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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #400 on: December 28, 2018, 12:21:37 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 27 December  17,911,717  km2

This is
- 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- 2.304 million km2 (11.4%)  below the 2010's average,
- 0.986 million km2 (5.2%)  below 2017, (the 2nd lowest year)
- 0.148 million km2 (0.8%) above 2016 (the record year), getting closer every day

In the last 2 weeks or so Antarctic extent loss has been very much above average while Arctic extent gain has been mixed. This has resulted in above average extent loss in this period. Since maximum, extent loss has been 1.80 million km2 (34 %) greater than the last 10 years average

2018 global extent is significantly lower than 2017, and rapidly closing on the record low year of 2016. I have added 2016 and 2017 to one of the graphs to show the contrast with the current year.

On average, in the last 4 days of the year (2010's) extent drops by 550k.
In 2016,  in the last 4 days of the year extent dropped by just 110k.
Therefore it is probable that on Dec 31 2018 global extent will be the lowest for that day in the satellite record (and maybe for several millenia?)

The February minimum is, on average, 50 days away, with 59% of extent loss from maximum done. Average extent loss from now to minimum would result in a record low minimum of 14.24 million km2, some 1.3 million km2 below the previous record low. This is unlikely, as it would require Antarctic sea ice extent to approach a low extent of about half of the previous record low. At this early in the season it is all in the lap of the ice gods, but a record low minimum gets more likely day by day.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #401 on: December 28, 2018, 02:17:13 PM »
2018 extent is now a mere 350k (JAXA) above 2016. I sense a new record holder in the next 2-5 days. Especially with 2016's flatline from now through the first few days of the new year.
NSIDC Daily Sea Ice Extent data has 2018 at a record low already.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #402 on: December 29, 2018, 10:55:41 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 28 December 17,780,377  km2

This is
- 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- 2.307 million km2 (11.5%)  below the 2010's average,
- 0.916 million km2 (4.9%)  below 2017, (the 2nd lowest year)
- 0.011 million km2 (0.1%) above 2016 (the record year), getting closer every day

In the last 2 weeks or so Antarctic extent loss has been very much above average while Arctic extent gain has been mixed. This has resulted in above average extent loss in this period. A change may be in progress. Since maximum, extent loss has been 1.81 million km2 (33 %) greater than the last 10 years average

2018 global extent is significantly lower than 2017, and rapidly closing on the record low year of 2016. I have added 2016 and 2017 to one of the graphs to show the contrast with the current year.

On average, in the last 3 days of the year (2010's) extent drops by 420k.
In 2016,  in the last 3 days of the year extent dropped by just 116k.
Therefore it is probable that on Dec 31 2018 global extent will be the lowest for that day in the satellite record (and maybe for several millenia?)

The February minimum is, on average, 49 days away, with 60% of extent loss from maximum done. Average extent loss from now to minimum would result in a record low minimum of 14.25 million km2, some 1.3 million km2 below the previous record low. This is unlikely, as it would require Antarctic sea ice extent to approach a low extent of about half of the previous record low. At this early in the season it is all in the lap of the ice gods, but a record low minimum gets more likely day by day.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #403 on: December 30, 2018, 10:41:33 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 29 December  17,724,671   km2

This is
- the lowest in the satellite record,
- 2.242 million km2 (11.2%)  below the 2010's average,
- 0.847 million km2 (4.6%)  below 2017, (the 2nd lowest year)
- 0.114 million km2 (0.6%) below 2016 (the record year).

In the last 2 weeks or so Antarctic extent loss has been very much above average while Arctic extent gain has been mixed. This has resulted in above average extent loss in this period. A change is probably in progress as Antarctic sea ice loss slows as high concentration coastal ice now predominates. Since maximum, extent loss has been 1.72 million km2 (31 %) greater than the last 10 years average, and from now is likely to reduce. However, the probability for a new record low minimum remains, though not by over a million km2 as currently indicated in the table.

