Global sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :    18,486,057 km2 as at 23 March 2020

Since the last posting, Arctic Sea Ice loss has been somewhat below average & Antarctic sea ice gain also below average. As a result Global sea ice gain since the minimum is now more below average.

- On this day extent is 9th 7th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain to date 1.77 million km2, 0.23 million km2 (11.7%) less than the last 10 years' average gain of 2.00 million km2,
- Extent is 1.94 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.58 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 1.08 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.03 million km2 MORE less than the 2010's average,

- 28% of the average ice GAIN of the season done, 226 days to the average maximum date of 4 November.

The Perils of Projections

Average sea ice extent gain would produce a maximum of 25.60 million km2, 1.83 million km2 above the record low maximum of 23.76 million km2 in 2016.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   18,499,564 km2 as at 28 March 2020

Since the last posting, Arctic Sea Ice loss has continued somewhat below average & Antarctic sea ice gain also below average. As a result Global sea ice gain since the minimum is now more below average.

- On this day extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain to date 1.78 million km2, 0.66 million km2 (27 %) less than the last 10 years' average gain of 2.44 million km2,
- Extent is 1.52 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.17 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.92 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.42 million km2 less than the 2010's average,

- 36% of the average ice GAIN of the season done, 221 days to the average maximum date of 4 November.

The Perils of Projections

Average sea ice extent gain would produce a maximum of 25.21 million km2, 1.44 million km2 above the record low maximum of 23.76 million km2 in 2016.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  18,993,484 km2 as at 28 March 2020

Since the last posting, Arctic Sea Ice loss has continued close to average & Antarctic sea ice gain a bit above average. As a result Global sea ice gain this week below average.

- On this day extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain to date 2.27 million km2, 0.59 million km2 (21 %) less than the last 10 years' average gain of 2.86 million km2,
- Extent is 1.34 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.54 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 1.40 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.35 million km2 less than the 2010's average,

- 46% of the average ice GAIN of the season done, 214 days to the average maximum date of 4 November.

The Perils of Projections

Average sea ice extent gain would produce a maximum of 25.28 million km2, 1.52 million km2 above the record low maximum of 23.76 million km2 in 2016.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT : Monthly Average Sea Ic Extent graphs.

Just because I like them, here are the monthly graphs for Jan, Feb, March.

Note the increase in deviations over the years - mostly down to the Antarctic.

[Stephan]

I compared the actual JAXA sea ice extent of April 4 with the averages of the past decades.
In the Arctic the same value was achieved on average in the
2010s: 14.4. (+ 10 d later)
2000s: 23.4. (+ 19 d later)
1990s:   1.5. (+ 27 d later)
1980s: 10.5. (+ 36 d later)
In the Antarctic the same value was achieved on average in the
2010s:   4.4. (±  0 d)
2000s:   1.4. (+  3 d earlier)
1990s:   1.4. (+  3 d earlier)
1980s:   6.4. (-  2 d later)
Summarized this means more insulation respectively more freezing heat to be released in comparison to the earlier decades:
2010s:   + 10 days
2000s:   + 22 days
1990s:   + 30 days
1980s:   + 34 days,
where the changes are large in the Arctic and probably negligible in the seas around Antarcitca

[Glen Koehler]

  1) Took me a few seconds to understand the date format Day.Month, thus 1.5 = May 1.

   2) Not related to above post, but how does Antarctic sea ice volume compare to Arctic?  I suspect the average thickness in Antarctic is less than Arctic because most of the Antarctic ice melts each summer, thus no MYI.  Thus, the difference between Antarctic and Arctic in volume would be less than difference in their Extents.

  3) It just occurred to me that the name Antarctic is northern hegemonistic bias!  Why is an entire continent and the biggest reservoir of fresh water and ice on the planet named only in relation to, and as the opposite of, another region?  It should have its own name.  Antarctic liberation!

   

[philopek]

  1) Took me a few seconds to understand the date format Day.Month, thus 1.5 = May 1.  Just passing this along in case do not have Jiant brain like me.

   2) How does Antarctic sea ice volume compare to Arctic?  I suspect the average thickness in Antarctic is less than Arctic because most of the Antarctic ice melts each summer, thus no MYI.  Thus, the difference between Antarctic and Arctic in volume would be less than difference in their Extents.

