Global sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,936,159 KM2 as at 05-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 27k, 8 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 35k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.25 million km2, 0.52 million km2 (6%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.77 million km2.

- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

On average 97.4% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 8 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.70 million km2, 1.15 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,907,163 KM2 as at 06-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 29k, 12 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 17k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.28 million km2, 0.51 million km2 (6%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.79 million km2.

- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

On average 97.7% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 7 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.70 million km2, 1.15 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,912,287 KM2 as at 07-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 5k, 31 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.27 million km2, 0.54 million km2 (6%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.81 million km2.

- Extent is at position #10 in the satellite record

On average 98.0% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 6 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.73 million km2, 1.18 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,883,884 KM2 as at 08-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 28k, 18 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 10k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.30 million km2, 0.52 million km2 (6%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.82 million km2.

- Extent is at position #10 in the satellite record

On average 98.2% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 5 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.73 million km2, 1.18 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,831,865 KM2 as at 09-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 52k, 47 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 5k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.35 million km2, 0.48 million km2 (5%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.83 million km2.

- 2021 Extent is  0.05 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  -0.18 million km2 LESS than 2020

- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

On average 98.4% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 4 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.69 million km2, 1.14 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,852,561 KM2 as at 10-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 21k, 44 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.33 million km2, 0.52 million km2 (6%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.85 million km2.

- 2021 Extent is  0.09 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  -0.12 million km2 LESS than 2020

- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

On average 98.7% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 3 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.73 million km2, 1.18 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
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With just 3 days to the average minimum date, and 3 of the last 10 years already past minimum, and today seeing an increase in extent, it is possible that the minimum has already passed.
However, I will persist in posting as if the minmum is not yet here until 3 days of extent gains have occurred.

But time to think of setting up for the upward trend in extent
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,823,572 KM2 as at 11-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 29k, 6 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.36 million km2, 0.51 million km2 (6%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.87 million km2.

- 2021 Extent is  0.08 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  -0.12 million km2 LESS than 2020

- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

On average 99.0% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 2 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.73 million km2, 1.18 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

The plume of forward projections of extent from previous years' daily change is attached.

It shows how confused the forward picture is now the minimum is nearly reached.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,794,812 KM2 as at 12-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 29k, 19 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 10k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.39 million km2, 0.50 million km2 (6%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.89 million km2.

- 2021 Extent is  0.06 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  -0.09 million km2 LESS than 2020

- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

On average 99.2% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 1 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.72 million km2, 1.17 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
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Just one more day to the 10 year average date of minimum.
Losses have continued due to above average Antarctic sea ice loss in recent days.

In just one day the position could be reversed or on the other hand losses increase.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,765,016 KM2 as at 13-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 30k, 45 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 15k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.42 million km2, 0.45 million km2 (5%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.87 million km2.

- 2021 Extent is  0.01 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  -0.07 million km2 LESS than 2020

- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

The minimum is already 1 day later than the last 10 years average, 2 days later than the last 5 years average. Table JAXA-AA1 looks more peculiar every day and is abandoned after today.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[Phil.]

" Extent loss on this day 30k, 45 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 15k,"

Shouldn't this be less "than the average gain"?

[WildFit]

" Extent loss on this day 30k, 45 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 15k,"

Shouldn't this be less "than the average gain"?

More (higher) loss should be correct and in case of doubt it can easily be translated to ones favorit way of experession should there be a choice.

[gerontocrat]

" Extent loss on this day 30k, 45 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 15k,"

Shouldn't this be less "than the average gain"?

More (higher) loss should be correct and in case of doubt it can easily be translated to ones favorit way of experession should there be a choice.

I knew this would happen -

I just hate writing "different from" which is probably the only way to neutralise the argument.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,763,154 KM2 as at 14-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 2k, 26 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.42 million km2, 0.43 million km2 (5%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.85 million km2.

