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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #350 on: October 01, 2018, 07:12:56 PM »
My guess is that it will follow more likely the 2017 pathway. But let's see what really happens...

jacksmith4tx

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #351 on: October 01, 2018, 11:50:54 PM »
A new visualization tool called PolarGlobe was just released.
https://asunow.asu.edu/20181001-creativity-illustrating-dance-earth
Quote
PolarGlobe is a large-scale, web-based four-dimensional visualization tool allowing climate data access to anyone with an internet connection. It’s capable of illustrating changes in the atmosphere vividly in real time.

Designed specifically for polar scientists seeking to understand the ice caps, the tool is also useful for high school science teachers and weather fanatics.

The technology is called m-cubed: “Multi-dimensional, multi-faceted, multi-variate.”

Historical data in the tool goes back to 2010. Current data is updated every six hours. The tool uses artificial intelligence and machine learning so it continues to learn on its own as new data is generated.

It’s a huge amount of data: 350 terabytes

http://cici.lab.asu.edu/polarglobe/

Maybe someone will find it useful in predicting polar ice conditions.
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #352 on: October 03, 2018, 08:39:29 PM »
NSIDC GLOBAL Daily Extent Data -  at 23.135 million Km2 on 2nd October

This is a record low (just) due to Antarctic Sea Ice dithering around the maximum and Arctic sea ice gain so far below average.

The time has almost arrived when 2016 Antarctic melt went crazy. What will 2018 do?

ps: The little wobbles in the 1980's line due to my inability to be bothered to smooth out the early years when NSIDC only posted data every 2 days.
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #353 on: October 03, 2018, 10:22:05 PM »
Once again the pen draws a line on previously untouched areas of this graph.
The closest years in global SIE are 2017, 2016 and 2012. This is not by chance, but a trend.
I wonder whether SIE loss in the Antarctic will start soon (then we may see a global SIE like 2016) or whether it will be delayed (then the global curve should more look like 2017).

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #354 on: October 04, 2018, 09:55:21 AM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 3 Oct 2018 =     22,783,227 Km2,

Extent is
- 1,087 k (4.8%) below the 2010's average.
- 174k km2 (0.8 %) below 2017,
- 194k (0.8%) below 2016,
- Lowest in the satellite record,
- 6k LESS than extent on 30 September.

Antarctic ice extent is dithering around the maximum though declining in the last 2 days,(i.e. melt very slow), Arctic ice extent increase is still very slow.

There are on average 32 days to maximum. Average remaining extent gain would produce a maximum of 24.83 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record. Higher by just over 1 million  than the 2016 record minimum maximum.

This measure is subject to highly volatile change, and projections of outcomes are of little value. However, the data does tell us that currently global sea ice is extremely low, and has been for some time.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #355 on: October 05, 2018, 09:38:02 AM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 4 Oct 2018 = 22,795,223 km2   

Extent is
- 1,127 k (4.9%) below the 2010's average.
- 308k km2 (1.3 %) below 2017,
- 280k (1.2%) below 2016,
- Lowest in the satellite record,


Antarctic ice extent, after dithering around the maximum, is now declining , Arctic ice extent increase is still below average.

There are on average 31 days to maximum. Average remaining extent gain would produce a maximum of 24.79 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record. Higher by just over 1 million  than the 2016 record minimum maximum.

This measure is subject to highly volatile change, and projections of outcomes can change greatly in a very few days. However, the data does tell us that currently global sea ice is extremely low, and has been for some time. The last graph makes it obvious that the cryosphere is shrinking.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #356 on: October 05, 2018, 09:43:31 AM »
And here is an extract from the JAXA Global Graph, to show that the pen is still writing on the unused part of the paper.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #357 on: October 06, 2018, 07:29:09 AM »
And here is an extract from the JAXA Global Graph, to show that the pen is still writing on the unused part of the paper.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #358 on: October 09, 2018, 08:11:47 AM »
My guess is that it will follow more likely the 2017 pathway. But let's see what really happens...

