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PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3100 on: March 13, 2020, 10:01:53 PM »
Also of note ELECTROVERSE are a bunch of gibbering cranks. links to such a source do not belong on this forum.
There are data sources that do not encourage visiting such sites and raising their profile on search engines.

Well I dun goofed then!

A maunder minimum would drop temperatures by about 0.3C  15 years warming at our present rate of around 0.2C a decade.

Anyway, thanks for the answer. Looks like praying to the Sun God(s) isn't a viable climate change mitigation strategy after all.
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philopek

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3101 on: March 13, 2020, 10:48:22 PM »
Also of note ELECTROVERSE are a bunch of gibbering cranks. links to such a source do not belong on this forum.

A few remarks:

First i posted without link. Even though I was reading on the solar minimum topic many pages from various sources recently, i remembered that you all are so much in love with links and decided to google for sun-spots and solar minimum.

The linked page states exactly what i true under this aspect, what else they do I DO NOT KNOW and I DO NOT CARE.

What you did is discourage me again to search for links. Without links you complain for the missing link and with link you complain about the source.

If you think that before posting a link that confirms what i already know or learned before I gonna search for detailed reviews of the page with that link, which is in vain because I would find quite all kind of opinions anyway, you can Kiss M. A.

In the future I won't translate with google's help just to hear about bad translation while the content as such and it's meaning are obvious and what counts and won't post links to hear about bad source and what belongs. I just say: "Hit & Run"

KiwiGriff

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3102 on: March 13, 2020, 11:27:33 PM »
I suggest rather than having a rant at me you carefully research your source and learn why I called them gibbering cranks from doing so.

blumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3103 on: March 14, 2020, 08:00:52 AM »
I suggest the same!
Everyone who can must self-isolate.

Pmt111500

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3104 on: March 14, 2020, 08:37:15 AM »
Oh, is this "electroverse" the supporters of the fringe and gringe hypothesis of the cosmogony that wants to overthrow and replace at least 80% of known subatomic physics to deny climate change? Electromagnetic universe? That isn't very easy to prove completely false, you'd need to ask why there's radioactivity and how the nuclear plants/bombs work to get them confused. Solar panels are also difficult for them, I guess. They much prefer to burn things to get electricity and have a very poor model for energy generation in stars.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3105 on: March 14, 2020, 09:03:53 AM »
Yip the same.
Even more to the loon side than WUWT.
A quick read of the site will find plenty of posts anyone with 1/10 a clue would know are gibbering fuckin nonsense.

I am willing to believe philopek made an honest mistake.

The fact the site is on the nutty fringe  needed to be pointed out.
There may be lurkers who get sucked into such propaganda. I feel it is our collective  duty as members of a science based forum to make it clear that some sites are not science  have no value and should not be linked to.

dnem

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3106 on: March 17, 2020, 01:56:07 PM »
I'm sure this has been answered many times here.  What is the best size/resolution for an image to be posted here so that it posts full width and does not need to be clicked on to see full width.

blumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3107 on: March 17, 2020, 02:31:14 PM »
Below 701px. :)

Test pic (698px)
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3108 on: March 17, 2020, 02:47:32 PM »
Just for fun, I took B_'s image and expanded it to 701 pixels wide (and cropped top and bottom) and posted below... and a scroll is required.
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Freegrass

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3109 on: March 25, 2020, 01:49:03 PM »
Why is there still a "black hole" in the arctic a few days past solstice?

https://go.nasa.gov/2WOIZOa
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kassy

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3110 on: March 25, 2020, 03:46:32 PM »
Because it results from satellite paths. The satellites have many jobs beyond looking at the ice so their path is optimized for the whole earth with the pole hole as a trade off.


the polar orbit that ICESat-2 will enter won’t perfectly line up over the north and south poles, it’ll be off by about two degrees. That leaves a “pole hole” of about 450 kilometers across. This orbital offset means also that as the Earth orbits on its axis, the satellite will fly over a different part of the planet with each pass. The satellite’s orbit will take it on 1,387 unique orbits before it repeats a path.

https://antarcticsun.usap.gov/science/4347/



With its sweeping 2,330-km-wide viewing swath, MODIS sees every point on our world every 1-2 days in 36 discrete spectral bands. Consequently, MODIS tracks a wider array of the earth’s vital signs than any other Terra sensor. For instance, the sensor measures the percent of the planet’s surface that is covered by clouds almost every day. This wide spatial coverage enables MODIS, together with MISR and CERES, to help scientists determine the impact of clouds and aerosols on the Earth’s energy budget.

