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Ktb

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #300 on: May 25, 2018, 02:32:00 PM »
Gerontocrat, do you know the total number of days 2018 has spent at the lowest position in global extent?
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #301 on: May 25, 2018, 02:41:36 PM »
Gerontocrat, do you know the total number of days 2018 has spent at the lowest position in global extent?
34 out of 144, I think.
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Pmt111500

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #302 on: May 25, 2018, 08:54:04 PM »
Getting exciting, does it flatline or not?
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #303 on: May 28, 2018, 09:33:30 AM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 27 May = 21,536,004 km2, 18k above2017

On average, a maximum of 24.31 million km2, a bit higher but still second lowest, is on the cards, with a relatively low range of 23.5 million to 25.2 million km2 outcomes from the last 10 years remaining extent gain.
On average, 69% of extent gain done, with 161 days to go.

ps:- Due to the different timings of Antarctic gain and Arctic loss, there is a secondary minimum of global extent in late August or September. At the moment, this also looks like a record low is very possible. See last table attached.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2018, 12:28:01 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #304 on: June 01, 2018, 11:32:15 AM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 31 May =  21,863,760 km2, 18k above2017

On average, a maximum of 24.44 million km2, a bit higher but still second lowest, is on the cards, with a relatively low range of 23.7 million to 25.2 million km2 outcomes from the last 10 years remaining extent gain.
On average, 71% of extent gain done, with 157 days to go.

ps:- Due to the different timings of Antarctic gain and Arctic loss, there is a secondary minimum of global extent in late August or September. At the moment, this also looks like a record low is very possible. See last table attached.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #305 on: June 05, 2018, 03:16:13 PM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 4th June =   22,111,119 km2, 38k below2017 and 34k greater than 2016 - i.e. 2nd lowest by a teeny bit.

On average, a maximum of  24.43 million km2, a bit higher but still second lowest, is on the cards, with a slightly lower range of 23.8 million to 25.1 million km2 outcomes from the last 10 years remaining extent gain.
On average, 74% of extent gain done, with 153 days to go.

ps:- Due to the different timings of Antarctic gain and Arctic loss, there is a secondary minimum of global extent in late August or September. At the moment, this also looks like a record low is very possible. See last table attached.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #306 on: June 08, 2018, 12:37:31 PM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 7th June =    22,237,997 km2, 145k below2017 and 262k below 2016 - i.e. lowest by a significant bit.

On average, a maximum of  24.39 million km2, a still second lowest, is on the cards, with a slightly lower range of 23.5 million to 25.0 million km2 outcomes from the last 10 years remaining extent gain.
On average, 76% of extent gain done, with 150 days to go.

ps:- Due to the different timings of Antarctic gain and Arctic loss, there is a secondary minimum of global extent in late August or September. At the moment, this also looks like a record low is very possible. See last table attached.
[/quote]
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #307 on: June 10, 2018, 08:50:40 AM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 7th June = 22,469,175 km2, 30k below2017 and 200k below 2016 - i.e. still lowest- just.

A combination of high Antarctic gains and low Arctic losses over the last three days has changed the picture somewhat.

On average, a maximum of  24.52 million km2, still second lowest, is on the cards, with a slightly lower range of 23.6 million to 25.1 million km2 outcomes from the last 10 years remaining extent gain. To be a record low, remaining extent gain would have to be about 40% less than the average remaining extent gain of 2 million km2.
 
On average, 77% of extent gain done, with 148 days to go.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #308 on: June 14, 2018, 02:02:16 PM »
NSIDC Global Daily Extent as at 13th June + Jaxa image (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent/&time=2018-05-29%2000:00:00)

NSIDC and Jaxa extent data show the same story - high Antarctic gains and low Arctic losses.


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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #309 on: June 15, 2018, 11:11:37 AM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 14th June =  23,085,478 km2, 640k above2017 and 116k below 2016

A combination of high Antarctic gains and low Arctic losses over the last 10 days or so has changed the picture somewhat.

On average, a maximum of  24.94 million km2, 1.2 million km2 above the record low of 2016, still second lowest (just), with a range of 23.7 million to 25.8 million km2 outcomes from the last 10 years remaining extent gain.

