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TerryM

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Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« on: April 09, 2013, 05:45:18 AM »
OLN & I are working on a presentation about the retreat of the Arctic Sea Ice. Something we hope to show is how predictions of when the Arctic will first be ice free have changed over time. Some predictions were for the first seasonally ice free Arctic & others were for a permanently ice free Arctic Ocean.


Any predictions that are attributable and datable within a year would be very much appreciated.


Terry

Juan C. García

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2013, 06:21:59 AM »
NSIDC, October 1st, 2007:
Quote
NSIDC scientists monitor and study Arctic sea ice year round, analyzing satellite data and seeking to understand the regional changes and complex feedbacks that we are seeing. Serreze said, “The sea ice cover is in a downward spiral and may have passed the point of no return. As the years go by, we are losing more and more ice in summer, and growing back less and less ice in winter. We may well see an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer within our lifetimes.” The scientists agree that this could occur by 2030. Serreze concluded, “The implications for global climate, as well as Arctic animals and people, are disturbing."
http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20071001_pressrelease.html

It seem too early when it was said at 2007. Five years later, I am convinced that it is going to happen before 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

windsphere

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2013, 05:08:11 PM »
I would also be happy to see a graph that shows when and who estimated the ice loss for both sea-ice and  arctic ice. I remember 1000, yrs then 100yrs (still reported on some sites) and 30...

Waldhams? not sure that I have his name correct yet has had shorter time frames.

With this it would help to see the shift in understanding and reporting of Climate issues. (also on my wish list- the groups that now know that fracking is not a benefit in creating climate balance)

Seeing the graphs and charts on this site have been amazing! Thank you all so much really appreciate being able to read/see and learn from you. You collaborate so well and have respectful attitudes and open minds. You really makes the hard stuff more even-- not sure what word- but you give the feeling that there are "adults" with some humor in the room... cheers!

Vergent

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2013, 07:36:17 AM »
Terry,

Congrats on your 100th post, and "full member" status!

I have posted that the decay rate since 2002 has been V = 0.1  Where V equals the factor you have to multiply the "predicted years to ice free" by to create a consistent set of predictions. I provided links for each data point. I will look for the posts and links tomorrow.

V

Anne

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #4 on: April 10, 2013, 09:25:00 PM »
Terry, I'm not sure this is any help, but footnote 29 on page 10 of the January 2013 report Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress cites some earlier studies for its own prediction of "a recurrent ice-free ocean (in summers) as soon as the late 2030s." (page 11).  Anyway, some of those may give you leads to earlier studies.
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41153.pdf

The whole report is interesting (or worrying, depending on your point of view) as a guide to future US policy in the Arctic.

Donna

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #5 on: April 10, 2013, 09:57:06 PM »
Not sure if this is what you're looking for but there are a number of papers referenced that may be of help. 

The Future of Arctic Sea Ice
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Vol. 40: 625-654 (Volume publication date May 2012)
First published online as a Review in Advance on March 8, 2012
DOI: 10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105345
Wieslaw Maslowski,1 Jaclyn Clement Kinney,1 Matthew Higgins,2 and Andrew Roberts1

http://www.annualreviews.org/eprint/wuwatQenfcpJFiP2g6ux/full/10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105345

Best of luck with your project - I hope you'll share when it's finished.

TerryM

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2013, 11:07:33 PM »
Thanks to everyone - but I need more -


I'm hoping to put together a chart showing predicted dates for the demise of Arctic Sea Ice over time. It will be a small portion of a presentation I'll be giving in May. The data that Vergent mentioned may fit the bill.


I'd tried for some time to locate a speaker that would wow the audience with evidence of just how soon we'll be running out of Arctic ice, and how this will affect all of us. When it finally dawned on me that no speaker was available I decided to do it myself. OldLeatherneck volunteered to help & it turns out that he had been doing this kind of thing professionally for some time. I'm a slow student, but we are making progress.


In a perfect world we would have a speakers bureau that could dispatch entertaining and informative speakers around the globe to talk about Arctic Ice.. Since the world isn't perfect, we're hoping that our imperfect presentation might be useful for anyone with the opportunity to speak at anything from a local garden group to a political meeting.


What we're doing will be quite generic and short (I've only a 45 min slot including fielding questions), but it might be the kind of thing that could be built on to address the concerns of a particular audience. The URL will be posted here & possibly at a few other blogs that take the subject seriously.


Terry





Neven

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2013, 12:27:35 AM »
How about the first three IPCC reports? Here's something from AR4.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

TerryM

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2013, 03:31:07 AM »
Neven


Both excellent - don't know how I could have forgotten the 1st one.


