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Hefaistos

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Places becoming more livable
« on: July 06, 2017, 10:23:00 PM »
Article about very interesting redistribution of humidity due to global warming. From dry to wet: Rainfall might abruptly increase in Africa’s Sahel . It's a region that historically has been more humid, and 'green' than todays very arid/desert.

"Climate change could turn one of Africa's driest regions into a very wet one by suddenly switching on a Monsoon circulation. For the first time, scientists find evidence in computer simulations for a possible abrupt change to heavy seasonal rainfall in the Sahel, a region that so far has been characterized by extreme dryness. They detect a self-amplifying mechanism which might kick-in beyond 1.5-2 degrees Celsius of global warming."

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/from-dry-to-wet-rainfall-might-abruptly-increase-in-africa2019s-sahel

Research article, paywalled:
http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/495/2017/

Tom_Mazanec

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SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

kassy

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #2 on: June 19, 2019, 02:40:22 PM »
Maybe you wanted to put that in the less liveable thread?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #3 on: June 19, 2019, 02:50:56 PM »
OMG!

Thanks, Kassy!


Archimid

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2019, 03:00:16 PM »
Well, Siberia will get more livable:
https://grist.org/article/forget-colonizing-mars-we-can-all-move-to-russia-when-the-world-heats-up/

Only while the Arctic holds and after the NH hemisphere stabilizes after an Arctic collapse ( decades?). In the time in between collapse and climate stabilization Siberia will be uninhabitable.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Hefaistos

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2019, 12:57:55 PM »

Global heating: London to have climate similar to Barcelona by 2050
"London will have a similar climate in three decades’ time to that of Barcelona today, according to research – but if that seems enticing, a warning: the change could be accompanied by severe drought."
Severe drought in London?!

OTOH, more places will become less livable: Nearly 80% of cities to undergo dramatic and potentially disastrous changes, study finds. "Among the most concerning findings is that the residents of about a fifth of cities globally – including Jakarta, Singapore, Yangon and Kuala Lumpur – will experience conditions currently not seen in any major cities in the world."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/10/global-heating-london-similar-climate-barcelona-2050

TerryM

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2019, 07:58:25 AM »
I believe the Waterloo Region in Ontario's "livability" has increased over my lifetime.


Improvements:
The river no longer freezes over each year so the Spring Floods, once the fear of everyone up and down the river no longer occur.
The river no longer suffers from pollution and won an international competition for the remediation.
The roadways suffer far less from flooding and frost heaves.
Universities have replaced factories and mills as the major regional employers.
Education has improved;
Healthcare has improved in quality and availability since it was nationalized.
Spring, Summer and Fall have extended. Winters are shorter and warmer.
The available social safety-nets have improved.
Median income & wealth have improved.


Neutral:
Skating has moved indoors.
Swimming is replacing skiing and snowshoeing.
Violent crime is still very much a rarity.
Infrastructure has kept up - Mills became townhouses or restaurants. Factories were bulldozed and replaced with medium rise apartments.
The cops are and were friendly & helpful.


Worse:
Tornados have moved northward and are now seen as threatening.
AC is required in the summer.
Watering lawns in "droughts" is sometimes needed.
Fewer songbirds.
Fewer butterflies, insects.

In all this region has so far weathered global warming well.
I'd say that life here presently is better than it was before the weather began changing.
Terry

El Cid

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2019, 09:17:11 AM »

Global heating: London to have climate similar to Barcelona by 2050
"London will have a similar climate in three decades’ time to that of Barcelona today, according to research – but if that seems enticing, a warning: the change could be accompanied by severe drought."
Severe drought in London?!


This research is complete BS. They took the maximum summer temperatures and compared those to current ones hence London to become Barcelona. They did not compare the entire climate, average temps. etc.

Besides, our climate models falsely model, and cannot replicate even the Green Sahara (cca 10k-k yr ago) or the Holocene Optimum (7k yr ago). So I have very serious doubts about the models which do not seem to get changes in atmospheric circulation right. Anyway, FWIW the European Environmental Agency has projections for 2071-2100. They see +3-4C for London with RCP8.5 by 2071-2100. Pretty far from Barcelona.

