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Author Topic: Global sea ice area and extent data  (Read 133344 times)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #650 on: September 12, 2019, 09:13:38 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 11 September 2019 :   22,260,424  km2

The false minimum of late August / Early September is past. So this analysis reverts to looking at the late Oct / early Nov maximum

In the last week extent has dropped, after a period of 2 weeks when overall mostly very low Arctic extent losses and somewhat above Antarctic extent gains has meant that Global Sea Ice Extent did not reduce to the false minimum but increased. Now, when extent increase is the norm, extent is reducing. Confused?

- Global extent in 3rd place, 
- extent 70 k above 2016, & 120 k above 2018.
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 6.01 million km2, 0.37 million km2 (5.7%) less than the average gain of 6.38 million km2 by this day,
-on average 70.7% of extent gain done and 54 days to the maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.91 million km2, 2nd lowest but still 1.27 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which the last 3 months Oct-Dec were the most extraordinary).
_____________________________________________________________
This is an odd and immensely irritating time of year - why can't the ice be good and stay nice and close to the average daily changes?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #651 on: September 15, 2019, 11:33:43 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 14 September 2019 :    22,219,733  km2

In the last week extent has dropped, even as "the norm" returns to extent increases to the November max.

- Global extent in 3rd place, 
- extent 188 k above 2016, & 108 k above 2018.
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 5.97 million km2, 0.42 million km2 (6.6%) less than the average gain of 6.39 million km2 by this day,
-on average 70.9% of extent gain done and 51 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.85 million km2, 2nd lowest but still 1.21 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which the last 3 months Oct-Dec were the most extraordinary).
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #652 on: September 19, 2019, 04:43:04 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 18 September 2019 :     22,191,387  km2

In the last week extent has dropped, even as "the norm" returns to extent increases to the November max.

- On this day Global extent became lowest again, making 119 days in 2019 at lowest, 
- extent 42 k below 2016, & 164 k below 2018.
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 5.94 million km2, 0.54 million km2 (8.4%) less than the average gain of 6.48 million km2 by this day,
-on average 71.9% of extent gain done and 47 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.73 million km2, 2nd lowest but still 1.09 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which Oct-Nov were the most extraordinary).
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #653 on: September 19, 2019, 05:04:45 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 18 September 2019 :     22,191,387  km2

A bit more...


I attach the graph for the entire year. Makes it obvious that 2019 was not a good year for the cryosphere

The Perils of Projections I also attach the plume of projections. In the last 10 years the remaining extent gain over the last 7 weeks or so to maximum gives a range of maxima between 23.5 and 25.5 million km2, a range of 2 million.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #654 on: September 20, 2019, 12:02:53 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 18 September 2019 :   22,149,418  km2

Extent continues to drop, even as "the norm" returns to extent increases to the November max.

- On this day Global extent lowest again, making 120 days in 2019 at lowest, 
- extent 157 k below 2016, & 274 k below 2018.
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 5.90 million km2, 0.61 million km2 (9.3%) less than the average gain of 6.51 million km2 by this day,
-on average 72.1% of extent gain done and 46 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.66 million km2, 2nd lowest but still 1.03 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which Oct-Nov were the most extraordinary).
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #655 on: September 25, 2019, 09:30:15 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 24 September 2019 :    22,497,025  km2

In the last week strong Arctic extent gains and Antarctic gains after the usual date of maximum. The result is large gains in Global Sea Ice extent.

- On this day Global extent 2nd lowest again, after 124 days at lowest in 2019 , 
- extent 185 k above 2017,
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 6.25 million km2, 0.46 million km2 (6.8%) less than the average gain of 6.70 million km2 by this day,
-on average 74.3% of extent gain done and 41 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.82 million km2, 2nd lowest but  1.18 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which Oct-Nov were the most extraordinary).
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #656 on: September 29, 2019, 01:18:49 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 28 September 2019 : 22,654,391  km2

Just several days of below average Arctic extent gains, and just one day (28 Sep) of Antarctic extent loss sees Global Extent back at lowest in the satellite record (by a smidgeon).

- On this day Global extent lowest again, 125 days at lowest in 2019 , 
- extent 25 k below 2017,
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 6.41 million km2, 0.51 million km2 (7.4%) less than the average gain of 6.92 million km2 by this day,
-on average 76.7% of extent gain done and 37 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.76 million km2, 2nd lowest but  1.12 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which Oct-Nov were the most extraordinary).
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #657 on: October 01, 2019, 01:56:07 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 28 September 2019 :  22,732,560   km2

Jaxa Global Extent stays at lowest in the satellite record (by a smidgeon).