« Last Edit: December 30, 2018, 03:48:27 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #404 on: December 31, 2018, 11:37:05 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 30 December 17,670,704 km2

Still lowest by 102 k
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #405 on: January 01, 2019, 04:15:07 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 30 December  17,318,948 km2

Still lowest by 335 k
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #406 on: January 05, 2019, 02:02:48 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 30 December  17,318,948 km2

The recent gradual reduction in daily Antarctic sea ice loss combined with the recent change to above average Arctic sea ice gain has resulted in Global Sea Ice Extent becoming 2nd lowest.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #407 on: January 06, 2019, 10:53:52 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 5 January 2019 17,369,115 km2

The recent gradual reduction in daily Antarctic sea ice loss combined with the recent change to above average Arctic sea ice gain has resulted in Global Sea Ice Extent becoming 2nd lowest on the 4th Jan, and back to 1st lowest on the 5th by just 23k km2.
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Juan C. García

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #408 on: January 09, 2019, 02:58:05 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Global Sea Ice Extent.

January 8th, 2019:
     17,056,375 km2, a drop of -137,992 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.


We miss you Gerontocrat. Hope everything is fine!  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #409 on: January 09, 2019, 03:00:26 PM »
Quote
We miss you Gerontocrat. Hope everything is fine!

+1

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #410 on: January 09, 2019, 04:48:54 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Global Sea Ice Extent.

January 8th, 2019:
     17,056,375 km2, a drop of -137,992 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.


We miss you Gerontocrat. Hope everything is fine!  ;)
Hi, Juan.

Computer & Mobile phone died.
Sticking plaster and soothing words applied.
Data rescue underway. (Amazingly, back-up system seems to have worked).

With luck back in action tomorrow.

What to do when this clapped out old laptop finally dies is a question I am avoiding.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #411 on: January 10, 2019, 06:22:50 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 9 January 2019  17,027,437 km2

The continuing gradual reduction in daily Antarctic sea ice loss combined average to above average Arctic sea ice gain has resulted in Global Sea Ice Extent becoming 2nd lowest on the 4th Jan, and back to 1st lowest on the 5th by just 87k km2.

On average 37 days to minimum, with 78% of extent loss done, with an outcome from average remaining extent loss of a possible minimum of around 15 million km2, some 0.5 million km2 below the previous record low. BUT looking at the results from the previous 2 years, a more likely scenario, suggests a definite very low result, and maybe a 50-50 chance of a record low.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #412 on: January 10, 2019, 07:23:03 AM »
The attached graphs show how the rate of extent loss is associated with sea ice concentration (i.e. ratio of area to extent), and also the rate of change in Albedo Warming Potential.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #413 on: January 12, 2019, 10:35:00 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 11 January 2019  17,027,437 km2

The continuing gradual reduction in daily Antarctic sea ice loss combined with mostly average to above average Arctic sea ice gain has resulted in Global Sea Ice Extent becoming 2nd lowest by 187k km2 (compared with 2017).

On average 35 days to minimum, with 80% of extent loss done, with an outcome from average remaining extent loss of a possible minimum of around 15 million km2, some 0.5 million km2 below the previous record low. BUT looking at the results from the previous 2 years, a more likely scenario, suggests a definitely very low result, and maybe a 50-50 chance of a record low.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #414 on: January 20, 2019, 04:45:40 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 19 January 2019  17,027,437 km2

The continuing reduction in daily Antarctic sea ice loss combined with mostly average to above average Arctic sea ice gain has resulted in Global Sea Ice Extent becoming 4th lowest, extent above 2018, 2017 and 2011.

On average 27 days to minimum, with 88.7% of extent loss done, with an outcome from average remaining extent loss of a possible minimum of around 15.6 million km2, close to the previous record low.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #415 on: January 25, 2019, 11:17:55 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 24 January 2019   16,522,965  km2

The continuing reduction in daily Antarctic sea ice loss combined with mostly average to above average Arctic sea ice gain has resulted in Global Sea Ice Extent becoming 5th lowest, extent above 2018, 2017, 2006 and 2011.

On average 22 days to minimum, with 92.2% of extent loss done, with an outcome from average remaining extent loss of a possible minimum of around 15.82 million km2, 270k above the previous record low of 2018.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #416 on: February 01, 2019, 12:38:03 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 31 January 2019 16,398,255  km2

The continuing reduction in daily Antarctic sea ice loss combined with mostly average to above average Arctic sea ice gain has resulted in Global Sea Ice Extent becoming 4th lowest, extent above 2018, 2017, and 2006 .

On average 15 days to minimum (On Valentine's day), with 95.7% of extent loss done, with an outcome from average remaining extent loss of a possible minimum of around 16.01 million km2, 450k above the previous record low of 2018.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #417 on: February 02, 2019, 01:44:46 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 1 February 2019  16,332,280  km2

The continuing reduction in daily Antarctic sea ice loss combined with mostly average to above average Arctic sea ice gain has resulted in Global Sea Ice Extent becoming 4th lowest, extent above 2018, 2017, and 2006. However, in the last 2 days Arctic has lost ice extent, reversing this trend somewhat.

On average 14 days to minimum (On Valentine's day), with 95.9% of extent loss done, with an outcome from average remaining extent loss of a possible minimum of around 15.96 million km2, 408k above the previous record low of 2018.

This last 14 days may well produce another surprise or two.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #418 on: February 05, 2019, 08:35:28 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 4 February 2019   16,268,817   km2

Global Sea Ice Extent is 3rd lowest, above 2018 and 2017. In the last week Arctic Sea Ice has lost extent, while Antarctic Sea Ice Extent daily loss remained below average.

On average 10 days to minimum (On Valentine's day), with 96.8% of extent loss done, with an outcome from average remaining extent loss of a possible minimum of around 15.98 million km2, 425k above the previous record low of 2018.

This remaining 10 days or so could still produce another surprise or two.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #419 on: February 11, 2019, 05:56:08 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 10 February 2019  16,394,681 km2

Global Sea Ice Extent is 5th lowest, above 2018, 2017, 2010 and 2006. In the last week Arctic Sea Ice gain has tended to above average, while Antarctic Sea Ice Extent daily loss remained below average.

On average 4 days to minimum (On Valentine's day), with 98.5% of extent loss done, with an outcome from average remaining extent loss of a possible minimum of around 16.26 million km2, 711k above the previous record low of 2018.
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Wipneus

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #420 on: February 11, 2019, 04:16:37 PM »
Following the GIOMAS update here are the update volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #421 on: February 13, 2019, 12:30:07 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 12 February 2019   16,403,991  km2

Global Sea Ice Extent is 6th lowest, above 2018, 2017, 2016, 2010 and 2006. In the last week Arctic Sea Ice gain has tended to above average, while Antarctic Sea Ice Extent daily loss remained below average apart from the last 2 days.

On average 2 days to minimum (On Valentine's day), with 99.2% of extent loss done, with an outcome from average remaining extent loss of 16.33 million km2. However, the current minimum is 16.25 million km2 on the 5th February. Unless there is a surprise, this will be the minimum for 2019. This makes the table of projections AA1 attached basically meaningless, which (IMHO) happens to all projections at and around the times of minima and maxima.


« Last Edit: February 13, 2019, 12:37:24 PM by gerontocrat »
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #422 on: February 14, 2019, 07:34:58 PM »
If the global minimum already has occurred it will be the earliest minimum (Feb 05) in the last 15 years. However, some days or even two weeks back and forth does not mean anything...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #423 on: February 15, 2019, 08:32:54 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 14 February 2019  16,542,286 km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 6th lowest, above 2018, 2017, 2016, 2010 and 2006. In the last week Arctic Sea Ice gain has tended to above average, while Antarctic Sea Ice Extent daily loss remained below average apart from the last 2 days.

On average 0 days to minimum. However, the current minimum is  16,249,255 km2 that occurred on the 5th February. Unless there is a very big surprise, this will be the minimum for 2019, and was third lowest in the satellite record since 1979. (See table AA3 attached).
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #424 on: February 17, 2019, 04:40:55 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 16 February 2019   16,485,367 km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 6th lowest, above 2018, 2017, 2016, 2010 and 2006.

On average 2 days after the minimum. Modest reduction in sea ice extent in the last 2 days. The current minimum is 16,249,255 km2 that occurred on the 5th February. Unless there is a very big surprise, this will be the minimum for 2019, and was third lowest in the satellite record since 1979.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #425 on: February 23, 2019, 11:42:02 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 22 February 2019 :-  16,659,330  km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 6th lowest, above 2018, 2017, 2016, 2010 and 2006.

The minimum for 2019 was 16,249,255 km2 that occurred on the 5th February. Unless there is a very big surprise, this will be the minimum for 2019, and was SIXTH lowest in the satellite record since 1979.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #426 on: February 24, 2019, 01:49:42 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 23 February 2019 :-   16,598,381  km2

A surprise today - ice extent losses in both hemispheres means 23 Feb global ice extent LOSS was 61K, 106 K LESS than the average GAIN of 45 k on this day.

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 6th lowest, above 2018, 2017, 2016, 2010 and 2006.

The minimum for 2019 was 16,249,255 km2 that occurred on the 5th February. Unless there is a very big surprise, this will be the minimum for 2019, and was SIXTH lowest in the satellite record since 1979.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #427 on: February 25, 2019, 10:25:42 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 24 February 2019 :-  16,499,734  km2

A surprise for a second day - ice extent losses in both hemispheres means 24 Feb global ice extent LOSS was 99K, 144 K LESS than the average GAIN of 45 k on this day.

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 5th lowest, above 2018, 2017, 2011 and 2006.

The minimum for 2019 was 16,249,255 km2 that occurred on the 5th February. Unless there is a very big surprise, this will be the minimum for 2019, and was SIXTH lowest in the satellite record since 1979.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #428 on: February 26, 2019, 07:24:26 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 24 February 2019 :- 16,460,942  km2

A surprise for a third day - large ice extent losses in the Arctic + modest increase in the Antarctic means 24 Feb global ice extent LOSS was 39K, 81 K LESS than the average GAIN of 42 k on this day.

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 5th lowest, above 2018, 2017, 2011 and 2006.

The minimum for 2019 was 16,249,255 km2 that occurred on the 5th February. Unless there is a very big surprise, this will be the minimum for 2019, and was SIXTH lowest in the satellite record since 1979.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #429 on: February 27, 2019, 09:58:51 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 26 February 2019 :-  16,464,387  km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 5th lowest, above 2018, 2017, 2011 and 2006.

The minimum for 2019 was 16,249,255 km2 that occurred on the 5th February. Unless there is a very big surprise, this will be the minimum for 2019, and was SIXTH lowest in the satellite record since 1979.
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #430 on: February 27, 2019, 03:22:19 PM »
When that hunk of ice breaks off in Antarctica does the sea ice suddenly jump by two New Yorks?

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #431 on: February 27, 2019, 03:52:58 PM »
When that hunk of ice breaks off in Antarctica does the sea ice suddenly jump by two New Yorks?
The Larsen C A68A berg had an area of 5,800 km2, a bit less now. This is HUGE to small animals like ourselves and TINY in the context of Antarctic Sea ice which is in the range of 2,500,000 to 18,000,000 km2.  Bergs once separated from its ice shelf or glacier I presume become part of measured sea ice extent and area. - once the mask is altered to the new ice shelf edge.

Someone on this forum who actually knows about this stuff may clarify. If no response, suggest you chuck your question onto the "stupid questions" thread.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #432 on: February 27, 2019, 04:22:32 PM »
When that hunk of ice breaks off in Antarctica does the sea ice suddenly jump by two New Yorks?
The Larsen C A68A berg had an area of 5,800 km2, a bit less now. This is HUGE to small animals like ourselves and TINY in the context of Antarctic Sea ice which is in the range of 2,500,000 to 18,000,000 km2.  Bergs once separated from its ice shelf or glacier I presume become part of measured sea ice extent and area. - once the mask is altered to the new ice shelf edge.

Someone on this forum who actually knows about this stuff may clarify. If no response, suggest you chuck your question onto the "stupid questions" thread.

It all depends on from where the ice originated.  Since the sea ice expands and contracts from the ice shelf, differentiating sea ice from shelf ice is somewhat nebulous, and open to the particular masking.

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #433 on: February 28, 2019, 07:39:10 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 27 February 2019 :-   16,436,229 km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 5th lowest, above 2018, 2017, 2011 and 2006.