A record low is looking about impossible as remaining extent gain would have to be about 70% less than the average.
 
On average, 80% of extent gain done, with 143 days to go.
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Ktb

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #310 on: June 16, 2018, 02:16:33 AM »
Global area has managed to punch back into +/-2 standard deviation range for the first time since July 2016.
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #311 on: June 18, 2018, 12:43:04 PM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 17th June =   23,103,875 km2, 457k above 2017 and 200k below 2016

A combination of high Antarctic gains and low Arctic losses over the last 10 days or so changed the picture somewhat and then in the last three days reversed to very low Antarctic gains. 17th June saw a 27k drop in total extent, (a bit earlier than the average year start in early July).

On average, a maximum of  24.82 million km2, 1.1 million km2 above the record low of 2016, still second lowest, with a range of 23.6 million to 25.6 million km2 outcomes from the last 10 years remaining extent gain.

A record low is looking about impossible as remaining extent gain would have to be about 70% less than the average (as happened in 2016).
 
On average, 81% of extent gain done, with 140 days to go.

The last table shows the Sept/Oct "false minimum" caused by the different timing of Arctic extent loss and Antarctic extent gain. A record low is still very possible.
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Pmt111500

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #312 on: June 18, 2018, 12:53:40 PM »
No flatline to the summer secondary peak then, still possible to have a flatline in autumn of course.
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #313 on: July 02, 2018, 12:54:10 PM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 1st July 2018 = 23,767,558 km2, 1.130 million km2 above 2017 and 4th lowest in the satellite record

A combination of high Antarctic gains and low Arctic losses in June makes a record low look somewhat unlikely to impossible.

On average, a maximum of  25.38 million km2 is the result from average remaining extent gain, 1.6 million km2 above the record low of 2016. The previous 10 years remaining extent gain gives outcomes ranging from 23.84 to 26.28 million km2..

On average, 82% of extent gain done, with 1 days to go.

The last table shows the Sept/Oct "false minimum" caused by the different timing of Arctic extent loss and Antarctic extent gain. A record low is still just about possible. But note this assumes that as usual for a period of time from about now, daily Arctic Sea Ice extent loss is greater than Antarctic Sea Ice gain, as happened in 2016.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #314 on: July 02, 2018, 12:55:16 PM »
And a graph from JAXA.
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #315 on: July 08, 2018, 08:59:48 AM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 7 July 2018 =  23,860,328 km2, 1.024 million km2 above 2017 and 5th lowest in the satellite record

A combination of high Antarctic gains and low Arctic losses in June makes a record low look somewhat unlikely to impossible.

On average, a maximum of  25.52 million km2 is the result from average remaining extent gain, 1.6 million km2 above the record low of 2016. The previous 10 years remaining extent gain gives outcomes ranging from 23.86 to 26.6 million km2..

On average, 82% of extent gain done, with 120 days to go.

At this point in time, Arctic loss is, on average, greater than Antarctic gain. This is not happening so far this year to any meaningful extent.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #316 on: July 17, 2018, 02:25:36 PM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 16 July 2018 =   23,720,655 km2, 1.116 million km2 above 2017 and 6th lowest in the satellite record

A combination of average Antarctic gains and low Arctic losses in June and July makes a record low look unlikely to impossible, given that extent is now only 40 k below that record.

On average, a maximum of  25.64 million km2 is the result from average remaining extent gain, 1.9 million km2 above the record low of 2016. The previous 10 years remaining extent gain gives outcomes ranging from 23.94 to 26.65 million km2.

On average, 79% of extent gain done, with 111 days to go.

At this point in time, daily Arctic loss is, on average, greater than daily Antarctic gain. This is not happening so far this year to any meaningful extent. (see garph and table re Sept/Oct false minimum)
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #317 on: July 17, 2018, 02:27:49 PM »
And a graph from JAXA to complete the picture
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #318 on: July 21, 2018, 11:07:25 AM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 20 July 2018 = 23,533,468 km2, 0.760 million km2 above 2017 and 6th(?) lowest in the satellite record

In recent days high Arctic losses and low Antarctic gains has made a bit of a difference.
On average, a maximum of  25.54 million km2 is the result from average remaining extent gain, 1.8 million km2 above the record low of 2016. The previous 10 years remaining extent gain gives outcomes ranging from 23.88 to 26.33 million km2.

