Global sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,263,979 KM2 as at 31-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 4k, which is 57 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.24 million km2, 1.35 million km2, 15.7% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.59 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 47 days this year

- Extent is  3.95 million km2 (14.5%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  2.15 million km2 (8.5%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.17 million km2  LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1.79 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1.40 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1.25 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Extent is  1.70 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1.61 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is 0.61 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 98.6% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 2 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2024 of 23.39 million km2, 0.25 million km2 below the record low November maximum of 23.64 million KM2 in 2016, and 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record
In 16 of the 19 years from 2005 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice reaches the false maximum in late June/ early July. This year the false maximum was reached on the 9th July at 22.45 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record

Then the false minimum is reached sometime between mid-August and early September.
In 2024, the false minimum was on 4th September, at 21.04 M km², 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

After that sea ice extent makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November
N.B. In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July at 23.76 million km2, 0.13 million km2 more than the November maximum of 23.64 million .
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JJAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,263,979 KM2 as at 31-Oct-2024 A look back at October

The October Monthly Average is 22.21 million km2, 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record, 1.41 million km2 below the longterm linear trend, and 0.12 million km2 below the October 2023 average.

The longterm linear trend of October global sea ice extent is a loss of 0.92 million km2 each decade.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,263,979 KM2 as at 31-Oct-2024 A look back at October

The 365 day trailing average at 31 October is 20.40 million km2, a modest decrease of of 10k km2 in the month, 0.64 million km2 below the longterm linear trend, and 0.49 million km2 above the record low of December 2023.

If daily sea ice extent change over the next 12 months is at the average of the last 10 years, the average will drop by close to 1 million km2, well below the record low of Dec 2023.

click images to enlarge

[psymmo7]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,263,979 KM2 as at 31-Oct-2024

- Extent loss on this day 4k, which is 57 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.24 million km2, 1.35 million km2, 15.7% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.59 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 47 days this year

- Extent is  3.95 million km2 (14.5%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  2.15 million km2 (8.5%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.17 million km2  LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1.79 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1.40 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1.25 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Extent is  1.70 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1.61 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is 0.61 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 98.6% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 2 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2024 of 23.39 million km2, 0.25 million km2 below the record low November maximum of 23.64 million KM2 in 2016, and 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record
In 16 of the 19 years from 2005 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice reaches the false maximum in late June/ early July. This year the false maximum was reached on the 9th July at 22.45 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record

Then the false minimum is reached sometime between mid-August and early September.
In 2024, the false minimum was on 4th September, at 21.04 M km², 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

After that sea ice extent makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November
N.B. In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July at 23.76 million km2, 0.13 million km2 more than the November maximum of 23.64 million .
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

There is something wrong with the graph and table attached to this post. The y axis values  only go up to 4 million instead of 23 and the maximum date for 2021-2023 in the table is the same. It looks as if some arctic and global values may have been inadvertantly swapped. Would you please be so kind as to check the data.

[gerontocrat]

Re JAXA Global sea ice extent 31 Oct

There is something wrong with the graph and table attached to this post. The y axis values  only go up to 4 million instead of 23 and the maximum date for 2021-2023 in the table is the same. It looks as if some arctic and global values may have been inadvertantly swapped. Would you please be so kind as to check the data.

For some unknown reason my freebie package cut off a bit of the left side of the table image (i.e. part of the y-axis). It has been corrected.

"the maximum date for 2021-2023 in the table is the same." Did you mean value of the projected maximum?
In those years (and a few others) the maximum already happened by 31 October - i.e. melt has started in those years. My projection formula says in that case the projected maximum is the current year's maximum so far, which is 23.27 million km2 on 30th October.

I used to abandon projections close to the minima and maxima simply because of their limited usefulness at those times.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  17,924,233 KM2 as at 31-Oct-2024 which is above the 2016 record low maximum

- Area gain on this day 42k, which is 18 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 60k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 3.99 million km2, 1.31 million km2, 24.8% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.30 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Area is  4.15 million km2 (18.8%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  2.19 million km2 (10.9%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.35 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  1.25 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  0.99 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Area is  1.76 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Area is  0.69 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 94% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 6 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.
_____________________________________________
The false maximum passes sometime between late May and late June. This year the false maximum was reached on the 25th May @ 18.48 million km2, which was 3rd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and very early in the year.

Then average daily losses continue until the false minimum in late August to mid September.
The 2024 false minimum was reached extremely early on July 30th at 15.63 million km2, which was 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

Sea ice Area then normally makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November.