https://terra.nasa.gov/about/terra-instruments/modis
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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3111 on: March 27, 2020, 12:06:31 AM »
Did 2012 have a strong positive AO like 2020 had this year ?
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

Freegrass

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3112 on: March 27, 2020, 02:01:07 PM »
Because it results from satellite paths. The satellites have many jobs beyond looking at the ice so their path is optimized for the whole earth with the pole hole as a trade off.


the polar orbit that ICESat-2 will enter won’t perfectly line up over the north and south poles, it’ll be off by about two degrees. That leaves a “pole hole” of about 450 kilometers across. This orbital offset means also that as the Earth orbits on its axis, the satellite will fly over a different part of the planet with each pass. The satellite’s orbit will take it on 1,387 unique orbits before it repeats a path.

https://antarcticsun.usap.gov/science/4347/



With its sweeping 2,330-km-wide viewing swath, MODIS sees every point on our world every 1-2 days in 36 discrete spectral bands. Consequently, MODIS tracks a wider array of the earth’s vital signs than any other Terra sensor. For instance, the sensor measures the percent of the planet’s surface that is covered by clouds almost every day. This wide spatial coverage enables MODIS, together with MISR and CERES, to help scientists determine the impact of clouds and aerosols on the Earth’s energy budget.

https://terra.nasa.gov/about/terra-instruments/modis
So it's because of the satellite, not the sun. Got it! Thanks Kassie!
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Jim Hunt

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3113 on: March 27, 2020, 08:56:38 PM »
So it's because of the satellite, not the sun.

Actually, since your link is to MODIS imagery it's a bit of both. Try looking again in a couple of days.
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Freegrass

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3114 on: March 28, 2020, 08:21:18 PM »
Try looking again in a couple of days.
I just went through the previous years, and tomorrow should be the last day without a "black hole", but in 2017 it was already gone. So I guess they change the path of the satellite slightly depending on the light they get? Or maybe it's because 2020 is a leap year? It shifts a little every year?

Anyway... I thought it had to do with the sun. Now I understand it's a little of both as you say Jim. Thanks!
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Rodius

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3115 on: March 29, 2020, 01:22:23 AM »
I have looked around but I cant find a specific answer to this.... so here goes.

Lately, I have seen several memes floating around saying the current sudden drop in extent is because of a reduced amount of dimming agents caused from virus induced economic collapse.

My initial thinking is this current drop in extent is unrelated to reduced dimming agents. It might have some influence, but to me, I find it more plausible that the melting is due to thin ice and region conditions... in effect, this melting event would have happen regardless of the virus event.

Also, I have a wait and see approach concerning giving a solid answer given no research could possibly have been done given it is in progress right now.... we have to wait for the answer.

Is my line of thinking correct?
Would this have happened anyway or is the reduction in dimming agents playing a significant part?

binntho

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3116 on: March 29, 2020, 04:32:46 AM »
is the reduction in dimming agents playing a significant part?

Absolutely not. What we are seeing at the moment is not even a "melting event". Freezing has stalled but the drop in extent is mostly caused by wind-driven compaction of ice in the peripheral seas on the Pacific side (almost all in the Bering sea).

Other seas are mostly unchanged or "on time" for their annual reduction in extent. There is a drop in extent in the Barents but nothing unusual, and the Okhotsk (which, given it's latitude is probably the only sea experiencing any real melt-driven drop in extent) is only a week or so ahead of other high-extension years in that sea.

Having said that, it should not be unrealistic to expect that the drop in particulate pollution over the most densely habitated areas of the world will lead to som increases in global temperatures above what would otherwise have happened. Timing is also important, the drop in pollution in China happened quite early in the year and if they truly are over the worst of the epidemic, polluton levels will soon get back to normal, and China is undoubtedly the area most affected by particulate cooling in a normal year.

But the first effects of any drop in particulate pollution are going to be local. Trying to find any causal effect between drops in particulate pollution over China and slightly faster melt in the Okhotsk (for example) would be pretty near impossible, any effect being so tiny at this time that it is easily swamped by random changes in weather.
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Rodius

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3117 on: March 29, 2020, 04:35:34 AM »
is the reduction in dimming agents playing a significant part?

Absolutely not.

Yep, that is my thinking as well and have said as much to counter the memes.... but I am being trolled now so my confidence dropped.
Good to know I got it right just from thinking it through myself.

