Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Global sea ice area and extent data  (Read 129363 times)

harpy

  • New ice
  • Posts: 84
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #200 on: February 11, 2018, 05:37:08 PM »
There's no way that 1950-1980 is a baseline, that's pure garbage.  Anyone who thinks that an acceptable baseline is anything beyond 1850 is wrong.

PRE INDUSTRIAL is the correct baseline, that's 1750-1850 or earlier, nothing after that point.  Using data before that point is acceptable, preferably average data from the past 5000 approximately (post glacial period) years PRIOR to 1750.  Any point since CO2 emissions began to rise due to human causes is not a baseline, and is false data and garbage.

IDK if you are having a difficult time understanding or not, but those data below 0 are wrong - the entire graph is being skewed upwards.  The 1880-1990 data should be around or slightly above 0, not below zero.

IDK why people have such a hard time understanding what an accurate baseline is.

Current global average temperature above pre industrial baseline is 1.5C above baseline in 2018.  We hit nearly 2C above baseline in 2015-2016.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2018, 05:53:55 PM by harpy »

FishOutofWater

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 745
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 280
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #201 on: February 11, 2018, 06:40:29 PM »
For everyday climatology 30 year baselines are used. Therefore the relatively warm period 1980 to 2010 is used. In fact, you see all different baselines on the net. You need to be very careful to compare equivalent baselines.

Most of this is not political. It's the way things were done before the climate started changing so rapidly.

harpy

  • New ice
  • Posts: 84
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #202 on: February 11, 2018, 08:15:23 PM »
The climate started to change rapidly beginning in mid 1900s.  Using incredibly misleading baselines of 1980-2010 is nothing more than delusion, and is purely deception.

Using a 1980-2010 baseline right now to claim that we're currently at less than 1C above baseline is the equivalent of the below analogy:

That's like having a body temperature of 104, and using your temperatures YESTERDAY when your body temperature was 102 as baseline.  Sure, a 2F increase in body temperature in a day is alarming, but when you compare that to a 5F increase from your actual baseline, it's time to get to a hospital ASAP.

Pure delusion at this point. 

NASA knows that 1980-2010 is not the baseline, they use it for political reasons.  There's perfectly good data available pre 1950, but they choose not to use it because EVERYTHING would be significantly above average and the common people would start scratching their heads and wondering.

So long as they use the 1980-2010 baseline, everyone just keeps going to work, keeps buying stuff, keeps having children, keeps pretending that everything is just slightly above average.


Ktb

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 137
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #203 on: February 11, 2018, 09:59:13 PM »
On topic please!
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
- Ishmael

Iceismylife

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 281
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #204 on: February 11, 2018, 11:02:28 PM »
<snip>

There's a reason why measuring is kept at 1900+. The little ice age. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

Temps were already naturally down, so measuring from them would be anomalous.
<snap>
sorry for off topic I'll keep it short.

IMHO The end of the little ice age was the soot addition into the sea ice from the start of the industrial revolution. That would be ~1700.  The feedback loops we are seeing now in the Arctic would've been playing out on the edge of the sea ice 35 miles north of the coast of Denmark. 

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7074
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 662
  • Likes Given: 433
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #205 on: February 11, 2018, 11:11:49 PM »
On topic please!

Yes! Show some respect for the new lowest global sea ice extent minimum on record!  :P

Any off-topic comments in this thread will be deleted for a while to come.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Iceismylife

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 281
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #206 on: February 11, 2018, 11:27:12 PM »
Record low NSIDC, who's got the champagne? Gotta celebrate even though it is similar to those depressing movies where a kid throws a birthday party and nobody shows up.
So...yay? :-\
A moment of silence for the new minimum.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #207 on: February 12, 2018, 11:42:58 AM »
FROM JAXA DATA AS AT 11 FEB - Global Extent  15,604,595 km2.

On 9th Feb while the JAXA website was on holiday, global extent dropped to  15,550,781 km2, some 53,814 (Correction -) 36,831 km2 less than 2017's record low on 11th Feb.

Since then extent has risen. there are (average last 10 years) 3 days (from zero to 12), 1.3%, 120,000 km2 extent loss to go, or that could be the end of the extent loss period.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2018, 10:51:03 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #208 on: February 12, 2018, 03:15:55 PM »
NSIDC Data updated. They made some changes to previous days extents. The result is that on 10th February global extent was exactly 16.000 million km2. Will this be the record low ?(extent on 11th Feb up by 126 k km2).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #209 on: February 13, 2018, 10:59:28 AM »
JAXA extent as at 12th Feb  15,586,027 km2, down 18,568 km2,  just 1,585 km2 below the 2017 minimum. For 3 out of the last 4 days 2018 has been at a record low.