The projected 2024 maximum is 18.24 million km2, 0.58 million km2 more than the November 2016 record low maximum of 17.67 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and 0.90 below the 3rd lowest maximum in 2023 of 19.15 million km2
_____________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  17,924,233 KM2 as at 31-Oct-2024
A look back at October

The October Monthly Average sea ice area is 17.11 million km2, 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record, 1.66 million km2 below the longterm linear trend, and 0.06 million km2 below the October 2023 average.

The longterm linear trend of October global sea ice area is a loss of 0.86 million km2 each decade.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  17,924,233 KM2 as at 31-Oct-2024
A look back at October

The 365 day trailing average sea ice area at 31 October is 16.48 million km2, a modest decrease of of 5k km2 in the month, 0.73 million km2 below the longterm linear trend, and 0.45 million km2 above the record low of December 2023.

If daily sea ice extent change over the next 12 months is at the average of the last 10 years, the average will drop by just over 1 million km2, more than 0.5 million km2 below the record low of Dec 2023.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,224,359 KM2 as at 01-Nov-2024

- Extent loss on this day 40k, which is 46 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 6k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.20 million km2, 1.39 million km2, 16.2% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.59 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 48 days this year

- Extent is  3.98 million km2 (14.6%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  2.27 million km2 (8.9%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.26 million km2  LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1.85 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1.54 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1.36 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Extent is  1.71 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1.54 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is 0.60 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 99.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 1 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2024 of 23.31 million km2, 0.32 million km2 below the record low November maximum of 23.64 million KM2 in 2016, and 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record
In 17 of the 19 years from 2005 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice reaches the false maximum in late June/ early July. This year the false maximum was reached on the 9th July at 22.45 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record

Then the false minimum is reached sometime between mid-August and early September.
In 2024, the false minimum was on 4th September, at 21.04 M km², 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

After that sea ice extent makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November
N.B. In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July at 23.76 million km2, 0.13 million km2 more than the November maximum of 23.64 million .
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  17,954,599 KM2 as at 01-Nov-2024 which is above the 2016 record low maximum

- Area gain on this day 30k, which is 25 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 55k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.02 million km2, 1.34 million km2, 25.0% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.36 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Area is  4.16 million km2 (18.8%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  2.21 million km2 (10.9%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.40 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  1.25 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.06 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Area is  1.82 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Area is  0.70 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 95% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 5 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.
_____________________________________________
The false maximum passes sometime between late May and late June. This year the false maximum was reached on the 25th May @ 18.48 million km2, which was 3rd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and very early in the year.

Then average daily losses continue until the false minimum in late August to mid September.
The 2024 false minimum was reached extremely early on July 30th at 15.63 million km2, which was 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

Sea ice Area then normally makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November.

The projected 2024 maximum is 18.21 million km2, 0.54 million km2 more than the November 2016 record low maximum of 17.67 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and 0.93 below the 3rd lowest maximum in 2023 of 19.15 million km2
_____________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

There is a good chance that the 2024 Oct/Nov maximum occurred on the 30th October at 23.27 million km2.

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,169,978 KM2 as at 02-Nov-2024

- Extent loss on this day 54k, which is 63 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 9k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.15 million km2, 1.46 million km2, 16.9% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.60 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 49 days this year

- Extent is  4.02 million km2 (14.8%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  2.36 million km2 (9.2%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.40 million km2  LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1.89 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1.72 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1.43 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Extent is  1.73 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1.58 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is 0.57 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 99.5% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 0 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2024 of 23.29 million km2, 0.34 million km2 below the record low November maximum of 23.64 million KM2 in 2016, and 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record
In 18 of the 18 years from 2006 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice reaches the false maximum in late June/ early July. This year the false maximum was reached on the 9th July at 22.45 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record

Then the false minimum is reached sometime between mid-August and early September.
In 2024, the false minimum was on 4th September, at 21.04 M km², 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

After that sea ice extent makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November
N.B. In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July at 23.76 million km2, 0.13 million km2 more than the November maximum of 23.64 million .
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[psymmo7]

In the table,  the date of the 2023 extent maximum appears to be incorrectly listed as 31 October. Surely it was 12 November, as is clearly visible in the JAXA- AA2.png image? If freeze gains continue in 2024 for as long as they did in 2023 we may still have to wait 10 days until the maximum can be called.

[gerontocrat]

In the table,  the date of the 2023 extent maximum appears to be incorrectly listed as 31 October. Surely it was 12 November, as is clearly visible in the JAXA- AA2.png image? If freeze gains continue in 2024 for as long as they did in 2023 we may still have to wait 10 days until the maximum can be called.

