million km2
12 (9.8%)
Between 2.25 and 2.5 million km2
7 (5.7%)
Between 2.0 and 2.25 million km2
6 (4.9%)
Between 1.75 and 2.0 million km2
4 (3.3%)
Between 1.5 and 1.75 million km2
1 (0.8%)
Between 1.25 and 1.5 million km2
1 (0.8%)
Between 1.0 and 1.25 million km2
2 (1.6%)
Between 0.75 and 1.0 million km2
6 (4.9%)
Between 0.5 and 0.75 million km2
1 (0.8%)
Between 0.25 and 0.5 million km2
2 (1.6%)
Between 0.0 and 0.25 million km2
1 (0.8%)

Total Members Voted: 121

Voting closed: June 12, 2017, 03:48:11 AM

Author Topic: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll  (Read 10235 times)

Juan C. García

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JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« on: June 01, 2017, 03:48:11 AM »
This JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent (previously released by IJIS, and now by ADS and NIPR) poll will run for 11 days. Until then you can change your vote. There will be a new poll next month.

These are the daily September minimums (in millions km2):

1980's Avg:   7.23
1990's Avg:   6.55
2000's Avg:   5.48
2000:   6.04
2001:   6.55
2002:   5.53
2003:   5.93
2004:   5.68
2005:   5.18
2006:   5.63
2007:   4.07
2008:   4.50
2009:   5.05
2010:   4.62
2011:   4.27
2012:   3.18
2013:   4.81
2014:   4.88
2015:   4.26
2016:   4.02

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various JAXA-ADS SIE data sets in this dedicated thread.
You can also see the ADS updated graph here.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2017, 09:32:26 AM by Neven »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2017, 05:19:33 AM »
Last year I started this poll in May, completely motivated by the huge gap between 2016 and any other year. On 2017, I should say that I am a little clueless, in terms of IJIS, even in June.

On one hand, there is the PIOMAS lowest volume on record, that adds to the vulnerability that I see on the fragmented ice. On the other hand, extent is kind of high (“kind of high” because we have become used to have it on the lowest position, but the reality is that it is low enough). Finally, there is the GFS Climate Reanalyzer heat forecast for this week. Will this heat really happen?

Well, at this moment I will vote a little lower than 2012 (2.75-3.00 million km2), that if it happen, will be a new lowest record. I could change my mind before the poll ends.  ;D
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: IJIS 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2017, 06:05:14 AM »
Thanks Juan for starting this poll, this year indeed has lots of uncertainties so it's kind of fun to shoot in the dark. May I suggest for the sake of our psychology to make the bins overlapping? 2.75-3.25, 2.5-3.0 etc.?

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2017, 07:09:40 AM »
Thanks Juan for starting this poll, this year indeed has lots of uncertainties so it's kind of fun to shoot in the dark. May I suggest for the sake of our psychology to make the bins overlapping? 2.75-3.25, 2.5-3.0 etc.?

Seems interesting your request. Maybe Neven will like to make his opinion.  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Paddy

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Re: IJIS 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2017, 07:31:05 AM »
I went for 3.0 to 3.25, or "as low as lowest previous". Bit of a fudge based on the record low volume now and the melting conditions to come being an unknown.

RikW

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Re: IJIS 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2017, 09:48:06 AM »
Since probably nobody else will choose the option 0.25 - 0.50 I'll chose that one, so if that happens I can say "told you so!" ;)

Richard Rathbone

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Re: IJIS 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #6 on: June 01, 2017, 01:30:36 PM »
Above 5 million. Bins are too small to go for anything else this far out.

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #7 on: June 01, 2017, 01:44:30 PM »
3.7m has been mine since March so thats what im sticking to though need daily melts in the 70s

Herfried

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Re: IJIS 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2017, 01:56:08 PM »
So much depends on the weather...

But the preconditioning looks terrible, the ice volume, thickness, state (rubble so much, just broken, solid plate so little)...
I think a record is likely, even if the weather is gentle.
If the weather is not (in particular in June), with insolation and warm air advection, we may see an ice free (below 1 million of km²) arctic this year. (The option I voted, taking some risk)

gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #9 on: June 01, 2017, 02:03:00 PM »
My little analysis of Jaxa extent data as at May 31 says:-

The remaining melt season is likely to be between 100 to 110 days. The table below shows the additional melt required from now to minimum to achieve various results.

