Global sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  18,312,065 KM2 as at 18-Oct-2022

- Area gain on this day 21k, which is 27 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 48k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.32 million km2, 0.30 million km2, 6.5% less than the 10 year average gain of 4.62 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Area is  3.48 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  0.90 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  1.25 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.15 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.36 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  0.45 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  0.81 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 78.9% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 16 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 19.55 million km2, 0.48 million km2 above the 2016 record low sea ice area maximum of 19.07 million km, and at position #3 in the 44 year satellite record
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This year (2022) the false maximum passed  very early on 22nd May instead of mid-June. From now average daily losses last until the false minimum in early/mid September. Sea ice Area then makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November .

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached in mid-June. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
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Recent high sea ice gains in the Arctic have been more than offset by very high sea ice losses in the Antarctic.
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,976,143 KM2 as at 19-Oct-2022

- Extent gain on this day 68k, which is 24 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 92k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.84 million km2, 0.06 million km2, 0.7% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.90 million km2.

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record

- Extent is  -3.10 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.78 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.71 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.59 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  0.59 million km2 MORE than 2019
- Extent is  0.70 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Extent is  -0.55 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 90.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 15 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 24.86 million km2, 1.09 million km2 above the record low of 23.76 million KM2 in 2016, and at position #3 in the 44 year satellite record
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  18,311,700 KM2 as at 19-Oct-2022

- Area loss on this day 0k, which is 61 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 61k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.32 million km2, 0.36 million km2, 7.7% less than the 10 year average gain of 4.68 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Area is  3.51 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  0.97 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  1.24 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.25 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.35 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  0.49 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  0.81 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 79.9% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 15 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 19.49 million km2, 0.41 million km2 above the 2016 record low sea ice area maximum of 19.07 million km, and at position #2 in the 44 year satellite record
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,011,757 KM2 as at 20-Oct-2022

- Extent gain on this day 36k, which is 25 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 61k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.88 million km2, 0.08 million km2, 1.0% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.96 million km2.

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record

- Extent is  -3.09 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.79 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.65 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.61 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  0.56 million km2 MORE than 2019
- Extent is  0.71 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Extent is  -0.63 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 90.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 14 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 24.83 million km2, 1.07 million km2 above the record low of 23.76 million KM2 in 2016, and at position #3 in the 44 year satellite record
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  18,295,789 KM2 as at 20-Oct-2022

- Area loss on this day 16k, which is 77 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 61k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.30 million km2, 0.44 million km2, 9.3% less than the 10 year average gain of 4.74 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Area is  3.54 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.05 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  1.18 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.42 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.30 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  0.54 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  0.81 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 81.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 14 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 19.41 million km2, 0.34 million km2 above the 2016 record low sea ice area maximum of 19.07 million km, and at position #2 in the 44 year satellite record
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This year (2022) the false maximum passed  very early on 22nd May instead of mid-June. From now average daily losses last until the false minimum in early/mid September. Sea ice Area then makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November .

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached in mid-June. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,994,055 KM2 as at 21-Oct-2022

- Extent loss on this day 18k, which is 73 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 55k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.86 million km2, 0.16 million km2, 1.9% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.02 million km2.

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record

- Extent is  -3.13 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.88 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.56 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.66 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  0.49 million km2 MORE than 2019
- Extent is  0.65 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Extent is  -0.67 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 91.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 13 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 24.76 million km2, 1.00 million km2 above the record low of 23.76 million KM2 in 2016, and at position #3 in the 44 year satellite record
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,250,889 KM2 as at 30-Dec-1899

- Extent gain on this day 76k, which is 14 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 62k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8.12 million km2, 0.09 million km2, 1.1% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.21 million km2.

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record

- Extent is  -2.93 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.82 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.72 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.56 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  0.56 million km2 MORE than 2019
- Extent is  0.61 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Extent is  -0.57 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 93.5% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 10 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 24.82 million km2, 1.06 million km2 above the record low of 23.76 million KM2 in 2016, and at position #3 in the 44 year satellite record
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  18,568,777 KM2 as at 24-Oct-2022

- Area gain on this day 119k, which is 62 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 57k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.57 million km2, 0.44 million km2, 8.8% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.02 million km2.

