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gerontocrat

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #50 on: September 20, 2017, 02:45:20 PM »
JAXA Data

Oct/Nov maximum in recent years is as follows:-
      2013                2014                 2015                2016
 27,036,458     27,008,379     26,077,710     23,635,821 km2

In recent days Arctic flat, Antarctic declines even though Antarctic SST and temp anomalies are, if anything, -ve.
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Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #51 on: September 22, 2017, 04:10:08 PM »
JAXA comes in at 22,392,913 km2 for the 21st.

NSIDC  comes in at 22.615 x 106 km2 for the 21st.

Paddy

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #52 on: September 22, 2017, 09:24:10 PM »
It will be interesting to see whether or not we get something similar to last year over the next few months. I'm betting it won't be quite so far from the norm as last year, but what do I know?

Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #53 on: September 22, 2017, 10:54:09 PM »
It will be interesting to see whether or not we get something similar to last year over the next few months. I'm betting it won't be quite so far from the norm as last year, but what do I know?
  My guessomatic model predicts something along this line;

TerryM

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #54 on: September 23, 2017, 12:40:36 AM »
Jeez you make nasty guesses!


 I hope we break away from last years path and head back to something not quite as scary. By the end of next month we should have some idea of whether last year was an aberration or the beginning of a whole new global ice regime.


I swing over to Wipneus's charts my get my daily horror fix, but I'd be happy to discover that all had reverted to those halcyon days of 2012, when we didn't worry about the global effects of ice loss, and the resulting changes in albedo.


Terry

Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #55 on: September 23, 2017, 01:17:05 AM »
TerryM,
Quote
Jeez you make nasty guesses!

Sorry, but the Arctic got off way too easy this summer. The heat has to go somewhere at some point, and I don't expect a great freezing season for the Arctic. And it is just a general guess.

Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #56 on: September 23, 2017, 03:06:29 PM »
NSIDC totals continue the virtual flat-line for the 22nd, adding up to 22.606 x 106 km2.

Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #57 on: September 24, 2017, 05:44:49 AM »
JAXA totals come in at 22,388,678 km2 for the 23rd. Down again after a temporary increase.


NSIDC comes in at 22.629 x 106 km2.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2017, 02:20:34 PM by Tigertown »

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #58 on: September 24, 2017, 02:39:42 PM »
Not sure if I can go along with Tigertown's "nasty guesses" when looking at history. But having humiliated myself frequently recently, I make no predictions, merely present what has happened in recent years.
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Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #59 on: September 25, 2017, 05:39:06 AM »
@gerontocrat,
I fear that history may be in the making. Thanks for the great info and charts by the way.

JAXA totals are down to 22,312,091 km2 for the 24th.

NSIDC  comes in at 22.555 x 106 km2. Down over one day.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2017, 04:11:23 PM by Tigertown »

Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #60 on: September 26, 2017, 04:22:05 PM »
For the 25th,

JAXA comes in at 22,330,772 km2.

NSIDC comes in at 22.590 x 106 km2.

Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #61 on: September 27, 2017, 03:09:29 PM »
All is up today.

JAXA is at 22,473,632 km2.

NSIDC is at 22.762 x 106 km2.

Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #62 on: September 28, 2017, 03:05:58 PM »
Moving up again, but it's just a matter of for how long?

TerryM

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #63 on: September 28, 2017, 06:45:26 PM »
Moving up again, but it's just a matter of for how long?



That said, it's still either the lowest, or the second lowest ever recorded for this date. Area is firmly in place at second lowest, but with a much larger gap between 2nd and 3d.
October will tell an interesting tale.
Terry


RikW

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #64 on: September 29, 2017, 03:17:59 PM »
Moving up again, but it's just a matter of for how long?



That said, it's still either the lowest, or the second lowest ever recorded for this date. Area is firmly in place at second lowest, but with a much larger gap between 2nd and 3d.
October will tell an interesting tale.
Terry

If area will continue the trend of the last couple of days it will in the pack soon.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #65 on: September 30, 2017, 02:07:21 PM »
What will happen in October ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #66 on: September 30, 2017, 03:15:35 PM »
NSIDC totals for the 29th add up to 22.992 x 106 km2. The last increase being nominal compare to the two prior ones.

Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #67 on: October 03, 2017, 06:00:25 PM »
For Oct. 2nd, NSIDC global SIE totals add up to 23.187 x 106 km2.

Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #68 on: October 08, 2017, 02:49:35 PM »
NSIDC  totals are now at 23.635 x 106 km2 with a recent climbing trend.


Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #69 on: October 10, 2017, 04:32:43 PM »
2017 remains unpredictable. All the home-made models are in the trash can, uh, I mean recycling bin, now.
Up, up, and away!

