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nanning

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #50 on: January 13, 2020, 05:19:32 PM »
El Cid, the world has changed 'a bit' since WW2. Our current culture is unrecognizable to people from those times.
Have you taken that into account?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #51 on: January 13, 2020, 06:32:13 PM »
El Cid:
I'm not so sure Western Civilization, especially the US, has that kind of culture.

gerontocrat

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #52 on: January 18, 2020, 01:18:05 PM »
As to refugees To remote for us to get tens of thousands  boat people.
The rich? They bring money so good for our economy at present.
 Some  seem to think coming here will be viable bolt hole if civilization collapses.
If your money is no good and you don't bring the skill sets needed you will not be  safer here.
The rich? They bring money so good for our economy at present ???

Perhaps not so much money.
Perhaps some really weird people with really weird ideas.

The attached link is a really long read - but if I was a Kiwi I would be a bit alarmed. I am sending it to a brother (naturalised Kiwi) in Motueka.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/feb/15/why-silicon-valley-billionaires-are-prepping-for-the-apocalypse-in-new-zealand
Quote
Why Silicon Valley billionaires are prepping for the apocalypse in New Zealand

How an extreme libertarian tract predicting the collapse of liberal democracies – written by Jacob Rees-Mogg’s father – inspired the likes of Peter Thiel to buy up property across the Pacific.
The book’s 400-odd pages of near-hysterical orotundity can roughly be broken down into the following sequence of propositions:

1) The democratic nation-state basically operates like a criminal cartel, forcing honest citizens to surrender large portions of their wealth to pay for stuff like roads and hospitals and schools.

2) The rise of the internet, and the advent of cryptocurrencies, will make it impossible for governments to intervene in private transactions and to tax incomes, thereby liberating individuals from the political protection racket of democracy.

3) The state will consequently become obsolete as a political entity.

4) Out of this wreckage will emerge a new global dispensation, in which a “cognitive elite” will rise to power and influence, as a class of sovereign individuals “commanding vastly greater resources” who will no longer be subject to the power of nation-states and will redesign governments to suit their ends.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #53 on: January 18, 2020, 03:02:20 PM »
Oh dear.

gerontocrat

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #54 on: January 18, 2020, 03:27:07 PM »
Oh dear.
That really really weird weirdo Peter Thiel was of course with Musk in the Paypal Mafia.
Betcha they were fans of  Ayn Rand - "Atlas Shruged" & all that. Lots of Silicon Valley big chiefs were (are?) entranced by her "philosophy" (Alan Greenspan literally sat at her feet in the '50's).

Doesn't it make you feel all cosy and warm?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

nanning

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #55 on: January 18, 2020, 05:01:21 PM »
I think I see that already happening. Many governments are no more than lackeys of those people behind the scenes. e.g. Morrison.
Is this related? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Theory_of_the_Leisure_Class

Quote from: gerontocrat
I am sending it to a brother
There are more of you? OMG  ;D
I wish I had smart siblings.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #56 on: January 18, 2020, 06:07:41 PM »
... the immediate solution is to reduce childbirth to one per woman...

A more effective control of population would be to reduce to one child per man.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #57 on: January 18, 2020, 06:09:08 PM »
... the immediate solution is to reduce childbirth to one per woman...

A more effective control of population would be to reduce to one child per man.
Why would that be any different?

KiwiGriff

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #58 on: January 18, 2020, 08:38:10 PM »
Quote
A more effective control of population would be to reduce to one child per man.
Very good Sig.
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

gerontocrat

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #59 on: January 18, 2020, 09:22:27 PM »
... the immediate solution is to reduce childbirth to one per woman...
A more effective control of population would be to reduce to one child per man.
Experience shows that the education of young women and affordable access to contraception is the most effective way of reducing the birthrate. 

Surely the idea is to give women control over how many children they have (if any), and who will be the father. This certainly seems to be the case in Japan and China, where despite exhortations by Governments composed mostly of grumpy old men like me, birthrates are less than that required to maintain the population.

The same applies in much of Europe, and to some extent in the US despite campaigns and laws mainly instigated by Christian Evangelicals, who seem to have little use for the New Testament (except maybe the letters of Paul - the original Male Chauvinist Pig who reduced so many women to status of Chattels and a life of servitude and slavery for nearly 2 thousand years).

see post re China @
 https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,956.msg245059.html#msg245059
« Last Edit: January 20, 2020, 12:38:37 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

nanning

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #60 on: January 19, 2020, 05:01:03 AM »
In these unprecendented times where the future of children is getting likely horrible, it could be that conscious knowledgable women don't want to have children because of empathy and a feeling of responsibility for the possibly horrible future for them.
As the AGW/Biosphere-collapse catastrophy unfolds and acceleratingly worsens, more and more might make that decision until at some point maybe they don't even want to have children because of their own vulnerability in the care for a newborn in a very difficult environment.
It depends on how fast the disasters will hit their country and themselves personally, and how the media change the message I think.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #61 on: January 19, 2020, 09:46:57 PM »
... the immediate solution is to reduce childbirth to one per woman...

