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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #800 on: June 25, 2020, 10:08:25 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,489,297 KM2 as at 24-Jun-2020

An above average daily Arctic sea ice extent loss + a below average daily Antarctic sea ice gain = a Global Sea Ice extent loss on this day.

- Extent gain LOSS on this day 34k, 36 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 2k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.77 million km2, 0.74 million km2, 9.8% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.51 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.79 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 82.1% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 133 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.12 million km2, 1.36 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
However, before that there is also the false maximum rapidly approaching in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #801 on: June 26, 2020, 08:58:59 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,450,202 KM2 as at 25-Jun-2020

An above average daily Arctic sea ice extent loss + a below average daily Antarctic sea ice gain = a Global Sea Ice extent loss for a second day.

- Extent gain LOSS on this day 39k, 55 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 16k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.73 million km2, 0.79 million km2, 10.5% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.52 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.70 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 82.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 132 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.07 million km2, 1.31 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
However, before that there is also the false maximum rapidly approaching in late June – i.e. NOW, or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #802 on: June 26, 2020, 09:02:14 AM »
Just a reminder why predictions are a mug's game when it comes to Global Sea Ice...
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #803 on: June 30, 2020, 11:03:34 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,497,405 KM2 as at 29-Jun-2020

An above average daily Arctic sea ice extent loss + a below average daily Antarctic sea ice gain = a LARGE Global Sea Ice extent loss on this day.

As a result we may have already reached the false maximum of late June  or early July, followed by up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

___________________________________________________
- Extent loss on this day 75k, 75 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 0k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.78 million km2, 0.77 million km2, 10.2% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.54 million km2.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.73 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 82.4% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 128 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.11 million km2, 1.34 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #804 on: July 01, 2020, 10:09:14 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,403,485 KM2 as at 30-Jun-2020

Given 2 days of very high extent LOSSES, the chance that we have already reached the false maximum of late June  or early July are significantly increased. Next will be up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.
___________________________________________________
- Extent loss on this day 94k, 94 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 0k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.68 million km2, 0.87 million km2, 11.5% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.55 million km2.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.65 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 82.4% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 127 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.01 million km2, 1.25 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #805 on: July 01, 2020, 10:30:13 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT: June Monthly Average 23.145 million km2.

This is 976k more than the 2019 average of 23.169 million km2.
But this is 289k less than the linear trend, more than 5 years annual trend reduction. R2 value is a somewhat less than impressive 0.50, reflecting the more or less random (or unknown) nature of long-term annual changes in Antarctic sea ice extent.

GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT PLUME - showing projections to the maximum using remaining sea ice extent gain for the last 10 years. Perhaps a lesson in the futility of predicting the maximum, given the 2.5 million range of outcomes?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #806 on: July 02, 2020, 09:37:03 PM »
I compared the actual JAXA sea ice extent of July 1, 2020 with the averages of the past decades.
In the Arctic the same value was achieved on average in the
2010s:   4.7. (+   3 d later)
2000s: 13.7. (+ 12 d later)
1990s: 22.7. (+ 21 d later)
1980s:   1.8. (+ 31 d later)
In the Antarctic the same value was achieved on average in the
2010s: 27.6. (+ 4 d earlier)
2000s: 25.6. (+ 6 d earlier)
1990s: 28.6. (+ 3 d earlier)
1980s: 29.6. (+ 2 d earlier)
Summarized this means more insolation in the Arctic respectively more freezing heat to be released around Antarctica in comparison to the earlier decades:
2010s:   +   7 days
2000s:   + 18 days
1990s:   + 24 days
1980s:   + 33 days,
where the changes are large in the Arctic and probably negligible in the seas around Antarctica.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #807 on: July 03, 2020, 12:46:03 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,359,637 KM2 as at 02-Jul-2020