- AREA is 3rd lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Area is  3.41 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.09 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  1.12 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.77 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.05 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  0.40 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  0.73 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 85.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 10 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 19.40 million km2, 0.33 million km2 above the 2016 record low sea ice area maximum of 19.07 million km, and at position #2 in the 44 year satellite record
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,349,345 KM2 as at 25-Oct-2022

- Extent gain on this day 98k, which is 46 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 52k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8.22 million km2, 0.05 million km2, 0.5% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.26 million km2.

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record

- Extent is  -2.84 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.78 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.85 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.53 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  0.56 million km2 MORE than 2019
- Extent is  0.63 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Extent is  -0.50 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 94.1% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 9 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 24.87 million km2, 1.11 million km2 above the record low of 23.76 million KM2 in 2016, and at position #3 in the 44 year satellite record
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  18,658,694 KM2 as at 25-Oct-2022

- Area gain on this day 118k, which is 62 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 56k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.66 million km2, 0.41 million km2, 8.1% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.07 million km2.

- AREA is 3rd lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Area is  3.34 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.07 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  1.14 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.77 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.04 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  0.35 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  0.69 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 86.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 9 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 19.44 million km2, 0.37 million km2 above the 2016 record low sea ice area maximum of 19.07 million km, and at position #2 in the 44 year satellite record
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,521,882 KM2 as at 26-Oct-2022

- Extent gain on this day 173k, which is 90 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 83k,

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record

- Extent is  -2.67 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.68 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.02 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.54 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  0.54 million km2 MORE than 2019
- Extent is  0.71 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Extent is  -0.40 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 95.1% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 8 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 24.96 million km2, 1.20 million km2 above the record low of 23.76 million KM2 in 2016, and at position #3 in the 44 year satellite record
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,670,109 KM2 as at 27-Oct-2022

- Extent gain on this day 148k, which is 86 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 62k,

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record

- Extent is  -2.54 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.61 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.14 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.47 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  0.54 million km2 MORE than 2019
- Extent is  0.82 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Extent is  -0.29 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 95.8% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 7 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 25.04 million km2, 1.28 million km2 above the record low of 23.76 million KM2 in 2016, and at position #5 in the 44 year satellite record
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Recent very high Arctic sea ice gains plus below average Antarctic sea ice losses results in extreme global sea ice gains
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,708,725 KM2 as at 28-Oct-2022

- Extent gain on this day 39k, which is 5 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 34k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8.58 million km2, 0.14 million km2, 1.6% more than the 10 year average gain of 8.44 million km2.

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record

- Extent is  -2.51 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.60 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.25 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.44 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  0.43 million km2 MORE than 2019
- Extent is  0.75 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Extent is  -0.23 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 96.1% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 6 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 25.05 million km2, 1.29 million km2 above the record low of 23.76 million KM2 in 2016, and at position #5 in the 44 year satellite record
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  19,075,293 KM2 as at 28-Oct-2022

- Area gain on this day 152k, which is 98 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 5.08 million km2, 0.16 million km2, 3.0% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.24 million km2.

- AREA is 4th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Area is  2.94 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  0.85 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  1.47 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.61 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.07 million km2 MORE than 2018
- Area is  0.00 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  0.40 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 89.9% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 6 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 19.66 million km2, 0.59 million km2 above the 2016 record low sea ice area maximum of 19.07 million km, and at position #4 in the 44 year satellite record
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,789,068 KM2 as at 29-Oct-2022

- Extent gain on this day 80k, which is 41 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 39k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8.66 million km2, 0.18 million km2, 2.1% more than the 10 year average gain of 8.48 million km2.

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record

- Extent is  -2.43 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.53 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.35 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.30 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  0.46 million km2 MORE than 2019
- Extent is  0.61 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Extent is  -0.18 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 96.6% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 5 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 25.08 million km2, 1.32 million km2 above the record low of 23.76 million KM2 in 2016, and at position #5 in the 44 year satellite record
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It is extreme Arctic sea ice gains in the last week tht is driving this late surge in global sea ice extent
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  19,236,758 KM2 as at 29-Oct-2022

- Area gain on this day 161k, which is 101 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 60k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 5.24 million km2, 0.06 million km2, 1.1% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.30 million km2.

- AREA is 5th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Area is  2.80 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  0.76 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  1.62 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.54 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.17 million km2 MORE than 2018
- Area is  0.11 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Area is  0.30 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 93.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 6 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 19.64 million km2, 1.86 million km2 above the 2016 record low sea ice area maximum of 19.07 million km, and at position #3 in the 44 year satellite record
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This year (2022) the false maximum passed  very early on 22nd May instead of mid-June. From now average daily losses last until the false minimum in early/mid September. Sea ice Area then makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November .