A more effective control of population would be to reduce to one child per man.
Why would that be any different?

A woman can give birth no more often than about every 9 months, whereas a man can impregnate multiple women in that time.

Too many “population control” discussions involve ‘control’ or ‘restrictions’ of women, but what is missing is the matching concept of controlling men....
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #62 on: January 20, 2020, 03:25:40 AM »
Ideally the decision about parenting a child should be mutual between both parents.
Historically, and probably due to sexual dimorphism, males have claimed the upper hand.


Empowering women (or alternatively dis-empowering men) swings the pendulum toward a more neutral position. Education plays an important role in equalizing this balance of power.


Forcing women (or couples) to raise an unwanted child is barbaric. Forcing a woman to complete her pregnancy against her will is an unthinkable demonstration of domination.


Terry

nanning

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #63 on: January 20, 2020, 06:35:03 AM »
Thanks Sigmetnow and Terry for that view.

To add:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Male_infertility_crisis:

Quote
The male infertility crisis is a term used by the popular media to describe the rapid decrease in sperm quality, and consequential problems with male infertility, seen over the 40 year period starting in the late 1970s.[1] Over that time period, the number of viable sperm in men in Australia, Europe, New Zealand and North America has roughly halved, falling at a rate of 1.4% per year.[2][3] This reduction has not been seen in other parts of the world.[4] A number of hypotheses have been put forward for the causes of the decline, including lifestyle factors and the presence of hormone-disrupting chemicals in the environment.[4]
(emphases by me)
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #64 on: May 16, 2020, 10:17:42 PM »
Wild white storks born in UK for first time in centuries
... more livable for storks, anyway ...
Quote
White storks have hatched in the UK for the first time in about 600 years.

The chicks were born from one of three nests in the Knepp Estate in West Sussex on Friday. Onlookers watched as the parents regurgitated food to feed the chicks in their nest on an oak tree.

The same pair also tried to breed last year at the Knepp Estate - but without success.

There is evidence that storks have been breeding in the UK for around 360,000 years.
...
... except not for the past 600 years.

I suppose we should say, "Welcome home!"
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #65 on: October 19, 2020, 01:26:21 PM »
Three Places That Will Actually Benefit From Climate Change
https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2020/10/19/three_places_that_will_actually_benefit_from_climate_change.html
The three places are:
1. Northern Minnesota and Michigan's Upper Peninsula.
2. The Nordic Region.
3. Canada.

El Cid

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #66 on: October 19, 2020, 01:41:36 PM »
Three Places That Will Actually Benefit From Climate Change
https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2020/10/19/three_places_that_will_actually_benefit_from_climate_change.html
The three places are:
1. Northern Minnesota and Michigan's Upper Peninsula.
2. The Nordic Region.
3. Canada.

I would say most places north of 40N

gerontocrat

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #67 on: October 19, 2020, 07:13:01 PM »
Three Places That Will Actually Benefit From Climate Change
https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2020/10/19/three_places_that_will_actually_benefit_from_climate_change.html
The three places are:
1. Northern Minnesota and Michigan's Upper Peninsula.
2. The Nordic Region.
3. Canada.
I would say most places north of 40N
I guess "Places becoming more livable"  means for humans and somespecies that can move north.

For many species with specialised adaptations for cold climates it's going to be "game over".

And maybe large areas of low-lying tundra are going to become WaterWorld.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

harpy

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #68 on: October 19, 2020, 07:53:18 PM »
In these unprecendented times where the future of children is getting likely horrible, it could be that conscious knowledgable women don't want to have children because of empathy and a feeling of responsibility for the possibly horrible future for them.
As the AGW/Biosphere-collapse catastrophy unfolds and acceleratingly worsens, more and more might make that decision until at some point maybe they don't even want to have children because of their own vulnerability in the care for a newborn in a very difficult environment.
It depends on how fast the disasters will hit their country and themselves personally, and how the media change the message I think.

The vast majority of people who have children have virtually no planning or logic behind their decision, its a purely emotional impulse. 


wili

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #69 on: October 19, 2020, 09:14:57 PM »
Yes, 'more livable' is of course rather subjective.

I live in Minnesota, and the people in the northern part of the state, that I've heard about, are worried because winters are getting warmer, so the many locations for skiing and similar outdoor winter sports are no longer reliably snowy. This has made it hard for many tourist businesses to make it.

Moose (another tourist draw) are disappearing, forests are dying of beetles and of lack of the cold necessary for their reproductive cycle, replacement with species from further south is a slow process...
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

nanning

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #70 on: October 20, 2020, 07:23:35 AM »
I agree harpy, but I think it is not a "purely emotional impulse".
It is no more than what you're 'supposed' to do; what is 'normal'.
If you don't have children you are the odd one out.
Because it is step 4 of the short standard life-menu of civilisation culture, after step 1 "formal education and forced change into a grown-up"; step 2 "find job"; step 3 "find partner and engage in long-term bond".
Step 5 "material accumulation and career-ladder progress" (which has nothing to do with a real life); step 6 "Pension".
Most of these things are choices but not seen as such.