  3) It just occurred to me that the name Antarctic is northern hegemonistic bias!  Why is an entire continent and the biggest reservoir of fresh water and ice on the planet named only in relation to, and as the opposite of, another region?  It should have its own name.  Antarctic liberation!

Are you on a mission ?

I liked the contribution and it's very easy to comprehend IMO, thanks Stephan.

Negative Nitpicking is a very persistent virus indeed.

[Glen Koehler]

I liked it too.

[Stephen]

  3) It just occurred to me that the name Antarctic is northern hegemonistic bias!  Why is an entire continent and the biggest reservoir of fresh water and ice on the planet named only in relation to, and as the opposite of, another region?  It should have its own name.  Antarctic liberation!

Arktos is the ancient Greek name for bear.  So the Arctic region was named after the polar bear.

There are no bears on the southernmost continent.  Penguins, being small cute and harmless, are pretty much the exact opposite of polar bears, so Antarctic seems reasonable to me.

[Glen Koehler]

Penguinia!

[Ranman99]

Sphenisciformes Land ;-)

[binntho]

Arktos is the ancient Greek name for bear.  So the Arctic region was named after the polar bear.

The greeks who coined the word had probably never heard of the polar bear. They were familiar with bears in their own mountains and had named the constellation the Great Bear after that animal.

So "arktikos" is probably, according to current thinking, referring to the great northern constellation Great Bear, and by extensions, all northern regions.

"Arktos" on the other hand seems to refer to authority, sharing a stem with "arxo" meaning "command" or "primary", as in "archaic", "archbishop" and "archangel.

[Pmt111500]

We need a Penguin constellation  over the southern sky!

[binntho]

Good one!

If we keep to the Greek naming tradition, then apparently all penguins belong to the sphenisciformae which is a typical greek - latin construct, with spheniscos being Greek for wedge.

So penguins are named "wedgeformed", probably based on the shape of their wings.

And the constellation could be called Spheniscos Minor and the continent Sphenisctica rather than now clearly obsolete Antarctica.

[Rodius]

What the hell just happened in the most serious thread on the forum?? lol

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  18,993,484 km2 as at 7 April 2020


- On this day extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain to date 2.40 million km2, 0.66 million km2 (22 %) less than the last 10 years' average gain of 3.06 million km2,
- Extent is 1.32 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.48 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 1.30 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.43 million km2 less than the 2010's average,

- 50% of the average ice GAIN of the season done, 211 days to the average maximum date of 4 November.

The Perils of Projections

Average sea ice extent gain would produce a maximum of 25.20 million km2, 1.44 million km2 above the record low maximum of 23.76 million km2 in 2016.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   19,245,290 km2 as at 11 April 2020

Arctic sea ice loss mostly above & Antarctic sea ice gain mostly below average in the last few days.

- On this day extent is 7th 5th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain to date 2.53 million km2, 0.84 million km2 (25 %) less than the last 10 years' average gain of 3.37 million km2,
- Extent is 1.16 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.34 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 1.08 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.61 million km2 less than the 2010's average,

- 58% of the average ice GAIN of the season done, 207 days to the average maximum date of 4 November.

The Perils of Projections

Average sea ice extent gain would produce a maximum of 25.01 million km2, 1.25 million km2 above the record low maximum of 23.76 million km2 in 2016.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  19,273,053  km2 as at 12 April 2020

And again - Arctic sea ice loss mostly above & Antarctic sea ice gain mostly below average in the last few days.

- On this day extent is 7th 5th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain to date 2.55 million km2, 0.89 million km2 (26 %) less than the last 10 years' average gain of 3.44 million km2,
- Extent is 1.14 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.33 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 1.01 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.66 million km2 less than the 2010's average,

- 60% of the average ice GAIN of the season done, 206 days to the average maximum date of 4 November.

The Perils of Projections

Average sea ice extent gain would produce a maximum of 24.96 million km2, 1.20 million km2 above the record low maximum of 23.76 million km2 in 2016.

