Global sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :-  21,574,429 km2（December 10, 2019）

On this day well above average Antarctic extent loss and by very low Arctic extent gains. resulted in an extreme extent loss.

- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 267 k, 128 k more than the last 10 years' average of 139 k,
- Extent loss to date 3.03 million km2, 0.22 million (8.0 %) more than the 10 year average of 2.80 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1.60 million km2 greater than 2016,
- 30.8 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 66 days to the average minimum date of 13 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still extremely early to take this seriously. Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 15.27 million km2, 0.28 million less than the record low in early 2018.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :-  21,230,602 km2（December 12, 2019）

On this day well above average Antarctic extent loss and low Arctic extent gains. resulted in an another large extent loss.

- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 202 k, 58 k more than the last 10 years' average of 143 k,
- Extent loss to date 3.37 million km2, 0.28 million (8.9 %) more than the 10 year average of 3.09 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1.61 million km2 greater than 2016,
- 34.0 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 64 days to the average minimum date of 13 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 15.22 million km2, 0.33 million less than the record low in early 2018.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :-   20,659,892 km2（December 16, 2019）


- 2019 is 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 143 k, 24 k less than the last 10 years' average of 167 k,
- Extent loss to date 3.94 million km2, 0.23 million (6.3 %) more than the 10 year average of 3.71 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1.57 million km2 greater than 2016,
- 40.7 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 60 days to the average minimum date of 13 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 15.26 million km2, 0.29 million less than the record low in early 2018.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :-    19,118,131 km2（December 26, 2019）


- 2019 is 4th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 64 k, 73 k less than the last 10 years' average of 137 k,
- Extent loss to date 5.48 million km2, 0.08 million (1.4 %) less than the 10 year average of 5.56 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1.36 million km2 greater than 2016,
- Extent is 1.01 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.03 million km2 greater than 2017,
- 61.0 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 50 days to the average minimum date of 13 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 15.57 million km2, 0.02 million more than the record low in early 2018.

At the moment Antarctic Sea Ice losses are below average, Arctic Sea Ice gains are above average.
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[Stephan]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :-    19,118,131 km2（December 26, 2019）


- 2019 is 4th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
[...]

One of the very few days in 2019 when Global Sea Ice Extent is not under the top three...

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :-  18,644,566 km2（December 30, 2019）

- 2019 is 4th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 125 k, 34 k less than the last 10 years' average of 159 k,
- Extent loss to date 5.96 million km2, 0.15 million (2.5 %) less than the 10 year average of 6.11 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 0.87 million km2 greater than 2016,
- Extent is 0.98 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.21 million km2 greater than 2017,
- 67.1 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 46 days to the average minimum date of 13 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 15.65 million km2, 0.09 million more than the record low in early 2018.

At the moment Antarctic Sea Ice losses are well below average, Arctic Sea Ice gains are also below average.
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[ArcticMelt2]

Jaxa data:

The average annual extent in 2019 in the Arctic is 2nd. Antarctica is also 2nd place.

Global extent - first place.

[gerontocrat]

If you spot something awry in the data - LET ME KNOW. Changeover of year gave some problems.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :-  18,441,357 km2（January 2, 2020）

- On this day extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 59 k, 70 k less than the last 10 years' average of 129 k,
- Extent loss to date 6.16 million km2, 0.38 million (5.8 %) less than the 10 year average of 6.54 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1.08 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.87 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.23 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.10 million km2 greater than 2006,

- 71.8% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 41 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 15.87 million km2, 0.32 million more than the record low in early 2018.

At the moment Antarctic Sea Ice losses are well below average, Arctic Sea Ice gains are a mixture
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :-  18,022,051 km2（January 7, 2020）

- On this day extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 122 k, 2 k more than the last 10 years' average of 120 k,
- Extent loss to date 6.58 million km2, 0.52 million (7.3 %) less than the 10 year average of 7.10 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 0.86 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.83 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.87 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.51 million km2 greater than 2006,

- 77.9% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 36 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.01 million km2, 0.46 million more than the record low in early 2018.

At the moment Antarctic Sea Ice losses are mostly well below average, Arctic Sea Ice gains are a mixture.
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[Stephan]

I compared the actual JAXA extent values with the averages (1980s to 2010s) and determined the time difference, when today's values had the same value as the averages of the various decades.

