JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll

[Neven]

A month ago it was predicting 4.2 IIRC, and a week ago that had dropped to 4.1.  At that point I could have gone with either the 3.75-4.25 range or the 4.0-4.5 for this month's poll. For various qualitative reasons I decided to go with the lower range.  Now at 4.3 the mean estimate from the predict-o-matic is (slightly) outside the range I chose.  Argh.

Ned, you still have one day left to change your vote.

Given the current slowdown in JAXA SIE decrease, I'm going up one bin to 'Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km2'.

[EgalSust]

Median prediction was between 3.25 and 3.75 Mkm², which would mean second lowest extent.

[Ned W]

A month ago it was predicting 4.2 IIRC, and a week ago that had dropped to 4.1.  At that point I could have gone with either the 3.75-4.25 range or the 4.0-4.5 for this month's poll. For various qualitative reasons I decided to go with the lower range.  Now at 4.3 the mean estimate from the predict-o-matic is (slightly) outside the range I chose.  Argh.

Ned, you still have one day left to change your vote.

Given the current slowdown in JAXA SIE decrease, I'm going up one bin to 'Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km2'.

I think you are probably correct.  But I stuck with the 3.75-4.25 range out of sheer inertia. 

Thanks to all those century breaks (which you predicted!) the predict-o-matic is back down into the area of overlap between your guess and mine. But I would bet that within a few days it will have drifted back up out of "my" range.

This is fun.

[Neven]

I think you are probably correct.  But I stuck with the 3.75-4.25 range out of sheer inertia. 

Thanks to all those century breaks (which you predicted!) the predict-o-matic is back down into the area of overlap between your guess and mine. But I would bet that within a few days it will have drifted back up out of "my" range.

This is fun.

Thanks to the overlapping bins, we can both be right. 

But I can't wait to see if the century breaks keep rolling in, despite that persistent low over the CAB. Uni Hamburg AMSR2 and NSIDC suggest no for now, but my impression is there's still a lot of weak ice on the periphery.