I think it is quite likely that we stay in record territory for much of the freezing season (possibly indefinitely). The Laptev Sea is typically experience a rapid freeze during October, but we currently look quite far out from that due to SSTs. As it catches up in November, the Chukchi Sea will be resisting its typically rapid freeze.

Antarctica can always surprise and the Hudson is set up to freeze early, but I think there is a good chance record low is the new normal.
big time oops

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #359 on: October 11, 2018, 07:10:19 PM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 10 Oct 2018 =  22,912,826 km2   

Extent is
- 1,456 k (6.0%) below the 2010's average.
- 989k km2 (4.1 %) below 2017,
- 132k (0.6%) below 2016,
- Lowest in the satellite record.

Antarctic ice extent, after dithering around the maximum, is now declining but very slowly , Arctic ice extent increase is still below average. Global sea ice extent is at the moment following 2016.

As a result, the pen has written on the unused part of the graph paper for 9 days in a row.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #360 on: October 12, 2018, 09:56:09 AM »
As of 11th October Global Sea Ice Extent for the day is no longer the lowest in the satellite record - higher than average extent gain in the Arctic plus an extent gain (instead of loss) in the Antarctic.
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #361 on: October 12, 2018, 05:48:10 PM »
This is probably another spike, such of those we see almost every year (see e.g. the green curve for 2017). I guess global sea ice data will return down to record values next week.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #362 on: October 20, 2018, 11:17:32 AM »
Global Sea Ice Extent as 19th October   23,640,213 km2

This is
- second lowest in the satellite record,
- 1.423 million km2 (5.7%)  below the 2010's average,
- 0.925 million km2 (3.8%)  below 2017,
- 0.373 million km2 (1.6%)  above 2016 (the record year).

There are on average just 16 days to the maximum, with 91% of the season's extent gain done.
The likelihood from past years is a 2nd lowest maximum.
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Aluminium

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #363 on: October 22, 2018, 12:21:41 AM »
More graphs. Global extent anomaly descended below -4σ again.

lurkalot

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #364 on: October 22, 2018, 12:21:51 PM »
To my elderly eyes it appears that, in both area and extent, this is likely to be the first time in the satellite record that the autumn local maximum is lower than the summer one. Am I right?

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #365 on: October 22, 2018, 01:04:05 PM »
To my elderly eyes it appears that, in both area and extent, this is likely to be the first time in the satellite record that the autumn local maximum is lower than the summer one. Am I right?
Looking at JAXA data suggest it will be a close run thing. But what ever happens it looks like the cryosphere continues a downward trend.

On average just 14 days to max (+/- 7 days).
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Ktb

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #366 on: October 22, 2018, 04:35:07 PM »
To my elderly eyes it appears that, in both area and extent, this is likely to be the first time in the satellite record that the autumn local maximum is lower than the summer one. Am I right?


Actually 2016 was the first to do this, and did so for both extent and area.
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #367 on: October 22, 2018, 06:29:33 PM »
To my elderly eyes it appears that, in both area and extent, this is likely to be the first time in the satellite record that the autumn local maximum is lower than the summer one. Am I right?
Statistically you can expect another fortnight with ever decreasing global sea ice increases. So it may well be that 2018 shares 2016's development. But the variability is high; slower than average melting around Antarctica and higher than average freezing in the Arctic will lead 2018's path more into 2017's direction.
Anyway, the 4 sigma deviation is shocking...

Wipneus

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #368 on: October 23, 2018, 09:15:22 AM »
To my elderly eyes it appears that, in both area and extent, this is likely to be the first time in the satellite record that the autumn local maximum is lower than the summer one. Am I right?


Actually 2016 was the first to do this, and did so for both extent and area.

Actually the first full year in the available series, 1979 was the first. After that no other years until 2016.