Thanks

oren

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3118 on: March 29, 2020, 08:04:01 AM »
You got it right Rodius.

Tigertown

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3119 on: March 29, 2020, 08:21:53 AM »
Why doesn't the media understand the difference in aerosol pollution and greenhouse gases? They keep spouting how covid-9 is helping the planet. Yeah, helping it get warmer quicker.

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3120 on: March 29, 2020, 08:42:05 AM »
Did 2012 have a strong positive AO like 2020 had this year ?

Winter 2011-12 was the fourth-warmest on record and spring 2012 had ENSO-neutral conditions, which are anticipated this year. Widespread warmer-than-average temperatures were recorded in the Lower 48 that spring. March 2012 was the warmest March on record and numerous records were broken east of the Rockies.

So what does all this mean for this year?

Spring 2020 Outlook
Computer models indicate above-average temperatures are likely for most of the Lower 48 from March through May.

The positive AO and the strong polar vortex will likely persist into March, which will limit the chances for prolonged cold in the contiguous U.S.

This forecast information, combined with past very warm winters being followed by warmer-than-average springs, suggest that a warm spring is likely ahead.

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2020-02-28-warm-winter-2019-20-what-does-that-mean-spring-2020-temperature
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interstitial

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3121 on: March 29, 2020, 09:40:27 AM »
Why doesn't the media understand the difference in aerosol pollution and greenhouse gases? They keep spouting how covid-9 is helping the planet. Yeah, helping it get warmer quicker.
Because if they do that ff interests will jump on it to confuse the overall message.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3122 on: March 29, 2020, 10:27:13 AM »
As far as this melting season goes, particulate drop is a second order forcing.
Maybe third order.
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Freegrass

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3123 on: March 29, 2020, 01:06:26 PM »
As far as this melting season goes, particulate drop is a second order forcing.
Maybe third order.
Combine less particles with the effect of fewer contrails, and you've got a recipe for disaster IMHO. You can just feel the spring sun shining a lot harder right now here in Belgium. The sky is so clear. And the days are only getting longer...

The little winter snow there is in Eurasia, will melt quickly because of the hot sun. This will lower albedo, heating up Siberia, causing a lot of fires again that'll lower albedo of the ice.

I don't think anyone will know what this crisis will be doing to the planet, but one thing is for sure; We live in a brand new world right now. It's never gonna be the same again... And it's only just begun!

Stay safe!

Quote
Estimates of black carbon's globally averaged direct radiative forcing vary from the IPCC’s estimate of + 0.34 watts per square meter (W/m2) ± 0.25,[70] to a more recent estimate by V. Ramanathan and G. Carmichael of 0.9 W/m2.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_carbon#Climate_impacts
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binntho

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3124 on: March 29, 2020, 01:15:59 PM »
As far as this melting season goes, particulate drop is a second order forcing.
Maybe third order.
Combine less particles with the effect of fewer contrails, and you've got a recipe for disaster IMHO. You can just feel the spring sun shining a lot harder right now here in Belgium. The sky is so clear. And the days are only getting longer...

If the current lock-down conditions continue into summer (which seems to be the most likely scenario) then it will most definitely have an effect, and probably a significant effect. But next year we'll be back to the same old.

However, everybody is very much aware of the huge economic costs this is having. People will start to starve to death in less developed countries (such as the USA) unless the lockdown is lifted. I'll predict that within a couple of weeks, some drug coctail or another will be shown to keep covid-19 symtoms to a manageable level in thos most affected, leading to a rapid slackening of limits on movement.

Another realisation is that at least half the population show no symptoms whatsover, and another quarter hardly any at all. Given that the "official" numbers are understating the real spread by at least a factor of 10, New York probably already has between a half and one million cases, with a doubling every few days. Saturation by the end of the week?
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blumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3125 on: March 29, 2020, 01:16:23 PM »
The little winter snow there is in Eurasia, will melt quickly because of the hot sun. This will lower albedo, heating up Siberia, causing a lot of fires again that'll lower albedo of the ice.

How are the chances that due to less pollution the lightning activity goes down as well?

Fewer lightning strikes would result in fewer wildfires in Siberia, creating even less pollution/particles.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3126 on: March 29, 2020, 02:31:24 PM »
My understanding is aero are mostly clearing skies over land and not so much sea.
Am I wrong?
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binntho

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3127 on: March 29, 2020, 02:57:42 PM »
Tom, if I understand you correctly, then I would agree that the effexts of particulate pollution are mostly localized and therefore mostly over land. Contrails are presumably also mostly found over land. And to take the thought further, increased insolation over land has a smaller warming effect than over water.