We probably have already reached the false maximum of late June  or early July, followed by up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.
___________________________________________________
- Extent loss on this day 13k, 9 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 22k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.64 million km2, 0.89 million km2, 11.9% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.54 million km2.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.68 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 82.2% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 125 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.00 million km2, 1.23 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #808 on: July 07, 2020, 10:55:16 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,268,020 KM2 as at 06-Jul-2020

We have probably past the false maximum of late June  or early July, especially after the extreme extent loss on this day. However, note how 2019 flattered to deceive.
We should see  up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

___________________________________________________
- Extent loss on this day 137k, 147 k different from the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 10k (after this day consistent average extent losses for some time),
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.55 million km2, 0.99 million km2, 13.2% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.54 million km2.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.53 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 82.2% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 121 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.90 million km2, 1.14 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #809 on: July 08, 2020, 02:04:46 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,158,084 KM2 as at 07-Jul-2020

A 2nd day of very high Arctic extent loss and low Antarctic extent gain makes it almost a certainty that the false maximum was reached on the 28th June. Now follows up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.
___________________________________________________
- Extent loss on this day 110k, 102 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 8k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.44 million km2, 1.10 million km2, 14.6% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.54 million km2.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.46 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 82.1% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 120 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.80 million km2, 1.04 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on this day – the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #810 on: July 12, 2020, 11:00:25 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,932,955 KM2 as at 11-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 89k, 69 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 20k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.21 million km2, 1.23 million km2, 16.5% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.44 million km2.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.26 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 81.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 116 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.68 million km2, 0.92 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now in up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
In the last few days above average Arctic sea ice extent losses and mostly below average Antarctic sea ice gains have resulted in large Global sea ice reductions.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click once for full-size images
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #811 on: July 14, 2020, 08:11:37 AM »
I compared the actual JAXA sea ice extent of July 13, 2020 with the averages of the past decades.
In the Arctic the same value was achieved on average in the
2010s: 20.7. (+   7 d later)
2000s: 31.7. (+ 18 d later)
1990s: 14.8. (+ 32 d later)
1980s:   5.9. (+ 54 d later)
In the Antarctic the same value was achieved on average in the
2010s:   8.7. (+ 5 d earlier)
2000s:   7.7. (+ 6 d earlier)
1990s: 10.7. (+ 3 d earlier)
1980s: 11.7. (+ 2 d earlier)
Summarized this means more insolation in the Arctic respectively more freezing heat to be released around Antarctica in comparison to the earlier decades:
2010s:   + 12 days
2000s:   + 24 days
1990s:   + 35 days
1980s:   + 56 days,
where the changes are large in the Arctic and probably negligible in the seas around Antarctica.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #812 on: July 14, 2020, 09:45:50 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,796,696 KM2 as at 13-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 87k, 54 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 33k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.08 million km2, 1.30 million km2, 17.6% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.37 million km2.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.07 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 80.4% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 114 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.59 million km2, 0.83 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now in up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
The last 9 days of mostly well above average Arctic sea ice extent losses and mostly below average Antarctic sea ice gains have resulted in extreme Global sea ice reduction.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click once for full-size images
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #813 on: July 15, 2020, 08:42:08 AM »
For the first time this year 2020 is the lowest on record (according to JAXA). All values in M km². The "top four list" is:
2020 - 22.68
2017 - 22.70
2019 - 22.79
2011 - 22.84
The huge drop of 184.000 km² in the Arctic and a slightly less than average increase around Antarctica of 70.000 km² made that possible.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #814 on: July 15, 2020, 01:54:05 PM »
And here is some more data to back up Stephan's post...