Click those attachments for the big view.

josh-j

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #369 on: October 23, 2018, 09:06:00 PM »
Thanks for those charts Wipneus - it's like a once healthy heartbeat suddenly looking dodgy... !

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #370 on: October 25, 2018, 01:02:25 PM »
Global Sea Ice Extent as 24th October    23,921,633  km2

This is
- second lowest in the satellite record,
- 1.464 million km2 (5.8%)  below the 2010's average,
- 0.885 million km2 (3.6%)  below 2017,
- 0.394 million km2 (1.7%)  above 2016 (the record year),
- just 22k below the false summer maximum of 23.944 million km2.

In recent days above average Antarctic extent loss was insufficient to offset high Arctic extent gain.

There are on average just 11 days to the maximum, with 95% of the season's extent gain done.
The likelihood from past years is a 2nd lowest maximum about half-way between 2017 (2nd lowest) and 2016 (lowest).
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #371 on: October 28, 2018, 09:54:43 AM »
Global Sea Ice Extent as 27th October 24,444,792 km2

This is
- second lowest in the satellite record,
- 1.082 million km2 (4.2%)  below the 2010's average,
- 0.699 million km2 (2.8%)  below 2017,
- 0.911 million km2 (3.9%)  above 2016 (the record year),

In recent days average Antarctic extent loss was insufficient to offset very high Arctic extent gain.

There are on average just 8 days to the maximum, with 96% of the season's extent gain done.
The likelihood from past years is a still a 2nd lowest maximum about 400k less than 2017 (2nd lowest) and 1 million km2 above 2016 (lowest).
« Last Edit: October 28, 2018, 10:01:02 AM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #372 on: November 04, 2018, 07:53:55 AM »
Global Sea Ice Extent as 3rd November  24,965,626  km2

This is
- second lowest in the satellite record,
- 0.772 million km2 (3.0%)  below the 2010's average,
- 0.120 million km2 (0.5%)  below 2017,
- 1.337 million km2 (5.7%)  above 2016 (the record year),

In the last fortnight or so Antarctic extent loss at average was insufficient to offset very high Arctic extent gain.

There is on average just 1 days to the maximum, with 99.4% of the season's extent gain done.
Higher Arctic extent gain is likely to continue so the maximum may well be delayed. The likelihood from past years is a still a 2nd or 3rd lowest maximum close to 2017 (2nd lowest) and 1.4 million km2 above 2016 (lowest).
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #373 on: November 04, 2018, 08:29:45 AM »
So, finally the 2018 curve comes very close to the 2017's curve and leaves 2016 as an exceptionally low year well behind it. I wonder whether the high arctic gains will stop after most of the Central Seas have now been freezing over.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #374 on: November 06, 2018, 11:12:36 AM »
Global Sea Ice Extent as 5 November 24,928,742 km2

This is
- second lowest in the satellite record,
- 0.787 million km2 (3.1%)  below the 2010's average,
- 0.113 million km2 (0.5%)  below 2017,
- 1.337 million km2 (5.7%)  above 2016 (the record year),

In the last fortnight or so Antarctic extent loss at average was insufficient to offset very high Arctic extent gain. This changed on this day as arctic sea ice gain was below average and antarctic sea loss was above average. As a result global extent dropped from the current maximum of 25.003 million km2 on November 4th. There is therefore a possibility that Nov 4th was the maximum - which is dead on the average date. However, higher Arctic extent gain may well continue so the maximum may still be delayed. The likelihood from past years is a still a 2nd or 3rd lowest maximum close to 2017 (2nd lowest) and nearly 1.5 million km2 above 2016 on Nov 4th.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #375 on: November 07, 2018, 02:01:21 PM »
Global Sea Ice Extent as 6 November  24,794,112 km2

This is
- second lowest in the satellite record,
- 0.909 million km2 (3.5%)  below the 2010's average,
- 0.277 million km2 (1.1%)  below 2017,
- 1.158 million km2 (4.9%)  above 2016 (the record year),