 As At May 31     Melt required     As % of 2007/2016 average
 For 2016 Result     7,194,123    103.9%
 For 2012 Result     8,033,932    116.0%
 For 2007 Result     7,145,648    103.2%

The Average 2007-2016   melt from May 31 to minimum was 6,926,077 m2, which would result in a 2017 minimum of 4,285,310 m2.

Melt from now to minimum has increased over the years.  A 2012 result looks statistically unlikely. Being second lowest seems very possible. This is reinforced by recent large drops in Jaxa AMSR2 volume measurements (see below). So it is a guess of 4 million +/-  100,000 for me.




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seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2017, 08:36:47 PM »
I ll wait to June 10 to see if there,s early June cliff in area or not, and how things look for the following days. Right now I am at a loss...

Neven

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Re: IJIS 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #11 on: June 01, 2017, 09:35:50 PM »
Thanks Juan for starting this poll, this year indeed has lots of uncertainties so it's kind of fun to shoot in the dark. May I suggest for the sake of our psychology to make the bins overlapping? 2.75-3.25, 2.5-3.0 etc.?

Seems interesting your request. Maybe Neven will like to make his opinion.  ;)

I don't know why, but the idea appeals to me. I'm now going to put up the NSIDC SIE minimum poll as well, and will use the overlapping bins. I'm fine with both ways, so I'll leave it up to you to decide, Juan.

edit: It's better you leave it now like it is, Juan, as more than 50 people have already voted (wow!) and changing the bins just complicates things. Besides, they're fine as it is. If you want, you can do overlapping bins next month.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2017, 10:45:30 PM by Neven »
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Neven

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Re: IJIS 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #12 on: June 01, 2017, 10:43:58 PM »
NSIDC poll is now up as well.
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Re: IJIS 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2017, 07:07:51 AM »
My vote is in the 2.5 to 2.75 bucket, based on several years of observation and considering how young the ice is. Despite a slow start, the likelihood of record low ice still appears high. If my prognostications follow recent years results, I'll likely be far off the mark!

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2017, 10:07:31 AM »
Based on the much lower thickness of the ice this year I am expecting about 10% more extent loss than last year. I am assuming that most of the thinner ice is in the areas that had an average thickness of 1 - 3 metres of ice last year. We will see the real impact of that thinness over the next  two months.

My Vote is 2.5 to 2.75 M km^2.
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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #15 on: June 02, 2017, 09:17:27 PM »
Loving the broad spread of guesses. Seeing as our starting point this year is with an unprecedented low volume, I think it's fair to say that we really don't know where we'll end up.

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #16 on: June 04, 2017, 01:02:11 AM »
I voted "Between 2.25 and 2.5 million km2" based on the following summary.

JAXA                  
Year      Extent*     Delta      Percent delta   
1982      7.3            0.1             1.4%   
1987      7.2            0.0             0.0%   
1992      7.2            0.7             9.7%   
1997      6.5            1.0           15.4%   
2002      5.5            1.4           25.5%   
2007      4.1            0.9           22.0%   
2012      3.2            
*x 10^6 km^2 (estimated daily consensus across several days around annual minimum)

Sterks

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #17 on: June 06, 2017, 02:27:34 PM »
As in the other poll
Being consistent with my volume prediction, and with the belief bathymetry imposes hard limit to the minimum extent, I vote on a record or near record value: 3.00 - 3.25 m km2.

gerontocrat

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #18 on: June 06, 2017, 03:20:25 PM »
If the melt from now to minimum is the average of the last 10 years, minimum would be 4.25 km2.
To become 2nd lowest, i.e. just over 4 million km2, remaining melt would have to be about 3.5% greater than that 10 year average.
To become Lowest, i.e. just under 3.2 million km2, remaining melt would have to be about 16% greater than that 10 year average.

If from now to minimum remaining melt repeated the 2012 outlier, minimum would be about 2.85 million km2. But this would require remaining melt to be circa 21 % greater than the previous 10 years average.

These figures have barely changed over the last 20 days. There are about 100 melting days remaining, of which at least 10 one would expect to be low.