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,680,935 KM2 as at 14-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 116k, 66 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 50k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.96 million km2, 1.34 million km2, 18.4% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.31 million km2.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  -0.11 million km2 LESS than 2019,
On average 79.9% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 113 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.52 million km2, 0.76 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now in up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
In the last few days above average Arctic sea ice extent losses and mostly below average Antarctic sea ice gains have resulted in large Global sea ice reduction.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click once for full-size images
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #815 on: July 16, 2020, 08:56:54 AM »
An evaluation like I did on July 14 (reply #811) is no longer possible. The massive losses in the Arctic now created a sea ice extent which is lower than the average 1980s minimum early September.  :-[
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #816 on: July 16, 2020, 10:44:17 AM »
Yet another day of very high Arctic extent loss and low Antarctic ice extent gain.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,555,201 KM2 as at 15-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 126k, 109 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 17k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.84 million km2, 1.45 million km2, 19.9% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.28 million km2.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record for a second day this year,
- 2020 Extent is  -0.35 million km2 LESS than 2019,
On average 79.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 112 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.41 million km2, 0.65 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now in up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
In the last few days above average Arctic sea ice extent losses and mostly below average Antarctic sea ice gains have resulted in large Global sea ice reduction.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click once for full-size images
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

blumenkraft

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #817 on: July 16, 2020, 06:50:04 PM »
It has taken a lot of time and energy, successes and failures to build a library of spreadsheets and data sources. So it is a bit annoying to think people have to wade through a load of clutter to reach the data.

This is a data thread. So, please please please bring data or a new way of looking at the data (when discussion is great).
« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 07:43:25 PM by oren »

igs

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #818 on: July 16, 2020, 07:36:38 PM »
Ok, i was aware but remember him to say recently that one brief excursion in direct reply would be ok, nevertheless i'm fine with removal or moving to appropriate thread if that's how it has to be.

<These days of high readership one brief excursion becomes a long diversion, so best to avoid completely. Thanks for the understanding. I often don't find proper destinations, so some I just remove. O>
« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 07:45:41 PM by oren »

Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #819 on: July 17, 2020, 08:10:11 AM »
For the first time since Oct 26, 2019 the difference between the actual value and the 2000s average exceeds 2.3 M km². A massive loss yesterday in the Arctic and a constant value in the Antarctic increased that difference. 2020 is still #1 in the list.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #820 on: July 17, 2020, 11:31:03 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,407,832 KM2 as at 16-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 147k, 133 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 14k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.69 million km2, 1.57 million km2, 21.7% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.26 million km2.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record for the 3rd day,
- 2020 Extent is  -0.57 million km2 LESS than 2019,
On average 79.5% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 111 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.28 million km2, 0.52 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now in up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
In the last few days above average Arctic sea ice extent losses and mostly below average Antarctic sea ice gains have resulted in very large Global sea ice reduction.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #821 on: July 18, 2020, 07:31:15 AM »
For the first time since Oct 26, 2019 the difference between the actual value and the 2000s average exceeds 2.3 M km². A massive loss yesterday in the Arctic and a constant value in the Antarctic increased that difference. 2020 is still #1 in the list.
The difference between 2020 and the 2000s average has increased to 2.43 M km², a value that was not observed since Oct 25, 2019.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #822 on: July 18, 2020, 02:04:04 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,277,430 KM2 as at 17-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 130k, 89 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.56 million km2, 1.66 million km2, 23.0% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.21 million km2.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  -0.71 million km2 LESS than 2019,
On average 79.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 110 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.19 million km2, 0.43 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now in up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
In the last few days above average Arctic sea ice extent losses and increasingly below average Antarctic** sea ice gains have resulted in large Global sea ice reduction.
___________________________________________________
Antarctic sea ice** extent has dropped from 16th lowest to 3rd lowest in 8 days.
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #823 on: July 19, 2020, 10:14:45 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,189,214 KM2 as at 18-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 88k, 78 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 10k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.47 million km2, 1.74 million km2, 24.2% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.21 million km2.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record, for 5 days this year
- 2020 Extent is  -0.72 million km2 LESS than 2019,
On average 78.9% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 109 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.11 million km2, 0.35 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now in up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
In the last few days above average Arctic sea ice extent losses and mostly well below average Antarctic sea ice gains have resulted in large Global sea ice reduction.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #824 on: July 20, 2020, 12:38:50 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,220,953 KM2 as at 19-Jul-2020

- Extent GAIN on this day 32k, 45 k less than the average LOSS on this day (of the last 10 years) of 13k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.50 million km2, 1.71 million km2, 23.7% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.21 million km2.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record, for 6 days this year
- 2020 Extent is  -0.53 million km2 LESS than 2019,
On average 78.8% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 108 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.16 million km2, 0.40 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now in up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #825 on: July 23, 2020, 11:31:14 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,108,929 KM2 as at 22-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 79k, 69 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 10k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.39 million km2, 1.78 million km2, 24.9% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.17 million km2.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record, for 9 days this year
- 2020 Extent is  -0.37 million km2 LESS than 2019,
On average 78.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 105 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.10 million km2, 0.33 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now in up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Average extent losses from now during this period to the false minimum seem to almost guarantee a new record low false minimum
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #826 on: July 23, 2020, 09:32:34 PM »
...a red line on a previously untouched region of this graph...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

glennbuck

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #827 on: July 23, 2020, 09:51:37 PM »
 :o


glennbuck

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #828 on: July 23, 2020, 09:53:12 PM »
 :o

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #829 on: July 28, 2020, 11:51:31 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,273,571 KM2 as at 27-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 3k, 15 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 18k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.55 million km2, 1.58 million km2, 22.1% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.13 million km2.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record, for 14 days this year
- 2020 Extent is  -0.15 million km2 LESS than 2019,
On average 78.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 100 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.28 million km2, 0.52 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now in up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Despite mostly below average Antarctic sea ice gains in the last few days, very low Arctic sea ice losses has meant that Global sea ice extent has mostly risen, not fallen, on these days.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #830 on: August 01, 2020, 01:03:50 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,383,682 KM2 as at 31-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 93k, 100 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 7k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.66 million km2, 1.42 million km2, 20.1% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.09 million km2.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record, for 0 days this year
- 2020 Extent is  0.01 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 77.6% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 96 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.43 million km2, 0.67 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now in up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
We are supposed to be well within the temporary period of extent losses, but in the last week or so more above than below Antarctic sea ice gains, and very low Arctic sea ice losses has reversed ths. As a result extent has risen, and extent is no longer at No #1
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #831 on: August 01, 2020, 01:39:21 PM »
I attach the July Monthly Average of JAXA Global sea ice extent.

At 22.656 million km2, it is just 12k above the record low of 2019, and 898k above 2016. However, by the end of August 2016 has started to crash towards its record low maximum in November.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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blumenkraft

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #832 on: August 01, 2020, 04:44:37 PM »
Another deep red month.

Click to enlarge.

Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #833 on: August 08, 2020, 07:36:30 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as of August 07, 2020.
2020 is still #1 in the list, but only by a smidgeon. Lower than average decreases in the Arctic and higher than average gains in the Antarctic in the last days.

All values in M km².
2020: 22.35
2019: 22.38
2017: 22.49
2018: 22.84
2007: 22.84
2016: 22.90
2012: 23.00
2011: 23.36
2002: 23.37 (interpolated)
2010s: 23.40
2015: 23.59
2000s: 24.38
1990s: 25.06
1980s: 25.69
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

glennbuck

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #834 on: August 08, 2020, 02:31:35 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as of August 07, 2020.
2020 is still #1 in the list, but only by a smidgeon. Lower than average decreases in the Arctic and higher than average gains in the Antarctic in the last days.


The 2m average Temperature Anomaly has been -3.5C TO -4.5C in the Antarctic for days!

Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #835 on: August 10, 2020, 07:41:46 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as of August 09, 2020.
2020 now is #3 in the list. At average decreases in the Arctic and much higher than average gains in the Antarctic in the last days have forced 2020 to lose its pole position.