Well spotted, psymmo7

I was hoping to keep posting until my desktop expired. But the number of mistakes I've made recently are making me start to think again.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  17,998,883 KM2 as at 02-Nov-2024 which is above the 2016 record low maximum

- Area gain on this day 44k, which is 6 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 38k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.06 million km2, 1.33 million km2, 24.7% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.40 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Area is  4.15 million km2 (18.7%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  2.20 million km2 (10.9%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.47 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  1.22 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.13 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Area is  1.83 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Area is  0.72 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 96% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 4 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.
_____________________________________________
The false maximum passes sometime between late May and late June. This year the false maximum was reached on the 25th May @ 18.48 million km2, which was 3rd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and very early in the year.

Then average daily losses continue until the false minimum in late August to mid September.
The 2024 false minimum was reached extremely early on July 30th at 15.63 million km2, which was 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

Sea ice Area then normally makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November.

The projected 2024 maximum is 18.22 million km2, 0.55 million km2 more than the November 2016 record low maximum of 17.67 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and 0.93 below the 3rd lowest maximum in 2023 of 19.15 million km2
_____________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

It is almost certain that the 2024 Oct/Nov maximum occurred on the 30th October at 23.27 million km2.


JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,150,372 KM2 as at 03-Nov-2024

- Extent loss on this day 20k, which is 27 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 7k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.13 million km2, 1.48 million km2, 17.2% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.61 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 50 days this year

- Extent is  4.03 million km2 (14.8%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  2.40 million km2 (9.4%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.48 million km2  LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1.94 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1.82 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1.44 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Extent is  1.73 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1.58 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is 0.55 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 98.9% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 1 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2024 of 23.33 million km2, 0.31 million km2 below the record low November maximum of 23.64 million KM2 in 2016, and 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record
In 17 of the 19 years from 2005 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice reaches the false maximum in late June/ early July. This year the false maximum was reached on the 9th July at 22.45 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record

Then the false minimum is reached sometime between mid-August and early September.
In 2024, the false minimum was on 4th September, at 21.04 M km², 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

After that sea ice extent makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November
N.B. In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July at 23.76 million km2, 0.13 million km2 more than the November maximum of 23.64 million .
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  18,017,653 KM2 as at 03-Nov-2024 which is above the 2016 record low maximum

- Area gain on this day 22k, which is 9 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 31k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.08 million km2, 1.35 million km2, 24.8% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.43 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Area is  4.17 million km2 (18.8%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  2.21 million km2 (10.9%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.50 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  1.26 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.25 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Area is  1.86 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Area is  0.75 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 97% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 3 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.
_____________________________________________
The false maximum passes sometime between late May and late June. This year the false maximum was reached on the 25th May @ 18.48 million km2, which was 3rd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and very early in the year.

Then average daily losses continue until the false minimum in late August to mid September.
The 2024 false minimum was reached extremely early on July 30th at 15.63 million km2, which was 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

Sea ice Area then normally makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November.

The projected 2024 maximum is 18.16 million km2, 0.50 million km2 more than the November 2016 record low maximum of 17.67 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and 0.98 below the 3rd lowest maximum in 2023 of 19.15 million km2
_____________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,212,211 KM2 as at 04-Nov-2024

- Extent gain on this day 62k, which is 69 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 7k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.19 million km2, 1.41 million km2, 16.4% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.60 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 51 days this year

- Extent is  3.97 million km2 (14.6%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  2.31 million km2 (9.1%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.33 million km2  LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1.80 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1.79 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1.33 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Extent is  1.65 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1.55 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is 0.53 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 98.9% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 0 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2024 of 23.34 million km2, 0.30 million km2 below the record low November maximum of 23.64 million KM2 in 2016, and 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record
In 17 of the 19 years from 2005 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice reaches the false maximum in late June/ early July. This year the false maximum was reached on the 9th July at 22.45 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record

Then the false minimum is reached sometime between mid-August and early September.
In 2024, the false minimum was on 4th September, at 21.04 M km², 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

After that sea ice extent makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November
N.B. In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July at 23.76 million km2, 0.13 million km2 more than the November maximum of 23.64 million .
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  18,020,772 KM2 as at 04-Nov-2024 which is above the 2016 record low maximum

- Area gain on this day 3k, which is 18 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.08 million km2, 1.36 million km2, 25.0% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.45 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Area is  4.17 million km2 (18.8%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  2.24 million km2 (11.0%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.50 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  1.32 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.36 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Area is  1.93 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Area is  0.78 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 98% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 2 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.
_____________________________________________
The false maximum passes sometime between late May and late June. This year the false maximum was reached on the 25th May @ 18.48 million km2, which was 3rd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and very early in the year.

Then average daily losses continue until the false minimum in late August to mid September.
The 2024 false minimum was reached extremely early on July 30th at 15.63 million km2, which was 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

Sea ice Area then normally makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November.