I voted for 3.75 to 4.0 km2, on the assumption that only a relatively small increase over the average (which is the trend throughout the satellite record) would make 2017 second lowest, and in the next few days I see no major weather changes to kick melting into a very high gear.

ps: Maximum insolation is only 2 weeks away.
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seaicesailor

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #19 on: June 06, 2017, 03:35:45 PM »
gerontocrat I think Thursday and Friday are going to be really warm Arctic-wide... The question is will it persist for some more days or things stay back to relatively cool?

gerontocrat

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #20 on: June 06, 2017, 04:32:20 PM »
gerontocrat I think Thursday and Friday are going to be really warm Arctic-wide... The question is will it persist for some more days or things stay back to relatively cool?

And on the other hand DMI 80 degrees N+ has dipped down again,
Jaxa AMSR2 volume is up by more than 1,000 km3 since the beginning of June,
CCI-reanalyszer 5 day forecast keeps on saying much warmer, and then daily forecast says only a tiny bit,
Every day is 1 percent of the melting season gone.

And on the other hand the average thickness graph is truly scary,
The images from the melting season and Nares Strait threads say the icecap is just a rubbish heap of ice.

What's a fella supposed to do. So until the numbers change a lot I stay with a sort of average influenced by some evidence that Arctic summers may tend to be a bit on the cool side while winters could even get more weird on the hot side.

If Arctic sea ice extent ends up as 2nd lowest again even with average temperatures this could be regarded as more significant than a lowest reading caused by extraordinary conditions.
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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #21 on: June 07, 2017, 11:10:12 PM »
I voted 2.5- 2.75 million. Most of that is the CAB.
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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #22 on: June 08, 2017, 03:30:04 AM »
I voted 2.0 -2.25 million, because I think volume will be driving extent this year.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #23 on: June 08, 2017, 02:59:51 PM »
I voted soon after the polls opened.  I'm intrigued that my vote in this (JAXA daily min) poll is in the 'most popular' bin whereas my vote in the NSIDC SIE Sept ave is one bin below the 'most popular' (and was the first vote in that bin).  My rationale was to vote in the highest bin that was totally in record territory.
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Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #25 on: June 10, 2017, 02:02:17 PM »
Less than 2 days to vote!

Thanks for participating!  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Neven

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #26 on: June 10, 2017, 11:55:01 PM »
Must not forget to vote, and so for now I have voted 'Between 3.75 and 4.0 million km2'. I'll be sure to vote lower next month if I see a couple of parameters move that way (SSTs, ice pack turning blue, PIOMAS, and of course, SIE measures themselves).
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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #27 on: June 11, 2017, 04:42:32 AM »
I chose Between 3.0 and 3.25 million because I think the volume in the Arctic Ocean is the lowest on record right now. But with all the peripheral areas that could keep the overall higher (still near record low). However, I think the Arctic Ocean itself could be the only story anyone is talking about by September, and could almost crash.

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #28 on: June 11, 2017, 07:45:44 PM »
I is the only 0.5 to 0.75.
Tried to vote 0.75 to 1.0 but the forum god said SOD OFF! Go and log out and log back in again after you had a think ya lousy lurka. So far things seem going just as I suggested they would a month ago. The sublimation of snow on the pack combined with extreme surface area and saltiness of the  shattered and rotten pack has pegged temps a bit lower than we usually get because of melting point lowering. Temps can actually lower when melt gets underway in such a scenario. And this has likely been the reason the peripheral landmasses have been tardy with  ditching their snowcover more than the above normal depth. But now we is gonna see a dangerous solstice meltout of more than usual volume. Riverine fluxes peaking when insolation is maxing thereby spiking the temps of the water entering the ocean to unprecedented levels. Most likely a flash breakin of high temps from off the continents where heats been building behind the coastal snow barricade. Betcha the sudden proximity of steamy coastal marsh delta etc to salty high surface area salt slush will whip up prolific local thunderstorms and tornadoes even. Could be quite a show big humid convectin in a ring around the basin dumpin warm rain and viciously whipping up the seastate then descending dry in a big persistent baking sun cab high  thats flinging out the ice into the frontline destruction zone seems a plausible scenario.
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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #29 on: June 11, 2017, 08:07:47 PM »
I is the only 0.5 to 0.75.
Tried to vote 0.75 to 1.0 but the forum god said SOD OFF! Go and log out and log back in again after you had a think ya lousy lurka. So far things seem going just as I suggested they would a month ago. The sublimation of snow on the pack combined with extreme surface area and saltiness of the  shattered and rotten pack has pegged temps a bit lower than we usually get because of melting point lowering. Temps can actually lower when melt gets underway in such a scenario. And this has likely been the reason the peripheral landmasses have been tardy with  ditching their snowcover more than the above normal depth. But now we is gonna see a dangerous solstice meltout of more than usual volume. Riverine fluxes peaking when insolation is maxing thereby spiking the temps of the water entering the ocean to unprecedented levels. Most likely a flash breakin of high temps from off the continents where heats been building behind the coastal snow barricade. Betcha the sudden proximity of steamy coastal marsh delta etc to salty high surface area salt slush will whip up prolific local thunderstorms and tornadoes even. Could be quite a show big humid convectin in a ring around the basin dumpin warm rain and viciously whipping up the seastate then descending dry in a big persistent baking sun cab high  thats flinging out the ice into the frontline destruction zone seems a plausible scenario.