Apologies for off-topic.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

El Cid

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #71 on: October 20, 2020, 07:48:19 AM »
Actually, for some of us, finding a loving wife (husband), who is your best friend and real mate is not a social obligation but a joyful experience every day. Same stands for children. In a loving family, every day is Christmas. Truly.

kassy

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #72 on: October 20, 2020, 01:54:50 PM »
The discussion is indeed off topic so should be continued in either the Population thread or OTOT.

As to places becoming more liveable... these are climate winners or places that are sheltered from the worst effects climate wise but they still depend on the rest of the world for a lot of food services.

Much of the northern lands are not good for farming since they have no proper soils.

Another problem is that when they become desirable places to be a lot of people want to move there so at least it will drive up the prices locally. Think of this as global gentrification.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

blu_ice

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #73 on: October 20, 2020, 03:15:04 PM »
Climate change is a lose-lose game. Some are just losing more than the others. High latitudes are supposed to be the relative winners.  Unfortunately there may be unforeseen risks due to higher rate of temperature change.

Rapid change means high fluctuation which by itself makes agriculture difficult, even when average conditions would become more favorable.

Then there are the truly black swans. We cannot rule out major geoengineering experiments taking place later this century. In fact they are quite likely, given our inadequate measures to combat climate change. A sudden cooling caused by sunlight blocking particles would be catastrophic at high latitudes.

The Walrus

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #74 on: October 20, 2020, 03:31:31 PM »
Climate change is a lose-lose game. Some are just losing more than the others. High latitudes are supposed to be the relative winners.  Unfortunately there may be unforeseen risks due to higher rate of temperature change.

Rapid change means high fluctuation which by itself makes agriculture difficult, even when average conditions would become more favorable.

Then there are the truly black swans. We cannot rule out major geoengineering experiments taking place later this century. In fact they are quite likely, given our inadequate measures to combat climate change. A sudden cooling caused by sunlight blocking particles would be catastrophic at high latitudes.

There may be unforeseen risks and unforeseen benefits.  One must look at the big picture when assessing consequences.

El Cid

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #75 on: October 20, 2020, 04:03:02 PM »
Ok, so NH northerly latitudes will not be winners, because we MIGHT geoengineer them back to the ice age after people have moved there.

makes sense :) :) :)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #76 on: October 20, 2020, 04:18:05 PM »
Then future scientists will be able to study our mummified remains, as we study Ötzi today.   ::)   What a wonderful opportunity for those scientists!  ;D
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

oren

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #77 on: October 21, 2020, 04:07:19 AM »
While high northerly latitudes could indeed be relative winners, permafrost degradation could be one counter-feedback, and increased forest fires (due to shift in the ecological regions of existing tree species) could be another.

blu_ice

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #78 on: October 21, 2020, 01:50:27 PM »
Ok, so NH northerly latitudes will not be winners, because we MIGHT geoengineer them back to the ice age after people have moved there.

makes sense :) :) :)
Yes, that's exactly what I said...  ::)

High latitudes will be relative winners, unless rapid rate of change offsets the benefits of warming climate.  But a lot depends how our fellow humans down south behave when their countries turn into unlivable hellscapes (<-- figure of speech, pls don't take this literally). I doubt economic chaos, famine, disease and war stays within the hottest areas of our planet.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #79 on: October 21, 2020, 02:58:14 PM »
While high northerly latitudes could indeed be relative winners, permafrost degradation could be one counter-feedback, and increased forest fires (due to shift in the ecological regions of existing tree species) could be another.

I would argue that there will be few, if any, large regions of the planet that benefit from what is happening. What we will have instead are areas that are smaller losers than other areas. This distinction matters as we cannot expect regions to benefit and thus increase their carrying capacity for humans.

Over the remainder of this century, unchecked AGW which is our current state and track will inevitably result in the deaths of hundreds of millions. The next century will be far worse.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 03:34:22 PM by Shared Humanity »

El Cid

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #80 on: October 21, 2020, 03:52:05 PM »
I believe that Co2 emissions will be cut drastically by 2050 (50-80% from today's levels) and eliminated by 2100. No Arctic sea ice from June till December (like the Hudson).
Most anything beyond 40 N will be warmer, wetter and more productive agriculturally. I think that we shall once again have a Green Sahara with huge new areas to grow food. I also believe that current puny 1-1,5 t/ha average grain yields in Africa will reach East Asian averages of cca 4-5 t/ha. 
Stockholm will be the new Paris, London will be the new Rome. Pensioners will flock to Ireland to buy holiday homes on the island with the most pleasant climate. Russia and Canada will be the breadbaskets of the world.