On average, 78% of extent gain done, with 107 days to go.

Table re the Sep/Oct false minimum also attached.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #319 on: July 21, 2018, 11:09:47 AM »
And a graph from JAXA.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #320 on: July 28, 2018, 01:39:09 PM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 20 July 2018 =  23,167,525 km2, now only 0.139 million km2 above 2017 and 2nd(?) lowest in the satellite record

In recent days high Arctic losses and low Antarctic gains has made a large difference.

Looking at the Sep/Oct temporary minimum, if Arctic extent losses continue above average, and Antrctic gains low, a record low temporary minimum is a real possibility.

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Pmt111500

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #321 on: July 28, 2018, 05:43:45 PM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 20 July 2018 =  23,167,525 km2, now only 0.139 million km2 above 2017 and 2nd(?) lowest in the satellite record

In recent days high Arctic losses and low Antarctic gains has made a large difference.

Looking at the Sep/Oct temporary minimum, if Arctic extent losses continue above average, and Antrctic gains low, a record low temporary minimum is a real possibility.


Whee!! Where's the heat off, that was redistributed by atmosphere, 2015 El Nino? Has it stayed in south (New Zealand heat in 2016-7), or is there a northern component to it ( like 2 weeks of +30°C weather in northern Europe.)
 On the yard, in the shade, 31 degrees, sweating, having beer. (At least it's windy today. Soon to water the lawn, surprised the city hasn't yet complained of the water usage of the citizens.
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #322 on: July 29, 2018, 01:31:29 AM »
Record low:

Unlikely to impossible on July 17th.

Real possibility.  July 28th.




gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #323 on: July 31, 2018, 03:11:54 PM »
Record low:

Unlikely to impossible on July 17th.

Real possibility.  July 28th.
As the US SeaBees (Construction Battalion) used to say - "the impossible will take a little longer".

Harpy, you were out by 2 days (NSIDC Daily Extent Data).

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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #324 on: August 07, 2018, 09:45:24 AM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 6 Aug 2018 =   22,854,878  km2, now 0.349 million km2 above 2017 and 2nd(?) lowest in the satellite record

A mixture of variable gains and losses have kept an unchanged picture. Extent and a likely maximum of around 25 million are well below historical averages for a third year. Three years in a row at least suggest the beginning of a significant change.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #325 on: August 11, 2018, 12:10:27 PM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 10 Aug 2018 =   22,854,878  km2, now 0.327 million km2 (1.4%) above 2017 and 2nd lowest in the satellite record

A bit above average arctic sea ice losses and well below average Antarctic sea ice gains have changed the picture somewhat. Extent is now 856k (3.8%) below the 2010's average.

The September interim minimum from the remaining average net sea ice loss in this period is on 5 Sept, just 27 days from now.  The average result is 21.96 million, just 0.05 million above the record low in 2012 on the 25 August.

But this measure is subject to highly volatile change.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #326 on: August 21, 2018, 11:54:15 AM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 20 Aug 2018 =  22,554,294 km2, now 0.237 million km2 (1.0%) above 2017 and 4th lowest in the satellite record

Extent is now 698 k (3.1%) below the 2010's average.

The September interim minimum from the remaining average net sea ice loss in this period is on 5 Sept, just 17 days from now. However, this minimum could be in 5 days or as many as 31 days from now. The average result is 22.11 million, just 0.20 million above the record low in 2012 on the 25 August.

But this measure is subject to highly volatile change.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #327 on: August 29, 2018, 09:49:27 AM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 28 Aug 2018 =   22,507,019  km2, now 0.180 million km2 (0.8%) above 2017 and 4th lowest in the satellite record

Extent is now 604 k (2.7%) below the 2010's average.

The September interim minimum from the remaining average net sea ice loss in this period is on 5 Sept, just 9 days from now. However, this minimum was reached earlier in 3 years, and could have been reached already, or be in as many as 23 days from now. The average result is 22.27 million, 4th lowest, and 0.36 million above the record low in 2012 on the 25 August. But for the very slow arctic melt this year, a new record low would have been possible.