Wow, man. That's an honest but (maybe) realistic Assessment of the Situation. And then the 50 Gt Burst of CH4. Unless, of course, Nuclear Winter is initiated.
I chose 2,5- 2,75 m km2
« Last Edit: June 11, 2017, 08:13:15 PM by meddoc »

magnamentis

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #30 on: June 11, 2017, 11:42:59 PM »
I is the only 0.5 to 0.75.
Tried to vote 0.75 to 1.0 but the forum god said SOD OFF! Go and log out and log back in again after you had a think ya lousy lurka. So far things seem going just as I suggested they would a month ago. The sublimation of snow on the pack combined with extreme surface area and saltiness of the  shattered and rotten pack has pegged temps a bit lower than we usually get because of melting point lowering. Temps can actually lower when melt gets underway in such a scenario. And this has likely been the reason the peripheral landmasses have been tardy with  ditching their snowcover more than the above normal depth. But now we is gonna see a dangerous solstice meltout of more than usual volume. Riverine fluxes peaking when insolation is maxing thereby spiking the temps of the water entering the ocean to unprecedented levels. Most likely a flash breakin of high temps from off the continents where heats been building behind the coastal snow barricade. Betcha the sudden proximity of steamy coastal marsh delta etc to salty high surface area salt slush will whip up prolific local thunderstorms and tornadoes even. Could be quite a show big humid convectin in a ring around the basin dumpin warm rain and viciously whipping up the seastate then descending dry in a big persistent baking sun cab high  thats flinging out the ice into the frontline destruction zone seems a plausible scenario.

Wow, man. That's an honest but (maybe) realistic Assessment of the Situation. And then the 50 Gt Burst of CH4. Unless, of course, Nuclear Winter is initiated.
I chose 2,5- 2,75 m km2

slightly above with 2.75-3.00 m km2
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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #31 on: June 12, 2017, 03:29:16 AM »
I chose 3.5 - 3.75, which is half way between 2012 and 2016.

I'm assuming that the rest of the melt season will see average melt weather, not high melt weather like in 2012 nor low melt weather like in 2013 and 2014 but average melt weather like in 2015 and 2016. Average melt weather is not enough to keep with 2012 but should be enough stay below 2016.

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Re: IJIS 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #32 on: June 12, 2017, 06:50:10 AM »
Thanks Juan for starting this poll, this year indeed has lots of uncertainties so it's kind of fun to shoot in the dark. May I suggest for the sake of our psychology to make the bins overlapping? 2.75-3.25, 2.5-3.0 etc.?
I think that this is a really bad idea! it give people permission to be flaky. If people are in adjoining bins were they really voting for the same thing or not? Going to make for poor quality statistics is it not?

