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Author Topic: Freeform season chatter and light commentary  (Read 130326 times)

nanning

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #650 on: August 22, 2020, 04:56:44 PM »
Nice one glennbuck

But the song title is an example of shifting baseline sydrome.

Throughout civilisations' history, many people, tribes, cultures (earlier 'we's) have seen their world end by being conquered by civilisation. The first people, all people before colonialism, all of them were 'we' at some point. And they have seen their world end.

Having ended a multitude of other worlds, it is finally the world of civilisation itself that's ending.
The total destruction will finally stop, when almost nothing's left.


edit: and, in my view, a not-so-nice (understatement) future for all children to grow old in and have a chance of a safe life without deprivation and violence. I feel strongly for them and am extremely tolerant of their behaviour.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2020, 06:06:53 PM by nanning »
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

glennbuck

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #651 on: August 23, 2020, 10:10:33 AM »
 ;D

nanning

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #652 on: August 23, 2020, 10:38:53 AM »
:)
That's a nice, shiny and effective mask. Too bad it makes breathing so hard.
Is the helmet against the rain? Must be difficult to luke with.

We could do with a lot less dark forcings btw; 3W/m² is much too much.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

igs

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #653 on: August 23, 2020, 06:27:41 PM »
;D


Just remember what's under the hood and we can see that it does not matter [JK]

pearscot

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #654 on: August 24, 2020, 09:05:41 AM »
Totally agree, pretty sure this year’s theme song for the ice is

pls!

jens

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #655 on: August 24, 2020, 10:04:29 AM »
It's odd that 2012 is such an outlier that nothing has got close to it, but looks like 2020 is at least going into that empty gap between 2012 and everything else thus far.

Also already wondering about implications for 2021. 2020 is serving as a nice build-up a bit like 2011 was for 2012. Also we are now in an era, when beating 2012 could/should happen basically in any given year. So yeah there is a lot of action to look forward to.

Some people have mentioned in the other thread that the Arctic is fundamentally entering a new phase. Feels like so. I personally wouldn't expect years above 4M km2 to happen any more. It's going to be an attack to go low.

glennbuck

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #656 on: August 28, 2020, 03:57:26 PM »
Looking at the wavy jet stream, reminds me of the Scream Painting.

mhampton

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #657 on: August 28, 2020, 05:32:55 PM »
Not sure what thread to put this on, its a pretty interesting lecture on the thermodynamics of sea ice:



One of the silver linings of the pandemic is a huge surge in online scientific conferences.

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #658 on: August 28, 2020, 05:54:41 PM »
Thanks mhampton, I'll cross-post it to the new "Arctic Newsfeed" thread as well.

glennbuck

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #659 on: October 03, 2020, 12:05:09 PM »
Thanks for the SMOS post. As we suspected, all that MYI exported to the Beaufort tail has nearly melted out, and will give no resilience against next year's melting season.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2018/01/15/carbon-pollution-has-shoved-the-climate-backward-at-least-12-million-years-harvard-scientist-says/#13f60898963e

"The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero," Anderson said, with 75 to 80 percent of permanent ice having melted already in the last 35 years.

"Can we lose 75-80 percent of permanent ice and recover? The answer is no."

Pagophilus

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #660 on: October 03, 2020, 05:34:55 PM »
"The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero,"
I am baffled by the quote above, Glennbuck.  Maybe it needs more context?
« Last Edit: October 03, 2020, 05:57:42 PM by Pagophilus »
Person.  Woman.  Man.  Vote.  November.

Glen Koehler

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #661 on: October 03, 2020, 11:28:26 PM »
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2018/01/15/carbon-pollution-has-shoved-the-climate-backward-at-least-12-million-years-harvard-scientist-says/#13f60898963e

"The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero," Anderson said, with 75 to 80 percent of permanent ice having melted already in the last 35 years.

"Can we lose 75-80 percent of permanent ice and recover? The answer is no."
    +1.  Nice catch glennbuck.  Note that the title of the January 2018 article is "We Have Five Years To Save Ourselves From Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says"  2.75 down, 2.25 to go?

     Not really anything factually new, but a useful article for the collection because:
1)  Authoritative speaker (ozone, Harvard, award etc.)

2)  Impactful message (climate change is serious business, here are some reasons why (Harvard - your new $10 billion campus is in a future flood zone, bye bye south FL, etc.).

3)  Short and to the point.
             
           But what I really like about it (in a blatant case of confirmation bias) is the way that the article succinctly introduces the moral component and complicity of policy makers. 
          "I don't understand how these people sit down to dinner with their kids," Anderson said, "because they're not stupid people."  That's been my zen koan for over a decade.

          Exactly.  The struggle is not about the facts.  The deniers know the facts better than what they let on.  It is precisely because they DO understand the facts that makes them fearful about what those facts require in response.  It is that psychological and moral interface that we need to address to create the unified broad scale effort that is the only way to get through this adolescent transition for human civilization.  Unless we all pull together in the same direction, this boat isn't going to move.

          Those of us fighting for solutions need to focus less on the factual arguments and more on heartfelt listening to folks repeating distortions cynically supplied to them by people who know better but choose to ignore reality for some mistakenly perceived personal gain.  We need to get to both the heart of the issue and its brain (the scientific and technical stuff).