In the last fortnight or so Antarctic extent loss at average was insufficient to offset very high Arctic extent gain. This has changed as arctic sea ice gain is below average and antarctic sea loss is above average. As a result global extent dropped from the current maximum of 25.003 million km2 on November 4th. There is therefore a possibility that Nov 4th was the maximum - which is dead on the average date. However, higher Arctic extent gain may continue so the maximum may still be delayed. The likelihood from past years is a still a 2nd or 3rd lowest maximum close to 2017 (2nd lowest) and around 1.5 million km2 above 2016 on Nov 4th.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #376 on: November 08, 2018, 11:37:15 AM »
Global Sea Ice Extent as 7 November   24,706,453 km2

This is
- second lowest in the satellite record,
- 0.978 million km2 (3.8%)  below the 2010's average,
- 0.400 million km2 (1.6%)  below 2017,
- 1.093 million km2 (4.6%)  above 2016 (the record year),

In the last fortnight or so Antarctic extent loss at average was insufficient to offset very high Arctic extent gain. This has changed as arctic sea ice gain is below average and antarctic sea loss is above average. As a result global extent dropped by 300k from the current maximum of 25.003 million km2 on November 4th.

Therefore I assume that Nov 4th was the maximum - which is dead on the average date. However, higher Arctic extent gain may continue so the maximum could still be delayed.
A maximum of 25.003 million is 2nd lowest, 1.24 million above the 2016 record low max, and 0.15 million less than 2017, now 3rd lowest.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #377 on: November 13, 2018, 11:12:58 AM »
Global Sea Ice Extent as 12 November 24,681,640 km2

This is
- second lowest in the satellite record,
- 0.754 million km2 (3.0%)  below the 2010's average,
- 0.007 million km2 (0.0%)  below 2017,
- 1.567 million km2 (6.8%)  above 2016 (the record year),

In the last fortnight or so Antarctic extent loss at average or below was insufficient to offset very high Arctic extent gain. I have added 2016 and 2017 to one of the graphs to show the contrast with the current year
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #378 on: November 13, 2018, 05:19:12 PM »
Thank you, gerontocrat, for this: 
Quote
... I have added 2016 and 2017 to one of the graphs to show the contrast with the current year ...
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #379 on: November 25, 2018, 09:17:34 AM »
Global Sea Ice Extent as 24 November  24,335,046 km2

This is
- third lowest in the satellite record,
- 0.298 million km2 (1.2%)  below the 2010's average,
- 0.926 million km2 (4.0%)  above 2017,
- 2.641 million km2 (12.2%) above 2016 (the record year),

In the last fortnight or so Antarctic extent loss has been at average or below while Arctic extent gain has been well above average. 2018 global extent is now very much with the 2010's average rather than the record low years of 2016 and 2017. I have added 2016 and 2017 to one of the graphs to show the contrast with the current year.
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Neven

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #380 on: November 25, 2018, 06:33:56 PM »
So, judging by Wipneus' global sea ice graphs, is it safe to saw we've witnessed the second lowest maximum on record, for both extent and area?
Compare, compare, compare

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #381 on: November 25, 2018, 07:19:33 PM »
Looks like some might complain about extent being statistically ignisificantly lower but yea, second lowest it is. Not much of an ice age coming up.
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #382 on: November 26, 2018, 04:57:25 PM »
extent......second lowest......Not much of an ice age coming up.
Average Arctic sea ice VOLUME for November 1, for the period 1980-89, was ~18,100 cubic kilometers. November 1, 2018 sea ice VOLUME is ~7200 cubic kilometers, ~10,900 cubic kilometers less than the 1980-89 period for November. Energy needed to melt 10,900 cubic kilometers of ice is ~ 34 times the U.S. consumption of energy.
Yes, before AGW deniers talk "ice age" (& not even then), the Arctic sea ice of the 1980's must be restored.