For Jan 09, 2020 the difference in the Arctic to the 2010s average was 0 days. In the Antarctic the difference was 4 days (sum: 4 days)
This difference is larger compared with previous decades:
Arctic Jan 09, 2020 vs. 2000s average 12 days, Antarctic 5 days (sum 17 days),
Arctic Jan 09, 2020 vs. 1990s average 23 days, Antarctic 4 days (sum 27 days),
Arctic Jan 09, 2020 vs. 1980s average 31 days, Antarctic 3 days (sum 34 days).

This difference had been larger in the last years on this date - at the moment neither the Arctic Sea Ice Extent nor the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is at record lows...

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  17,550,185  km2（January 11, 2020）

- On this day extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 103 k, 2 k less than the last 10 years' average of 105 k,
- Extent loss to date 6.58 million km2, 0.52 million (7.3 %) less than the 10 year average of 7.10 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 0.39 million km2 greater than 2006,
- Extent is 0.89 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.57 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.70 million km2 greater than 2019,

- 82.6% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 32 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 15.96 million km2, 0.41 million more than the record low in early 2018.

At the moment Antarctic Sea Ice losses are mostly well below average, Arctic Sea Ice gains are a mixture.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   17,321,478 km2（January 17, 2020）

Recently, mostly above average Arctic sea ice extent daily gains, and mostly below average Antarctic sea ice extent daily loss

- On this day extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 45 k, 49 k less than the last 10 years' average of 94 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.28 million km2, 0.77 million (9.6%) less than the 10 year average of 8.05 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 0.80 million km2 greater than 2006,
- Extent is 1.31 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.72 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.67 million km2 greater than 2019,

- 88.4% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 26 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.25 million km2, 0.70 million more than the record low in early 2018.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :    17,206,956 km2（January 20, 2020）

Recently, mostly above average Arctic sea ice extent daily gains, and mostly below average Antarctic sea ice extent daily loss

- On this day extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 61 k, 7 k less than the last 10 years' average of 68 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.31 million km2, 0.92 million (11.0%) less than the 10 year average of 8.31 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1.05 million km2 greater than 2006,
- Extent is 1.18 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.92 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.62 million km2 greater than 2019,

- 91.2% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 23 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.41 million km2, 0.86 million more than the record low in early 2018.
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[Stephan]

The season-typical decrease of Global Sea Ice Extent has stalled completely in the last days and increased from Jan 22 to Jan 23. It has almost matched the 2010s average and is only 0.76 M km² apart from the 2000s average. This is the smallest difference I have noticed since I started to watch global sea ice in 2016. Mainly the much less than average decrease in the last weeks on the Antarctic side has led to this situation.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT : 17,247,575 km2（January 23, 2020）

Recently, mostly above average Arctic sea ice extent daily gains, and mostly below average Antarctic sea ice extent daily loss

- On this day extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss gain on this day 37 k, 75 k different from the last 10 years' average loss of 38 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.35 million km2, 1.11 million (13.1%) less than the 10 year average of 8.46 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1.04 million km2 greater than 2006,
- Extent is 1.24 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.24 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.73 million km2 greater than 2019,

- 92.9% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 20 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.60 million km2, 1.05 million more than the record low in early 2018.
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[Rodius]

Are we going to have a year of recovery?

Or is that sinking feeling in my gut still right?

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  17,101,185 km2（January 23, 2020）

Recently, mostly above average Arctic sea ice extent daily gains, and mostly below average Antarctic sea ice extent daily loss

- On this day extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 68 k, 5 k less than the last 10 years' average loss of 63 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.50 million km2, 1.14 million (13.2%) less than the 10 year average of 8.64 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 0.95 million km2 greater than 2006,
- Extent is 1.40 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.30 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.60 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is just 3k km2 less than the 2010's average,

- 94.9% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 16 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.63 million km2, 1.08 million more than the record low in early 2018.
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[roger white]

So  nearing the winter minimum ice cover in the arctic is currently greater than in 2005 or 2006 & greater than most of the 2010's.

The decadal decline in global sea ice appears to be around 2.5% per decade since the satellite measurements began in 1979.

Noteworthy, but begs the question of whether 1979 was itself a low point from which to begin measuring?

[PragmaticAntithesis]

Are we going to have a year of recovery?

Or is that sinking feeling in my gut still right?