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached in mid-June. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

The graphs attached - from Nico Sun - show why Global sea ice area is currently surging.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,873,329 KM2 as at 30-Oct-2022

- Extent gain on this day 84k, which is 16 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 68k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8.74 million km2, 0.19 million km2, 2.3% more than the 10 year average gain of 8.55 million km2.

- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record

- Extent is  -2.34 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.47 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.44 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.17 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  0.46 million km2 MORE than 2019
- Extent is  0.44 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Extent is  -0.07 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 97.5% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 4 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 25.09 million km2, 1.33 million km2 above the record low of 23.76 million KM2 in 2016, and at position #5 in the 44 year satellite record
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  19,414,059 KM2 as at 30-Oct-2022

- Area gain on this day 177k, which is 122 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 55k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 5.42 million km2, 0.07 million km2, 1.2% more than the 10 year average gain of 5.35 million km2.

- AREA is 5th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Area is  2.64 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  0.64 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  1.85 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.44 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.28 million km2 MORE than 2018
- Area is  0.23 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Area is  0.22 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 93.8% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 5 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 19.77 million km2, 1.99 million km2 above the 2016 record low sea ice area maximum of 19.07 million km, and at position #4 in the 44 year satellite record
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,870,726 KM2 as at 31-Oct-2022

- Extent loss on this day 3k, which is 66 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 63k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8.74 million km2, 0.13 million km2, 1.5% more than the 10 year average gain of 8.61 million km2.

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record

- Extent is  -2.34 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.55 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.44 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.19 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  0.36 million km2 MORE than 2019
- Extent is  0.27 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Extent is  -0.09 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 98.2% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 3 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 25.03 million km2, 1.27 million km2 above the record low of 23.76 million KM2 in 2016, and at position #5 in the 44 year satellite record
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT: Another month gone

The October 22 monthly average sea ice extent is 23.80 million km2, 5th lowest in the satellite record, 0.23 million Km2 below the long-term linear trend, and 0.34 million km2 less than the October '21 monthly average.

With 10 months of the year gone, it seems likely that without significantly lower than average daily sea ice gains in November & December, the daily average sea ice extent for the year will be higher than in 2021.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT: Another month gone

During October the 365 day trailing average declined. However, average sea ice gains and losses from now on would cause the average to increase over the next year or so, but staying below the long-term linear trend.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,764,372 KM2 as at 01-Nov-2022

- Extent loss on this day 106k, which is 135 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 29k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8.63 million km2, 0.01 million km2, 0.1% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.64 million km2.

- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record

- Extent is  -2.44 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.73 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.28 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.31 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  0.18 million km2 MORE than 2019
- Extent is  0.06 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Extent is  -0.17 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 98.6% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 2 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 24.88 million km2, 1.12 million km2 above the record low of 23.76 million KM2 in 2016, and at position #3 in the 44 year satellite record
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Low Arctic sea ice gain and very high Antactic sea ice loss on this day produces a big fall in global sea ice extent. Just maybe the maximum happened on 30 Oct at 24.87 million km2.
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  19,636,920 KM2 as at 01-Nov-2022

- Area gain on this day 83k, which is 21 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 62k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 5.64 million km2, 0.17 million km2, 3.1% more than the 10 year average gain of 5.47 million km2.

- AREA is 5th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Area is  2.48 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  0.51 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  2.14 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.31 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.44 million km2 MORE than 2018
- Area is  0.28 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Area is  0.17 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 95.9% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 3 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 19.87 million km2, 2.10 million km2 above the 2016 record low sea ice area maximum of 19.07 million km, and at position #5 in the 44 year satellite record
___________________________________________________
While Jaxa Global sea ice extent may have reached the maximum on 30 October, not much sign of it in the NSIDC 5-day area data.
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,747,476 KM2 as at 02-Nov-2022

- Extent loss on this day 17k, which is 43 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8.61 million km2, 0.05 million km2, 0.6% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.67 million km2.

- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record

- Extent is  -2.44 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.78 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.18 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.31 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  0.15 million km2 MORE than 2019
- Extent is  -0.10 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -0.15 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 99.1% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 1 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 24.87 million km2, 1.11 million km2 above the record low of 23.76 million KM2 in 2016, and at position #3 in the 44 year satellite record
___________________________________________________
Remaining sea ice gain in 8 of the last 10 years give the 2022 maximum having been reached on the 30 Oct at 24.87 million km2.
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  19,684,003 KM2 as at 02-Nov-2022

- Area gain on this day 47k, which is 6 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 5.69 million km2, 0.18 million km2, 3.2% more than the 10 year average gain of 5.51 million km2.

- AREA is 5th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Area is  2.46 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  0.50 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  2.22 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.25 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.46 million km2 MORE than 2018
- Area is  0.24 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Area is  0.12 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 97.6% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 2 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 19.82 million km2, 2.05 million km2 above the 2016 record low sea ice area maximum of 19.07 million km, and at position #5 in the 44 year satellite record
___________________________________________________
Maximum not here yet... but close?
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

The first image attached shows that all of the last 10 years have either passed the date of maximum, or remaing melt is too low to suggest the 2022 maximum has not been reached.
So I declare the maximum for 2022 Global Sea Ice Extent happened on the 30th October at 24.87 million km2, 3rd lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

If I end up wrong I will not admit it.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,734,807 KM2 as at 03-Nov-2022

- Extent loss on this day 13k, which is 30 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 17k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8.60 million km2, 0.08 million km2, 0.9% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.68 million km2.

- Extent is 3th lowest in the satellite record

- Extent is  -2.44 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.81 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.11 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.35 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  0.15 million km2 MORE than 2019
- Extent is  -0.18 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -0.15 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 99.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 0 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 24.87 million km2, 1.11 million km2 above the record low of 23.76 million KM2 in 2016, and at position #3 in the 44 year satellite record
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice has passed the  the false maximum in late June/ early July and the false minimum in early September, and now sea ice extent is making the final run to the maximum in late October /early November .

N.B. In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum in September.
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

& here is the maxima table from 2000 to 2022

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,765,209 KM2 as at 04-Nov-2022

- Extent gain on this day 30k, 51 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.11 million km2, 0.01 million km2 (9.6%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.12 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.41 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.76 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.23 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.22 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -0.10 million km2 LESS than 2021

- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record

On average 1.3% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 101 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2022 of 15.98 million km2, 0.43 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  19,786,553 KM2 as at 04-Nov-2022

- Area gain on this day 59k, which is 39 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 20k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 5.79 million km2, 0.23 million km2, 4.1% more than the 10 year average gain of 5.57 million km2.

- AREA is 6th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Area is  2.40 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  0.46 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  2.33 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.04 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.44 million km2 MORE than 2018
- Area is  0.14 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Area is  0.16 million km2 MORE than 2021

On average 98.6% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 0 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 19.87 million km2, 2.09 million km2 above the 2016 record low sea ice area maximum of 19.07 million km, and at position #5 in the 44 year satellite record
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,792,129 KM2 as at 05-Nov-2022

- Extent gain on this day 27k, 33 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 6k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.08 million km2, 0.04 million km2 (35.3%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.13 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.38 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.72 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.20 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.23 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -0.05 million km2 LESS than 2021

- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record

On average 1.4% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 100 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2022 of 16.02 million km2, 0.46 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  19,836,722 KM2 as at 05-Nov-2022

- Area gain on this day 50k, which is 45 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 5k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 5.84 million km2, 0.27 million km2, 4.9% more than the 10 year average gain of 5.57 million km2.

- AREA is 7th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Area is  2.35 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  0.43 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  2.35 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.11 million km2 MORE than 2017
- Area is  0.43 million km2 MORE than 2018
- Area is  0.11 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Area is  0.33 million km2 MORE than 2021

On average 100.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and -1 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 19.90 million km2, 2.12 million km2 above the 2016 record low sea ice area maximum of 19.07 million km, and at position #5 in the 44 year satellite record
___________________________________________________
This year (2022) the false maximum passed  very early on 22nd May instead of mid-June. From now average daily losses last until the false minimum in early/mid September. Sea ice Area then makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November .