Terry

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #9 on: April 11, 2013, 11:02:09 PM »
Terry,

This might be rather hard.

Around 2000 it was still considered a reasonable position to expect a recovery of ice due to papers linking decline to the +ve AO and increased Fram export over the early 1990s. For example Vinje et al 2000 "Fram Strait Ice Fluxes and Atmospheric Circulation: 1950–2000" conclude:

Quote
The significant increase of ;40% in the ice efflux
from 1990 to 1997 indicates a contemporary decreasing
ice thickness in the Arctic Ocean during the recent decade.
However, provided a continuation of the observed
cycling in the ice efflux, or the atmospheric circulation,
we should expect a reduction in the ice efflux, and, a
thickening of the ice in the Arctic Ocean during the next
decade. A future thickening of the ice is also predicted
by Polyakov et al. (1999) in connection with an observed
reversal to an anticyclonic ice circulation in the
reservoir toward the end of 1990.

I did have a copy of the Polyakov paper years ago but lost it in a burglary (computer and disks near computer taken). I can't find a free copy now.

In a 2000 review paper "OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OF RECENT CHANGE IN THE
NORTHERN HIGH-LATITUDE ENVIRONMENT" Serreze finds:

Quote
Conclusions that greenhouse-gas forcing has been a significant player in recent
Arctic warming must be viewed cautiously. There is general agreement between
climate model predictions and observations in terms of annual mean warming over
the past several decades and for maximum warming in northern continental regions. However, discrepancy arises in the seasonality of change. In general, models
project the largest warming during late autumn and winter (Kattenberg et al., 1996).
By comparison, the observations show maximum winter and spring warming for
land, and winter through summer warming over the Arctic Ocean.

Serreze finds regards  sea ice that there probably was a decline, but does not mention the prospect of an ice free Arctic.

In 2006 Winton produced "Does the Arctic sea ice have a tipping point?" It was from models used in IPCC AR4(2007), and was pre-2007. There is a clear shift in expectation after 2007. Search for

Winton "Does the Arctic sea ice have a tipping point?"

You should find a paywall free copy top link in Google Scholar. Figure 1 uses polar albedo as a proxy for decline of sea ice. the earliest substantial drop in albedo is 50 years in the future, the latest over 150 years.

Wang and Overland select a subset of models that reproduce the seasonal cycle in a 2009 paper: "A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?"
http://archive.mrc.org/pdf/WANG-OVERLAND-ARCTIC%20SEA%20ICE%20ESTIMATE.pdf
The title shows how much shorter estimates were after 2007.

Sorry I can't be of more help.

Vergent

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2013, 12:57:59 AM »
Terry,

http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=arctic+ocean+ice-free&btnG=&as_sdt=1%2C5&as_sdtp=

http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/dec2002/2002-12-02-06.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/apr/08/science.environment

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2004/nov/03/environment.environment

http://www.cicero.uio.no/fulltext/index_e.aspx?id=3251

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6NcBhOfVaHA&refer=canada

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/1499505/Arctic-ice-cap-will-disappear-within-the-century.html

http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=320afea9-2541-42e3-b65f-0c158141b53f&k=65914

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a54NCnkKHdnU&refer=canada

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2007/10/02/uk-arctic-ice-idUKN0134058320071002

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/science/discoveries/2005-10-30-arctic-agenda_x.htm

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=5265092&page=1#.UWc7m6LTMSY

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2009/10/15/us-climate-britain-arctic-science-idUSTRE59E18W20091015

http://www.ipsnews.net/2008/09/climate-change-arctic-meltdown-signals-long-term-trend/

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2009/10/17/scientist-arctic-ocean-ice-free-summer/

http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/aug2008/2008-08-28-02.asp

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/united-nations-ban-ki-moon-warns-world-could-be-ice-free-by-2030/story-e6frf7lf-1225768719694

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5116352/Arctic-will-be-ice-free-within-a-decade.html

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,566601,00.html?test=latestnews

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/article2447616.ece

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21521-melting-sea-ice-could-trigger-colder-winters.html

http://tbo.com/news/nation-world/2011/may/04/T2NEWSO2-arctic-ice-shrinking-quickly-study-finds-ar-204600/

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21626-arctic-sea-ice-may-have-passed-crucial-tipping-point.html

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9N01Q600.htm

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v483/n7387_supp/full/483S12a.html


http://www.greenleft.org.au/node/48859

http://www.livescience.com/14773-atlantic-ocean-europe-climate-change-plankton.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/mobile/science-environment-13002706

