JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 27 December 17,911,717 km2
This is
- 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- 2.304 million km2 (11.4%) below the 2010's average,
- 0.986 million km2 (5.2%) below 2017, (the 2nd lowest year)
- 0.148 million km2 (0.8%) above 2016 (the record year), getting closer every day
In the last 2 weeks or so Antarctic extent loss has been very much above average while Arctic extent gain has been mixed. This has resulted in above average extent loss in this period. Since maximum, extent loss has been 1.80 million km2 (34 %) greater than the last 10 years average
2018 global extent is significantly lower than 2017, and rapidly closing on the record low year of 2016. I have added 2016 and 2017 to one of the graphs to show the contrast with the current year.
On average, in the last 4 days of the year (2010's) extent drops by 550k.
In 2016, in the last 4 days of the year extent dropped by just 110k.
Therefore it is probable that on Dec 31 2018 global extent will be the lowest for that day in the satellite record (and maybe for several millenia?)
The February minimum is, on average, 50 days away, with 59% of extent loss from maximum done. Average extent loss from now to minimum would result in a record low minimum of 14.24 million km2, some 1.3 million km2 below the previous record low. This is unlikely, as it would require Antarctic sea ice extent to approach a low extent of about half of the previous record low. At this early in the season it is all in the lap of the ice gods, but a record low minimum gets more likely day by day.