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached in mid-June. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Slow Antarctic melt delaying the onset of maximum
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,833,613 KM2 as at 06-Nov-2022

- Extent gain on this day 41k, 56 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 15k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.04 million km2, 0.10 million km2 (71.6%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.14 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.31 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.65 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.20 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.20 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -0.01 million km2 LESS than 2021

- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record

On average 1.6% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 99 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2022 of 16.07 million km2, 0.52 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 4rd lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
Looks like a new maximum is on the cards (annoying)
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,834,146 KM2 as at 07-Nov-2022

- Extent gain on this day 1k, 22 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.04 million km2, 0.12 million km2 (75.7%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.16 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.30 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.63 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.22 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.19 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -0.05 million km2 LESS than 2021

- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record

On average 1.8% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 98 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2022 of 16.09 million km2, 0.54 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 4th lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,837,418 KM2 as at 08-Nov-2022

- Extent gain on this day 3k, 17 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 14k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.04 million km2, 0.14 million km2 (79.5%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.18 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.29 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.60 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.25 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.30 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -0.06 million km2 LESS than 2021

- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record

On average 2.0% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 97 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2022 of 16.11 million km2, 0.56 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 4th lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
Low daily Antarctic sea ice losses are preventing the melting season getting underway
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Mostly due to very low daily Antarctic sea ice melt, the 2022 maximum is getting seriously delayed.

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  19,954,469 KM2 as at 08-Nov-2022

- Area gain on this day 32k, which is 65 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 33k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 5.96 million km2, 0.45 million km2, 8.2% more than the 10 year average gain of 5.51 million km2.

- AREA is 7th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Area is  2.16 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  0.27 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  2.45 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.52 million km2 MORE than 2017
- Area is  0.48 million km2 MORE than 2018
- Area is  0.09 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Area is  0.68 million km2 MORE than 2021

On average 99.6% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and -4 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 19.98 million km2, 2.20 million km2 above the 2016 record low sea ice area maximum of 19.07 million km, and at position #7 in the 44 year satellite record
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,841,080 KM2 as at 09-Nov-2022

- Extent gain on this day 4k, 32 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 28k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.03 million km2, 0.17 million km2 (84.2%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.20 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.29 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.56 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.37 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.34 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -0.06 million km2 LESS than 2021

- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record

On average 2.3% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 96 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2022 of 16.14 million km2, 0.59 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 5th lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,832,239 KM2 as at 10-Nov-2022

- Extent loss on this day 9k, 23 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 32k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.04 million km2, 0.19 million km2 (82.5%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.24 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.31 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.53 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.45 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.34 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -0.08 million km2 LESS than 2021

- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record

On average 2.6% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 95 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2022 of 16.17 million km2, 0.61 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 5th lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,804,139 KM2 as at 11-Nov-2022

- Extent loss on this day 28k, 38 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 66k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.07 million km2, 0.23 million km2 (77.0%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.30 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.34 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.49 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.52 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.30 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -0.09 million km2 LESS than 2021

- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record

On average 3.4% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 94 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2022 of 16.20 million km2, 0.65 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 5th lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC data updated - but only to the 10th Nov

Global sea ice area losses in the last 2 days - maybe the maximum has been reached at 19.97 million km2 on the 8th November

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  19,937,614 KM2 as at 10-Nov-2022

- Area loss on this day 18k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 5.94 million km2, 0.51 million km2, 9.3% more than the 10 year average gain of 5.44 million km2.

- AREA is 7th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Area is  2.12 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  0.21 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  2.54 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.62 million km2 MORE than 2017
- Area is  0.46 million km2 MORE than 2018
- Area is  0.05 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Area is  0.64 million km2 MORE than 2021

On average 99.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and -6 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 19.97 million km2, 2.20 million km2 above the 2016 record low sea ice area maximum of 19.07 million km, and at position #6 in the 44 year satellite record
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,805,017 KM2 as at 12-Nov-2022

- Extent gain on this day 1k, 59 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 58k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.07 million km2, 0.29 million km2 (81.0%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.36 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.35 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.42 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.69 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.31 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -0.11 million km2 LESS than 2021

- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record

On average 4.0% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 93 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2022 of 16.26 million km2, 0.71 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 8th lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Yet again, a new maximum is on the cards - this melting season is just not happening

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,851,115 KM2 as at 13-Nov-2022

- Extent gain on this day 46k, 109 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 63k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.02 million km2, 0.40 million km2 (94.7%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.42 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.32 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.30 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.98 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.26 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -0.04 million km2 LESS than 2021

- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record

On average 4.7% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 92 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2022 of 16.37 million km2, 0.82 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 8th lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Global sea ice area continues to increase, 9 days after the average date of maximum., and on this day just a bit above the 2010's average. This has totally defeated my projections table (see 1st image attached.