Paddy

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #70 on: October 11, 2017, 09:22:49 AM »
Not looking like a repeat of last winter then.

Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #71 on: October 11, 2017, 11:40:38 AM »
Antarctica's SIE has stalled again. It should begin to fall soon, being this late in the year. We will see soon how this will affect the global numbers.

Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #72 on: October 14, 2017, 03:04:39 PM »
24.283 x 106 km2 is where NSIDC comes in for the 13th. Down by 14 km2 from the 12th.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #73 on: October 15, 2017, 02:58:26 PM »
JAXA DATA
Jaxa is having a Sunday off so here is a table as at 13th October. Remaining extent gain in just the next 3 weeks is on average 1.5 million km2, but varies from a mere 0.25 million km2 in the 1980's to over 2 million km2 in 2008.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #74 on: October 21, 2017, 04:21:31 PM »
JAXA DATA
Average arctic ice extent gain and very slow antarctic ice extent loss has resulted in combined extent as at 20th October of  24,626,679 km2, compared with the absolute maximum last year on 6th November of  23,635,821 km2, i.e. a tad short of 1 million km2 additional extent.

This is likely to increase by up to another 1 million km2 unless something major happens.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #75 on: October 22, 2017, 04:30:50 PM »
Things are looking so normal(comparatively) this year; where is the heat going?

TerryM

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #76 on: October 22, 2017, 07:16:16 PM »
Can I now exhale?
Terry

Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #77 on: October 23, 2017, 03:51:25 AM »
Can I now exhale?
Terry
Depends on where you are. Here, we are still waiting for summer to end, already a month past the expected calendar timeline. So I don't really think everything is ok. I just think maybe the ice didn't do what what some of us expected, and am beginning to wonder if it will entirely.

TerryM

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #78 on: October 24, 2017, 01:12:43 AM »
Can I now exhale?
Terry
Depends on where you are. Here, we are still waiting for summer to end, already a month past the expected calendar timeline. So I don't really think everything is ok. I just think maybe the ice didn't do what what some of us expected, and am beginning to wonder if it will entirely.


Here in Southern Ontario at 7PM my air conditioner is still spinning, as it has for the past few days. I recall many snowy Halloweens from my long ago childhood, but that's still a week away.
I am more than somewhat relieved that this winter's global ice doesn't seem to be following last year's track. Wipneus's chart scared the bejesus out of me.
Everything will never be "OK" again, but I'm grateful that we didn't slide off on that track.


Terry

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #79 on: October 24, 2017, 01:31:22 PM »
Can I now exhale?
Terry
JAXA DATA

One should exhale and inhale occasionally to remain extant. However, one should note that while the very unusual events of 2016 have not been repeated, global extent is very low and global area is 2nd lowest.

If the moderate slowdown in arctic extent gain over recent days is matched by a moderate increase in Antarctic extent loss then the graph will go sideways instead of up.  Note that this is not a prediction, merely an observation.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2017, 01:40:25 PM by gerontocrat »
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Buddy

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #80 on: October 28, 2017, 05:38:25 PM »
Gerontocract:

You are so right....there is not much reason to relax and enjoy "only" being in second place.  And as Tigertown has noted...the additional heat is going somewhere...so it is only a matter of time that combined sea ice worldwide is at record level lows.  Whether it is this year or next year really doesn't matter.  The trend is in place.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Tigertown

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #81 on: October 31, 2017, 02:33:36 PM »
It looks like we have possibly reached a peak.

Daniel B.

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #82 on: October 31, 2017, 03:11:10 PM »
It looks like we have possibly reached a peak.


Possibly.  We will see.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #83 on: October 31, 2017, 04:03:21 PM »
It looks like we have possibly reached a peak.


Possibly.  We will see.
JAXA DATA
The table and graph below show the variation in remaining extent gain and date of maximum. As they would say in Melanesia - "wait small".
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #84 on: November 05, 2017, 03:47:09 PM »
NSIDC DATA - Nearing the end?

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/nov/05/donald-trump-accused-blocking-satellite-climate-change-research

It seems that NASA have decided that DMSP satellite F-19 cannot be made operational, and has been abandoned.
DMSP satellite F-20 was destroyed by order of Congress.
The current satellites are already working beyond their shelf-life and the earliest replacement data is 2023.
It is highly likely that NSIDC data will be interrupted temporarily or permanently.

“This is like throwing away the medical records of a sick patient,” said David Gallaher of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado. “Our world is ailing and we have apparently decided to undermine, quite deliberately, the effectiveness of the records on which its recovery might be based. It is criminal.”