V
« Last Edit: April 12, 2013, 01:07:49 AM by Vergent »

frankendoodle

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #11 on: April 17, 2013, 05:59:15 AM »
Terry,

NOAA has only recently capitulated that this will happen during the first half of the century and maybe sooner. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013//20130412_arcticseaice.html

This is in stark contrast to their past insistence on the validity of various models. Case in point, this graphic:

Also, I hope this link to NASA's Goddard Center will also be helpful: http://gcmd.nasa.gov/KeywordSearch/Metadata.do?Portal=GCMD_legacy&KeywordPath=Parameters%7CCLIMATE+INDICATORS&OrigMetadataNode=GCMD&EntryId=GFDL_Arctic_Sea_Ice_Changes_1860-2100&MetadataView=Full&MetadataType=0&lbnode=mdlb2

TerryM

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #12 on: April 17, 2013, 08:52:40 AM »
That graphic is great!


Thanks so much
Terry

Vergent

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #13 on: April 17, 2013, 02:26:27 PM »


The date on the right side of the graphic is 37 years off.

V

frankendoodle

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #14 on: April 17, 2013, 06:12:02 PM »
You're welcome Terry, please let us all know how your presentation goes.

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #15 on: April 17, 2013, 11:43:09 PM »
THANKS TO ALL

Terry just informed me last evening that he now has 75 minutes for his presentation.  I know that we are gathering more data and charts than he will be able to use even in that allotted time.
However, once the package is nearing completion I'm sure we will have several files available for our fellow Forum members to view and use for their own presentation purposes.

Terry, as most of you know is very ambitious and full of ideas.  Also, I'm learning that he has a good grasp of developing a storyline for the message he wants to impart to his audience (Fellow MENSA Members in Canada).  My role is just to coach him through the process of creating a presentable slideshow that helps him tell his story in the allotted time.

This has been my first experience using GoogleDocs as a collaboration platform.  It's already been a rewarding learning experience and I'm hoping the lessons we learned can be shared with others.

Thanks again for all of you who have and will contribute to this effort.
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

Anne

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #16 on: April 26, 2013, 06:57:41 PM »
I realise this is late and you have more than enough material already, but this is interesting: as recently as May 2007 Peter Wadhams was quoted by the BBC as predicting ice-free Arctic summers during the second half of the century:
Quote
"Overall, the extent has been declining, with some oscillations, since the 1970s when satellites were able to map it," comments Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics at Cambridge University, UK, and currently at the Laboratoire Océanographique in Villefranche-sur-mer, France.

"There's been a slow decline, but now the thinning appears to be more rapid.

"In the last two decades, not only has the area shrunk but the ice has got thinner by about 40%; the prediction is that it will vanish altogether during summers in the second half of this century."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4315968.stm

JohnL

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #17 on: May 22, 2013, 03:20:02 AM »
New study published in Geophysical Research Letters, When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice free? by Overland and Wang

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50316/full

sofouuk

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #18 on: May 22, 2013, 04:10:53 AM »
thx, John L, tho for some reason couldn't help feeling slightly depressed as i read through it  :'(: 1) extrapolate the volume data, 4 years to go; 2) if it's going to take three more 'catatrophic loss' years, about 15 years to go; 3) if the models are right (well, obviously they're behind the curve right now), 30-50 years to go

think the reason i found the paper frustrating is partly because it's too short, and partly because it says nothing of significance that hasn't already been rehashed endlessly on the ASIB and here. i mean, we know this stuff - the question is, who are most likely to be right. are there good reasons to expect a long tail (esp. winter 'recovery'; difficulty of removing highest latitude ice) or will it really all just 'melt away suddenly'? right when the paper could have got interesting, all it gives is this:

'We have investigated three approaches to predicting 21st century summer Arctic sea ice loss as represented by trendsetters, stochasters, and modelers. At present, it is not possible to completely choose one approach over another as all approaches have strengths and weaknesses.'

... which, as lame cop-outs go, is down there with the worst of them. in that case, why bother to write the paper? you haven't meaningfully 'investigated' anything

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #19 on: May 22, 2013, 01:13:01 PM »
Its been linked off the forum before. Maybe you think it says nothing new because you already read it?

Its an academic paper saying that simple extrapolation of the data is as good as the fancy models. That's a significant shift from what has been published before. They probably couldn't get anything stronger past the reviewers.

Espen

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #20 on: May 22, 2013, 01:56:39 PM »
Have a ice day!

sofouuk

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Re: Historic Predictions of an Ice Free Arctic
« Reply #21 on: May 22, 2013, 03:29:20 PM »
I hadn't read it before. Whatever.