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #383 on: November 27, 2018, 05:39:34 AM »
So, judging by Wipneus' global sea ice graphs, is it safe to saw we've witnessed the second lowest maximum on record, for both extent and area?

The graphs also show that with Antarctic sea ice melt slowing down and arctic ice higher now than many previous years, 2018 has moved up to third lowest after 2016 (lowest) and 2017 (second lowest. In addition, the current low negative slope of the 2018 line shows a trajectory that might put it back into the pack, with a total sea ice level not particularly low compared to prior years.
Feel The Burn!

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #384 on: December 01, 2018, 10:14:18 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as 30 November   23,704,663 km2

This is
- third lowest in the satellite record,
- 0.504 million km2 (2.1%)  below the 2010's average,
- 0.660 million km2 (2.9%)  above 2017, (the 2nd lowest year)
- 2.334 million km2 (10.9%) above 2016 (the record year),

In the last week or so Antarctic extent loss has been at average or just below while Arctic extent gain has been well below average. This has resulted in above average extent loss in the week. 2018 global extent is a bit closer to the record low years of 2016 and 2017. I have added 2016 and 2017 to one of the graphs to show the contrast with the current year.

The February minimum is, on average, 77 days away, with only 17% of extent loss from maximum done. It is all in the lap of the ice gods, e.g. the goddess of winter, death and rivers, Morana.

Quote
She is a Slavic goddess and the only one that connects Nav (Slavic version of Hell) to Earth and Nebo (Slavic version of Heaven). When talking about her one must remember that despite being gruesome and sometimes clearly evil, she is the mother goddess of all Slavic people.

Appearance: She is both a young, beautiful virgin and terrifying crone. She has deathly pale face, but it's usually covered with black ash since she enters the houses through chimneys to kill people (talk about Grim Santa). Her hands are very similar to wolf's paws and she has big talons. All that is accompanied by her gruesome fangs and huge, terrible eyes. She is said to have extraordinary long hair with which she drags the souls to the netherworld.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #385 on: December 07, 2018, 06:43:56 PM »
Global extent starting to look interesting. A proper look in a few days, methinks. meanwhile, a graph.
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Ktb

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #386 on: December 09, 2018, 08:32:45 AM »
Wipneus shows global extent remains in 3rd, while global area moved into 2nd lowest.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #387 on: December 11, 2018, 12:01:29 PM »
Antarctic Sea ice extent and area falling off a cliff. Two graphs using JAXA extent data attached.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #388 on: December 12, 2018, 09:41:58 AM »
Antarctic Sea ice extent and area falling off a cliff, overwhelms above average Arctic extent gain.
Two graphs using JAXA extent data attached.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #389 on: December 14, 2018, 12:02:42 PM »
The graphs again.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #390 on: December 15, 2018, 09:23:30 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as 14 December 21,267,980 km2

This is
- third lowest in the satellite record,
- 1.201 million km2 (5.3%)  below the 2010's average,
- 0.087 million km2 (0.5%)  above 2017, (the 2nd lowest year)
- 1.979 million km2 (10.3%) above 2016 (the record year),

In the last 2 weeks or so Antarctic extent loss has been mostly above average while Arctic extent gain has been mixed. This has resulted in above average extent loss in this period. Since maximum, extent loss has been 0.6 million km2 (19 %) greater than the last 10 years average

2018 global extent is a bit much closer to 2017, but still a long way above the record low year of 2016. I have added 2016 and 2017 to one of the graphs to show the contrast with the current year.

The February minimum is, on average, 63 days away, with 35% of extent loss from maximum done. Average extent loss from now to minimum would result in a record low minimum, but at this early in the season it is all in the lap of the ice gods. (See the Holocene Extinction thread for various choices).
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #391 on: December 17, 2018, 03:32:39 PM »
With JAXA having problems, here is some NSIDC stuff
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #392 on: Today at 11:35:16 AM »
Here are a couple of graphs on JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent. The odd data from the Arctic makes the graphs look odd.
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