- 2021 Extent is  -0.02 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  -0.06 million km2 LESS than 2020

- Extent is at position #8 in the satellite record

Avaerge date of minimum was 2 days ago

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

The plume suggests the minimum might be dealyed for a couple of days more.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

from JAXA data - a bit more

A look at 365 day trailing average shows that the increase halted at around 21 Jan but daily declines are very low. At the current rate of decline (which could easily reverse) a new record average would occur only after 10 to 15 years from now.

What happens to Antarrctic sea ice seems to be the key at the moment.

[gerontocrat]

It is 3 days after the average date of the minimum and on this day a big extent gain, so assuming the freezing season has started (?).......

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,824,066 KM2 as at 15-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 61k, 41 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 20k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 0.06 million km2, 0.11 million km2, 65.3% less than the 10 year average gain of 0.18 million km2.
- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

- 2021 Extent is  0.02 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  -0.04 million km2 LESS than 2020

On average 0.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 262 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

I attach the plume to show there is a chance minmum has not been reached

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.58 million km2, -1.82 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
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On the way we will have a false maximum in late June/ early July, followed by false minimum in early September.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

It is 4 days after the average date of the minimum and on this day a 2nd extent gain, one more day of extent gain and I will declare the minimum has passed us by .......


JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,858,457 KM2 as at 16-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 34k, 45 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 11k,

- 2021 Extent is  0.05 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.05 million km2 MORE than 2020

- Extent is at position #10 in the satellite record

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

I attach the plume to show there is a very slim chance minmum has not been reached
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge
[/quote]

[gerontocrat]

Well, the data fooled me again. 5 days after the average date of minimum, a 111k extent loss (mostly down to the massive Arctic extent loss) and we have a new Global Sea Ice Extent minimum.

It has happened before - a 144k daily extent loss on this day in 2015.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,747,457 KM2 as at 17-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 111k, 80 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 31k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.44 million km2, 0.43 million km2 (5%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.87 million km2.

- 2021 Extent is  -0.04 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.00 million km2 LESS than 2020

- Extent is at position #8 in the satellite record

On average 99.7% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and -5 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.73 million km2, 1.17 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Well, the data fooled me again. It is now 6 days after the average date of minimum, and after a 111k extent loss we get a 124k extent loss (mostly down to the massive Arctic extent losses) and we have a yet another new Global Sea Ice Extent minimum.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,623,410 KM2 as at 18-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 124k, 116 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 8k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.56 million km2, 0.31 million km2 (4%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.88 million km2.

- 2021 Extent is  -0.16 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  -0.10 million km2 LESS than 2020

- Extent is at position #7 in the satellite record

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.61 million km2, 1.06 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,573,758 KM2 as at 19-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 50k, 69 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 19k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.61 million km2, 0.25 million km2 (3%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.86 million km2.

- 2021 Extent is  -0.22 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  -0.17 million km2 LESS than 2020

- Extent is at position #7 in the satellite record

On average 99.8% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and -7 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.56 million km2, 1.01 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
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It is 7 days after the average date of minimum. If extent continues to fall another 5 days it is a record breaker.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,556,366 KM2 as at 20-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 17k, 50 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 33k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.63 million km2, 0.20 million km2 (2%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.83 million km2.

- 2021 Extent is  -0.26 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  -0.32 million km2 LESS than 2020

- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

On average 99.9% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and -8 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.55 million km2, 1.00 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
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It is 8 days after the average date of minimum. If extent continues to fall another 4 days it is a record breaker.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,547,925 KM2 as at 21-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 8k, 51 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -8.64 million km2, 0.14 million km2 (2%) less than the 10 year average loss of -8.78 million km2.

- 2021 Extent is  -0.30 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  -0.43 million km2 LESS than 2020

- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

On average 99.9% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and -9 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.54 million km2, 0.99 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
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It is 9 days after the average date of minimum. If extent continues to fall another 3 days it is a record breaker.

