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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #850 on: September 03, 2020, 11:44:51 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,187,904 KM2 as at 02-Sep-2020

- Extent loss on this day 75k, 71 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 4k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.47 million km2, 0.88 million km2, 13.8% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.35 million km2.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  -0.12 million km2 LESS than 2019,
On average 69.9% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 63 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.92 million km2, 1.16 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now almost at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of (on average)  early September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
After a long period of extent gains in contrast to nomal extent losses, on this day an above average extent loss for a fourth day. This is yet again due to an unusual Antarctic sea ice extent loss and an above average Arctic sea ice extent loss.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #851 on: September 10, 2020, 11:54:15 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,183,774 KM2 as at 09-Sep-2020

- Extent gain on this day 15k, 0 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 15k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.46 million km2, 0.85 million km2, 13.4% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.31 million km2.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  -0.11 million km2 LESS than 2019,
On average 69.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 56 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.93 million km2, 1.17 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of early September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #852 on: September 12, 2020, 08:13:05 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,289,738 KM2 as at 11-Sep-2020

- Extent gain on this day 73k, 59 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 14k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.57 million km2, 0.78 million km2, 12.3% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.35 million km2.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.03 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 70.1% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 54 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.99 million km2, 1.23 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached at the end of June. We are at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Very large Antarctic extent gains have changed Global sea ice extent from lowest to 4th lowest in just 2 days.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #853 on: September 16, 2020, 01:43:29 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,466,388 KM2 as at 15-Sep-2020

- Extent gain on this day 36k, 15 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.75 million km2, 0.64 million km2, 10.0% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.39 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.22 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 70.5% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 50 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.14 million km2, 1.37 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Antarctic sea ice gains continue well above average and are the main driver of global sea ice extent increase.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #854 on: September 20, 2020, 12:05:59 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,480,396 KM2 as at 19-Sep-2020

- Extent LOSS on this day 33k, 48 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 15k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.76 million km2, 0.72 million km2, 11.2% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.48 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.33 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 71.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 46 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.09 million km2, 1.32 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.[/i]

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
An extent loss when one might expect an extent gain continues the story of a somewhat chaotic year so far- global sea ice has pretty much ignored the timetable.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #855 on: September 20, 2020, 09:33:23 PM »
Quote from gerontocrat:
"- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record"
All top five years are the last five years.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #856 on: September 21, 2020, 12:23:19 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,449,801 KM2 as at 20-Sep-2020

- Extent LOSS on this day 31k, 91 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 60k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.73 million km2, 0.82 million km2, 12.5% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.55 million km2.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.25 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 72.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 45 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.99 million km2, 1.23 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Yet another day with an extent loss instead of an extent gain - due to Antarctic sea ice xtent loss and zero Arctic sea ice extent gain. Extent down to 4th lowest from 5th lowest,
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #857 on: September 23, 2020, 01:23:18 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,528,057 KM2 as at 22-Sep-2020

- Extent gain on this day 83k, 34 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 49k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.81 million km2, 0.83 million km2, 12.5% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.64 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.24 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 73.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 43 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.98 million km2, 1.22 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
For a change an extent increase when one was expected
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #858 on: September 24, 2020, 11:31:25 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,658,874 KM2 as at 23-Sep-2020

- Extent gain on this day 131k, 105 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.94 million km2, 0.72 million km2, 10.8% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.66 million km2.
- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.29 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 73.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 42 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.09 million km2, 1.33 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Both Arctic and Antarctic daily extent gains higher than average on this day.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #859 on: September 26, 2020, 01:48:56 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,897,229 KM2 as at 25-Sep-2020

- Extent gain on this day 162k, 121 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.18 million km2, 0.53 million km2, 8.0% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.71 million km2.
- Extent is at position #8 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.34 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 74.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 40 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.26 million km2, 1.50 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,897,229 KM2 as at 25-Sep-2020

- Extent gain on this day 162k, 121 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.18 million km2, 0.53 million km2, 8.0% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.71 million km2.
- Extent is at position #8 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.34 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 74.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 40 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.26 million km2, 1.50 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Both Arctic and Antarctic daily extent gains much higher than average on this day, resulting in an extreme global sea ice extent gain to add to above average increases in the 3 days before.

As a result Global sea ice extent now 8th lowest in the sateliite record from 4th lowest on the 21st September. .

___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #860 on: September 28, 2020, 12:59:30 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,909,231 KM2 as at 27-Sep-2020

- Extent loss on this day 33k, 111 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 78k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.19 million km2, 0.65 million km2, 9.6% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.84 million km2.
- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.25 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 75.5% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 38 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 25.14 million km2, 1.37 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Wild swings from gains to losses.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #861 on: October 01, 2020, 01:27:16 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,858,497 KM2 as at 30-Sep-2020

- Extent loss on this day 6k, 57 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 51k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.14 million km2, 0.87 million km2, 12.4% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.01 million km2.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.13 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 77.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 35 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.92 million km2, 1.16 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #862 on: October 01, 2020, 01:30:56 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent - a bit more...