I am dead serious.

greylib

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #81 on: October 21, 2020, 04:49:33 PM »
I am dead serious.
And you're mostly dead wrong, except for this bit:
Quote
I believe that Co2 emissions will be cut drastically by 2050 (50-80% from today's levels) and eliminated by 2100. No Arctic sea ice from June till December (like the Hudson).
You say:
Quote
Most anything beyond 40 N will be warmer, wetter and more productive agriculturally. I think that we shall once again have a Green Sahara with huge new areas to grow food. I also believe that current puny 1-1,5 t/ha average grain yields in Africa will reach East Asian averages of cca 4-5 t/ha. 
Stockholm will be the new Paris, London will be the new Rome. Pensioners will flock to Ireland to buy holiday homes on the island with the most pleasant climate. Russia and Canada will be the breadbaskets of the world.
Warmer, yes. Wetter, yes. More productive? Not without a heck of a lot of work to turn ex-tundra into agricultural land. The climate will still be changing - how do you make the decision on what crops are likely to grow?

The Sahara isn't going to go green unless you can convince the African peasantry that goats are a threat, not a status symbol.

I like Stockholm, but comparing it to Paris is silly. Paris didn't get its reputation, and its tourists, from its mild climate. London had its turn at being the "new Rome" 150 years ago. Time for somewhere else to try.

Ireland? Pleasant climate for oldies? It's already getting too much rain for mass tourism, with, as you say, more to come at the turn of the century. Florida it isn't!

Russia and Canada the breadbaskets of the world? They're growing quite a lot of cereal crops now. Will they be growing more? Or will the erratic climate destabilise things?
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The Walrus

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #82 on: October 21, 2020, 05:01:30 PM »
I believe that Co2 emissions will be cut drastically by 2050 (50-80% from today's levels) and eliminated by 2100. No Arctic sea ice from June till December (like the Hudson).
Most anything beyond 40 N will be warmer, wetter and more productive agriculturally. I think that we shall once again have a Green Sahara with huge new areas to grow food. I also believe that current puny 1-1,5 t/ha average grain yields in Africa will reach East Asian averages of cca 4-5 t/ha. 
Stockholm will be the new Paris, London will be the new Rome. Pensioners will flock to Ireland to buy holiday homes on the island with the most pleasant climate. Russia and Canada will be the breadbaskets of the world.

I am dead serious.

I would agree.  During previous warmer (and wetter) times, the Sahara and higher latitudes were greener.  I see no reason that this time should be any different.

Général de GuerreLasse

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #83 on: October 21, 2020, 07:07:28 PM »
I am dead serious.
And you're mostly dead wrong, except for this bit:
Quote
I believe that Co2 emissions will be cut drastically by 2050 (50-80% from today's levels) and eliminated by 2100. No Arctic sea ice from June till December (like the Hudson).
You say:
Quote
Most anything beyond 40 N will be warmer, wetter and more productive agriculturally. I think that we shall once again have a Green Sahara with huge new areas to grow food. I also believe that current puny 1-1,5 t/ha average grain yields in Africa will reach East Asian averages of cca 4-5 t/ha. 



The Sahara isn't going to go green unless you can convince the African peasantry that goats are a threat, not a status symbol.


Even if it rains enough on the Sahara one day, it will take years of hard work to replenish the soil to make it fertile again and grow good vegetables. Plenty of time to starve to death. It is also likely that future temperatures will make it even more difficult to grow useful things. I'm not even talking about possible grasshopper problems and other nasty surprises.
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El Cid

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #84 on: October 21, 2020, 07:48:50 PM »
I'm not even talking about possible grasshopper problems and other nasty surprises.

Yes, I am sure Sahara dwellers will be very sad to see grasshoppers after looking at the sand for thousands of years

kassy

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #85 on: October 21, 2020, 09:29:37 PM »
The Sahara has no real soil. Yes it was green before but that took time, probably quite some time compared too human generations. It is not going to magically appear.

Same for much of the rest of the northern soils and we don´t really know what will happen because we are pushing the system harder then it has been pushed before.

Cutting drastically by 2050 sounds cool but where does that lead us when current values will probably knock out Artic ice this decade, Siberia is already a net carbon contributor and Antarctica is falling apart (only the edges but that is where it starts)?
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #86 on: October 21, 2020, 11:07:39 PM »
I believe that Co2 emissions will be cut drastically by 2050 (50-80% from today's levels) and eliminated by 2100.

I believe in unicorns and sparkle ponies.

In my opinion, there is actually no evidence of this being likely to occur.

gerontocrat

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #87 on: October 21, 2020, 11:09:51 PM »
While high northerly latitudes could indeed be relative winners, permafrost degradation could be one counter-feedback,
Methinks it might be advisable change "could be" to "will be"

It is not just a case of getting warmer and the land drying out and bingo, you've got cropland.