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Re: IJIS 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #33 on: June 12, 2017, 02:24:10 PM »
Thanks Juan for starting this poll, this year indeed has lots of uncertainties so it's kind of fun to shoot in the dark. May I suggest for the sake of our psychology to make the bins overlapping? 2.75-3.25, 2.5-3.0 etc.?
I think that this is a really bad idea! it give people permission to be flaky. If people are in adjoining bins were they really voting for the same thing or not? Going to make for poor quality statistics is it not?
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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #34 on: June 14, 2017, 02:38:58 PM »
Our collective prediction record in this poll series is pretty abysmal, and it's strongly biased towards too-low guesses:

June 2013 poll: 99% of predictions were too low, 1% were too high
June 2014 poll: 95% too low, 2% too high
June 2015 poll: 66% too low, 27% too high
June 2016 poll: 91% too low, 3% too high

Looking at those results from prior years, and the distribution of this month's poll responses so far, I'll go with 4.0-4.25 million km2 this year.  [Edit: er, I would go with that, if the poll hadn't closed on 12 June... oops!]
« Last Edit: June 14, 2017, 02:52:43 PM by Ned W »

Neven

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #35 on: June 14, 2017, 03:48:05 PM »
Come on, Ned. If you vote too late, how can our collective prediction record ever improve?  ;)

The next poll will start July 1st.

Funny, BTW, that 2015 stands out so much from the other ones. Could you do the same for July and August, once those polls have closed?
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Steven

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #36 on: June 14, 2017, 06:43:46 PM »
Our collective prediction record in this poll series is pretty abysmal, and it's strongly biased towards too-low guesses:

June 2013 poll: 99% of predictions were too low, 1% were too high
June 2014 poll: 95% too low, 2% too high
June 2015 poll: 66% too low, 27% too high
June 2016 poll: 91% too low, 3% too high

You seem to be assuming that all those polls were for the JAXA minimum extent.  However, from 2013 to 2015 there were only polls for the NSIDC September monthly extent.  There were no polls for the JAXA minimum extent in those years.

So it's even worse:

June 2013 poll:  99% of predictions were too low, 0% were too high
June 2014 poll:  98% too low, 0% too high
June 2015 poll:  73% too low, 18% too high
June 2016 poll:  91% too low, 3% too high (JAXA),  and 94% too low, 2% too high (NSIDC)

magnamentis

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #37 on: June 14, 2017, 06:58:31 PM »
Our collective prediction record in this poll series is pretty abysmal, and it's strongly biased towards too-low guesses:

June 2013 poll: 99% of predictions were too low, 1% were too high
June 2014 poll: 95% too low, 2% too high
June 2015 poll: 66% too low, 27% too high
June 2016 poll: 91% too low, 3% too high

Looking at those results from prior years, and the distribution of this month's poll responses so far, I'll go with 4.0-4.25 million km2 this year.  [Edit: er, I would go with that, if the poll hadn't closed on 12 June... oops!]

since we can hardly get a weather forecasts for more than 3 days that is worth the term, all those polls are of course a lot of guessing but:

all the ingredients are there for a 30% drop in september minimum, all the factors just have to come together like in 2012.

the year that will resemble 2012 or worse will probably leave us with around 50% of the average sea-ice minimum but no-one can tell when it happens, only thing i gonna lean out of the window very very far is that it WILL happen and that year you will look the way we're looking now LOL

only one more thing ( i know that stevie died ) it's better to expect the worse and take precaution than discard what will happen as biased before it happens and drown (or any other form of sudden death)  symbolically speaking.
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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #38 on: June 15, 2017, 03:57:46 PM »
Come on, Ned. If you vote too late, how can our collective prediction record ever improve?  ;)
The number of participants in the June poll had increased every year ... until this year, when it was down slightly.  And I was partly responsible for that.  Oops!

Funny, BTW, that 2015 stands out so much from the other ones. Could you do the same for July and August, once those polls have closed?
"do the same" meaning forget to vote until after polls have closed?  or meaning look back and find the results from past polls?   :)

Yes, 2015 was quite different.  We were much less inaccurate.  And in three months from now I'll be curious to see how we (well, those of us who didn't forget to vote in time) did in the 2017 June poll.

You seem to be assuming that all those polls were for the JAXA minimum extent.  However, from 2013 to 2015 there were only polls for the NSIDC September monthly extent.  There were no polls for the JAXA minimum extent in those years.
Quite right. I was basing this on a discussion started by Chris Reynolds last year:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1572.msg89649.html#msg89649

Poll numbers were taken from that thread.


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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #39 on: June 15, 2017, 06:58:48 PM »
You seem to be assuming that all those polls were for the JAXA minimum extent.  However, from 2013 to 2015 there were only polls for the NSIDC September monthly extent.  There were no polls for the JAXA minimum extent in those years.
Quite right. I was basing this on a discussion started by Chris Reynolds last year:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1572.msg89649.html#msg89649

Poll numbers were taken from that thread.