The minimum for 2019 was 16,249,255 km2 that occurred on the 5th February. Unless there is a very big surprise, this will be the minimum for 2019, and was SIXTH lowest in the satellite record since 1979.

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #434 on: March 01, 2019, 10:46:50 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 28 February 2019 :- 16,397,476 km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 5th lowest, above 2018 & 2017.

The minimum for 2019 was 16,249,255 km2 that occurred on the 5th February. Unless there is a very big surprise, this will be the minimum for 2019, and was SIXTH lowest in the satellite record since 1979.
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #435 on: March 02, 2019, 10:31:54 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 1 March 2019 :- 16,397,476 km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 3rd lowest, above 2018 & 2017.

The current minimum for 2019 was 16,249,255 km2 that occurred on the 5th February. Unless there is a very big surprise, this will be the minimum for 2019, and was SIXTH lowest in the satellite record since 1979. Assuming that this is the case...
- extent gain on this day 8k, 68k less than average gain of 76 k,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 160k, 390 k (72%) less than the average gain of 550k,
- last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 24.75 million km2,  986k more than the record low max in 2016.
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #436 on: March 03, 2019, 12:57:35 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 2 March 2019 :-  16,516,698 km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 4th lowest, above 2018 & 2017 & 2016.

The current minimum for 2019 was 16,249,255 km2 that occurred on the 5th February. Unless there is a very big surprise, this will be the minimum for 2019, and was SIXTH lowest in the satellite record since 1979. Assuming that this is the case...
- extent gain on this day 111k, 68k greater than the average gain of 43 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 270k, 330 k (55%) less than the average gain of 600k,
-on average 6.5 of extent gain done and 247 days to maximum ( 4-Nov),
- last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 24.69 million km2,  925k more than the record low max of 2016.

From now on weekly updates only unless a big surprise (either way).

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #437 on: March 09, 2019, 10:35:44 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 8 March 2019 :-   16,786,936  km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 3rd lowest, above 2018 & 2017.

- extent gain on this day 51k, 1k less than the average gain of 52 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 540k, 430 k (45%) less than the average gain of 970k,
-on average 10.7% of extent gain done and 241 days to maximum ( 4-Nov),
- last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 24.54 million km2,  908k more than the record low max of 2016.

From now on only occasional updates unless a big surprise (either way).
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #438 on: March 15, 2019, 10:53:13 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 14 March 2019 :-    17,146,871  km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 3rd lowest, above 2017 & 2006.

- extent gain on this day 4k, 83k less than the average gain of 87 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 900k, 550k (38%) less than the average gain of 1,450k,
-on average 15.9% of extent gain done and 235 days to maximum ( 4-Nov),
- last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 24.87 million km2,  1,237 k more than the record low max of 2016.

From now on only occasional updates unless a big surprise (either way).
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #439 on: March 16, 2019, 09:25:02 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 15 March 2019 :-    17,146,871  km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 3rd lowest, above 2017 & 2006. Unusual extent loss on this day.

- extent loss on this day 19k, 108k less than the average gain of 89 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 880k, 650k (43%) less than the average gain of 1,530k,
-on average 16.9% of extent gain done and 234 days to maximum ( 4-Nov),
- last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 24.84 million km2,  1,208 k more than the record low max of 2016.
__________________________________________________________
From now on only occasional updates unless unusual stuff going on.
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #440 on: March 17, 2019, 12:52:51 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 16 March 2019 :-  17,112,765  km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 3rd lowest, above 2017 & 2006. Unusual extent loss for a second day.

- extent loss on this day 15k, 94k less than the average gain of 79 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 860k, 750k (46%) less than the average gain of 1,610k,
-on average 17.8% of extent gain done and 233 days to maximum ( 4-Nov),
- last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 24.84 million km2,  1,205 k more than the record low max of 2016.
__________________________________________________________
From now on only occasional updates unless unusual stuff going on.
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #441 on: March 23, 2019, 09:58:01 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 22 March 2019 :-   17,426,312  km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 3rd lowest, above 2017 & 2006. Unusual extent loss for a second day. Extent gains a mixture of below or above average in the last few days.

