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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #400 on: December 28, 2018, 12:21:37 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 27 December  17,911,717  km2

This is
- 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- 2.304 million km2 (11.4%)  below the 2010's average,
- 0.986 million km2 (5.2%)  below 2017, (the 2nd lowest year)
- 0.148 million km2 (0.8%) above 2016 (the record year), getting closer every day

In the last 2 weeks or so Antarctic extent loss has been very much above average while Arctic extent gain has been mixed. This has resulted in above average extent loss in this period. Since maximum, extent loss has been 1.80 million km2 (34 %) greater than the last 10 years average

2018 global extent is significantly lower than 2017, and rapidly closing on the record low year of 2016. I have added 2016 and 2017 to one of the graphs to show the contrast with the current year.

On average, in the last 4 days of the year (2010's) extent drops by 550k.
In 2016,  in the last 4 days of the year extent dropped by just 110k.
Therefore it is probable that on Dec 31 2018 global extent will be the lowest for that day in the satellite record (and maybe for several millenia?)

The February minimum is, on average, 50 days away, with 59% of extent loss from maximum done. Average extent loss from now to minimum would result in a record low minimum of 14.24 million km2, some 1.3 million km2 below the previous record low. This is unlikely, as it would require Antarctic sea ice extent to approach a low extent of about half of the previous record low. At this early in the season it is all in the lap of the ice gods, but a record low minimum gets more likely day by day.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #401 on: December 28, 2018, 02:17:13 PM »
2018 extent is now a mere 350k (JAXA) above 2016. I sense a new record holder in the next 2-5 days. Especially with 2016's flatline from now through the first few days of the new year.
NSIDC Daily Sea Ice Extent data has 2018 at a record low already.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #402 on: December 29, 2018, 10:55:41 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 28 December 17,780,377  km2

This is
- 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- 2.307 million km2 (11.5%)  below the 2010's average,
- 0.916 million km2 (4.9%)  below 2017, (the 2nd lowest year)
- 0.011 million km2 (0.1%) above 2016 (the record year), getting closer every day

In the last 2 weeks or so Antarctic extent loss has been very much above average while Arctic extent gain has been mixed. This has resulted in above average extent loss in this period. A change may be in progress. Since maximum, extent loss has been 1.81 million km2 (33 %) greater than the last 10 years average

2018 global extent is significantly lower than 2017, and rapidly closing on the record low year of 2016. I have added 2016 and 2017 to one of the graphs to show the contrast with the current year.

On average, in the last 3 days of the year (2010's) extent drops by 420k.
In 2016,  in the last 3 days of the year extent dropped by just 116k.
Therefore it is probable that on Dec 31 2018 global extent will be the lowest for that day in the satellite record (and maybe for several millenia?)

The February minimum is, on average, 49 days away, with 60% of extent loss from maximum done. Average extent loss from now to minimum would result in a record low minimum of 14.25 million km2, some 1.3 million km2 below the previous record low. This is unlikely, as it would require Antarctic sea ice extent to approach a low extent of about half of the previous record low. At this early in the season it is all in the lap of the ice gods, but a record low minimum gets more likely day by day.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #403 on: December 30, 2018, 10:41:33 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 29 December  17,724,671   km2

This is
- the lowest in the satellite record,
- 2.242 million km2 (11.2%)  below the 2010's average,
- 0.847 million km2 (4.6%)  below 2017, (the 2nd lowest year)
- 0.114 million km2 (0.6%) below 2016 (the record year).

In the last 2 weeks or so Antarctic extent loss has been very much above average while Arctic extent gain has been mixed. This has resulted in above average extent loss in this period. A change is probably in progress as Antarctic sea ice loss slows as high concentration coastal ice now predominates. Since maximum, extent loss has been 1.72 million km2 (31 %) greater than the last 10 years average, and from now is likely to reduce. However, the probability for a new record low minimum remains, though not by over a million km2 as currently indicated in the table.

« Last Edit: December 30, 2018, 03:48:27 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #404 on: December 31, 2018, 11:37:05 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 30 December 17,670,704 km2

Still lowest by 102 k
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #405 on: January 01, 2019, 04:15:07 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 30 December  17,318,948 km2

Still lowest by 335 k
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #406 on: January 05, 2019, 02:02:48 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 30 December  17,318,948 km2

The recent gradual reduction in daily Antarctic sea ice loss combined with the recent change to above average Arctic sea ice gain has resulted in Global Sea Ice Extent becoming 2nd lowest.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #407 on: January 06, 2019, 10:53:52 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 5 January 2019 17,369,115 km2

The recent gradual reduction in daily Antarctic sea ice loss combined with the recent change to above average Arctic sea ice gain has resulted in Global Sea Ice Extent becoming 2nd lowest on the 4th Jan, and back to 1st lowest on the 5th by just 23k km2.
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Juan C. García

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #408 on: January 09, 2019, 02:58:05 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Global Sea Ice Extent.

January 8th, 2019:
     17,056,375 km2, a drop of -137,992 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.


We miss you Gerontocrat. Hope everything is fine!  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #409 on: January 09, 2019, 03:00:26 PM »
Quote
We miss you Gerontocrat. Hope everything is fine!

+1

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #410 on: January 09, 2019, 04:48:54 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Global Sea Ice Extent.

January 8th, 2019:
     17,056,375 km2, a drop of -137,992 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.


We miss you Gerontocrat. Hope everything is fine!  ;)
Hi, Juan.

Computer & Mobile phone died.
Sticking plaster and soothing words applied.
Data rescue underway. (Amazingly, back-up system seems to have worked).

With luck back in action tomorrow.

What to do when this clapped out old laptop finally dies is a question I am avoiding.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #411 on: January 10, 2019, 06:22:50 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 9 January 2019  17,027,437 km2

The continuing gradual reduction in daily Antarctic sea ice loss combined average to above average Arctic sea ice gain has resulted in Global Sea Ice Extent becoming 2nd lowest on the 4th Jan, and back to 1st lowest on the 5th by just 87k km2.

On average 37 days to minimum, with 78% of extent loss done, with an outcome from average remaining extent loss of a possible minimum of around 15 million km2, some 0.5 million km2 below the previous record low. BUT looking at the results from the previous 2 years, a more likely scenario, suggests a definite very low result, and maybe a 50-50 chance of a record low.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #412 on: January 10, 2019, 07:23:03 AM »
The attached graphs show how the rate of extent loss is associated with sea ice concentration (i.e. ratio of area to extent), and also the rate of change in Albedo Warming Potential.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #413 on: January 12, 2019, 10:35:00 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 11 January 2019  17,027,437 km2

The continuing gradual reduction in daily Antarctic sea ice loss combined with mostly average to above average Arctic sea ice gain has resulted in Global Sea Ice Extent becoming 2nd lowest by 187k km2 (compared with 2017).

On average 35 days to minimum, with 80% of extent loss done, with an outcome from average remaining extent loss of a possible minimum of around 15 million km2, some 0.5 million km2 below the previous record low. BUT looking at the results from the previous 2 years, a more likely scenario, suggests a definitely very low result, and maybe a 50-50 chance of a record low.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)