It's probably too early to call what the 2020 minimum will be. One thing is for certain though, any recovery will be temporary as the climate won't stop warming any time soon.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   17,090,240 km2 as at 31 January 2020

Recently, mostly above average Arctic sea ice extent daily gains, and mostly below average Antarctic sea ice extent daily loss leading to recent days of extent gain. It is therefore possible that minimum was reached on the 29 January at sea ice extent of 17,046,068 km2, i.e 2 weeks earlier than the average of the last 10 years.


- On this day extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent GAIN on this day 7k k, 23 k different from the last 10 years' average loss of 16 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.51 million km2, 1.25 million (14.3%) less than the 10 year average of 8.76 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 0.94 million km2 greater than 2006,
- Extent is 1.42 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.33 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.69 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.11 milion km2 greater than the 2010's average,

- 96.2% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 12 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.74 million km2, 1.14 million more than the record low in early 2018.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT : Possible minimum 29 January & January 2020 Averages

The table attached shows the comparison of previous years' minima with the current year if this year's minimum is the 29 Jan.

The graph attached shows the January Global sea ice averages and deviations from the linear trend.
It does show that the collapse in extent from 2015 to 2017 has been followed by a sort of recovery back to trend.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  16,943,034 km2 as at 3 February 2020

3 days ago, I wrote..
Recently, mostly above average Arctic sea ice extent daily gains, and mostly below average Antarctic sea ice extent daily loss leading to recent days of extent gain. It is therefore possible that minimum was reached on the 29 January at sea ice extent of 17,046,068 km2, i.e 2 weeks earlier than the average of the last 10 years.

I was wrong. In the last 3 days Arctic Sea Ice gain has stalled, and Antarctic Sea Ice loss a bit above average. Predictions are a mug's game.

- On this day extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent LOSS on this day 55 k, 35 k MORE THAN the last 10 years' average loss of 20 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.66 million km2, 1.15 million (13.1%) less than the 10 year average of 8.81 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 0.68 million km2 greater than 2006,
- Extent is 1.19 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.06 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.65 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is just 9 k km2 greater than the 2010's average,

- 96.7% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 9 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.64 million km2, 1.09 million more than the record low in early 2018.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   16,986,513 km2 as at 5 February 2020

As we get close to minimum, after a big increase, as is the case on this day, there is a possibility the minimum has already been reached. So maybe the extent of 16.92 million km2 on 4 Feb is the minimum. All depends on whether the recovery in Arctic Sea Ice and the very slow sea ice extent loss in the Antarctic continues.

- On this day extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent GAIN on this day 69 k, 112 k MORE THAN the last 10 years' average loss of 43 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.61 million km2, 1.28 million (14.3%) less than the 10 year average of 8.89 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 0.71 million km2 greater than 2006,
- Extent is 1.31 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.17 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.74 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.13 million km2 greater than the 2010's average,

- 97.6% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 7 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.77 million km2, 1.22 million more than the record low in early 2018.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  17,029,783 km2 as at 6 February 2020


As we get close to minimum, after big increases, as is the case on the last 2 days, there is an increasing possibility that the extent of 16.92 million km2 on 4 Feb is the minimum. All depends on whether the recovery in Arctic Sea Ice and the very slow sea ice extent loss in the Antarctic continues.

- On this day extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent GAIN on this day 43 k, 65 k MORE THAN the last 10 years' average loss of 22 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.57 million km2, 1.34 million (15.0%) less than the 10 year average of 8.91 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 0.77 million km2 greater than 2006,
- Extent is 1.33 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.31 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.72 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.20 million km2 greater than the 2010's average,

- 97.8% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 6 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.83 million km2, 1.28 million more than the record low in early 2018.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   17,031,051  km2 as at 6 February 2020


As we get close to minimum, after 2 big sea ice extent increases and a minimal increase on this day, there is an ever increasing possibility that the sea ice extent of 16.92 million km2 on 4 Feb is the minimum. All depends on whether the recovery in Arctic Sea Ice and the very slow sea ice extent loss in the Antarctic continues.

- On this day extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent GAIN on this day 1 k, 33 k MORE THAN the last 10 years' average LOSS of 32 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.57 million km2, 1.37 million (15.4%) less than the 10 year average of 8.94 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 0.78 million km2 greater than 2006,
- Extent is 1.32 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.41 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.71 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.23 million km2 greater than the 2010's average,

- 98.2% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 5 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.87 million km2, 1.32 million more than the record low in early 2018 of 15.55 million km2.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   16,976,727 km2 as at 10 February 2020

As we get close to minimum, after a couple of big sea ice extent increases and a series of minimal decreases in recent days, there is an ever increasing possibility that the sea ice extent of 16.92 million km2 on 4 Feb is the minimum. All depends on whether the recovery in Arctic Sea Ice and the very slow sea ice extent loss in the Antarctic continues.