All values in M km².
2017: 22.32
2019: 22.35
2020: 22.50
2012: 22.74
2018: 22.78
2007: 22.88
2016: 23.06
2011: 23.24
2002: 23.36
2010s: 23.37
2015: 23.50
2000s: 24.27
1990s: 25.07
1980s: 25.64
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #836 on: August 13, 2020, 09:20:11 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as of August 12, 2020.
2020 now is #4 in the list. At average decreases in the Arctic and much higher than average gains in the Antarctic in the last days have forced 2020 to lose one further position.

All values in M km².
2019: 22.13
2017: 22.31
2018: 22.59
2020: 22.63
2012: 22.69
2007: 22.71
2016: 23.07
2015: 23.15
2011: 23.22
2010s: 23.26
2002: 23.39
2000s: 24.22
1990s: 25.05
1980s: 25.63
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #837 on: August 15, 2020, 02:41:47 PM »
First postings using my shiny new computer thanks to a lot of people on the ASIF.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,691,401 KM2 as at 14-Aug-2020

- Extent gain on this day 19k, 18 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 1k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.97 million km2, 0.75 million km2, 11.2% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.72 million km2.
- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.63 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 73.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 82 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.08 million km2, 1.32 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We should now be in up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
We are supposed to be well within the temporary period of extent losses, but since late July more above than below Antarctic sea ice gains, and very low Arctic sea ice losses has reversed this. As a result extent has risen, and extent has dropped from lowest in the satellite record to 6th lowest in the last week.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #838 on: August 18, 2020, 02:06:29 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,451,722 KM2 as at 17-Aug-2020

- Extent loss on this day 37k, 13 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.73 million km2, 0.90 million km2, 13.5% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.63 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.42 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 72.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 79 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.94 million km2, 1.18 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We should now be in up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
We are supposed to be well within the temporary period of extent losses, but since late July more above than below Antarctic sea ice gains, and very low Arctic sea ice losses reversed this up to the 14th August.. In the last 3 days extent losses have resumed.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #839 on: August 20, 2020, 12:48:53 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,389,388 KM2 as at 19-Aug-2020

- Extent loss on this day 64k, 29 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 35k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.67 million km2, 0.91 million km2, 13.8% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.58 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.42 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 72.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 77 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.94 million km2, 1.18 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We should now be in up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
We are supposed to be well within the temporary period of extent losses, but since late July more above than below Antarctic sea ice gains, and very low Arctic sea ice losses reversed this up to the 14th August.. In 4 of the last 5 days extent losses have resumed due mainly to resumed high Arctic sea ice extent losses. Extent remains at 5th lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click each image for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #840 on: August 20, 2020, 12:58:16 PM »
Global Sea Ice Plume just to show how remarkable 2016 was.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #841 on: August 22, 2020, 12:39:54 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,305,764 KM2 as at 21-Aug-2020

- Extent loss on this day 75k, 77 k different from the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 2k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.59 million km2, 0.96 million km2, 14.6% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.54 million km2.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.30 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 71.8% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 75 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.87 million km2, 1.11 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We should now be the period of extent losses up to the false minimum of late August/ early September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
We are supposed to be well within the temporary period of extent losses, but since late July more above than below Antarctic sea ice gains, and very low Arctic sea ice losses reversed this up to the 14th August.. Since then extent losses have resumed mainly due to very high Arctic extent losses.

As a result global sea ice extent is now 4th lowest, down from 6th lowest on the 14th August.

___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
« Last Edit: August 22, 2020, 12:44:57 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #842 on: August 23, 2020, 01:22:21 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,253,250 KM2 as at 22-Aug-2020

- Extent loss on this day 53k, 56 k different from the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 3k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.53 million km2, 1.01 million km2, 15.5% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.55 million km2.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.25 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 71.9% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 74 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.82 million km2, 1.06 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We should now be the period of extent losses up to the false minimum of late August/ early September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
We are supposed to be well within the temporary period of extent losses, but since late July more above than below Antarctic sea ice gains, and very low Arctic sea ice losses reversed this up to the 14th August.. Since then extent losses have resumed mainly due to very high Arctic extent losses.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #843 on: August 25, 2020, 02:43:08 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,341,976 KM2 as at 24-Aug-2020