Quote
Permafrost ranges in thickness from 1500 m in Siberia and 740 m in Alaska to just a few meters in its lower latitude extremes. Typically thicknesses range from 100 to 800 m in continuous permafrost, 25 to 100 m in discontinuous permafrost, and 10 to 50 m in sporadic permafrost.
https://www.britannica.com/science/permafrost/Ice-content
Quote
World estimates of the amount of ice in permafrost vary from 200,000 to 500,000 cubic kilometres (49,000 to 122,000 cubic miles), or less than 1 percent of the total volume of the Earth. It has been estimated that 10 percent by volume of the upper 3 metres of permafrost on the northern Coastal Plain of Alaska is composed of foliated ground ice (ice wedges). Taber ice is the most extensive type of ground ice, and in places it represents 75 percent of the ground by volume. It is calculated that the pore and Taber ice content in the depth between 0.5 and 3 metres (surface to 0.5 metre is seasonally thawed) is 61 percent by volume, and between 3 and 9 metres it is 41 percent. The total amount of pingo ice is less than 0.1 percent of the permafrost. The total ice content in the permafrost of the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska is estimated to be 1,500 cubic kilometres, and below 9 metres most of that is present as pore ice.

Thermokarst formations
The thawing of permafrost creates thermokarst topography, an uneven surface that contains mounds, sinkholes, tunnels, caverns, and steep-walled ravines caused by melting of ground ice. The hummocky ground surface resembles karst topography in limestone areas. Thawing may result from artificial or natural removal of vegetation or from a warming climate.

Thawed depressions filled with water (thaw lakes, thermokarst lakes, cave-in lakes) are widespread in permafrost areas, especially in those underlain with perennially frozen silt. They may occur on hillsides or even on hilltops and are good indicators of ice-rich permafrost. Locally, deep thermokarst pits 6 metres deep and 9 metres across may form as ground ice melts. These openings may exist as undetected caverns for many years before the roof collapses. Such collapses in agricultural or construction areas are real dangers. Thermokarst mounds are polygonal or circular hummocks 3 to 15 metres in diameter and 0.3 to 2.5 metres high that are formed as a polygonal network of ice melts and leaves the inner-ice areas as mounds.

Pingos
The most spectacular landforms associated with permafrost are pingos, small ice-cored circular or elliptical hills of frozen sediments or even bedrock, 3 to more than 60 metres high and 15 to 450 metres in diameter. Pingos are widespread in the continuous permafrost zone and are quite conspicuous because they rise above the tundra. They are much less conspicuous in the forested area of the discontinuous permafrost zone. They are generally cracked on top with summit craters formed by melting ice. There are two types of pingos, based on origin. The closed-system type forms in level areas when unfrozen groundwater in a thawed zone becomes confined on all sides by permafrost, freezes, and heaves the frozen overburden to form a mound. This type is larger and occurs mainly in tundra areas of continuous permafrost. The open-system type is generally smaller and forms on slopes when water beneath or within the permafrost penetrates the permafrost under hydrostatic pressure. A hydrolaccolith (water mound) forms and freezes, heaving the overlying frozen and unfrozen ground to produce a mound.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #88 on: October 21, 2020, 11:17:36 PM »
Thawing permafrost will never be suitable for agriculture.

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #89 on: October 21, 2020, 11:37:48 PM »
I'm not even talking about possible grasshopper problems and other nasty surprises.

Yes, I am sure Sahara dwellers will be very sad to see grasshoppers after looking at the sand for thousands of years

I'm sure you can do better.
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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #90 on: October 22, 2020, 12:26:18 AM »
Farmers across Africa have been regreening the Sahel and reversing desertification for decades.  Crop yields are much higher now than they were in the '80s. 

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/great-green-wall-stop-desertification-not-so-much-180960171/

Quote
The Age of Humans
The “Great Green Wall” Didn’t Stop Desertification, but it Evolved Into Something That Might
The multibillion-dollar effort to plant a 4,000-mile-long wall of trees hit some snags along the way, but there’s still hope

By Jim Morrison
smithsonianmag.com
August 23, 2016

It was a simple plan to combat a complex problem. The plan: plant a Great Green Wall of trees 10 miles wide and 4,350 miles long, bisecting a dozen countries from Senegal in the west to Djibouti in the east. The problem: the creeping desertification across Africa.

Quote
Planting trees across the Sahel, the arid savanna on the south border of the Sahara Desert, had no chance to succeed. There was little funding. There was no science suggesting it would work. Moreover, the desert was not actually moving south; instead, overuse was denuding the land. Large chunks of the proposed "wall" were uninhabited, meaning no one would be there to care for the saplings.

Quote
Reij, Garrity and other scientists working on the ground knew what Wade and other political leaders did not: that farmers in Niger and Burkina Faso, in particular, had discovered a cheap, effective way to regreen the Sahel. They did so by using simple water harvesting techniques and protecting trees that emerged naturally on their farms.

Slowly, the idea of a Great Green Wall has changed into a program centered around indigenous land use techniques, not planting a forest on the edge of a desert. The African Union and the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization now refer to it as "Africa’s flagship initiative to combat land degradation, desertification and drought." Incredibly, the Great Green Wall—or some form of it—appears to be working.

"We moved the vision of the Great Green Wall from one that was impractical to one that was practical," says Mohamed Bakarr, the lead environmental specialist for Global Environment Facility, the organization that examines the environmental benefit of World Bank projects. "It is not necessarily a physical wall, but rather a mosaic of land use practices that ultimately will meet the expectations of a wall. It has been transformed into a metaphorical thing."