          Our use of fossil fuels has been like a guy in his late teens and early twenties letting it rip, and then realizing one day that his party hearty lifestyle isn't working for the long run, or even in the short run when he confronts his illusions, delusions, and fears and faces the facts.  I'll stop there, because this is the freezing season thread, not the climate change salvation pulpit.  But thanks for reminding me what really matters about watching the Arctic sea ice not so slowly die. 
« Last Edit: October 04, 2020, 12:01:16 AM by Glen Koehler »

OffTheGrid

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #662 on: October 30, 2020, 07:34:45 AM »
Haven't popped in since my last post, near a month ago, been frenetic. Especially with the Ross ice shelf and transAntarctic mountains, Ross Island, East antictic dome vulcanism.
You've snapped the effects of the
  Tsunamis and Joekulups in those buoy motions Unicorn, there were a series up to and above half a kilometer high barrelling out over where Scott and McMurdo bases used to be, around the new moon. They refocused in the Bering sea causing a surge over 1 million tons per second of the whole width of Bering strait at up to and above 3kmph, and off the Alaskan and Siberian shelves under the slush pack.
Heads up. There's a Volcanic blast just triggered another round.
Pic is one about three hours ago. Heard the boom here in Rotorua.
This one is 1 km high at time of shot. Probably 2 km ramping up the Ross Archipelago. May have lensed into pyramid field 4km from peaks to holes north of Ross Island.

OffTheGrid

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #663 on: October 30, 2020, 07:46:11 AM »
From Hycoms Ross sea charts we've got flows perhaps coming out under that shelf alone ofa ballpark estimate around 10% of the total mass of Antarctic ice sheet if they were steady for a year, averaging over the last month.
Surface water temps east of south Island NZ peaked at 22C two years ago. Now they are 5C.
It's been snowing on the hilltops around Rotorua central nth Island most nights, some days for two weeks. In early summer. Hasn't even in deep winter for years.

binntho

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #664 on: October 30, 2020, 08:26:20 AM »
This is total drivel. A series of nonsensical sentences, totally lacking any factual basis or connection to reality.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

oren

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #665 on: October 30, 2020, 09:26:36 AM »
Above posts by OTG moved here, they don't belong in the original thread, and besides my reaction was similar to binntho's, I hope OTG can explain them better.

dnem

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #666 on: October 30, 2020, 11:58:33 AM »
This is total drivel. A series of nonsensical sentences, totally lacking any factual basis or connection to reality.

Is it satire??!

binntho

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #667 on: October 30, 2020, 12:48:17 PM »
This is total drivel. A series of nonsensical sentences, totally lacking any factual basis or connection to reality.

Is it satire??!
Perhaps. I have previously suggested as much, also if you consider the tagname "OffTheGrid".
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #668 on: October 30, 2020, 04:48:46 PM »
North Island Snow: Desert Rd warning as wintry conditions hit highway
29 Sep, 2020 03:20 PM
Quote
Snow has fallen on the central plateau of the North Island as many regions across the country wake to a picture postcard but bitterly cold day.

Widespread frosts are sending temperatures plummeting below freezing in the snow-covered south and central New Zealand, while a dusting of overnight snow has sparked a warning to drivers using the Desert Rd.

This morning all MetService severe weather warnings and watches have been lifted across New Zealand, with snow and strong winds easing after two days of a wintry bomb cyclone.

But heavy snow and ice is still affecting southern highways, with a number of roads closed across Otago and Fiordland after two days of a wintry blast that saw snow fall to sea level.

The Desert Road is south of Lake Taupo.  Rotarua is north of that lake.  Snow, however, fell on both islands (from central North Island to southern South Island), and not just in the mountains. Snow is not an every year occurrence in the mountains near Rotarua (per Wikipedia) and late September snow must be very rare indeed.
So just because I don't understand some of what OTG was writing, some of it was 'true'.  And 25 years ago my home was off the grid - something to do with the lack of utility company power lines and the presence of solar panels.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

SimonF92

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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #669 on: October 30, 2020, 08:37:08 PM »
North Island Snow: Desert Rd warning as wintry conditions hit highway
29 Sep, 2020 03:20 PM
Quote
Snow has fallen on the central plateau of the North Island as many regions across the country wake to a picture postcard but bitterly cold day.

Widespread frosts are sending temperatures plummeting below freezing in the snow-covered south and central New Zealand, while a dusting of overnight snow has sparked a warning to drivers using the Desert Rd.

This morning all MetService severe weather warnings and watches have been lifted across New Zealand, with snow and strong winds easing after two days of a wintry bomb cyclone.

But heavy snow and ice is still affecting southern highways, with a number of roads closed across Otago and Fiordland after two days of a wintry blast that saw snow fall to sea level.

The Desert Road is south of Lake Taupo.  Rotarua is north of that lake.  Snow, however, fell on both islands (from central North Island to southern South Island), and not just in the mountains. Snow is not an every year occurrence in the mountains near Rotarua (per Wikipedia) and late September snow must be very rare indeed.
So just because I don't understand some of what OTG was writing, some of it was 'true'.  And 25 years ago my home was off the grid - something to do with the lack of utility company power lines and the presence of solar panels.

Id like to use solar power but im not convinced its even possible in north western Europe. If there was "cloud power" maybe
Im working on a satellite-miner to detect changes in small ice-caps/ snow-fields. Send me recommendations to optimise the program with.