There are on average just 2 more days to go before minimum, with perhaps another 100,000 extent loss. With Arctic Sea Ice gains low or negative and high Arctic temperature anomalies expected at both ends of the CAB, this could be extended a few days.

The fat lady has not sung yet?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #210 on: February 13, 2018, 12:28:15 PM »
Forgot to add the graph and tables.

the red coloured boxes in the first table highlight those years where minimum has already passed.

the second table shows the extent to which both 2017 and 2018 are completely outside the range of previous years. As I've said before, one year may be dismissed as an outlier, two years in a row may be the start of a trend.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #211 on: February 14, 2018, 10:00:28 AM »
FROM JAXA DATA AS AT 13 FEB - Global Extent   15,607,331  km2.

On 9th Feb global extent dropped to it's lowest to date, 15,550,781 km2, some 36,831 km2 less than 2017's record low on 11th Feb.

Since then extent has risen, due to small increases in Arctic extent and low decreases in Antarctic extent. There is (average last 10 years) just 1 day (from zero to 10), 1.1%, 100,000 km2 extent loss to go, or that could be the end of the extent loss period.

The first table now shows its limitations, basically of little use while extent is above its minimum. Time to look at Sept/Oct minimum and Oct/Nov maximum? Wait a few days, methinks. 
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #212 on: February 14, 2018, 03:13:40 PM »
NSIDC daily extent data for 13th Feb

Extent 16.031 million km2, down 72 k
Arctic down 16 k, Antarctic down 56k.

That's seven days 2018 daily extent has been below the 2017 record low - not by a lot, but less.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #213 on: February 15, 2018, 01:01:05 PM »
FROM JAXA DATA AS AT 14 FEB - Global Extent 15,634,526  km2, up 33k on the day and now 52k above the minimum to date on 9th Feb.

There is (average last 10 years) zero days (max 9 days), 0.9%, 84,000 km2 extent loss to go. But unless there is an oddity (e.g. a big Arctic drop) methinks that might be it. So the first table will be put on the shelf until late in the year unless something happens. Also note from the graph how last year extent gain was very low in the next month.

What next ? A first look look at the Oct/Nov maximum is posted below.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15122
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 353
  • Likes Given: 182
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #214 on: February 15, 2018, 07:31:39 PM »
“Our planet reached another miserable milestone earlier this week: Global sea ice fell to its lowest level since human civilization began more than 12,000 years ago. ”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/964184575822921731
Image and link below.

SNAP, CRACKLE, DROP
Polar ice is lost at sea
https://grist.org/article/polar-ice-is-lost-at-sea/ 
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #215 on: February 16, 2018, 12:25:44 PM »
FROM JAXA DATA AS AT 15 FEB - Global Extent  15,651,409  km2, up 11k on the day and now 64k above the minimum to date on 9th Feb.

On average (last 10 years) the season is over,  methinks that might be it. The extent on 15th Feb was 253 k below the 2017 extent on that date due to 134k increase in 2017. But note from the graph how last year extent gain was very low in the next month.

What next ? Still a chance that Arctic extent could drop sharply over the next few days. The fat lady may not have yet sung the last chorus.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #216 on: February 16, 2018, 02:04:33 PM »
NSIDC daily extent data for 15th Feb

Extent 16.031 million km2, up 23k on the day (not a lot).
Arctic up 22 k, Antarctic up 1 k.

That's 9 days in a row 2018 daily extent has been below the 2017 record low - not by a lot, but less. And more significantly, global extent on 15th Feb 2018 0.331 million less than 2017 extent on that day.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #217 on: February 17, 2018, 01:28:16 PM »
And here is JAXA's graph for global extent since 1978.

What the image tells me is how for many years extent was in a tight pack. The bottom two lines are 2017 and 2018. So much farther apart from the pack. This separation started in October 2016 and has never really stopped.

Although Jaxa data has only one day with 2018 extent at a record low, of perhaps greater significance is that for 11 days this year it has been lower than the 2017 daily extent (on 16th Feb 287K less than the 2017 extent on that date.

As always, what happens next? Flash in the pan? or the start of a new trend? or gradual decline resumes ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Pmt111500

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1831
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 73
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #218 on: February 17, 2018, 02:39:12 PM »
<snip>


Any off-topic comments in this thread will be deleted for a while to come.