- On this day Global extent lowest again, 126 days at lowest in 2019 , 
- extent 49 k below 2017,
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 6.48 million km2, 0.53 million km2 (7.5%) less than the average gain of 7.01 million km2 by this day,
-on average 77.7% of extent gain done and 35 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.75 million km2, 2nd lowest but  1.11 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which Oct-Nov were the most extraordinary).
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #658 on: October 01, 2019, 02:02:00 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 28 September 2019 :  22,732,560   km2

The Perils of Projections (continued)


The graph attached shows the 2+ million km2 spread of projected maxima for the last 30 days or so of Global Sea Ice extent remaining gain in the last 10 years.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #659 on: October 05, 2019, 08:30:05 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent
is still lowest on Oct 4, 2019
ranking list (values in M kmĀ²)
2019  22.75
2018  22.80
2012  22.97
2016  23.08
2017  23.10
2007  23.27
2008  23.55
2011  23.67
2010s ave 23.69
2015  23.86
2009  24.40

On the other end of the list you find the "early" years:
1980  27.23
1981  27.12
1988  27.09

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #660 on: October 06, 2019, 01:59:19 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 5 October 2019 :   22,779,042   km2

Despite Antarctic Sea Ice losses at a near standstill, well below average Arctic Sea Ice extent loss GAIN results in Jaxa Global Extent staying at lowest in the satellite record (by a smidgeon). That's for 132 days this year.

- extent 58 k below 2018, 251 k below 2012.
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 6.53 million km2, 0.69 million km2 (9.5%) less than the average gain of 7.22 million km2 by this day,
-on average 80.0% of extent gain done and 30 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.59 million km2, 2nd lowest but  0.95 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which Oct-Nov were the most extraordinary).

If, a big if, Arctic re-freeze continues to be very slow, and Antarctic extent loss speeds up to average, 2019 will give 2016 a run for its money for the remaining 30 days to maximum.
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ps: Global Sea Ice Extent on my birthday was 3.8 million km2 less than the 1980's average. That is 15 times the area of the UK. That is a lot of open water where that used to be covered with ice.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2019, 03:52:41 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #661 on: October 09, 2019, 12:56:56 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 8 October 2019 :  22,839,582 km2

Despite Antarctic Sea Ice losses continuing at a near standstill, greatly below average Arctic Sea Ice extent gain results in Jaxa Global Extent staying at lowest in the satellite record (by an even smaller smidgeon). That's lowest for 135 days this year.

- extent 20 k below 2018, 105 k below 2012.
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 6.59 million km2, 0.79 million km2 (10.8%) less than the average gain of 7.38 million km2 by this day,
-on average 81.8% of extent gain done and 27 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.48 million km2, 2nd lowest but  0.84 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which Oct-Nov were the most extraordinary).

If, a big if, Arctic re-freeze continues to be very slow, and Antarctic extent loss speeds up to average, 2019 will give 2016 a run for its money for the remaining 4 weeks to maximum.
_____________________________________________________________
« Last Edit: October 09, 2019, 01:05:31 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #662 on: October 10, 2019, 11:46:23 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 8 October 2019 :   22,792,219  km2

An Antarctic Sea Ice loss above average and an Arctic Sea Ice extent loss results in Jaxa Global Extent staying at lowest in the satellite record by a greater amount. That's lowest for 136 days this year.

- extent loss 47k, 118k less than the average GAIN of 71 k.
- extent 74 k below 2018, 229k below 2016, 439 k below 2012.
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 6.54 million km2, 0.91 million km2 (12.2%) less than the average gain of 7.46 million km2 by this day,
-on average 82.6% of extent gain done and 26 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.36 million km2, 2nd lowest but  0.72 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which Oct-Nov were the most extraordinary).

If, a big if, Arctic re-freeze continues to be very slow, and Antarctic extent loss speeds up to average, 2019 will give 2016 a run for its money for the remaining 4 weeks to maximum.

In any event, it is likely that 2019 data will continue to draw the line on the unused part of the graph paper for a week or two longer. (another hostage to fortune)
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #663 on: October 11, 2019, 08:19:54 AM »
 ;D 8) :P

winning

(I hate it when we aren't in first.)
big time oops

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #664 on: Today at 02:18:24 PM »
JAXA Glhttps://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/Themes/smf-curve1/images/bbc/img.gifobal Sea Ice Extent as at 13 October 2019 :    23,017,011 km2

Antarctic Sea Ice has stalled in the last 3 days. But well below average Arctic Sea Ice extent gain results in Jaxa Global Extent staying at lowest in the satellite record. That's lowest for 140 days this year.

- extent gain in the last 4 days 225k, 20k less than the average gain of 245 k.
- extent 228 k below 2018, 158 k below 2016, 514 k below 2012.
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 6.77 million km2, 0.93 million km2 (12.1%) less than the average gain of 7.70 million km2 by this day,
-on average 85.4% of extent gain done and 22 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.34 million km2, 2nd lowest but  0.70 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which Oct-Nov were the most extraordinary).

If, a big if, Arctic re-freeze continues to be very slow, and Antarctic extent loss speeds up to average, 2019 will give 2016 a run for its money for the remaining 4 weeks to maximum.

In any event, it is likely that 2019 data will continue to draw the line on the unused part of the graph paper for a few days more. (another hostage to fortune)
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)