This would be third lowest in the satellite record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   19,474,064  km2 as at 16 April 2020

- On this day extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain to date 2.75 million km2, 0.89 million km2 (25 %) less than the last 10 years' average gain of 3.65 million km2,
- Extent is 1.05 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.45 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 1.05 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.68 million km2 less than the 2010's average,

2020 extent is 0.74 million km2 less than in the record low maximum year of 2016.  After the next few days the daily extent gains in 2016 dropped like a stone (see graph JAXA-AA2) as the Arctic losses became above average and the Antarctic gains became below average, i.e. a double-whammy.

- 67% of the average ice GAIN of the season done, 206 days to the average maximum date of 4 November. However, there are only around 65 to 90 days to the false maximum in late June or July.

The Perils of Projections

Average sea ice extent gain would produce a maximum of 24.95 million km2, 1.19 million km2 above the record low maximum of 23.76 million km2 in 2016.

This would be third lowest in the satellite record.
[/quote]

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  19,469,849  km2 as at 16 April 2020

High Arctic Sea Ice goss and Low Antarctic Sea Ice gain in the last 2 days resulted in a small net loss of Global sea ice.
- On this day extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain to date 2.75 million km2, 1.08 million km2 (28 %) less than the last 10 years' average gain of 3.83 million km2,
- Extent is 0.88 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.36 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.89 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.87 million km2 less than the 2010's average,

- 42% of the average ice GAIN of the season done, 204 days to the average maximum date of 4 November. However, there are only around 65 to 90 days to the false maximum in late June or July followed by the false minimum in August/September

The Perils of Projections

Average sea ice extent gain would produce a maximum of 24.75 million km2, 0.99 million km2 above the record low maximum of 23.76 million km2 in 2016.

This would be third lowest in the satellite record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  19,469,849  km2 as at 16 April 2020

Antarctic extent gain mostly at or above average, and Arctic extent loiss mostly at or below average in the last week.
- On this day extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record since 1979, and the position is unchanged from a week ago,
- Extent gain to date 3.40 million km2, 0.87 million km2 (20 %) less than the last 10 years' average gain of 4.26 million km2,
- Extent is 0.87 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.72 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 1.09 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.68 million km2 less than the 2010's average,

- 47% of the average ice GAIN of the season done, 194 days to the average maximum date of 4 November. However, there are also the false maximum in late June or July followed by the false minimum in August/September before the maximum.

The Perils of Projections

Average sea ice extent gain would produce a maximum of 24.95 million km2, 1.09 million km2 above the record low maximum of 23.76 million km2 in 2016.

This would be third lowest in the satellite record.
[/quote]

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  20,735,954 KM2 as at 30-Apr-2020

- Extent gain on this day 81k, 23 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 58k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4.02 million km2, 0.57 million km2, -12.5% less than the 10 year average of 4.59 million km2.
- Extent is at position #7 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  1.50 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 50.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 188 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 25.26 million km2, 1.49 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
________________________________________
In the last few days high Antarctic sea ice gains and stalled Arctic sea ice extent losses produced well above average global sea ice extent gains.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT: April Monthly Average

The 2020 April monthly average is somewhat below trend, but not nearly as much as in the previous 3 years.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  21,016,469 KM2 as at 07-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 11k, -67 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 78k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4.30 million km2, 0.79 million km2, -15.6% less than the 10 year average of 5.09 million km2.
- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  1.36 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 55.8% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 181 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 25.05 million km2, 1.29 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
However, before that there is also the false maximum in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.

[gerontocrat]

I ought to call the attached graph "The Perils of Projections". (Thank heavens I never called them forecasts)

[gerontocrat]

Perhaps the most dramatic illustration of the difference between the trends in Arctic and the lack of trends in the Antarctic is to look at the 365 day trailing averages.

For the Arctic - the only way is down...

For the Antarctic - the only question is - (as the song says) "What's going on?".

[The Walrus]

Almost as if someone threw a switch in Antarctica during 2016. 

[Stephan]

I evaluated the actual JAXA extent data and compared it with the decadal averages. The actual Arctic Sea Ice Extent was reached 2 days later than today in the 2010s, the actual Antarctic Sea Ice Extent was reached 4 days earlier in the 2010s. This is in sum a difference of 6 days.
Compared to the other decades following differences were observed:
2000s: Arctic +12 days, Antarctic - 6 days, sum = 18 days
1990s: Arctic +24 days, Antarctic - 5 days, sum = 29 days
1980s: Arctic +34 days, Antarctic - 2 days, sum = 36 days
This means more open waters and more warming potential by insulation in the Arctic compared to earlier decades, and more available potential freezing heat in the Antarctic.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  21,249,824 KM2 as at 12-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 1k, 53 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4.53 million km2, 0.77 million km2, 14.5% less than the 10 year average of 5.30 million km2.
- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  1.17 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 58.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 176 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.06 million km2, 1.29 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
However, before that there is also the false maximum in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  21,202,143 KM2 as at 14-May-2020

- Extent LOSS on this day 95k, 154 k less than the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 59k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4.48 million km2, 0.98 million km2, 17.9% less than the 10 year average of 5.46 million km2.
- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  1.04 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 59.9% of freezing from minimum to maximum done, and 174 days to maximum

A record Arctic daily sea ice loss + a low Antarctic daily sea ice gain = a record Global daily sea ice loss for May.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.86 million km2, 1.10 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.

However, before that there is also the false maximum in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.

[oren]

From the nitpickers department, this seems to not belong here:
On average 59.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 174 days to minimum

[gerontocrat]

From the nitpickers department, this seems to not belong here:
On average 59.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 174 days to minimum

Forgot to re-program the autopilot (again)

[gerontocrat]

A combination of low Antarctic sea ice gain & very high Arctic sea ice loss results in a 2nd day of Global sea ice loss. Not that unusual, though the 95K loss on the 14th was a record breaker for May.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  21,164,506 KM2 as at 15-May-2020

- Extent LOSS on this day 38k, 105 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 67k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 4.45 million km2, 1.09 million km2, 19.8% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.54 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  1.01 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 60.6% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 173 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.76 million km2, 1.00 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
However, before that there is also the false maximum in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.

[Stephan]

I evaluated the actual JAXA extent data and compared it with the decadal averages. The actual Arctic Sea Ice Extent was reached 6 days later than today in the 2010s, the actual Antarctic Sea Ice Extent was reached 4 days earlier in the 2010s. This is in sum a difference of 10 days.
Compared to the other decades following differences were observed:
2000s: Arctic +18 days, Antarctic - 7 days, sum = 25 days
1990s: Arctic +29 days, Antarctic - 6 days, sum = 35 days
1980s: Arctic +39 days, Antarctic - 2 days, sum = 41 days
This means more open waters and more warming potential by insulation in the Arctic compared to earlier decades, and more available potential freezing heat in the Antarctic.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  21,175,532 KM2 as at 16-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 11k, 54 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 65k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 4.46 million km2, 1.15 million km2, 20.6% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.61 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.98 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 61.4% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 172 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.71 million km2, 0.94 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
However, before that there is also the false maximum in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  21,525,802 KM2 as at 21-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 61k, 1 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 60k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 4.81 million km2, 1.07 million km2, 18.2% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.88 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.97 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 64.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 167 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.79 million km2, 1.03 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
However, before that there is also the false maximum in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  21,867,032 KM2 as at 25-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 85k, 61 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.15 million km2, 0.91 million km2, 15.0% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.06 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.94 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 66.5% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 163 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.92 million km2, 1.16 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
However, before that there is also the false maximum in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.

[Stephan]

I evaluated the actual JAXA extent data (May 29) and compared it with the decadal averages. The actual Arctic Sea Ice Extent was reached 6 days later than today in the 2010s, the actual Antarctic Sea Ice Extent was reached 2 days earlier in the 2010s. This is in sum a difference of 8 days.
Compared to the other decades following differences were observed:
2000s: Arctic +17 days, Antarctic - 5 days, sum = 22 days
1990s: Arctic +26 days, Antarctic - 3 days, sum = 29 days
1980s: Arctic +37 days, Antarctic + 1 day, sum = 36 days
This means more open waters and more warming potential by insulation in the Arctic compared to earlier decades, and more available potential freezing heat in the Antarctic.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,410,186 KM2 as at 31-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 78k, 27 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 51k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.69 million km2, 0.68 million km2, 10.6% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.37 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  1.24 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 69.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 157 days to maximum

Mostly above average Antarctic sea ice extent gain and below average Arctic sea ice extent loss in the last week.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.17 million km2, 1.41 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.