« Last Edit: February 18, 2018, 08:43:08 PM by Neven »
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

liefde

  • New ice
  • Posts: 46
  • ice melt will trump donald
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #219 on: February 17, 2018, 03:42:37 PM »
<snip>
« Last Edit: February 18, 2018, 08:43:18 PM by Neven »

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3908
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 389
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #220 on: February 17, 2018, 03:53:46 PM »
<snip>
« Last Edit: February 18, 2018, 08:43:29 PM by Neven »

liefde

  • New ice
  • Posts: 46
  • ice melt will trump donald
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #221 on: February 17, 2018, 10:04:02 PM »
NASA knows that 1980-2010 is not the baseline, they use it for political reasons.
Hmm.. I doubt it. The bad thing is, if even that baseline shows anomalies 8 years later, it proves in how much trouble we are, since that means nothing more or less than exponential rise.
Which is exactly what it reveals.
Climate Reanalyzer, for one, uses a 1979-2000 climate baseline (for their 2m T anomaly maps), derived from the reanalysis of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSR/CFSV2). This baseline is chosen over the more typical 1981-2010 climate normal for the simple reason that it better approximates historical climatology. 

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #222 on: February 18, 2018, 05:02:44 PM »
JAXA on holiday today (they say maintenance. Huh)

NSIDC daily extent data for 17th Feb 16.031 million km2 , bouncing around at the bottom

That's 11 days in a row 2018 daily extent has been below the 2017 record low - not by a lot, but less. And more significantly, global extent on 17th Feb 2018 is 0.481 million less than 2017 extent on that day. That is a lot.

A table on events in the last 10 days attached, and of course that graph.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2018, 05:09:06 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

harpy

  • New ice
  • Posts: 84
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #223 on: February 18, 2018, 06:21:06 PM »
<snip>
« Last Edit: February 18, 2018, 08:43:47 PM by Neven »

prairiebotanist

  • New ice
  • Posts: 27
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #224 on: February 18, 2018, 06:34:40 PM »
<snip>
« Last Edit: February 18, 2018, 08:44:02 PM by Neven »

harpy

  • New ice
  • Posts: 84
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #225 on: February 18, 2018, 07:02:39 PM »
<snip>

I was just responding to a post, am I not allowed to do that?  Should I just send posts directly to the users?

I'm just trying to figure out how the format works here.

<edit Neven: When I warn that I'm going to delete off-topic comments for a while (because things get out of hand), it's better not to write off-topic comments. Invite others to go to more appropriate threads, which you can either search or open yourself.>
« Last Edit: February 18, 2018, 08:46:24 PM by Neven »

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #226 on: February 20, 2018, 11:08:57 AM »
FROM JAXA DATA AS AT 19 FEB - Global Extent   15,648,652  km2, -322,949 km2 less than 2017 on that day.

Methinks the season is over. So here is a table showing how the minimum of 15.55 on the 9th Feb compared with previous years, the graph on where we are, and a first look at the Oct/Nov maximum. ( Note that it was in 2016 that the maximum hit a low low maximum)
« Last Edit: February 20, 2018, 11:17:09 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #227 on: February 20, 2018, 03:47:47 PM »
NSIDC Data as at 19th February Global Extent 16.191million Km2, Arctic up 85k, Antarctic 18k. Lower than 2017 by 337k, (previous day was 437k), but still the 13th day at a record low.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #228 on: February 21, 2018, 01:42:26 PM »
JAXA Data as at 20th February Global Extent  15,709,074 million Km2, up 60k.
Lower than 2017 by 267k, (previous day was 323k).

Now looking forward at 2 events,
- the Aug / Sep minimum,
- the Oct / Nov maximum.

too early to make any comments.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #229 on: February 23, 2018, 02:07:46 PM »
Global Extent is going up - mostly because of above average increase in the Arctic sea ice extent.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #230 on: February 26, 2018, 05:27:31 PM »
NSIDC Data 25th Feb

Global extent still less than 2017. That's quite a few days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Ktb

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 137
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #231 on: February 26, 2018, 10:45:32 PM »
~2 weeks scraping the bottom of the barrel
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
- Ishmael

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #232 on: February 28, 2018, 02:19:00 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent Data 27th Feb - Global extent 16.393 million km2, 106 k Greater Than 2017 (first time for a good few days).

Extract from Wipneus' graph attached

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #233 on: March 01, 2018, 12:58:59 PM »
JAXA Data as at 28th February Global Extent   16,135,063 km2, up 100k. 2018 overtook 2017 extent on 26th Feb, and is now 234k greater than 2017. Extent gain since minimum has been 0.58 million km2, compared with the 10 year average of 0.47 k.