However, this criminal act lies not with Trump but at the door of Rep. US Senator Lamar Smith, current chairman of the U.S. House Science, Space and Technology Committee.
He is not standing for re-election next year, and the hurrahs vs eulogies have already started.

http://beta.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-lamar-smith-20171103-story.html
https://www.texastribune.org/2017/11/02/lamar-smith-retiring-congress/

JAXA DATA

It now looks likely the Jaxa Extent maximum was on 28th October 2017 at 25,148,160 km2.
The table below shows that with current extent at 25,010,697 km2, no previous year had sufficient extent gain to go over that maximum. (After which 2017 will no doubt behave uniquely).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #85 on: November 06, 2017, 01:02:37 PM »
JAXA DATA

5th November: Extent increases by 30 k km2 to 25,042,178 km2, due to
- faster Arctic extent gain,
- slower Antarctic extent loss.
Still 108k km2 less than max on 28th October.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Wipneus

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #86 on: November 08, 2017, 02:36:10 PM »
Apologies for mentioning area. NSIDC NT area is definitely making the impression of a nose dive. It dropped 4-sigma below the 1981-2010 mean, which happened before ( during the satellite era) only during one year: 2016.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #87 on: November 08, 2017, 03:32:48 PM »
Apologies for mentioning area.

Perhaps you could change the title of this thread and speak to both area and extent in one place.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #88 on: November 08, 2017, 04:43:08 PM »
Apologies for mentioning area.

Perhaps you could change the title of this thread and speak to both area and extent in one place.

I agree.  How about: Global Sea Ice According to NSIDC

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« Reply #89 on: November 08, 2017, 04:54:53 PM »
Apologies for mentioning area.

Perhaps you could change the title of this thread and speak to both area and extent in one place.

I agree.  How about: Global Sea Ice According to NSIDCj
How about global sea ice data ( I post JAXA data), and not buried in the Arctic Sea Ice section?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Neven

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #90 on: November 08, 2017, 06:37:21 PM »
I've changed the thread title.
Compare, compare, compare

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #91 on: November 08, 2017, 09:18:38 PM »
I've changed the thread title.
Merci
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #92 on: November 09, 2017, 02:07:26 AM »
I've changed the thread title.

This is inviting in non-NSIDC data.  I'm guessing you know recent threads well enough that restricting to NSIDC wasn't seen as reasonable.

I would like to see a separate discussion of data providers, but I wouldn't even know how to frame the headline.

Tigertown

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #93 on: November 09, 2017, 06:55:58 AM »
A most excellent idea!

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #94 on: November 10, 2017, 01:41:32 PM »
JAXA DATA
9th November Extent  25,039,173 km2, just 109k km2 less than max on 28th October. But Global Area per NSIDC  (merci Wipneus) keeps on going down stongly! Methinks that difference is in the Antarctic.

But 2017 extent is currently nearly 1.6 million km2 GREATER THAN 2016, and it looks to me as if that difference is going to grow.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2017, 01:55:32 PM by gerontocrat »
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Daniel B.

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #95 on: November 10, 2017, 02:15:35 PM »
JAXA DATA
9th November Extent  25,039,173 km2, just 109k km2 less than max on 28th October. But Global Area per NSIDC  (merci Wipneus) keeps on going down stongly! Methinks that difference is in the Antarctic.

But 2017 extent is currently nearly 1.6 million km2 GREATER THAN 2016, and it looks to me as if that difference is going to grow.

Me think you are right.

Tigertown

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #96 on: November 13, 2017, 11:23:07 PM »
I jumped the gun earlier this season, but I think maybe now we are in the global extent dive that I feared all along. Maybe.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #97 on: November 14, 2017, 02:40:13 PM »
JAXA DATA

The extent reduction from the Oct 28 maximum to the minimum expected in Feb 18 has barely started - just 5% of the average total extent loss of 9 million km2 done to date  (13th November).Using the previous years' data gives possible minima ranging from 14.75 to 17.25 million km2 c.f. an average (last 10 years) of 16.9 million km2 and the Feb 2017 lowest minimum of 15.6 million km2. The data does point to somewhere between these two values but this is merely an observation, NOT A PREDICTION.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #98 on: November 20, 2017, 03:22:40 PM »
JAXA DATA as at 19th Nov 2017

Net extent loss is now well underway. However, 2017 extent is 2.1 million km2 greater than last year, an increase from 1.5 million km2 just 10 days ago.
On the other hand, extent loss on average still has 90% to go.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #99 on: November 20, 2017, 03:37:12 PM »
If daily ice loss hoovers around the 200K/day (duplicating the last day reported) for the next two weeks, the deficit with 2016 will be erased.  I'm not expecting this to happen (I make no forecast one way or the other), but it shows how insignificant 2 million square kilometers of ice is in the scheme of things.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.