Nice visualisations by Chris.

I updated his graphics.  Here is one that illustrates the votes in the June polls for NSIDC September extent on this forum in the last few years.  The correct bins have a fluo green background.




and here is a similar graphic for the JAXA minimum extent polls in 2016 and 2017.

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #40 on: June 20, 2017, 02:58:52 PM »
Just for fun, I thought I'd do a prediction for IJIS for the rest of the season, based on the value from 10 June (basically, the end of the poll period) plus the previous ten years' trends from 10 June to 30 September. 



The predicted daily min is 4.21 million km2, which would put 2017 in 4th place (as it is now). But the 95% CI is very wide -- 3.22 to 5.12, which covers the range from 2nd to 11th place (of 11 total; ignoring pre-2007 years).  So, not a very useful prediction.  But about 36% of the June poll responses suggest that 2017 will be at or below the 95% CI for this model.

Note that although there is a slight downward trend in the daily minimum (2007-2016), there's actually a slight *upward* trend in the change from 10 June to minimum (i.e., slightly less loss of ice). Neither trend is significant, so the model ignores them both.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2017, 02:24:23 PM by Ned W »

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #41 on: June 20, 2017, 10:34:26 PM »
...But about 36% of the June poll responses suggest that 2017 will be at or below the 95% CI for this model....
You have to understand that there are a fair number of us who are convinced that eventually the fresh water lens will get stirred away, and with that the ice will simply go away too (without regard to time of year).  Our problem is that we don't know when this will happen.  So I, for example, think a prediction of a zero ice minimum is perfectly reasonable every year since I expect it will happen some year soon.

For me trends are very interesting, but also not at all indicative.  If you could give me better real data on the state of the halocline I would be much indebted.

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #42 on: June 21, 2017, 01:12:22 AM »
Its much more fun to see the ice melt completely, which is why I suspect most people here vote for the lower bins.  I know I do.  After all, disaster porn has its attractions, too.

And we want to see it in our lifetimes!  Who wants to wait for boring, middle of the road IPCC predictions of the 2040s?

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #43 on: September 24, 2017, 10:15:46 AM »
The JAXA extent minimum for 2017 was 4.47 million km2 on 9 September 2017.  So the correct bin in this poll was 4.25-4.5.

This means that 96.8 percent of the votes in this poll were too low, 2.4% were too high, and 0.8% were in the correct bin.  Moreover, the median of the votes in this poll was about 2.93 million km2, which is 1.54 million km2 too low.

Compare with previous years:

Quote
June 2013 poll:  99% of predictions were too low, 0% were too high
June 2014 poll:  98% too low, 0% too high
June 2015 poll:  73% too low, 18% too high
June 2016 poll:  91% too low, 3% too high (JAXA),  and 94% too low, 2% too high (NSIDC)

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #44 on: September 24, 2017, 01:56:44 PM »
The JAXA extent minimum for 2017 was 4.47 million km2 on 9 September 2017.  So the correct bin in this poll was 4.25-4.5.

This means that 96.8 percent of the votes in this poll were too low, 2.4% were too high, and 0.8% were in the correct bin.  Moreover, the median of the votes in this poll was about 2.93 million km2, which is 1.54 million km2 too low.

Compare with previous years:

Quote


June 2013 poll:  99% of predictions were too low, 0% were too high
June 2014 poll:  98% too low, 0% too high
June 2015 poll:  73% too low, 18% too high
June 2016 poll:  91% too low, 3% too high (JAXA),  and 94% too low, 2% too high (NSIDC)

Thanks for pointing out the obvious. For 5 years in a row now the large majority of posters on this site have been wrong about the ice. This isn't random bias either, as they are always overestimating melt. It's past time for most people here to adjust for their bias and follow the data more closely.

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #45 on: September 24, 2017, 07:24:56 PM »
The JAXA extent minimum for 2017 was 4.47 million km2 on 9 September 2017.  So the correct bin in this poll was 4.25-4.5.

This means that 96.8 percent of the votes in this poll were too low, 2.4% were too high, and 0.8% were in the correct bin.  Moreover, the median of the votes in this poll was about 2.93 million km2, which is 1.54 million km2 too low.