Blumenkraft, I would be surprised if changes in particulate pollution over industrial area would effect lightning strikes over the Siberian tundra - if there's an effet, it's probably very small.
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Freegrass

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3128 on: March 29, 2020, 03:02:22 PM »
As far as this melting season goes, particulate drop is a second order forcing.
Maybe third order.
Combine less particles with the effect of fewer contrails, and you've got a recipe for disaster IMHO. You can just feel the spring sun shining a lot harder right now here in Belgium. The sky is so clear. And the days are only getting longer...
If the current lock-down conditions continue into summer (which seems to be the most likely scenario) then it will most definitely have an effect, and probably a significant effect. But next year we'll be back to the same old.
I don't think we'll ever get back to "the same old". Every year we lose a little more volume, and this year we'll lose a lot more... A BOE will definitely change things forever...

Let's not do the SARS2 discussion here. Many people think that this crisis will end soon. Few know that this is only just the beginning. Nations will soon start to collapse, food production will become even more jeopardized, and selfishness will reign once more as nations fend for themselves...

And that's all without a BOE!  ???
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Freegrass

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3129 on: March 29, 2020, 03:06:24 PM »
The little winter snow there is in Eurasia, will melt quickly because of the hot sun. This will lower albedo, heating up Siberia, causing a lot of fires again that'll lower albedo of the ice.

How are the chances that due to less pollution the lightning activity goes down as well?

Fewer lightning strikes would result in fewer wildfires in Siberia, creating even less pollution/particles.
Good point! But I think we'll have more than enough fires this year to lower the albedo of the ice. My point was that black carbon from fires will have a larger effect on the albedo of the ice than the black carbon from economic activities.
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blumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3130 on: March 29, 2020, 03:08:07 PM »
Blumenkraft, I would be surprised if changes in particulate pollution over industrial area would effect lightning strikes over the Siberian tundra - if there's an effet, it's probably very small.

Thanks, Binntho. Have you taken into account that particles in the atmosphere are necessary to produce clouds in the first place? Am i right in thinking that with fewer clouds there would be fewer lightning strikes?
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blumenkraft

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3131 on: March 29, 2020, 03:10:59 PM »
Good point! But I think we'll have more than enough fires this year to lower the albedo of the ice. My point was that black carbon from fires will have a larger effect on the albedo of the ice than the black carbon from economic activities.

Yeah, the lower albedo would work the other way around, i can see that.
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binntho

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3132 on: March 29, 2020, 03:14:40 PM »
I don't think we'll ever get back to "the same old". Every year we lose a little more volume, and this year we'll lose a lot more... A BOE will definitely change things forever...
So are you making an inane comment about the self-evidence of nothing ever staying the same? My "same old" was obviously referring to particulate pollution and contrails, which will be back to same levels as before when the current pandemic has run it's course.

And am I reading you correctly in saying that you are predicting "a lot more" loss of volume this year than normal?

Quote
Let's not do the SARS2 discussion here. Many people think that this crisis will end soon. Few know that this is only just the beginning. Nations will soon start to collapse, food production will become even more jeopardized, and selfishness will reign once more as nations fend for themselves...

covid-19 is relevant if people think it will have an effect on the comming melting season. But ridiculously apocalyptic doomsayings have no place in this forum.

[/quote]
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Freegrass

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Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« Reply #3133 on: March 29, 2020, 06:05:55 PM »
I don't think we'll ever get back to "the same old". Every year we lose a little more volume, and this year we'll lose a lot more... A BOE will definitely change things forever...
My "same old" was obviously referring to particulate pollution and contrails, which will be back to same levels as before when the current pandemic has run it's course.

And am I reading you correctly in saying that you are predicting "a lot more" loss of volume this year than normal?
I am. I think that an thinner ice pack will be much more mobile and thus will get broken up into a lot more little pieces that'll be much more susceptible to melt. All depends on the weather in the Arctic this year of course, but I really believe we'll be breaking records this year.

And I'm not so certain the global economy will just come back to life! It'll take many years to get back to where we were. That means less pollution, and less air traffic. And let us hope we go cleaner and greener... Maybe a BOE will wake up the world before COP 26?
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