This measure is subject to highly volatile change, and at this time especially projections of outcomes are of little value.
[/quote]
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Pmt111500

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #328 on: August 29, 2018, 07:17:41 PM »
Entering the exiting other season when global ice may flatline. The northern hemisphere heat didn't reach arctic this year but the build-up of new ice may still be slow. Or the antarctic ice might leave fast.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2018, 10:44:46 PM by Pmt111500 »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #329 on: August 29, 2018, 11:58:18 PM »
Entering the exiting other season when global ice may flatline. The northern hemisphere heat didn't reach arctic this year but the build-up of new ice may still be slow. Or the antarctic ice might leave fast.

Having both Arctic and Antarctic to consider gives one double the chances of being wrong. And I should know.
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #330 on: September 01, 2018, 12:17:29 PM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 31 Aug 2018 =    22,471,089  km2, now 0.241 million km2 (1.1 %) above 2017 and 3rd lowest in the satellite record

Extent is now 594 k (2.6%) below the 2010's average.

The September interim minimum is on average on 5 Sept, just 5 days away. However, this minimum was reached earlier in 2011, 2012, and 2014, and could have been reached already, or be in as many as 20 days from now. The result from average further extent loss is 22.29 million, 4th lowest, and 0.38 million above the record low in 2012 on the 25 August. But for the very slow arctic melt this year, a new record low would have been possible.

This measure is subject to highly volatile change, and at this time especially projections of outcomes are of little value.
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Ktb

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #331 on: September 09, 2018, 06:18:01 AM »
Big loss in the antarctic today should push global sea ice extent to lowest on record. First time since late July.

Edit: don't ice while intoxicated
« Last Edit: September 09, 2018, 04:57:41 PM by Ktb »
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #332 on: September 09, 2018, 09:28:16 AM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 8 Sep 2018 = 22,240,985 km2, now 96k km2 (0.4 %) below 2017 and 2nd lowest in the satellite record  (45k > 2012 - not quite a record low Ktb)

Extent is now 779 k (3.5%) below the 2010's average.

The September interim minimum was on average on 5 Sept, 3 days before. However, this minimum was reached earlier in 2011, 2012, 2013,2014 and 2017, and could be  be in as many as 12 days from now (2008, 2010). The result from average further extent loss is 22.11 million, just 4th lowest, and 0.20 million above the record low in 2012 on the 25 August. But for the very slow arctic melt this year, a new record low would have been probable.

This measure is subject to highly volatile change, and at this time especially, projections of outcomes are of little value.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #333 on: September 10, 2018, 10:29:38 AM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 9 Sep 2018 = 22,227,260 km2, now 159k km2 (0.7 %) below 2017 and lowest in the satellite record 

Extent is now 812 k (3.7%) below the 2010's average.

The September interim minimum was on average on 5 Sept,4 days before. However, this minimum was reached earlier in 2011, 2012, 2013,2014 and 2017, and could be  be in as many as 11 days from now (2008, 2010).

The result from average further extent loss is 22.10 million, just 4th lowest, and 0.19 million above the record low in 2012 on the 25 August. But for the very slow arctic melt this year, a new record low would have been probable.

This measure is subject to highly volatile change, and at this time especially, projections of outcomes are of little value.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #334 on: September 10, 2018, 10:32:14 AM »
Extract from JAXA Graph attached. Over the coming days, the trend to watch will be against 2016 into 2017, the year in which Antarctic sea ice extent completed the collapse from the record highs of 2013 and 2014.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #335 on: September 10, 2018, 02:58:53 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent Data - Record low by 194k at 22.405 million Km2 on 9th September.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #336 on: September 11, 2018, 02:18:07 PM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 10 Sep 2018 =  22,174,535 km2, now 259k km2 (1.2 %) below 2017, 57k (0.3%) below 2016 and lowest in the satellite record 

Extent is now 905 k (4.1%) below the 2010's average.

The September interim minimum was on average on 5 Sept, 5 days before. However, this minimum was reached earlier in 2011, 2012, 2013,2014 and 2017, and could be  be in as many as 10 days from now (2008, 2010).

The minimum result from average further extent loss is 22.04 million, 3rd lowest, and 0.13 million above the record low in 2012 on the 25 August. But for the very slow arctic melt this year, a new record low would have been certain.

This measure is subject to highly volatile change, and at this time especially, projections of outcomes are of little value. However, the data does tell us that currently global sea ice is extremely low, and has been for some time. The graphs are impressive.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #337 on: September 11, 2018, 02:20:09 PM »
Extract from JAXA Graph attached. Over the coming days, the trend to watch will be against 2016 into 2017, the period in which Antarctic sea ice extent completed the collapse from the record highs of 2013 and 2014.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #338 on: September 11, 2018, 03:52:26 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent Data -  at 22.259 million Km2 on 10th September, Record low by 299k.
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #339 on: September 11, 2018, 08:21:09 PM »
The second graph within a few days where the pen is writing its line on previously untouched areas...

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #340 on: September 11, 2018, 09:42:55 PM »
The second graph within a few days where the pen is writing its line on previously untouched areas...

Yes, but with the tendency of North and South to see-saw, if it hard to say exactly what this means.

I guess we can at least say exactly that -- previously untouched.

DavidR

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #341 on: September 13, 2018, 02:21:09 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent Data -  at 22.259 million Km2 on 10th September, Record low by 299k.
The previous record global low on Sept 10th occurred in 2016 and was just 113 K km^2 above 2018. By the 12th, 2016  is record lowest again by just  26 K km^2.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #342 on: September 16, 2018, 03:25:42 PM »
NSIDC GLOBAL Daily Extent Data -  at 22.241 million Km2 on 15th September, a dead heat with 2016.

I have switched the comparison of extent from 2017 to 2016, as we are almost at the time of year when in 2016 Global extent dropped like a stone - very much due to Antarctic melt.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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charles_oil

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #343 on: September 16, 2018, 09:17:23 PM »
Ger - any chance you could differentiate 2018 a bit better - dotted / thicker line / contrasting colour ?  Many thanks

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #344 on: September 16, 2018, 09:34:25 PM »
Ger - any chance you could differentiate 2018 a bit better - dotted / thicker line / contrasting colour ?  Many thanks
Not my graph! As the name says, it is by Wipneus
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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DavidR

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #345 on: September 17, 2018, 06:53:15 AM »
Ger - any chance you could differentiate 2018 a bit better - dotted / thicker line / contrasting colour ?  Many thanks
Here's a more focussed look at this month. I  have taken out the years before 2001 but included them in Max Min and Average from 1988 - 2017.  2018 in black 2016 in red.
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charles_oil

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #346 on: September 17, 2018, 09:19:35 AM »
Thanks !

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #347 on: September 28, 2018, 10:07:23 AM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 27 Sep 2018 =   22,746,339  km2,

Extent is
- 830 k (3.6%) below the 2010's average.
- 228k km2 (1.0 %) above 2017,
- 16k km2 (0.1 %) above 2008,
- 184k (0.8%) below 2016 and
- 3rd lowest in the satellite record

There are on average 38 days to maximum. Average remaining extent gain would produce a maximum of 25.11, 2nd lowest in the satellite record. This measure is subject to highly volatile change, and projections of outcomes are of little value. However, the data does tell us that currently global sea ice is extremely low, and has been for some time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #348 on: September 30, 2018, 11:05:58 AM »
JAXA DATA - Extent as at 29 Sep 2018 =    22,789,041 km2,

Extent is
- 918 k (4.0%) below the 2010's average.
- 63k km2 (0.3 %) above 2017,
- 154k (0.7%) below 2016 and
- 2nd lowest in the satellite record

While Antarctic ice extent is dithering around the maximum (i.e. melt very slow), Arctic ice extent increase is very slow.

There are on average 36 days to maximum. Average remaining extent gain would produce a maximum of 25.04, 2nd lowest in the satellite record. This measure is subject to highly volatile change, and projections of outcomes are of little value. However, the data does tell us that currently global sea ice is extremely low, and has been for some time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #349 on: October 01, 2018, 03:34:22 AM »
2018 global extent looks set to test the 2016 lows for the rest of the year. Particularly the next 6 weeks will be very interesting.
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