Compare with previous years:

Quote


June 2013 poll:  99% of predictions were too low, 0% were too high
June 2014 poll:  98% too low, 0% too high
June 2015 poll:  73% too low, 18% too high
June 2016 poll:  91% too low, 3% too high (JAXA),  and 94% too low, 2% too high (NSIDC)

Thanks for pointing out the obvious. For 5 years in a row now the large majority of posters on this site have been wrong about the ice. This isn't random bias either, as they are always overestimating melt. It's past time for most people here to adjust for their bias and follow the data more closely.

Adjustment needed.  Truedat

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #46 on: September 24, 2017, 09:58:52 PM »
The JAXA extent minimum for 2017 was 4.47 million km2 on 9 September 2017.  So the correct bin in this poll was 4.25-4.5.

This means that 96.8 percent of the votes in this poll were too low, 2.4% were too high, and 0.8% were in the correct bin.  Moreover, the median of the votes in this poll was about 2.93 million km2, which is 1.54 million km2 too low.

Compare with previous years:

Quote


June 2013 poll:  99% of predictions were too low, 0% were too high
June 2014 poll:  98% too low, 0% too high
June 2015 poll:  73% too low, 18% too high
June 2016 poll:  91% too low, 3% too high (JAXA),  and 94% too low, 2% too high (NSIDC)

Thanks for pointing out the obvious. For 5 years in a row now the large majority of posters on this site have been wrong about the ice. This isn't random bias either, as they are always overestimating melt. It's past time for most people here to adjust for their bias and follow the data more closely.

Adjustment needed.  Truedat
Now hang on just a minute.  The June poll is absolutely not intended to be definitive, and for many of us is our best guess based on previous behavior of the system. 

For example, my guess (3.25-3.5 million) was based on the application of a statistical expectation of typical summer melt behavior going back to 1980.  What made my guess wrong was something that hasn't been predictable - peak melt season weather.

I'll also say that my later season estimates have been much closer - even dead on (IJIS extent).

There may be bias, but most of the guesswork being done *is* founded on reasonable expectations.  With the ice in its current state, as it has been since after 2007 and more so after 2012, each season is a dice roll.  If we'd had conditions like 2007 or 2012, no doubt my estimate this year would have been on the *high* side, and we all be talking about how our bias was wrong in the opposite direction.
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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #47 on: September 25, 2017, 04:28:01 PM »
Thanks for pointing out the obvious. For 5 years in a row now the large majority of posters on this site have been wrong about the ice. This isn't random bias either, as they are always overestimating melt. It's past time for most people here to adjust for their bias and follow the data more closely.

Casting wide aspersions on the many good people here--"the large majority of posters on this site have been wrong", "they are always overestimating melt", "It's past time for most people here to adjust for their bias"--isn't going to win you any friends, or any respect. Maybe you don't care about that; that's up to you. But a friendly word of advice: don't do that.

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #48 on: September 25, 2017, 08:29:45 PM »
Thanks for pointing out the obvious. For 5 years in a row now the large majority of posters on this site have been wrong about the ice. This isn't random bias either, as they are always overestimating melt. It's past time for most people here to adjust for their bias and follow the data more closely.

Thanks God (for those who believe) or thanks to just our luck (for those who don't), that we have been wrong the last 5 years. But, at least on 2016 and 2017, the numbers at the beginning of the melting season were terrible! I think that most humans are not aware of the ASI weakness.
On the other hand, the Forum did not exist on 2012, but the comments in the Neven's ASIB were right. I would hope that they were also wrong...
I think that we should not underestimate the low values on 2007, 2011 and 2015-2017. They are not good, even if the late ones were better than what we though on this Forum.
So, great that we haven't have another year like 2012, yet. But we are getting used to have bad years, and it is really stupid to think that we should have an ice free Arctic, in order to recognized the bad situation of the ASI.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2017, 09:26:59 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« Reply #49 on: September 25, 2017, 09:22:36 PM »
Hanging everything on the minimum is too simplistic. In the last 15 days JAXA extent has changed from 0.4 million above 2016 extent to 0.1 million below 2016 extent, adding a bit more data to speculations about a change in summer / winter arctic weather. Much more interesting than fruitless debate on inbuilt bias of predictions on something where data is still so poor.
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