- On this day extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 30 k, 9 k MORE THAN the last 10 years' average LOSS of 21 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.62 million km2, 1.36 million (15.1%) less than the 10 year average of 8.98 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 0.68 million km2 greater than 2006,
- Extent is 1.35 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.41 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.58 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.21 million km2 greater than the 2010's average,

- 98.9% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 2 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.88 million km2, 1.33 million more than the record low in early 2018 of 15.55 million km2.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :    16,945,818 km2 as at 11 February 2020

As we get so close to minimum, there is an ever increasing possibility that the sea ice extent of 16.92 million km2 on 4 Feb is the minimum. All depends on whether the 2 days of losses in Arctic Sea Ice continues and the very slow sea ice extent loss in the Antarctic do not switch to gains.

- On this day extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 31 k, 9 k MORE THAN the last 10 years' average loss of 22 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.65 million km2, 1.35 million (15.0%) less than the 10 year average of 9.00 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1.36 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.34 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.55 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.21 million km2 greater than the 2010's average,

- 90.2% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 1 day to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.88 million km2, 1.32 million more than the record low in early 2018 of 15.55 million km2. However, this late in the Antarctic melting and Arctic freezing season its anybody's guess.

Thus the first table attached - projections - becomes pretty much valueless
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[nanning]

^^
Last sentence: I think you meant 'early in the melting season'.
With such a large extent and low volume it will be an interesting melting season I think.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :    16,945,818 km2 as at 11 February 2020

The perils of Projections


The graph attached shows why projections of the minimum are just a crap-shoot.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   16,884,000  k2 as at 12 February 2020


I wrote yesterday "As we get so close to minimum, there is an ever increasing possibility that the sea ice extent of 16.92 million km2 on 4 Feb is the minimum.".  Whereupon the 2 days of losses in Arctic Sea Ice is followed by a 52k loss, and thus despite the very slow sea ice extent loss in the Antarctic there is a new seasonal low of 16.88 million km2.

- On this day extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 62 k, 58 k MORE THAN the last 10 years' average loss of 4 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.72 million km2, 1.29 million (14.3%) less than the 10 year average of 9.01 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1.26 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.30 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.48 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.15 million km2 greater than the 2010's average,

- 99.4% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 0 - zero days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.83 million km2, 1.28 million more than the record low in early 2018 of 15.55 million km2. However, this late in the Antarctic melting and Arctic freezing season it's anybody's guess.

Thus the first table attached - projections - becomes pretty much valueless, though you can see in which years the melting season was done.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :    16,833,258 km2 as at 13 February 2020


One day after the average date of minimum, a strong daily loss.

- On this day extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 51 k, 70 k MORE THAN the last 10 years' average GAIN of 19 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.72 million km2, 1.29 million (14.3%) less than the 10 year average of 9.01 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1.17 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.23 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.38 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.08 million km2 greater than the 2010's average,

- 100% of the average ice loss of the season done, one day afer the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.78 million km2, 1.23 million more than the record low in early 2018 of 15.55 million km2. However, it's anybody's guess.

Thus the first table attached - projections - becomes pretty much valueless, though you can see in which years the melting season is over.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  16,827,012 km2 as at 14 February 2020


One day after the average date of minimum, a strong daily loss.

- On this day extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 6 k, 32 k MORE THAN the last 10 years' average GAIN of 26 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.77 million km2, 1.19 million (13.3%) less than the 10 year average of 8.96 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1.05 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.19 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.28 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.04 million km2 greater than the 2010's average,

- 100% of the average ice loss of the season done, 2 days after the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.78 million km2, 1.23 million more than the record low in early 2018 of 15.55 million km2. However, it's anybody's guess.

Thus the first table attached - projections - becomes pretty much valueless, though you can see in which years the melting season is over.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   16,862,867 km2 as at 15 February 2020


2 days after the average date of minimum, a strong daily gain. Maybe 14th Feb was the minimum, maybe not.

- On this day extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain on this day 36 k, 13 k more than the last 10 years' average GAIN of 23 k,
- Extent is 0.96 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.21 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.34 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.58 million km2 greater than the 2010's average,

- 100% of the average ice loss of the season done, 2 days after the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Just waiting for the minimum. The first table attached - projections - has  use in that you can see in which years the melting season is over.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  16,807,111 km2 as at 16 February 2020

4 days after the average date of minimum, a strong daily sea ice extent loss. Now maybe the 16th Feb is the minimum. Then again, maybe not.