I attach the september monthly average of daily extent. Of interest is that from 2016 onwards the average has been very much the same. It seems that Acric and Antractic extent variations have more or less cancelled each other out.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #863 on: October 04, 2020, 01:52:57 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,924,660 KM2 as at 03-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 49k, 12 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 37k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.21 million km2, 0.88 million km2, 12.4% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.09 million km2.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.19 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 78.2% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 32 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.90 million km2, 1.14 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Arctic sea ice gain slow, Antarctic sea ice extent loss low or in reverse, i.e. daily gain. Nevertheless, Global sea ice extent down to 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #864 on: October 08, 2020, 01:13:08 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,986,938 KM2 as at 07-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 18k, 45 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 63k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.27 million km2, 1.07 million km2, 14.6% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.34 million km2.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.14 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 80.9% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 28 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.72 million km2, 0.95 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Arctic sea ice gain slow, Antarctic sea ice extent loss low. Result? Global sea ice extent stays at 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #865 on: October 08, 2020, 10:04:33 PM »
We are again more than 2 M km² below the 2000s average.

I checked JAXA and found that the last day of global sea ice extent higher than the 2000s average was December 3rd of 2015.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #866 on: October 11, 2020, 10:20:01 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,058,363 KM2 as at 10-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 12k, 51 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 63k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.34 million km2, 1.17 million km2, 15.6% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.51 million km2.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.24 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 82.8% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 25 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.62 million km2, 0.86 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #867 on: October 12, 2020, 01:16:52 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,059,606 KM2 as at 11-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 1k, 60 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 61k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.34 million km2, 1.25 million km2, 16.4% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.59 million km2.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.18 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 83.5% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 24 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.56 million km2, 0.80 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Arctic sea ice gain below average, Antarctic sea ice extent loss above average. Result? Global sea ice extent now at 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #868 on: October 12, 2020, 08:25:41 PM »
Quote from gerontocrat:

"N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum."

I checked the JAXA graphs of the years from 1979 to 2019.
To have a higher July "false" maximum than the "real" maximum early November in 2020 global sea ice extent must not exceed 23.57 M km². This means an increase of max. 0.50 M km² from now on until November.
2016 kept below that threshold and became the first year with the annual maximum in July.
But there are several other years in which the increase from Oct 11 to the November maximum was smaller than 0.50 M km². That were 1980, 1981, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1991, 1992, 1996 and 2000.
Of course in those times much larger portions of the Arctic were already ice covered which are now still open waters. Therefore the increase rate in 2020 until November should be larger than in those years. Anyway, if Antarctic sea ice extent will lose much more than average until then it may be possible that 2020 follows 2016's example.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #869 on: October 14, 2020, 12:39:27 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,185,786 KM2 as at 13-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 63k, 11 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 52k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.47 million km2, 1.23 million km2, 16.0% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.70 million km2.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.17 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 84.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 22 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.58 million km2, 0.81 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June, the false minimum reached in early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #870 on: October 14, 2020, 01:57:57 PM »
I guess 2017 was a relatively "good" year for the late 2010s, given as it is not shown in the chart?
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #871 on: October 16, 2020, 11:12:25 AM »
I guess 2017 was a relatively "good" year for the late 2010s, given as it is not shown in the chart?
As you can see from table AA3 above, on this day 2017 global sea ice extent was 866k above 2020.
I only put record years and 10 year averages on the graphs to avoid clutter. Other people prefer to include all years for completeness.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #872 on: October 16, 2020, 11:19:50 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,220,038 KM2 as at 15-Oct-2020

- Extent loss on this day 1k, 96 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 95k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.50 million km2, 1.40 million km2, 17.7% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.90 million km2.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.13 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 86.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 20 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.43 million km2, 0.67 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are at the end of extent losses up to the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
A very low arctic extent gain and average antarctic extent loss on this day moves global sea ice extent from 3rd to 2nd lowest.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #873 on: October 16, 2020, 12:05:07 PM »
I guess 2017 was a relatively "good" year for the late 2010s, given as it is not shown in the chart?
As you can see from table AA3 above, on this day 2017 global sea ice extent was 866k above 2020.
I only put record years and 10 year averages on the graphs to avoid clutter. Other people prefer to include all years for completeness.
Yeah, I should have looked at the table. Sorry and thanks, gerontocrant.
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #874 on: October 17, 2020, 11:13:38 AM »
Quote from gerontocrat:

"N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum."

I checked the JAXA graphs of the years from 1979 to 2019.
To have a higher July "false" maximum than the "real" maximum early November in 2020 global sea ice extent must not exceed 23.57 M km². This means an increase of max. 0.50 M km² from now on until November.
2016 kept below that threshold and became the first year with the annual maximum in July.
But there are several other years in which the increase from Oct 11 to the November maximum was smaller than 0.50 M km². That were 1980, 1981, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1991, 1992, 1996 and 2000.
Lower than average increases in the Arctic and at/above average losses in the Antarctic led to an slower increase in global sea ice extent.
Today the max. increase must stay below 0.35 M km². Both 1980s and 1990s average stayed below this threshhold. Therefore the probability that the "false" maximum in July finaly is the largest global sea ice extent in 2020 is rising.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #875 on: October 17, 2020, 12:17:53 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,222,212 KM2 as at 16-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 2k, 89 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 91k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.50 million km2, 1.48 million km2, 18.6% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.98 million km2.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.05 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 87.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 19 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.34 million km2, 0.58 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. Extent losses finished at the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
In the Arctic it's the freezing season, but on this day a 10k extent loss.
In the Antarctic it's the melting season, but on this day a 12k extent gain.

Result, a very low 2k extent gain, which is more ammunition for Stephan's statement "Therefore the probability that the "false" maximum in July finally is the largest global sea ice extent in 2020 is rising".
___________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #876 on: October 18, 2020, 10:45:41 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,219,520 KM2 as at 17-Oct-2020

- Extent LOSS on this day 3k, 64 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 61k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.50 million km2, 1.54 million km2, 19.1% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.04 million km2.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.01 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 88.4% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 18 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.28 million km2, 0.51 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. Extent losses finished at the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
In the Arctic it's the freezing season, but on this day a very low extent gain of 30k.
In the Antarctic it's the melting season, but on this day a very low extent loss of 33k.

Result, an 3k extent loss, continuing the stall in global sea ice extent gain to maximum.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #877 on: October 19, 2020, 11:16:01 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,231,645 KM2 as at 18-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 12k, 75 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 87k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.51 million km2, 1.61 million km2, 19.8% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.12 million km2.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  -0.07 million km2 LESS than 2019,
On average 89.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 17 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.20 million km2, 0.44 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. Extent losses finished at the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
In the Arctic on this day a very low extent gain of 41k.
In the Antarctic on this day a very low extent loss of 29k.

Result, a very low 12k global sea ice extent gain.

The current projected maximum of 24.2 million km2 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and is entirely due to the record low Arctic sea ice extent
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
« Last Edit: October 19, 2020, 01:21:21 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #878 on: October 20, 2020, 12:43:22 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,274,459 KM2 as at 19-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 43k, 51 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 94k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.56 million km2, 1.66 million km2, 20.2% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.21 million km2.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  -0.11 million km2 LESS than 2019,
On average 90.4% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 16 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.15 million km2, 0.39 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. Extent losses finished at the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Only very slow Antractic extent losses prevent global sea ice extent mving from 2nd lowest to lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #879 on: October 20, 2020, 07:13:30 PM »
A short check about the "maximum maximum" that should be expected early November:

To make 2020 have its maximum in July global sea ice extent (23.57 M km²) must not exceed an increase of 0.29 M km². From yesterday on this increase is not to expect anymore from a track like the 1980s and 1990s averages.
An increase of 0.29 M km² would be realised until October 24 (track of 2000s average) or October 23 (track of 2010s average), respectively. As a lot of open water exists in the Arctic it seems likely that 2020's global sea ice extent will increase by (far) more than 0.29 M km² until early November.
Two things must happen at the same time to avoid this:
1. A further very slow increase in the Arctic for at least two weeks.
2. A (much) higher decrease than average around Antarctica every day in the next two weeks.
If the 2020's curve manages to stay below 23.57 M km² until around Nov 10, then the strongly increasing seasonal losses around Antarctica will make up for a later and faster Arctic extent increase.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #880 on: October 21, 2020, 11:21:28 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,297,849 KM2 as at 20-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 23k, 28 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 51k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.58 million km2, 1.68 million km2, 20.4% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.26 million km2.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  -0.15 million km2 LESS than 2019,
On average 90.9% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 15 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.12 million km2, 0.36 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. Extent losses finished at the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
In the Arctic on this day a low extent gain of 62k.
In the Antarctic on this day a low extent loss of 38k.

Result, a low 23k global sea ice extent gain, and global sea ice extent now lowest in the satellite record.

The current projected maximum of 24.1 million km2 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and is entirely due to the record low Arctic sea ice extent

___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size
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