This is due to larger than average extent increases at both poles. Table attached looking forward to the Oct/Nov maximum - far too early to make comments.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #234 on: March 01, 2018, 01:54:42 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent data at 28th Feb - table attached. Confirms JAXA trends
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #235 on: March 03, 2018, 12:00:34 PM »
And then JAXA produces a surprise, a 17K drop on March 2nd to  16,194,553 km2, from a 5k increase in Antarctica and a 22k drop in the Arctic. 2018 extent is 257k above 2017, but 1.17 million below the 2010's average.


"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #236 on: March 03, 2018, 02:28:48 PM »
NSIDC Extent 2nd march also shows a drop
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #237 on: March 04, 2018, 02:49:12 PM »
NSIDC 3rd March. Arctic down but Antarctic up more
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #238 on: March 05, 2018, 02:54:33 PM »
NSIDC DAILY DATA at 4th March

Arctic down 2k, Antarctic up 5k.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

colchonero

  • New ice
  • Posts: 80
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #240 on: March 13, 2018, 08:22:39 PM »
Very big increases over the last few days.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #241 on: March 14, 2018, 10:04:42 AM »
JAXA DATA AS AT 13TH MARCH Extent 17,190,450 km2, some 819 k greater than 2017 on that date. Record lows feel but a distant memory.

Extent gain from minimum is 310k greater than average, reflecting relatively high daily increases in both hemispheres.



"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #242 on: March 14, 2018, 01:19:26 PM »
NSIDC DAILY DATA at 13th March

and https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/global-sea-ice

The table and graph say it all.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #243 on: March 18, 2018, 02:09:40 PM »
NSIDC DATA AS AT 17TH MARCH Extent 17.989 million km2, some 1.053 million km2 greater than 2017 on that date. Near record lows feel but a very distant memory, but just 11 days ago on 6th March difference with 2017 was 0.093 million km2.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Dharma Rupa

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 493
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 55
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #244 on: March 18, 2018, 04:10:31 PM »
Feels like last Summer finally (and suddenly) petered out on roughly day 60.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1166
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #245 on: March 24, 2018, 02:56:12 PM »
Feels like last Summer finally (and suddenly) petered out on roughly day 60.

Didn't it just.

NSIDC data and graph 23 March below
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2932
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 279
  • Likes Given: 159
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #246 on: March 24, 2018, 11:23:43 PM »
See, the problem appears to be going away.  At the current rate, we'll have maximum global ice later this year.   ::) :P
But i do not expect the current rate of 'overtaking' previous year's 'current day' values to continue very long.  It appears the NH melting might accelerate earlier than previous years (soon), dampening whatever ice growth happens in the SH.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2252
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 244
  • Likes Given: 174
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #247 on: March 25, 2018, 01:51:06 AM »
Although I don't follow Antarctic sea ice as closely as I follow the arctic, my bet is that record high Antarctic sea ice will return soon. I think that when the Arctic is ice free there will be record antarctic growth. I really can't justify that belief.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4313
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 774
  • Likes Given: 1237
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #248 on: March 25, 2018, 08:57:33 AM »
Now would be a good time for a gentle reminder that the global sea ice metric is not really that interesting scientifically. Antarctic sea ice extent is highly variable, with a huge max to min range.  And it has a glaciated continent right in the middle. Hansen's predictions are that when the glaciers melt, sea ice will actually grow due to freshening of the top layer of the southern ocean. And this sea ice growth could actually increase glacial melt as it keeps a lid on the ocean and helps increase the temperature of the water lapping at the marine glaciers. So the metric will fare fine while SLR is accelerated.
In addition, antarctic sea ice at maximum (=zero insolation) is no replacement for arctic sea ice at minimum (=high insolation). Again, poor metric.
In my view, this metric has always been the denier's trick, but when it suddenly turned on its head two years ago it was "on our side". I admit it was nice when Wipneus' chart made the rounds. Now this metric might be going back. But it still doesn't change the fundamental fact that it's simply not a good scientific metric.

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 126
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #249 on: March 25, 2018, 10:20:00 AM »
Adding that Antarctic sea ice extent was highly variable even in the 60's:
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/new-data-from-old-satellites-a-nimbus-success-story
Quote
“We were shocked by what we discovered in these images,” says Gallaher. “We thought, OK, all reports from the 1960s were that it was colder, so we expected to see a lot more sea ice. In fact, 1964 was the largest sea ice extent until 2014. Then in 1966 we saw the lowest ice extent that was ever seen. This was totally unexpected. There’s a lot more variability in sea ice extent than we ever could have imagined.”
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.