- Extent gain on this day 94k, 130 k different from the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 36k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.62 million km2, 0.87 million km2, 13.5% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.50 million km2.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.21 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 71.4% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 72 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.95 million km2, 1.19 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now in the period of extent losses up to the false minimum of late August/ early September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Although we are in the temporary period of extent losses,  once again this day sees a large extent gain – due to a very large Antarctic sea ice gain and a below average Arctic sea ice extent loss.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #844 on: August 27, 2020, 11:52:44 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,356,728 KM2 as at 26-Aug-2020

- Extent gain on this day 16k, 37 k different from the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.64 million km2, 0.83 million km2, 12.8% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.46 million km2.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.12 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 71.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 70 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.99 million km2, 1.23 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now in the period of extent losses up to the false minimum of late August/ early September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.

Although we are in the temporary period of extent losses,  once again this day sees an extent gain – due to an above average Antarctic sea ice gain and a below average Arctic sea ice extent loss.

Despite this, Global sea ice is down to 3rd lowest from 4th lowest in the satellte record.

_________________________________________________________
click images for full size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #845 on: August 29, 2020, 10:58:14 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,474,218 KM2 as at 28-Aug-2020

- Extent gain on this day 36k, 40 k different from the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 4k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.75 million km2, 0.67 million km2, 10.4% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.42 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.23 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 70.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 68 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.14 million km2, 1.38 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now in the period of extent losses up to the false minimum of late August/ early September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Although we are in the temporary period of extent losses,  once again this day sees a large extent gain – due to yet another large Antarctic sea ice gain and a close to average Arctic sea ice extent loss.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #846 on: August 31, 2020, 10:57:35 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,458,694 KM2 as at 30-Aug-2020

- Extent loss on this day 25k, 18 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 7k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.74 million km2, 0.69 million km2, 10.7% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.42 million km2.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.20 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 70.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 66 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.12 million km2, 1.36 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now in the period of extent losses up to the false minimum of late August/ early September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
After a long period of extent gains in contrast to nomal extent losses, on this day an above average extent loss.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #847 on: September 01, 2020, 01:49:54 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,365,440 KM2 as at 31-Aug-2020

- Extent loss on this day 93k, 52 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.65 million km2, 0.73 million km2, 11.5% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.38 million km2.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.14 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 70.2% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 65 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.07 million km2, 1.31 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now almost at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of (on average)  early September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
After a long period of extent gains in contrast to nomal extent losses, on this day an above average extent loss for a second day. (An unusual Antarctic sea ice extent loss plus an above average Arctic extent loss)
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #848 on: September 01, 2020, 02:00:53 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent - a bit more

I show the graph of extent for the whole year to show better where we are in the procession to the Oct/Nov maximum.

Also attached is the plume of projected outcomes for the maximum from the last 10 years remaining extent gains. You can see clearly when 2016 becomes the outlier.

Also attached is the August Monthly Averages graph. Although the 2020 avearge is well above that of 2019, at 22.43 million km2, extent is 375k below the linear trend value, equivalent to more than 4 years of annual extent reduction.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #849 on: September 02, 2020, 10:04:21 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,263,238 KM2 as at 01-Sep-2020

- Extent loss on this day 102k, 81 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.54 million km2, 0.80 million km2, 12.6% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.35 million km2.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  -0.03 million km2 LESS than 2019,
On average 69.9% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 64 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.99 million km2, 1.23 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now almost at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of (on average)  early September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
After a long period of extent gains in contrast to nomal extent losses, on this day an above average extent loss for a third day. This is again due to an unusual Antarctic sea ice extent loss and an above average Arctic sea ice extent loss.

As a result Global Sea Ice Extent is now 3rd lowest in the satellite record, 4th on the previous day.

___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)