Quote
Reij, now based in Amsterdam, began working in the Sahel when the soil literally was blowing away during dust storms. After years away, Reij returned to Niger and Burkina Faso in the summer of 2004. He was stunned by what he saw, green where there had been nothing but tan, denuded land. He quickly secured funding for the first of several studies looking at farming in villages throughout Burkina Faso and Niger.

Quote
Over two years traveling through Burkina Faso and Niger, they uncovered a remarkable metamorphosis. Hundreds of thousands of farmers had embraced ingenious modifications of traditional agriculture practices, transforming large swaths into productive land, improving food and fuel production for about 3 million people.

Quote
Garrity recalls walking through farms in Niger, fields of grains like millet and sorghum stretching to the sun planted around trees, anywhere from a handful to 80 per acre. “In most cases, the trees are in random locations because they sprouted and the farmer protected them and let them grow,” he says. The trees can be cut for fuel, freeing women who once spent two and a half hours a day collecting wood to do other tasks. They can be pruned for livestock fodder. Their leaves and fruit are nutritious.

Quote
From 2004 on, they published a series of research papers and reports sounding the call about the transformation. Reij says that by 2011, there were more than 12 million acres restored in Niger alone. More than 1.2 million were restored in Mali, but no one knew until 2010 because no one looked.

The key, Reij says, is scaling up the effort in the drylands countries by building up grassroots efforts, addressing the legal issues (like tree ownership), and creating markets for the products of agroforestry. "We've never seen anything near this size and impact on the environment anywhere in west Africa," Tappan adds. "In our mind Niger already has its great green wall. It's only a matter of scaling it up."

Reij says the World Bank—which has committed $1.2 billion to the effort—the Global Environment Facility and others are convinced natural regeneration is an important way forward, but the approaches are up to each country. At the African Union, Elvis Paul Tangem, coordinator of the Great Green Wall for the Sahara and Sahel Initiative, says that 21 countries now have projects within the framework of the initiative.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #91 on: October 22, 2020, 02:11:55 AM »
Thanks Ken. Love reading about things like this.

El Cid

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #92 on: October 22, 2020, 07:25:56 AM »
Agroforestry is by now a proven method for drylands. Water harvesting techniques plus planting mostly nitrogen fixing trees (eg. Inga species, see eg here: https://www.rainforestsaver.org/inga-alley-cropping-manual)
make it possible to grow crops with little water and no or little fertilizer.

Basically, the trees shade and protect the ground during the (often very long) dry season and are then pruned heavily (to chest height) before the wet season. The cuttings and leaves, rich in nitrogen, are spread in the tree alley, fertilizing it. They sow grains, which sprout and grow quickly as the rains arrive. By the time of the harvest, the canopy closes again and the cycle begins anew.

A wonderful film about how the Chinese regreened the deserted Loess Plateau, a must watch:



Also, greening the desert project in Jordan, by permaculturalist Geoff Lawton:


These two films are truly about places becoming more liveable. We can do this.

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #93 on: October 22, 2020, 10:50:13 AM »
In the analyses above I miss some important factors (some are mentioned):
    Accelerating biosphere/ecosystems collapse; mass extinctions, insectageddon, habitat loss, pollution etc.

It is not just us that wants to move to a safer livable place. All of living nature that can't move fast enough will vanish.
Microplastics will have large negative consequences on all kinds of animals, from small to large.
Continued use of biocides is not helping either.
The oceanic/inland seas' 'dead zones' are fast increasing.
Corals are dying/going extinct with ever increasing ocean temps.

What kind of 'ecosystem services' will remain functional?
It is an immense interconnected system of mutual dependencies. Ecosystem collapse will beyond some point become an avalance, one after the other will disappear once the core interconnected structure is gone (redundancy gone).

Weather extremes are increasing fast it seems, going by the past 5 years. No stable climate anymore.

Then of course there need to be houses and infrastructure and (poor) people to do the menial tasks in the favored new place.  Is the country perhaps a target for war? And the destination country needs to welcome you and not send you back/enprison you!

So I guess that it also largely depends on your 'net worth'.

I think that all the proposed 'solutions' are only for the same happy few richest percents that are mainly responsible for the destruction throughout history and today.
I search in vain for some responsibility, guilt (conscience) and empathy by rich people (let's say income >$50000).

I am poor on purpose and stand with the unheeded vulnerable majority.
Those who are about to die, greet you ;)
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"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #94 on: October 22, 2020, 11:57:43 AM »
I believe that Co2 emissions will be cut drastically by 2050 (50-80% from today's levels) and eliminated by 2100.

I believe in unicorns and sparkle ponies.

In my opinion, there is actually no evidence of this being likely to occur.