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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,562,176 KM2 as at 22-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 14k, 12 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26k,

- 2021 Extent is  -0.32 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  -0.49 million km2 LESS than 2020

- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

On average 100.0% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and -10 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Just maybe, at last, the minimum was reached on 21st february at 15.55 million km2, 9 days later than the average date for the last 10 years. This is exactly 1 million km2 more than the record low minimum of  Feb 2018.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,562,277 KM2 as at 23-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 0k, 21 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 0.01 million km2, 0.25 million km2, 94.7% less than the 10 year average gain of 0.27 million km2.
- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

- 2021 Extent is  -0.36 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  -0.45 million km2 LESS than 2020

On average 0.2% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 254 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.
Possibly the minimum was reached on 21st February at 15.55 million km2, 11 days later than the average date for the last 10 years. This is exactly 1 million km2 more than the record low minimum of  Feb 2018.

But- maybe not.  See last image attached
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

A large Arctic extent loss as opposed to an average gain plus a small Antarctic sea ice gain produces a new Global Sea Ice minimum, 12 days after the average date for the minimum. This is 2 days later than the latest date of minimum this century, and maybe the latest in the satellite record

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,524,190 KM2 as at 24-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 38k, 52 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 14k,
- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

- 2021 Extent is  -0.42 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  -0.42 million km2 LESS than 2020

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

The plume attached shows that even now a further reduction in sea ice extent is possible
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,571,497 KM2 as at 25-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 47k, 28 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 19k,

- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

- 2021 Extent is  -0.40 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  -0.33 million km2 LESS than 2020

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

With a 47k daily extent gain maybe the minimum has passed - and maybe not.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

The massive extent gain on this day convinces me that the minimum has passed - at last.
So......

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,749,711 KM2 as at 26-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 178k, 137 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 0.23 million km2, 0.12 million km2, 34.2% less than the 10 year average gain of 0.34 million km2.
- Extent is at position #7 in the satellite record

- 2021 Extent is  -0.25 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  -0.23 million km2 LESS than 2020

On average 3.9% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 251 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.30 million km2, -1.54 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
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On the way we will have a false maximum in late June/ early July, followed by false minimum in early September.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent Data - a bit more

I attach the plume of projections of sea ice extent from previous years' daily change  - to show why it looks like the minimum has passed..

The minimum of 16.52 million km2 was on the 24th February, 12 days later than the average date of the last 10 years, and the latest date of minimum this century (and perhaps in the satellite record). The minimum was 8th lowest in the satellite record. Table attached

click image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,934,460 KM2 as at 27-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 185k, 162 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 0.41 million km2, 0.04 million km2, 12.2% more than the 10 year average gain of 0.37 million km2.
- Extent is at position #7 in the satellite record

- 2021 Extent is  -0.08 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  -0.17 million km2 LESS than 2020

On average 4.1% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 250 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.46 million km2, -1.70 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
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On the way we will have a false maximum in late June/ early July, followed by false minimum in early September.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,140,141 KM2 as at 28-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 206k, 164 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 42k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 0.62 million km2, 0.21 million km2, 51.0% more than the 10 year average gain of 0.41 million km2.
- Extent is at position #8 in the satellite record

- 2021 Extent is  0.08 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.01 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 4.6% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 249 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.62 million km2, -1.86 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
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On the way we will have a false maximum in late June/ early July, followed by false minimum in early September.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
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A combination of high Arctic and high Antarctic sea ice extent gains produced a global sea ice extent gain of 569k in just 3 days. Despite this massive increase extent only moved from 6th to 8th lowest in those 3 days.
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

from JAXA data - a bit more

The February monthly averages graph is attached. At 16.79 million km2, the Feb'21 average is 114k above the linear trend value and 8th lowest in the satellite record.

I also attach the 365 day trailing average graph and table. The recent large extent gains have stopped the reduction in the daily value. The plume (also attached) gives not a lot of guidance on what happens next.

Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,375,537 KM2 as at 01-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 235k, 175 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 60k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 0.85 million km2, 0.38 million km2, 82.0% more than the 10 year average gain of 0.47 million km2.
- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

- 2021 Extent is  0.26 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.21 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 5.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 248 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.80 million km2, -2.04 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
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On the way we will have a false maximum in late June/ early July, followed by false minimum in early September.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
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A combination of high Arctic and high Antarctic sea ice extent gains produced a global sea ice extent gain of 804k in just 4 days. At first glance this may be a record for a 4 day increase this century.

This massive increase resulted in extent moving from 6th to 9th lowest in those 4 days.
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,533,552 KM2 as at 02-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 158k, 118 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 40k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.01 million km2, 0.50 million km2, 98.6% more than the 10 year average gain of 0.51 million km2.
- Extent is at position #12 in the satellite record, (1997 the earliest year being lower)

- 2021 Extent is  0.37 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.30 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 5.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 247 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.92 million km2, -2.16 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
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It is extreme Antarctic sea ice gain that is now the main driver of global sea ice extent gains.
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,670,453 KM2 as at 03-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 137k, 85 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 52k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.15 million km2, 0.59 million km2, 104.7% more than the 10 year average gain of 0.56 million km2.
Err:522

- 2021 Extent is  0.46 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.34 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 6.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 246 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 26.00 million km2, -2.24 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
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Antarctic and Arctic high daily sea ice gains have produced 6 consecutive days of century breaks, of which 2 were double centuries, giving a total extent gain in those 6 days of 1.1 million km2.. Extent has changed from 6th to 15th lowest in those 6 days.

From a brief scan I have been unable to see in previous years such a sustained period of high extent gains this early in the freezing season.
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,890,748 KM2 as at 04-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 220k, 176 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 44k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.37 million km2, 0.76 million km2, 126.3% more than the 10 year average gain of 0.60 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 5 years were in the last century

- 2021 Extent is  0.63 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.52 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 6.8% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 245 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 26.18 million km2, -2.42 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
On the way we will have a false maximum in late June/ early July, followed by false minimum in early September.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Extreme Antarctic and high Arctic daily sea ice gains have produced 7 consecutive days of century breaks, of which 3 were double centuries, giving a total extent gain in those 7 days of 1.32 million km2.. Extent has changed from 6th to 17th lowest in those 7 days.

This is certainly an unusual and perhaps unique event for this time of year
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Click an image to enlarge

[Freegrass]

Is this really happening? What's going on there? 

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,967,378 KM2 as at 05-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 77k, 31 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 46k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.44 million km2, 0.79 million km2, 122.0% more than the 10 year average gain of 0.65 million km2.
- Extent is at position #16 in the satellite record of which 4 years were in the last century

- 2021 Extent is  0.65 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.53 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 7.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 244 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 26.21 million km2, -2.45 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
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Extent gain reduces from extreme to merely above average, and extent position changes from 17th lowest to 16th lowest.
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Click an image to enlarge

[oren]

Is this really happening? What's going on there? 

A. Yes.
B. Very fast freezing, not sure why.
C. Wrong thread, Gero is covering it in the Antarctica section.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  18,017,131 KM2 as at 06-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 50k, 21 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 71k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.49 million km2, 0.77 million km2, 107.1% more than the 10 year average gain of 0.72 million km2.
- Extent is at position #16 in the satellite record of which 4 years were in the last century

- 2021 Extent is  0.63 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.49 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 8.1% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 243 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 26.19 million km2, -2.43 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
On the way we will have a false maximum in late June/ early July, followed by false minimum in early September.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  18,108,204 KM2 as at 07-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 91k, 14 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 77k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.58 million km2, 0.79 million km2, 98.6% more than the 10 year average gain of 0.80 million km2.
- Extent is at position #16 in the satellite record of which 4 years were in the last century

- 2021 Extent is  0.64 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.51 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 9.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 242 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 26.20 million km2, -2.44 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
On the way we will have a false maximum in late June/ early July, followed by false minimum in early September.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  18,180,393 KM2 as at 08-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 72k, 13 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 59k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.66 million km2, 0.80 million km2, 93.3% more than the 10 year average gain of 0.86 million km2.
- Extent is at position #15 in the satellite record of which 4 years were in the last century