However, before that there is also the false maximum in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.

[gerontocrat]

May monthly average graph attached. May result was below trend.

[blumenkraft]

58 red months in a row...

[Stephan]

...and I see no chance of the next months to turn into blue.
Thanks blumenkraft for posting this.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,755,070 KM2 as at 06-Jun-2020

- Extent gain on this day 31k, 29 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 60k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.04 million km2, 0.70 million km2, 10.4% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.74 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  1.21 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 73.9% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 151 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.14 million km2, 1.38 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
However, before that there is also the false maximum in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.

[Stephan]

However, before that there is also the false maximum in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.

gerontocrat,
thank you for your continuous work in the data threads.
I noticed the false maximum (July/June) and how it shifts towards earlier times in the last decades. I think the stronger melting season in the Arctic is responsible for that shift.

[gerontocrat]

gerontocrat,
I noticed the false maximum (July/June) and how it shifts towards earlier times in the last decades. I think the stronger melting season in the Arctic is responsible for that shift.

There is a trend in the Arctic - the Antarctic remains a puzzle. Meanwhile - an above average Arctic sea ice daily loss + a below average Antarctic sea ice daily gain = Global Sea Ice loss on this day. Unusual but not unknown.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,770,471 KM2 as at 08-Jun-2020

- Extent gain on this day 25k, 87 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 62k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.05 million km2, 0.81 million km2, 11.8% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.86 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  1.02 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 75.2% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 149 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.03 million km2, 1.27 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
However, before that there is also the false maximum in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.

[Stephan]

I compared the actual JAXA sea ice extent of June 12 with the averages of the past decades.
In the Arctic the same value was achieved on average in the
2010s: 16.6. (+   4 d later)
2000s: 26.6. (+ 14 d later)
1990s:   6.7. (+ 24 d later)
1980s: 15.7. (+ 33 d later)
In the Antarctic the same value was achieved on average in the
2010s:  10.6. (+ 2 d earlier)
2000s:    8.6. (+ 4 d earlier)
1990s:  10.6. (+ 2 d earlier)
1980s:  13.6. (-  1 d later)
Summarized this means more insolation in the Arctic respectively more freezing heat to be released around Antrarctica in comparison to the earlier decades:
2010s:   +   6 days
2000s:   + 18 days
1990s:   + 26 days
1980s:   + 32 days,
where the changes are large in the Arctic and probably negligible in the seas around Antarctica.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,218,761 KM2 as at 14-Jun-2020

- Extent gain on this day 101k, 50 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 51k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.50 million km2, 0.67 million km2, 09.4% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.17 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  1.02 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 78.4% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 143 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.20 million km2, 1.43 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
However, before that there is also the false maximum in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,262,389 KM2 as at 16-Jun-2020


An above average daily Arctic sea ice extent loss + a below average daily Antarctic sea ice gain = a small Global sea Ice extent loss

- Extent LOSS on this day 9k, 47 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 38k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.54 million km2, 0.74 million km2, 10.1% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.28 million km2.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.96 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 79.6% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 141 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.13 million km2, 1.36 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
However, before that there is also the false maximum rapidly approaching in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,224,999 KM2 as at 17-Jun-2020


An above average daily Arctic sea ice extent loss + a below average daily Antarctic sea ice gain = a Global sea Ice extent loss for a second day

- Extent gain loss on this day 37k, 79 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 42k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.51 million km2, 0.81 million km2, 11.1% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.32 million km2.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.88 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 80.1% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 140 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.05 million km2, 1.29 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
However, before that there is also the false maximum rapidly approaching in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,343,195 KM2 as at 20-Jun-2020

- Extent gain on this day 56k, 27 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 29k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.62 million km2, 0.80 million km2, 10.7% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.42 million km2.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.82 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 81.1% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 137 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.07 million km2, 1.31 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
However, before that there is also the false maximum rapidly approaching in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.