Anyway: more on topic

Central Europe has seen about 1,5-2 C temp rises since the 1950-80 period, with longer (cca 2 weeks) spring, a much warmer November, less extreme winter lows. Somuchso, that in my country figs are now not exotic anymore (they used to be), and people started to grow kiwi and oriental persimmon (I also have figs and they grow pretty well). There has been a slight increase in rains since the 80s. Summers have warmed the most, making the country more Mediterranean

RikW

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2019, 12:26:34 PM »
It's good to see that in the Netherland we have a relative low temperature change in those scenario's;

At least we drown in 'normal' conditions...

DrTskoul

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2019, 12:48:35 PM »
It's good to see that in the Netherland we have a relative low temperature change in those scenario's;

At least we drown in 'normal' conditions...

Better than boil.... although A/C s will become more prevalent up north that they used to be

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2019, 06:23:09 PM »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

TerryM

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #11 on: July 24, 2019, 06:54:06 PM »
Lake Erie may be next wine belt:
https://buffalonews.com/2019/07/22/could-lake-eries-grape-belt-be-the-next-napa-valley/
Just north of Lake Erie you'll find vineyards to either side of the road.
And the palm trees at Port Dover provide much needed shade.
Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #12 on: September 02, 2019, 06:41:51 PM »
Climate change might benefit Canada — but not enough to outweigh costs: expert
https://globalnews.ca/news/5836813/climate-change-cost-to-canada/
Quote
A report earlier this summer by Moody’s Analytics made headlines for its assessment of a report by the UN’s Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in which the analytics firm made the case that while many countries will suffer a heavy cost from climate change, Canada could see benefits.

Those would most likely come in the form of more arable land, a longer growing season, and the potential to produce more crops.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

sidd

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2019, 08:09:27 AM »
Mmmm ... one effect i did not expect, on the upside: coastal dunes actually greening and stabilizing

doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103026

"Initial large areas of bare mobile sand within the main dune field are broken into isolated basins separated by vegetation. These basins then gradually reduce in size as vegetation colonises the margins, creating a predominantly stable dune landscape. "

"Worldwide, continental wind speeds have decreased by 5–15% during the last 30 years, and are generally expected to continue decreasing during the 21st-century "

"Our analysis points to a clear ‘greening’ of coastal dunes over the past three decades"

"The synchronous period of global wind stilling reduces fluxes of wind-blown sand and creates the stability necessary to enable vegetation to colonise bare dune sand. "

"This ironically may have implications for how coastal erosion scenarios play out in the future with sediments not being allowed to migrate inland and some dune fringed coasts may accumulate more sand at their seaward edge than normal, effectively lessening their erosional potential as a result of buffering up dune erosion response to storms."

sidd

liefde

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #14 on: September 05, 2019, 03:44:18 PM »
It's good to see that in the Netherlands we have a relative low temperature change in those scenario's;
Not as far as I can see. Olive trees and Figs are fairly common here now as well. We can grow pretty much every Mediterranean plant reasonably successful on our South facing gardens.
We have insects from the Mediterranean now, mosquitos and moths from sub-tropical areas are surviving our winters. Ticks no longer die in the winter. And triple the amount of heatwaves each Summer compared to the 1970s even. And I doubt we'll ever see an elfstedentocht again. Ice is too thin.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #15 on: September 05, 2019, 04:01:57 PM »
Lake Erie may be next wine belt:
https://buffalonews.com/2019/07/22/could-lake-eries-grape-belt-be-the-next-napa-valley/

Possibly.  The authors compare the Lake Erie wine growing region with Bordeaux and Tuscany, which are at higher latitudes.  Trends show that the growing season has already grown and according to the authors, “This warming trend could allow for the introduction of alternative grape varieties, drastically improving the limited availability of cool-climate ... cultivars,” the study concluded. “Varieties such as Merlot, Cabernet Sauvignon and Syrah, which require warmer climates, would likely thrive.” 

TerryM

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #16 on: September 06, 2019, 11:08:18 PM »
^^
Vineyards have reached the southern city limits of Hamilton within the last 10 years, and that's a ways north of Lake Erie.
I wouldn't be surprised if the newer vineyards are even further north.


The palm trees at Port Dover and Turkey Point are a nice addition to the Beach Resorts, and I saw an ornamental banana tree in Vancouver yard last time I was out west.


The crops seem to be rushing north faster than many urbanites are aware.
Terry