The projected 2024 maximum is 18.14 million km2, 0.47 million km2 more than the November 2016 record low maximum of 17.67 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and 1.00 below the 3rd lowest maximum in 2023 of 19.15 million km2
_____________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

A new maximum on this day due to high Arctic sea ice extent gain

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,276,902 KM2 as at 05-Nov-2024

- Extent gain on this day 65k, which is 57 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 8k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.25 million km2, 1.36 million km2, 15.8% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.61 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 52 days this year

- Extent is  3.89 million km2 (14.3%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  2.23 million km2 (8.8%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.31 million km2  LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1.77 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1.65 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1.17 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Extent is  1.57 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1.52 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is 0.52 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 99.1% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 1 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2024 of 23.35 million km2, 0.28 million km2 below the record low November maximum of 23.64 million KM2 in 2016, and 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record
In 17 of the 19 years from 2005 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice reaches the false maximum in late June/ early July. This year the false maximum was reached on the 9th July at 22.45 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record

Then the false minimum is reached sometime between mid-August and early September.
In 2024, the false minimum was on 4th September, at 21.04 M km², 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

After that sea ice extent makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November
N.B. In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July at 23.76 million km2, 0.13 million km2 more than the November maximum of 23.64 million .
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  18,009,083 KM2 as at 05-Nov-2024 which is above the 2016 record low maximum

- Area loss on this day 12k, which is 23 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 11k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.07 million km2, 1.39 million km2, 25.4% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.46 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Area is  4.18 million km2 (18.8%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  2.27 million km2 (11.2%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.46 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  1.40 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.47 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Area is  1.99 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Area is  0.82 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 98% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 1 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.
_____________________________________________
The false maximum passes sometime between late May and late June. This year the false maximum was reached on the 25th May @ 18.48 million km2, which was 3rd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and very early in the year.

Then average daily losses continue until the false minimum in late August to mid September.
The 2024 false minimum was reached extremely early on July 30th at 15.63 million km2, which was 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

Sea ice Area then normally makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November.

The projected 2024 maximum is 18.10 million km2, 0.44 million km2 more than the November 2016 record low maximum of 17.67 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and 1.04 below the 3rd lowest maximum in 2023 of 19.15 million km2
_____________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,318,586 KM2 as at 06-Nov-2024

- Extent gain on this day 42k, which is 39 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 3k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.30 million km2, 1.32 million km2, 15.3% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.61 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 53 days this year

- Extent is  3.83 million km2 (14.1%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  2.16 million km2 (8.5%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.32 million km2  LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1.75 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1.48 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1.08 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Extent is  1.52 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1.52 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is 0.55 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 99.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 2 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2024 of 23.38 million km2, 0.26 million km2 below the record low November maximum of 23.64 million KM2 in 2016, and 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record
In 17 of the 19 years from 2005 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice reaches the false maximum in late June/ early July. This year the false maximum was reached on the 9th July at 22.45 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record

Then the false minimum is reached sometime between mid-August and early September.
In 2024, the false minimum was on 4th September, at 21.04 M km², 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

After that sea ice extent makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November
N.B. In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July at 23.76 million km2, 0.13 million km2 more than the November maximum of 23.64 million .
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  17,977,837 KM2 as at 06-Nov-2024 which is above the 2016 record low maximum

- Area loss on this day 31k, which is 32 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 1k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.04 million km2, 1.42 million km2, 26.0% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.46 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Area is  4.20 million km2 (18.9%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  2.30 million km2 (11.3%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.42 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  1.46 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.58 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Area is  2.07 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Area is  0.89 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 99% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 0 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.
_____________________________________________
The false maximum passes sometime between late May and late June. This year the false maximum was reached on the 25th May @ 18.48 million km2, which was 3rd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and very early in the year.

Then average daily losses continue until the false minimum in late August to mid September.
The 2024 false minimum was reached extremely early on July 30th at 15.63 million km2, which was 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

Sea ice Area then normally makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November.

The projected 2024 maximum is 18.08 million km2, 0.41 million km2 more than the November 2016 record low maximum of 17.67 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and 1.07 below the 3rd lowest maximum in 2023 of 19.15 million km2
_____________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,305,640 KM2 as at 07-Nov-2024

- Extent loss on this day 13k, which is 17 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 4k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.28 million km2, 1.34 million km2, 15.5% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.62 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 54 days this year

- Extent is  3.83 million km2 (14.1%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  2.16 million km2 (8.5%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.31 million km2  LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1.80 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1.40 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1.12 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Extent is  1.57 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1.53 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is 0.63 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 99.4% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 3 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2024 of 23.36 million km2, 0.27 million km2 below the record low November maximum of 23.64 million KM2 in 2016, and 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record
In 18 of the 19 years from 2005 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice reaches the false maximum in late June/ early July. This year the false maximum was reached on the 9th July at 22.45 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record

Then the false minimum is reached sometime between mid-August and early September.
In 2024, the false minimum was on 4th September, at 21.04 M km², 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

After that sea ice extent makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November
N.B. In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July at 23.76 million km2, 0.13 million km2 more than the November maximum of 23.64 million .
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  17,983,210 KM2 as at 07-Nov-2024 which is above the 2016 record low maximum

- Area gain on this day 5k, which is 3 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 2k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.05 million km2, 1.41 million km2, 25.9% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.46 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Area is  4.16 million km2 (18.8%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  2.29 million km2 (11.3%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.42 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  1.48 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.63 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Area is  2.11 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Area is  0.94 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 99% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 1 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.
_____________________________________________
The false maximum passes sometime between late May and late June. This year the false maximum was reached on the 25th May @ 18.48 million km2, which was 3rd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and very early in the year.

Then average daily losses continue until the false minimum in late August to mid September.
The 2024 false minimum was reached extremely early on July 30th at 15.63 million km2, which was 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

Sea ice Area then normally makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November.

The projected 2024 maximum is 18.06 million km2, 0.39 million km2 more than the November 2016 record low maximum of 17.67 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and 1.09 below the 3rd lowest maximum in 2023 of 19.15 million km2
_____________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,309,751 KM2 as at 08-Nov-2024

- Extent gain on this day 4k, which is 6 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 10k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.29 million km2, 1.34 million km2, 15.5% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.63 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 55 days this year

- Extent is  3.81 million km2 (14.1%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  2.13 million km2 (8.4%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.28 million km2  LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1.72 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1.46 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1.11 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Extent is  1.58 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1.53 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is 0.73 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 99.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 4 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2024 of 23.35 million km2, 0.29 million km2 below the record low November maximum of 23.64 million KM2 in 2016, and 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record
In 18 of the 19 years from 2005 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice reaches the false maximum in late June/ early July. This year the false maximum was reached on the 9th July at 22.45 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record

Then the false minimum is reached sometime between mid-August and early September.
In 2024, the false minimum was on 4th September, at 21.04 M km², 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

After that sea ice extent makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November
N.B. In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July at 23.76 million km2, 0.13 million km2 more than the November maximum of 23.64 million .
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  18,031,841 KM2 as at 08-Nov-2024 which is above the 2016 record low maximum

- Area gain on this day 49k, which is 49 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 0k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.10 million km2, 1.37 million km2, 25.0% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.46 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Area is  4.09 million km2 (18.5%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  2.21 million km2 (10.9%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.48 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  1.44 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.60 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Area is  2.11 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Area is  0.98 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 99% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 2 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.
_____________________________________________
The false maximum passes sometime between late May and late June. This year the false maximum was reached on the 25th May @ 18.48 million km2, which was 3rd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and very early in the year.

Then average daily losses continue until the false minimum in late August to mid September.
The 2024 false minimum was reached extremely early on July 30th at 15.63 million km2, which was 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

Sea ice Area then normally makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November.

The projected 2024 maximum is 18.07 million km2, 0.40 million km2 more than the November 2016 record low maximum of 17.67 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and 1.08 below the 3rd lowest maximum in 2023 of 19.15 million km2
_____________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,343,053 KM2 as at 09-Nov-2024

- Extent gain on this day 33k, which is 46 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 13k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.32 million km2, 1.30 million km2, 15.0% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.61 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 56 days this year

- Extent is  3.79 million km2 (14.0%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  2.06 million km2 (8.1%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.13 million km2  LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1.70 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1.46 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1.00 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Extent is  1.56 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1.50 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is 0.81 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 99.8% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 5 days after the average date of the maximum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2024 of 23.36 million km2, 0.27 million km2 below the record low November maximum of 23.64 million KM2 in 2016, and 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record
In 18 of the 19 years from 2005 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice reaches the false maximum in late June/ early July. This year the false maximum was reached on the 9th July at 22.45 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record

Then the false minimum is reached sometime between mid-August and early September.
In 2024, the false minimum was on 4th September, at 21.04 M km², 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

After that sea ice extent makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November
N.B. In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July at 23.76 million km2, 0.13 million km2 more than the November maximum of 23.64 million .
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  18,119,543 KM2 as at 09-Nov-2024 which is above the 2016 record low maximum

- Area gain on this day 88k, which is 95 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 7k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.18 million km2, 1.27 million km2, 23.3% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.45 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Area is  3.97 million km2 (18.0%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  2.09 million km2 (10.3%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.61 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  1.36 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.52 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Area is  2.01 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Area is  0.96 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 99% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 3 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.
_____________________________________________
The false maximum passes sometime between late May and late June. This year the false maximum was reached on the 25th May @ 18.48 million km2, which was 3rd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and very early in the year.

Then average daily losses continue until the false minimum in late August to mid September.
The 2024 false minimum was reached extremely early on July 30th at 15.63 million km2, which was 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

Sea ice Area then normally makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November.

The projected 2024 maximum is 18.15 million km2, 0.48 million km2 more than the November 2016 record low maximum of 17.67 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and 1.00 below the 3rd lowest maximum in 2023 of 19.15 million km2
_____________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,439,884 KM2 as at 10-Nov-2024

Very high Arctic sea ice extent gains and low Antarctic sea ice extent losses delay the Oct/Nov maximum.

- Extent gain on this day 97k, which is 130 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 33k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.42 million km2, 1.17 million km2, 13.6% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.58 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Extent is  3.70 million km2 (13.6%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  1.92 million km2 (7.6%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.06 million km2  MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1.54 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1.34 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  0.79 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Extent is  1.47 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1.39 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is 0.74 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 99.9% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 6 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2024 of 23.45 million km2, 0.19 million km2 below the record low November maximum of 23.64 million KM2 in 2016, and 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record
In 18 of the 19 years from 2005 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice reaches the false maximum in late June/ early July. This year the false maximum was reached on the 9th July at 22.45 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record

Then the false minimum is reached sometime between mid-August and early September.
In 2024, the false minimum was on 4th September, at 21.04 M km², 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

After that sea ice extent makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November
N.B. In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July at 23.76 million km2, 0.13 million km2 more than the November maximum of 23.64 million .
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  18,233,241 KM2 as at 10-Nov-2024 which is above the 2016 record low maximum

- Area gain on this day 114k, which is 129 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 15k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.30 million km2, 1.14 million km2, 21.0% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.44 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Area is  3.82 million km2 (17.3%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.93 million km2 (9.6%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.78 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  1.24 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.41 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Area is  1.88 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Area is  0.89 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 100% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 6 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.
_____________________________________________
The false maximum passes sometime between late May and late June. This year the false maximum was reached on the 25th May @ 18.48 million km2, which was 3rd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and very early in the year.

Then average daily losses continue until the false minimum in late August to mid September.
The 2024 false minimum was reached extremely early on July 30th at 15.63 million km2, which was 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

Sea ice Area then normally makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November.

The projected 2024 maximum is 18.25 million km2, 0.59 million km2 more than the November 2016 record low maximum of 17.67 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and 0.89 below the 3rd lowest maximum in 2023 of 19.15 million km2
_____________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,489,326 KM2 as at 11-Nov-2024

- Extent gain on this day 49k, which is 106 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 57k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.47 million km2, 1.06 million km2, 12.4% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.53 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Extent is  3.66 million km2 (13.5%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  1.81 million km2 (7.1%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.20 million km2  MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1.36 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1.26 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  0.62 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Extent is  1.41 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1.31 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is 0.70 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 99.9% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 7 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2024 of 23.50 million km2, 0.14 million km2 below the record low November maximum of 23.64 million KM2 in 2016, and 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record
In 18 of the 19 years from 2005 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice reaches the false maximum in late June/ early July. This year the false maximum was reached on the 9th July at 22.45 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record

Then the false minimum is reached sometime between mid-August and early September.
In 2024, the false minimum was on 4th September, at 21.04 M km², 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

After that sea ice extent makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November
N.B. In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July at 23.76 million km2, 0.13 million km2 more than the November maximum of 23.64 million .
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[oren]

150k more for extent to pass the 2016 Oct-Nov maximum.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  18,371,106 KM2 as at 11-Nov-2024 which is above the 2016 record low maximum

- Area gain on this day 138k, which is 154 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 16k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.44 million km2, 0.99 million km2, 18.2% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.42 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Area is  3.63 million km2 (16.5%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.75 million km2 (8.7%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  0.95 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  1.13 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.24 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Area is  1.73 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Area is  0.77 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 100% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 5 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.
_____________________________________________
The false maximum passes sometime between late May and late June. This year the false maximum was reached on the 25th May @ 18.48 million km2, which was 3rd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and very early in the year.

Then average daily losses continue until the false minimum in late August to mid September.
The 2024 false minimum was reached extremely early on July 30th at 15.63 million km2, which was 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

Sea ice Area then normally makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November.

The projected 2024 maximum is 18.39 million km2, 0.73 million km2 more than the November 2016 record low maximum of 17.67 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and 0.75 below the 3rd lowest maximum in 2023 of 19.15 million km2
_____________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,473,349 KM2 as at 12-Nov-2024

Oct/Nov max reached on 11th November?

- Extent loss on this day 16k, which is 26 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 42k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.45 million km2, 1.03 million km2, 12.2% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.48 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Extent is  3.69 million km2 (13.6%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  1.75 million km2 (6.9%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.36 million km2  MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1.22 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1.21 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  0.61 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Extent is  1.44 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1.33 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is 0.78 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 100.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 8 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2024 of 23.49 million km2, 0.15 million km2 below the record low November maximum of 23.64 million KM2 in 2016, and 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record
In 18 of the 19 years from 2005 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice reaches the false maximum in late June/ early July. This year the false maximum was reached on the 9th July at 22.45 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record

Then the false minimum is reached sometime between mid-August and early September.
In 2024, the false minimum was on 4th September, at 21.04 M km², 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

After that sea ice extent makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November
N.B. In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July at 23.76 million km2, 0.13 million km2 more than the November maximum of 23.64 million .
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  18,481,973 KM2 as at 12-Nov-2024 which is above the 2016 record low maximum

- Area gain on this day 111k, which is 134 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.55 million km2, 0.85 million km2, 15.8% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.40 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Area is  3.47 million km2 (15.8%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.60 million km2 (8.0%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  1.09 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  1.03 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.05 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Area is  1.62 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Area is  0.65 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 100% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 7 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.
_____________________________________________
The false maximum passes sometime between late May and late June. This year the false maximum was reached on the 25th May @ 18.48 million km2, which was 3rd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and very early in the year.

Then average daily losses continue until the false minimum in late August to mid September.
The 2024 false minimum was reached extremely early on July 30th at 15.63 million km2, which was 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

Sea ice Area then normally makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November.

The projected 2024 maximum is 18.48 million km2, 0.82 million km2 more than the November 2016 record low maximum of 17.67 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and 0.66 below the 3rd lowest maximum in 2023 of 19.15 million km2
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,405,162 KM2 as at 13-Nov-2024

Maybe at last the maximum occurred on 11 November at 23.49 million km2

- Extent loss on this day 68k, which is 13 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 55k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.38 million km2, 1.05 million km2, 12.4% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.43 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Extent is  3.76 million km2 (13.8%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  1.75 million km2 (7.0%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.54 million km2  MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1.15 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1.22 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  0.67 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Extent is  1.49 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1.45 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is 0.79 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 100.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 9 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2024 of 23.49 million km2, 0.15 million km2 below the record low November maximum of 23.64 million KM2 in 2016, and 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record
In 18 of the 19 years from 2005 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice reaches the false maximum in late June/ early July. This year the false maximum was reached on the 9th July at 22.45 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record

Then the false minimum is reached sometime between mid-August and early September.
In 2024, the false minimum was on 4th September, at 21.04 M km², 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

After that sea ice extent makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November
N.B. In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July at 23.76 million km2, 0.13 million km2 more than the November maximum of 23.64 million .
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  18,534,876 KM2 as at 13-Nov-2024 which is above the 2016 record low maximum

- Area gain on this day 53k, which is 91 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 38k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 4.60 million km2, 0.76 million km2, 14.2% less than the 10 year average gain of 5.36 million km2.

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Area is  3.38 million km2 (15.4%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.51 million km2 (7.5%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  1.20 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.97 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  0.89 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Area is  1.53 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Area is  0.54 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 100% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 8 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.
_____________________________________________
The false maximum passes sometime between late May and late June. This year the false maximum was reached on the 25th May @ 18.48 million km2, which was 3rd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and very early in the year.

Then average daily losses continue until the false minimum in late August to mid September.
The 2024 false minimum was reached extremely early on July 30th at 15.63 million km2, which was 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

Sea ice Area then normally makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November.

The projected 2024 maximum is 18.53 million km2, 0.87 million km2 more than the November 2016 record low maximum of 17.67 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, and 0.61 below the 3rd lowest maximum in 2023 of 19.15 million km2
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,317,295 KM2 as at 14-Nov-2024

- Extent loss on this day 88k, which is 46 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 42k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.29 million km2, 1.09 million km2, 13.0% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.39 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

- Extent is  3.83 million km2 (14.1%) LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  1.78 million km2 (7.1%) LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.63 million km2  MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1.14 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1.25 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  0.69 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Extent is  1.60 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1.56 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is 0.80 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 100.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 10 days after the average date of the maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

With fair confidence I state the maximum in November 2024 was 23.49 million km2 on 11th November, 0.15 million km2 below the record low November maximum of 23.64 million KM2 in 2016, and 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record.