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  20,046,107 KM2 as at 13-Nov-2022

- Area gain on this day 28k, which is 56 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 28k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 6.05 million km2, 0.70 million km2, 13.1% more than the 10 year average gain of 5.35 million km2.

- AREA is 7th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Area is  1.86 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  0.02 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- Area is  2.77 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.75 million km2 MORE than 2017
- Area is  0.54 million km2 MORE than 2018
- Area is  0.08 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Area is  0.71 million km2 MORE than 2021

On average 100.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and -9 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 20.05 million km2, 2.27 million km2 above the 2016 record low sea ice area maximum of 19.07 million km, and at position #7 in the 44 year satellite record
___________________________________________________
This year (2022) the false maximum passed  very early on 22nd May instead of mid-June. From now average daily losses last until the false minimum in early/mid September. Sea ice Area then makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November .

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached in mid-June. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

The very very slow Antarctic melting season has resulted in a new 2022 maximum global sea ice extent, 11 days after the average date of maximum, and 16 days after what I believed to be the date of maximum.

My analysis is in disarray.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,877,920 KM2 as at 14-Nov-2022

- Extent gain on this day 27k, 73 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 46k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.00 million km2, 0.47 million km2 (100.0%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.47 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.27 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.22 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  2.19 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.27 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -0.04 million km2 LESS than 2021

- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record

On average 5.3% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 91 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2022 of 16.44 million km2, 0.89 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 8th lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

A small sea ice extent loss on this day, so this post assumes that the melting season is belatedly underway at last (maybe).

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,871,863 KM2 as at 15-Nov-2022

- Extent loss on this day 6k, 58 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 64k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.01 million km2, 0.53 million km2 (98.9%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.53 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.24 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.18 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  2.32 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.18 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  0.03 million km2 MORE than 2021

- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

On average 6.0% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 90 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2022 of 16.50 million km2, 0.95 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 9th lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Let us assume that the maximum was reached on 8th November at 19.97 milliom km2, 7th lowest in the satellite record (but this year has brought surprises).

This post is therefore assuming we are in the melting season.

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  19,863,899 KM2 as at 15-Nov-2022

- Extent loss on this day 42k, 9 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 33k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.11 million km2, 0.32 million km2 (74.3%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.43 million km2.

- AREA is 6th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Area is  1.95 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  0.10 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  2.72 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.65 million km2 MORE than 2017
- Area is  0.39 million km2 MORE than 2018
- Area is  0.05 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  0.57 million km2 MORE than 2021

On average 7.5% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 91 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 14.51 million km2, 1.00 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 13.51 million km2, which would be 10th lowest in the satellite record.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

A second and higher sea ice extent loss on this day, so this post assumes that the melting season is belatedly underway at last (maybe).

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,785,404 KM2 as at 16-Nov-2022

- Extent loss on this day 86k, 22 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 64k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.09 million km2, 0.50 million km2 (84.5%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.60 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.30 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.20 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  2.41 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.25 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -0.01 million km2 LESS than 2021

- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record

On average 6.7% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 89 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2022 of 16.48 million km2, 0.93 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 8th lowest in the satellite record.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  19,768,665 KM2 as at 16-Nov-2022

- Extent loss on this day 80k, 38 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 42k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.21 million km2, 0.27 million km2 (56.5%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.47 million km2.

- AREA is 6th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Area is  2.01 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  0.16 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  2.75 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.64 million km2 MORE than 2017
- Area is  0.30 million km2 MORE than 2018
- Area is  0.09 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  0.51 million km2 MORE than 2021

On average 8.2% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 90 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 14.46 million km2, 0.95 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 13.51 million km2, which would be 10th lowest in the satellite record.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[Phil.]

Appears to be following the 2021 trajectory.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,670,191 KM2 as at 17-Nov-2022

- Extent loss on this day 115k, 31 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 84k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.21 million km2, 0.47 million km2 (69.5%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.68 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.38 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.24 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  2.52 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -0.30 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -0.01 million km2 LESS than 2021

- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record

On average 7.6% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 88 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2022 of 16.45 million km2, 0.90 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 8th lowest in the satellite record.
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On this day the last 7 years contain the 7 lowest daily sea ice extent values in the satelite record.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge