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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1950 on: January 28, 2023, 09:12:42 AM »
Global sea ice extent on this day, Jan 26, is already the 3rd lowest minimum in the satellite record, with just 151 k further sea ice losses to be below the record low minimum in 2018.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,702,210 KM2 as at 27-Jan-2023

- Extent loss on this day 49k, 18 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 67k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.18 million km2, 0.74 million km2 (8.8%) more than the 10 year average loss of 8.43 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.99 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.40 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -1.02 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  0.00 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  -1.40 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -1.24 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -0.90 million km2 LESS than 2022

- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record which is for 18 days this year.

On average 94.7% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 17 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 15.23 million km2, 0.32 million km2 below the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1951 on: January 28, 2023, 03:06:34 PM »
For a 2nd day 2023 Global sea ice area is at a record low minimum for the 45 year satellite record, by 30k km2. Daily area data suggests we may well see some global sea ice area gains in the next few days

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  13,481,698 KM2 as at 27-Jan-2023

- Extent loss on this day 27k, 4 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6.49 million km2, 1.08 million km2 (19.9%) more than the 10 year average loss to date of 5.41 million km2 and is 112% of the 10 year average total melt for the year

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record which is for the 16th day this year

- Area is  2.34 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.39 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.84 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Area is  0.31 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.58 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.51 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  1.03 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Area is  0.69 million km2 LESS than 2022

On average 93.6% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 18 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 13.11 million km2, 0.40 million km2 below the 2017 record low minimum of 13.51 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1952 on: January 29, 2023, 09:34:19 AM »
Global sea ice extent on this day, Jan 26, is already the 3rd lowest minimum in the satellite record, with just 134 k further sea ice losses to be below the record low minimum in 2018.

However, Global sea ice extent on this day, Jan 26, has also lost pole position to 2017.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,684,695 KM2 as at 28-Jan-2023

- Extent loss on this day 18k, 26 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 44k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.19 million km2, 0.72 million km2 (8.5%) more than the 10 year average loss of 8.48 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.99 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.37 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -0.96 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  0.03 million km2 MORE than 2017
- Extent is  -1.38 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -1.22 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -0.96 million km2 LESS than 2022

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

On average 95.2% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 16 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 15.26 million km2, 0.29 million km2 below the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1953 on: January 29, 2023, 02:05:16 PM »
For a 3rd day 2023 Global sea ice area is at a record low minimum for the 45 year satellite record, by 56k km2. Daily area data suggests even more that we may well see some modest global sea ice area gains in the next few days.

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  13,456,820 KM2 as at 28-Jan-2023

- Extent loss on this day 25k, 2 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 27k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6.52 million km2, 1.08 million km2 (19.8%) more than the 10 year average loss to date of 5.44 million km2 and is 113% of the 10 year average total melt for the year

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record which is for the 17th day this year

- Area is  2.35 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.39 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.83 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Area is  0.28 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.57 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.52 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  1.08 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Area is  0.66 million km2 LESS than 2022

On average 94.1% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 17 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 13.12 million km2, 0.40 million km2 below the 2017 record low minimum of 13.51 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1954 on: January 30, 2023, 08:24:29 AM »
Global sea ice extent on this day, Jan 26, is already the 3rd lowest minimum in the satellite record, with just 91k km2 further sea ice losses to be below the record low minimum in 2018.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,641,905 KM2 as at 29-Jan-2023

- Extent loss on this day 43k, 24 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 19k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.24 million km2, 0.74 million km2 (8.7%) more than the 10 year average loss of 8.50 million km2.

- Extent is  -3.00 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.38 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -0.96 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  0.01 million km2 MORE than 2017
- Extent is  -1.40 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -1.28 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -1.05 million km2 LESS than 2022

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

On average 95.4% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 15 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 15.24 million km2, 0.32 million km2 below the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 3st lowest in the satellite record.
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1955 on: January 30, 2023, 03:33:12 PM »
NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  13,456,829 KM2 as at 29-Jan-2023

- Extent loss on this day 0k, 23 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6.52 million km2, 1.06 million km2 (19.4%) more than the 10 year average loss to date of 5.46 million km2 and is 113% of the 10 year average total melt for the year

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record which is for the 18th day this year

- Area is  2.33 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.37 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.81 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Area is  0.23 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.54 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.50 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  1.11 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Area is  0.65 million km2 LESS than 2022

On average 94.4% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 16 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 13.14 million km2, 0.38 million km2 below the 2017 record low minimum of 13.51 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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jdallen

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1956 on: January 31, 2023, 06:02:55 AM »
More than just the lowest for the day, it looks like it may be the lowest on record for *any* day.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1957 on: January 31, 2023, 06:33:31 AM »
More than just the lowest for the day, it looks like it may be the lowest on record for *any* day.
Yes it is - posted 2 days ago
For a 3rd day 2023 Global sea ice area is at a record low minimum for the 45 year satellite record, by 56k km2.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1958 on: January 31, 2023, 06:59:14 AM »
Global sea ice extent on this day, Jan 30, is already the 2nd lowest minimum in the satellite record, with just 29k km2 further sea ice losses to be below the record low minimum in 2018.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,579,808 KM2 as at 30-Jan-2023

- Extent loss on this day 62k, 62 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 0k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.30 million km2, 0.80 million km2 (9.4%) more than the 10 year average loss of 8.50 million km2.

- Extent is  -3.04 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.42 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -0.97 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  -0.07 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  -1.50 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -1.39 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -1.13 million km2 LESS than 2022

- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record which is for 19 days this year.

On average 95.4% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 14 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 15.17 million km2, 0.38 million km2 below the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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DavidR

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1959 on: January 31, 2023, 01:43:31 PM »
The NSIDC extent record shows the past four days as the lowest extents in the record. Jan 30th is 145K below the previous record set on Feb 10, 2018.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1960 on: January 31, 2023, 10:16:24 PM »
As expected a modest global sea ice area gain on this day, which may continue for at least the next 2 or 3 days due to high(ish) recnt daily Arctic area gains and low(ish) Antarctic sea ice area losses. . However, there are very early signs of a possible turnaround of this very soon.

Basically we are in the end of season wobbles.


NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  13,468,161 KM2 as at 30-Jan-2023

- Extent gain on this day 11k, 27 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 16k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6.51 million km2, 1.04 million km2 (19.0%) more than the 10 year average loss to date of 5.47 million km2 and is 113% of the 10 year average total melt for the year

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record which is for the 19th day this year

- Area is  2.30 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.35 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.78 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Area is  0.19 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.52 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.50 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  1.13 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Area is  0.69 million km2 LESS than 2022

On average 94.6% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 15 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 13.15 million km2, 0.36 million km2 below the 2017 record low minimum of 13.51 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1961 on: February 01, 2023, 08:25:20 AM »
A small increase in global sea ice extent on this day, delaying the arrival of the expected record low minimum, which requires an additional 41k of sea ice extent losses, with just 13 days to the average date of the yearly minimum.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,592,372 KM2 as at 31-Jan-2023

- Extent gain on this day 13k, 21 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 8k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.29 million km2, 0.78 million km2 (9.2%) more than the 10 year average loss of 8.50 million km2.

- Extent is  -3.00 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.39 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -0.93 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  -0.07 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  -1.50 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -1.40 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -1.10 million km2 LESS than 2022

- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record which is for 20 days this year.

On average 95.5% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 13 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 15.19 million km2, 0.36 million km2 below the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1962 on: February 01, 2023, 11:29:56 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT: January is gone - so here is a bit more

The Jan 2023 daily extent monthly average at 16.21 million km2 is lowest in the 45 year satellite record, 1.22 million km2 below the long term linear trend and 1.07 million km2 below the Jan 2022 average.

The current projection of the 2023 annual daily sea ice extent average is based on the 10 year average daily change for the remainder of the year. This would produce another record low annual average sea ice extent of 20.11 million km2, more than 1 million km2 below the long term linear trend.

With the expected transition from La Nina to ENSO neutral in the next 2-3 months and the possibility of an El Nino in late summer projections Global sea ice change may be even more unpredictable than usual.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1963 on: February 01, 2023, 11:57:01 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: January is gone - so here is even more

The 365 day trailing average global sea ice daily extent of 31 Jan at 20.81 million km2 is 0.47 million km2 below the long term linear trend and 0.53 million km2 above the record low minimum of October 2017. This average reduced by 87k km2 during January.

If sea ice daily change for the remainder of 2023 is at the previous 10 years daily average, the 365 day average would fall by more thgan 0.6 million km2 by the end of the year, reaching a new year low late in the year.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1964 on: February 01, 2023, 10:48:24 PM »
NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  13,482,774 KM2 as at 31-Jan-2023

- Extent gain on this day 15k, 24 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 9k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6.49 million km2, 1.02 million km2 (18.7%) more than the 10 year average loss to date of 5.47 million km2 and is 112% of the 10 year average total melt for the year

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record which is for the 20th day this year

- Area is  2.28 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.32 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.75 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Area is  0.18 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.53 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.50 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  1.15 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Area is  0.70 million km2 LESS than 2022

On average 94.6% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 14 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 13.17 million km2, 0.34 million km2 below the 2017 record low minimum of 13.51 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1965 on: February 02, 2023, 07:25:41 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,641,972 KM2 as at 01-Feb-2023

- Extent gain on this day 50k, 75 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 25k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.24 million km2, 0.71 million km2 (8.3%) more than the 10 year average loss of 8.53 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.91 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.32 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -0.84 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  -0.09 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  -1.41 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -1.33 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -1.01 million km2 LESS than 2022

- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record which is for 21 days this year.

On average 95.8% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 12 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 15.27 million km2, 0.28 million km2 below the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1966 on: February 02, 2023, 05:29:05 PM »
NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  13,504,376 KM2 as at 01-Feb-2023

- Extent gain on this day 22k, 26 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 4k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6.47 million km2, 1.00 million km2 (18.4%) more than the 10 year average loss to date of 5.47 million km2 and is 112% of the 10 year average total melt for the year

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record which is for the 21th day this year

- Area is  2.25 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.30 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.72 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Area is  0.19 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.56 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.48 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  1.14 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Area is  0.70 million km2 LESS than 2022

On average 94.6% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 13 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 13.19 million km2, 0.32 million km2 below the 2017 record low minimum of 13.51 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1967 on: February 02, 2023, 05:34:18 PM »
& here is the current minima table

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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1968 on: February 02, 2023, 06:46:21 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA: now a look at AREA January results

The Jan 2023 daily area monthly average at 13.80 million km2 is lowest in the 45 year satellite record, 1.20 million km2 below the long term linear trend and 0.84 million km2 below the Jan 2022 average.

The current projection of the 2023 annual daily sea ice area average is based on the 10 year average daily change for the remainder of the year. This would produce another record low annual average sea ice Area of 16.27 million km2, 1.03 million km2 below the long term linear trend and 0.61 million km2 below that of 2022.

With the expected transition from La Nina to ENSO neutral in the next 2-3 months and the possibility of an El Nino in late summer projections Global sea ice change may be even more unpredictable than usual.

click images to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1969 on: February 02, 2023, 06:53:09 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA: more about January '23

The 365 day trailing average sea ice daily extent of 31 Jan at 16.81 million km2 is 0.61 million km2 below the long term linear trend and 0.51 million km2 above the record low minimum of October 2017. This average reduced by 70k km2 during January.

If sea ice daily change for the remainder of 2023 is at the previous 10 years daily average, the 365 day average would fall by about 0.55 million km2 by the end of the year. This means a new year low minimum is possible in late 2023, depending on the rate of sea ice losses in comparison with those in 2022..

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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1970 on: February 03, 2023, 05:50:49 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,700,697 KM2 as at 02-Feb-2023

- Extent gain on this day 59k, 72 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 13k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.18 million km2, 0.64 million km2 (7.4%) more than the 10 year average loss of 8.54 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.83 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.25 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -0.73 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  -0.06 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  -1.30 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -1.25 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -0.95 million km2 LESS than 2022

- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record which is for 22 days this year.

On average 95.9% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 11 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 15.34 million km2, 0.21 million km2 below the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1971 on: February 03, 2023, 10:13:09 PM »
NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  13,542,069 KM2 as at 02-Feb-2023

- Extent gain on this day 38k, 43 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 5k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6.43 million km2, 0.97 million km2 (17.7%) more than the 10 year average loss to date of 5.47 million km2 and is 111% of the 10 year average total melt for the year

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record which is for the 22th day this year

- Area is  2.19 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.26 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.67 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Area is  0.19 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.58 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.43 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  1.11 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Area is  0.69 million km2 LESS than 2022

On average 94.6% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 12 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 13.23 million km2, 0.29 million km2 below the 2017 record low minimum of 13.51 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

To not end the melting season with a record low global sea ice area minimum, sea ice area loss from now to the minimum must be at least 0.29 million KM2 (90.7%)  less than the 10 year average. In NONE of the last ten years has this happened.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1972 on: February 04, 2023, 07:19:04 AM »
Continuing high Arctic sea ice extent gains considerably reduce the chances of a new record low minimum this year as extent loses 1st place to 2017.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,752,593 KM2 as at 03-Feb-2023

- Extent gain on this day 52k, 73 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.13 million km2, 0.56 million km2 (6.6%) more than the 10 year average loss of 8.56 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.75 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.18 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -0.69 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  0.00 million km2 MORE than 2017
- Extent is  -1.19 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -1.20 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -0.85 million km2 LESS than 2022

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

On average 96.2% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 10 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 15.41 million km2, 0.14 million km2 below the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Alexander555

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1973 on: February 04, 2023, 08:48:31 AM »
But it's a little bit bad news for the september minimum. Higher than average temperatures in the arctic. High Fram export in december. And that extent today is part of the export. So it's probably still high. That makes the possibility higher the arctic ice is in a bad condition.

Alexander555

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1974 on: February 04, 2023, 09:09:02 AM »
And there are/were vast area's with (much) warmer water in the north pacific/ atlantic. So that export will probably be gone pretty soon.

Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1975 on: February 04, 2023, 10:17:21 AM »
Have we already seen the annual JAXA global sea ice extent on Jan 30, 2023? This would be one of the earliest global sea ice extent minima in recorded history.
I evaluated curves of the last 44 years and grouped them into three categories:
PASS: Extent decline from Feb 03 to minimum larger than 0.22 M km² → minimum will come later
IN-BETWEEN: Extent losses between 0.22 and 0.12 M km² → undecided
FAIL: Extent losses lower than 0.12 M km² → minimum has already happened on Jan 30, 2023.
I grouped the results into the different decades. The numbers indicate the numbers of years in which each individual evaluation is applicable.
               pass    in-between    fail
1979-89     9             1              1
1990-99   10             0              0
2000-09     5             3              2
2010-19     4             5              1
2020-22     2             1              0
Sum         30 (68%) 10 (23%)    4 (9%)

Summary: It is more likely than not that the global minimum will appear later. The tendency of the decades shows that this likelihood is slightly declining (percentage of "PASS" is decreasing from the 1980s into the 2010s).
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1976 on: February 05, 2023, 10:26:20 AM »
Another global sea ice extent gain continues to reduce the chances of a new record low minimum this year. Perhaps Stephan will update his table.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,764,593 KM2 as at 04-Feb-2023

- Extent gain on this day 12k, 45 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 33k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.11 million km2, 0.52 million km2 (6.0%) more than the 10 year average loss of 8.59 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.72 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.13 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -0.67 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  0.05 million km2 MORE than 2017
- Extent is  -1.15 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -1.20 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -0.80 million km2 LESS than 2022

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

On average 96.5% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 9 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 15.46 million km2, 0.09 million km2 below the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
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Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1977 on: February 05, 2023, 02:52:31 PM »
On gerontocrat's friendly invitation I repeat the evaluation on JAXA global sea ice extent.

Have we already seen the annual JAXA global sea ice extent on Jan 30, 2023? This would be one of the earliest global sea ice extent minima in recorded history.
I evaluated curves of the last 44 years and grouped them into three categories:
PASS: Extent decline from Feb 04 to minimum larger than 0.23 M km² → minimum will come later
IN-BETWEEN: Extent losses from Feb 04 to minimum between 0.23 and 0.13 M km² → undecided
FAIL: Extent losses lower than 0.13 M km² → minimum has already happened on Jan 30, 2023.
I grouped the results into the different decades. The numbers indicate the numbers of years in which each individual evaluation is applicable.

               pass    in-between    fail
1979-89     8             0              3
1990-99   10             0              0
2000-09     4             1              5
2010-19     4             3              3
2020-22     2             1              0
Sum         28 (64%)  5 (11%)   11 (25%)

Summary: It is more likely than not that the global minimum will appear later (but less likely than yesterday). The tendency of the decades shows that this likelihood is slightly declining (percentage of "PASS" is decreasing from the 1980s into the 2010s).
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1978 on: February 05, 2023, 06:40:37 PM »
It is increasingly possible that the record low minimum was reached on 28th January @ 13.46 million km2.

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  13,632,922 KM2 as at 04-Feb-2023

- Extent gain on this day 51k, 74 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6.34 million km2, 0.85 million km2 (15.4%) more than the 10 year average loss to date of 5.49 million km2 and is 110% of the 10 year average total melt for the year

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record which is for the 24th day this year

- Area is  2.08 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.16 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.51 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Area is  0.18 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.55 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.23 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  0.98 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Area is  0.61 million km2 LESS than 2022

On average 95.0% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 10 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 13.35 million km2, 0.17 million km2 below the 2017 record low minimum of 13.51 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge
« Last Edit: February 06, 2023, 03:23:49 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1979 on: February 06, 2023, 08:30:30 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,784,388 KM2 as at 05-Feb-2023

- Extent gain on this day 20k, 47 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 27k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.09 million km2, 0.47 million km2 (5.5%) more than the 10 year average loss of 8.62 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.68 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.07 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -0.68 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  0.10 million km2 MORE than 2017
- Extent is  -1.20 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -1.15 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -0.76 million km2 LESS than 2022

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

On average 96.9% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 8 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 15.50 million km2, 0.05 million km2 below the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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psymmo7

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1980 on: February 06, 2023, 11:26:02 AM »
Area - Typo alert
It is increasingly possible that the record low minimum was reached on 29th January @ 14.46 million km2.
 should read 13.47 (13.468)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1981 on: February 06, 2023, 03:22:59 PM »
Area - Typo alert
It is increasingly possible that the record low minimum was reached on 29th January @ 14.46 million km2.
 should read 13.47 (13.468)
Should read 13.46 on the 28th January ( 13,456,789)
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1982 on: February 06, 2023, 03:24:51 PM »
NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  13,676,132 KM2 as at 05-Feb-2023

- Extent gain on this day 43k, 76 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 33k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6.30 million km2, 0.78 million km2 (14.1%) more than the 10 year average loss to date of 5.52 million km2 and is 109% of the 10 year average total melt for the year

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record which is for the 25th day this year

- Area is  2.01 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.09 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.47 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Area is  0.16 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.48 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.13 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  0.89 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Area is  0.58 million km2 LESS than 2022

On average 95.8% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 9 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 13.43 million km2, 0.08 million km2 below the 2017 record low minimum of 13.51 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1983 on: February 07, 2023, 10:38:19 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,798,761 KM2 as at 06-Feb-2023

- Extent gain on this day 14k, 37 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.08 million km2, 0.43 million km2 (5.0%) more than the 10 year average loss of 8.65 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.64 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.03 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -0.74 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  0.10 million km2 MORE than 2017
- Extent is  -1.23 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -1.11 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -0.64 million km2 LESS than 2022

- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record

On average 97.2% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 7 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 15.55 million km2, 0.00 million km2 below the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1984 on: February 07, 2023, 06:46:00 PM »
Another day of global sea ice extent increase. Therefore I took a look at JAXA data to find out whether we hace already seen the annual JAXA global sea ice extent on Jan 30, 2023. This would be one of the earliest global sea ice extent minima in recorded history.
I evaluated curves of the last 44 years and grouped them into three categories:
PASS: Extent decline from Feb 06 to minimum larger than 0.27 M km² → minimum will come later
IN-BETWEEN: Extent losses from Feb 06 to minimum between 0.27 and 0.17 M km² → undecided
FAIL: Extent losses lower than 0.17 M km² → minimum has already happened on Jan 30, 2023.
I grouped the results into the different decades. The numbers indicate the numbers of years in which each individual evaluation is applicable.

               pass    in-between    fail
1979-89     5             4              2
1990-99     7             1              2
2000-09     3             1              6
2010-19     3             2              5
2020-22     3             0              0
Sum         21 (48%)  8 (18%)   15 (34%)

Summary: It is still more likely than not that the global minimum will appear later (but definitively less likely than last week). The tendency of the decades shows that this likelihood is declining (percentage of "PASS" is decreasing from the 1980s into the 2010s).
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Tigertown

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1985 on: February 09, 2023, 06:22:41 AM »
"Another day of global sea ice extent increase"
But not again today. Not looking good at all after the drop today.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Juan C. García

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1986 on: February 10, 2023, 07:31:26 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Global Sea Ice Extent.

February 9th, 2023:
      15,634,738 km2, a drop of -113,033 km2.
      The lowest minimum was establish on Feb 9, 2018...
          so 2023 is 83,958 km2 away of making a new lowest record.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. I hope that Gero is fine and we will have him back soon.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

etienne

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1987 on: February 10, 2023, 08:22:38 AM »
On the antarctic side, we already have a record low and the arctic is not very high, the global record could be breakable, but we already just had a drop two days in a row on the arctic side, so I have doubts.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2023, 08:32:51 AM by etienne »

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1988 on: February 10, 2023, 06:26:32 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,634,738 KM2 as at 09-Feb-2023

- Extent loss on this day 113k, 79 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 34k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.24 million km2, 0.53 million km2 (6.1%) more than the 10 year average loss of 8.71 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.68 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.15 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -0.85 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  -0.01 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  -1.37 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -1.20 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -0.60 million km2 LESS than 2022

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

On average 98.2% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 4 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 15.47 million km2, 0.08 million km2 below the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1989 on: February 10, 2023, 09:39:13 PM »
NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  13,669,412 KM2 as at 09-Feb-2023

- Extent loss on this day 28k, 0 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 28k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6.31 million km2, 0.67 million km2 (11.8%) more than the 10 year average loss to date of 5.64 million km2 and is 110% of the 10 year average total melt for the year

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record which is for the 29th day this year

- Area is  1.94 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  0.96 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.61 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Area is  0.10 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.09 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.15 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  0.75 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Area is  0.50 million km2 LESS than 2022

On average 98.4% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 5 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum unchanged from that of 28th January 2023 of 13.46 million km2, 0.06 million km2 below the 2017 record low minimum of 13.51 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1990 on: February 10, 2023, 09:41:56 PM »
Minima table as at now attached

click image and then maximise
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1991 on: February 11, 2023, 06:56:24 AM »
And on this day a new record low global sea ice extent minimum of 15.51 million km2, 45k km2 below the 2018 record of 15.55 million km2.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,505,443 KM2 as at 10-Feb-2023

- Extent loss on this day 129k, 103 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.37 million km2, 0.63 million km2 (7.3%) more than the 10 year average loss of 8.74 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.78 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.26 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -0.89 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  -0.12 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  -1.47 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -1.35 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -0.65 million km2 LESS than 2022

- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record which is for 23 days this year.

On average 98.5% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 3 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)
With 3 of the last 10 years having passed the date of their minimum extent and commencing refreeze, and only 3 days to the average date of minimum this projections table perhaps becomes of less use.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 15.37 million km2, 0.18 million km2 below the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
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« Last Edit: February 11, 2023, 07:08:42 AM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1992 on: February 11, 2023, 04:09:55 PM »
Given that the continuing Arctic sea ice losses are expected to continue and the Antarctic one-day data also dropped by 83k km2 on this day, there is a (lowish?) chance that global sea ice area will fall further than its own record low on 28th January.

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  13,616,293 KM2 as at 10-Feb-2023

- Extent loss on this day 53k, 23 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 30k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6.36 million km2, 0.69 million km2 (12.2%) more than the 10 year average loss to date of 5.67 million km2 and is 111% of the 10 year average total melt for the year

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record which is for the 30th day this year

- Area is  1.98 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  0.99 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.66 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Area is  0.06 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.08 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.22 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  0.78 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Area is  0.50 million km2 LESS than 2022

On average 98.8% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 4 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 13.46 million km2 9already reached on 28th Jan), 0.06 million km2 below the 2017 record low minimum of 13.51 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1993 on: February 12, 2023, 08:09:24 AM »
On Jaxa, a drop op 0.01 million sq km. Further down in the record area, at 15.5 millions sq km.

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1994 on: February 12, 2023, 08:19:49 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,502,714 KM2 as at 11-Feb-2023

- Extent loss on this day 3k, 28 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 31k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.38 million km2, 0.61 million km2 (6.9%) more than the 10 year average loss of 8.77 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.75 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.24 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -0.79 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  -0.08 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  -1.44 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -1.32 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -0.63 million km2 LESS than 2022

- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record which is for 24 days this year.

On average 98.9% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 2 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 15.41 million km2, 0.15 million km2 below the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1995 on: February 13, 2023, 08:56:18 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,586,688 KM2 as at 12-Feb-2023

- Extent gain on this day 84k, 102 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 18k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.29 million km2, 0.50 million km2 (5.7%) more than the 10 year average loss of 8.79 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.64 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.15 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -0.63 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  -0.04 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  -1.30 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -1.21 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -0.55 million km2 LESS than 2022

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

On average 99.2% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 1 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would maintain the minimum reached on 11th February 2023 of 15.50 million km2, 0.05 million km2 below the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1996 on: February 14, 2023, 01:03:07 AM »
NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  13,539,776 KM2 as at 12-Feb-2023

- Extent loss on this day 26k, 13 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 13k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6.43 million km2, 0.72 million km2 (12.7%) more than the 10 year average loss to date of 5.71 million km2 and is 112% of the 10 year average total melt for the year

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Area is  2.02 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.04 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.67 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Area is  0.00 million km2 MORE than 2017
- Area is  0.17 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.26 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  0.85 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Area is  0.48 million km2 LESS than 2022

On average 99.3% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 2 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce an unchanged minimum in February 2023 of 13.46 million km2, 0.06 million km2 below the 2017 record low minimum of 13.51 million km2, which is 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1997 on: February 14, 2023, 06:49:00 AM »
Very likely that the minimum has passed - if tomorrow produces more gains looks like the next post will look towards the 2023 maximum.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,659,277 KM2 as at 13-Feb-2023

- Extent gain on this day 73k, 64 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 9k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.22 million km2, 0.44 million km2 (5.0%) more than the 10 year average loss of 8.78 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.55 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.10 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -0.63 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  0.00 million km2 MORE than 2017
- Extent is  -1.17 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -1.11 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -0.49 million km2 LESS than 2022

- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record

On average 99.3% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 0 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce an unchanged minimum on 11th February 2023 of 15.50 million km2, 0.05 million km2 below the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1998 on: February 14, 2023, 10:26:52 PM »
Looks like the minimum happened on the 11th Feb - but I will give it one more day to see if any big change looms. Otherwise the spreadsheet shifts to the freezing season.

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  13,560,165 KM2 as at 13-Feb-2023

- Extent gain on this day 20k, 27 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 7k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6.41 million km2, 0.69 million km2 (12.1%) more than the 10 year average loss to date of 5.72 million km2 and is 112% of the 10 year average total melt for the year

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Area is  1.98 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.01 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.59 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Area is  0.05 million km2 MORE than 2017
- Area is  0.15 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.20 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  0.82 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Area is  0.44 million km2 LESS than 2022

On average 99.5% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 1 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2023 of 13.46 million km2, 0.06 million km2 below the 2017 record low minimum of 13.51 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1999 on: February 15, 2023, 08:28:55 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,734,287 KM2 as at 14-Feb-2023

- Extent gain on this day 75k, 45 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 30k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9.14 million km2, 0.40 million km2 (4.5%) more than the 10 year average loss of 8.75 million km2.

- Extent is  -2.46 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.05 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -0.57 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  -0.04 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  -1.09 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Extent is  -1.03 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -0.45 million km2 LESS than 2022

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

On average (last 10 years) the minimum was on 13th Feb - this year it looks like it happened on 11th Feb.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

It is now reasonably certain that this year's melt produced a minimum of 15.50 million km2, 0.05 million km2 below the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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