This was 8 days later than the average date of 3rd November
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice reaches the false maximum in late June/ early July. This year the false maximum was reached on the 9th July at 22.45 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record

Then the false minimum is reached sometime between mid-August and early September.
In 2024, the false minimum was on 4th September, at 21.04 M km², 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record

After that sea ice extent makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November
N.B. In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July at 23.76 million km2, 0.13 million km2 more than the November maximum of 23.64 million .
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Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,272,545 KM2 as at 15-Nov-2024


With complete? confidence I state the JAXA sea ice extent maximum in November 2024 was 23.49 million km2 on 11th November, 0.15 million km2 (0.6%) below the record low November maximum of 23.64 million KM2 in 2016, and 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record.

This was 0.76 million km2 (3.2%) below the 2023 maximum which is now 3rd lowest in the satellite record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,272,545 KM2 as at 15-Nov-2024

- Extent loss on this day 45k, 11 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 56k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.22 million km2, 0.23 million km2 (51.2%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.44 million km2.

- Extent is  -3.84 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.77 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.72 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -1.08 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  -1.25 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  -1.57 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -1.60 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is  -0.90 million km2 LESS than 2023

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record (#1 = lowest)

On average 5.0% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 89 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2025 of 14.82 million km2, 0.69 million km2 below the 2023 record low minimum of 15.50 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  18,501,369 KM2 as at 15-Nov-2024


With some trepidation, I am calling the 2024 sea ice area Oct/Nov maximum for 2024 at 18.54 million km2 on 14th November, some 10 days after the average date.

This maximum is 2nd lowest in the 46 year satellite record, 0.87 million km2 above the record low of 2016, and 0.61 million km2 below the 3rd lowest maximum of 2023.

[gerontocrat]

First posting of the 2024-25 Melting season

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  18,501,369 KM2 as at 15-Nov-2024

- Area loss on this day 37k, 12 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 49k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 0.04 million km2, 0.34 million km2 (90.1%) less than the 10 year average loss to date of 0.37 million km2

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Area is  3.31 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.48 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  1.30 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.78 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  0.97 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.41 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  0.79 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Area is  1.49 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Area is  0.46 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 6.5% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 91 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2024 of 13.13 million km2, 0.32 million km2 below the 2023 record low minimum of 13.46 million km2, which would be 1th lowest in the satellite record.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[kiwichick16]

the 25 years with the lowest global ice area , have all been since 2000

[Renerpho]

the 25 years with the lowest global ice area , have all been since 2000

Is that true? I think 1995 and 1996 had low extent; did they have lower area, too?

[kiwichick16]

@  Ren ......just going by the table as presented   

[gerontocrat]

@  Ren ......just going by the table as presented   

The table as presented only went back to the year 2000.

Here is an amended table going back to 1979, which does show 1995 as having a fairly low Nov maximum.

click image twice for fullsize.

[kiwichick16]

Cool    ....the lowest 10 years have all been since 2007   

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,168,565 KM2 as at 16-Nov-2024

- Extent loss on this day 104k, 41 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 63k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.32 million km2, 0.19 million km2 (36.8%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.51 million km2.

- Extent is  -3.92 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.82 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  0.79 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -1.08 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  -1.31 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  -1.63 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -1.62 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is  -1.01 million km2 LESS than 2023

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record (#1 = lowest)

On average 5.7% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 88 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2025 of 14.78 million km2, 0.73 million km2 below the 2023 record low minimum of 15.50 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the 47 year satellite record.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  18,429,315 KM2 as at 16-Nov-2024

- Area loss on this day 72k, 14 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 58k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 0.11 million km2, 0.32 million km2 (74.8%) less than the 10 year average loss to date of 0.43 million km2

- AREA is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Area is  3.35 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Area is  1.52 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  1.35 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Area is  0.77 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Area is  1.04 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Area is  1.43 million km2 LESS than 2020
- Area is  0.83 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Area is  1.49 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Area is  0.50 million km2 LESS than 2023

On average 7.5% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 90 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2024 of 13.12 million km2, 0.34 million km2 below the 2023 record low minimum of 13.46 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,152,015 KM2 as at 17-Nov-2024

- Extent loss on this day 17k, 81 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 98k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.34 million km2, 0.27 million km2 (44.3%) less than the 10 year average loss of 0.61 million km2.

- Extent is  -3.90 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -1.76 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.01 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Extent is  -1.03 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  -1.28 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  -1.53 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  -1.52 million km2 LESS than 2022
- Extent is  -0.95 million km2 LESS than 2023

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record (#1 = lowest)

On average 6.8% of sea ice loss from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 87 days to minimum.

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2025 of 14.86 million km2, 0.65 million km2 below the 2023 record low minimum of 15.50 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the 47 year satellite record.
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N.B. Click an image to enlarge