- On this day extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss (-ve gain) on this day 56 k, 59 k less than the last 10 years' average GAIN of 3 k,
- Extent is 0.87 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.15 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.32 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.001 million km2 less than the 2010's average,

- 100% of the average ice loss of the season done, 4 days after the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Just waiting for the minimum. The first table attached - projections - has  use in that you can see in which years the melting season is over i.e. most years.
____________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   16,750,273 km2 as at 17 February 2020

5 days after the average date of minimum, yet another strong daily sea ice extent loss. Now maybe the 17th Feb is the minimum. Then again, maybe not.

- On this day extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss (-ve gain) on this day 57 k, 37 k more than the last 10 years' average LOSS of 20 k,
- Extent is 0.80 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.12 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.25 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.04 million km2 less than the 2010's average,

- 100% of the average ice loss of the season done, 5 days after the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Just waiting for the minimum. The first table attached - projections - has  use in that you can see in which years the melting season is over i.e. most years.
____________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  16,719,417 km2 as at 18 February 2020

5 days after the average date of minimum, yet another daily sea ice extent loss. Now maybe the 18th Feb is the minimum. Then again, maybe not.

- On this day extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss (-ve gain) on this day 31 k, 26 k more than the last 10 years' average LOSS of 5 k,
- Extent is 0.79 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.08 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.18 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.06 million km2 less than the 2010's average,

- 100% of the average ice loss of the season done, 6 days after the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Just waiting for the minimum. The first table attached - projections - has  use in that you can see in which years the melting season is over i.e. most years.
____________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  16,743,870 km2 as at 19 February 2020

7 days after the average date of minimum, a daily sea ice extent GAIN. Now maybe the 18th Feb is the minimum (16.72 million km2). Then again, maybe not.

- On this day extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain on this day 24 k, 12 k more than the last 10 years' average gain of 12 k,
- Extent is 0.77 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.10 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.20 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.05 million km2 less than the 2010's average,

- 100% of the average ice loss of the season done, 7 days after the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Just waiting for the minimum. The first table attached - projections - has  use in that you can see in which years the melting season is over i.e. most years.
____________________________________________________________________

[psymmo7]

7 days after the average date of minimum, a daily sea ice extent GAIN. Now maybe the 17th Feb is the minimum (16.72 million km2). Then again, maybe not.
Correction ? - Surely extent was 16.72 yesterday (18th) not the 17th?

[gerontocrat]

7 days after the average date of minimum, a daily sea ice extent GAIN. Now maybe the 17th Feb is the minimum (16.72 million km2). Then again, maybe not.
Correction ? - Surely extent was 16.72 yesterday (18th) not the 17th?

Yep - corrected. Should not be half-asleep when I do this stuff.

But then it would never be done.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  16,873,079 km2 as at 20 February 2020

8 days after the average date of minimum, a second and massive daily sea ice extent GAIN of 129 k. Now very likely that the 18th Feb is the minimum (16.72 million km2). Then again, possibly not.

- On this day extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain on this day 129 k, 112 k more than the last 10 years' average gain of 17 k,
- Extent is 0.90 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.16 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.29 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.06 million km2 more than the 2010's average,

- 100% of the average ice loss of the season done, 8 days after the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Just waiting for the minimum to be confirmed (one more day of extent gains would do it). The first table attached - projections - has  use in that you can see in which years the melting season is over, i.e. most years.
____________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   17,011,212  km2 as at 23 February 2020

11 days after the average date of minimum, I am assuming that the 18th Feb is the minimum (16.72 million km2). Then again, possibly not.

But today only time to post the graphs & tables.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   16,898,096 km2 as at 25 February 2020


- On this day extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 42 k, 64 k less than the last 10 years' average gain of 22 k,
- Extent is 0.96 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.96 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.44 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.07 million km2 LESS than the 2010's average,

- 4% of the average ice GAIN of the season done, 253 days to the average maximum date of 4 November.