- 2021 Extent is  0.65 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.48 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 9.6% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 241 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 26.22 million km2, -2.45 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
On the way we will have a false maximum in late June/ early July, followed by false minimum in early September.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  18,285,983 KM2 as at 09-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 106k, 45 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 61k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.76 million km2, 0.84 million km2, 91.8% more than the 10 year average gain of 0.92 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 4 years were in the last century

- 2021 Extent is  0.70 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.50 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 10.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 240 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 26.26 million km2, 2.50 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  18,358,065 KM2 as at 10-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 72k, 2 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 70k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.83 million km2, 0.85 million km2, 85.6% more than the 10 year average gain of 0.99 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 4 years were in the last century

- 2021 Extent is  0.70 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.52 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 11.1% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 239 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 26.26 million km2, 2.50 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  18,412,507 KM2 as at 11-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 54k, 51 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 105k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.89 million km2, 0.80 million km2, 72.8% more than the 10 year average gain of 1.09 million km2.
- Extent is at position #16 in the satellite record of which 3 years were in the last century

- 2021 Extent is  0.65 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.50 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 12.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 238 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 26.21 million km2, 2.45 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  18,411,257 KM2 as at 12-Mar-2021

- Extent loss on this day 1k, 108 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 107k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.89 million km2, 0.69 million km2, 57.2% more than the 10 year average gain of 1.20 million km2.
- Extent is at position #15 in the satellite record of which 2 years were in the last century

- 2021 Extent is  0.55 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.42 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 13.5% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 237 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 26.10 million km2, 2.34 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
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A large Arctic sea ice loss and a below average Antarctic sea ice gain produces this day's global sea ice loss. In the last 2 days sea ice extent moved up from 17th to 15th lowest in the satellite record.
A one-off or signs of things to come?
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  18,372,836 KM2 as at 13-Mar-2021

- Extent loss on this day 38k, 120 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 82k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.85 million km2, 0.57 million km2, 44.2% more than the 10 year average gain of 1.28 million km2.
- Extent is at position #14 in the satellite record of which 2 years were in the last century

- 2021 Extent is  0.44 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.29 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 14.4% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 236 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.98 million km2, 2.22 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
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Recently large Antarctic and Arctic sea ioce gains conspired to produce extreme global sea ice extent gains. But in the last two days Arctic sea ice extent losses and below average Antarctic sea ice gains has reversed this.
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  18,373,110 KM2 as at 14-Mar-2021

- Extent loss on this day 0k, 78 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 78k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.85 million km2, 0.49 million km2, 35.9% more than the 10 year average gain of 1.36 million km2.
- Extent is at position #12 in the satellite record of which 1 years were in the last century

- 2021 Extent is  0.37 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.18 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 15.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 235 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.91 million km2, 2.14 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
Recently large Antarctic and Arctic sea ice gains conspired to produce extreme global sea ice extent gains. But in the last four days Arctic sea ice extent losses and below average Antarctic sea ice gains has reversed this.

As a result global sea ice extent moved up from 17th to 12th lowest in the 43 year satellite record in those 4 days.
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  18,424,398 KM2 as at 15-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 51k, 34 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 85k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.90 million km2, 0.45 million km2, 31.5% more than the 10 year average gain of 1.45 million km2.
- Extent is at position #12 in the satellite record of which 1 years were in the last century

- 2021 Extent is  0.35 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.14 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 16.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 234 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.87 million km2, 2.11 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA Global Sea ice extent - 365 day trailing average

At the moment the direction of travel is up. But the long-term direction of travel is down, at an average of 60k km2 per year.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  18,534,695 KM2 as at 16-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 110k, 47 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 63k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 2.01 million km2, 0.50 million km2, 33.2% more than the 10 year average gain of 1.51 million km2.
- Extent is at position #12 in the satellite record of which 1 years were in the last century

- 2021 Extent is  0.39 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.22 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 17.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 233 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.92 million km2, 2.16 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
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Click an image to enlarge