- extent gain on this day 13k, 45k less than the average gain of 58 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 1,180k, 790k (40%) less than the average gain of 1,790k,
-on average 21.8% of extent gain done and 227 days to maximum ( 4-Nov),
- last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 24.82 million km2,  1,179 k more than the record low max of 2016.
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #442 on: March 23, 2019, 10:31:57 AM »
I want to predict that on April 26 it will be on 19,500,000

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #443 on: March 23, 2019, 11:37:48 AM »
I want to predict that on April 26 it will be on 19,500,000
Using the Artificial Moron embedded in my computer, I added  linear and x2 trend lines.
As you can see, probably of zero value.

My own experience of my own forecasts is that my only hope is that there is a possibility, no matter how close to zero, that the impossible can happen (pace Douglas Adams).
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #444 on: March 24, 2019, 11:18:26 AM »
A large drop in Arctic Extent makes an unusual Global area ice extent drop on the 23rd March.
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #445 on: March 25, 2019, 01:10:04 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 24 March 2019 :-    17,392,354  km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 3rd lowest, above 2017 & 2006. Unusual extent loss for a second day - low Antarctic gain + high Arctic loss.

- extent loss on this day 16k, 85k less than the average gain of 69 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 1,480k, 970k (46%) less than the average gain of 2,110k,
-on average 23.4% of extent gain done and 225 days to maximum ( 4-Nov),
- last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 24.31** million km2,  671k more than the record low max of 2016 and 2nd lowest in the satellite record.

(N.B. 24.31** is a corrected calculation - I screwed up and exaggerated the projected maximum)
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #446 on: March 30, 2019, 11:18:26 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 29 March 2019 :-    17,392,354  km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 2nd lowest, above 2017. Unusual extent loss on this day - low Antarctic gain + high Arctic loss continue.

- extent loss on this day 45k, 99k less than the average gain of 54 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 1,290k, 1,230k (49%) less than the average gain of 2,510k,
-on average 27.8% of extent gain done and 220 days to maximum ( 4-Nov),
- last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 24.05 million km2,  411k more than the record low max of 2016 and 2nd lowest in the satellite record.

____________________________________________________________________________
From now on only occasional updates unless unusual stuff going on. But maybe unusual is the new normal.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #447 on: March 31, 2019, 11:08:50 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 30 March 2019 :- 17,434,339  km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 2nd lowest, above 2017. A second and even greater unusual extent loss on this day - low Antarctic gain + high Arctic loss continue.

- extent loss on this day 100k,  a variation of 171k from the the average gain of 71 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 1,190k, 1,400k (54%) less than the average gain of 2,580k,
-on average 28.6% of extent gain done and 219 days to maximum ( 4-Nov),
- last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 23.88 million km2,  240k more than the record low max of 2016 and 2nd lowest in the satellite record.

____________________________________________________________________________
From now on only occasional updates unless unusual stuff going on. But maybe unusual is the new normal.
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #448 on: March 31, 2019, 02:51:48 PM »
And now the Artificial Moron embedded in your computer agrees with 19,500,000 on the 26th April.
All that needs to happen is for both poles to start behaving in an average manner to be correct.

Given the heat in the Arctic, I think my rather silly bet that I never expected to have a show in being right may actually be too high.

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #449 on: April 03, 2019, 09:31:03 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 2 April 2019 :- 17,519,837  km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 2nd lowest, above 2017. Slightly below Antarctic gain + high Arctic loss continues.

- extent gain on this day 15k,  a variation of 49k from the the average gain of 64 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 1,270k, 1,540k (55%) less than the average gain of 2,810k,
-on average 31.1% of extent gain done and 216 days to maximum ( 4-Nov),

The Perils of Projections
- last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 23.74 million km2,  100k more than the record low max of 2016 and 2nd lowest in the satellite record. In the next 2 days 2017 extent gains were very high, so there is a good chance that 2019 will be lowest in the satellite record tomorrow or the day after.

Also note what has happened to the x2 projection line. Just 3 days of below average gain shifts the 19.5 million extent as forecasted by Rodius for the 26th April to the 14th May. That very short-term fprecasts can be so wobbly suggests that forecasts this early in the season for the final result need taking with not a pinch but a bucketful of salt.

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From now on only occasional updates unless unusual stuff going on. But maybe unusual is the new normal.
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)