The Perils of Projections

Average sea ice extent gain would produce a maximum of 25.12 million km2, 1.36 million km2 above the record low maximum of 23.76 million km2 in 2016.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :    17,326,662 km2 as at 3 March 2020


- On this day extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain on this day 0.61 million km2, 0.004 million km2 less than the last 10 years' average gain of 0.61 million km2,
- Extent is 1.35 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.10 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.75 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.11 million km2 MORE than the 2010's average,

- 7.3% of the average ice GAIN of the season done, 246 days to the average maximum date of 4 November.

The Perils of Projections

Average sea ice extent gain would produce a maximum of 24.99 million km2, 1.23 million km2 above the record low maximum of 23.76 million km2 in 2016.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   17,599,182 km2 as at 7 March 2020

In recent days large Arctic sea ice extent losses have been more than matched by even larger Antarctic sea ice extent gains.

- On this day extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain to date 0.88 million km2, 0.01 million km2 (1.4%) more than the last 10 years' average gain of 0.87 million km2,
- Extent is 1.49 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.24 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.86 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.13 million km2 MORE than the 2010's average,

- 10.6% of the average ice GAIN of the season done, 242 days to the average maximum date of 4 November.

The Perils of Projections

Average sea ice extent gain would produce a maximum of 24.89 million km2, 1.13 million km2 above the record low maximum of 23.76 million km2 in 2016.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  17,911,671 km2 as at 11 March 2020

Fairly average overall change in the last 4 days.

- On this day extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain to date 1.19 million km2, 0.02 million km2 (1.5%) more than the last 10 years' average gain of 1.17 million km2,
- Extent is 1.65 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.01 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.83 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.15 million km2 MORE than the 2010's average,

- 14.9% of the average ice GAIN of the season done, 238 days to the average maximum date of 4 November.

The Perils of Projections

Average sea ice extent gain would produce a maximum of 24.95 million km2, 1.19 million km2 above the record low maximum of 23.76 million km2 in 2016.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT : Some more graphs

A look at the plume of projections

A Look at the February Monthly average - an uptick and 231 k above the monthly trend.

And the 365 day average is significantly on the up.

[Pmt111500]

Thanks again for the tireless updates. The last graph could perhaps use some pointers to various effects from both north and south but these would increase the workload by quite a lot so better left for the actual scientists to figure those influences out.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  17,911,671 km2 as at 11 March 2020


NB. There s a major error in recent postings in table JAXA-AA1- projections of the maximum.
It was picking up the wrong year to calculate the projected maximum- causing an up to 1 million km2 under-estimate.
Sorry about that - too many spreadsheets and so many little changes from the 29 days in Feb is my only excuse.

Since the minimum extent gain has been more above than below average, mostly down to above average increases in Antarctic sea ice while Arctic sea ice dithered around the maximum.

- On this day extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain to date 1.48 million km2, 0.03 million km2 (2.1%) more than the last 10 years' average gain of 1.45 million km2,
- Extent is 1.74 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.01 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.95 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.19 million km2 MORE than the 2010's average,

- 19% of the average ice GAIN of the season done, 235 days to the average maximum date of 4 November.

The Perils of Projections

Average sea ice extent gain would produce a maximum of 25.82 million km2, 2.06 million km2 above the record low maximum of 23.76 million km2 in 2016.

This is all about a major change in the Antarctic. I may be throwing out a speculation about this later on.

[Stephan]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  17,911,671 km2 as at 11 March 2020

NB. There s a major error in recent postings in table JAXA-AA1- projections of the maximum.
It was picking up the wrong year to calculate the projected maximum- causing an up to 1 million km2 under-estimate.
Sorry about that - too many spreadsheets and so many little changes from the 29 days in Feb is my only excuse.

Hi gerontocrat,
please don't worry at all - everybody sometimes makes a mistake. I think we all appreciate your continuous effort on bookkeeping the actual data. Every day I look forward to checking your updates in the three "area&extent" threads.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   18,457,330 km2 as at 20 March 2020

Since the last posting, Arctic Sea Ice loss has been somewhat above average & Antarctic sea ice gain around average. As a result Global sea ice gain since the minimum is now marginally below average.

- On this day extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain to date 1.74 million km2, 0.08 million km2 (4.5%) less than the last 10 years' average gain of 1.82 million km2,
- Extent is 1.92 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.90 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 1.15 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.10 million km2 MORE than the 2010's average,

- 25% of the average ice GAIN of the season done, 229 days to the average maximum date of 4 November.

The Perils of Projections

Average sea ice extent gain would produce a maximum of 25.72 million km2, 1.96 million km2 above the record low maximum of 23.76 million km2 in 2016.