SH, El Cid talked about emissions, and I believe he is correct in that statement.
 Your graph of CO2 ppm in the atm. shows the state variable, whereas emissions are the flow.

dnem

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #95 on: October 22, 2020, 01:41:16 PM »
IMO emissions are more likely to be low in 2050 due to a collapse of the human endeavor than as a result of any sort of techno-utopian human flourishing.

By 2100 we may have figured out how to live sustainably with a smaller human population.

blu_ice

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #96 on: October 22, 2020, 01:42:21 PM »
I believe that Co2 emissions will be cut drastically by 2050 (50-80% from today's levels) and eliminated by 2100.

I believe in unicorns and sparkle ponies.

In my opinion, there is actually no evidence of this being likely to occur.

SH, El Cid talked about emissions, and I believe he is correct in that statement.
 Your graph of CO2 ppm in the atm. shows the state variable, whereas emissions are the flow.
AFAIK emissions have risen every year until 2020 and Covid. Expecting 50-80% reduction by 2050 is a rather bold statement.

80% reduction by 2050 means appr. 5% yearly decrease, or a drop in emissions similar to the pandemic every single year for the next three decades.

Good luck with that.

Général de GuerreLasse

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #97 on: October 22, 2020, 03:29:10 PM »
Farmers across Africa have been regreening the Sahel and reversing desertification for decades.  Crop yields are much higher now than they were in the '80s. 

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/great-green-wall-stop-desertification-not-so-much-180960171/

Quote
The Age of Humans
The “Great Green Wall” Didn’t Stop Desertification, but it Evolved Into Something That Might
The multibillion-dollar effort to plant a 4,000-mile-long wall of trees hit some snags along the way, but there’s still hope

By Jim Morrison
smithsonianmag.com
August 23, 2016

It was a simple plan to combat a complex problem. The plan: plant a Great Green Wall of trees 10 miles wide and 4,350 miles long, bisecting a dozen countries from Senegal in the west to Djibouti in the east. The problem: the creeping desertification across Africa.


"We moved the vision of the Great Green Wall from one that was impractical to one that was practical," says Mohamed Bakarr, the lead environmental specialist for Global Environment Facility, the organization that examines the environmental benefit of World Bank projects. "It is not necessarily a physical wall, but rather a mosaic of land use practices that ultimately will meet the expectations of a wall. It has been transformed into a metaphorical thing."

Quote
Reij, now based in Amsterdam, began working in the Sahel when the soil literally was blowing away during dust storms. After years away, Reij returned to Niger and Burkina Faso in the summer of 2004. He was stunned by what he saw, green where there had been nothing but tan, denuded land. He quickly secured funding for the first of several studies looking at farming in villages throughout Burkina Faso and Niger.


[/quote]

Thanks Ken. Love reading about things like this.

Good, my dear friends, because I consider you as my friends (as well as El Cid and many others).I always enjoy reading your posts on the evolution of the ice pack and global warming. But here, as with the ice pack, you should look at the real world numbers and not the dubious media-interest verbiage.
So here are some links to serious sites, unfortunately in French, but of which I propose you some translations. We will study here the case of Niger.

Conclusion: Productive Resources
limited and high vulnerability
Two thirds of Niger's surface area is
and only 11% of the land is desert and only 11% of the
suitable for agriculture. The soils are in
the poor as a whole and deteriorate over the course of the
time, due to water and wind erosion,
human and animal pressure, the
rapid progression of desertification (75% of the
territory) and climatic aridity (89% of the
territory).
The irrigable potential is largely under
exploited. Only one third of irrigable land is
annually developed. Agriculture
Nigerien is essentially based on the
rainfed production. However, the yields are
and declining over the long term, for
the main crops.
The increase in production comes from
mainly an increase in surface areas
cultivated. This is no longer done as in the past
on agricultural reserves, but on the land
sylvo-pastoral and forestry. The strong
population growth and weakness
of modernization investments in the
agricultural sector are contributing to the acceleration of
this phenomenon.
The extension of cultivated areas and
the increase in production did not result in
a reversal of the imbalance trend
and food dependency. The
agricultural production remains structurally
lower than the national demand. The deficit is
filled by imports which represented
up to 40% of national needs. The aid
only meets 1% of the needs
cereal crops (3% in 2004/05).
https://www.oecd.org/fr/pays/niger/41642919.pdf

Niger is the poorest state in Africa, located at the 188th
rank of
the HDI 20143
The company is in last position worldwide. The primary sector dominates
the country's economy, which depends to a very large extent on foreign aid to the
development. A Niger that was self-sufficient in foodstuffs and even
exporter of cereals until the end of the sixties, became strongly in deficit.
The country has nearly 20 million inhabitants in 2016, while it had 10 million
around the year 2000, and 3 million at independence (1960). With a fertility rate
of 7.6 children per woman4 - a world record - and despite a particularly high rate of
high under-five mortality (127 per 1,000 in 2015);5
) the population
is still expected to grow considerably to reach 72 million in 20506.
.
Moreover, the share of the population under 15 years of age already exceeds 50% of the population.
population7 since 2015 and this rate is therefore expected to increase further with the growth in
global demographics.
One of the major challenges for the government of Niger and its technical and
financial resources for the years to come will therefore be to be able to satisfy this new demand.
food. This is all the more so as this demand is currently already difficult to meet.
satisfied8
Approximately 6 out of 10 households can cover their food needs for only 3 months.
. Food and nutritional security (FNS) thus remains a challenge today.
important in Niger, in its four dimensions: availability, access, use and stability.

The geographical location of Nigerle is subject to severe climatic conditions that
strongly constrain its agricultural production and its ability to meet the needs of its customers.
of its population. Niger is indeed in one of the hottest regions in the world.
of the globe. In the North, 3/5ths of the country are in the Saharan zone. In terms of
hydrographic, Niger has only one permanent river: the Niger River. If
Niger's groundwater resources are quite significant10 , these are
difficult to use, thus limiting the possibility of irrigation.
Thus, not only is the range of crops available for cultivation relatively limited, but also the
regular droughts also have a direct impact on the harvesting of products.
keys. In recent years, the country has indeed experienced a food crisis (cereal deficit).
every two or three years11 , thus threatening the food security of the populations.
The silting up of river beds, erosion, invasions by predators, locusts, etc. are all factors that threaten the food security of populations.
and epidemics such as meningitis, measles or cholera, also affect safety
the country's food supply.
Beyond that, global warming at the global level is accentuating this situation.
already critical, by intensifying drought episodes (rainfall deficits) as well as by
flooding, thus reducing arable land.
https://www.alimenterre.org/system/files/2019-06/1090-notes-techniques-afd-niamey.pdf

In addition, nearly 82.6% of the population lives in rural areas and are mainly farmers from
rural subsistence farmers, who depend on rain-fed agriculture as their main source of food and income. The
continuation of extensive and unproductive practices in the agro-sylvo-pastoral sector, which is subject to strong constraints
of land use, leads to fragmentation of farms and increasing resource degradation
natural. Small farms - the average farm size is 5 ha for
about twelve (12) people - are increasingly dominant. They employ the strength of non
paid. These small farms are very fragmented due to population growth and inheritance law.
current.

Instability in neighboring countries (notably Mali, Libya and Nigeria), as well as internal conflicts in some of these countries.
regions of Niger, periodic droughts and floods, and the creation of the ECOWAS Free Movement Zone.
are all factors that determine the migratory movements that affect Niger. Migrants from
ECOWAS countries enjoy freedom of movement and enter Niger legally. Nigerien authorities
are powerless to send back migrants from ECOWAS countries who try to enter illegally into the country.
Libya. In the absence of opportunities for voluntary return, many remain stranded in Niger with no choice but to try to return.
to earn enough money to pay for the continuation of the trip. For more than 90% of the migrants assisted by IOM
(Nigeriens and other nationalities), the desire to improve their living conditions and to seek better
professional opportunities is the main reason for their decision to migrate. Although Niger is considered
relatively stable, population displacements and the continued growth of migrant "ghettos" in the
migration routes increase the pressure on already limited resources (food and land), and
could pose a threat to the fragile security balance in the north of the country.
According to the IOM, Niger is mainly known as a transit country for West African migration flows.
to Libya and Algeria, then for some to the Mediterranean. The country has a Net Migration Rate of -0.3 migrants/
1,000 population during the period 2015-2020. The IOM assessment shows that migrants are generally of
young men who emigrate for economic reasons from Senegal, Nigeria, Gambia, and Mali
and other West African countries.
https://www.rvo.nl/sites/default/files/2020/01/Rapport-de-la-mission-de-cadrage-RVO-sur-l-emploi-des-jeunes-dans-les-chaines-de-valeur-agricole-Niger.pdf

So, my friends, let's stop believing that everything is going to be wonderful in these countries. And yes, he already has big problems with locusts during rainy episodes.

Concerning China, one of these days I will have to explain to you that planting trees and planting a resilient forest rich in biodiversity are 2 different things.




La cravate est un accessoire permettant d'indiquer la direction du cerveau de l'homme.
Un petit croquis en dit plus qu'un grand discours, mais beaucoup moins qu'un gros chèque.
Pierre DAC

El Cid

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #98 on: October 22, 2020, 08:21:25 PM »
Mon General!

I think that the Chinese purposefully planted many types of trees that would help create a true ecosystem (and it did create that ecosystem in fact!).
Noone nowadays plants forests* with just one species exactly because we now know that it will never be an ecosystem. I know. I plant trees :)

*by forest I mean forest, not industrial plantations (short rotation coppice willow or poplar, etc) of course which are not forests

kassy

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Re: Places becoming more livable
« Reply #99 on: October 23, 2020, 06:05:30 PM »
So, my friends, let's stop believing that everything is going to be wonderful in these countries.
No one said that. It was just an example of one nice project.

Aside. A while ago many billions were pledged (for Paris i guess) by the rich countries to help the poorer ones with the climate transition and they ended up with 20 or 30 billion out of 140.

So much could be done with that also at very basic levels...
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.